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Poll

Who will win the points jersey?

M Cavendish
12 (36.4%)
J Rodriguez
21 (63.6%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Voting closed: May 25, 2012, 18:06

Dim

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Who will win red...
« on: May 24, 2012, 18:06 »

29pts difference.. Rodriguez requires 30 pts to guarantee red. (dont even ask me how the countback would be decided in the event of a tie on points, beyond my pay grade)

If over the remaining mountain stages J-Rod wins a stage he will only need to place 13th or better in the other to win red.. If he fnishes 2nd in a stage then 7th or better on the other will secure red. 3rd, and 4th or better on the other will secure red.. Placing 4th or lower on both remaining mountain stages will ensure Cavendish wins red.

That it would seem shoud be pretty doable for Rodridguez (although i think he will have one really bad day).

on the other hand.. 
There is an outside chance (depending what happens tomorrow and what sky decide to do) that Cav could contest the intermediate on Saturday. It comes after a couple of Cat 3's but theres a good 40km before the sprint point.

If so, a win on one stage would leave J-Rod needing 7th or better on the other for red.

2nd place on one stage, and he would need 3rd or better on the other to win red.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2012, 18:12 »
I voted Cav I think J-rod will bonk on 1 of the next 2 stages
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Dim

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2012, 18:15 »
im thinking that as well, i cant see him managing both..

ram

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2012, 18:25 »
Would like Cav to win just because he has stuck it out till this point and also been working for the team. Not sure who'll win though, both would be deserving winners.

Slow Rider

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2012, 18:39 »
Both as a fanboy and as a more objective opinion: Purito. His final punch, even when tired, means he can outsprint pretty much any other contender to the finish line on the stages. Even if he can't stay with Basso, he can still outsprint the rest for second place. One second and one fifth placing (or something similar to that) seems reasonable, which would mean that he would win.

I could see Cavendish trying to get in a break for the points saturday. He could definitely be able to get them, especially with some help from a guy like Thomas or Flecha. Which could actually be good for Uran too, since having some help up on the road in the form of a allright climber like Thomas could help later in the stage. But even if Cav does take those points, I don't think it will be enough.

And if Purito launches into the God-mode I expect him to, he will crush anyone else, win two stages and takes red too. And loses a few years and win the white. And, somehow, the mountain classification.

Yep, that's what will happen.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2012, 18:51 »
I say Cav. Partly based on rational assessment, mostly because I want to see him reap some reward for hanging in during a final week that is designed for anyone but him. Rodriguez to do very well on stages 19 & 20, but not to finish top 4 in either. And now that I've predicted this, you can safely bet large on the opposite occurring.
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benotti69

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2012, 20:31 »
You have got to imagine that Katusha are not gonna let JRod's performance be affected at this stage and will have taken the necessaries.

He has not had a bad stage yet! Will he have one? i imagine that something should go against him, but i get the feeling that it is not going to be one of the last 2 climbing stages. Whether he has a problem in the TT, well maybe. But the green train is taking him all the way to Milan if things continue in the manner that they have been going so far.

I applaud Cavendish for continuing but I am not sure that is necessary for him now to go all the way to Milan! He tried very hard to win the red and if it wasn't for others bad bike abilities it would be his by now! Chapeau to him for wanting to finish.

But Jrod to win Red, although i think Cav deserves it.
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Fus87

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2012, 21:44 »
dont even ask me how the countback would be decided in the event of a tie on points, beyond my pay grade

I think the rider with most stage wins would get the jersey. Then 2nd places, and so on. Could become interesting if Purito wins one of the two mountain stages and places 8th on the other - they'd be tied then, wouldn't they? And both would have three stage wins...

AG

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2012, 01:59 »
I think Jrod will win it.

I hope that Cav gets it.   Jrod will do well on GC, and has already got a lot out of this Giro ...

Cav has won a lot of respect here so far, and I would love to see him win the points jersey for his efforts.

DinZ

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2012, 02:05 »
JRod just needs a couple of top 4's to get it and so far that looks likely

would need for him to have at least one really bad day or for the breaks to dominate

Dim

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2012, 02:10 »
JRod just needs a couple of top 4's to get it and so far that looks likely

would need for him to have at least one really bad day or for the breaks to dominate

well a couple of top 4's, but if cav can get the intermediate on saturday then suddenly j-rod needs two podiums.. then it becomes very interesting.
i think cav will try and get the intermediate saturday, his own little private san remo.. cat 1 then a couple of cat 3's with a 40km chasedown.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2012, 02:16 »
Cannot really see sky controlling any breaks for that far into the stage. especially as their best bet probably lies in letting big breaks go and hope they stay out in front to take the stage points

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2012, 04:01 »
or trying to get Cav into a break for the early points.   Cant see that happening personally, but you never know.

I voted that JRod will get it, but I dont know really.  there is every chance a few will stay clear on at least one of the stages, if not both.   The GC guys wont necessarily be going for the win

FreeWheelin

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2012, 04:39 »
What are the chances of JRod contesting the intermediate sprints?  Does he have any interest in winning red?  Or is it just as 'side effect' of doing well in GC?  I suppose if he does crack somewhere and misses out on pink, red would be a nice consolation prize for him.

Dancing on the Pedals

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2012, 07:29 »
Heart says Cav, head says Purito.  But having said that, I do think Purito will crack at some point over the next few days, probably about half way up Stelvio, so I don't really know...  Annoyingly for Cav, he's been quite unlucky with crashes - Ferrari's swerve, the one where Pozzato took out a few at the final corner etc. so if he had managed to win those...  :(
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DinZ

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2012, 07:35 »
Heart says Cav, head says Purito.  But having said that, I do think Purito will crack at some point over the next few days, probably about half way up Stelvio, so I don't really know...  Annoyingly for Cav, he's been quite unlucky with crashes - Ferrari's swerve, the one where Pozzato took out a few at the final corner etc. so if he had managed to win those...  :(

that is the problem, even if he did not win them (like with Ferrari's swerve doubt he would have won) but he could have got 10 points in each one at least which would put him safe

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2012, 08:02 »
Movistar

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2012, 09:42 »
that is the problem, even if he did not win them (like with Ferrari's swerve doubt he would have won) but he could have got 10 points in each one at least which would put him safe
Not quite safe, as he's got to finish the race. Which is why I went for JRod as the chances of Cavendish pulling out or finishing outside time limits, pushes the balance of probabilities JRod's way.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2012, 13:18 »
Tipped Rodriguez. Not with a lot of confidence though.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2012, 19:44 »
After todays stage


1   Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling   138   pts
2   Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team   125   

So BOTD for Cav or Sky does the work to keep it together

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2012, 20:39 »
13 pts difference, its all really down to wether cav can get that intermediate sprint. Its do-able, but a big ask, and if he gets it he is a more than worthy red jersey winner.

benotti69

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2012, 21:06 »
the only way Cav is gonna get that intermediate sprint is if he gets into the break of the day

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2012, 21:53 »
After all the complaining about using henao and uran for cav  it would be genius evil of sky to devote their antioqueno gc leaders simply to.making sure purito doesn't finish too high points wise tomorrow.
Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2012, 22:41 »
Cav getting in the early break is a fantasy, if he did that he would never make it up Stelvio inside the time limit. He is going to have to ride like hell just to make the cut tomorrow.

AG

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #24 on: May 26, 2012, 01:10 »
for the first time ever, I am actually cheering for Cav to win something.

 ;D

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #25 on: May 26, 2012, 02:40 »
I don't mind who wins. Both are worthy, IMO.

I voted for Purito, mainly because I think he'll be in better shape given all the climbing of the last days of the race.

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #26 on: May 26, 2012, 03:22 »
So with my dodgy math, if others take any on road sprints, for Cav to win the jersey(assuming J-Rod doesn't have the ITT of his life on Sunday) then J-Rod can finish no higher than 5 tomorrow.
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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #27 on: May 26, 2012, 19:35 »
Maglia Rossa - Points classification
Result
1   Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha Team   139    pts
2   Mark Cavendish (GBr) Sky Procycling   138   
3   Ryder Hesjedal (Can) Garmin - Barracuda   103   

that sucks big time and Cav will wear the Red tomorrow as Jrod is in Pink

really Crap feel for the guy

Jamsque

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #28 on: May 26, 2012, 21:40 »
Cav will win a points jersey at the Giro some year, and they don't need to re-vamp the points system in his favour to make it happen.

He really fought for it this year, though. He finished this Giro through sheer bloody-mindedness.

AG

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Re: Who will win red...
« Reply #29 on: May 27, 2012, 00:35 »
I feel for Cav.

Was hoping he would win this one.....

 

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