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Sylvester

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Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« on: May 18, 2012, 13:46 »
As I couldn't get to sleep last night due to the excitement of the AMGEN Tour of California, I decided to simulate the Giro by throwing dice in Excel (I'm glad my girlfriend doesn't read this forum). Every km of a tappa equates to a dice roll in the game. In case of an ex aequo for 1st place, an additional dice roll determines the winner.

I like the utter randomness of the stage results thus far:

Stage: 1 - 5 May : Herning ITT, 8 km: 1. Leezer 39 2. Brown 3. Montaguti; maglia rosa: Leezer
Stage: 2 - 6 May : Herning, 206 km: 1. Vanendert 808 2. Bono 3. Casar; maglia rosa: Vanendert
Stage: 3 - 7 May : Horsens, 190 km: 1. Barta 725 2. Bulgac 3. Mazzanti; maglia rosa: Meier
Stage: 4 - 9 May : Verona TTT ITT, 32 km: 1. Beppu 150 2. Rasch 3. Demare; maglia rosa: Meier
Stage: 5 - 10 May : Modena - Fano, 209 km: 1. Eisel 794 2. Garate 3. Vicioso; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 6 - 11 May : Urbino - Porto Sant'Elpidio, 210 km: 1. Barta (cannibal!) 751 2. Capecchi 3. Cataldo; maglia rosa: Perget
Stage: 7 - 12 May : Recanati - Rocca di Cambio, 205 km: 1. Bonnet 778 2. Ulissi 3. Capecchi; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 8 - 13 May : Sulmona - Lago Laceno, 229 km: 1. Niermann 867 2. Smukulis 3. Izagirre; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 9 - 14 May : San Giorgio nel Sannio - Frosinone, 166 km: 1. Bodnar 657 2. Marczynski 3. Bakelants; maglia rosa: Pauwels

The GC now looks like this:

Code: [Select]
1 Pauwels 5303
2 Perget 5273
3 Meier 5264
4 Barta 5255
5 Nieve 5247
6 Casar 5244
7 Smukulis 5241
8 Stetina 5226
9 Mourey 5215
10 Pietropolli 5215
11 Izagirre 5214
12 Marczynski 5208
13 Bodnar 5207
14 Carrara 5206
15 Capecchi 5200
16 Kuschynski 5199
17 Tiralongo 5195
18 Rujano 5194
19 Hermans 5194
20 Pardilla 5194
24 Schleck 5177
29 Pinotti 5162
36 Scarponi 5155
42 Henao 5149
73 Jo. Rodriguez 5123
97 Basso 5104
98 Pozzovivo 5104
102 Pirazzi 5100
118 Goss 5084
122 Moreno 5082
131 Hesjedal 5073
132 Szmyd 5073
135 Cavendish 5071
137 De Gendt 5069
138 Slagter 5069
144 Cunego 5064
146 Pozzato 5060
147 Gadret 5059
148 Hushovd 5059
151 Farrar 5056
161 Cataldo 5043
166 Uran 5040
172 Intxausti 5024
182 Phinney 5007
183 Kreuziger 5005
198 Thomas 4885


As we all love silly games, I might as well try to develop this game, make it somewhat interactive, (incorporating mountains, TTT's, etc., maybe even trying to get more realistic results) in view of the TdF. I don't know how, but maybe you guys do. Meanwhile I'll keep you posted: will SERGE PAUWELS retain his slim lead? Will JAN BARTA win yet another stage? And may we expect some TOTAL RUJANO DOMINATION during the last "week"?

Sylvester

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Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2012, 14:26 »
Stage: 10 - 15 May : Civitavecchia - Assisi, 186 km: 1. Mazzanti 711 2. Kwiatkowski 3. Maes; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 11 - 16 May : Assisi - Montecatini Terme, 255 km: 1. Gustov 975 2. Velasco 3. Oroz; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 12 - 17 May : Seravezza - Sestri Levante, 155 km: 1. Basso 600 2. Bonnet 3. Rabottini; maglia rosa: Pauwels

Mazzanti bests 2 OPQS riders in Assisi and Gustov makes Euskaltel cry in Montecatini Terme (important stage for this game); Basso wins in Sestri Levante!

Pauwels does great in Assisi and Montecatini Terme, less so in Sestri Levante. Nevertheless, he's still in the lead:

Code: [Select]
1 Pauwels 7441
2 Perget 7405
3 Casar 7378
4 Barta 7356
5 Smukulis 7349
6 Stetina 7348
7 Tiralongo 7348
8 Nieve 7337
9 Roberts 7326
10 Marczynski 7326
11 Mazzanti 7325
12 Meier 7322
13 Mourey 7317
14 Txurruka 7309
15 Pietropolli 7307
16 Capecchi 7305
17 Oliveira 7304
18 Cabedo 7295
19 Velasco 7288
20 Izagirre 7288
21 Rujano 7286
25 Bennati 7269
26 Schleck 7267
37 Scarponi 7254
39 Basso 7253
43 Pinotti 7250
68 Pirazzi 7218
78 Slagter 7205
96 Szmyd 7184
110 Jo. Rodriguez 7170
111 Henao 7170
116 Hushovd 7169
119 Uran 7167
123 Pozzovivo 7164
127 Moreno 7155
132 Goss 7149
139 Cavendish 7144
141 Cunego 7143
144 Hesjedal 7142
152 Visconti 7132
155 Gadret 7127
157 Farrar 7125
159 De Gendt 7123
162 Kreuziger 7117
179 Intxausti 7079
183 Pozzato 7066
190 Cataldo 7042
192 Phinney 7027
197 Ballan 6997
198 Thomas 6972

Sylvester

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Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2012, 14:59 »
Stage: 13 - 18 May : Savona - Cervere, 121 km: 1. Bandiera 497 2. Dyachenko 3. Velasco; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 14 - 19 May : Cherasco - Cervinia, 206 km: 1. Leezer 772 (+4) 2. Stannard 3. Bak; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 15 - 20 May : Busto Arsizio - Lecco / Pian dei Resinelli, 169 km: 1. Samoilau 2. Vande Velde 3. Txurruka; maglia rosa: Pauwels

Bandiera wins today's stage by a country mile; you heard it here first! Leezer beats Stannard in Cervinia after an extra dice roll and wins his second stage, Samoilau wins in Lecco after a very close race. Pauwels grabs a 7th place in Cervinia and extends his lead; Txurruka moves up to third place overall.

Top 50 on GC:

Spoiler (hover to show)

Sylvester

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Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2012, 15:28 »
Stage: 16 - 22 May : Limone sul Garda - Falzes / Pfalzen, 173.00 km: 1. Vicioso 684 2. Niermann 3. Moreno; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 17 - 23 May : Falzes / Pfalzen - Cortina d'Ampezzo, 186.00 km: 1. Lund 713 2. Visconti 3. Favilli; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 18 - 24 May : San Vito di Cadore - Vedelago, 149.00 km: 1. Lagutin 583 2. LS Haedo 3. Bruseghin; maglia rosa: Pauwels

Vicioso, Lund and Lagutin are our stage winners. None of them is a real threat on GC. It's a two horse race until the end as Pauwels and Perget battle for the Giro, unless they crack big time on the Stelvio. With only 447 dice rolls remaining it looks as if Pauwels has almost got it in the bag, while some 30 riders battle it out for third place:

Code: [Select]
1 Pauwels 11002
2 Perget 10960
3 Roberts 10878
4 Izagirre 10863
5 Txurruka 10859
6 Casar 10856
7 Oliveira 10851
8 Scarponi 10848
9 Lagutin 10848
10 Barta 10847
11 Nieve 10845
12 Marczynski 10845
13 Capecchi 10843
14 Leezer 10838
15 Denifl 10837
16 Gustov 10827
17 Vandevelde 10822
18 Schleck 10821
19 Niermann 10819
20 Velasco 10817
21 Rasch 10815
22 Meier 10812
23 Tiralongo 10812
24 Soupe 10809
25 Agnoli 10809
26 Cabedo 10808
27 Mourey 10805
28 Stetina 10804
29 Pietropolli 10800
30 Bruseghin 10799
31 Ventoso 10798
32 Brambilla 10797
33 Bodnar 10796
34 Smukulis 10796
35 Beppu 10796
36 Bandiera 10795
37 Vicioso 10794
38 Rosseler 10793
39 Rujano 10791
40 LS Haedo 10791
41 Hermans 10791
42 Kwiatkowski 10791
43 Guardini 10791
44 Seubert 10790
45 Pirazzi 10783
46 Mazzanti 10772
47 Minguez 10771
48 Bonnet 10770
49 Rohregger 10770
50 Hunter 10769
198 Vaitkus 10388


Sylvester

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Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2012, 21:56 »
Stage: 19 - 25 May : Treviso - Alpe di Pampeago / Val di Fiemme, 198 km: 1. Roberts 756 2. Malori 3. Rasch; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 20 - 26 May : Caldes / Val di Sole - Passo dello Stelvio, 219 km: 1. Dupont 845 2. Zeits 3. Henao; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 21 - 27 May : Milano ITT, 30 km: 1. Golas 134 2. Keukeleire 3. Bérard

3rd placed Luke Roberts puts some pressure on Serge Pauwels by winning the Pampeago stage but the Australian fades on the Stelvio. Dupont wins the queen stage. Golas convincingly beats Keukeleire in the last ITT as Pauwels secures the Giro win  :win Roberts holds on to second place ahead of Perget; Scarponi moves up to sixth.

Final GC:

Code: [Select]
1 Pauwels 12578
2 Roberts 12499
3 Perget 12494
4 Lagutin 12474
5 Barta 12462
6 Scarponi 12443
7 Vandevelde 12440
8 Rasch 12436
9 Bandiera 12421
10 Niermann 12417
11 Velasco 12412
12 Cabedo 12411
13 Agnoli 12408
14 Izagirre 12407
15 Marczynski 12406
16 Caruso 12403
17 Brambilla 12402
18 Beppu 12398
19 Ventoso 12397
20 Rosseler 12397
21 Txurruka 12396
22 Oliveira 12392
23 LS Haedo 12391
24 Mazzanti 12391
25 Leezer 12389
26 Rabottini 12387
27 Nieve 12386
28 Soupe 12386
29 Mourey 12378
30 Meier 12375
31 Gustov 12373
32 Schillinger 12373
33 Pietropolli 12371
34 Denifl 12369
35 Capecchi 12368
36 Casar 12368
37 Dupont 12365
38 Renshaw 12364
39 Seubert 12364
40 Rohregger 12364
41 Rubiano 12363
42 Kwiatkowski 12362
43 Schleck 12361
44 Bruseghin 12361
45 Ja. Rodriguez 12360
46 Tiralongo 12360
47 Lastras 12354
48 Vermote 12351
49 Navardauskas 12349
50 Smukulis 12347
51 Vicioso 12346
52 Maes 12341
53 Guardini 12341
54 Stetina 12340
55 Hermans 12339
56 Bonnet 12338
57 Kennaugh 12336
58 Bono 12333
59 Rujano 12328
60 Slagter 12325
61 Santambrogio 12324
62 Keukeleire 12324
63 Bennati 12323
64 Locatelli 12321
65 Wyss 12320
66 Longo Borghini 12319
67 Zaugg 12317
68 Pardilla 12315
69 Pirazzi 12314
70 Sergent 12312
71 Feillu 12305
72 Delage 12305
73 Sella 12304
74 Goss 12303
75 De Clercq 12303
76 Visconti 12299
77 Ferrari 12296
78 Bakelants 12296
79 Kaisen 12292
80 Bérard 12291
81 Hunter 12290
82 Moreno 12289
83 De Gendt 12286
84 Selvaggi 12284
85 Kuschynski 12283
86 Minguez 12282
87 Dyachenko 12281
88 Bobridge 12281
89 Zeits 12280
90 Bodnar 12279
91 Carrara 12275
92 Samoilau 12273
93 Montaguti 12273
94 Christensen 12271
95 Veikkanen 12270
96 Meersman 12269
97 Cunego 12268
98 Jo. Rodriguez 12266
99 Ochoa 12265
100 Brown 12264
101 Boaro 12264
102 Niemiec 12261
103 Bulgac 12261
104 Frank 12261
105 Balloni 12259
106 Losada 12257
107 Flecha 12252
108 Bauer 12252
109 Stannard 12251
110 Failli 12251
111 Hushovd 12251
112 De Marchi 12250
113 Malori 12249
114 Battaglin 12248
115 Vanendert 12248
116 Brutt 12247
117 Serpa 12246
118 Kristoff 12245
119 Bos 12242
120 Pozzovivo 12241
121 Bak 12237
122 Ponzi 12236
123 Benedetti 12236
124 Van Winden 12235
125 Gasparotto 12233
126 Szmyd 12232
127 Basso 12232
128 Pinotti 12228
129 Aaen Jorgensen 12224
130 Bonnafond 12224
131 Herrada 12223
132 Gatto 12222
133 Saez 12221
134 Spezialetti 12221
135 De Greef 12221
136 Cazaux 12220
137 Farrar 12215
138 De Negri 12212
139 Garate 12211
140 Henao 12210
141 Impey 12207
142 Lund 12207
143 Rasmussen 12207
144 Hesjedal 12207
145 Petrov 12207
146 Keizer 12202
147 Tuft 12200
148 Salerno 12198
149 Sabatini 12197
150 Huzarski 12197
151 Modolo 12196
152 Tosatto 12190
153 Santaromita 12190
154 Uran 12189
155 Kreuziger 12186
156 Belletti 12184
157 Cataldo 12183
158 Demare 12182
159 Schorn 12179
160 Favilli 12176
161 Bille 12170
162 Tschopp 12170
163 Seeldraeyers 12168
164 Cavendish 12168
165 Lancaster 12165
166 Pozzato 12165
167 Gastauer 12160
168 Felline 12159
169 Ulissi 12152
170 Intxausti 12152
171 Dietziker 12150
172 Pagani 12149
173 Golas 12148
174 Colbrelli 12148
175 Gadret 12147
176 Chicchi 12146
177 Ignatiev 12142
178 Eisel 12141
179 JJ Haedo 12139
180 Coledan 12138
181 Brändle 12138
182 Oroz 12137
183 Phinney 12130
184 Kangert 12125
185 Amador 12125
186 Velits 12123
187 Larsson 12111
188 Hunt 12111
189 Hansen 12105
190 Hollenstein 12100
191 Gazvoda 12093
192 Clement 12067
193 Righi 12059
194 Rollin 12056
195 Nizzolo 11998
196 Vaitkus 11992
197 Ballan 11954
198 Thomas 11914

Points classification:

Code: [Select]
1 Bonnet
2 Leezer
3 Rasch
4 Barta
5 Niermann
6 Gustov
7 Velasco
8 Mazzanti
9 Lagutin
10 Lund
11 Roberts
12 Brambilla
13 Vicioso
14 LS Haedo
15 Bulgac
16 Vanendert
17 Bono
18 Samoilau
19 Bak
20 Marczynski
21 Capecchi
22 De Gendt
23 Dupont
24 Basso
25 Bandiera
26 Zeits
27 Vandevelde
28 Dyachenko
29 Eisel
30 Boaro
31 Pauwels
32 Bodnar
33 Brown
34 Malori
35 Henao
36 Golas
37 Oliveira
38 Pietropolli
39 Stannard
40 Petrov
41 Kwiatkowski
42 Delage
43 Benedetti
44 Aaen Jorgensen
45 Beppu
46 Meier
47 De Negri
48 Keukeleire
49 Visconti
50 Montaguti

Denifl in 34th place is the first rider without a single top 15 placing.

I'm considering some options to add some realism in order to make everything more interesting and I'll be sure to keep this conversation with myself going!

sublimit

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Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2012, 11:16 »
Nice to see Pauwels win something after the debacle of his Sky "racing" career.   :win


 

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