29pts difference.. Rodriguez requires 30 pts to guarantee red. (dont even ask me how the countback would be decided in the event of a tie on points, beyond my pay grade)

If over the remaining mountain stages J-Rod wins a stage he will only need to place 13th or better in the other to win red.. If he fnishes 2nd in a stage then 7th or better on the other will secure red. 3rd, and 4th or better on the other will secure red.. Placing 4th or lower on both remaining mountain stages will ensure Cavendish wins red.

That it would seem shoud be pretty doable for Rodridguez (although i think he will have one really bad day).

on the other hand..  There is an outside chance (depending what happens tomorrow and what sky decide to do) that Cav could contest the intermediate on Saturday. It comes after a couple of Cat 3's but theres a good 40km before the sprint point.

If so, a win on one stage would leave J-Rod needing 7th or better on the other for red.

2nd place on one stage, and he would need 3rd or better on the other to win red.

im thinking that as well, i cant see him managing both..

Both as a fanboy and as a more objective opinion: Purito. His final punch, even when tired, means he can outsprint pretty much any other contender to the finish line on the stages. Even if he can't stay with Basso, he can still outsprint the rest for second place. One second and one fifth placing (or something similar to that) seems reasonable, which would mean that he would win.

I could see Cavendish trying to get in a break for the points saturday. He could definitely be able to get them, especially with some help from a guy like Thomas or Flecha. Which could actually be good for Uran too, since having some help up on the road in the form of a allright climber like Thomas could help later in the stage. But even if Cav does take those points, I don't think it will be enough.

And if Purito launches into the God-mode I expect him to, he will crush anyone else, win two stages and takes red too. And loses a few years and win the white. And, somehow, the mountain classification.

Yep, that's what will happen.

You have got to imagine that Katusha are not gonna let JRod's performance be affected at this stage and will have taken the necessaries.

He has not had a bad stage yet! Will he have one? i imagine that something should go against him, but i get the feeling that it is not going to be one of the last 2 climbing stages. Whether he has a problem in the TT, well maybe. But the green train is taking him all the way to Milan if things continue in the manner that they have been going so far.

I applaud Cavendish for continuing but I am not sure that is necessary for him now to go all the way to Milan! He tried very hard to win the red and if it wasn't for others bad bike abilities it would be his by now! Chapeau to him for wanting to finish.

But Jrod to win Red, although i think Cav deserves it.

I think Jrod will win it.

I hope that Cav gets it.   Jrod will do well on GC, and has already got a lot out of this Giro ...

Cav has won a lot of respect here so far, and I would love to see him win the points jersey for his efforts.

JRod just needs a couple of top 4's to get it and so far that looks likely

would need for him to have at least one really bad day or for the breaks to dominate

well a couple of top 4's, but if cav can get the intermediate on saturday then suddenly j-rod needs two podiums.. then it becomes very interesting.
i think cav will try and get the intermediate saturday, his own little private san remo.. cat 1 then a couple of cat 3's with a 40km chasedown.

or trying to get Cav into a break for the early points.   Cant see that happening personally, but you never know.

I voted that JRod will get it, but I dont know really.  there is every chance a few will stay clear on at least one of the stages, if not both.   The GC guys wont necessarily be going for the win

Heart says Cav, head says Purito.  But having said that, I do think Purito will crack at some point over the next few days, probably about half way up Stelvio, so I don't really know...  Annoyingly for Cav, he's been quite unlucky with crashes - Ferrari's swerve, the one where Pozzato took out a few at the final corner etc. so if he had managed to win those... 

Movistar

Tipped Rodriguez. Not with a lot of confidence though.

13 pts difference, its all really down to wether cav can get that intermediate sprint. Its do-able, but a big ask, and if he gets it he is a more than worthy red jersey winner.

After all the complaining about using henao and uran for cav  it would be genius evil of sky to devote their antioqueno gc leaders simply to.making sure purito doesn't finish too high points wise tomorrow.

for the first time ever, I am actually cheering for Cav to win something.

 ;D

So with my dodgy math, if others take any on road sprints, for Cav to win the jersey(assuming J-Rod doesn't have the ITT of his life on Sunday) then J-Rod can finish no higher than 5 tomorrow.

Cav will win a points jersey at the Giro some year, and they don't need to re-vamp the points system in his favour to make it happen.

He really fought for it this year, though. He finished this Giro through sheer bloody-mindedness.