Velorooms - Cycling Forum

Miscellany => Games => Topic started by: Leadbelly on August 02, 2013, 19:05

Title: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 02, 2013, 19:05
Trying to cut back and be a bit more selective after a fairly barren TdF, but thought I might as well document my thoughts/selections/losses somewhere.

Can't believe that Phinney is only 4th favourite for the TT tomorrow in Poland. I've taken what I think are rather generous odds of 7 with PP. Wiggins is fav at 2.25, but despite Carlton's eulogizing of him the past couple of days, I think the few times I've seen BW he's been huffing and puffing - looks a long way away from his TT form of last year. Don't think any of the "climbs" tomorrow should have that much effect on the result - 4 percent type stuff with very short bits in the 6-7 range.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 17, 2013, 20:57
There's been a real dearth of tempting odds all week on Paddy Power for the Eneco Tour. I was starting to think that their compiler had finally wised up, but there are some possibilities for tomorrow's stage - so I've gone a little crazy to make up for those non-betting days.

Pozzato 101ew
Ladagnous 101ew
Nuyens 151ew
Langeveld 151ew
Roelandts 151ew

Also the Vuelta GC odds have been up for a while. Anybody any thoughts on that?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 18, 2013, 19:02
Well they all showed their faces at times today, but no dice.

Paddy Power have prices up for the USA Pro Challenge which is a nice surprise. Half expected them not to bother.

 *co time !

Supposedly Froome and Porte aren't going to be going for the GC (working for JoDo who's available at 67 and possibly Siutsou), so that opens up the field a lot. Going with Acevedo at 251ew who seems to be the man in form this year. Not so hot at TTing, but stage 5 is short and not flat so hopefully he can limit his losses there and make hay on the stages that do suit him. Let's see some more crazy descending.

Also Atapuma at 201ew.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 20, 2013, 03:45
Some random Vuelta top10s...

Konig @ 7
LLS @ 18
G Caruso @ 26
Hermans @ 51
DLG @ 51
Petrov @ 81
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 24, 2013, 14:28
Well I'm glad somebody managed to find some Vuelta picks because I'm really struggling to find anything of interest on PP. There's not even any decent H2H markets to fall back on. It's as if they don't want my money.  :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on August 24, 2013, 14:37
Some random Vuelta top10s...

Konig @ 7
LLS @ 18
G Caruso @ 26
Hermans @ 51
DLG @ 51
Petrov @ 81

LLS looks a good bet to me. Hes not a gc rider but hes top 10d vuelta before, might be given time in breakaways and hasnt ridden a gt this season unlike everyone else.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 24, 2013, 14:39
Yeh that was my thinking, plus he may not have signed a contract yet so may Froome it :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 24, 2013, 15:24
Brajkovic Top 10 @11
Haynow to win @15 + Top 3 @~4
Pozzovivo Top 3 @25

+small money on Kiser @~40 and Cardoso @~95 to win the mountain jersey
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 25, 2013, 02:49
Impey @ 101, why is he at this and Goss @ 34?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 25, 2013, 16:10
In-play bet on Poels at 91ew with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 25, 2013, 16:17
very good bet I think, took him at 150 to win and @35 to podium this morning
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 26, 2013, 12:03
5km at 5% is probably too much for him, but small change on Bole at 126ew.

edit - with PP as per usual
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 26, 2013, 20:12
Ratto at 101ew for tomorrow with PP.

Post Merge: August 26, 2013, 20:17
...and I see LLS is now out to 34 for a top 10 (currently 25th 1' 19'' down) . Is that drop a genuine reflection of what we've seen from him in the first few stages? Well up in the stage today, but lost 30 odd secs yesterday.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 26, 2013, 20:41
yeh, I like Ratto as well for tomorrow, especially Top 3
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 27, 2013, 02:33
I go Purito @ 51, if hell freezes over and someone breaks it up on Ezaro then he is always the 2nd best finisher of the GC guys.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 28, 2013, 03:32
Well, I got the finish right just picked the wrong one :(

Anyway, the mighty Daniel Schorn will win today @ 101.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 29, 2013, 09:07
Well according to FDJ good old Geoff Soupe has been suffering from inflammation of the feet, but should recover quickly (today would be nice). Whether he'll be leading out Roux or having a go himself I don't know, but I can't really see Roux doing much on flat finishes. So allez Geoff!

Soupe 126ew with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 29, 2013, 21:36
Well Soupe's feet were better, but poor positioning and not much team support (they all seemed to be hanging at the rear of the peloton) lead to 17th place.

Few top 10 bets with PP

Ten Dam 10
CAS 19
Lulu 26

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 30, 2013, 17:21
Stage 8

Kreuziger 101ew
Arroyo 151ew

Let's hope Arroyo is feeling okay after his spill the other day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 30, 2013, 17:25
yeah, looks like it is better not to touch odds below 100 in this vuelta...

Roche, Horner, Morkov, Stybar all easily above 100, not sure about Moreno, but 50+ at least.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on August 31, 2013, 05:53
HAIMAR @ 251
Huzarski @ 301
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 31, 2013, 20:54
De Gendt 401ew with PP. I was slagging him off in the shoutbox the other day, but as good as chance as any from a break.

What's the thinking on Betancur? 101 is very tempting, even if we know why he's at those odds. Chances are we'll just get one day at these big prices where he goes for it, and then ofc after that the odds will shoot back down. Any thoughts?

Post Merge: August 31, 2013, 21:01
Ahhhhh I can't resist - Betancur 101ew  :D (we want better smileys! )
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 31, 2013, 21:07
puh, I doubt a break has a chance to make it to be honest. Odds around ~4 for Purito look tempting - sure, Moreno has looked good so far, but usually Purito wins more or less all of these finishes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 01, 2013, 01:12
Tony G @ 34
Ponzi @ 81
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 01, 2013, 17:41
Stage 10

Konig 51ew


Post Merge: September 01, 2013, 22:51
and a single on Eijssen at 251. Been making a bit more of a mark this year - some quite decent results recently. After stage 8 Ledanois was talking up his and Nerz's (who's also been looking good) chances of getting in breaks.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 02, 2013, 20:04
TT prices up early on PP

Valverde 501ew and lots of other big ew shouts available if we assume the top two spots will be Tony and Canc.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 03, 2013, 08:00
LLS @ 201
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 04, 2013, 19:24
Little punt on Greg Henderson at 201ew for the sprint tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 05, 2013, 07:40
Going to pull out some roughies for the late attack.

Martin @ 151
LLS @ 151
Barta @ 251
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 07, 2013, 09:28
Not sure what day of these three will be best for a breakaway, but a couple of singles just out of interest.

Cataldo 101
Bagot 101

Post Merge: September 07, 2013, 09:34
and Uran at 67
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 07, 2013, 21:36
Well these conditions seem to favour balls over climbing ability, so I'll have a stab in the dark with Preidler for tomorrow's stage at 201 with PP - he seems a bit of a fighter from the little I've seen of him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 07, 2013, 22:22
Nibali and Horner at 14-1 for tommorrow with pp. Ok Breakaway probably will take it but they have Valverde 3-1.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 08, 2013, 16:22
Damn Roche stops me from saving my money through each way  :angry
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 08, 2013, 20:23
I've never liked Nico either.  :D

Shorter stage tomorrow and looks like nicer weather, so maybe less chance of a break succeeding. On the other hand with all the withdrawals and fatigue setting in it wouldn't surprise me if we get more leaks that make it.

I'll stick with Preidler at 201 for tomorrow, though there was much facepalming this morning when he didn't make it into the 28 man break.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 10, 2013, 21:32
Thankfully no odds are available for Preidler tomorrow, otherwise I'd have been forced to select him again.

Not too sure what to make of tomorrow's stage. Does any team have the strength to control a sizeable break? I dunno. Small single on Hansen at 151.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 10, 2013, 21:36
yeh, if it's a break, Hansen or Flecha maybe.

...if not, I can even see a gc guy winning it, like Valverde, Nibali or Samu. No value for the sprinters on that finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 11, 2013, 18:42
Nocentini 201 ew for tomorrow's stage. Covers both bases (just).

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 12, 2013, 17:07
Quebec on Friday - Chernetsky 251ew

Doesn't look like PP will have markets on the sprint event which is a shame. Lutsenko was being talked up by his DS for the event "Lutsenko can do this, he has the strength and the intelligence to do really well. It's not a pure sprint - they race 500m with a slight downhill, then turn 180 degrees to come back up to the finish. There's a smart, tactical way to win this kind of race and Lutsenko is going to surprise a lot of people on Thursday". Tempted to put money in my Billy Hills account where he's available at 251.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 13, 2013, 17:31
ToB Stage 1

Bongiorno at 201 with PP.

Odds tend to suggest a sprint finish, but I'm not so sure.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 13, 2013, 18:34
I can't bet at PaddyPower, but Horner @5 for tomorrow is ridiculous, it will either be a breakaway or him, can't see anyone else winning this
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 14, 2013, 07:30
ToB Stage 1

Bongiorno at 201 with PP.

Odds tend to suggest a sprint finish, but I'm not so sure.

It's basically flat, a small section 4-5% about 1km out (I forget exactly). The roads are very narrow though so could be chaos. Reijnen @151, good value for the place.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 14, 2013, 09:30
I can't bet at PaddyPower, but Horner @5 for tomorrow is ridiculous, it will either be a breakaway or him, can't see anyone else winning this

Price has nearly halved on Horner.   ;)

Do you think the break has a chance? I guess the onus would be on Katusha mainly to keep the gap small. Would they get much help (other than from teams that miss the break)?

I guess my ToB thinking is rain+wind+small roads+small teams = hard to control stage, but we'll see.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 14, 2013, 09:54
I think Katusha and Movistar will try to make it hard to improve the chance of dropping Nibali on the Angliru, so I can't really see a breakaway having a chance.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 14, 2013, 17:48
Montreal

Bardet 301ew
Chernetsky 301ew

Chernetsky looked quite good in Quebec.

Post Merge: September 14, 2013, 17:52
...and Visconti at 67 with PP for the overall at ToB.

Post Merge: September 15, 2013, 19:52
ToB Stage 2

Finishes with 750m at ~7% with bits of ~18%

Gonna try Martin at 151ew with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 16, 2013, 01:35
Ugh, paddy took their stage market down? I like Pardilla but too short.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 19, 2013, 04:57
Porte RR @ 301 :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 19, 2013, 19:50
ToB Stage 6

Gonna be real tough to beat Martin/Quintana, but Adam Yates 151ew

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/yates-brothers-eye-haytor-worlds-and-pro-ranks

“There are still some good stages ahead for me. I’ve got my eye on that stage in Devon, although Simon could make the top 10 and I will work for him. But, because he’s my brother, he’ll let me have a bit of a freedom if I’m feeling good. I reckon that stage is going to be a really savage one, but I’ll have a good crack at it.”

Post Merge: September 19, 2013, 20:14
Worlds RR.

I'm really struggling to visualize him wearing the rainbow stripes, but Weening 301ew.

Also my man Bardet at 501ew.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 19, 2013, 20:45
ToB Stage 6

Gonna be real tough to beat Martin/Quintana, but Adam Yates 151ew


Where was this, PP? They seem to have wised up soon enough
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 19, 2013, 20:54
Yes it's with Patrick Paauwe.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 20, 2013, 00:10
Looking at the odds, theres loads of good ones but of course its decieving because this race is 5 times more competitive than any other, so top riders who would usually be 5-1 max for any race they decide to target at any other point of the season are now like 15-1 which looks like great odds as they are the lowest youll ever get for those riders, but considering the competition, probably not good enough.

Just from the bottom lines of the sheet, you got guys like Konig who just won a stage of the Vuelta 350-1, Majka 400-1, Spillack who on his Spring form could easily take a race like this with the right tactics- 400-1, Rains of Taramei 600-1, Pinot, who anyone that plays PCM will have seen win multiple Liege Bastogne Lieges, and just came top 10 in Vuelta- 400-1, Amador who was looking like superman at the beginning of the season -350-1, Oliver Zaugg, a guy who has ridden all the top guys off his wheel on a monument, and who has been on peak last 2 Autumns,  and might be Cancellara's go to send up the road guy, 300-1. etc,
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 20, 2013, 05:08
Scarponi @ 81 PP

For today Elmiger @ 29, it flattens out in the final 2.5km and he's the best finisher, though it will be hard to catch Martin/Quintana if they go from the bottom.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 21, 2013, 01:55
Pfft, who let espoirs race.

Today is an easy sprint but if the first 50km are fast and the break forms late it might have a fair chance, so Holohan and Adam Yates straight up.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 21, 2013, 06:52
...and it's not really an easy sprint, cobbles, uphill, narrow roads and stuff
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 21, 2013, 07:31
Yeh I hadn't looked at it closer when I said that. The GPX profile on the website didn't actually show the final straight. So I've gone Bennett top3 @ 6.50.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 21, 2013, 17:00
Scarponi's price seems to have gone out for the RR
Spoiler (hover to show)
  :S

TTT

Trying Movistar at 126ew and Katusha at 301ew just for a bit of interest. Hopefully they may put up some interesting H2Hs or a market for the women's race.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 22, 2013, 21:19
I was hoping somebody else was going to dip a toe in the U23 TT water first.

Couple of top-3 picks with Bet365.

Kung 5.5
Sutterlin 6
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 22, 2013, 21:40
...and is Flakemore really stronger than Howsen? He did beat him in Chrono Champenois last week, but still, in the australian races Howsen did always beat him relatively easily
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: froome19 on September 22, 2013, 22:02
...and is Flakemore really stronger than Howsen? He did beat him in Chrono Champenois last week, but still, in the australian races Howsen did always beat him relatively easily
Flakemore has beaten Howson in the three big ITTs they have contested this season. So I would go for Flakemore and I think Flakemore is better at the longer distances.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 22, 2013, 22:06
mmh, in the european, yeh, and he did crash in the Tour de l'Avenir recently. He did clearly beat him in the australian and oceanian championship though (both ~30-35km, and both by ~40 seconds)

edit: and in the Thüringen Ründfahrt and Olympia Tour the timetrials came after a couple of stages, that's a bit different. Durbridge for example still falters massively in timetrials during stage races (or after going full out for a couple of days before at least).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 23, 2013, 09:56
Howson should be favourite.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 23, 2013, 15:59
..and Howsen wins.

Women's TT - nice preview (http://prowomenscycling.com/2013/09/23/how-to-watch-the-2013-individual-time-trial-world-championships/) if you haven't already read it .

Top-3 picks again with Bet365

Brennauer 8
Gunnewijk 19
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 24, 2013, 20:56
Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.

Maybe some H2Hs are the solution.

Brajkovic v Grivko 2.5
Barta v Castroviejo 2.5
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 24, 2013, 21:52
Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.


Surely one would need to look for the early starters getting some uber favourable wind conditions or something.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 24, 2013, 22:09
Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.

Maybe some H2Hs are the solution.

Brajkovic v Grivko 2.5
Barta v Castroviejo 2.5

Grivko is not starting. Same for Kangert btw, too bad, Lulu vs him at 2+ would have been the best H2H available
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 25, 2013, 08:50
That'll explain why the market has now disappeared. Nvm - a void bet is probably my most successful bet for the past couple of months.  :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 25, 2013, 19:49
Nice price of 501 for winning nationality of Kazakh on PP. Consider Iglinskiy is priced up most places 100-200 and you get Lutsenko thrown in for free.

Spoiler (hover to show)

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 25, 2013, 19:58
Kangert and Grivko already said during the Vuelta that they would focus on TTT and road race only. Brajkovic (and Velits) decided not to do the TT after doing a recob of the course and seeing no possibilities to reach a good result anyway

Spoiler (hover to show)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 26, 2013, 14:10
What has Herklotz been up to?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 26, 2013, 14:18
still too young I'd say, but who knows. What about Hirt?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 27, 2013, 22:04
Got a feeling Bronzini might pull it off tomorrow - been climbing quite well, but just a couple of outsiders for interest.

Brand 151ew
Pawlowksa 201ew

Post Merge: September 27, 2013, 22:26
....and any news on the form of Henao and Betancur? Price of 3 available for Betancur to win the H2H, but not much point unless there's a good chance that he'll finish the race.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 28, 2013, 19:18
Some H2Hs for tomorrow with PP.

Uran v Sanchez 2.75
Quintana v Froome 2.25



Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 28, 2013, 23:14
Bardet to beat Barguil @~2,4 is my favorite matchbet for tomorrow

I doubt Barguil still has the shape, and he has never shown anything in a proper one day race - or has ever ridden a race over that distance. Bardet on the other site is a promising one day classic style rider, was very strong in his first Lombardia and close to finish Top 10 in his first ever LBL
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 30, 2013, 10:58
Put money on that head to head, froome vs Quintana (Quintana)
 Neither finished so pp take my money and say I lose the bet. I thought in these cases they declare it void.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 30, 2013, 11:01
Put money on that head to head, froome vs Quintana (Quintana)
 Neither finished so pp take my money and say I lose the bet. I thought in these cases they declare it void.

I had exactly the same bet with PP and I got my stake refunded, so I'd e-mail them. Still haven't paid out on the Uran H2H though :S.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 30, 2013, 11:03
the rules (https://support.paddypower.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/43/related/1/session/L2F2LzEvdGltZS8xMzgwNTM1MTcxL3NpZC9ReFB4Y0NCbA%3D%3D) are crystal clear:

Quote
Cycling head-to-heads

Head-to-heads will be settled upon the cyclist achieving the highest placing in the specified event/stage. In the event of one or both cyclists do not start the event/stage then bets will be deemed void. If both cyclists start but fail to finish a specific event/stage then bets will be deemed void. If both cyclists start a specific event/stage and only one fails to finish then the cyclist who completes the specific event/stage will be deemed the winner

just send them a mail with a reference to the rules and a link to the official result (http://www.toscana2013.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/76.Results_RR_ME.pdf) and they will regrade that wager. Bookies ofter make mistakes in case of DNF/DNS of riders, but usually it's rectified shortly afterwards
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 30, 2013, 11:04
I guess I should check mine too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 30, 2013, 11:08
btw, I was soo peeed yesterday, I expected Grivko to be very strong and took him to beat Kiryienka at good odds - and then he finished 5th despite crashing the lap earlier but Belarus lined up Sivtsov instead of Kiryienka  :fp

but on the other side, I wasn't too unlucky with Barguil crashing out early on, so it's okay
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on September 30, 2013, 11:17
If leadelly emailed pp and informed them they had called the bet wrong, don't they have mechanism to ensure all those who did that bet get it corrected or is it only if you complain?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 30, 2013, 11:28
usually it should be the same for everyone
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 30, 2013, 11:29
I didn't e-mail them - mine was settled correctly. I was just advising you to e-mail them or to use their live chat thingy.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 02, 2013, 09:28
Milano-Torino

Martin 26ew - hopefully a bit fresher/drier than the other big names.
Visconti 151ew

(strangely the market isn't visible if you go the PP site, but you can bet by making your selection from oddschecker)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 02, 2013, 09:41
mmh, the Superga is basically 5k at 10%, can't really see Visconti winning there.

regarding the odds I'd say Pozzovivo or Atapuma, but I can't bet with PP and VC anyway. Martin looks good as well (if he didn't crash too hard on sunday)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on October 02, 2013, 10:21
Missed it, Atapuma at 101 looked OK.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 04, 2013, 16:14
GdL prices are up at PP - get 'em while they're hot!

Kwiatek 151ew - zero form, but got the skill set
Nordhaug 301ew
Vichot 301ew

Post Merge: October 05, 2013, 16:00
Some H2H interest with Bet365.

Costa v Valverde 3.00  - should be fun seeing who is the alpha male now
Sagan v Gilbert 2.50
Cunego v Nocentini 2.40
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on October 05, 2013, 23:59
Some H2H interest with Bet365.

Costa v Valverde 3.00  - should be fun seeing who is the alpha male now
Sagan v Gilbert 2.50
Cunego v Nocentini 2.40

For once I disagree with you lead. Safe money is on Valverde being leader. Gilbert has better history in this than Sagan. Might be right on Cunego though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 06, 2013, 05:24
yeah, Valverde and Purito had a semi rest day on wednesday when they did not fight for the win in Milano Torino, so they can peak for another 3 months now...

I think they just must feel all this efforts of racing on top level since june to some extent at least and will struggle today - but yeh, that's what I expected a month ago already...so we will see. Will still bet against them I think
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 06, 2013, 10:22
Where do you need Purito to finish below Hitch if you're to still have a chance of your Froome bet winning for the World Tour points leader thingy? and is Purito going to Beijing? I thought I'd read he was, but no sign of him on cyclingfever's start list (I guess if he wins today there's no need to go to China).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on October 06, 2013, 16:28
I just realized that since my Froome bet potentially had me winning £120, I should have put £10 on Murito winning this, taking a hit on the potential Froome winnings, but guaranteeing some sort of winnings unless Purito finished 2nd here.

Im so so angry with myself now.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 08, 2013, 14:36
Binche-Tournai-Binche

Haven't looked at the race situation, but quick in-play bet on Drucker 101ew.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 09, 2013, 20:01
Any thoughts on Tsatevich contesting the sprints at ToB?

Haller and Selig are meant to be sharing the sprinting duties with him, and I was just wondering since both of them had DNFs at Eurometropole (Haller was knocked over by a moto the stage before he quit) whether that would increase his chances of being the sprinter for stage one.

He's 251 currently and realistically I can't see him podiuming, but surely he's got to be shorter than that if he's got a greater chance of being the sprinter (compared with Haller 67 and Selig 151).

Maybe I'll show a bit of restraint for once and not bother.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 10, 2013, 08:44
mmh, Tsatevich is not really a sprinter, so I'd say no, even at 250-1 I think

for Beijing it's always hard to say who is still in shape, who will cope with the conditions in what way and so on, but still, I can't really see it happen

at those odds they have at PP I'd say von Hoff is good value at 50-1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 10, 2013, 20:00
Yeah, I'm a bit sceptical too, but it will be interesting to see how Katusha play it anyway.

Overall H2H

Gesink v (Dan) Martin 2.6 I see this as pretty even. Both in good nick and the climbs don't get steep enough to favour Martin really. Could come down to who has the better sprint or who has the luck.

Stage 1 H2H

Petacchi v Matthews 2.6
Hushovd v Mezgec 2.1
Hofland v Bozic 2.2

All with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on October 10, 2013, 21:25
I don't think Contador will win the Tour de France next year, but 18-1 are awfully long odds Paddy Power are putting on a guy who it is not totally unreasonable to believe underperformed with 4th.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 10, 2013, 22:01
yeh, it's too long propably, e/w at least

I like Polanc tb Ignatenko for GC at ~1,8. Polanc is by far the bigger talent and also Lampre's leader for this race + in good shape, while I haven't seen anything from Ignatenko for months. If he isn't struggling too much with changing timezones and stuff + doing a wt stage race for the first time he should beat Ignatenko pretty comfortably I think.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 10, 2013, 22:04
Haven't really thought  about the Tour myself - I don't like tying money up that far in advance.

I'd want to know a bit more about the course and TTs first. When does it get revealed? Velowire has a TT rumoured between Bergerac and Périgueux which I guess could be rolling/flat.

I do notice a certain Chris Horner is available at 501 if you have an account with youwin (I've never heard of them either). All he needs is to find a new team, decide to ride the Tour and get a course with few TT kms in it.

Mollema at 151 is quite tempting too. Ran out of gas/bit of illness towards the end this year, but without that a podium or top five at least was on.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: killswitch on October 10, 2013, 22:19
I do notice a certain Chris Horner is available at 501 if you have an account with youwin (I've never heard of them either). All he needs is to find a new team, decide to ride the Tour and get a course with few TT kms in it.
He already told Velonews he wants to win a second Vuelta. At his age I guess he's fed up with always working for someone else - won't do the Tour. Probably the same race program as this year - Tirreno/Catalunia/4th GT/Suisse?/Utah/Vuelta.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 10, 2013, 22:22
another quick H2H for stage one

Bouhanni v Viviani 2.4 Odds for Bouhanni seem to have drifted here a bit (I'm sure they were level pegging when first posted), not sure why.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 10, 2013, 22:26
yeh, looks like a decent one

I also like your Hushovd-one, odds went up there by quite a margin as well. Looks like the Argos guys went to China relatively late - and I am not sure about Hushovd's shape but I doubt someone of his calibre would go to China if he didn't have some kind of form & ambition at least

edit: same for Viviani btw, went to China one day later than Bouhanni
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 10, 2013, 22:37
It was a bit tongue in cheek my comment about Horner, but you never know, maybe the team he joins (I'm presuming he gets one) will want him to ride the Tour (or maybe even the Giro) instead of the Vuelta.

re: Hushovd v Mezgec - I was even wondering whether Veelers may even get a chance of going for a sprint or two. Mezgec hasn't been up to much recently - could be a bit undercooked.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 11, 2013, 09:39
good ones today, Leadbelly   :cool
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 11, 2013, 13:14
Tsatevich was kinda in the mix too. Think Selig was leading him out, but they were too far back and came far too late. Was a fun sprint all in all.

Paris-Tours

Gasparotto 81ew
Leukemans 101ew

Both with PP

Post Merge: October 11, 2013, 22:31
and Vachon 401ew.

Post Merge: October 12, 2013, 14:27
ToB Stage 3

I'll stick my neck out and say that Bouhanni won't get dropped tomorrow (or if he is, he'll get back on before the finish).

67ew with PP. Viviani is the same price, but he seems to have lost his sprinting legs.

Post Merge: October 12, 2013, 19:23
I wonder how many posts I can merge in a row?  :lol

What are the chances you think of Markus or Von Hoff making it tomorrow? Both at big prices on Bet365. My gut feeling is that they have less chance to make it than some of the better climbing sprinters, but I'd be interested to hear other views though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 12, 2013, 19:34
hard to say, I think it can go either way, last year the medium mountain stages were very selective, which could lead to someone like Visconti, Roux or Ponzi maybe, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger sprint as well. Barry Markus hasn't shown much signs of shape recently though, and with Flecha they have someone who might prefer a harder race.

Paris Tours is totally unpredictable I think, feeling says Roelandts might show something, but the odds are not exactly stellar.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 12, 2013, 19:52
Ta search, will give Barry and Steele a miss. However I will have some of Viviani at 67ew (despite what I said earlier). I'm a sucker for big odds.

I think Gaspa has a very good chance for Paris-Tours - got some fine late season form. The big price mover however has been Debusschere (Lotto say he's the back up plan to Roelandts) went from 250+ down to ~30. I'll be kicking myself big time if he gets anywhere near the podium as I'd kinda dismissed him offhandedly. Oh well.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on October 13, 2013, 07:55
Jempy @ 501
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 13, 2013, 10:43
Might just have to change my vote for stage race of the year.

Post Merge: October 13, 2013, 18:57
ToB Stage 4. Some H2Hs with Bet365

Costa v (Dan)Martin 2.5 Both got a decent kick
Intxausti v Herrada 2.5 I'm guessing they're slightly favouring Benat since he got that bonus second today (could have been a coincidence he got the bonus ofc - I was fast asleep)

Post Merge: October 13, 2013, 19:12
and Rogers at 101ew with PP for a bit of lulz.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 14, 2013, 21:13
Markus to beat Petacchi combined with Maes t.b. Haller @~6,4 looks like a decent parley bet for tomorrow. OPQS can very well go for Maes here I think - and even if not it could work out

Selig tb Vangenechten at ~2,7 is too high as well, no matter the circumstances (with Selig/Haller/Tstaevich - whoever will sprint), Vangenechten is just not that good.

all with pinnaclesports
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 15, 2013, 10:45
Selig tb Vangenechten at ~2,7 is too high as well, no matter the circumstances (with Selig/Haller/Tstaevich - whoever will sprint), Vangenechten is just not that good.

A good note on which to end the cycling/betting season (at least I don't think there'll be any more betting opportunities). Good ToB all round for VR.

Time now to think of some CQ teams for next year's comps.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 15, 2013, 10:50
yeh, indeed, betting wise Tour of Beijing turned out be a good end of the season.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on October 23, 2013, 15:03
Time to get on Contador, cobbles add significant uncertainty.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on December 15, 2013, 21:50
(http://i40.tinypic.com/205drti.jpg)

 :D

MSR is a long way away, but PP have their odds up.
 
Bardet 501ew
Si Clarke 501ew

Don't know yet if they will be racing, but the extra climb should suit them if they do. Orica could have lots of different cards to play, but Clarke impressed at the Worlds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on December 16, 2013, 02:07
HUNTER @ 401 has a great chance.

Not sure why Gilbert is 7, maybe they know something we don't. I think Cancellara, Gerrans and Kwiatkowski are overs.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 04, 2014, 20:08
I don't think Contador will win the Tour de France next year, but 18-1 are awfully long odds Paddy Power are putting on a guy who it is not totally unreasonable to believe underperformed with 4th.

completely agree but at even larger odds and with some serious claims from 2012 and 2013 form, Rigo Uran could be podium bound at 66/1 - thats where I'll be putting money.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 04, 2014, 20:13
Big year for Diego Ulissi also and I expect him to shine at Milan San Remo with the new changes. He played the faithful domestique for Pozzato in the Italian season openers but those roles could well be reversed on the new course. There was a lot of smart money for Ulissi in Florence but he didn't have the legs - thats the type of rider he will be come - a World Champ in the making to follow up his Junior titles.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 04, 2014, 20:22
good points, but so far Ulissi has not proved himself in hard races/stages. It's about time for him to make that step up, but I can't really see any value in 33-1 to be honest.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on January 04, 2014, 23:39
completely agree but at even larger odds and with some serious claims from 2012 and 2013 form, Rigo Uran could be podium bound at 66/1 - thats where I'll be putting money.

66/1 for podium or for win? I assume you mean win and each way it but i dont think thats so great. I generally hype Uran more than most and he was my pick for the worlds, but a TDF podium, well its doubtful even if he starts the TDF and if he did he doesn't have a team and I can't see him beat Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali,
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 05, 2014, 15:35
66/1 for podium or for win? I assume you mean win and each way it but i dont think thats so great. I generally hype Uran more than most and he was my pick for the worlds, but a TDF podium, well its doubtful even if he starts the TDF and if he did he doesn't have a team and I can't see him beat Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali,

Quintana could be Giro bound and if he does the Tour as well, you'd think his level wouldn't be quite the same - depending on priorities of course. I don't think Froome or Nibali can be matched but there's a large number of next tier riders looking to make that final podium spot. Whilst I think Contador is favourite for 3rd behind those 2, I don't think Uran should be over 3 times his price even at early shows if he makes the Tour his target. Two Top 5 placings in two years in the Giro as an understudy cannot be ignored now that he's team leader and the argument could be made it was he who fended for himself ( 2012)and for Wiggins (2013 crash chase) in those two events. But look, it's Paddy Power and I can't get a euro on with them without bringing that price in.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 05, 2014, 15:40
Contador finally came into 13 and is now at tens...

Uran at the JVDB sort of level seems about right imo. Bet365 are usually very accurate I rarely have win/place success there. The long straight flat ITT will be very hard on Uran. Even a form Andy beats him there. Valverde and a 2013 Contador would put a couple of minutes into him so it means they'd have to get dropped on every big stage and we've only seen ability in that sort of vicinity from Uran on one single day. The biggest plus on Uran is that he is going to a new team and still hasn't tried in that many GTs so may bring something more to the table. I prefer Mollema @ 151, Gesink (don't laugh) and Henao @ 201, Kangert @ 601! (365) in terms of podium value. Overall though I think the podium is pretty well locked out by Froome/Nibali/Valverde/Contador, but sh*t can happen so it's not a bad move to pick big odds outsiders for the place if there are only 4, max 5 contenders clearly ahead.

But hey, you can also back someone in January and blow your cash by June when they do their collarbone. I learned that the hard way in 2010 when I backed Pellizotti a couple of weeks out from the Giro only for the UCI to come to the party on the eve of the race. I wouldn't really recommend betting long range futures unless there is a serious overvaluation or you have cornered the market with high odds on multiple contenders. For 2012 I got Evans/Wiggins/Froome/Menchov at stupid odds over 6 months out, but that was a play on Contador's suspension. For 2013 Froome was always the man to beat for me but I waited and waited just to be sure, and I think around March I got him unchanged all year @ 3.75 and used that position to bring in Quintana, Rodriguez and Porte (ok, I think I got on Porte as soon as he smoked Eze) which made me feel very comfortable except I was missing Contador who was always too short to back. 2014 there isn't any value (beyond wild speculations) outside of the Contador play but that can now be used to bring value to say Valverde @ 34 which is looking very attractive. If you had both of those and considered the win portion of the bets a write off you're still getting I think 70% return on just one of them making the podium.

The real trick is to wait and see how the season unfolds and act on new information before the books have time to adjust. If you see career best form, injury, doping rumours etc act immediately if you think it's significant enough. Make your picks when you're absolutely certain that they will not drift any higher. So yeh, I think you have to be a bit lucky with the markets and news to do well months out. Without that I'd only really look at micro bets at large odds more as a novelty than anything else, I do this with Betfair but sadly they only really put their markets up to a month out.

BTW 365 have some randoms matchups listed, stupid margins though, wouldn't touch them but Scarponi and Porte dogs against Evans and Purito is interesting.

Paddy usually have Australian Nationals markets, Durbo apparently a bit sick so let's see if we get a gift...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 05, 2014, 16:17
Micro stakes at macro odds are where it's at. You get the buzz of thinking you might win big, without the "buzz" of maybe losing big.  :D

Some more for the 2014 collection.

Colbrelli 501ew with PP for MSR
Spilak 601ew with Bet365 for the Tour

Scarponi (2.15) over Evans at the Giro as you say looks good and Mollema (2.25) over Costa at the Tour also, but too far away for such small odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 07, 2014, 00:49
lol flip you Paddy putting a big margin on it.

Durbridge 1.22
Dennis 4.00
Howson 15
Hepburn 21

I think Dennis may be worth a sneaky one.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 07, 2014, 09:36
Well I'll have a go at Howson then at 15. Durbo does seem awfully short at 1.22
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 07, 2014, 09:53
Contador finally came into 13 and is now at tens...

Uran at the JVDB sort of level seems about right imo. Bet365 are usually very accurate I rarely have win/place success there. The long straight flat ITT will be very hard on Uran. Even a form Andy beats him there. Valverde and a 2013 Contador would put a couple of minutes into him so it means they'd have to get dropped on every big stage and we've only seen ability in that sort of vicinity from Uran on one single day. The biggest plus on Uran is that he is going to a new team and still hasn't tried in that many GTs so may bring something more to the table. I prefer Mollema @ 151, Gesink (don't laugh) and Henao @ 201, Kangert @ 601! (365) in terms of podium value. Overall though I think the podium is pretty well locked out by Froome/Nibali/Valverde/Contador, but sh*t can happen so it's not a bad move to pick big odds outsiders for the place if there are only 4, max 5 contenders clearly ahead.

But hey, you can also back someone in January and blow your cash by June when they do their collarbone. I learned that the hard way in 2010 when I backed Pellizotti a couple of weeks out from the Giro only for the UCI to come to the party on the eve of the race. I wouldn't really recommend betting long range futures unless there is a serious overvaluation or you have cornered the market with high odds on multiple contenders. For 2012 I got Evans/Wiggins/Froome/Menchov at stupid odds over 6 months out, but that was a play on Contador's suspension. For 2013 Froome was always the man to beat for me but I waited and waited just to be sure, and I think around March I got him unchanged all year @ 3.75 and used that position to bring in Quintana, Rodriguez and Porte (ok, I think I got on Porte as soon as he smoked Eze) which made me feel very comfortable except I was missing Contador who was always too short to back. 2014 there isn't any value (beyond wild speculations) outside of the Contador play but that can now be used to bring value to say Valverde @ 34 which is looking very attractive. If you had both of those and considered the win portion of the bets a write off you're still getting I think 70% return on just one of them making the podium.

The real trick is to wait and see how the season unfolds and act on new information before the books have time to adjust. If you see career best form, injury, doping rumours etc act immediately if you think it's significant enough. Make your picks when you're absolutely certain that they will not drift any higher. So yeh, I think you have to be a bit lucky with the markets and news to do well months out. Without that I'd only really look at micro bets at large odds more as a novelty than anything else, I do this with Betfair but sadly they only really put their markets up to a month out.

BTW 365 have some randoms matchups listed, stupid margins though, wouldn't touch them but Scarponi and Porte dogs against Evans and Purito is interesting.

Paddy usually have Australian Nationals markets, Durbo apparently a bit sick so let's see if we get a gift...

TBH i'm never remotely interested in betting on the Grand Tours from a long way out. I got Froome at massive e/w odds in 2012 after seeing him in the Dauphine and again when he lost a minute on Stage 1. I had picked Uran as a Giro podium last year also. It's not something I do often though. Once I get prices for the Classics I'm all over them. Sagan was 8/1 for Flanders in February. Cancellara was half that, played out fantastically well on race day. The major disappointment was Pozzato in any of the opening Monuments where I had what I felt were massive overs.




Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 07, 2014, 10:01
Ha I had the same, Sagan and Pozzato.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 12, 2014, 05:25
Landed the quartet. Pity CM couldn't hold on.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 12, 2014, 10:18
The word on the street was right.  :P

Good start to the season for me too - all thanks to Arbs.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 13, 2014, 06:42
Wonder what the chances are of Paddy putting Goss favourite for TDU.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 13, 2014, 07:52
unlikely, even Paddy knows that Greipel is quicker than him ;)

Ladbrokes already has odds for the gc btw. There was some "hype" on twitter about Javier Moreno @25 (now @17), but I can't really see the point. He tends to peak for TDU but generally (regarding talent & qualities) there are propably 20 riders which are better than him. @25 propably is too big for someone who was 2nd last year though, but I doubt he will win
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 14, 2014, 10:21
Folks, you might take a read of my blog Wheelietips and rate it (as honestly as you can!) With it in mind, I'm taking subs for 2014 and all Veloroom registered users are free for January and February previews and analysis (with no obligation to continue thereafter) Bear in mind that will take account of some ante-post advice for the bigger races.

I have access to some of the major bookmakers in Gibraltar and offshore so hope to get early prices and word on almost all the World Tour races. I dont' always have long priced winners, in fact a change in strategy last year backing large against odds on match bets paid a substantial profit but I should have best prices with the various recommended bookmakers available.

As well as analysis we've a Whatsapp and Viber group that has word on the street updates and you might have seen it on Twitter last year, the Wheeliebets Tipster Competition in the Grand Tours with betting voucher prizes - we're hoping to build on that this year.

Anyway, feel free to enquire more - the Wheelietips site is free but previews don't go up until the race is off and running so members get the advice the night/morning before.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 14, 2014, 11:47
thank, I will give it a try

we are running a completely different approach though, basically because those who take early prices (and even advertise them) destroy the market, but it's your right of course, and I am interested to see how you are doing
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 14, 2014, 12:00
I'm always late to the H2H party so tend to only be left with the dogs (where market may have been pushed too far)... I guess that's why I barely break even outside of TTTs.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 14, 2014, 12:17
thank, I will give it a try

we are running a completely different approach though, basically because those who take early prices (and even advertise them) destroy the market, but it's your right of course, and I am interested to see how you are doing

in fairness, the market isn't wholly liquid in the first place and anyone taking a larger price can't get their stake on. Add in the risk element and it doesn't pay it's way IMO. Head to Heads really did provide solid results, solid profit and the larger stake players preferred it with a proper offshore bookmaker who didn't limit.

send me an email and i'll add anyone who wants to.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 15, 2014, 17:01
PP have put more odds up (and changed a few while they were at it).

I'll have a bit of Dennis at 26ew

Post Merge: January 15, 2014, 19:26
Bet365 have their odds up. They seem to be offering ew terms for it currently of 1/3 for 1-2-3-4 which seems quite generous - probably just an error, but might be worth having a bet just in case.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 16, 2014, 01:49
I wanted to get on Gerrans but never got around to it, but there were also a couple of others who I was hoping would drift... Ok can still find him at 4...

Visconti @ 51
BOUET @ 81
and why the heck not maybe "Ewans" @ 301 wins 4 stages.


Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 16, 2014, 11:47
Yeah, why not. Ewan at 301ew for me too. If he's still in the GC mix when they get to stage 5 he'll surely try and hang on going up Willunga. The short length of all the stages should suit him too.

Post Merge: January 16, 2014, 14:47
Also I'll take advantage of Bet365's favourable ew terms with Geschke 151ew. I guess he's Giant's man for the GC and tougher stages.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 16, 2014, 14:51
Yeh I'm eying him for a pretty good race. If he's in shape could top5 depending on how many climbers show up, or top5 a couple of the sprints.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 17, 2014, 16:57
Hmmmmmm Ewan available at 151 for stage 1 with PP.  :D

I'm on that each way.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 18, 2014, 05:48
Oh you're flipping serious?

I was checking pretty often waiting for that :(

You better have gone big :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 18, 2014, 10:55
Yeah I figured you'd be a bit miffed to have missed out on it.  :(

Very slightly larger stake, but nothing crazy.

Of course it could all be academic if the fires continue and the stage is cancelled. I'm sure that's what PP are hoping will happen, because I'm sure I'm not the only one on it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 18, 2014, 22:33
Yeh I would have bet the same amount as if he were @ 10. About the right price now.

I still have my eye on a couple but will wait for the other markets to open up.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 19, 2014, 06:27
I'm expecting a top3 from him tonight in which case he will be crunched even more. Not overly confident he will survive the climb though (if he does it's his to lose).

Got on Greipel before he went odds on... might put a little on Renshaw/Sutton EW, they are always a good shout in a crit.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 19, 2014, 06:38
and Lobato @ 101, because he appeared in my twitter feed.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on January 19, 2014, 12:47
A must be on for Hammers fans today,
Kempton 4.00 : HOOF IT 2/1
Describes the crap football we are suffering this season....
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 19, 2014, 13:19
Whatever, they both got up in their H2Hs, I guess CJ wasn't even close to 3rd?

Stage 1 odds ought to htfu.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 20, 2014, 21:09
How did the horse get on Archie?

One final GC bet for TDU - Alaphilippe 251ew with PP

Can't see him pulling it off, but like Ewan's GC bet the price is very tempting.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 20, 2014, 21:19
Hmmmmmm Ewan available at 151 for stage 1 with PP.  :D

I'm on that each way.

my regret I didn't go more than I did but I got it too - and so did my wife
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 21, 2014, 09:18
lol Paddy think Stirling is an MTF.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 21, 2014, 11:39
they've got it very wrong again leaving Matthews out there in double digits. and no Greipel (although his form here isn't fantastic)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 21, 2014, 15:20
Shame no Greipel as I wouldn't have minded a crack at him at 51 or w/e he would have been. Bet365 will have him around 10-15 I guess. I struggle to see Gerrans losing but have a bit of interest in the sprinters too e.g. Von Hoff @ 67 who is climbing better than ever and Ewan @ 51 who surely can't have a worse day.

Sporting have some interesting odds such as Felline 41/11 and Roux 151/34, Alaphilippe 81/21.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 21, 2014, 18:32
I was tempted to get back on the hype train at 51 with Ewan too........ and I've caved into it. Looks a tough day, but we'll see what happens.

Going with Rojas 41ew with PP also. Small stakes sort of day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 22, 2014, 23:13
I think Silin to beat Vorganov @~2,40 with pinnacle (@2,30 bet365) looks like a good bet for stage 3. Both have about similar abilities (climbing wise) and while Silin finished on a solid 11th place in Stirling Vorganov was already far at the back with ~3k to go. He still finished 38th but without the crash taking out loads of riders in between he would propably have been even further behind
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 23, 2014, 19:08
Nice one search.

Bet365 have a top 3 market for once.

Von Hoff 6.5
Van Poppel 12
Matthews 17 (! - but maybe they'll go with Goss or try Gerrans and grab some bonifications for the GC)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 24, 2014, 00:08
That is a solid price on Matthews. I think GreenEdge will try and have a crack in the wind, making it too hard for Goss :P

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Tuart on January 24, 2014, 01:57
Good grief, if a pre-race injured & during-race injured Matthews gets picked before Harley in a flat sprint then that doesn't look good for a lot of CQ Managers' season ahead.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 24, 2014, 15:49
TDU Stage 5

Haas 51ew - wouldn't have had down as a contender in a million years, but he seems a man in inordinately good form

Shame no TT odds for San Luis from PP or 365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Wheelie1977 on January 24, 2014, 17:24
TDU Stage 5

Haas 51ew - wouldn't have had down as a contender in a million years, but he seems a man in inordinately good form

Shame no TT odds for San Luis from PP or 365.

agreed

it's all about Diego tonight though. Gerrans 2nd and Evans most likely to be third. Porte will crank it up but be caught close to the top byt the sprinting trio. Haas will be 5th I'd say
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 24, 2014, 17:36
I am pretty sure Ulissi will be dropped again to be honest
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 24, 2014, 23:09
took a small bet on Bennett to beat Elissande @~3,4 with pinnacle. Elissande was 12th last year but generally this climb is not steep enough for him and he was in the fight for gc back then. I am pretty sure Bennett will finish somewhere in the top ~20, could be enough to beat Kenny.

Gesink Top 3 @4,25 with sbobet is decent as well if it comes to a small sprint in the end
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 25, 2014, 00:04
I'll play the same but with Haig > Bakelants :D

It could happen that these fringe GC riders attack the first loop.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 25, 2014, 00:15
H2H spam today. Small go on Evans @ 5.680 too, bit overpriced there.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 25, 2014, 04:42
Neither Bennett or Kenny anywhere close... still waiting for their time. Haig only missed out by 10s :( Rest went well though.

76.    114    Kenny ELISSONDE (FDJ)       +6:39       
77.    171    George BENNETT (CAN)       +6:39    

asfdsgafdsafasgasdfasdsa
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 25, 2014, 07:00
:fp
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 25, 2014, 13:30
Stage 6

Ewan 151ew with PP - same odds as the first stage ( :P), but this is after being nowhere all week and a heavy tumble. It's a crit though so hopefully he'll be contesting things at the pointy end.

Post Merge: January 25, 2014, 13:46
....and I'll try some H2H action.

Evans v Gerrans 2.75 with PP and hope they just coast over the line (GC already settled after intermediates?), and what better place to keep an eye on Cadel than right behind him (did the same with Valverde in 2012). Hopefully Ulissi will just take it easy too.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 25, 2014, 14:18
Yeh ok. No one is beating Greipel/Kittel but Ewan can still get third.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 02, 2014, 17:21
PP have their odds up for the Dubai TT

Let's go for three with some miles in their legs already.

Sagan 101ew
Kittel 376ew
Cavendish 376ew

Could've done with being a bit more technical, but it's only 10km long so they shouldn't be too far off the top all things being equal.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 03, 2014, 07:31
I think it's way too long and straight for the sprinters. Nibali and Valverde look ok but only paying top2 for place so not sure if I will bother.

Meh bugger it why not, Valverde's good early season prologues tend to only come in Spain so he's probably just here on holiday. Don't think Nibali has had enough time to improve either. But still, first up is the only chance you get of the Martin/Cancellara duopoly being toppled.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 03, 2014, 19:27
Yeah you're probably right - certainly about Cav and Kittel, but I still think Sagan has a chance.

Bet365 have a top 3 market now for the first stage.  :(

The early bird in this case doesn't get the worm. Nvm I'll take Canc for stage 1 (outright win) at 11 with them.



Post Merge: February 03, 2014, 20:29
Giro odds up (thanks Madrazo  :P).

Ulissi and Kiserlovski are tempting, but just going with Arredondo 151ew for the time being, though with such a strong field maybe the top 10 markets might be the ones to go for when they're opened in a few months time.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 04, 2014, 00:09
Yeh Sagan =/= Sprinter and you can't ignore his 2010 P-N effort.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 04, 2014, 20:56
Kittel is in Dubai for a week already though while most others arrived yesterday, and he was a very good time trialist in his junior days. Hasn't showed anything since he joined Argos, but regarding his pure abilities I don't think he is worse than Sagan in a flat, non-technical 10k timetrial. No e/w available with bet365, but otherwise 600-1 could be worth a try

and Chernetskiy to beat Ion @~2,4 with pinnacle is a must bet I think, Izagirre's good results were all in twisty and/or hilly time trials, no way he will be anywhere near the front tommorow, Chernetskiy is way better suited to this course. No idea about shape and/or ambitions though, but regarding the abilities I think the odds should be the other way around.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 05, 2014, 14:01
and Chernetskiy to beat Ion @~2,4 with pinnacle is a must bet I think, Izagirre's good results were all in twisty and/or hilly time trials, no way he will be anywhere near the front tommorow, Chernetskiy is way better suited to this course. No idea about shape and/or ambitions though, but regarding the abilities I think the odds should be the other way around.

15. Chernetskiy +0:43
29. Izagirre +0:50

:cool

Kittel not too bad either, although still out of contention for top 3 already
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 06, 2014, 15:01
Nice reasoning search.

Yeah the TT went a bit better than I expected - no wins for me, but no bloodbath either.  :P

Can't see tomorrow being that selective - the climbs look like false flat mainly on mapmyride (can that be trusted in Dubai?) with small sections of very slightly steeper stuff - dunno if the wind will be a problem. Just in case it is tougher than expected, I'll try jack-of-all-trades Hansen at 301ew with PP - seems to have his team working all out for him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on February 06, 2014, 17:35
Nice reasoning search.

Yeah the TT went a bit better than I expected - no wins for me, but no bloodbath either.  :P

Can't see tomorrow being that selective - the climbs look like false flat mainly on mapmyride (can that be trusted in Dubai?) with small sections of very slightly steeper stuff - dunno if the wind will be a problem. Just in case it is tougher than expected, I'll try jack-of-all-trades Hansen at 301ew with PP - seems to have his team working all out for him.

there are 9 to 7 % sections Phinney be ok Kittel not is the word if that helps
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 06, 2014, 18:33
there are 9 to 7 % sections Phinney be ok Kittel not is the word if that helps

Well it kinda tallies with mapmyride - it had most of the last climb at 2-3% with a section of ~400m at ~7%. It might drop Guardini, but I'm not sure about others. Guess we'll know for sure when we see it tomorrow - but by then it will be too late.  :P

Plus very little wind tomorrow supposedly.

Hopefully some teams try something.

Post Merge: February 06, 2014, 18:53
PP have their Giro prices up now also and I can't resist Niemiec at 301ew. So much for no more GC bets because of the strong field.

Sixth last year and from what I've been reading the Lampre GC leadership at the Giro isn't cut and dry - either Horner is there to mentor the riders (according to Cooke) or it will be decided on the road (according to Copeland). Either way I reckon he should be closer to 100.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 06, 2014, 20:02
I can't resist Niemiec at 301ew. So much for no more GC bets because of the strong field.

Sixth last year and from what I've been reading the Lampre GC leadership at the Giro isn't cut and dry

6th while wasting something like ~1 1/2 minutes or so waiting for Scarponi, otherwise he had finished 4th. E/W bet Sounds good
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on February 06, 2014, 22:02
6th while wasting something like ~1 1/2 minutes or so waiting for Scarponi, otherwise he had finished 4th. E/W bet Sounds good

Way easier field last year though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 07, 2014, 00:55
is it? Last year we had Nibali and Betancur in front of him + Wiggins / Hesjedal who did not deliver, this year we have Porte, Quintana and Purito instead. All three are relatively certain to fight for a podum of course, but apart from them there is not that much diffenrece, and remember, odds on Wiggins to win the Giro were something like ~even last year for example
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 07, 2014, 10:44
Cav in-play at 18 with Bet365.

Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 20:46
That was rather tiresome - both (Cav and Hansen) made the final group, but didn't contest the sprint.

Bet365 finally have their Qatar odds up.

Couple of GC picks.

Kristoff 51ew
Ladagnous 151ew

Kristoff was at 101 on Betvictor! Still think he's too long at 51. Good chance of picking up bonus seconds, decent short tt and he seems to have the classics brain to avoid splits if the winds cause echelons etc. Negative side is that it's his first race of the season.

Think the Giro field this year is a bit stronger, but not massively. You could probably play a little game and work out the 2014 equivalent of the 2013 rider.

Nibali = Quintana?
Wiggins = Porte?
Hesjedal = Horner?

Maybe Purito would be the extra addition that makes it a little bit spicier.

Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 20:59
Godammit - PP put their odds up minutes after I made my bets and Kristoff is available there at 81.  :D

Taken Bennati from them though at 101ew - similar to Kristoff's reasons except maybe not as quick anymore for a full blown sprint, but good enough from a reduced group.

Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 21:36
Even Demare at 51ew is looking tempting too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on February 09, 2014, 01:06
is it? Last year we had Nibali and Betancur in front of him + Wiggins / Hesjedal who did not deliver, this year we have Porte, Quintana and Purito instead. All three are relatively certain to fight for a podum of course, but apart from them there is not that much diffenrece, and remember, odds on Wiggins to win the Giro were something like ~even last year for example

Right but didn't he also gain like 30 on Galibier purely because no one gave a crap about him.

Here is how I would fit the 2014 field into the 2014 gc

Quintana
Richie Porte
Joaquim Rodriguez
1 Nibali
Horner if anywhere near his 2013 level
Astana Scarponi
2  Rigoberto Uran - 2014 Uran (-?)
Ivan Basso feeling something special in the air
3 Cadel Evans
4 Michelle Scarponi
5 Carlos Betancur
Cadel Evans a year older
6 Przemyslaw Niemiec
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 09, 2014, 20:36
Qatar Stage 2

Breschel v GVA 2.5 with Bet365

Breschel caught up in today's crash, but otherwise would have been up there. Seems more of a 50/50 chance with even a slight lean towards Matti.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 10, 2014, 19:52
Qatar Stage 3 TT

Elmiger v Le Bon 2.0
Boonen v Stannard 2.2

Both with Bet365

Le Bon crashed today - nothing that serious, but enough to have his arm in a sling this evening. Elmiger (who came off also, but no lasting damage afaiw) isn't that shabby in a TT either - team say he "can really make use of the time trial as a way to test himself against strong competition".

Boonen seems to be very much in form. Good TT in San Luis. Should be closer to a coin toss with a slight lean to Boonen.


Post Merge: February 10, 2014, 20:51
Bennati v Mouris 3.0

The odds on this one have swapped around which worries me a bit, but Mouris was another crash victim today - he might still go for it tomorrow whereas Benna might take it easier, but 3.0 seems more than fair if he's feeling a inconvenienced by any bruising etc.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 11, 2014, 16:16
One winner, one loser, one void.

Qatar Stage 4

These winds surely can't last all week, but who knows - maybe 20 km/h NW winds forecast tomorrow. Guarnieri was unlucky in both the first and second stages - especially yesterday when he made the front group, but got a puncture with 4km to go and missed out on the reduced sprint. I'll try him at 401ew with PP.

Post Merge: February 11, 2014, 19:23
...and one H2H.

Markus v Boonen 4.5 with Bet365

Okay Boonen should win, but 4.5 seems ridiculous.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 12, 2014, 21:22
Close with both.  :(

Qatar Stage 5

Markus v Demare 2.2 with Bet365

Demare down to four helpers after all the crashes etc. Belkin have a full squad and now with Boom out of the GC picture they'll be more concerned with trying to win a stage. Think Bos has been suffering a bit after a crash earlier in the week and hasn't really figured, so Barry should be their main man if it comes to a sprint (which isn't guaranteed even with the finishing circuit - more winds probably).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 13, 2014, 20:33
Winner, if only half right with the reasoning.

Qatar Stage 6

Arb available if you're quick on the H2H between Bennett and Pelucchi. Bennett 2.2 at Bet365 and Pelucchi 2.2 at PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on February 13, 2014, 20:38
Winner, if only half right with the reasoning.

Qatar Stage 6

Arb available if you're quick on the H2H between Bennett and Pelucchi. Bennett 2.2 at Bet365 and Pelucchi 2.2 at PP

ANy chance if i bet both 1 of the sites tells me - flip you, no bet?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 13, 2014, 20:42
ANy chance if i bet both 1 of the sites tells me - flip you, no bet?

Always a chance. Bookies are a law unto themselves - just don't blame me if they do.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on February 13, 2014, 20:44
BMC think cummings is a chance for overall tour de med might be some nice odds ?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 13, 2014, 20:47
BMC think cummings is a chance for overall tour de med might be some nice odds ?

Don't think there are any markets for the race. At least none that I have seen.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on February 13, 2014, 20:49
Don't think there are any markets for the race. At least none that I have seen.

I have no idea but when I read that though there could be some odds for the guys to play with, bummer
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on February 15, 2014, 08:51
Not allowed to bet :P but if I were I'd place 20€ on Alberto for TDF, probably would lose 20 euros but might win 180. 9.00.

Also 10€ on Stybar for PR and Flanders, 7.00 and 13.50. 5€ on Boonen for PR and Flanders 3.75 and 5.00

Sportsbet.oz
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 15, 2014, 11:51
Tut tut. Gambling's a slippery slope Flo.  :P

MSR supposedly changes back to the old course - kinda ruins my 3 earlier outsider picks who'd have liked the extra climbing, but gives us a chance, if we're quick, to pick up some nice prices now.

Phinney 101ew with PP

MSR along with PR is one of his big early season targets. Got over that hill in Dubai with seemingly no trouble at all despite the fast pace, and we saw his sprinting in some of the finishes.

Post Merge: February 15, 2014, 12:06
...and I'll add some fast men too.

Demare 201ew
Modolo 251ew

Both with PP

Post Merge: February 15, 2014, 13:15
..and one final pick - Ciolek 151ew with PP

Was it a fluke last year? Weather played a part, but there can't be too many races where the winner from the previous year is at such massive odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 17, 2014, 19:30
Oman GC

Uran v TGVG 2.2 Bet355

Uran's had a few days racing. Finished in the first grp on the climbing day at Mallorca. TJVG hasn't raced at all, but with this bright, new shiny BMC who knows what they could do.  :P

Stage 1

Froome v Nibali 2.4 Bet365

Both to coast in in the peloton? Toin coss
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 18, 2014, 07:28
pfft TJVG will destroy all.

Get on Impey today.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 18, 2014, 19:47
Won the coin toss.

Andalucia Prologue

Vandewalle 126ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 19, 2014, 07:56
It's pretty technical for the distance, could be a surprise.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 19, 2014, 08:47
It's pretty technical for the distance, could be a surprise.

Would have liked to seen a price on Kittel, but they didn't have him up and usually you get bad odds if you ask them for specific riders.   :(
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 19, 2014, 20:09
Hmmmm 15th place and he must have been ~15th fav in the betting.  :lol

Andalucia Stage 1

Degand v Gerdemann 2.2 with Bet365

Never been impressed with Gerdemann really and he was nowhere in the mountain stage in Mallorca. Degand just off the back of an excellent Tour Méditerranéen and a 7th place on Mont Faron.

Not much else about unfortunately.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 20, 2014, 06:05
Pretty terrible TT by Gerdemann too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 20, 2014, 21:46
Gerdemann nowhere.

Oman Stage 4

Swift 126ew with Bet365

More of an interest bet than anything, but who knows. Guys like Soupe and Trentin were only 34 secs down last year, and with no Contador this year to light the blue touch paper, and according to Lotto a headwind on the final ascent, maybe a reduced group sprint could be on the cards.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 21, 2014, 21:35
Swift worked for Froome early on in the stage.

Oman Stage 5

Purito v Froome 2.5
Konig v Tschopp 2.4

Andalucia Stage 3

Hofland v Vanbilsen 2.5
TVA 51ew

All with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on February 21, 2014, 22:01
Swift worked for Froome early on in the stage.

Oman Stage 5

Purito v Froome 2.5
Konig v Tschopp 2.4

Andalucia Stage 3

Hofland v Vanbilsen 2.5
TVA 51ew

All with Bet365.

flip me, bet 365 were on that in a flash.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 21, 2014, 22:14
Yeah, it's the quick and the dead sometimes (if not all the time). The Purito one's still available - been saving himself for the showdown on Green Mountain.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 22, 2014, 07:49
don't you think TVA will try to go in the breakaway to get mountain points again? Or is that jersey secured already? I was more thinking about betting against him (for that reason, H2H on Hendo at ~3)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on February 22, 2014, 08:38
don't you think TVA will try to go in the breakaway to get mountain points again? Or is that jersey secured already? I was more thinking about betting against him (for that reason, H2H on Hendo at ~3)

The Van Average ? :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 22, 2014, 09:33
don't you think TVA will try to go in the breakaway to get mountain points again? Or is that jersey secured already? I was more thinking about betting against him (for that reason, H2H on Hendo at ~3)

Dunno, I wasn't really thinking that much.  :P

Six points available today, sixteen tomorrow. Ten point lead currently. I guess we'll know soon enough when the break forms, but you could be right (and they could ofc even have Vanbilsen as their sprinter, instead of TVA).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on February 22, 2014, 11:56
Never question the green light!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 22, 2014, 12:06
Phew looks like Uran hangs on to beat Teabag in the GC - was getting worried there. Impressive stuff though from the man from BMC.

Edit - now they've swapped them about. Guess we better wait for official comfirmation. :S
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 22, 2014, 21:24
Not such a good day, with Konig's puncture messing up his CQ points too.  :(

Andalucia Stage 4

Teklehaimanot 151
Lutsenko v Simon 2.5
Hofland v Debusschere 2.2   All with Bet365

Could be a day for the break tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 27, 2014, 19:54
Any reason Leukemans would be at 1001 for Saturday? All I can find is that he wasn't out on a recon with Wanty today, but Van Der Schueren says he's ready.

Probably just a mis-price.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 27, 2014, 20:16
there was an interview with him in Het Nieuwsblad today, he said doing a 3 hour drive (2*1 1/2 hours) to recon a race he knows anyway doesn't make any sense, therefor he prefered to train at home. He said he isn't 100% yet - but I don't really think anyone is, should be in the mix, as usual, unlikely to win, but who knows.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 27, 2014, 20:24
I can't copy that article at the moment, but this one from today's Gazet van Antwerpen is even longer:

Quote
“De kasseien liggen toch elk jaar slecht”

Bjorn Leukemans past voor verkenning

Ook de pro-continentale bende van Wanty - Groupe Gobert verkende gisteren het parcours van de Omloop. Zonder kopman Bjorn Leukemans weliswaar: de Antwerpenaar wilde met een opkomend hoestje geen enkel risico nemen en ziet bovendien het nut niet in van een voorbereidende tocht.

Met de gezondheid van Leukemans gaat het alvast de goede kant uit. “Er broedde iets maar zoals ik me nu voel, heb ik het perfect onder controle”, aldus de Bevelnaar gisterenmiddag. “De verkenning heb ik echter aan mij laten voorbijgaan. Die kasseien liggen toch elk jaar slecht. Koers in Vlaanderen is simpel: je moet altijd vooraan zitten.”

Met deze wijsheid in het achterhoofd wil Leukemans zaterdag de strijd aangaan. Maar niet zonder de nodige vraagtekens, bekent de 36-jarige ervaringsdeskundige. “In de Ronde van Algarve fietste ik met een goed gevoel rond. Ik weet dat ik zeker niet slechter ben dan de voorbije jaren, maar ik weet niet hoe goed ik ben in vergelijking met bijvoorbeeld Boonen en Van Avermaet, die al meer wedstrijddagen in de benen hebben. Zaterdag hoop ik alvast een aantal vraagtekens uit te wissen. Ik verwacht dat de ploeg van Boonen de wedstrijd in handen zal nemen, maar ik kijk toch vooral naar mezelf.”

Na het afhaken van Vacansoleil maakte Leukemans de overstap naar het Belgische Wanty - Groupe Gobert. Voor het pro-continentale team is alles nieuw. “De budgetten zijn kleiner dan bijvoorbeeld bij Vacansoleil. Dat voel je als renner. Maar de sfeer onder de renners is optimaal. We hebben al enkele fraaie resultaten bij elkaar gefietst. Nu is het aan de ploegleiding om ervoor te zorgen dat ze alles in orde krijgen om zo het gezaag van de renners voor te blijven. We hebben bijvoorbeeld nog niet al onze kledij gekregen. Maar het management weet wat er niet in orde is en ze werken eraan. Wat ik van ons verwacht? Wel, er staat iets, maar ik heb het gevoel dat iedereen ons een beetje over het hoofd ziet. Wel, ze gaan nog verschieten van ons.”

Voor de Bevelnaar is het helemaal geen probleem dat zijn werkgever niet in de eerste divisie speelt. “Pro-continentaal of WorldTour, voor mij maakt dat geen verschil. We zijn wel afhankelijk van wildcards, maar ik ga ervan uit dat ik alle wedstrijden rijd die ik wil rijden. Alleen voor de Amstel Gold Race zijn we schijnbaar nog niet zeker, maar Hilaire (ploegleider Van der Schueren, red.) heeft me bevestigd dat ook dat in orde zal komen.”

En dus begint Leukemans weer aan een lang voorjaar. “Waarbij het zwaartepunt opnieuw zal liggen bij de topklassiekers”, klinkt het ambitieus. “Ja, ik hoop opnieuw alle klassiekers te rijden tot en met Luik - Bastenaken - Luik. Die beslissing neem ik pas na de Amstel maar als ik voel dat er nog iets in de tank zit, dan ga ik zeker nog een week door. Voor een nieuwe ploeg als de onze is het belangrijk om je in elke wedstrijd te laten zien. En daar wil ik mee mijn schouders onder zetten. Misschien kan ik zo de sponsors ervan overtuigen om nog meer centen in onze ploeg te investeren.”
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 27, 2014, 20:39
Rightio thanks for that info.

Got a few pence on him at that price, but it must have been a typo - the highest anyone else is 301. Must have put an extra 0 into 101 or something, down to 51 now. I can't see it standing, but we live in hope.

Got an eye on a couple of others, but will wait and see what PP have.

You not have any thoughts (now that the Olympics are over  :P)?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 27, 2014, 20:45
I don't think I ever made money with Het Volk, more like the opposite, so I propably will take it easy this weekend....but having a short look at the odds, Turgot might be worth a small bet
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 28, 2014, 09:12
Got an e-mail this morning saying it was mis-priced and that the odds are now 51, so I took them up on the option to cancel it.  :(

(he'd better not win/place now)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 28, 2014, 11:11
yeh, to be honest, sometimes it's better to keep silent about it and hope no one else will recognize. The less money on there, the bigger the chance the bookie won't reconize it as well
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 28, 2014, 16:52
Greipel (cold) may be not starting KBK. Small change on Debusschere at 151ew with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 28, 2014, 17:48
Couple of fun picks for Omloop both with Bet365.

Garcia 201ew
Thurau 251ew

Hopefully Garcia can channel some of that old Spanish Flecha magic.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 01, 2014, 05:44
Yeh usually a terrible race for me. Didn't follow Qatar at all so it would be in the dark too,

Boonen doesn't seem too short though.

Might take Hushovd and GVA in their H2Hs in the hope that greenlight continues to deliver.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 01, 2014, 16:43
Good showing from Egoitz today.

Little bit on Vanmarcke for PR at 17ew with PP after today's performance.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 02, 2014, 06:18
Well, they were both dogs, so profit is profit. Haven't watched it yet but results look like it was the typical weird race.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 06, 2014, 21:04
PN and SB up on Bet365.

Zoidl 251ew for SB. Active and on the attack on both days at the weekend in France.

Jungels 201ew for PN GC. Course makes it more open this year and I can't see the Schlecks being that involved.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 06, 2014, 21:30
yeh, Paris Nice will be won by some kind of puncheur, or someone who can win a stage by a late attack and can gain 10-20 seconds or something like that.

so not by the Schleck brothers, no ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 08, 2014, 08:13
Zoidl still stands out to me.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 08, 2014, 09:31
PP must have a new trader - no fun prices for either SB or PN (and it was the same for Omloop and KBK last weekend).

Couple more picks for the GC at PN with Bet365.

Sepulveda 201ew - in form
Chernetskiy 251ew - punchy, but admittedly did get blown away on Malhao the other week

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 08, 2014, 15:23
Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

Spoiler (hover to show)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on March 08, 2014, 15:29
Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

Spoiler (hover to show)

TDF ew aint a bad shout. Of course with Lefevre we often see them go full retard all the way up to May then they ease off. On the other hand considering how long the last 2 TDF winners peaked, I wouldn't totally write off someone with such insane form in March carrying that to July.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 08, 2014, 15:37
yeh, I mean he had an equal preparation last year and still finished 11th in his first ever Tour de France, despite being sick for a while. Now he is beating (unbeatable) Tony Martin in the time trials and (unbeatable) Sagan in an uphill sprint, so beating Froome & Quintana on the climbs as well can't be too far away ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on March 08, 2014, 15:41
Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

Spoiler (hover to show)

Got mine off just before they cut to 20. Only 3 either way so 6 but leige is such a lottery in some ways so i didnt want to put too much.

But many thanks again for the tip.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 08, 2014, 16:10
...and who knows what may happen to Froome's back over the next few months, but unfortunately I was a bit late to get on the Kwiatek price myself.

Since it's getting a bit closer though I will have a bit of Pinot 201ew (Bet365) and Mollema 151ew (PP) for the TdF GC.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 09, 2014, 05:06
Pretty sure I picked him to win L-B-L in one of those threads.

I still have money on him for M-SR but that was before he decided not to do it, hoping for a change of heart.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 09, 2014, 19:34
Well Sepulveda down and out already, but it's not all bad news with several other names losing out.

Yates at 201ew with Bet365 for the GC - free role according to the Ogres and maybe even more so after Gerrans lost time.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 09, 2014, 19:41
mmh, he was working early on today though accoring to oge's press report:

Quote
“There was only one guy up the road,” said McPartland. “We decided we would chase, but we didn’t want to do it ourselves. When it got to 10’30, Giant-Shimano began to ride. They came back to us to ask for help. We put Simon Yates on the front. With guys working together from a few teams, we didn’t have any problems at all bringing back just one rider.”
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 09, 2014, 19:54
I saw that too, but I have selective reading when it comes to reasoning.  :P

Btw since there's more Froome back rumours today, what are the thoughts on backing Henao (251) or Nieve (601) or would they pull Porte from the Giro?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 09, 2014, 19:56
mmh, yeh, Porte would do both I guess. Or Wiggins will find some motivation to train properly again

Nieve is not good enough anyway I think, Henao, maybe, yes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 09, 2014, 20:07
Yeah Nieve would probably lose 5+ mins in the TT and the cobbles wouldn't bear thinking of, but I'll have some of Henao just to see what happens.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 10, 2014, 07:22
I'm positive money on H2Hs in five consecutive race days, some kind of a record for me, not watching any races seems to work well...

Pretty keen for some T-A odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on March 10, 2014, 13:49
Nieve could podium David Arroy style or Oscar Pereiro style. But its 2013 and its sky (which pulls its breakaway riders back, if they put any up there in the first place) so 600-1 sounds about right.

But what about Valverde 20-1? EW for a podium how much is that? Is it nowhere near worth it?

I never thought Valverde could win or podium a tour because hes so damn conservative and an average tter and never does well in the Tour. He never seemed to believe it either I remember an interview with him saying he would like to maybe be on a team that wins a tour rather than win it himself.  Probs cos he thought Contador would always easily beat him.

But last year he was on song in the Tour, 3rd on Ax3 4th on Semnoz even with no gc position  to fight for.
He's just shown some flipping balls in Roma Maxima.
 They pulled Quintana from the Tour just for him to be sole leader. I've heard he looks a lot skinnier than he ever did (and looking at the last 2 years, that is very good).
 He's improved his tt since pre suspension (though he wasn't that bad, and a good prologue rider, I think he's better now. Sacrificed some speed for it I think) he's seen he can beat Contador in the mountains, so he won't be scared of that.  Nibali, he really wasn't that far from Nibali in the Vuelta and was probably more tired for it.
So Froome is left. Obviously he would beat Valverde, but he's got those back problems now, + Gilbert never came back in 2011, Wiggins, maybe it was the same thing last year, who knows.

I don't know if you can make a better case for anyone other than Froome? 20-1, a good shout?

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 10, 2014, 19:07
He ain't got a chance against Kwiatek.   :P

Valverde's certainly in the mix - though his provisional team looks a bit weaker than last year, but whether that matters I dunno. Still feel we're missing a lot of 2014 data for some riders. Despite the twenty racing days under his belt, it doesn't feel that Nibali has got started really yet (other than one day in Oman), and I'd love to see a long non-technical TT from Bertie - I think that would be instructive, but it doesn't look like one is pencilled in on his schedule so far (maybe we'll have to wait till the TdF to see it).

Like Arb I'm looking forward to TA, especially the TTT - there must be ~10 teams in with a chance. Just hope that ew is available.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 10, 2014, 21:17
TA prices up on Bet365

Ulissi 101ew
Moreno 151ew
Arredondo 251ew

Post Merge: March 11, 2014, 19:12
Moreno out to 201 now! That's insanity (and annoying  :angry) - got to be in the hunt for bonifications (along with Ulissi and Arredondo amongst others) on stage four and five.

Post Merge: March 11, 2014, 19:12
TA Stage One

Astana @ 13 for a top-3
Cannondale @ 19 for a top-3
Ogre v OPQS 2.62

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 11, 2014, 19:22
Bet365 kindly have PN up also now.

Gerrans 15
Stybar 23ew

Should be the favourites imo.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 11, 2014, 19:24
like the Greenedge one

I also agree that Tirreno is pretty open in general, can't see any bigger gaps, problem is the time trial in the end, so it will most likely still be Kwiatko oder little Richie who gets the win.

Saxo looks tempting for tomorrow

opqs said they were hoping for Bakelants & Meersman tomorrow - as Meersman is gone now, it might now be Bakelants & Stybar, don't know...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 11, 2014, 19:26
and one final H2H for PN

Slagter v Izaguirre 2.0
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 11, 2014, 19:29
Well something better win soon.  :D

Got a very long list of unsettled bets. Maybe it's just as well the PP crazy odds era is seemingly over.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 11, 2014, 19:56
More, more, more!  :-x

Coquard 101ew for stage 4 just in case that some of the sprinters who can climb a little bit get back on, unlikely as it may seem.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 11, 2014, 20:50
Yeh the OGE team is ridiculous, I'll take three fiddy...

Hmm might wait a sec, looks like Pinny is about to go up.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 11, 2014, 20:55
yeh, best team overall, just one problem...can they manage to carry Santa to the finish?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 12, 2014, 07:02
Weird TTT for me, only found a couple I like and am going contrary to some of my golden rules that usually serve me well.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 12, 2014, 07:59
yeh, it's a bit unusual, but this time I am more tempted by some of the smaller odds, regarding the matchbets

Sent from my Lumia 900 using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 13, 2014, 09:27
Ah well the Ogres got schooled.  :(

PN Stage 5

Micro bet on GVA 151ew with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 13, 2014, 10:27
yeh, looking at the descent it's not too unlikely it will be a selected group again, Chavenel, Nibali, Betancur...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 13, 2014, 21:03
In the mix, but no more.

PN Stage 6

Matthews 126ew

No Gerrans anymore. Was right up there on the climb the day Slagter won.

Post Merge: March 13, 2014, 21:54
TA Stage 3

Appollonio 126ew

Not sure what to make of tomorrow's finish apart from that it could get messy. Lots of different types could be involved.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 13, 2014, 21:56
I was hoping for decent odds on Bennett, but doesn't look like that will be the case

maybe Keldermerckx Top 3 for PN
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 14, 2014, 08:06
I was hoping for decent odds on Bennett, but doesn't look like that will be the case

maybe Keldermerckx Top 3 for PN

managed to get Bennett Top 3 @5 and Kelderman Top 3 @6, both with betfair, not too shabby I think

kelderman is available at unibet for the same odds as well, haven't seen bennett anywhere else
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Havetts on March 14, 2014, 16:09
Damn, that flat tire really screwed over your bet. :(
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 14, 2014, 16:56
yeh, he was looking good. Bennett nowhere to be seen though
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 14, 2014, 20:33
haha, add that, who do you think my money was on?  :cheesy

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bitk3tWIYAApRXq.jpg)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on March 14, 2014, 21:15
No. 4 I suppose. :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 14, 2014, 21:17
exactly...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on March 14, 2014, 21:19
sh*t. :fp

See, that's why I don't start betting. I'd get too frustrated.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 15, 2014, 21:50
TA Stage 5

Geschke v Battaglin 2.0 with Bet365
Nocentini 101ew with PP (201 at BV!)

Now that PP have wised up, I think a BetVictor account may be on the cards at some point. They have their markets up early, lots of riders and seem to have some generous pricing - Lopez available at 201 for tomorrow's stage at PN for example (and the Noce price for TA).

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 16, 2014, 08:07
I'm backing in the chances of Lanciano chaos...

The 4 to 1 on Kreuziger to beat Moreno, Arredondo > Ulissi.

Porte @ 23 EW is more than generous too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 16, 2014, 14:54
gazzzing
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 16, 2014, 20:11
How the mighty have fallen - Cav's at 1.72 to beat Pelucchi tomorrow.  :S
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on March 16, 2014, 23:00
lol at Contador, down to 3-1 after about 24 hours. For my birthday in August last year one of the sites gave me a £5 free bet. Put all that on Contador 13-1 at the Tour, + I think i may have put 2 or 3 more when he went to 17-1.

Don't think he'll win though. May need to trade.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 17, 2014, 03:47
I have a bit more than that. If Froome isn't dominant in Catalunya he may drift to evens. Will think about it then.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 17, 2014, 21:08
TT at TA

With so many big names there's lots of tempting big odds about.

Sagan 101
Wagner 101
Peraud 151

All for the top 3 with Bet365.

Ludvigsson v Stannard 2.37

Post Merge: March 18, 2014, 09:01
I feel kinda dirty, but..

Wiggins v Hepburn 2.75

Did okay at the technical prologue at Andalucia and the two big straights here should suit him better.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 18, 2014, 09:27
yep, took that one as well, as far as I can see he never was outside Top 7 or so in a flat timetrial since the worlds 2009. And it's Hepburn's first proper wt race with climbs and so on, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suffering + two greenedge guys out yesterday already with some kind of virus

unfortunately Dumoulin tb Bertie dropped already, but just regarding the pure qualities Dumoulin must be favorite for this, came 11th last year after being in the (partly lone) breakaway on the uber hard stage the day before - while Contador propably would be happy with 11th today

Amador tb Castroviejo @2,5 is too big as well, Amador came 3rd last year, 4 seconds ahead of Castroviejo, can't see what has changed, this course still suits him better
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 18, 2014, 16:10
finally :betting


Stannard DNS btw
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 18, 2014, 19:14
Nice one search. Rather tiresome about Stannard, but Wiggins brought home the bacon.

Gonna add Kiserlovski to my Giro GC bets after all. 401ew with PP. Nice TT today and let's face it not many of the Giro riders at TA were looking like world beaters - Evans was awful, Horner's knee is acting up and even Uran was off the boil big style.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on March 18, 2014, 19:38
Modolo and Bling for MSR got be some money there ?

sorry just a bit bored  :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 18, 2014, 19:45
mmh, not sure Bling can handle the distance, I think guys like Kristoff or Demare are more temting at about equal odds, or even higher. Modolo, yeh, maybe
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 20, 2014, 10:33
Bling @ 401 :D

and Kwia @ 81 is now in play but even 51 looks ok.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 20, 2014, 11:09
gut feeling says barbie will win
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 20, 2014, 15:45
Yeah sausage rolls give me gut trouble too.  :D

Looks like Bardet doesn't start, which is all right as his chances on the revised course (ie. the old course) would be slimmer anyway. Still got some other riders at big prices to keep things interesting. Just need a couple of H2Hs now to complete the betting feast.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 20, 2014, 16:00
grmpf, I was playing around with parley bets, looking for the limits and so on - and accidentally placed one on Barbie to win MSR and Bena to win Roubaix. At 20000-1 or something like that :fp

anyway, go barbie, go bena :betting

;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 22, 2014, 00:57
gut feeling says barbie will win

Lol. Think I was like that every classic for three years. Cured now.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 22, 2014, 01:06
Finally OGE tell Gross he's worthless, should give Bling some confidence.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 22, 2014, 11:24
Finally OGE tell Gross he's worthless, should give Bling some confidence.

Looks even better with Gerrans out, as does Clarke for me.

Phinney out though, so that's another money-back.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on March 23, 2014, 02:32
Kreuziger at 66-1 for pdbf at paddy power. After Saxo just showed they are willing to send him up the road on exactly that type of mtf.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 23, 2014, 16:09
6th, 8th and 9th  :( :( :( :( :( :( :(

Colbrelli wasting energy with that attack in the last 2km.  :( :(
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 23, 2014, 19:40
Onwards and, well probably, downwards.

Catalunya GC

Betancur v Porte 2.2

Stage 1

LL v Bardet 2.25

Just for a bit of fun, if the stage H2H is a winner, we'll try rolling over and see how close we can get to all 7 over the course of the week.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 25, 2014, 15:29
No dice with the stage bet, but since Porte is a dnf the GC one looks a bit better.

Dwars door Vlaanderen

Probably a OPQS-fest, but I'll try Bozic at 101ew with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 25, 2014, 19:53
Catalunya GC

Barguil 301ew with PP

Might benefit if the stage to Vallter 2000 is shortened/cancelled. Could come down to tomorrow's short climb and Montjuic on the final day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 26, 2014, 18:24
Finally. :betting

E3 prices are up on PP and I must have eaten some sausage rolls.

Haussler 151ew
Paolini 101ew
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 26, 2014, 20:52
Annoyingly Betancur drops out, so that bet turns from a cast iron winner to money-back.

Catalunya Stage 4

Talansky v Kelderman 2.37 with Bet365

Kelderman's in form, but I'm still not convinced with him on big climbs. Of course that could be academic if they have to change the course.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 28, 2014, 19:18
Talansky was a winner above. At E3 Haussler was nowhere, but Paolini kept me interested for most of the race.

GW

Hooters 251ew
Jempy 501ew

Both with PP. Couple of outsider sprinters.

Crit Int GC

RDG v Wyss 2.25
Machado v Coppel 2.1

Both with Bet365. Can Coppel climb now or something? But maybe Tiago can find a way to mess it up, or he'll come down with beriberi or something.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 01, 2014, 04:24
Colli riding like crap but 350/1 :P

And Bandiera @ 151 maybe a random break.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 01, 2014, 08:04
Uhh I haven't really been keeping track of him, but Boonen @ 10..?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 01, 2014, 09:59
Colli riding like crap but 350/1 :P

And Bandiera @ 151 maybe a random break.

from #fluo I was more thinking about Finetto, today is pretty hard and he used to be quite good on the cobbles before his retirement

Boonen @10 for the Ronde?! propably, yeh
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 01, 2014, 20:43
DDP Stage 2

Modolo v Guardini 2.2
Vigano v Cimolai 2.37

Double with PP at ~5.2

Surely they've got to go with Modolo.

Not sure about Boonen, I might have Vanmarcke ahead of him now, but if he keeps on drifting...

Post Merge: April 01, 2014, 21:37
......and Vanbilsen 201ew with PP

RVV

Devenyns 401ew with PP

Okay he only has a chance if Degenkolb crashes and DNFs, but these things occasionally happen. Been impressing me with his domming form on the cobbles, maybe not quite at Devolder levels, but not far off it.



Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 01, 2014, 22:51
meh, no h2hs with Sagan, bookies getting smarter and smarter...

I don't think Degekolb initially was scheduled to do the big cobbled classics this year?!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 02, 2014, 09:37
He was talking about doing well in them back in January, but I dunno if Giant had different thoughts at other times - certainly he's their main man now. Though of course I'm not going to complain if they suddenly decides that Dries is a better option.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 02, 2014, 09:53
took Gatto tb Vanbilsen today, Ken said he'd take it easy. No idea what Gatto will do, but worth a small bet @~2 I think
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 02, 2014, 18:05
Is it absolutely 100% guaranteed that GVK won't start tomorrow?

Post Merge: April 02, 2014, 18:30
Found the Nieuwsblad bit about it.

"Ook de 23-jarige Guillaume Van Keirsbulck (11de) reed een sterke finale. ‘Hij zou een selectie verdienen. Maar hij reed al in Waregem, de E3, Gent-Wevelgem en nu de De Panne. Als we hem de Driedaagse laten uitrijden, vrees ik dat hij tegen de Ronde onvoldoende gerecupereerd zal zijn.’"

Sounds like they probably will pull him, but stuck a bit on at 151 with PP just in case they decide to let him ride.

Post Merge: April 02, 2014, 18:33
For the GC obv.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 02, 2014, 19:38
yeh, that's the bit I was talking about. Might change it now that he is still in contention for gc, don't know

a bit of bad luck with Gatto going in the attack and not making it today - but tbh it also didn't look like Vanbilsen took it easy at all...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 02, 2014, 20:10
Guardini for tomorrow?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 02, 2014, 20:48
I thought you'd be all over Danilo or KVH.  ;)

Not a fan of Guardini, and certainly not at 15, but if you can avoid most of the bumping and barging and get round that final corner in the first three or four, well anyone has a chance.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 02, 2014, 20:51
yeh, I was more thinking about the distance. Is it the same finish as last year? Could be messy then again
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 02, 2014, 21:54
Hepburn to win the tt is a must bet at ~8-9 I think. Looks like he took it easy today and he'll propably do the same tomorrow morning, as one of the very few favorites being able to do that

he sucked in the Tirreno tt but that was after a couple of very hard days. Not being used to do that was his main problem there I think, not the lack of tt abilities. he should be relatively fresh tomorrow
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 03, 2014, 16:27
They paid out, so I'll allow myself one :betting

Unlucky with Hepburn search - the wind changes kinda messed it up for the earlier starters.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 04, 2014, 16:47
RVV

Nationality of Winner

Australian 251 with PP

Can't see it happening myself, but you've got Haussler (67-176 on various sites), Hayman (151-301) and and few other odds and sods thrown in for free.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on April 04, 2014, 17:00
Mitch Docker! :win :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 05, 2014, 09:11
Haussler out, so that's that bet screwed.  :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 05, 2014, 15:08
Turgot 201ew with Bet365

Top 10 last year, but has showed nothing much this season. Probably drifted enough now though to be worth a small ew bet.

Quite a few cycling related horses available at the Grand National today if you fancy a flutter.

Wayward Prince - Cunego?
Big Shu - Adam Hansen?
Pineau de Re - Cedric or Jerome?
The Rainbow Hunter - lots of possible riders there, Purito maybe

I've gone with Twirling Magnet to place at 26.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 08, 2014, 16:58
Scheldeprijs

Van Asbroeck 301ew with PP
Jempy 401ew with PP

Not sure if TVA is riding actually. PCS doesn't have him down, but the race site does. If he does race though I reckon he should be under 100.

Who do you think OPQS will ride for?

Our Giro outsiders bets are starting to look a bit tastier. Porte withdrawing, Horner's bad knee and Uran sick - that third place is up for grabs.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: KeithJamesMc on April 08, 2014, 17:03
Scheldeprijs


Who do you think OPQS will ride for?


Fenn or Petacchi
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 09, 2014, 19:09
Pais Vasco Stage 4

TJVG 101ew with PP

Not sure what his excuses were after stage 1, but let's hope it was a one off - he's had some pretty good climbing days already this season.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 10, 2014, 11:22
Cuddles @ 34, seemed to be third strongest the other day until he blew, dare I say it Arrate is easier.

Late to the party on H2Hs but got Arashiro to account for Yates.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 10, 2014, 16:09
Might as well try Poels for the Giro at 351ew with Bet365 - maybe Uran won't have recovered from his illness.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on April 10, 2014, 21:36
 Wynants 400-1 for Paris Roubaix?

Cat came top 10 2 years ago and 13th last year. So he has shown a proven record of being able to perform in Roubaix, something a lot of the people with far far smaller odds have not.

Secondly he is on Vanmarke's team. Last year Belkin sent Vanmarke up early because he wasn't favoured. In 11 they got Tjalingi on the podium that way and he wasn't far off winning.

This year Vanmarke is the number 1 challenger, so that won't happen. If they are going to send someone up (especially since Canc's team is weaker)  its between him Boom and Tjalingi (500-1), though Tjalingi is getting old.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 10, 2014, 23:00
flip me Cuddles' position is flattering him. Fade big time in the TT.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 10, 2014, 23:11
I like the Wynants one, he crashed in Dwars I think, but should be more or less in perfect shape again now

and thoughts about Hushovd? I don't think he can win, he is not good enough to beat the favorites one on one, and too big of a name to get the freedom he'd need, but he might be attractive for an h2h bet, dependent on the odds (currently 1.83 to beat hagen, which is too low, but odds will go up I am pretty sure)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 11, 2014, 22:20
Pais Vasco TT

Spilak v Evans 2.2 with PP

Unless it rains, which might even it up a bit, this seems pretty safe as Evans' TT-ing decline continues.

PR

Tempted to follow Hitch's advice with  Wynants, but the price has already come in.  :(

Sinkeldam 501ew with PP

Just to add a bit of interest really (bit boring with only one other bet so far) - shone flashes of ability on the cobbles and presumably Giant will be hoping he'll be the last man up there for Degenkolb (if JD makes it that far). Probably still lacking exp.

Also PP are doing a money back offer if Boonen wins, in case you haven't noticed.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 11, 2014, 22:24
Tempted to follow Hitch's advice with  Wynants, but the price has already come in.  :(

still available at 300-1 with the sportsbook on betfair

my stupid horse I had to put in a parley bet to stretch the limit only came 2nd though, so I am stuck with the top 3 bet myself ;)

Sinkeldam really is talented on the cobbles, could be too early though, indeed
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 11, 2014, 22:33
Hushovd out to 2.37 now over Eddy. I have to say it would have to go a bit further than that to tempt me (I think Thor is gone, but it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong  :lol), but who knows what the cobbles will bring.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 11, 2014, 22:40
I don't know, EBH sucked pretty hard in Roubaix so far, never in Top 40 even. Hushovd had 4 crashs/mechanicals last year and still finished in front of him.

But he said he does not feel any good in norwegian media, trouble to breath and so on. That made me a bit unsure about that, otherwise I think he'd still finish in top 20 at least. Even two years ago when he had like the worst year ever he came 14th or something like that
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 11, 2014, 23:21
how is Trofimov's timetrial nowadays? He did a good one in the 2008 Dauphiné ;)

http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/jun08/dauphinelibere08/?id=results/dauphinelibere083

that's at least one more than Slagter ever did
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 12, 2014, 01:12
I took Eddy when it was 1.83 without really thinking too hard about it (I never back EBH TBH).

Not sure about Monfort as the one to beat Evans, but whatever.

Maybe Eki has "taught" Yury how to TT.

Was hoping there may be value in Peraud for the stage but this new Paddy guy...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 12, 2014, 04:39
I'm expecting a pretty random affair, when was the last time someone did a double-double? More than ever Cancellara is going to have no friends out there, and Vanmarcke isn't going to let himself get burned for a third time running. Like both Boonen and Vanmarcke, but for now I'll try for some random 3rd-4th tier at good prices.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 12, 2014, 14:38
I'm expecting a pretty random affair, when was the last time someone did a double-double?

don't know, but so far, when Cancellara won the Ronde, he did also win Roubaix
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 12, 2014, 18:46
Easy for Spilak, though I'll admit Evans actually did better than I thought he would.

Amstel Gold

Hoogerland 501ew

Showed nothing really this season, but the Dutch Champ in the Dutch Race? Bound to give it a futile effort on the last lap.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 12, 2014, 21:22
Another to add to the long list of ante-post bets.

TdF GC

Peraud 501ew with PP

Won't win, but if one or two of the big four have bad day/illness/injury he's sure to be one of the pack sniffing round for a podium place. Been shortening elsewhere after his PV performance.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 13, 2014, 03:16
k, Langeveld 120, Burghardt 500, Eisel 700, Hayman 900. Let's go crashfest.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 13, 2014, 08:46
Wynants 650, VJ 1000... One question remains, back Pippo yet again?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on April 13, 2014, 09:06
Wynants 650, VJ 1000... One question remains, back Pippo yet again?

get on  :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 13, 2014, 09:21
it's an endless list, schär at 1000, haussler at 650, ladagnous at 800...

a more serious one on boom around ~100
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 13, 2014, 20:49
Hushovd 1-0 EBH  (otherwise known as search 1-0 Leadbelly and Arb  :we all gonna die:)

LBL

Arredondo 251ew

His big aim is the race a few days before, but I don't see why he can't compete here too. Same skill set as Betancur, Purito etc just that he's a bit greener.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 13, 2014, 21:04
aye, happy with Hushovd today, and Eddie is a gentle guy, knew he was not allowed to roll in as the best norwegian today - as he just wasn't  :P

Paddy has odds up for Brabant already. Always a weird race, but there might be some value on Simon Yates @101 maybe?! Or Rebellin @51

edit: ehh, and just regarding his skills, Battaglin as well @151 of course. or did he injure himself or something like that in MSR?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 14, 2014, 18:03
Battaglin does not even start
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 14, 2014, 19:12
Yates could go well, but I dunno if he's starting either - he's not on PCS, but the provisional start-list on the race website has him. So who knows.

Might have a fan/interest pick or two, but hopefully they'll drift a bit first.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 15, 2014, 09:25
Guess I should have just gone harder on my original guess of fade fabs in Roubaix, almost broke even though.

LB I'm surprised you haven't gone after Bardet @ 201 for AGR? Honeybadger looks OK too.

Yates looks good for BP as Gerrans will be a week away from top form if he's even going to hit it this spring. Matthews will have to improved from last week too. Voeckler is looking ominous to me (of course I'd say that) but too short. No idea how they worked Gilbert out.  Reichenbach and Felline might be ok.

Randomly they have a book for GP Denain, unfortunately no odds for JARRIER.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 15, 2014, 14:46
Yates does ride after all.  :D

I'm not so sure about Bardet - he's more on my LBL radar, but I like the Honeybadger pick at 201ew with PP - in form, did well at the Worlds in 2012 (which I'd forgotten about) and most tellingly he's on my CQ team. The quicker Slagter might be a problem, but the distance might take care of him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on April 15, 2014, 15:56
What odds S Clarke re LBL?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 15, 2014, 21:39
What odds S Clarke re LBL?

501 with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 16, 2014, 11:15
Yates does ride after all.  :D

I'm not so sure about Bardet - he's more on my LBL radar, but I like the Honeybadger pick at 201ew with PP - in form, did well at the Worlds in 2012 (which I'd forgotten about) and most tellingly he's on my CQ team. The quicker Slagter might be a problem, but the distance might take care of him.

Navardauskas is definitely quicker in a flat sprint, but if Cauberg is brutal then he will struggle to recover in time.

Yates over Tony G looks pretty good at the odds, like quite a few dogs here actually in what is always a hard one to pick form and you can get weird groups forming towards the end. Taken a range of crap EW at 51 or greater.



Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 16, 2014, 11:49
yeh, I also think Navardauskas is quicker, still won a bunch sprint in Switzerland last year

took Martens @>100, was already 10th and 11th in the old Amstel, crashed last year, so only 30th, but on paper this new course should suit him better.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on April 18, 2014, 14:38
Rebellin 101 ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 18, 2014, 15:39
I've taken EBH at 101ew with Bet365. Drifted as far he's going to I reckon. Usual sort of problems with backing him, but I keep on kidding myself that this time it's going to be different. The slight course change might help him a bit and he doesn't have the pressure of being a favourite of any sort.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 18, 2014, 15:43
yes, I agree. And don't forget he was 2nd in the worlds
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 19, 2014, 10:58
Pick an alien time, Gautier @ 251. I think Voeckler saves himself for La Doyenne.
.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 21, 2014, 18:50
GdT GC

I see this as pretty open. None of the really big names here and not many riders coming into this in form. Could be some interesting, uncontrolled racing.

Machado 401ew
Pirazzi 401ew

Both with PP. Konig is just coming back from injury, so Machado should be Netapp's guy for the GC. Inconsistent, but showed in CI he can hang in there with the second tier guys. Bardiani have several options - Bongiorno could go well, but three tough days in a row might be too much for him. Pirazzi looks the better option - 7th last year and feels confident about his chances.

FW

Still not sure if he's taking part, but I asked PP for a price on Arredondo. Taken him at 101ew. This is the race he wants and what he thinks is the race best suited to him. Even if he does fly in late, you'd think the nature of the course and how it usually pans out will mean this will be less of a disadvantage than elsewhere.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 21, 2014, 19:51
to be honest I don't really think it makes a difference whether Machado is leading the team or not. But, yeh, at 400-1...

what about the TTT? Was thinking about BMC, solid team, and Movistar might suffer from having so wait for Fuji. Rusvelo was another team I was thinking about, but not really worth it at 15-1 or something like that
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 21, 2014, 20:29
BMC could go well, drifted out to 13 on Bet365. It's a difficult one to predict though, all of the teams have weak links or weak leaders they have to drag along - BMC might be the exception, but Dowsett + Malori are probably still stronger. Reckon I'll give the entire stage a miss.

Though having said that I see PP have priced the stage H2Hs.  :P

Netapp v Rusvelo 3.2

You could be right about Rusvelo going well (was their Coppi e Bartali performace a result of them getting the advantage of dry weather or did they ride in the rain too?), but 3.2 is taking things too far I feel.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 21, 2014, 20:39
yeh, Dowsett & Malori are stronger, but not sure what to expect from Dayer and all Visconti has done since returning from injury is DNF'ing races

Not sure when exactly there was rain in Coppi e Bartali, but Rusvelo started early, yep. Need to have a closer look at Netapp's team first...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 22, 2014, 08:48
Maybe NetApp top3 too.

Astana @ 26 is ok.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 08:52
really? I don't know about Netapp, had a look at the team, and to be honest most of them are pretty useless for a TTT

when they came 15th in the Tirreno TTT they had a better team than this one
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 22, 2014, 08:55
You're not wrong, but more often than not they punch well above their weight in TTTs.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 09:00
yeh, they do, but usually they have one of their stronger guys like Barta or Voss in the team then

don't get me wrong, I'd neither back Rusvelo to beat them at 1.4x, I remember I backed them last year for the Trentino timetrial and somehow they finished a minute down then, but Netapp...don't really know, can't see them that strong here
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 09:12
took Androni to beat Ag2R at ~2,8, Caja Rural to beat CCC at ~2,5 and Movistar not to win at ~2,5 btw

14th, 20th, 18th, 15th and 20th are Ag2R's results since Pozzovivo joined them, mostly with more or less similar teams as here, in the best one there even was Peraud. Androni usually puts together a solid performance, last year they have also beaten Ag2R in both meetings (Trentino & Giro). Godoy is not a bad addition as well.

I don't really know most of the CCC guys, but they don't have a GC rider anyway and Caja Rural has two decent guys with Lulu and Fraile.

Movistar, just can't see them as that much of a favorite, Malori and Dowsett are strong of course, but basically it's a 3 1/2 men team (those two, Capecchi + Szmyd)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 22, 2014, 09:24
Arredondo on his way to FW.  :)

Spilak's confirmed now as well for the TdF. Still available at 601 with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 09:35
I don't really know most of the CCC guys, but they don't have a GC rider anyway and Caja Rural has two decent guys with Lulu and Fraile.

that's what it said just two days ago at least, when they sent out a press release that said "Luis Leon Sanchez joins Giro del Trentino". Can't see him on the start list now, not sure if that's just a mistake or not
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 12:04
interesting thing about Rusvelo is that 5 of their guys were still racing in Russia two days ago. I did have a look, and it's like a ~10 hour flight to Italy on from there. According to Zakarin's twitter they already arrived yesterday morning, so that's not any later than the other teams then, but they might still lack some freshnes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 15:23
so, BMC won, not Movistar, that's good. Super poor performance by Caja Rural and especially Androni though - Ag2R as bad as expected, but Androni even worse

thanks for Netapp, took me a while to get convinced...

both 6 men teams (Sky and Colombia) would have won their H2H @~4 or something like that...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 22, 2014, 22:59
Yeh I was also on Androni, CJR and Neri.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 22, 2014, 23:05
Formolo and Firsanov ftw.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 22, 2014, 23:06
took Poels top 3 for tomorrow, Kwiatkowski might be the leader, but what kind of work is Poels supposed to do?! Surely nothing before hitting the final kilometer, and I think he is just too good to be at 9-1 or something like that

will also take Vanendert if odds keep rising, sore knee blablabla

h2hs mostly look like a gamble to me

Post Merge: April 22, 2014, 23:10
ahh, Firsanov  :D

took Landa to beat Locatelli for that one, at 2.3 or something like that. Locatelli migh storm the mountains out of nowhere again to disappear afterwards like last year, but I think it's more likely he doesn't
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on April 23, 2014, 00:01
Yeah i took jelle already when he was 23-1. Only 40p, but this is his favourite race and he is on form.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 23, 2014, 10:00
Blah missed FW, will spew if the Dutchies top3.

What was Pozzovivo paying for the Trentino GC win? That gap is meaningless on Bondone.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 23, 2014, 10:05
don't think there were any major changes, still below 3 I think

poels is still available @9 at betfair
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 23, 2014, 11:43
This is one stupid law where we beat you, can't bet online "in-play", can never be bothered phoning them. 
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 23, 2014, 13:57
Duarte can actually win this, got him at 67. Taking 201 for the Giro too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 23, 2014, 14:46
poels not strong enough, but Landa 5 minutes ahead or something like that
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 23, 2014, 21:00
Arredondo got the old heart beating. There were a couple of occasions I thought he was gonna hit the afterburners, but it wasn't to be - maybe next year, but I bet he won't be at 101 then. Still got my bet for him at LBL, but not sure how that suits him.

Hail mary for GdT tomorrow. Huzarski 401ew with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 23, 2014, 21:05
yeh, Huzarski is usually quite good on steep stuff, also finished top 3 in that giro stage in that lovely town 2 or 3 years ago (the final climb was shorter back then though)

here is hope for people to put money on Aru so that I can back Anton to beat him at decent odds, if there's one thing he is still good at, it's a finish like this...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 25, 2014, 08:21
that one went perfectly, Anton drifted from 2,1 to 2,8 and still won :)

took Lagutin to beat Finetto for today at ~2,2 or something like that. Bondone surely is two numbers too big for Finetto, can't see him limiting his losses again on a climb like this. Lagutin came Top 10 on the Angliru and so on in his best times - eventhough he propably isn't that good anymore, he should still be the favorite I think.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on April 25, 2014, 12:39
took Lagutin to beat Finetto for today at ~2,2 or something like that. Bondone surely is two numbers too big for Finetto, can't see him limiting his losses again on a climb like this. Lagutin came Top 10 on the Angliru and so on in his best times - eventhough he propably isn't that good anymore, he should still be the favorite I think.
Sounds good. Anyone who climbs the Stelvio twice in one day for training shouldn't be sniffed at. ;)
Finetto is more of a "typical Italian" in my book, anyway, for hilly one-day races with short climbs, but not necessarily the longer ones.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 25, 2014, 14:54
I've got the horrible feeling that Tiago has lost out on a podium by seconds.

Six seconds.  :we all gonna die:
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 25, 2014, 15:59
yeh, too bad, that was close

Lagutin ~half a minute ahead btw, Finetto still way better than I expected though, 19th and 20th
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on April 25, 2014, 17:05
Probably made a mistake with the tenner I put on scarponi to beat Evans at the giro, 2 months ago :angel
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 25, 2014, 18:21
I still think it's a decent bet Hitch, but you'd no doubt get better odds now.

Will be interesting to see if we get GC markets for Turkey. The sprinters field may be top class, but the climbers field sure isn't.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 26, 2014, 05:44
I've got the horrible feeling that Tiago has lost out on a podium by seconds.

Six seconds.  :we all gonna die:

Could be worse ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 26, 2014, 14:46
Kudus favorite to win Turkey at 2-1 with skybet (http://www.skybet.com/cycling/tour-of-turkey/event/16476216) :fp

I didn't even have a look at the profiles yet, might have to if any proper bookies turn up with this as well
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on April 26, 2014, 15:16
Finally someone realises Merhawi's potential. :D
Although odds-on favourite is a bit much. I'd put Yates (both of them), Dyachenko, Bagot, Cobo, Rebellin, Durasek and Parra above him; although I won't rule it out that he can snatch a very good result. I just don't count on it.

Also, Pello Bilbao at 16-1. Isn't he sort of a sprinter?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 26, 2014, 15:45
not really a sprinter, no real climber either though

to be honest I think this is some kind of a must win for Cobo, Torku might be a bit more careful now but if he is not going to fight for the win here he should just retire immediately
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 28, 2014, 20:06
Speaking of which - Cobo 15 with PP for stage 3. Just for fun.

Also a couple of quickies for the Romandie prologue.

Grivko 401ew with PP
Teabag v Dennis 2.2 with Bet365

Weather could play a part tomorrow, so worthwhile having a punt with the early starting Teabag over the late starting Dennis.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 28, 2014, 20:12
yeh, TJ is the better prologue rider anyway I think. Dennis had some good results but mostly against poor competition

was hoping for big odds on Kittel, ~5km is about on the edge between sprinters and time trial guys
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 29, 2014, 21:16
Teabag blows it on the first corner.  :D

Romandie Stage 1

Velits 151ew with Bet365

Not sure how the contracted stage will effect things, but with TJ out of the GC you'd think BMC would be stage hunting. According to cyclingquotes (trust them at your peril) the final climb is 18km at 3%, but that includes a downhill section - so the first 9km averages 5% and the final 2km at 5.5% (looks a twisty descent too, but no google street view to check it's technicality). If that's enough to dislodge some of the sprinters then someone like Velits (amongst others) could have a chance.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 30, 2014, 23:01
I took Kittel for tomorrow, usually it's one day fast, one day slow (especially with the big stage to come on friday). And those climbs aren't that hard anyway, can see good value in odds around ~4,5
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: froome19 on April 30, 2014, 23:10
What are the odds on Hesjedal at the Giro?
Whatever they are I would take them any day...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 01, 2014, 09:18
Hesjedal is available at 81 with PP which seems to be the biggest price (34 lowest).

I'd taken the Kittel v Mezgec H2H at 2.75, but probably would have been better just going for the outright win for Marcel. As you say the climbs don't seem that tough.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 02, 2014, 21:49
no idea how Kittel managed to get dropped on that stage...

took Roux at 150-1 for tomorrow. Lost contact due to a crash in front of him on stage 1, didn't manage to get into a good position for the sprint on stage 2 - but generally he seems to be in quite good shape (he was in the ardennes classics at least). That circuit tomorrow isn't that easy, could be a reduced bunch sprint again - or a breakaway
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 03, 2014, 16:58
Unlucky, close one today.

Shame TdG was a DNF. Was hoping we might get a nice price on him tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 03, 2014, 16:59
yeh, at least he didn't win the sprint anyway...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 03, 2014, 20:48
Romandie TT

Couple of top-3 picks with Bet365. Zoidl at 34 and Pinot at 101. Tomorrow's hill isn't long, but the TT is pretty short in itself, so some climbing ability is needed I reckon.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 03, 2014, 21:09
mmmh, maybe, shouldn't that play into Froome's (or maybe even Dennis'/Castroviejo's) hands as well then? I am not entirely sure myself yet, but last year's Romandie timetrial was pretty much flat, over a similar distance, and Martin won by ~half a minute. Those steep ~1,5-2km could be enough to make up that deficit.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 03, 2014, 22:01
Most TT courses are going to play into Froome's hands.  :P

I guess my poorly though out point was that the climb and short overall distance would rule out the Tufts, Sergents etc and keep the gaps relatively small. Maybe enough so that form would have nearly as much effect as outright TT ability or whatever you want to call it. Of course if it is very windy you'd think that the advantage would lean back to the TT experts, so who knows.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 04, 2014, 19:56
Whoops. Wrong about Sergent, but not that far off with Zoidl/Pinot.  :P

Can't find a profile other than for the last 5km, but I'm assuming the first stage of 4 Jours will be a sprint of some form. Line-ups aren't finalized, but TVA at 201ew with PP seems a reasonable pick (unless they go with KvB) - second behind Hooters today at GP de la Somme.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 05, 2014, 12:20
It's completely flat but the weather looks pretty sh*thouse, wet and 20mph winds. Let's take some hard asses who aren't bad in a finish. Only really the place in play as very hard to see Demare losing in any scenario.

Jempy @ 176
Mondory @ 226
Deflosse @ 376
Senechal @ 376

Not sure how they had TvA @ 201...

No odds for my boy Flavien who was devastating in the terrible conditions a couple of weeks ago :(
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 05, 2014, 19:34
Bet365 have their Giro markets up. Get 'em while they're hot!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 05, 2014, 19:50
grmpf, I was hoping for them not to recognize the rule changes...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 05, 2014, 20:04
PP might not know yet.  ;)

A few quickies.

KOM

Rolland v Pirazzi 4.0

Just like last year, Pirazzi "says" he's going for the GC this time. Of course he ended up going for the KoM instead last year, but it's such a tough comp to predict and both have been KoM chasers in the past that 4 feels too big no matter who the climbers are.

Points

Purito v Quintana 2.1

Don't know who'll win the GC, but you'd think Purito's last km sprint would give him the edge in points accumulation over the entire race.

Top 10

Herrada 51

Movistar all for Quintana, but that doesn't preclude someone else from their team getting a decent GC position. He hasn't show much this year, but has some good results from last year.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 05, 2014, 20:11
Points

Purito v Quintana 2.1

Don't know who'll win the GC, but you'd think Purito's last km sprint would give him the edge in points accumulation over the entire race.

yeh, and a 9th on a sprint stage gives more points than winning a mountain top finish. So if some of those sprint stages for whatever reason end up to be more selective Purito could gain massive points
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 06, 2014, 09:14
Just thinking about the points jersey. Will Bouhanni be going all the way to Trieste? Had a bit of a google and most of what I find just says they're after a sprint win and says nothing about whether he'll finish or not. I'd have him as quite similar to Viviani if there was a good chance he was going to finish, but the bookies have him as 11 in comparison to EV at 2.5.

Any extra info anyone can add?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 06, 2014, 09:22
mmh, he always used to be a good climber for a sprinter, yes - but last year that was not the case, for whatever reason...

Will he do the Tour as well again?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 06, 2014, 09:30
Don't think they've decided who will, or if both of them will, but Demare says he wants to ride this year (after Bouhanni getting the nod last year) and ofc he's signed a contract extension, whereas Bouhanni hasn't (yet).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on May 06, 2014, 09:37
I read somewhere Nacer was not doing the tour

DeMare and Pinot to lead

so maybe Nacer tries for red , Bling might be the best climber but slowest sprinter of the 4 main is he smart enough to win it ?

plus there isnthat odds thing ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 06, 2014, 09:52
Apperently bling wants to go to the tour as well...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 06, 2014, 21:43
No sign of Danilo for Wanty at 4 Jours, so I've followed Arb's lead and taken Jempy at 201ew for stage 1 also.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 07, 2014, 12:03
Pfft how did he drift after my massive investment!

Looks like the rain has stayed away anyway, decent enough wind though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 07, 2014, 12:05
Pretty keen on TTT odds also, surely they are out today?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 09, 2014, 09:00
Not much about for the TTT. Think Orica started out at about 1.6 which was probably a bit big, but what's the point unless you're betting big.

More for a bit of interest than any great money making opportunity, taking Cannondale at 15 for a top-3 with PP. Solid team - less passengers maybe than others, but no big units to really drag them into contention for the top two spots. Probably finish around 5th, but with a bit of luck or help from the weather could maybe get a podium.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 09, 2014, 09:24
mmmh, maybe, usually they have Bodnar and/or Koren in there when they deliver their stronger results though. I was more thinking about betting against them tbh, but not so sure myself. Lotto looks decent with Bak, Hansen, Monfort and Wellens, and odds are around ~2.6 or something like that
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 10, 2014, 04:57
Petacchi EW for Points looks good now. He will be sprinting hard these first few days.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 10, 2014, 08:45
Rain kinda ruined the TTT.

Taken a very small bet on Cardoso at 251ew with PP for the KoM. Involved in the crash yesterday, but he seems to think he'll be ok and he's got several days to recover before we reach any big scoring days. Martin's obviously out, no chance of team classification you'd think and I can't see Hesjedal being in contention, even for a top 10, so that leaves Farrar for the sprints/points and stage hunting/breaks/KoM.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 11, 2014, 18:36
Naturally there's no price available for either the rider I'd like to back for the GC or stage 1, but PP do have a market up for the TT (even if ew isn't available).

California Stage 2

Sergent 51

Maybe the Romandie result was a bit of a fluke, maybe he just got lucky with massive gusts of tailwind or summat, but the times don't lie I guess. Using your split data search, we can see after discounting the climb he was second quickest - just 8 seconds slower than Tony. Gonna be tough to beat Phinney and Wiggins, but if he can replicate that form he might have a chance.


Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 11, 2014, 18:58
I did not have a closer look at the route as I cannot really bet on this anyway, but Wiggins to win the overall at 1,5 or something like that looks pretty ridiculous, so there must be some value somewhere else...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 11, 2014, 20:02
Can't really remember what all the GC prices were. Machado was second favourite at 6 or something.

Think your friend Jaramillo started out at 67, and I was thinking about it, but was too slow and it dropped to ~25. Gila winner Jones at 151 was the only other big price that seemed in form.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 11, 2014, 22:42
yeh, he was available at 65 with betfair as well, same for Adam Yates, and Brenes at 100, so I took all three for some loose change - although they will propably lose too much time in the timetrial.

edit: ...but as there are splits right now on day 1, I propably can grade them as loss now already
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 12, 2014, 18:49
Just a bit of fun with Tvetcov at 501 with PP in the TT. Beat Zirbel in the slightly lumpy Gila TT and only just lost to him in the flatter Redlands TT. Would have preferred an ew shout, but since that's not available just a micro stake.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 13, 2014, 13:10
Mezgec 101ew for today.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 13, 2014, 13:15
only took a small parley bet for today, Quintana t.b. Scarponi + Ventoso t.b. Bozic at ~6.5 or something like that.

both Ventoso and Bozic have not sprinted so far but stayed with their leaders in the sprints, will be the same today I guess. The Astana guys were in front on stage 2 and 3 but Movistar will surely try not to lose time again, so it could easily be the other way around today - and if one is in front, then the other one as well probably.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 13, 2014, 13:21
okay, Kittel out offers a handful of opportunities of course
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 13, 2014, 16:46
That was a roller-coaster of a finish.

up Up UP UP  :nomnom  :Heart: :Stars:

down Down DOWN DOWN  :-e  :ohno: :ohno:

Jaramillo 23ew for tonight's MTF as I need a lift to the spirits.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 13, 2014, 16:47
yeh, stupid Ventoso stayed with Quintana...

have to hope for the bookies to honor my bet on Bouhanni now...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 15, 2014, 09:47
Stage 6

Geschke 126ew with Bet365

Blew up pretty much in the last km yesterday whilst in a good position as the gradient increased and the pace went up, but while today's finishing climb is a bit longer, it's pretty regular and flattens out in the last km or so. Fingers crossed it isn't stupidly fast on the climb so he can reach that easier finish.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 15, 2014, 18:34
Riders and ante-post bets dropping like flies.

Stage 7

Boem 401 with PP

Bit of a random one, but he's pretty much the highest priced rider I can see going in the break. Looks like a sprint stage on paper, but with a load of walking wounded and question marks about riders starting tomorrow or not, maybe the break will have an increased chance of success.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 15, 2014, 20:40
how quick is cj nowadays? any idea?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 15, 2014, 20:48
If my memory isn't playing tricks, Dim was saying the other day that he reckons CJ is quicker then Swift, but I'm not so sure. I believe that he's still recovering from his knee injury as well - I think I saw him with a bandage on the offending leg today.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 15, 2014, 20:53
ok, just asking because sky's press release seems to be a bit whitewashed - if I can believe that guy from norwegian tv on twitter.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 16, 2014, 18:58
Cali - Chevrier 201ew

Giro - Kelderman and Kiserlovski 201ew

Chevvy lost a fair bit on Mt Diablo, but he's got the climbing ability for these big mountains.

Unless a break takes it, you'd think the 2Ks will be around the top ten somewhere. Maybe they can take advantage of Movistar's/Quintana's rustiness or bigger names looking at each other. Kelderman certainly seems quite confident about his Giro chances generally and has been looking sharp on the finishes.

All with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 17, 2014, 04:49
Nice price on Kiser... 151 now.

+

Duarte @ 36
Basso @ 151

Duarte looked pretty good the other day and is desperate to make up time. At the same time he's far enough down on GC to be let go if he attacks early.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 17, 2014, 16:25
Robert and Wilco don't let us down. :betting

I'll forgive Diego since he's on my velogames team, and of course I just remembered, since he's Italian we get the money-back on the win portion of the bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 17, 2014, 19:11
Stage 9

Wellens 151 with PP

One for the break. Finally managed to lose some time today, so maybe he can start his KoM challenge now and pick up a stage win at the same time.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 18, 2014, 08:58
lol why was my Basso bet twice as big as my Kiserlovski one :o
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 18, 2014, 14:36
Break could still take it, but a couple of big priced micros in case it all comes back.

Hesjedal 501ew
Poels 501ew

Both in the finishing group yesterday and both with a decent kick/sprint.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 19, 2014, 15:43
took a small one for tomorrow, Paolini e/w at 350-1 (also available @500-1 at paddy's)

will not be easy to get rid of the sprinters, but Paolini is one of the few riders I can see doing it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 19, 2014, 15:55
I like that one. I had an eye on him for the stage after, but he probably won't be at such an attractive price for that. I'll have a cogitate on it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 19, 2014, 16:07
I like that one. I had an eye on him for the stage after

yeh, maybe, but Naso di Gatto could turn out to be too hard for him, ~7km at 8% average, that's way harder than Sella di Catona last year - and even then there were barely any non-gc guys left.

but it depends on how they race of course, could be everything from a 15-men to a 50-men sprint...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 19, 2014, 16:23
Ah yeah, I was thinking of him winning from the break actually for that stage, but with those percentages that could be tough anyway. Guess I'll have to wait and see what the prices are.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 20, 2014, 19:03
He was thinking about it today. He's at 19 for tomorrow's stage unfortunately, so I'll give him another miss.

Stage 11

Santa 151 with PP

I think any top 10 GC hopes Santa had are down the drain. 10+ mins in arrears and he's only going to lose more - starting with the TT on Thursday. So why not go for a stage win tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on May 21, 2014, 02:42
He was thinking about it today. He's at 19 for tomorrow's stage unfortunately, so I'll give him another miss.

Stage 11

Santa 151 with PP

I think any top 10 GC hopes Santa had are down the drain. 10+ mins in arrears and he's only going to lose more - starting with the TT on Thursday. So why not go for a stage win tomorrow.
GC top 10? Santa nickname?

Are you by any chance mixing up political exile Mauro Santamborggio (aka Santa), with his former teammate journeyman puncheur Ivan Santarmoita (aka Santino) ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 21, 2014, 09:13
Hehe. I didn't think he'd have a chance either, but that's what Ogre said pre-Giro were his aims - taking positive thinking a bit too far possibly.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Tuart on May 21, 2014, 09:16
I think the name can easily refer to Santamorita now since he's the only active "Santa" now so there's no need for a distinction.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 21, 2014, 09:19
not that they differ so much, regarding their natural climbing qualities...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 21, 2014, 21:37
Getting nervous about Kiserlovski tomorrow. Big test.

TT Top 3 - both with PP

Gretsch 23
Aru 101

Just for interest. One earlyish starter and a late one in case the weather plays tricks.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 21, 2014, 21:47
has Aru's tt improved? Was thinking about him to beat Majka, managed to do so in the Giro last year already. But then I saw Majka had a decent one in the Vuelta for whatever reason...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 21, 2014, 22:03
Aru's a shot in the dark really as he hasn't done a TT this year. You'd imagine there would be some general improvement though just cause he's a year older and was supposed to have been working on it over the winter. He seems in decent nick, the course looks quite tough and the field doesn't look super strong. So a top 10 could be on the cards (top 3 is just wishful thinking on my part).

He could be a good H2H against Majka - they seem pretty even to me.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: The Hitch on May 21, 2014, 22:33
Anyone think Quintana worth a shot 16-1 for podium? He did really well in a pan flat tt in tirreno. This one isn't mountain but hilly enough. Hills also may rule out some tt specialists from trying. Nairo is on peak for the race unlike most and I can see him beating all gc contenders.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 22, 2014, 09:01
Yeh I took Aru there without really looking. Actually took 5 big dogs this morning on not much more but gut.

Paddy have EW on so given the lack of riders resembling a specialist a couple of roughies may not be without a chance for a place.

Quintana @ 101 (MASSIVE ENGINE!!!!)

Hmm, that will do. Unless I go with my usual Basso bet...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 22, 2014, 09:26

TT Top 3 - both with PP

Gretsch 23
Aru 101


Both with Bet365 obviously and not PP. :fp

Quintana does seem to be talking down his chances in general, but on the other hand he's done a couple of decent TTs this year on flat courses, so who knows how he'll go on a course a bit more suited to him.

http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=71898

Quote
Just after crossing the finish line of Savona, Quintana admitted his doubts by dragging the aftermath of the fall of the sixth stage and an unwelcome cold. "I do not quite feel right. The idea was that I was recovering, but I have not felt much improvement,"

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 23, 2014, 17:49
Stage 14

Weening 201 with PP

Could be very tough if Arredondo is also in the break, but you never know.

Post Merge: May 23, 2014, 18:57
"Pieter Weening also had a bit of a stomach problem. I think we might be in survival mode tomorrow"

Doh!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 24, 2014, 16:39
I'm enjoying this money back offer with PP.

I hope they have the same offer at the Vuelta. Money back on every uphill finish.  ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 24, 2014, 18:34
Stage 15

Pirazzi v Arredondo 2.75 with PP

Still not sure if Arredondo is ill or not, but if he was 100% you think he would have been in the break today for the KoM points, and his turn on the front for Kiserlovski at the base of the final climb was very short-lived. Maybe a Bardiani hat-trick is on the cards.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 24, 2014, 23:26
Duarte to win @~40 (@67 with pp) for tomorrow

Montecampione is his training climb, he already said before the Giro that it was his target to win tomorrow.

To be honest I can't really see many scenarios for it to happen - but I'd kick myself if it happens and I am not on there...

edit: meh, conde mentioned it in his preview as well, so he is jinxed now ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 25, 2014, 16:08
grmpf  :angry
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 25, 2014, 16:20
Unlucky. You're not able to bet anywhere with ew?

Looks like Pirazzi just beat Arredondo, though Trek say that yesterday they ordered Arredondo to not go in the break, so my reasoning was maybe off a little bit.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 25, 2014, 16:27
only when I play a parley bet with horse racing on betfair sportsbook - and I have lost too many of those random favorite horse bets recently to do that regularly ;)

and Duarte Top 3 was only at ~5 this morning with betfair, that was too short I think. Lets just blame Conde...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 26, 2014, 18:28
Yeah of course, I'd forgotten about those horses.

Stage 16

Deignan 126 with PP

Seems to be finally finding his climbing legs. It's really a bet for the break, but as we saw on Sunday he was right up there on the final climb - so it almost feels like he has two chances to be involved (well, one and a bit chances if we're being realistic).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 27, 2014, 20:12
Stage 17

Santa 151 with Bet365

Ogres down to three riders. A sprint finish is no use to them tomorrow, so might as well pick one of them for the break and hope they benefit from the up and down nature of the profile.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 27, 2014, 20:14
yeh, was my 1st thought for tomorrow as well. Him and Oss

edit: also :firemew
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 28, 2014, 19:37
Santa saving himself for another day obviously.

Stage 18

Kelderman v Majka 2.25 with PP

Kelderman has proved me wrong this Giro (I'd never been convinced of his climbing on big mountains) and leads Majka 4-1 on the H2Hs on MTF finishes so far. Only finished a bit behind on Montecampione.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 29, 2014, 20:35
Maybe I was right about Wilco after all.  :lol

Giro TT

Pozzovivo v Aru 2.1 with Bet365

If arbs are your thing, Aru is available in the same H2H on PP at 2.2, but I'll just stick with stinky.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 30, 2014, 18:47
Stage 20

Anacona 201
Anton 201

Both with PP. I can't really see a break making it, but what the hey. Winner seems to be riding into a bit of late Giro form and Anton has previous on Zoncolan though it feels a long time ago.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 31, 2014, 18:26
Colbrelli top-3 at 34 with Bet365 for tomorrow's stage. Not sure how tough that little bump is tomorrow, but people's legs should be tired at the end of the week we've had. Maybe it could be Sonny's day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 31, 2014, 18:28
yeh, could be a fun stage, crit style, with a bumpy parcours

(http://unavueltamejor.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ukm_21_trieste.jpg)

looks good for Sonny.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 08, 2014, 09:42
Think I had one ante-post winner from the Giro.  :lol

Dauphine TT

Thomas v Kwiatkowski 2.5 with PP
TJVG v Froome 2.62 with Bet365

Rather annoyed with both PP and Bet365 as I asked them both for a price for Brandle and neither of them could be bothered to price him up.

Anyway I'll hope from a betting point of view that Kwiatkowski is a bit rusty after a month off, Thomas can continue his form from the Bayern Rundfahrt and that Teabag can get past the first corner without crashing.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 08, 2014, 19:27
One winner, one loser.

Dauphine Stage 2

TJVG v Talansky 2.0 with Bet365
Stetina v Trofimov 2.0 with Bet365
Voeckler v Cunego 2.2 with Bet365
Kelderman v Hesjedal 2.1 with PP

Talansky did better in the TT, but TJVG admits he was too cautious in the corners - should be the favourite on the climbs. Trofimov is suffering from a late arrival in France (visa issues again). Kelderman was looking stronger than Ryder at the end of the Giro and beat him today by 13 seconds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 09, 2014, 08:15
First stage uphill finish last year remember...

Gautier @ 201


Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 09, 2014, 16:02
That's more like it. Just let down by TJVG again. He's close to getting a black mark against his name.

Stage 3

Tsatevich 201ew with PP

Not much of a sprinter, but this isn't much of a sprinting field.

Btw anyone having any World Cup bets?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 10, 2014, 17:15
PP are early with their TdS odds.

Dennis 67ew
Izagirre 81ew

Dropping under the 100 mark for once!!! Haven't looked at the course that much in detail, but two TTs compared to one proper MTF? I think both should be considered in the top 5 TTing GC contenders here, so probably should be a bit shorter.

Edit - make that 2 MTFs, but the point still stands (I hope  :P).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 10, 2014, 17:39
Edit - make that 2 MTFs, but the point still stands (I hope  :P).

yeh, Verbier and Sees-Fee

(http://i.imgur.com/6HAvADN.png)
(http://i.imgur.com/TYwOaBn.png)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 10, 2014, 18:21
Yeah. It shows the in-depth research I do - went through the stages on PCS and got to the Verbier one and thought that was it, just the eight stages.  :D

Bit less confident on them now, but I reckon if they can stick with the Wiggins pace on the climbs they should be there or there abouts.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on June 11, 2014, 12:56
I'd already put a mental black mark against TJVG and now it's kind of being confirmed.  Talansky has certainly seemed the more promising next-gen US GC contender.

Considering how close Rohan Dennis was to Wiggins those odds are fantastic for the e/w, need to look at those later.

Likely contenders? Wiggins, Kreuziger, Rui Costa, Izagirre, perhaps Kolobnev(?), Betancur might have work permit issues, Evans might still be cooked from the Giro (though Kelderman has kept his form up - but he is much younger), Mollema, Pinot (would usually suffer in the TTs), Dennis.  Anyone else?  Taking it as read that Wiggins and Kreuziger would make the podium, Dennis is in with a good shout surely.

edit - oh yeah, Slagter too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 11, 2014, 14:00
Anyone else?

Frank or Wyss probably for IAM (whoever of them is not doing the Tour)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on June 11, 2014, 14:50
fwiw Haneo will be sky leader

Wiggo is track fat at the moment  ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 11, 2014, 14:55
fwiw Haneo will be sky leader

Wiggo is track fat at the moment  ;)

Henao still could be leader, but Wiggins isn't doing track at the Commonwealth Games (so if he's fat, it's just fat fat and not track fat  :P)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/27791905
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on June 11, 2014, 14:56
Henao still could be leader, but Wiggins isn't doing track at the Commonwealth Games (so if he's fat, it's just fat fat and not track fat  :P)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/27791905

rumor is if he does not get named TDF team he is riding track as well
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 11, 2014, 15:03
Is that realistic though? We'd have to ask MV or someone who knows track, but it doesn't seem very feasible to me that he could just swap back to track and with ~one month's practice suddenly be good enough.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on June 11, 2014, 15:06
Is that realistic though? We'd have to ask MV or someone who knows track, but it doesn't seem very feasible to me that he could just swap back to track and with ~one month's practice suddenly be good enough.

I think the reason is next year and 2016, he wants to know how long it take to track fat.

Then he can say to the new team look you will have angry wiggo going to show those :censoreds at Sky they fliped up for x period, then I need y period to get track fat and win some gold for the mother country and then get drunk for the rest of my contract?

Sound bonza geezer ?

here is my john handcock and lets go show em

well that is what I am thinking and some of the rumors saying and some interviews
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on June 11, 2014, 20:15
 :disapointed Dennis is in to 25s.  Still some value there.  Izagirre still very long though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 12, 2014, 16:58

Btw anyone having any World Cup bets?

Well I'll have one or two just to keep things interesting with micro stakes.

Italy to finish bottom of grp at 15 - all games in the north
Spain to finish bottom of grp at 41 - campaign could be over before their easier third game

and a raft of overs bets for the group stages

Spoiler (hover to show)






Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 13, 2014, 18:53
TdS TT

Cancellara v Wiggins 3.25 with Bet365

Cancellara was nowhere in the TT at Bayern Rundfahrt and had his high speed crash in training the other week, but I still feel he has the edge on Wiggins over short distances. Factor in the possibility of rain/damp and the prices should be closer imo.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 15, 2014, 20:11
TdS Stage 3

Moreno 101ew with Bet365

Three Movistar names spring to mind for tomorrow's stage. I'm hoping the finish is just too tough for Rojas, but not tough enough for Izagirre and the other GC boys to come out and play, so maybe the finish is just right for Javier (aka Goldilocks).

Post Merge: June 16, 2014, 09:29
Just a quickie as I don't have much time - Mathias Frank 151ew with PP. In case it is more of a GC day and the Sagan/Albasini types don't make it (knowing my luck the break will probably win).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 16, 2014, 10:22
what about Schurter? Seems to have a decent kick, and was one of the first to react to Kreuziger's attack on the climb yesterday
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 16, 2014, 10:41
Could be a good one. Maybe the Ogres will have Albasini (lost big time deliberately yesterday?) in the break and Schurter as the guy to contest a grp finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 17, 2014, 10:02
Anyone traded on their Bertie Tour bet yet?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 17, 2014, 12:42
no, but I don't have "enough" on it anyway, and only at 10
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 17, 2014, 20:39
TdS Stage 5

Degenkolb v Cavendish 3.75
Kristoff v Sagan 2.25

Kristoff got badly boxed in today, he even said himself he had more to give, but the gap never opened up. Cavendish should be favourite for the other H2H, but even though Degenkolb has never beaten him the prices I feel should be closer. He came mighty close on two occasions to beating him in California and I don't think his injuries from today's crash extend to more than tyre tracks on his arse (see his twitter for more details - view at your own peril though).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 20, 2014, 17:02
Even without the crash I think Degenkolb would have beaten Cavendish.

TdS Stage 8

Slagter 81ew
Izagirre 151ew
Evans 151ew

Some PP classics. After his Giro tailing off and his poor prologue I was writing Evans off straight away, but a pretty good TT today by his standards makes me feel he might have a chance tomorrow. Similar to Slagter, as long as it's not raced super fast right from the bottom he should be there or there abouts come the final and both have decent kicks.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 20, 2014, 20:29
obviously not available with the bookies I can use :P

...so I took Acevedo and the self-appointed third best climber in this race, Christophe Riblon, at 81 each.

both have to attack before the flat part with 2k to go, but I think they can, especially Acevedo. Those first 8km of the climb should suit him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 22, 2014, 09:12
no, but I don't have "enough" on it anyway, and only at 10

Yeh, I'm actually getting quietly confident now. Top3 is an ok return anyway.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 22, 2014, 15:21
Greipel won again today, so I guess it's time to back him to win green @~15

not sure if he can beat Sagan, but I don't think he is any worse than Cav and Kittel, surely more suited to the hilly stages, and also to the cobbled one. And I am not totally convinced by Sagan this year
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on June 22, 2014, 16:34
Greipel won again today, so I guess it's time to back him to win green @~15

not sure if he can beat Sagan, but I don't think he is any worse than Cav and Kittel, surely more suited to the hilly stages, and also to the cobbled one. And I am not totally convinced by Sagan this year
Question from an absolute betting noob: How much do you bet in a typical case (like Greipel to win #vert)?
I don't think I'll get into it myself - I wouldn't know when to stop - but I'm interested in the thoughts and mechanics behind it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 22, 2014, 17:29
Question from an absolute betting noob: How much do you bet in a typical case (like Greipel to win #vert)?

this is a 01/10 :P

so 10% of the the maximum stake I generally place on a single bet. I usually very seldom exceed 4 or 5/10 on cycling bets though, so this is a reasonably big bet, regarding the odds.

that is probably not exactly what you were asking for, but I usually do not talk about it moneywise - and in some cases also better don't think about it that way
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 22, 2014, 21:21
Well I'll have one or two just to keep things interesting with micro stakes.

Italy to finish bottom of grp at 15 - all games in the north
Spain to finish bottom of grp at 41 - campaign could be over before their easier third game

and a raft of overs bets for the group stages

Spoiler (hover to show)

getting nervous already? ;)

doesn't look too bad at the moment, 6 out of 10 still possible

so you need...

Quote
  • England to beat Costa Rica + Uruguay to beat Italy
  • Spain not to beat Australia

  • Columbia - Japan over
  • England - Costa Rica over
  • Switzerland - Honduras over
  • Germany - USA over

Japan and Honduras are lacking a bit of firepower, but who knows. Sounds possible
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 22, 2014, 21:44
Hehe, well I'm trying not to jinx it, but it would be kinda cool if one or two of them come in. The goals do seem to be drying up the past few days unfortunately, so we'll see what happens.

It could be pretty embarrassing though if my "ten seconds thinking" football bets do better than my in depth "thirty seconds thinking" cycling bets.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 22, 2014, 21:48
actually that's exactly what I am experiencing at the moment :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 24, 2014, 21:23
Back to some cycling.

TdF GC

Fuglsang v Kreuziger 3.25 with Bet365

If Bert is in yellow, then Kreuz could be doing a lot more intensive donkey work this year (he did donkey work last year too, but as it turned out he was probably stronger than Bert). Fair chance he'll have to sacrifice his personal ambitions either by saving himself after doing his work, or blowing up big style chasing down some break or other.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 25, 2014, 13:56
Schlecks top10 looks ok.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 25, 2014, 14:08
It will only be work on the MTF, and its more likely to be if Contador is trying to take time and he's forced to go hard early Popovych style.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 25, 2014, 14:18
I'd take Zubeldia over Frandy I think
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 25, 2014, 14:21
Oh ok didn't realise HAIMAR has had some sneaky top30s recently.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 26, 2014, 19:16
Let down by the Germans. Tut tut.

However the Swiss and the Colombians did the business at much better odds. :betting
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 29, 2014, 04:49
Sagan @ 15 is pretty decent, even if he only gets a place it's a better than even return... Also Gerrans @ 101. Will look to hedge with Cav closer to the day.

Anyone game for Barbie @ 250? :o
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 29, 2014, 05:01
Maybe Fabs @ 150 too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 04, 2014, 15:04
TdF Stage 1

Keukeleire 301ew with PP

Not sure how the Ogres will play this now with Matthews out. Probably making sure that Gerrans gets as high a placing as possible, so he can maybe get yellow the day after, is the most likely forecast, but Jens could be a sprint option. Would need some chaos/crashes probably, but could be worth it at this big price.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on July 04, 2014, 15:12
Maybe Fabs @ 150 too.

Will Spartacus be on duty for Danny van Poppel?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: cj2002 on July 04, 2014, 15:25
I've taken Valverde each way for the win at 15/1. Not because I think he will win, but because I think he will podium, and 1/3 of 15/1 is better than the 6/4 you get for Valverde to finish on the podium.

I've also gone for Cav to win Green at 11/2. But to hedge my bets, I've gone for Sagan to beat Greipel in a Stage 1 match-up. I was tempted by Costa vs. Valverde, but decided that anything can happen that deep into a peloton.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 05, 2014, 09:41
I reckon they do it for Gerrans today (even though expect the GC guys to drop him tomorrow) but it's still a good bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 06, 2014, 03:20
Rogers @ 81, might sneak a third place.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 06, 2014, 03:21
Pretty annoying sh*t yesterday but Sagan place more than covers, lucky I didn't get around to backing Cav, picked the others pretty well though. Gerrans looked pretty good for top3.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 06, 2014, 09:55
I thought Canc was going to do it for you at one point, but the metres to go graphic just didn't tick down fast enough for him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on July 07, 2014, 07:40
One out of four so far for me.

St.1 each ways on Danny vP and Greipel
St.2 each ways on Valverde and Kwia

Though at the odds quoted his third place did was to cover the Valverde bet.

So today, just on the nose to win as it's a flat one, I have Kittel and Démare.  Kittel is odds on but I just feel like getting another win.  Hope Démare's arm is ok - heard he might have an injury(?) after I placed the bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 07, 2014, 17:12
Vuelta prices are up on PP. Lots of big names competing, so some big-ish prices for outsiders.

Nieve 201ew
Arredondo 251ew
Chaves 301ew

Haven't looked at the course, but presuming the usual type of stages. Probably a year or two early for the Colombians. KoM and stages are more likely, but you never know how it will turn out.

TdF Stage 5

Valverde 201ew with PP

Did surprisingly well on the cobbles earlier on in the season. Doesn't have the strongest of teams to help him out, but if we see something similar to 2010 he could be up there and he has the kick to be up there in a grp finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on July 08, 2014, 11:27
considering this (http://velorooms.com/index.php?topic=5979.msg165584#msg165584), I think Costa to beat Peraud @>2 is quite a good bet. Costa might be interested to finish high up to improve the position of Lampre's team car while Peraud shouldn't bother too much with Bardet being way better positioned anyway.

And even if not, it should still be ~50:50 more or less
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 08, 2014, 19:01
TdF Stage 5

Terpstra v Chavanel 2.2 with PP
Thomas v Roche 2.0 with PP

Terpstra had his little crash today, but didn't seem injured or inconvenienced. Surely the PR champion should be favourite for most H2Hs? Chav got dropped very early on stage 2 - not sure of his form.

The Thomas one I guess you have to factor in the abilities of Froome and Contador (about even I'd guess) and hopefully Thomas' superior exp and skills on the cobbles will give him the edge to avoid trouble of his own.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on July 09, 2014, 11:01
considering this (http://velorooms.com/index.php?topic=5979.msg165584#msg165584), I think Costa to beat Peraud @>2 is quite a good bet. Costa might be interested to finish high up to improve the position of Lampre's team car while Peraud shouldn't bother too much with Bardet being way better positioned anyway.

And even if not, it should still be ~50:50 more or less

that one is a loss

Greipel is available at ~100 with betfair for today, sounds good I think. He did a couple of good races on the cobbles already
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on July 09, 2014, 11:13
I took a piece of the Valverde e/w 200/1 action; he's now come in to 50, so I guess others did too.   Also took a head to head, Talansky v Porte at 5/6.

I've had small results the last three days now - Kwia e/w st.2, Kittel win st.3, Demare e/w st.4, though these barely cover the losing bet of the two each day!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 09, 2014, 12:37
Yeh I took Greipel. I like Degenkolb's chances but in these conditions don't see the point backing anyone <100.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 10, 2014, 18:55
Couple of winners from stage 5, but maybe more by luck rather than judgement. Anything could have happened with those conditions.

TdF Stage 7

Oss 201ew with Bet365
Jarrier 301 with PP

Break could make it tomorrow. Benoit's just one of the riders I see at the highest price that may have a chance to get in the break. Oss could be either one for the break or, if it all comes back together, may be about for a reduced sprint. He said the other day after the sprint on stage 4 he would wait for a harder stage - this finish could give it.

TdF KoM

Voeckler v Rolland 4.0 with PP
Valverde v Nibali 2.75 with PP

Rolland slipping more time again today, which could be good for his KoM chances actually, but I believe he's been suffering a bit from a sore botty. Both have targeted KoM in the past, so anything could happen really in that H2H.

Nibali's been looking the strongest so far, but then again we haven't climbed any mountains yet. Could be different once we hit those, and who knows what alliances will be made and what tactics will play out. As always Valverde's finish could win him some extra MTF KoM points to give him the edge.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on July 10, 2014, 21:49
Cheers Leadbelly, I'm taking the minimum e/w on Jarrier for pot luck and also taking Barta at the same odds.  Going for Albasini over Van Avermaet in the head to head, hoping that the former will be given more license to go for the win than the latter.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 11, 2014, 21:01
Oss just isn't quick enough anymore.  :(

TdF Stage 8

Wyss 201 with PP

Well since Frank is out now, I guess IAM will be going stage hunting crazy. Wyss has been in decent climbing form the past few races, so he's got as good a chance as anyone if he gets in the right break.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 12, 2014, 08:45
Little bit on LRP @34 with Bonascre in the back of one's mind.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 12, 2014, 08:49
Really hard to see a break going all the way, Oleg will want to fight for the win. Bit on Bertie for the win, though I don't think he's at his best >10% if they race hard enough up to the finish then it is to his strengths.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 13, 2014, 10:08
Well a French winner yesterday, so all is not lost. Free bet though, rather than money back - so the PP offer has changed slightly from the Giro.

Barta 201 with PP

Konig and Machado starting to drip, drip, drip time away in the GC. Top 15 may be their aim now, but no reason the team can't go after stages at the same time. Barta's an okay climber and if the weather is changeable again today, then anything could happen.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 14, 2014, 17:53
Well, well, well. Now Froome and Bert are both out, some of our big ante-post bets are starting to look feasible. No chickens have been counted though.

TdF Stage 11

Purito 201 with PP

Not an ideal stage for him, but enough climbing towards the end to maybe give him a chance from the break. The day after definitely isn't for him, so a chance then to rest before the big climbs on Friday and Saturday.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 16, 2014, 09:49
Greipel's Birthday today...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 17, 2014, 17:07
Money back again, courtesy of Gallopin's win the other day.

TdF Stage 13

Martin 201 with PP

If he gets in a break containing Purito, I have difficulty seeing him winning, but he seems to be in amazing form - nothing seems impossible. Maybe a chance to do something this weekend, before a bit of downtime ahead of the TT at the end of next week.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 18, 2014, 16:48
As suggested in chat, will Nibali's dominant win mean more chance for the breaks to succeed?

TdF Stage 14

Kiryienka 201 with PP

Porte's big loss today probably points towards some Sky stage hunting. Nieve is the obvious pick, but is too short (and getting shorter) for a winner from a break I feel. Haven't seen a huge amount of Kiry this race, but he has the history and ability to win from the break on a stage like this.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 25, 2014, 18:18
TdF TT

Chavanel v Kwiatkowski 2.5 with Bet365

Kwiatek's performances the past few days either suggest he's been saving himself for this TT, or that he's absolutely cooked. I'm going for cooked.

Post Merge: July 25, 2014, 18:30
...and Valverde at 26 for a top-3 with Bet365, as a bit of insurance more than anything for my ante-posts. Has been looking a bit weak on the climbs, but he did monster the Spanish TT Champs recently.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 26, 2014, 18:30
Yup, he's cooked. Needs a good break. Doing Pologne would be a bad idea.

Delighted that the other bet lost by so much.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 27, 2014, 19:13
My heart was in my mouth reading in the shoutbox about Peraud crashing today.....

Another to add to the long list of ante-post bets.

TdF GC

Peraud 501ew with PP

Won't win, but if one or two of the big four have bad day/illness/injury he's sure to be one of the pack sniffing round for a podium place. Been shortening elsewhere after his PV performance.

...and who knows what may happen to Froome's back over the next few months, but unfortunately I was a bit late to get on the Kwiatek price myself.

Since it's getting a bit closer though I will have a bit of Pinot 201ew (Bet365) and Mollema 151ew (PP) for the TdF GC.


TdF KoM

Voeckler v Rolland 4.0 with PP

Rolland slipping more time again today, which could be good for his KoM chances actually, but I believe he's been suffering a bit from a sore botty. Both have targeted KoM in the past, so anything could happen really in that H2H.


I guess it shows if you throw enough mud at the wall, some of it will (eventually) stick.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on July 27, 2014, 19:18
good job, really good job. congratulations
.

:beer


:rasmussen :fanfare
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 27, 2014, 19:36
The beers are on me.  :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 30, 2014, 16:46
San Sebastian

Purito 101ew
A. Yates 151ew

Both with PP. Don't think the Purito one needs much explanation. Not in absolute top form, but this new finish looks right up his street with the finish only ~7km from the top of this climb that includes some very steep ramps. in contrast Yates is in very good shape - see Italy this past weekend for details.

Post Merge: July 30, 2014, 16:49
Will add Mollema too at 101ew. Ninth last year and a more selective climb near the end here should suit him better.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on July 30, 2014, 16:59
any idea for tomorrow?

Villumsen tends to finish 2nd in the big races, but who could come 1st then? Gillow?

also not sure Dennis is that much of a favorite
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 30, 2014, 17:08
Don't have the foggiest about the women's TT really. Would have to do some digging/guessing.

Yeah, Dennis has been a bit of a mystery man since the TdS. Might not win, but surely he's still too good for Millar in the H2H at 2.0?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on July 30, 2014, 17:17
Don't have the foggiest about the women's TT really. Would have to do some digging/guessing.

me too, yeh. And just saw Rob Hatch saying that wind might have a major influence, that's probably in Villumsen's favor vs the leightweights

Yeah, Dennis has been a bit of a mystery man since the TdS. Might not win, but surely he's still too good for Millar in the H2H at 2.0?

will probably get voided I think, doesn't make much sense regarding the outright odds
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 31, 2014, 18:59
Pologne Stage 1

Debusschere 151ew with PP

PP have it priced up as Dehaes being the Lotto sprinter, but why not Jens? Stage win in Wallonie the other day beating Meersman, Nizzolo, TVA and Bos. Teams aren't fully finalized yet, but the sprint competition doesn't look that frightening - a top-3 wouldn't take a massive stretch of the imagination.

RR prices are up also for the Commonwealth Games. Anybody seen anything that tickles their fancy? I could be tempted by a random African, but none are priced up so far.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on July 31, 2014, 21:27
Ha - PP have shortened Debusschere to 40 now!  Shame, that looked tasty.  Instead I'll take Ratto at 100ew.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 01, 2014, 18:47
Pologne GC

Geniez v G. Izagirre 2.0 with Bet365

Okay Gorka did just win the Ordiziako Klasika, but I don't think he's ever done a good TT in his life and surely he's going to be working for either his brother or Benat or Amador. As long as Geniez tries here, it looks a safe bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LaVelocipede on August 02, 2014, 00:29
Roche, 140/1 SanSeb...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 02, 2014, 16:59
San Sebastian

Purito 101ew
A. Yates 151ew

Both with PP. Don't think the Purito one needs much explanation. Not in absolute top form, but this new finish looks right up his street with the finish only ~7km from the top of this climb that includes some very steep ramps. in contrast Yates is in very good shape - see Italy this past weekend for details.

Post Merge: July 30, 2014, 16:49
Will add Mollema too at 101ew. Ninth last year and a more selective climb near the end here should suit him better.

Well it's a :betting, but still a bit disappointed after Yates crashed. Reckon he'd beat Purito in a sprint and maybe the gap that Valverde had after the descent wouldn't have been as big.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 02, 2014, 17:14
Commonwealth Men's RR

Dan from Nam 301ew with Bet365

Well I said I'd go with a random African. So Dan it is. Just for fun.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on August 02, 2014, 18:25
Commonwealth Men's RR

Dan from Nam 301ew with Bet365

Well I said I'd go with a random African. So Dan it is. Just for fun.
I approve of that decision!
Go *na Dan!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 02, 2014, 22:41
Nice picks again Leadbelly.  Was in a similar boat, also with Yates and Purito but also had Nieve at 80ew, so your Mollema outdid me nicely there and I just got a very minor win.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 03, 2014, 09:29
Nice one Kev.

Looks like Debusschere isn't on the Pologne start list anymore unfortunately. They're presumably riding for Dehaes these first few days then.

Nobody tempted by Arredondo at 301 for the Pologne GC? Could he gain enough time on stages 5 and 6 before the TT?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 03, 2014, 09:40
I don't know, he lost about a minute to Malori in the ~9km Tirreno ITT, so I think we would need ~1 1/2 to 2 minutes on good time trialists like Izaguirre, Amador, Meyer or Jungels (and several others). Can't really see it happen.

I took Jungels to beat Zakarin for gc at ~2 btw. Says he has recovered from the crash and will go for gc. Zakarin....no idea what do expect. Not too much I think. Lost major time in those italian races last week, and his time trial is nothing special anyway
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 03, 2014, 22:47
Cheers Leadbelly!  Also got a win today, Hutarovich at 40/1 (pennies only for me on that one, but still a bonus tenner back!) after Ratto was removed from the provisional list.

Steele von Hoff is at a long 66/1 for tomorrow's stage - will they definitely be sprinting for Farrar (16/1)?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 03, 2014, 22:57
I think to figure out who was infected by the crashes today and who just was nowhere to be seen because of poor shape will be tough to find out...especially when it comes to Garmin with basically no information available online
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: froome19 on August 03, 2014, 22:58

Nobody tempted by Arredondo at 301 for the Pologne GC? Could he gain enough time on stages 5 and 6 before the TT?
Already lost over 6 min today. He would have to gain more than just time to win.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 07, 2014, 21:15
Don't know what happened to Geniez today, but the H2H looks dead barring a DNF for Gorka.

Pologne Stage 6

Firsanov 151ew with PP

Not sure that he's in the form of previous seasons, but he had some decent results in Italy the other weekend and he finished in eleventh today and looked strong. Maybe just missed the burst to achieve a better result, but maybe we can get something more selective/tactical tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 08, 2014, 21:04
Well, I still have one bet alive in the TdP.  It's :gesink who I got at 150ew before the start.  He has a reasonable shot at the podium tomorrow I think if one of the current top three slip up in their ITT.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 09, 2014, 19:16
Firsanov crashed out.

Eneco GC

Leukemans 301ew
Wellens 401ew

Both with Bet365. Not sure how Wellens will go on the mini RVV stage, but apart from that they're both good all-round riders. The TT is pretty short, so the GC will be more than likely influenced by the two tough stages. Both in decent shape in Wallonie.

Post Merge: August 09, 2014, 19:53
I'll add Roux (or is it Boucher  :P) to that at 351ew, also with Bet365.

Does a good short TT, fast enough to maybe win some bonuses, excellent form (15th at San Sebastian). Only question mark is maybe stage 5 again.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 09, 2014, 22:52
Eneco Stage 1

Vanbilsen 301ew with Bet365

They're talking about it being quite windy on Monday's stage with a few afternoon showers thrown in for good measure. Topsport generally do very well in those sorts of conditions. MvS is also included in the squad, but he's also down for riding in London on the Sunday, so maybe they'll go with Kenny on this first stage.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 12, 2014, 16:33
Eneco Stage 3

Gilbert 201ew with PP

Looks up for the GC so far. Little attack today and we have the evidence from Sunday to show his good form. Won his last prologue at the ZLM Tour and this is only a couple of km longer.

Weather could play a part tomorrow, so an early starter may be in order when we know the actual full results from today.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Dim on August 12, 2014, 16:52
yeh, ive taken gilbert.. £1 each way always worth a punt. Gone Thomas as well. In good form recently
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Dim on August 13, 2014, 19:25
80/1 on Thomas was the winner...

Gilbert failed, and the backer of Cancellera to win failed as well. But i will take the e/w, paid 20/1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Dim on August 13, 2014, 21:51
EBH, 150/1 e/w for Stage 4.

Possibly the biggest waste of £2 ever :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 14, 2014, 20:10
Eneco Stage 5

Roelandts 401ew with PP
Dillier 501ew with PP
Thomas v Dumoulin 2.0 with Bet365

With Gilbert, GVA and others in a good postion in the race it's difficult to see Dillier getting a real chance of doing something, but you never know how race tactics will work out and he has the talent to win on stages like this. Not sure what form Roelandts is in or what his aims are in this race, but it's a big price for someone who finished third at RVV last year. Dumoulin did well on the similar stage last year, but Thomas is in just as good form as Tom and is the more natural rider for this type of stage.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 16, 2014, 20:09
Well I got that one badly wrong the other day about Thomas v Dumoulin. Very strong finish from him.

Eneco Stage 7

Rojas 201ew
Jempy 201ew

Both with Bet365. Neither could hang on today to be in the final selection, but I believe tomorrow isn't quite as tough. Good chances of it being a reduced sprint and hopefully they can stick around and get involved.

Gonna be a nervous day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 17, 2014, 15:50
Firsanov crashed out.

Eneco GC

Leukemans 301ew
Wellens 401ew

Both with Bet365. Not sure how Wellens will go on the mini RVV stage, but apart from that they're both good all-round riders. The TT is pretty short, so the GC will be more than likely influenced by the two tough stages. Both in decent shape in Wallonie.

Post Merge: August 09, 2014, 19:53
I'll add Roux (or is it Boucher  :P) to that at 351ew, also with Bet365.

Does a good short TT, fast enough to maybe win some bonuses, excellent form (15th at San Sebastian). Only question mark is maybe stage 5 again.

Don't know if Jempy or Rojas made the front group today (I suspect not), but frankly who cares. :betting
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 17, 2014, 16:18
biggest odds ever?

only got him at 150-1. but still, not bad, not bad :betting


I would have preferred not to have to worry about how today's stage would unfold though. Glad it still was as easy as expected ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 17, 2014, 16:28
Yeah, my GVK win earlier in the season at DDP was my biggest outright win before this, so it's nice to land the big one.

This thread's doing well recently though - nice wins for yourself, Dim and me. :betting
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 17, 2014, 20:19
 :cool :cool :cool
Had almost forgotten I'd taken you up on the Wellens tip!  "Only" got him at 100/1 but was a pleasant surprise when I just logged in to PP

Thanks - best result of the year so far!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 18, 2014, 16:44
Some other markets for the Vuelta starting to come out now.

Vuelta Stage 1

Ogres 34ew with PP

Not as strong as their Giro TTT squad, but not far off it. Still got six good guys there with just Chaves to keep tagged on if he's going for the GC. Tough to beat OPQS, but the other teams are well within range.

Post Merge: August 18, 2014, 16:50
... and thinking about it a bit further, since I've rated OPQS so highly I might as well have them at 7 (but just a single). Should be favourtites no?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 18, 2014, 18:58
Vuelta KoM

Tschopp 501ew with PP

Not a fan of outright KoM bets usually. Too much of a crap shoot, but this one might have legs. Tschopp's a decent climber and he's already talked about going for stage wins. So hopefully that means no hanging around trying to get a top-20 in the GC, but instead looking to get in as many breaks as possible. He's targeted and won KoM jerseys in the past - Romandie this year and PN in 2013. He just has to make sure he gets in the break on stage sixteen!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 21, 2014, 18:40
Vuelta Team Classement

OPQS 201 with Bet365

A lot of strong teams about, but OPQS didn't do badly at the Giro in this competition with just three riders contributing mainly. Those three are back and I reckon the others will have a freer rein than they did in the Giro to get in breaks etc. Also with two TTs they should make some big gains there.  ;)

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 22, 2014, 09:35
Well if Horner's out, I'll take Winner at 26 with PP for top-ten in the GC. Looked in good nick in Utah, and racing there is good prep for the Vuelta (or so they say).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 22, 2014, 17:16
Markets are up already for stages two and three on PP.  :shh

Vuelta Stage 3

Arredondo 151ew

Tried mapping the final km or so on tracks4bikers, but I wasn't having much success in getting an accurate reading of the gradient. I'm not sure about the accuracy of the last km profile from the official site either (I don't see a downhill last 200m unless the line is somewhere different than stated). However I'll go with it being a bit selective and hope Harry can show his punchiness.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 22, 2014, 19:58
looks like a good bet, indeed

I took Moreno to win the points classification (only got him @26, but he is also available @41 with betvictor)

if you remember last year: he won two stages in the first couple of days and was leading relatively comfortable, before he crashed on stage 10 and barely score any points anymore. In the end he still only came ~30 points short of winning the jersey.

he seems to be in good shape, and there are a handful of stages perfectly suited to him in the first half of the Vuelta again this year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 23, 2014, 20:22
Yeah he looked strong at Burgos, could be just coming into form at the right time.

Quite glad Movistar won by a few seconds. Would have been quite tiresome to lose the win portion of the Ogres bet by 0.01 seconds or whatever it was. Still, the ew bit was a winner.

Just out of interest did anyone see Cannondale's price beforehand?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: al_pacino on August 23, 2014, 21:21
Yeah he looked strong at Burgos, could be just coming into form at the right time.

Quite glad Movistar won by a few seconds. Would have been quite tiresome to lose the win portion of the Ogres bet by 0.01 seconds or whatever it was. Still, the ew bit was a winner.

Just out of interest did anyone see Cannondale's price beforehand?

Didn't see the Cannondale odds but did have a little on the winners. This thread "inspired" me to place a few quid.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 24, 2014, 10:41
talking about Cannondale...

Stage 2: Boivin @251 e/w with bet365

according to himself, he is Cannondale's designated sprinter for the bunch sprints...

I can't really see Sagan turning into a leadout man for the Canadian Cannonball, but who knows...if it really happens, everything is possible. Worth a try I think, with that info
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 24, 2014, 17:25
looks like Boivin's blog is written by Oscar Gatto...  :S
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 24, 2014, 20:04
Ooof!  Narrow fail today on Farrar each way at 66/1.  Damn! :angry
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 25, 2014, 19:55
No dice with Harry today.

Vuelta Stage 4

Hooters 126ew with Bet365

It's one of these bets that I'm already questioning the logic of. The finishing loop does contain a cat 2 climb, but it's 8km at 4.8% (according to cycling quotes), so I'm hoping he can hold on over that or get back on in the final 26km to the finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 26, 2014, 00:06
I can't really see him winning, but who knows...sometimes the sprinters lack a bit of a kick after a hard effort the day before - and if that really is the case for Bling and Bouhanni it could be more or less everyone's race...

I also took Tony Martin, was at 126, now still at 101 with willhill. I didn't look that up now, but in a perceived 90% of the time he goes for an attack in a finish like this while the sprinters teams are still trying to re-organize themselves.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 26, 2014, 09:07
Yes you're probably right. Think I was swayed too much by the 2008 result. Let's hope for a very slow pace.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 26, 2014, 19:51
no real try from Martin today, a bit unusual, those sprinters teams left didn't look particularly strong...

Arredondo lost 10 minutes today. If he just had a bad day he might turn into an interesting contender for the mountain jersey...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on August 26, 2014, 19:58
Hooters 126ew with Bet365
Who is Hooters, anyway? Those nicknames sometimes confuse me. I mean, everybody knows Bling or Piti. But Hooters? :S
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 26, 2014, 20:06
Who is Hooters, anyway? Those nicknames sometimes confuse me. I mean, everybody knows Bling or Piti. But Hooters? :S

Hutarovich and I'm on him again for tomorrow's stage. :fp

151ew with Bet365

He's struggling in this heat, but it's an easier climb tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 26, 2014, 20:54
In terms of overall bets, I've done the following

Berhane each way 500/1 - it looks like the rumours of his rise were a little premature!  Oh well.
Zubeldia each way 500/1 - this one looks a bit better!  Quite why he is so long is a surprise to me
Barguil each way 200/1 - he is a more likely rider for a breakthrough this time


Also KoM, as advised!
Tschopp 500/1

And to win the team classification:
OPQS 150/1
• Ag2R 400/1
• Trek 500/1


A few clearly dead bets already!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 27, 2014, 09:10
Arredondo lost 10 minutes today. If he just had a bad day he might turn into an interesting contender for the mountain jersey...

from Deignan's blog:

I found myself in a group of about 10 or 12 riders, mostly sprinters [...], but Colombian climber Julian Arredondo, who won the Giro stage where I was third in May, was also there. He told me he was taking it easy and would just be going for stages later on in this Vuelta.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 29, 2014, 19:54
Some points for Tschopp today, but getting dropped by De Marchi doesn't bode well for further on in the competition. Especially if Harry or Kenny or Thibaut decide to go for it.

Vuelta Stage 8

Hofland v Matthews 2.2 with Bet365

Could be an interesting stage if we get echelons etc and Belkin would normally be the better team at exploiting those conditions. Even if that doesn't come to pass, Matthews has looked a bit off the pace in the full on sprints on stages two and five - Hofland finished ahead in both of these.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on August 29, 2014, 21:27
Stage 8

Mondory 200/1 e/w on PP
Reynes 150/1 e/w on PP

Am I totally misreading this, or are Bouhanni, Degenkolb and Matthews such strong favourites that these guys are thought to have no chance of the podium?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: al_pacino on August 29, 2014, 22:39
Stage 8

Mondory 200/1 e/w on PP
Reynes 150/1 e/w on PP

Am I totally misreading this, or are Bouhanni, Degenkolb and Matthews such strong favourites that these guys are thought to have no chance of the podium?

Not so much Matthews but the other two do seem the strongest sprinters and IMO make the e/w market a bit more difficult.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 30, 2014, 08:52
I guess with it being a much flatter stage, the bookies think their teams will ride for Hutarovich and Pelucchi, but Mondory and Reynes seem in decent nick, so who knows.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 31, 2014, 19:40
Less said about that h2h the better.  :P

Vuelta Stage 10

Valverde 501ew with PP

Not at his best in the final TT at the TdF, but he's better than that. Was getting fatigued there after a hard three weeks, whereas here it's just over a week in, it's after a rest day, it's on home soil and things are still very much to play for.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 03, 2014, 09:04
Vuelta Stage 11

Deignan 201
G. Caruso 201
Bilbao 201

All micro singles with PP. Another stage for the break maybe? Don't have a lot of time, but it's a tough final ascent. So just picked the three climbers I liked from the biggest price bracket (didn't see anybody at 300). Obviously team orders could play a part for Deignan and Caruso if their leaders need their help, but a chance worth taking anyway.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on September 03, 2014, 13:30
Vuelta Team Classement

OPQS 201 with Bet365

A lot of strong teams about, but OPQS didn't do badly at the Giro in this competition with just three riders contributing mainly. Those three are back and I reckon the others will have a freer rein than they did in the Giro to get in breaks etc. Also with two TTs they should make some big gains there.  ;)

Worth revisiting this one today, with the withdrawals of Morabito and Quintana.  OPQS move up to first place in the provisionals I think.

With most of my other Vuelta overall bets looking dead, I upped the stakes on this last night following Quintana's TT - hopes are being pinned on Uran, Serry and Poels.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 03, 2014, 15:05
Have they changed it how the team comp works? I thought it was just the times of the first 3 finishers on each stage that were added together? So Nairo's times from previous stages should all still count I think.

Even so Quintana dropping out is good news (from the point of view of the bet), but I still think they still need to get into a winning break or two (or three) to have a chance.

Should be fun watching how they get on anyway.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on September 03, 2014, 15:29
Ah, my bad, yes.  I had it down as three best overall times.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 04, 2014, 18:27
ToB prices are up on PP

Let's follow some JSG advice and back Cummings at 67ew. Good TTing all year and not bad climbing, his teams leader and second twice before in this competition. What could possibly go wrong.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on September 04, 2014, 20:30
I'm too late to that party - he's already come in to 18!

Taking Stannard at 125, just in case something happens to Wiggins' challenge.  Seems a bit unlikely as he will be coming back to fitness but he's got all the attributes to win it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 05, 2014, 21:00
took Poels for tomorrow @201 (also @251 with ladbrokes)

said he'd expect to to be allowed to join a breakaway later on in the race, so tomorrow might come too early, but ~200 for someone who was 3rd from the bunch on Zoncolan this year as a domestique (20th in the result, but 17 riders in front came from a breakaway) and 2nd on Angliru earlier on in his career looks okay to me on a climb like this
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 07, 2014, 20:56
Those pesky Katushan midgets kill the team classement bet. Think that's all my Vuelta bets dead unless Winner somehow or other gets back into the top-ten.

The KoM title is still very open. A good day tomorrow for anyone who gets in the break could see them rocket right into contention. Some tempting riders at 501. Any thoughts?

ToB Stage 2

Kittel 34 with PP

Have had a bit of a look at the final climb tomorrow. Doesn't look super tough and although he's probably not in top shape here, we've seen at times that Kittel can get over small bumps (one in Dubai sticks in my mind) and if he does make it into the final sprint then he's got to be favourite.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 07, 2014, 22:19
Clarke said he has tried to join the breakaway for two days in a row, so he will probably give it another try tomorrow & is a former winner - but he surely is not good enough?!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 08, 2014, 09:51
I guess it depends who goes in the break with him. He's got a kick though, so that could play in his favour and who knows how the weather will change things. Who would have predicted Ratto's stage win last year.

I had been thinking Poels or Evans for the KoM, but their prices have shrunk a bit overnight, so I probably won't bother. Evans has been a strange one, he had that really good TT, but then getting dropped very early on other days. He's the sort of rider who could do it though if he had the motivation/permission.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 10, 2014, 19:30
ToB Stage 5

Dowsett 126 with PP

Could be in the mix from either the botd or with a late attack. Ol' Alex has been pretty active so far in the race. He tried late on stage 2 (similar finish tomorrow) and if Chavanel had helped him maybe they could have made it stick. He was also in the break today for a while, but a mechanical/puncture put paid to his chances and he seemed rather angry on Twitter about not being allowed some assistance to get back to the break after this misfortune. So he's just got to channel that anger tomorrow into a stage win.

GP Quebec prices are up too. Not much about, but I'll take Gautier at 151ew. Fourth at Plouay recently and if Coquard can't make the final selection has a decent turn of speed of his own.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 11, 2014, 22:49
can't bet with Paddy Power, but Yannick Martinez @301 looks very tempting. For a sprinter, he was super strong on the mountain stages last weekend + already made it into a breakaway going to the end once (when Hesjedal won, Martinez was working for Sicard until the final climb when half of the break was already dropped).

If he can make it tomorrow I can very well see him winning - and maybe even if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 13, 2014, 18:37
One final Vuelta bet

Stage 21

Valverde 401ew with PP

Had him for the main TT and he did okay there, but this shorter stuff is more to his liking. First half looks quite technical with numerous roundabouts. Second half looks more for power types, but with not many big specialists left there's always a chance for a bit of a surprise.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 15, 2014, 18:27
That rain.  :angry

Worlds RR

Uran 301ew with PP

Going to need a tough race to get rid of the sprinter types, but is fairly quick himself from a small group. Good one day pedigree, but obviously has a question mark on form after his early abandonment of the Vuelta. If he has the form though you'd think he should be around the price of folk like Nibali, Sammy Sanchez etc (~100).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 15, 2014, 18:28
his participation in the TTT has just been cancelled as he is not fit yet though
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 15, 2014, 18:37
Probably explains the price a bit, but let's be positive, the RR is seven days after the TTT and I'd guess OPQS wouldn't have viewed him as essential to their success (they've got plenty of others who can fill in).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 17, 2014, 16:30
Women's RR

Brennauer 101ew with PP

I won't pretend to know much about women's cycling, but Lisa has had some good results this year. Fairly quick too.

Post Merge: September 17, 2014, 16:41
...and I'll add Olds to that at 151ew and Cordon at 201ew, also with PP. I guess my thinking is, if the PP compiler makes so many mistakes with Men's races, then the number in Women's should be astronomical.  :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 19, 2014, 21:00
any thoughts about Betancur?

took him 8 weeks from being completely out of shape and way too heavy in San Luis to easily win Paris Nice.

will ~7 weeks from Burgos to the worlds be enough to do the same?

could also end up abandoning the race early, but 250-1 for one of the maybe ~5 best riders in the world for a race like this is huge I think...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 19, 2014, 21:55
Difficult to know. There didn't seem to be much evidence of substantial improvement as the Vuelta progressed, but the same thing happened last year and he still managed a decent showing at the Worlds.

I guess it's similar to my Uran bet with there being a big question mark over the rider's shape, but if either of them can find the form then they could be in with a shout, and at such big odds there's not much to lose either way.

No recent photos of him kicking round the internet?

Speaking of Rigo, he posted this. Anybody any idea what he's saying? Doesn't look too ill, which brings a little confidence.

https://vine.co/v/OWFn5uTUwuU
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 22, 2014, 18:18
Women's TT

Sablikova 501 with PP

Rain and changing conditions seems to be the underlying theme so far of Ponferrada. So a micro bet on one of the early starters for tomorrow. Not much of a checkable racing career, but seems a decent TT-er.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 22, 2014, 18:45
a strong early starter, that's exactly what I was looking for earlier on as well.

Sablikova seems to be a very good choice, multiple speed skating world champion and gold medal winner at the winter Olympics. I just read some statements in czech media and those say she now wants to focus more on cycling to also win a gold medal at the summer olympics in 2016.

This year she has done double of the amount of km on the bike she usually does, and her trainer says Top 5 or maybe even a medal is a realistic target.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: LukasCPH on September 22, 2014, 18:58
She was 9th in Valkenburg already, so with more training and focus a medal isn't impossible.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 22, 2014, 19:05
http://supercycling.cz/novinky/mistrovstvi-sveta-silnicni-cyklistika/martina-sablikova-jde-do-boje-desitka-bude-super-rika/#.VCBkMfldWic

Yeah I did a bit of digging too (after I made the bet  :S). Some positive things, but she also says she hates the rain. So we need some help from Mother Nature and Old Father Time just to get the rain falling at the right point of the afternoon.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on September 22, 2014, 19:07
SOLOVEY Anna  could or most likely will go full retard for tomorrow fwiw

might be something to look ad with EVD being the fav ??
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 22, 2014, 19:14
SOLOVEY Anna  could or most likely will go full retard for tomorrow fwiw

might be something to look ad with EVD being the fav ??

maybe, yes, I think I took her last year already, but the Russians might be a bit less cautious this time

edit: *ua, whatever
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 26, 2014, 09:25
U23 RR

Doull 301ew
Kozhatayev 301ew

Both with PP. Was hoping that watching the Junior race this morning might help solidify some ideas about the circuit, but I still don't have the foggiest.  :D

Just some micros at big prices. Doull's quick, but can he get to the finish with the leaders? Kozh is the better climber, but has he got a kick to beat others. Just fun bets really.

Post Merge: September 26, 2014, 10:11
Both with Bet365 and not with PP. Brain fade.  :S
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 27, 2014, 17:15
Second for Lisa in the RR.  :cool

Could have been even better as she finished strongly despite a poor position. Ah well.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 30, 2014, 17:16
Milano-Torino

Rebellin 201ew with PP

Some big names about, but with his consistency you'd hope he would be there or there about in the top 10, and if some of those names are already in holiday mode then he could take advantage.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 02, 2014, 17:20
Unlucky Dave.

GdL

Finetto 201ew with PP

In very good form the past set of races - making the front grp in pretty much all of them. Maybe the chances of an outsider are also increased due to the course being different from previous years. The newness will prevent people from knowing when and where is the best place to attack - could see a surprise or two.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on October 02, 2014, 17:26
are there any odds out there for Alberto's attempt at Giro-Tour double?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 02, 2014, 18:25
Haven't seen anything on the bookies I use. Don't usually get Giro odds till Feb (?), but I guess there could be a special about if you checked all the sites, or just go into a bookies on the street and ask for the odds.

What would the odds likely be? 7.5ish (~2 for the Giro and ~3.75 seems the average for the TdF)?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on October 02, 2014, 19:57
Haven't seen anything on the bookies I use. Don't usually get Giro odds till Feb (?), but I guess there could be a special about if you checked all the sites, or just go into a bookies on the street and ask for the odds.

What would the odds likely be? 7.5ish (~2 for the Giro and ~3.75 seems the average for the TdF)?

hmmm...

I thought it would be in the 20-30 range because many people seem to think he'd be lucky to finish top 3 at the TDF after il Giro. But indeed taking into account the Tour odds it's probably lower
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: al_pacino on October 03, 2014, 20:55
Unlucky Dave.

GdL

Finetto 201ew with PP

In very good form the past set of races - making the front grp in pretty much all of them. Maybe the chances of an outsider are also increased due to the course being different from previous years. The newness will prevent people from knowing when and where is the best place to attack - could see a surprise or two.

Down to 801 on bet365 by the time they got the market up.

Had a little on Sicard @ 400/1 and I couldn't help it Betancur @250/1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 10, 2014, 21:17
Who needs off-season guessing games when we have gambling.  :P

ToB GC

Gilbert 151ew with PP

I remember last year Intxausti picking up a bonus second on one of the earlier stages. Unfortunately I only used that bit of info for a H2H on the emperor stage and not for the GC, so when Phil went off the front of the peloton today to pick that one second up, I was immediately reminded of it. Sanchez is the "designated leader", but Phil could be around there on Monday - the climb's not that tough (the not dissimilar Bakelants for instance was only 13 seconds down last year).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 14, 2014, 17:47
That's the other thing about the off-season guessing game. They don't do cash prizes.

:P :betting

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 17, 2014, 07:19
are there any odds out there for Alberto's attempt at Giro-Tour double?

Skybet have a market on winning all three GTs - AC is at 23 for that.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on October 17, 2014, 08:35
23 for winning all 3 :Poo:  :Sleepy: I'd have thought 150-200 or so
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 22, 2014, 17:48
Cycling season is over, but there are still some markets up for races in 2015

TdF GC

Barguil 501ew with PP

I guess the big question is whether he rides it or not. The answer is currently dunno, but they're tempting odds even if it does end up just as money back. The short amount of ITT seems a big plus for him and Giant seemed to have got their act together a bit recently as regards TTT, so the losses in those disciplines would be limited. I don't see why he can't have a performance next year of a similar level to Bardet's this year.

Any thoughts on TVA for MSR? Would he be even picked?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 25, 2014, 15:49
23 for winning all 3 :Poo:  :Sleepy: I'd have thought 150-200 or so

6 for the Giro-Tour double at Billy Hills.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on October 25, 2014, 18:53
6 for the Giro-Tour double at Billy Hills.

WTF

6 at TDF or Giro is like 3rd or 4th fave right?

Seems crazy low odds
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on October 25, 2014, 21:38
WTF

6 at TDF or Giro is like 3rd or 4th fave right?

Seems crazy low odds

I don't know, there's not much sense in playing a bet like this anyway, its basically an accumulator on him winning the Giro first and then the Tour.

Its pure mathematics, if he is evens for the Giro (@~2, as Quintana and Wiggins were, approximately), then you could also bet (for example) 100 Euro on him first and then wager (after he has won) all the winnings on him to win the Tour at ~3 or 4 or whatever it will be - its exactly the same as putting a bet on the double. (2*3=6)

of course, if he wins the Giro by 20 minutes odds on him to win the Tour might shrink as well, so by playing that early bet on the double you can secure the "good" odds for the Tour - but its unlikely it'll be much lower then I
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on November 09, 2014, 16:39
MSR

Lobato 201ew with PP

Was reading his interview with Biciciclismo (http://www.biciciclismo.com/es/lobato-ambiciona-ganar-algo-grande-en-el-2015-06-11-2014) and MSR is on his mind. The weather played a part this year, but his fourth was still a bit of a surprise. However if they run the same course in 2015 (which I think they are), I can't see why he couldn't be up there with the other quicks and should be at similar prices to them.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on December 28, 2014, 12:08

TdF GC

Barguil 501ew with PP

I guess the big question is whether he rides it or not.

Looks like it's on.

Now he just has to beat Contador, Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Purito......    :wut
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on December 28, 2014, 17:24
Looks like it's on.

Now he just has to beat Contador, Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Purito......    :wut


...Pinot, Bardet, TJ, Valverde...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on December 31, 2014, 12:13
Bertie is 2.25 for the Giro, seems kinda high given no one else is really racing it. If the situation in April is as it stands now he should be ~1.60.

EW value

Hesjedal @ 51
Basso @ 67 (though he will likely open higher in other markets unless he does something before May)
Scarponi @ 126 (I will definitely hit this if he shows signs of having recovered from Padova)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on December 31, 2014, 19:55
Bertie is 2.25 for the Giro, seems kinda high given no one else is really racing it. If the situation in April is as it stands now he should be ~1.60.

EW value

Hesjedal @ 51
Basso @ 67 (though he will likely open higher in other markets unless he does something before May)
Scarponi @ 126 (I will definitely hit this if he shows signs of having recovered from Padova)

Really? I don't think I would go for Basso or Scarponi if they were 1,000/1.

Bertie at 2.25 is good though. Betancur at 25s too.

I'm going to have a fiver EW on Cunego at 150/1.

Damn I meant Caruso
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on December 31, 2014, 20:16
What a dopey sh*te I am. Placed a fiver EW on Cunego rather than Caruso. Paddy Power voided the bet thankfully, so put £2.50 EW on fat Carlos for the Giro and £2.50 EW on Bouhanni for Green at the Tour. Both at 25/1.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 05, 2015, 08:07
wtf Durbridge @ 10 for the ITT

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 05, 2015, 16:58
Quite fancy Howson at 33.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 06, 2015, 02:39
Meyer is out, Rogers and Porte confirmed starters are also decent value. Good odds on Dennis not to win if you got the best prices.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 08, 2015, 10:44
Hmm, my least best winner but probably lucky in the end.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 10, 2015, 08:56
Tempted by Barbie EW after he talked himself up :o
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on January 10, 2015, 12:24
Excepting Paddy are any other bookies offering odds for Australian RR?

Nevermind , I found the other bookies(Bet365, Bet Victor and Sky Bet)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on January 10, 2015, 16:59
Odds seem more generous on the whole at Paddy Power, apart from Porte who's 4/1 at bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 10, 2015, 17:14
Earle at 125-1 with paddy looks decent.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on January 10, 2015, 19:03
Tempted by Barbie EW after he talked himself up :o

i think this is THE year FWIW




might have said the same last year

and the year before

and .... :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 10, 2015, 23:39
Earle at 125-1 with paddy looks decent.

No EW but I guess with a bit of one two with Richie he should win.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 10, 2015, 23:44
kkkkkkk I got dis

Evens @ 4.50
CM EW @ 8
Barbie @ 26
TOT=GT @ 126
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 11, 2015, 09:39
Nice one Arb. Another good start to the year for you.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on January 11, 2015, 09:59
Nice one ARB. I actually took your advice and placed a bet on Haussler so thanks!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 11, 2015, 10:08
Great, I was a bit worried I didn't have him each way but was confident of him coming over the top of Ewan in that situation.

We learned absolutely nothing about the TDU favourites so hope for some surprise odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 13, 2015, 15:41
I resisted the temptation of the Nats, but I've caved in for the TDU.

TDU GC

Impey 41 with PP

Ogres say they are after stages and to animate the action, but with Impey they still have a chance for the GC I feel. Fast enough to pick up some of the bonuses at certain stage finishes and importantly at the intermediates.

Post Merge: January 13, 2015, 16:00
Don't like backing under 100 though, so.....  :D

TDU Stage 2

Haas 101ew with PP

Showed good speed last year in various races. Stirling finish is usually too tough for a lot of the sprinters, so Haas could do very well here.



Post Merge: January 13, 2015, 16:00
That Impey one is ew btw.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 14, 2015, 10:11
Hmm Haig 151, pity there is nothing for Power.

Mick should really top3 so will take him @ 19
+ Kennaugh @ 101.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 14, 2015, 10:31
There are some really good pure punt plays on Stage 2. This field is bad, practically no one from the top10 in the last three years. Impey could go ok but Meersman is the only one of those sprinters that is at fair odds, dunno about his form though, maybe just cover with him...

So

Meersman @ 10 (win only)
Evans @ 23
Clarke @ 67
Rogers @ 151
Lindeman @ 151

Heaps more if you want... LLS, Hesjedal, Porte, Hansen, Stannard.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 17, 2015, 23:30
Tempted to go Manzin, because CQ.

Anyway, CJ @ 34.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 17, 2015, 23:34
Tempted to go Manzin, because CQ.

Anyway, CJ @ 34.
I've got £2.50 EW on Manzin at 125/1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 17, 2015, 23:36
Ah nice, only found him for 81 @ 365, a bit short :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 18, 2015, 00:04
Ah nice, only found him for 81 @ 365, a bit short :P

Paddy power still 125
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 19, 2015, 08:34
Pinny have Kittel @ 2.40... seems kinda high. there are a couple of false flats and the finish is 2-3% but he doesn't get dropped on speed bumps anymore. Potential for a decent headwind though so probably enough doubt there.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on January 19, 2015, 13:32
#ccc at the Giro

Schummi for the 60 ITT  :s :s :s  :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 19, 2015, 14:14
Bet365 are quick off the mark. Got CCC riders added to the Giro and MSR markets already.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on January 19, 2015, 15:35
My picks for stage 1:

Bonifazio 51 ew
Wippert 26 ew
V Hoff 31 ew

GC picks

Evans 10
LLS 26 ew
Impey 15
Meersman 101

Stage 2

Wippert 101 ew
Meersman 10
Lobato 11
Evans 23 too
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on January 19, 2015, 15:36
Do anybody know if there will be odds for San Luis?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 19, 2015, 16:01
Haven't seen any. Think Ladbrokes and somebody else had it last year, but haven't checked to see if they're doing the same this year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 21, 2015, 07:18
Far, far, far too early from Haas.   :(

Least Impey got some bonifications.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on January 21, 2015, 12:43
Great win for Lobato and good money for me. Got to say I had a lot of success early on this season. I started by following Arb advice and won on Haussler at the Nationals. Then a 67 ew bet on Wippert at PCC and now Lobato at 11.0. I also had Bonifazio 51.00 ew but the break was just too strong in the end.

Bet for San Luis Stage 3:

Gatto 26.0 Ew


Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 24, 2015, 14:25
TDU Stage 6

Sutton 201ew with PP

Porte may say the race isn't over yet, but realistically it is. So I don't see why CJ might not get the chance to go for the sprint tomorrow. Won this stage back in 2010 and was fourth at the Cancer Classic last weekend, so with a dollop of luck he could be sniffing around the podium here.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 27, 2015, 10:58
I think it's a day for checking the ante-post markets.   :nerd:
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 27, 2015, 11:36
MSR

Navardauskas 126ew with Bet365
Bole 301ew with PP

Just noticed Ramunas was drifting a bit. Don't know if he's riding it yet which is always a bit of a gamble, but with Cannondale's lack of a sprinter, he's probably their quickest finisher. Certainly showed some good pace in some races towards the end of last year and after 300km anything can happen.

RVV

Devenyns 301ew with Bet365

Difficult to see a situation where Dries can win, but it's not that much a stretch to see him coming to the finish in a small grp - he made that select group of 12 or so last year when he was working for Degenkolb. This year he's with IAM, I guess he'll have a co-leader type role at RVV. He could have to work for Haussler or Chavanel depending on how the race goes, but that's much less certain that it was with JD.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 31, 2015, 11:18
GORR

Lagutin 201ew with PP

Reduced group sprint seems the most likely option. Not sure if Tsatevich will make that goup, so Sergey might be a better option (depending on who else is in the group). Seemed in okay form at the TdU when working for Machado.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 02, 2015, 21:00
Dubai GC

Ruffoni 301ew with Bet365

The GC seems to boil down to whether the punchers can make up enough time on stage 3 to overtake the sprinters who've gained bonifications on the other three sprint stages (or alternatively drop the sprinters before they even get to the final kick). Not too sure which way it will go, but if Ruffoni can pick up some bonuses in the first two stages then he might try and hold on to the end of stage 3.

JD looks pretty tempting at 8 despite what his team says.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 02, 2015, 22:24
JD looks pretty tempting at 8 despite what his team says.

maybe, yes, if they don't go for Mezgec in the flat sprints. Hard to see Haga or Ludvigsson really fighting it out with Valverde and so on.

Vino said Nibali will help Lutsenko by the way, but for him it'll be tough to really win as well I guess. There might still be some value at 80-1 though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on February 03, 2015, 00:30
lobato is probably a good shout too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 05, 2015, 18:47
Ah well. No bonifications for Ruffoni.

Stage 3

Chernetskiy 126ew with Bet365

Not convinced that Purito is here to do anything other than get some miles in his legs. Seems to have been hanging round the back of the peloton a lot, and especially on stage one he could have lost time very easily. Cherno would on paper be the next most likely rider to try something tomorrow. Pretty punchy and has some nice results on similar-ish types of finishes, but a lot will depend on just getting into the prime position going through that final right hander.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 06, 2015, 21:36
Just a couple of quickies since I'm shattered.

Qatar GC

Pozzato 126ew with Bet365

In a bit of form at Dubai. Team doesn't have the options that others do, but if the wind blows he could be up there.

Qatar Stage 1

D. Van Pimple 101ew with Bet365

Strong sprinting field in Qatar, but it's the first day's racing for a few of them - Sagan, Demare and Kristoff. Bouhanni's train needs a bit of work, Modolo was getting beaten by Gaviria too let's not forget and Kittel was nowhere in the TdU. Maybe Danny can profit from these rusty riders.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on February 06, 2015, 22:19
I'm tempted by Oliveira at 150
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 07, 2015, 10:02
He's at 301 at Bet365 if you have an account there.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on February 08, 2015, 10:12
For today stage I have:

Bennet 67.0 ew
Danny V. Poppel 126.0 ew
Haussler 34.0 ew
Bos 81.0 ew

For GC:

Sagan 15 .0
 

Hope one of them at least podium...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 08, 2015, 18:41
Qatar GC

Stannard 101ew with PP

With Wiggins losing time today it looks like it will be up to Stan and Rowe to contest the GC. Just off the podium in 2014 in Qatar, a solid TT-er (11th last year and had to go when the conditions weren't ideal) and one of the more aggressive and savvy of the Sky riders.

Post Merge: February 08, 2015, 20:12
...and back again with DVP at 201ew with Bet365 for Stage 2.  :D

He didn't make the split today, but the initial plan was for him to contest the sprint and not Stuyven. Stuyven did okay, but he was in a great position and didn't really make any headway against the other sprinters, so hopefully Danny will be given the nod if he can manage to get to the finish in the leading group.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on February 10, 2015, 08:00
Brandle 67.0 ew for this stage. Hope his form is good.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 17, 2015, 19:09
That was tiresome about Stannard.

Oman Stage 2

Costa 151ew with Bet365

I'll steal search's analysis of the stage. Last year this finish produced a group sprint due to a headwind on the climb, but the year before produced a different type of result. Less distance this year too after the descent is over, so maybe that pushes the advantage away from the quicks towards people like Rui.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on February 17, 2015, 19:48
looks good, also Trentin @34 maybe if it turns out to be a group sprint

for the Andalucia TT I took a small bet on Ludvigsson Top 3 @15, last year he started the season with a win in the Etoile de Bessèges over a more or less similar distance (including a short climb though)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on February 17, 2015, 22:38
Engoulvent could be worth a quid at 125/1 for stage 1b of Ruta tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 05, 2015, 08:32
I have a feeling my betting is going to suffer with having very little time currently to watch the races.  :(

SB

Lutsenko 251ew
Canola 301ew

Both with PP. I wouldn't say either are experts on sterrata, but in the highlights that I have seen them this year they have both impressed (mechs notwithstanding). Canola (riding with the inexperienced Italian Nat team here) especially surprised me with some strong performances and the move to UHC and the increased amount of leadership opportunities seems to have had a good effect on him. Fingers crossed anyway.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 05, 2015, 21:51
Paris-Nice GC

Frank 201ew with Bet365

Similarly to last year, Frank has had a slow start to the season. It was only at CI in 2014 that he burst into life, but I don't see why he can't perform here. None of the big four are riding and the field is a lot more open than TA. His TT-ing has improved a lot since his BMC days so the two chronos shouldn't provide too much of an obstacle.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on March 10, 2015, 11:08
Quinziato not looking great value on this :fp

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 10, 2015, 11:27
great value indeed :P - he might have a shot at the prologue though

that's a tough one by the way, I'd say it favors the good sprinters, doesn't it? with 6 accelerations necessary in the first half of it...I took a small one on Farrar at ~150 e/w. Sagan might have some value as well.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on March 11, 2015, 11:49
Betfair is well worth a look for the upcoming classics. Just put £2 EW on Vandenbergh at 80/1 for Roubaix, might increase that depending on how his form looks.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on March 12, 2015, 08:50
Hello all, long time no see.

I've taken Ciolek for today's Tirreno flat stage at 151ew with PP.  They have Eddie Boss priced up shorter though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2015, 09:40
And Farrar, and Goss
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 12, 2015, 17:08
PN Stage 5

Bonifazio 126ew
S. Dumoulin 151ew
Hivert 201ew

Some tempters on PP. None of them have been anywhere so far this week really, but this is the sort of finish that could suit the two bigger priced riders better. From viewing search's video in the race thread it's a bit of a drag up to the line and that should suit Hivert especially and even Dumoulin going by his win the other week.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 13, 2015, 07:28
yep, I had Dumoulin in mind for this stage for a week already. If Kwiatkowski wants to take another 10 bonus seconds, he will though, I guess. Looks tailor made for him
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 14, 2015, 22:50
PN TT

Chavanel 51 (top 3)

Despite his good form this week, the weather probably needs to be nasty again for him to have a shout. He's been top ten on this course before. The forecast is for rain tomorrow and a fairly strong NE wind, but not sure how much that will effect the riders (blocked by the hills?).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 15, 2015, 06:35
flip yeh, it's that time of the year again...

POZZATO @ 81 (M-SR)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 21, 2015, 02:23
Couple more randoms...

Cimolai @ 81
Breschel @ 126
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 24, 2015, 21:01
DDV

Wynants 301ew with PP

No Vanmarcke for Jumbo tomorrow, so they say they're going in with no specific leader. This could give Maarten a chance to shine. 11th and 8th in his last two outings at DDV. The weather doesn't look that bad, but there could be showers and it will be coldish with a chance of the wind playing a part in the outcome.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 26, 2015, 22:00
Catalunya Stage 5

Reza 101ew with Bet365

Haven't really been able to catch much of this race other than today's finish, but tomorrow could be a chance for Reza. That final climb might get rid of some of the chaff, but hopefully not Kevin, and although he hasn't really he shown it this year, he can give a good showing in a reduced group sprint. Just don't stop for a whizz at the wrong time.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 27, 2015, 21:32
GW

Rowe 251ew with Bet365
Leukemans 351ew with Bet365
Burghardt 401ew with PP

Weather forecast looks interesting for the region on Sunday. Overcast with occasional rain and drizzle, but most importantly winds of ~40km/h with gusts of ~55km/h. So I'm putting my eggs in the non-sprint basket and going with some guys who did well today.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on March 31, 2015, 08:28
Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde Stage 1
Adam Blythe 200/1 ew

Odds too good to pass up.  It's going to be unbelievably windy and I reckon any winner of the Circuit of the Fens has got what it takes.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 02, 2015, 07:28
DDP Stage 3a

Downing 351ew with Bet365

Hasn't made the front group on either of the two stages so far, but maybe that can change this morning with a stage of only 111km. Same finish as previous years with that sharp right hander with ~300m to go - get a good position going through that and a podium could be on.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 09, 2015, 13:52
Grand National

Quite a few cycling related horses running on Saturday including last year's winner Pineau De Re. I'm going with....

Carlito Brigante 67ew with Bet365

(http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2012/06/02/1/betancur_2_600.jpg)

Rebel Rebellion 51ew with Bet365

(http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/ARCH_Immagini/Arch_Personaggi%20Italiani/R/rebellin-davide-ansa--324x230.jpg?uuid=93e12402-76aa-11dd-b5fd-788af8f0e2dc)

Duke of Lucca 67ew with Bet365

(http://www.probikekit.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/di-luca-chair-199x300.jpg)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 09, 2015, 20:32
Grand National

Quite a few cycling related horses running on Saturday including last year's winner Pineau De Re. I'm going with....

Carlito Brigante 67ew with Bet365

(http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2012/06/02/1/betancur_2_600.jpg)

Rebel Rebellion 51ew with Bet365

(http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/SoleOnLine4/ARCH_Immagini/Arch_Personaggi%20Italiani/R/rebellin-davide-ansa--324x230.jpg?uuid=93e12402-76aa-11dd-b5fd-788af8f0e2dc)

Duke of Lucca 67ew with Bet365

(http://www.probikekit.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/di-luca-chair-199x300.jpg)

It looks like Duke of Lucca won't make the final 40. 2 runners need to come out by tomorrow morning sometime for him to get a run.

I've had a few quid e/w on Many Clouds and Unioniste for the race. I used to have a fairly decent record in the race but as I don't follow horse racing as much as i used to i don't do aswell with my gambling anymore.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on April 10, 2015, 01:00
I'm taking £5-10 on Shutthefrontdoor before the odds shorten any further, EW on Unioniste as well probably.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 11, 2015, 21:31
It looks like Duke of Lucca won't make the final 40. 2 runners need to come out by tomorrow morning sometime for him to get a run.

I've had a few quid e/w on Many Clouds and Unioniste for the race. I used to have a fairly decent record in the race but as I don't follow horse racing as much as i used to i don't do aswell with my gambling anymore.

It's probably bad etiquette to quote yourself but

 :D :D :D :D :party :party :party :party :D :D :D :D

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 11, 2015, 21:36
..... and true to life Carlos Brigante withdrew lame this morning.  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 11, 2015, 21:38
..... and true to life Carlos Brigante withdrew lame this morning.  :P

Though Duke of Lucca although missing out on a run in the Grand National did win the handicap chase earlier in the day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 21, 2015, 08:48
Finally a TTT... pity Paddy don't offer their free money EW anymore. This TTT lineup is even worse than usual for Trentino with no BMC.

Bora @ 151, they are always good and should top3
Androni @ 251, just because
RVL @ 12

Think CJR can go ok too (lol). Sky should win as they have an ok engine room and should take Astana who are starting a man down.

Also 8 man AG2R who aren't completely useless in TTTs these days v 5 man CULT.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 21, 2015, 08:52
CJR looks ok, yep, took them to beat Bardiani at ~3, most of the team comes right from altitude, and their best timetrialist (Pirazzi) seems to be in horrible shape

Edit: MTN starts with 6 riders only according to the official start list (MTN twitter says 7 though), so that h2h vs Colombia could be interesting - but I don't really know in what way, Colombia is really poor as well without Avila
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 21, 2015, 21:29
That went pretty well...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 26, 2015, 03:41
Scarponi @ 126

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 26, 2015, 16:22
Turkey GC

Bilbao 151ew with PP
 
Just off a successful Vuelta a Castilla y Leon where he had a stage win and only got beaten in the GC by riders of the calibre of Rolland and Intxausti. The level of opposition is lower here, so 151 seems quite generous for quite a weak climbing field.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 01, 2015, 09:20
is that really a sprinter's stage in Yorkshire today?! Anything can happen here I think, with the number of weak teams & riders and Kittel not fit / out of shape (not that he would make it over the climbs anyway)

took Hermans and Cummings E/W at 251 & 351 for a late attack (with 10bet, also at bet365)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 01, 2015, 19:36
both just missed the decisive move, tough luck
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 01, 2015, 22:35
Unlucky search, and I'll steal some of your research for a bet. Hey, it's saves me doing any work.  :P

last week, when asked on Twitter if he would do the Giro, Zakarin replied that Romandie would be his main goal for the season, and that he wasn't in peak form for Pais Vasco yet. If this is true, it will be very interesting to see, what he can do here...

Romandie Stage 5

Zakarin 201ew with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 02, 2015, 22:11
search get's half the credit, but not half the money. :betting  :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 02, 2015, 22:14
that's true indeed, only managed to get him matched at ~75 for the win and ~18 for Top 3...  ;)

wouldn't mind him to also win the race I must say...will be tough though.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on May 03, 2015, 08:18
How ridiculous. Frank is 600/1 for the ITT today yet Bananito is only 300/1. Frankly...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 05, 2015, 22:53
4 Jours de Dunkerque

GC

Konovalovas 151ew with PP

The field in general looks weaker than last year. Combining this with the weather conditions and things could get unpredictable.

Stage 1

Engoulvent 201ew with PP

The weather looks nastiest tomorrow and on stage 4. Winds of over 40km/h expected (with gusts 10-15 higher?) in the afternoon. Let's hope for carnage (of the non-crashing variety).

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 09, 2015, 00:55
Katusha seem overs here
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 10, 2015, 08:09
or not, big time gaps too...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 10, 2015, 17:13
4 Jours de Dunkerque

GC

Konovalovas 151ew with PP

The field in general looks weaker than last year. Combining this with the weather conditions and things could get unpredictable.


Iggy ain't no stooge.   ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 13, 2015, 19:36
Giro Stage 6

Frapporti 501 with Bet365

Let's steal some more research.  :D

I hope Frapporti will try to join the breakaway again though, he already has 40 points from winning the intermediate sprints on stage 2, another 40 points tomorrow would give him a shot to get the points jersey for one day at least, in case Viviani doesn't score too many points at the finish

Not much chance for the break tomorrow, but you never know. Just ask Canola from last year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on May 14, 2015, 11:59
Having a punt on the break making it today as well:

Paterski 501 with PP

Three stage wins this year already.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 20, 2015, 21:14
Wish I'd seen Magic at that price.  :(

Giro Stage 12

Gatto 301ew with PP

Hmmmmm didn't somebody say that Oscar would be targeting this stage.  :lol

The EW was a mis-click due to tiredness, but hey-ho.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: kevchenko13 on May 22, 2015, 22:52
Time trials!

Long shots but you never know...

Pirazzi 151 (on the nose and more than I wanted to bet; fat fingers)
Formolo 251ew
Cataldo 18 on the nose
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 10, 2015, 17:14
First time I've logged into PP for a while.

Dauphine Stage 5

Busche 301 with PP

Just a hail mary in case the break make it. I don't think Trek's GC ambitions extend to anything more than a top 10, so I can see them wanting to show off Busche's new kit and possibly try for the stage win. Gallopin described Busche as very strong in the TTT, so he must be in some sort of form.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 13, 2015, 08:54
https://twitter.com/stedicia/status/599170324438065152

40-1 for Suisse doesn't look too bad I think
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 29, 2015, 21:40
TdF Green Jersey

Degenkolb v Sagan 5.0 with Bet365

Not sure the points competition changes will affect this particular H2H too much as it's unlikely either of them will be winning on the pan flat days, but Kittel's absence should mean Degenkolb will be getting involved in all sprints. Sagan should still be favourite, but if JD decides to go for the intermediates then it could be a lot closer than 5.0 suggests.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on June 29, 2015, 21:56
Wouldn't it be better just to go for Degenkolb at 14/1 with PP? The only other person likely to target the Green Jersey is Kristoff.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 29, 2015, 22:17
i'm probably going to have two outright bets on the tour this year.

Nibali for yellow and Degenkolb for green.

Nibalis prep while looking underwhelming in some ways is very similair to last year. His only win between the 2013 Giro and last years toue was the Italian RR champs and his only win between last years tour and this years was the Italian RR champs so his lack of wins isn't really a worry.

With there being no Kittel, Degenkolb will pick up more points than he would if Kittel was there. Also he'll be the only Green jersey contender at the finish with sagan on some stages and I think he is definitely the faster finisher of the two so the disparity in odds between the two makes me think that degenkolb is the best bet for the green jersey.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 30, 2015, 09:19
Wouldn't it be better just to go for Degenkolb at 14/1 with PP? The only other person likely to target the Green Jersey is Kristoff.

You could be right, but I don't like outright prices that low. Kristoff and Cavendish could both be challenging for the green, unlike Sagan and JD they'll both fancy their chances on the high scoring pan flat stages. Haven't looked too closely at the stages, but it doesn't look like there are that many intermediates that you need some climbing for

Just think in general that any realistic h2h should never be that high - you got to factor in illness and crashes etc.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 30, 2015, 09:58
TdF GC

Sepulveda v Nerz 2.0
Gesink v Peraud 2.2
Costa v Rolland 2.5

Treble at 11.0 with Bet365

Big question marks over the form and fitness of Peraud and Nerz. Wouldn't surprise me if they are DNFs or hours down in the final GC. It still remains to be seen whether Costa can translate his one week stage race results to the longer format, but I'm fairly confident if he can avoid crashes etc that he can at least be around the level of Rolland.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 01, 2015, 20:16
TdF Stage 1

Teabag v Froome 2.2 with Bet365

Think Froome's TTing has dipped from 2014 and even more so from 2013. Probably down to his training focusing more on his climbing/punchiness due to this year's parcour. I reckon TJ may have a few seconds advantage after this stage.

TdF Stage 2

GVA 301ew with Bet365

Forecast doesn't look too windy for Sunday in this region, but you never know, we could have echelons etc if it does start to blow from the right direction. Crashes etc could also give some splits and GVA has been mixing it up with the sprinters recently in the TdS - third and fourth from reduced groups.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 04, 2015, 09:16
TdF GC (without the Big 4)

Some interesting prices in this market if you can see a particular rider finishing "seventh" in the GC.

Hesjedal 201ew
Frank 251ew
Valls 301ew

All with Bet365.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on July 04, 2015, 09:20
Had a fiver on a cheeky accumulator on 9 match bets. Will net £1300 if it comes in.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on July 11, 2015, 18:29
Tinkoff 25/1 for tomorrow's TTT?! Might be worth an e/w bet.. :P (I don't bet :shh )
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 12, 2015, 10:06
Teabag bet from the first stage was a winner and GVA was close on stage 2, but the others look not so good - need Sepulveda to get his finger out and do better than Nerz for the accy.

Tinkoff 25/1 for tomorrow's TTT?! Might be worth an e/w bet.. :P (I don't bet :shh )

Think they were 67 last week or so when PP had an early market up, but I ummmed and ahhhhed too long about it.

TdF Stage 9

Etixx v Tinkoff 4.33 with Bet365

I'm risking the wrath of somebody here, but the odds have drifted far enough now I think it to be worth a shot. Etixx naturally are missing Tony and it's a big miss, but they still got a well drilled team. I still think they'll be there or thereabouts and maybe even challenging for a podium.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on July 12, 2015, 14:27
Think they were 67 last week or so when PP had an early market up, but I ummmed and ahhhhed too long about it.



Shame on you! :angry :shh :o ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 16, 2015, 19:51
Close in the TTT until they got to the final climb.  :(

TdF Stage 13

Voss 251 with Bet365
Geniez 301 with PP

Decent chance for the break after three tough days in the mountains. I've stolen the Geniez bet from search's preview and I had Voss in mind for the stage even before I saw the odds. Bora should be all about breaks now - no having to babysit Nerz for a top-20 place since the DNF, it's not a stage for Bennett, Barta tried today, Buchmann will wait for the Alps and so why not Vossi tomorrow.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 18, 2015, 23:29
Given that my Nibali/Degenkolb double appears to have gone up the swannie I've decided to have a bet this evening on Quintana at 13/2 as a hopeful saver for me on this years tour as i think Quintana might pull something out of the bag in the Alps.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 25, 2015, 20:41
TdF GC (without the Big 4)

Some interesting prices in this market if you can see a particular rider finishing "seventh" in the GC.

Frank 251ew


Wish I'd forgotten about this bet. Lost out by 25 seconds.  :(

La Course

D'Hoore 41 with PP
Lepisto 201 with PP

Fair play to PP for putting up a market, though I wonder if they'll regret it. Just a shame there's no ew.

Both in good form. D'Hoore winning the BeNe Ladies tour with three stage wins - should be under 10 unless I'm missing something. Lepisto also won a stage at Internationale Thuringen Rundfahrt and was placing well in most of the others.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 31, 2015, 22:11
San Sebastian

Pinot 201ew with Bet365

Showing good last week form at the TdF. Can he stretch it out for another week? I don't see why not - the recent winners here have tended to be riders coming off the Tour. Question marks about the speedy descent after the final climb, but that one crash the other week does tend to overshadow his improved descending from where it was a couple of years ago.

Pologne

Rosa 401ew with Bet365

Bit of a hail mary. Aru is supposedly the team leader (and tempting at 81), but god knows what form he'll be in. Rosa to get a bit of freedom?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 02, 2015, 19:55
Denmark GC

Olsson 301ew
Pedersen 301ew
Kamp 301ew
Quaade 301ew

All with Bet365.

Gone a bit crazy with some Scandi bets - considering how badly they're stinking up my Youth CQ team, it may not be the best idea. Fus may think Pedersen is here just to learn, but I think that's aiming a bit low for someone who's been top-10 in Tour des Fjords and 4JD this year. Quaade has his TT in his arsenal, just needs to recover his form of last year. Olsson is usually quite consistent and Kamp is having a good year albeit at a lower level than this.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 08, 2015, 18:49
Eneco GC

Stannard 201ew
Benoot 201ew

Both with PP. Same as previous years, it seems the best bet to go with guys who can do a bit of everything and are aggressive riders. Benoot has had a stellar year for a neo-pro, not sure about his TT, but with Wellens not in such good form, maybe Benoot will get some freedom to do his thing here.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 20, 2015, 23:07
Vuelta Stage 1

Caja-Rural 751ew with Bet365

There are some rumours going about that this TTT might get neutralized in terms of GC. If so, could we see quite a few teams not giving it 100%? Why take risks with so many days to go when you can take it easy.

One team that wouldn't take it easy would be Caja. With it being their home GT, they're not going to tootle round the course. Confidence is high in the team and they showed a good TTT at Burgos the other week.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 29, 2015, 23:18
Plouay

Gasparotto 101ew
Paterski 151ew
Vuillermoz 201ew

All with Bet365. More for fun than anything, just a few guys for a possible late break who have a quick finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 03, 2015, 11:26
Vuelta Stage 12

Moser 351 with Bet365

After yesterday's tough stage there's a decent chance for the break today (despite the unlikely profile). Moreno was the name picked out of the the hat of very high odds riders - decent kick if it comes to a sprint from the break or has the TT power to attack from a bit further out.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on September 19, 2015, 21:39
Tomorrows world TTT championship

I think Movistar will do a very good ride in the race so with them offering a 1/4 the odds for the first 3 places I'm having a little bit each way with Ladbrokes at 14/1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on September 22, 2015, 07:39
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/34122804

Victoria Pendleton is back in the saddle this evening in the 5.30 at Beverly. Riding the same horse Royal Etiquette that she rode to 2nd place in her first race. odds this morning at 7/1.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 23, 2015, 05:50
Nice one Carlo.

Women's RR

Amialiusik 101ew
Brand 101ew
Majerus 126ew
Lepisto 151ew

All with Bet365.

It's difficult to know how the race may pan out without seeing the course first, but both Majerus and Lepisto have quick finishes if it comes down a sprint (both had good seasons too). If it's more selective or a break takes it, then Amialiusik could come into play.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 27, 2015, 12:47
Haven't seen a race, but Moreno @ 251, could just come out on top if Piti and Purito look at each other too long.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on September 27, 2015, 16:47
I know I should really post this before the race started but I've gone E/W on Stybar for todays RR
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on December 09, 2015, 20:20
Olympic RR

Had a few basic thoughts about what I think we're looking for in a winner here. A good climber obviously, some previous results in one day races (the longer the race the better) and I'm saying he has to be riding the TdF in 2016. So I've put those thoughts in the washing machine and out came two Dutchmen.....

Mollema 101ew with PP
Gesink 301ew with PP

Mollema could be a good one actually. In the past four years, after he has ridden the Tour, he has gone to San Sebastien a week or so later and put in a run of 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th. Rio will be a week further on from the end of the Tour than SS, but I think these results could show an ability to carry over form after a three week race maybe better than some others.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on December 09, 2015, 20:37
Olympic RR

Had a few basic thoughts about what I think we're looking for in a winner here. A good climber obviously, some previous results in one day races (the longer the race the better) and I'm saying he has to be riding the TdF in 2016. So I've put those thoughts in the washing machine and out came two Dutchmen.....

Mollema 101ew with PP
Gesink 301ew with PP

Mollema could be a good one actually. In the past four years, after he has ridden the Tour, he has gone to San Sebastien a week or so later and put in a run of 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th. Rio will be a week further on from the end of the Tour than SS, but I think these results could show an ability to carry over form after a three week race maybe better than some others.

Kwia, Valverde or purito for me.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on December 28, 2015, 20:56
Well those three have the second, first and fourth shortest odds with PP, so it would be a surprise if some of them (the Spaniards) weren't involved in the finale.  :P

Not so sure about Kwiatkowski. Looks like too much climbing for him.

Anyway, some more long termers since I'm a bit bored.

MSR

Phinney 201ew with PP

Phinney, although I'm beginning to dislike him generally, seems to be back on track after his leg break. Seventh in 2013 and has a good turn of speed to either contest a sprint or go for a late attack.

RVV

Amador 501ew with PP

Andrey is just a bit of fun.

TdF

S. Yates 601ew with Bet365

Far too early to be thinking about podiuming in a three week race really, but he's been there or there about in one week WT races this year. Fifth in Pais Vasco, 6th in Romandie and 5th in the Dauphine. The two TTs shouldn't inconvenience him too much and neither he or his brother seem too fazed by the elite company they are competing against at such a young age.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 09, 2016, 18:32
Aussie Nat RRs

Rowney 81 with PP (Women's)
Kerby 201 with PP (Men's)

For the Men's race the only chance I see for Drapac is the break taking it. I can't see anyone beating Ewan in a sprint, but what sort of form is Gerro in? I'd rather take my chances against him from a small group, and I'll steal some research from 42x16ss as to why Kerby is the chosen option (obv the price has something to do with it too).

Heads up, Jordan Kerby (Drapac) is FLYING atm and looking like he's going for Nats, probably the TT and the TDU. He's been demolishing everyone this last month, including total destruction of my club's annual Championship Crit.

He simply ended up riding away from a group that included Jay McCarthy (Tinkoff), Michael Hepburn (Orica), Chris Williams (Norvo Nordisk), Mal Rudolph (Drapac), Jack Anderson and Josh Prete (Budget Forklifts), Nick Schultz (Etixx Conti) and Dave Edwards (Charterhouse Mason).

Nobody could mark him


Rowney is the longest Orica option I could see in the women's race. In contrast to the men's, Orica might not want a sprint (or at least not feel as confident about it). So try and get a numbers advantage in a break and play it from there.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: just some guy on January 09, 2016, 19:24
What are the odds for Haas ?

Aussie Nat RRs

Rowney 81 with PP (Women's)
Kerby 201 with PP (Men's)

For the Men's race the only chance I see for Drapac is the break taking it. I can't see anyone beating Ewan in a sprint, but what sort of form is Gerro in? I'd rather take my chances against him from a small group, and I'll steal some research from 42x16ss as to why Kerby is the chosen option (obv the price has something to do with it too).

Rowney is the longest Orica option I could see in the women's race. In contrast to the men's, Orica might not want a sprint (or at least not feel as confident about it). So try and get a numbers advantage in a break and play it from there.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 09, 2016, 19:27
15 with PP (fifth favourite).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 09, 2016, 19:47
I'm sorely tempted to have £2 on Gaviria for MSR and Piti for the Ronde. If I can get a double it should be 2000/1 ish
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on January 09, 2016, 20:17
that's a tempting offer indeed, Joel, I actually do consider to take that quid or two from you :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 09, 2016, 20:22
that's a tempting offer indeed, Joel, I actually do consider to take that quid or two from you :P

Gaviria could easily win MSR as Kittel isn't going to.

And never write Valverde off for a tough one-dayer (PR excepted)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 22, 2016, 17:16
TDU Stage 5

Morabito 201ew with PP

Part of the group of eight that went over Corkscrew just behind Woods and Henao. Everyone else involved that day is a lot shorter. Difficult to see a win, but maybe a podium if he has a really good day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 28, 2016, 19:55
Cadel Evans
 
Smith 151ew with PP
Christie 151ew with PP

Got a feeling I could be backing Smiffy a lot this year. Both him and Christie have quite a few race miles done already this year, both can get over the hills and have a decent sprint from a reduced group. Not enough to bear Gerrans/Ewan, but enough to beat some others.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 28, 2016, 20:48
Cadel Evans
 
Smith 151ew with PP
Christie 151ew with PP

Got a feeling I could be backing Smiffy a lot this year. Both him and Christie have quite a few race miles done already this year, both can get over the hills and have a decent sprint from a reduced group. Not enough to bear Gerrans/Ewan, but enough to beat some others.

I've never heard of either of them LB!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on January 28, 2016, 23:45
Just had a few quid e/w on Valverde for the Tour of Flanders at 40/1 1/4 the odds first 4 places with Skybet
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on February 02, 2016, 15:33
Hi everyone! I am a cycling, basketball and american football fan and so far this year I had a lot of success betting on NBA and NFL so I decided to use some of my winning betting on cycling! I wanna stay disciplined so I will post my pays and maybe some reasoning here. I hope you will enjoy it!

Tour of Dubai:

In my opinion this race will be won by a sprinter once against and my big favorite is Mark Cavendish. Hatta should be too hard for Kittel and even if he dominates the other stages he will lost too much time there. Some other contenders could be either sprinters or puncheurs:

Sprinters

Viviani - already has some race days in his legs /great spreed /plans to do Milano San Remo this year so his climbing should be decent/ good train with Fenn and Swift

Nizzolo - good form in TdU/ good train with Stuyven ,Van Poppel , Coledan and maybe even Cancellara / second places still gives you bonus seconds

Lobato - bad form in TdU but he should be really strong on Hatta

Other guys like Modolo, Palini, Guardini or Kolar are either not fast enough, either too weak on steep climbs. Also worth to mention Modolo lost Richeze and this is huge in my opinion.


Puncheurs:

Gilbert, Cancellara, Ponzi, Visconti, Costa - Among all this guys the only one I can see with a chance is Fabian, His form was amazing in Mallorca and I can't wait to see him on Hatta. Gilbert might have a chance too but he was here last year and he did not impressed. I'm also curious to see how strong Ponzi will be at his new team CCC.

So my bets for this race will be:

Cavendish - 20 $ to win 80$

Cancellara - 5 $ to win 70 $


Viviani - 2 $ to win 160 $ (at Unibet)

For stage 1 I like Kittel to show his power and win the stage. After all he won all the 3 stages in 2014! I also like Viviani here because he should be in better form than the rest of the riders considering he will be at the Track Worlds...

Kittel to win stage 1 - 20 to win 35

Viviani Stage 1 - 10 to win 50

I also like Haig and Kennaugh to win Herald and I have 5 $ on both at 10 odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: AlyKaptan on February 02, 2016, 17:12
I will also play some H2H:
GC:

Cancellara over Swift 20 to win 11

Gilbert over Lobato 10 to win 13


STAGE 1:


Palini over Modolo - 10 to win 11


Nizzolo over Lobato 20 to win 10




Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 03, 2016, 16:38
Strade Bianche

Vakoc 151ew with PP

I don't think I need to tell you what sort form he's in currently - been bossing it in the hills of France. Lot of talent in the team, so he won't be the leader, but I hope he gets to ride for himself.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 03, 2016, 16:46
and

Bakelants 101ew with PP

Been in the same races as Vakoc with the same sort of form - not as good a sprint, but as good in the hills . Won't have the same team issue as the Etixx man (which has it pluses and minuses).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 05, 2016, 03:47
Hello... good to see PP still know how to make a book there...

Anyway, Brambilla is also good @ 251. Also got Maciej @ 201. I think Sagan and Ulissi best value of the favs.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 05, 2016, 05:36
Madison - Australia 19 @ B365

I dunno who is riding with Meyer but they are good odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 06, 2016, 02:02
P-N Prologue

All @ 365

Kittel 29
Matthews 41
CONTADOR 101 (because it's 2009?)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 06, 2016, 09:48
Westra said months ago that he is going for gc in Paris Nice again, even was on altitude over the past weeks. Not that I really believe that he is going to take the win, but at 100-1 it's worth a shot - even more so at 350-1, if you can use victor chandler.

Felline is someone I like for today, Top 3 @8 looks decent to me
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on March 06, 2016, 18:22
P-N Prologue

All @ 365

Kittel 29
Matthews 41
CONTADOR 101 (because it's 2009?)

You've had a good weekend,

Brambilla e/w at 251 and Matthews at 41 in PN.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 12, 2016, 05:20
Yeh a good week... maybe should do it more (or less!)

Westra 101 @ PP
Bakelants 101 @ pp

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 13, 2016, 00:33
Happy with those I guess... Kinda meh I didn't take Zakarin for the stage as I already have him for GC and didn't want to push my fortune (I guess I had it the wrong way round), hope he holds third.

re: T-A, it seems to make a lot of sense to back puncheurs/TTers overall in the three early WT races. I half thought about Sagan but the MTF was just too long.

Anyway

Yates 34 @ PP
Jeannesson 67 @ 365
Serry 51 @ 365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 13, 2016, 00:39
yeah, Westra had a mechanical and was riding on a bike that apparently wasn't his size (he said something about having knee pain from it afterwards at least). But well, i guess it didn't make much of a difference anyway, given the way the stage unfolded

well, unlucky with Bakelants indeed though - but if you were wondering how Moreno could lose out in a sprint against Berhane... I had him for Top 3 of course, at 26 :yum
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Hugo Koblet on March 13, 2016, 08:46
My bets today:

Yates @ 29
LLS @ 26
Dumoulin @ 19
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on March 17, 2016, 21:47
4.10 Cheltenham tomorrow

Thought I'd back the cyclist so have just had some money on Pacha du Polder e/w
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on March 18, 2016, 08:14
4.10 Cheltenham tomorrow

Thought I'd back the cyclist so have just had some money on Pacha du Polder e/w

Will be having some of this later, go girl go.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on March 18, 2016, 15:54
Will be having some of this later, go girl go.

The horse she's on is probably better at 2 1/2 miles than 3 1/4 but at 20/1 I thought it was worth a go.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 26, 2016, 21:02
GW

Viviani 101ew
Howard 401ew
Jans 501ew

All with PP.

Okay. It's a win/win unless scenario 3 happens.

Scenario 1 - Wind and rain gives us groups all over the place and it's an exciting race.

Scenario 2 - Weather isn't as bad as the forecast suggests and we have a sprint. Excitement from possible winning bets.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 02, 2016, 18:51
RVV

Stuyven 50/1 ew 1/4 1st 4 Totesport
Fuglsang 250/1 ew 1/4 1st 3 Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 09, 2016, 09:42
Grand National

Silviniaco Conti 15
Gallant Oscar 19
Ucello Conti 34ew

The usual cycling themed bets. The two Contis (Valerio and Samuele) and a certain Tony Martin is the trainer of Gallant Oscar (Freire).

Pais Vasco Stage 6

Latour 351ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 09, 2016, 16:11
I've gone for Many Clouds again in the National this year although sadly not the 33/1 that he was last year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on April 09, 2016, 17:14
Good shout Carlo. But watch The Romford pele romp it
haha
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 09, 2016, 20:12
Paris - Roubaix

Tony Martin 80/1 e/w Boylesport

Post Merge: April 09, 2016, 20:15
Would also have been having a bet on Luke Rowe but given he's a best price of 25/1 I won't be. I was hoping for something more like 50/1 or 66/1 but I guess his result at Flanders has led the UK books to shorten him up for Roubaix.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 09, 2016, 20:45
this is a *fr day though. Turgot please :)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 09, 2016, 20:49
this is a *fr day though. Turgot please :)

I did consider Turgot as he's available at 400/1 but in the end i just cant see him doing it even as an e/w bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 09, 2016, 21:22
yeah, probably not, but who knows. There are lots of contenders with a chance, on a good day, and if they get a bit more leeway than expected, and I think Turgot is one of those. Chavanel as well maybe, for example - he has never had much luck in Paris Roubaix, but at 250-1...

Chava said he would consider to join the early breakaway though, not sure if that's a good sign.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 10, 2016, 05:53
There is a lot to be said about having a several years experience under your belt and a few top20/30s. You get in the break and hope things fall apart behind, or you turn up with much improved form while still being under the radar.

So... Petit, Chavanel, Turgot, Morkov.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 23, 2016, 15:36
LBL

Froome 100/1 e/w 1/4 odds first 4 (Paddy Power)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 24, 2016, 05:18
The lack of credible outsiders to back tells you all you need to know about the excitement of the Ardennes.

Poels @ 51
Visconti @ 126 (I know, lol)

Yeh flip it lets go Froome/Porte too.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 28, 2016, 20:49
TdY Stage 1

Politt 251ew with Bet365

Looks like nasty weather tomorrow. Will probably feel subzero in the very bitter, strong wind. I reckon if some teams (especially those without sprinters) are minded, it could break up. A day for the hard men etc.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 04, 2016, 22:43
Giro GC Outright

Zakarin 16/1 ew 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on May 05, 2016, 10:23
Giro GC Outright

Zakarin 16/1 ew 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP

That's the best deal around IMO, although Chaves EW at 50/1 is also promising
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 05, 2016, 10:32
That's the best deal around IMO, although Chaves EW at 50/1 is also promising

It looks like Zakarin is the rider that the books can't make there mind up about. Some had him as short as 8/1 when I looked yesterday. Wouldn't have backed him at that price but happy to at 16/1. He can climb and TT and the only real negative I can put against him is that it's only his second GT and the first time he'll be riding one all out for GC.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on May 05, 2016, 11:08
It looks like Zakarin is the rider that the books can't make there mind up about. Some had him as short as 8/1 when I looked yesterday. Wouldn't have backed him at that price but happy to at 16/1. He can climb and TT and the only real negative I can put against him is that it's only his second GT and the first time he'll be riding one all out for GC.

He's not available at 16 any more. He was 17 earlier in the week, now the best is 14, so it looks as if a few are backing him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 05, 2016, 13:14
Yea the sputnik drifted since last I saw, taken him on Betfair (will look to trade after 1-2 weeks). Very disappointed Paddy aren't offering EW on the ITT, some worth outsiders.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on May 05, 2016, 13:32
Yea the sputnik drifted since last I saw, taken him on Betfair (will look to trade after 1-2 weeks). Very disappointed Paddy aren't offering EW on the ITT, some worth outsiders.

Skybet, Betfair and BetWay seem to be the only ones who are. 1-2.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 05, 2016, 22:25
Giro Stage 1

Hepburn 80/1 ew 1/3 odds first 2 Betfair

Placed this yesterday and so looks a bit aftertimerish now he's shortened in the betting.

Interesting that he'll be the last off for OGE so perhaps he's there man for the stage.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 09, 2016, 17:30
Giro Stage 4

Amador 151ew
Fuglsang 201ew
Firsanov 301ew
Uran 301ew
Pozzovivo 401ew

Scattergun approach, all with PP. That up and down finish could suit a late attack and since none of them are top tier, maybe they'll get a bit more freedom.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 12, 2016, 08:38
Not liking many break candidates at this stage, most will still be looking after "leaders".

small ones:

Kudus @ 201 (B365)
Verona @ 151
Roglic @ 101
Visconti @ 51

and Kruijswijk @ 41 (B365) best value of the "big" guns.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 15, 2016, 02:28
Giro Stage 9

Zakarin 16/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 22, 2016, 10:41
Smallies:

Valverde top3 @ 7 (Betfair)
Siutsou @ 126

Also Siutsou > Jungels and Valverde > Zakarin (both are dogs)

Hmm Majka > Chaves too.

First H2Hs since forever wish me luck...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 22, 2016, 11:09
took Foliforov > Ciccone at ~2.8, as Rusvelo needs reults and he has quite a good record in those kind of efforts, was on par with Aru even on the Col de Bassachaux in 2012. Ciccone... no one knows I guess

and Scarponi to win
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 22, 2016, 16:32
took Foliforov > Ciccone at ~2.8, as Rusvelo needs reults and he has quite a good record in those kind of efforts, was on par with Aru even on the Col de Bassachaux in 2012. Ciccone... no one knows I guess

well, there would have been even better value elsewhere by the look of it...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 23, 2016, 09:12
Ha, fair effort that. A little annoyed with myself as I blacklisted him after not doing what I wanted for my CQ team. Still, very hard to justify an outright bet in a discipline which is supposedly the purest (well there was Garzelli too).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 24, 2016, 09:29
This is one of the stranger books I've seen. Chances of a GC contender winning are super discounted despite the GC situation requiring action. The break may not form until km 50 and it will only have until around km 60 before someone revs up the peloton (hopefully).

Maybe a sh*tty break goes very early and gets enough of a gap.

Anyway, Chaves @ 17, Nibali @ 19.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 25, 2016, 10:51
Idiot should have just gone the favourite...

Belletti @ 51
Grosu @ 151

Both 365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 25, 2016, 11:29
Belletti was brought to the hospital yesterday after the stage because of a "bronchial spasm fit with shortness of breath". That's also why the odds in the H2H against Arndt totally exploded. But it's hard to say how (or if at all) it'll influence his performance indeed
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 26, 2016, 13:17
Maybe I should read some news occasionally?  Kluge was 151 IIRC
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 13, 2016, 10:12
This is a textbook Albasini stage, which means Sagan should win.

The second climb on the circuit is like 10% for 500m with 11km to go. If things get stretched there are a couple of corners on the descent which may provide some opportunity/wreck the peloton. i.e. potential opportunists:

Costa @ 151
Paterski @ 151
Barguil @ 201

365, no PP market for some reason.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on June 19, 2016, 09:09
that final Tour de Suisse stage looks like one for (the new) Richeze  :s
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 19, 2016, 09:48
ha, it should be a little hot for him. Talansky ought to be given a chance to take the bonus seconds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 26, 2016, 07:48
Bertie trading at 8.8 - 9.0 on Betfair was too much for me to resist.

Only problem is that if he's going to do it you know it will be the hard way. If Froome roasts everyone on Aspin/Peyresourde then you will get much better value at that point. Would like to back LRP for a week one special but he's moved in quite a bit it seems.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 26, 2016, 10:07
Bertie trading at 8.8 - 9.0 on Betfair was too much for me to resist.

Only problem is that if he's going to do it you know it will be the hard way. If Froome roasts everyone on Aspin/Peyresourde then you will get much better value at that point. Would like to back LRP for a week one special but he's moved in quite a bit it seems.

I was going to have another look at the odds for the TdF today.

I'm already on Quintana for yellow but was going to have a look at the green and white jersey aswell today.

Do you think LRP might be an option to back before the race and hope he has a good first week and so shortens up and could lay off for a guaranteed profit?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 26, 2016, 13:05
Yeh I guess that's the idea, his record on the first MTF of GTs speaks for itself... as do his meltdowns shortly thereafter. In particular Bonascre 2013 and PSM 2015, maybe when he's not working for Froome he doesn't lose as much time to him. But at 20/1 you're only going to get a return out of it if he clearly looks the second or third best contender with a small gap to number one.

Maybe that price would be acceptable if he had a legitimate chance of a podium, but that ignores the fact his best GT result was a pretty quiet seventh, six years ago! Of course I wouldn't be shocked if he followed through this time (especially new team and all that) but you can't ignore the failure since.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on June 28, 2016, 09:57
Funny, Betfair added the rest of the startlist to the market and some bot decided to put them all at 1000/1.

Took it for Purito and Van den Breakaway, someone else got Nieve, Poels and Yates.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 01, 2016, 20:42
TdF KoM

Zakarin v Pozzovivo 2.62 with Bet365

Can Purito mount a GC challenge that requires the help of Zakarin later in the race? I don't think so and Zakarin himself is unlikely to be in shape initially to go for it after his Giro crash and subsequent recovery. Pozzovivo is more likely to be tied up with Bardet or even sitting in backpockets for a top-ten if the Frenchman messes up, and that doesn't equal many KoM points to me. Hopefully the Russian can get into a couple of breaks further into the race and get enough points.

TdF Stage 2

Cancellara 126ew with PP

It's probably a bit to much for him, but there aren't going to be too many chances for him in this race. Stage 16 could be the other one.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 01, 2016, 20:58
Already on Quintana for Yellow but a few more bets for me

Coquard 16/1 e/w and Matthews 33/1 e/w both 1/4 odds 1,2,3

Stage 2

Vakoc 40/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1,2,3
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on July 02, 2016, 09:02
Theuns @ 251
Petit @ 401

Because wind
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 09, 2016, 21:43
I might regret this but seeing as he was looking pretty good today i've just had this bet on the GC

Dan Martin 66/1 e/w with Bet 365 1/5 odds 1,2,3
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 26, 2016, 20:01
TdF KoM

Zakarin v Pozzovivo 2.62 with Bet365

Can Purito mount a GC challenge that requires the help of Zakarin later in the race? I don't think so and Zakarin himself is unlikely to be in shape initially to go for it after his Giro crash and subsequent recovery. Pozzovivo is more likely to be tied up with Bardet or even sitting in backpockets for a top-ten if the Frenchman messes up, and that doesn't equal many KoM points to me. Hopefully the Russian can get into a couple of breaks further into the race and get enough points.


Huzzah!

I'll even allow myself a :betting since I've had so few winners this year,

Danmark Rundt GC

Kirsch 201ew

Just for a bit of interest over the next few days.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 25, 2016, 21:24
Vuelta Stage 7

Haga 501
Warbasse 501

Both with PP. Nitro and Larry were both in the break the other day, but didn't have the legs for the uphill finish. Tomorrow's stage has 18.5km of descent and flat after the final climb, so maybe more of a chance for the pair......if the break makes it that is.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 26, 2016, 10:17
yeah, and it's Haga's birthday, can't hurt to put a little bet on him I guess
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 26, 2016, 10:19
Both with PP.

Make that Bet365 btw. :fp
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on August 28, 2016, 09:18
i've had 2 bets this morning.

De Gendt for the stage at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

and

Contador to win the Vuelta at 9/2 with Betfair.

He did go out to as big as 14/1 after the crash on Friday.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 03, 2016, 19:48
ToB GC

Langeveld 301ew
Vliegen 301ew

Both with PP. Might as well go with some guys in form.

BMC have said they're after stages and will see how the GC pans out. Dennis may have the TT, but we saw him struggling on similar terrain in Yorkshire (yo-yoing off the back after climbs), so I'm ruling him out in favour of the youngster.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 17, 2016, 11:26
European Championships RR

Magic v Geschke 3.0 with Bet365

Kwiatkowski withdrew from the Polish team the other day. So Paterski is probably now their best bet on this rolling type of terrain. Should be 50/50 with Simon I reckon.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 20, 2016, 12:06
Eneco Time Trial

Phinney @~20 e/w

Phinney finally seems to be more or less back to his normal level, at the halfway point he had the same time as Dennis (~10s quicker than Martin) in the Tour of Britain time trial, before he crashed then.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 20, 2016, 12:19
There are two big priced riders that have podiumed WT prologues in the field today.

I'm on Bevin at 201ew. Now just watch Roelandts do well.  :D

A bit longer than the PN prologue, but we'll see how he goes.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 20, 2016, 12:39
There are two big priced riders that have podiumed WT prologues in the field today.

I'm on Bevin at 201ew. Now just watch Roelandts do well.  :D

A bit longer than the PN prologue, but we'll see how he goes.

That should be WT prologues this year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on November 02, 2016, 18:11
TdF 2017 GC

Izagirre 501ew
Fuglsang 401ew

Ion doesn't think he has it in him to be a GT contender and that one week races are more to his liking - 5th, 3rd and 2nd at PN, Romandie and TdS this year shows that at least the second half of that statement is correct. He could be right about the GT bit too, he didn't exactly impress when he had his chance at co-leadership at the Giro in 2015, but Copeland would like him to give it a go and with Nibali heading to the Giro, it's likely to be at the Tour. The slightly different parcour to normal years could play in his favour too.

Anyway if he does do well in the WT stage races, his price is bound to fall and cash out is always an option closer to July.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on November 21, 2016, 20:37
Anybody interested in a betting challenge in 2017? Just for fun I hasten to add and maybe a suitable medal :betting

Couple of simple ideas related to H2Hs. The longest winning streak over the course of the whole year and/or similarly, the biggest bank achieved from a 1 unit start with all-in roll overs (if that makes sense).

We could have a few basic rules and you don't actually have to put on a real bet (though where's the fun in that).

So anybody interested? If it's just me vs search I probably won't bother, as we all know who'd win anyway...  ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on December 11, 2016, 08:28
Anybody interested in a betting challenge in 2017? Just for fun I hasten to add and maybe a suitable medal :betting

Couple of simple ideas related to H2Hs. The longest winning streak over the course of the whole year and/or similarly, the biggest bank achieved from a 1 unit start with all-in roll overs (if that makes sense).

We could have a few basic rules and you don't actually have to put on a real bet (though where's the fun in that).

So anybody interested? If it's just me vs search I probably won't bother, as we all know who'd win anyway...  ;)

As someone who has an occassional bet I'd be interested in this.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on December 13, 2016, 18:18
As someone who has an occassional bet I'd be interested in this.

:cool

After a bit of thought I think it would be too complicated to have separate competitions. So I'm leaning towards the first idea (longest winning streak) having more merit ie. it'll be the simplest to follow.

Possible rules:

No after eventing
Only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc) - to avoid carry over confusion
One bet per event (or should it be one per day to avoid hassle over race finishing times?)
Only odds of 2.0 or greater

Any thoughts, amendations or additions?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on December 13, 2016, 18:21
yeah, we can give it a try I think. This will be over by day 3 anyway, if it's only about the longest winning streak ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on December 14, 2016, 18:29
:cool

After a bit of thought I think it would be too complicated to have separate competitions. So I'm leaning towards the first idea (longest winning streak) having more merit ie. it'll be the simplest to follow.

Possible rules:

No after eventing
Only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc) - to avoid carry over confusion
One bet per event (or should it be one per day to avoid hassle over race finishing times?)
Only odds of 2.0 or greater

Any thoughts, amendations or additions?

I think we'd need to make it one per day so as we don't have confusion with things like someone having one pick in the final stage of the tour of catalunya and also one in Ghent Wevelgem which I think would be on the same day. you'd have to decide to have that days selection in one or the other.

I like the greater than 2.0 suggestion as it will mean you'd always be having to pick the least fancied rider by the bookies.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on December 31, 2016, 01:00
I'm in but I think I drained my Pinny account :D Haven't really done H2Hs outside of TTTs for a few years now.

Paddy have Aus Nationals up, going Howson in both ITT and RR plus a couple of others closer in. Dennis is ridiculously priced and for the RR GreenEdge have a pretty weak team these days and will not be able to control it until 170km for Gerrans.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 03, 2017, 18:22
Australian RR

Chris Hamilton 201ew with PP

No team mates for him in the race and it's his first time with the elites, but on the other hand he is the U23 champ and good enough to get a place on a WT team.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJWillis14 on January 07, 2017, 11:47
That's interesting, I was looking at backing Haas, McCarthy and Hamilton, might take him EW at those odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 12, 2017, 10:55
TDU GC

Ulissi 26ew
Morton 151ew
Canty 401ew

All with PP. Ulissi has done well on Willunga previously and the Paracombe finish is right up his street too. Morton and Canty both look in form after the Nats.

Just waiting for those stage H2Hs to get posted.  :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 15, 2017, 02:25
For today:

Swift @ 34

For GC:

Thomas Geraint @ 51
Brambilla @ 67
Mas @ 601

Ignore those last two, Lefevere's boys don't have a great record here.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Joelsim on January 15, 2017, 11:46
For today:

Swift @ 34

For GC:

Thomas Geraint @ 51
Brambilla @ 67
Mas @ 601

Ignore those last two, Lefevere's boys don't have a great record here.

Vakoc is leader isn't he?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 17, 2017, 09:01
TDU Stage 2

Goncalves 51ew with PP

When the Katusha team was announced I did think the course was a good one for him and he did go after bonifications today, so he must be interested in the GC. Last time they went up here there was a lot of looking around and a repeat of that would be ideal.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 17, 2017, 11:32
Like a few in triple figures, first """MTF"" of the year so why not.

Actually might give Lachlan "Norton" a miss.

Vakoc @ 67
Bevin @ 151
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 18, 2017, 11:22
Not terrible I guess lol, Mas still in play for GC place or something. Gotta stop backing Thomas in the TDU on the basis of one climb three years ago...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on January 18, 2017, 11:42
My fiver on Sagan is going nowhere good. Had £10 on McCarthy over Gerrans at 1.73 which was nice this morning
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 27, 2017, 20:09
CEGORR

Valls 401ew with PP

I think last year he was involved in some of the dangerous attacks towards the end, so the course is one that he can perform on and he showed in the TDU that he was back in form after a pretty poor 2016.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 28, 2017, 00:47
Really open race despite a much deeper field this year.

Serge Henao @ 151
Kelderman @ 151
Froome @ 151

All PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 31, 2017, 15:20
Dubai Stage 2

Colbrelli 201ew with PP

An embarrassing crash more than anything earlier on, certainly no injuries according to Sonny. I think he was 100 or under for today's stage, so I'm not sure how what happened today equates to his price going out for another sprint tomorrow. Anyway, once you get past the top 4 or 5 names, the sprint field isn't that deep as evidenced by Consonni and Jempy being up there. Could snatch a podium on one of these remaining days.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 13, 2017, 22:02
Oman GC

Martin 101ew with PP

Colbrelli 201ew with PP

Could snatch a podium on one of these remaining days.

Just not the day I was on him. :angry
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 18, 2017, 22:22
Ruta del Sol Stage 5

Moreno 351 with Bet365

Let's take a bit of a punt of my own research for once. Small chance for someone to take advantage of any potential disarray after the 800m climb near the end, and why not Moreno? He's one of only three local boys riding, he's pretty punchy and while he is in the top-ten of GC, only Uran (and Tschink who doesn't count) would be under threat.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 22, 2017, 20:25
Omloop

Wisniowski 201ew
Korsaeth 501ew

Both with Bet365.

Korsaeth didn't look out of his depth at the Worlds. Discounting the break, he was the only non-WT rider to make that front group (I think) and that was as a CT rider! Omloop is a bit different from Doha, but we'll see how he gets on, he should have a much freer role at Astana than he would at some other squads.

Wisniowski is playing second fiddle (or third or fourth) at Sky, but Rowe and Stannard should have their eyes on bigger fish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 09, 2017, 20:26
PN Stage 6

Gallopin 81ew with Bet365

Wow massive price....I think anyway. Unless he's been struck down with illness in the last 24 hours and I just haven't heard about it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Murrjt on March 09, 2017, 21:20
PN Stage 6

Gallopin 81ew with Bet365

Wow massive price....I think anyway. Unless he's been struck down with illness in the last 24 hours and I just haven't heard about it.

Thanks for the heads up,  put a few £ on ew at Paddy Power which is currently at 80/1, bet365 is now 66/1.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 15, 2017, 16:26
MSR

Stannard 401ew with Bet365
Gavazzi 401 ew with PP
Mohoric 501ew with PP

The weather forecast is okay, so probably not a day for Stannard, but he has been aggressive in the finale before.

I know Mohoric crashed on whatever day it was, but he seems to have stepped up a bit this year. He had a good result in Provence (downhill attack if I remember correctly) and I just have a mental image of him attacking on the descent of the Poggio, so I had to have a bet on him, as unlikely as it seems.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on March 16, 2017, 14:29
EBH 81ew
Demare 13 to win

Seem like long odds for guys who have plenty of experience in the race.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on March 17, 2017, 09:30
I've had a couple of e/w bets

Demare @ 13.0
Degenkolb @ 15.0

not original or clever selections but I think both should be in the mix at the finish.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 27, 2017, 21:10
DDP Stage 1

Blythe 151ew with Bet365

Been impressed with Aquablue the couple of times I have seen them this spring. Giving Blythe a box seat ride both times. Tomorrow's finish is usually one for a select group, but we'll see what happens.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 28, 2017, 09:42
Vantomme @ 51

weird bet.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 07, 2017, 10:49
Igor Anton @201 E/W for Pais Vasco Stage 5
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 08, 2017, 05:39
Grand National

One For Arthur 17 - Vichot inspired
Vicente 26ew - Vicente Garcia
Thunder and Rosas 34ew - Laureano
Roi Des Francs 41ew - Vichot again

Ucello Conti is riding as well, but I had a bet on it last year.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on April 08, 2017, 10:49
National

Definitly Red 10/1 favourite.  A coincidence bet, the daughters horse is called Red and Danny Cook the jockey is from my home town Romford (even if he is a convicted coke sniffer, we won't hold that against him if he wins)

Houblon des Obeaux e/w
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 08, 2017, 15:17
I've gone for Ucello Conti. I think the winner will come from one of the horses that finished in the first five of last Decembers Becher Chase at aintree as they all looked decent performers that day and some of them have gone on to show that the form of that race was pretty good with wins in some decent races.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 08, 2017, 18:25
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CoCbK84XgAAkFs6.jpg)

 :cool
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 09, 2017, 04:16
Chaos bets courtesy of PP:

Bennati @ 401
Terrible record in P-R but he's in form I guess.

Wynants @ 501
Hayman clone, only real race he aims for a good result in.

Laporte @ 501
Looked a bit better this year.

Backaert @ 501
Scraping the barrel now.





Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 09, 2017, 07:35
PR

Sieberg @ 200/1

Saramontins @ 400/1

both with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 11, 2017, 19:47
BP

Bettiol 201ew
Jules 301ew
Tratnik 501ew

All with Bet365. Finally some tasty prices - well the first one is. Bettiol with some good form/results on the cobbles over the past weeks and for somebody who was 2nd, 4th, 7th at GP Ouest and the two Canadian races at the tail end of last year, he should be much shorter I think.

For Jules I'm just stealing that off search. :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 16, 2017, 06:26
Good value on some "non-sprinters", all 365.

Devenyns @ 251
Martin @ 67 (I know he hasn't historically prepped for this race)
Vichot @ 67
Ulissi @ 67



Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on April 25, 2017, 10:51
Romandie Prologue

Viviani @ 101
Moscon @ 126


@365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 16, 2017, 08:54
Accumulator: Barta tb van Emden + Ludvigsson tb Campenaerts

Spoiler (hover to show)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 17, 2017, 08:30
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_81zQ5UwAAc3sB.jpg)

Victor had his mind on other things, but Jos didn't get the memo.

Giro Stage 11

Senni 301ew with Bet365

Just a bit of interest for today.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 25, 2017, 11:11
Tour de France outright

George Bennett 500/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1st 3 with BetVictor

Had a fairly light season in terms of race days and made probably his career best performance at the ToC in May. Did see in an interview he was going to concentrate on stage wins but at such a big price i'm prepared to take a chance on him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 28, 2017, 21:08
A couple of less speculative bets compared to my George Bennett bet for the Tour.

Yellow jersey outright Aru @ 22/1 with Coral

and

White Jersey outright Buchmann @ 7/1 with Coral
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 30, 2017, 22:02
Some specials on PP

Porte #yellow TDG #kom Buchmann #white @ 201

Froome v Porte @ 2.62 (stage one)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 01, 2017, 18:46
A victory!

TdF Stage 3

Kwiatkowski 126ew
Naesen 301ew

Both with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 02, 2017, 23:01
TdeF Stage 3

Matthews @ 11/2 with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 03, 2017, 12:06
TdF Stage 3

Kwiatkowski 126ew

Cashing out of that for some profit as Kwiatkowski is a bit too prominent in the Sky line for my liking.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 04, 2017, 21:51
TdeF Stage 5

Porte e/w @ 4/1 with Betfred 1/4 odd 1st 4

I wouldn't normally bet each way at such a low price but with it being 4 places offered I see this as a be to nothing as unless a break take the win I cant see Porte being out of the first 4.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 07, 2017, 18:40
TdF Stage 8

T Martin 151 with Bet365
Benoot to be leading after the stage 301 with PP

First real chance for the break to succeed tomorrow. Sky have talked about them not minding someone non-threatening taking the yellow jersey, but losing it on Sunday would be better for all concerned as the new wearer and his team could have it for several days then. Lotto have a couple of cards they could play over the weekend if they want the jersey - Benoot and Wellens. So Tiesj to try on Saturday and Tim on Sunday?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 15, 2017, 09:38
TdF Stage 14

Lammertink 301 with Bet365

Could be his sort of stage and his team has to do something.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 20, 2017, 19:18
TdF Stage 20

Sutterlin 151ew with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 22, 2017, 21:20
Vuelta Stage 5

Kruijswijk 501ew

Roson v Pardilla 2.37
De La Cruz v Nibali 2.0
Simon v Adam 2.62

All with Bet365.

Steven K is suffering from a cold, but my bet hopes it's more in the past tense than the present. He did drop some time on stage 3, but not as much as some.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 24, 2017, 05:39
Vuelta Stage 6

Oliveira 151 with Bet365

One of the highest ranked riders (climbing well for a big man) in GC who is zero threat overall. Stage win and red jersey for Movistar.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 30, 2017, 20:16
Vuelta Stage 12

Villella 151ew with Bet365

One for the break after today's tough stage. Davide should be in the break for the KoM points, so that's half of the battle....
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 19, 2017, 13:10
Worlds Women's TT

Moolman-Pasio 151ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 21, 2017, 19:02
Worlds U23 Men's RR

Touze 201ew
Hayter 301ew
Lauk 301ew

All with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 21, 2017, 20:12
Worlds Elite Women's RR

Majerus 126ew
H Barnes 301ew
A Barnes 401ew

All with Bet365. If Deignan isn't recovered from her appendix op then the prices on Hannah and Alice seem pretty tasty.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 23, 2017, 17:15
Let's see if I can get a hat-trick of 6th places. :angry

Worlds Elite Men's RR

Mollema 201ew
Bettiol 251ew
Henao 251ew
Gougeard 401ew
Roche 501ew

All with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 23, 2017, 18:24
.....and a realistic one for once. Let's just say it has been influenced by how the other RRs have gone (and his attacks in Montreal and GP Wallonie).

Wellens 26 with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 23, 2017, 18:59
....and the last one. Promise.

Herrada 251ew with Bet365

I was misled by PCS into thinking he wasn't starting, but he does.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 04, 2017, 13:06
World Cup Qualifiers

Single Scorecast:
Gareth McAuley, Northern Ireland 1 - 0 @ 301.00

 :s
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on December 09, 2017, 17:56
With the chances that the first 2 in the betting look like they might show up to the race having already ridden the Giro and the news that it will be his target for the season I'm going to have a very early bet on next years Tour de France on Ilnur Zakarin at 66/1 with PP
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 06, 2018, 11:39
Aussie RR

Top 3 Finish

Giacoppo 51
Hucker 51

Both with PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 06, 2018, 12:02
lol, Gia looked ok in the Crit but led out Steele :( I had a few quid on LRP yesterday anyway so cannot talk.

I'll go CM @ 21, Howson & Hamilton @ 41.

Without Gerrans, GreenEdge will have to light it up from the gun to have a chance. 

Freiberg not on the book but he will be #1 for Praties with Bayly.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 11, 2018, 21:27
TDU GC

Slagter 51ew with PP

Previous winner. Decent kick so could pick up bonuses on stages 2 and 4.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 14, 2018, 03:58
Von Hoff @ 81
Impey @ 401

365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: DJW on January 14, 2018, 17:38
Was tempted by a few quid on Dan Brown EW @ 150-1

but I've gone for a tenner on Porte  :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on January 14, 2018, 20:13
TDU GC

Kennaugh 66/1 e/w
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on January 16, 2018, 22:41
Stirling... you could load up on anyone here, lots of 3 digits EW value on 365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on January 17, 2018, 22:24
Markets are out for the big 1 day races.

MSR

Stuyven 201ew

PR

Groenewegen 401ew

Both with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 08, 2018, 20:57
Dubai Stage 4

NVH 501ew with Bet365

Hail Mary time.

TDU GC

Slagter 51ew with PP

Half a winner. :cool
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 12, 2018, 20:45
Oman GC

The Eiking 101ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 13, 2018, 18:58
Oman Stage 2

Ligthart 151ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 15, 2018, 21:22
Oman Stage 4

Carpenter 301 with Bet365

This time the Rally double-up in a break will be successful.

Ruta del Sol Stage 3

Sbaragli 67ew with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on February 23, 2018, 19:33
KBK

SHE 301ew
MWS 401ew

Both with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 02, 2018, 18:11
SB

Felline v Valverde 3.25
Vanmarcke v  WVA 1.83

Double at 5.95 with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 04, 2018, 08:40
Real tough one to call Stage 1... can make a case for quite a few.

Gallopin @ 26
Yates @ 126

Both @ 365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 10, 2018, 04:48
Markets are out for the big 1 day races.

MSR

Stuyven 201ew

PR

Groenewegen 401ew

Both with Bet365

Couple of old fellas showing glimpses of form in P-N

MSR - Haussler @ 151 (365)
P-R - Langeveld @ 126 (Paddy)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 10, 2018, 05:42
Haussler looked absolutely fantastic indeed. No idea if he still has much of a sprint though
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 10, 2018, 08:39
Don't think he does, so not sure how he could actually win given it's going to be too selective or not enough (he needs a group of 10-12 which never happens in M-SR). 3rd will do!

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 10, 2018, 08:43
nah, I need a win for my bet on Haussler's MSR / Roubaix double :lol
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 11, 2018, 03:22
Hmmm interesting little finish... Landa needs more time.

Landa @ 67
Uran @ 67
Formolo @ 401

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 12, 2018, 00:44
I'm about as satisfied as you can be without winning on those picks...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: HoudiniCycling on March 12, 2018, 04:14
Already posted some tips on CN and went 12-4 with matchups bets there but for some reason my posts take 5 hours or so to be published so I will post my bets here.

For T-A Stage 6 I have:

Gaviria over Kittel -1.85 -

Mezgec over Venturini -1.56

Mreczko over Modolo -2.1

I also have Kwiat at 1.5 to win TA pending as a 3x play! You can also follow my tips at @houdinicycling on twitter.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: HoudiniCycling on March 13, 2018, 04:08
Bad day yesterday . The crash really hurt my bets. For stage 7 I have:

Dennis to win - 1.5 odds - 2x play
Durbridge over Impey - 1.67
Kwiat over Caruso - 1.3 odds - 2x play
Castroviejo over Kiryienka - 1.49
Roglic over Martin -1.48

Gonna also play the last 3 in a acc at 2.84 odds.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: HoudiniCycling on March 13, 2018, 15:23
5-0 mates! Everything won so I am delighted! Give me a follow on twitter at @houdinicycling if you want to see all my picks! Can't wait for Milano San Remo! Kwiat also won the GC as a 3x play!
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 17, 2018, 20:08
Catalunya GC

Visconti 301ew
Jesus Herrada 401ew

Both with Bet365.

Since PP has really gone to the dogs, I've actually withdrawn all funds from there. It was good while it lasted....
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 18, 2018, 07:53
Catalunya Stage 1

De Gendt 301
Cummings 301
Rubio 501

All with Bet365.

Breaks have won into Calella before (slightly different routes, but same finish). Probably something to do with the usually weakish sprint field. Might as well have a go on some of the usual suspects.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 19, 2018, 10:40
Catalunya GC

Kruijswijk @ 81
Visconti @ 401 (weather play)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 22, 2018, 08:23
Catalunya Stage 4

Louis Vervaeke @501

said that Catalunya is a personal goal before PN already. Attacked here two years ago, time to give it another try
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 24, 2018, 11:11
just in case there's nothing else turning out to be excited about today: we have a nice sum of positions fight for 10th in gc :win

Pto. Pais Nombre Equipo hh:mm:ss Ptos.
10º      DEN      HANSEN Jesper      ASTANA PRO TEAM      a 01:28      210
11º      NED      KRUIJSWIJK Steven      TEAM LOTTO NL - JUMBO      a 01:28      215
12º      BEL      HERMANS Ben      ISRAEL CYCLING ACADEMY      a 01:28      297

...and here they go into the accumulator. Hansen to beat Gaudu + Kruijswijk to beat Frank + Hermans to beat Pinot in stage 6, @8 or so
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on March 24, 2018, 17:12
 :s
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on March 25, 2018, 06:58
Nice attentive work that.

GW time, really open race this

Matthews @ 26
Roelandts @ 81
Capiot @ 201
Dehaes @ 301

Avoiding the temptation to get on Barbie again...

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 27, 2018, 19:00
DDV

Teunissen 201ew
Gaudin 301ew
Dehaes 401ew
Vantomme 501ew

All with Bet365.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on March 28, 2018, 20:14
That's more like it. :cool

Added bonus is that he's on my Velogames team too.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on March 31, 2018, 19:50
Tour of Flanders

Van Baarle 66/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1st 3 Ladbrokes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 04, 2018, 07:32
Pais Vasco Stage 3

Kiryienka 401

He's probably saving himself for the TT tomorrow, but I think the break has a good chance today. If anyone can, Kiry can!

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 07, 2018, 20:30
Paris Roubaix,

Stybar
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 10, 2018, 19:04
Commonwealth Games RR

Scotson 67

Strongest team by a fair margin, but will they want a sprint.

BP

Teuns v Benoot 2.0
Serry v Barguil 2.2

All with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on April 11, 2018, 08:51
this is Serry's strongest race usually, yeah. Unfortunately those odds are gone now...

Anyway. Floris Gerts @401 and TOSH @81 then. This is his highlight of the season, he said. And at some point he'll attack anyway, I guess.
'
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 14, 2018, 09:13
Grand National

One for Arthur (Vichot) won for me last year, but he's not back to defend his title.

Blaaklion 13 - Chantal
The Dutchman 21 - Dumoulin
Ucello Conti 19 - Valerio
Raz de Maree 23 - David Maree
Double Ross 101ew - Matthew Ross
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Archieboy on April 14, 2018, 10:48
 :2.25 Aintree / Momella ( Right letters different order )
Thank me later :cool
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 14, 2018, 17:11
Raz De Maree.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 14, 2018, 20:52
AGR

Sonny v Sagan 2.25
Woods 201ew

Thank me later :cool

Errrrr.....   :-x :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 15, 2018, 19:54
Alps GC

Bennett v Pozzovivo 2.37
Hermans v Dupont 1.83

Sosa 201ew
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 18, 2018, 08:38
Alps Stage 3

Turrin 501

Fair chance for the break today, but Astana and especially FDJ might fancy some bonifications. Anyway Turrin seems the best of the bunch at 501 in case a break does make it.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 22, 2018, 08:29
L - B - L

Michael Matthews 18/1 with Coral
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on April 30, 2018, 20:52
Giro KoM

Hermans v Gesink 2.5

Giro GC

Geniez v Dennis 2.25
Konrad v Brambilla 2.2

What does my crystal ball say about Dennis? Wins first stage....holds onto the jersey for a few days.....grimly hangs on to a top ten spot until stage 9.....has several extra "rest" days in prep for the second TT.....loses to Dumoulin anyway.....DNF/DNS the next day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on May 01, 2018, 17:58
Giro mountain classification:
Pantano to win @ 21
Pantano to finish top3 @ 6.50


Just to make the race a bit more interesting. If anyone has some suggestions for other minor classifications, let me know :P was considering Movistar for best team @ 7.50 and Drucker top3 in points @ 17
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 01, 2018, 18:59
I think Froome mountain jersey @25 or so has some value. But this is probably not quite your kind of bet ;)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on May 01, 2018, 19:43
I think Froome mountain jersey @25 or so has some value. But this is probably not quite your kind of bet ;)
I'm betting on Froome for top3 in the prologue once unibet comes out with the odds - mainly because I tend to jinx my picks ;)
Unibet have him for the win at 51, top3 is usually ~ a 4th. Opening odds were 67 but unfortunately they're slow to open the top3 market. That's 1 of the downsides of the unibet win/top 3 seperate bets as opposed to normal e/w betting. However in some cases it's nice to be able to bet on top3 (I say as a super experienced better ....   :P )

I missed out on Terpstra 151 odds for Ronde.. not kidding... I looked after MSR when Trudgin won 450 with Nibali. Saw the Terpstra odds but was too hesitant to open an account :angry after that I decided and got some good winnings in Pais Vasco and Scheldeprijs but that was beginners luck :P

 most of my bets are 1 euro by the way. Leadbelly, for your H2H bets, how much do you bet? I've looked at them but usually don't see any value in those odds, unless I combine them but then it's much less certain. I did manage to somehow land a fivefold combination bet in the Pais Vasco TT :o
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 01, 2018, 22:50
I never bet that much and hence why I tend to stick to the big prices. These H2Hs are just for interest really.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on May 02, 2018, 14:05
Froome top3 stage 1 @ 5.50
What a rip-off, barely a 10th of the odds for 1st. They must have read about my intentions :P
Still put a euro on for the jinx :lol
And 1€ on Dumoulin for stage 1 @ 5.00

That is it for now, 4€ staked let's see where this ends up :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 03, 2018, 11:51
Hmm this ITT is actually really interesting, a bit nippy you might say. Can't go past the Astana lads but don't mind Jempy either.

LLS @ 301 (win only 365)
Lutsenko @ 276 EW (Paddy)

As for the overall... well lets see tomorrow, I'm still waiting for redemption on Giro GC after Delfino 2010 and Ivan 2012...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 03, 2018, 12:16
Jempy said he will go for it. Can't really see him finish that high up though, tbh



From the Aquablue sponsorship article...

Quote
On the road, Eddie Dunbar's performances in the Classics have boosted morale ahead of the Tour of Yorkshire, which starts tomorrow.

"I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we won it, Eddie is just in sensational form," says the team owner.

sounds alright for @41
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 04, 2018, 07:53
I almost forgot about this...

Spoiler (hover to show)

and apparently that time was real! His visor cracked after the split, he couldn't see anything anymore and then slowed down after almost crashing into a hedge. Worth a shot for this prologue as well then, I guess...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Flo on May 04, 2018, 19:27
Froome top3 stage 1 @ 5.50
What a rip-off, barely a 10th of the odds for 1st. They must have read about my intentions :P
Still put a euro on for the jinx :lol
:o :-x

Quote
And 1€ on Dumoulin for stage 1 @ 5.00

:party


And after Froome's recon crash backed Pinot for GC @ 8.00
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 11, 2018, 10:33
Giro Stage 7

Bennett v Dumoulin 3.25

A distinctly non-technical finish today might mean Dumoulin is slightly less insistent on being right towards the front (though crashes do often occur on these long straight finishes).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 11, 2018, 11:37
sounds good, yeah, especially with the new 3s rule in use

I'll take Dempster to beat Würzt at 2.2 or so. Sbaragli crashed the other day, and he hasn't had a good sprint for a year anyway. Time for Dempster (and Boivin?) to step up and give it a go.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 11, 2018, 19:44
Reasoning was a bit off as the finish was very fast and quite chaotic, but a wins a win (even if it was by just 1 place!).

Giro Stage 8

Carapaz 151ew
O'Connor 151ew

If a break doesn't take it, these two should be part of medium sized group that will contest the finish. Could sneak away with a late attack if the bigger names are watching each other.

Sbaragli crashed the other day, and he hasn't had a good sprint for a year anyway.

Make that a year and a day.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 11, 2018, 21:05
Make that a year and a day.

...and two time lucky, 95th from Dempster wasn't quite what I was thinking about. But anyway...
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 12, 2018, 18:09
Giro Stage 8

Carapaz 151ew

Very well picked.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 12, 2018, 18:21
The Milky Bars are on me! :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 12, 2018, 18:26
Is that the biggest priced single bet you've ever had come in?
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 12, 2018, 18:52
Nah. A few years back now I had golden couple of weeks which was topped off with Wellens winning his first Eneco at 401ew. It wasn't even on PP.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 12, 2018, 19:07
Nah. A few years back now I had golden couple of weeks which was topped off with Wellens winning his first Eneco at 401ew. It wasn't even on PP.

My guess is they shut or restricted your account quite swiftly after that.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 16, 2018, 00:29
Giro Stage 11

Yates 8/1 with Ladbrokes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 20, 2018, 09:48
Nice one Carlo.

Giro Stage 15

O'Connor v Betancur 2.75
Pinot v Yates 2.5
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on May 20, 2018, 20:16
Giro Stage 16

Bennett v MAL 2.25
Pozzovivo v Yates 3.25
Cavagna v Dowsett 4.33

Couldn't resist the big prices on the second two.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on May 20, 2018, 20:31
Nice one Carlo.

Giro Stage 15

O'Connor v Betancur 2.75
Pinot v Yates 2.5

First win on a cycling bet for ages but at 8/1 it seemed a reasonable gamble given the form he'd shown so far for a finish like that.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 26, 2018, 06:35
Here I was thinking I'd be clever and get on Nieve but turns out he's favourite. Will have to take Kreuziger instead.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on May 26, 2018, 07:00
ohh, but Kilian Frankiny said he wants to win today! :P
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 26, 2018, 07:21
I'm sure he'd like to win Milano-Torino too

(in fairness haven't looked through the book yet)
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on May 26, 2018, 08:53
Capecchi @ 1000 (Betfair win only) to not just get his first top 10 in four years, but crush the monster breakaway he finds himself in.
Felix @ 301 & Lutsenko @ 251 (Bet365)

Also what has the world come to with Jack Haig @ 15s.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 02, 2018, 15:00
It's Derby day and in the spirit of Leadbelly's bets on the Grand National I'll be having £1 e/w on Zabriskie.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 05, 2018, 20:18
Dauphine TTT

BMC v Sky 4.0

Okay it's a very strong Sky TTT squad on paper, but even without their a-team here I think BMC can give them a run for their (well it's mine really) money. If we discount the Hammer TTT when BMC had multi mechs one after another, Sky haven't won a TTT head to head between the two of them since the 2016 Vuelta (I think).

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 07, 2018, 19:20
Tour de Suisse GC

Costa 151ew
Wellens 151ew

Rui Costa a three time winner here.

TdS Stage 1

Quickstep 81

Do I think they'll win? No, but 81 is still to big.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 13, 2018, 11:04
World Cup

Same deal as four years ago with a multi on all of a country's group games being overs.

Uruguay 9.5
Morocco 13.25
Australia 8.32
Nigeria 9.18
Costa Rica 10.14
South Korea 8.51
England 7.38
Poland 10.27
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on June 14, 2018, 21:31
my probably last 2 bets for the T de F GC to go along with my Zakarin bet from a while ago

Kelderman 150/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1,2,3

and

Kruijswijk 150/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1,2,3

Both with Boylesport.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on June 28, 2018, 19:07
TdF KoM

Molard 301ew
Bouet 501ew

Thanks to search's post on the jersey contenders we know the KoM this year is weighted towards non-GC guys in breaks.

Molard has said he'll go for it on the punchy finishes (Quimper, Mur de Bretagne and Mende) and then try for the breakaways in the second half of the tour ie. the half with all the serious KoM points.

Bouet's team mate might be interested in the jersey again, but has shown no form this year, so I'll stick with the in-form Max.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 15, 2018, 11:29
TdeF Stage 9

Degenkolb @ 25/1
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 16, 2018, 22:19
Stage 10

Navarro @ 33/1 with Ladbrokes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on July 18, 2018, 20:29
TdF Stage 11

Kangert 251
Ion Izagirre 201
Calmejane 151

Some Hail Marys for fun.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on July 27, 2018, 21:12
Stage 20

Thomas @4/1 with Ladbrokes
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 11, 2018, 19:58
Euros

Neilands 201ew
Morkov 301ew

 :shh
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 11, 2018, 20:34
...and another.

MVDP v Sagan 4.33
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 11, 2018, 20:42
wouldn't be too surprised if Sagan DNFs this tbh

any idea if Thwaites is back in shape? Looks like his kind of weather, and the 2014 Commonwealth Games (on this course) more or less were his breakthrough...

Denz doesn't seem to be listed unfortunately. Could be a good failback option for #teamde
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on August 12, 2018, 08:45
Euro Champs

Magnus Cort 18/1 with Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 19, 2018, 08:46
Eneco #7

Sütterlin @126 e/w
Kirsch @251 e/w

The attacks will come anyway, I guess
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 22, 2018, 13:07
Vuelta Points

Goncalves 1001ew with Bet365

Favorites for the Maillot Verde

Eventhough, he still could cost the other sprinters valuable points, lacking in the fight against the better climbers in the end. Alejandro Valverde or Simon Yates are first to mention there of course, combining top climbing abilities with a great sprint, but also Michael Kwiatkowski or Jose Goncalves could come into play if they score enough points on the easier uphill finishes.

 :D
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 25, 2018, 20:12
Vuelta Stage 2

Bilbao 301ew

Bretagne Classic

Muhlberger 201ew

I was reading somewhere that's it a tougher course than normal this year. Not sure if that's true or not, but I'll avoid the usual sprinty suspects and try a different type of rider in form.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on August 26, 2018, 10:50
https://twitter.com/velofacts/status/1033431085441540096

looks like Geschke is in good shape. Worth a try @201 e/w today
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on August 27, 2018, 20:27
Vuelta Stage 4

Pernsteiner 301ew
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 01, 2018, 08:25
Vuelta Stage 8

Interesting finish.

Uran @ 201
De Plus @ 301
Mas @ 401

Best case scenario is 2nd I think given Piti wins if it's hard enough for these three.

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Arb on September 01, 2018, 11:08
Just realised the silliness of what I said so hedged plus a bit on Valverde (@ 10 on PP better than Betfair).
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 07, 2018, 07:26
Vuelta Stage 13

Pernsteiner 101

Let's have another go with him.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 11, 2018, 20:23
Vuelta Stage 17

De Gendt 126

Bonifications could be crucial to the GC, so chances are the break won't be successful tomorrow, but De Gendt has said he's after the KoM and a stage win. He might as well try.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 13, 2018, 09:24
Vuelta #18, Machado @501

he has been in those weak flat-day breakaways with almost no chance to succeed two or three times already in this Vuelta - today there could be a small one to stay clear
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: search on September 13, 2018, 16:40
Vuelta #18, Machado @501

he has been in those weak flat-day breakaways with almost no chance to succeed two or three times already in this Vuelta - today there could be a small one to stay clear

wrong day not to be in a hopeless breakaway. Obviously I had Bol as well :fp :fp
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 21, 2018, 19:47
Worlds TTT

LottoNL Jumbo v Movistar 2.25 Bet365
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 27, 2018, 20:00
Men's U23 RR

Hanninen 151ew
Maas 401ew

I'd better put my money where my mouth is as regards Jaakko.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 28, 2018, 08:11
Men's U23 RR

Hanninen 151ew

I'd better put my money where my mouth is as regards Jaakko.

....and I'll have a bit more at 251ew. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 28, 2018, 17:52
"I love it when a plan comes together."

:betting :betting
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 28, 2018, 19:45
Men's RR

Fuglsang v Roglic 2.62

Roglic has pretty much zero one-day pedigree.
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on September 29, 2018, 18:41
Mens RR

Tony Gallopin @ 80/1

Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on September 29, 2018, 20:48
Men's RR

Hermans 601ew
Taaramae 751ew
Kiryienka 1001ew
Polanc 1001ew

 :nomnom :nomnom :nomnom :nomnom
Title: Re: Betting Thread
Post by: Leadbelly on October 05, 2018, 20:35
Emilia

Polanc 501ew

Nominally the team leader. Has finished sixth on the course before.

Paris-Tours

Chavanel 151

It's not La Machine's last race, but it's almost certainly the last chance to get a bet on him.