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Professional Cycling => Road Races => Topic started by: AG on April 05, 2018, 07:38

Title: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 05, 2018, 07:38
Yes - its finally here.  That 'One Sunday in Hell" that each year we wait anxiously for, and pray for rain.

2018 Paris Roubaix

(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Xty4VomAyys/maxresdefault.jpg)

There is simply no other race like it.  257km long, with 29 cobbled sections totalling 54.5km ... and the cobbles are very different to those of Flanders that the riders have spent the last 6 weeks riding on.  These are the cobbles of France ... they are big, mossy, slippery, rough and hard. 

Each cobbled section is rated ... lowest of 1 star to the super difficult 5 star sections such as the Forest of Arenberg - which is where things traditionally kick off.  Mind, the race for position heading into the famous trench is almost as hectic as the finish line of any other race.

The finish - who doesnt dream of a solo celebration lap around the velodrome of Roubaix, with the coolest trophy in cycling waiting for you.

(http://cdn.media.cyclingnews.com/2017/04/09/2/sptdw6023_670.jpg)


Route

This year we have 257km, with 29 sections of cobbles. 

(https://v2-medias.aso.fr/core_app/img-cycling-prx-jpg/prx18-carte-v2/0134/0:0,1091:1500-620-0-70/987bf)


(https://cdn.cyclingstage.com/images/paris-roubaix/2018/profile.jpg)


(https://i.imgur.com/gzyFHJv.png)


The Contenders


Like the rest of the spring, the might of the Quickstep team will prove to be a huge factor in determining this race.  Can anyone overcome their pure weight of numbers?

Will Sagan, Van Avermaet and the other contenders be able to work together?

Van Avermaet comes into the race as the defending champion, and in good form - but not the super confidence-inspiring winning form of last spring.  Still, he is in good shape, and if things go right for him he could find himself with back to back wins here. 

Sagan too is that tiny bit off his best shape - but perhaps that might work to his advantage if other riders figure that finally they might have a chance and might work with him.  He comes here with a better team than he has ever had - but made mistakes in how to deploy them at Flanders so needs to do better here.

For Gilbert this is the race he wants this season.  His #striveforfive campaign is in full force and he WANTS this.  But for Quickstep that could prove to be an issue if the cards fall differently and it is one of the other team members up front.  Can he put aside his ambitions and execute team orders?  Is he even strong enough ... this is a race he has not ridden in 10 years (mind, he had not ridden Flanders in the 5 years prior to winning it last year .. so I am saying yes :D )

Terpstra, Stybar and even Lampaert all have a good chance too given the strength of the team.  They can simply put guy after guy off the front until one of them sticks - and then rely on the others not to work together

And then there are lesser favourites that are strong, train hard and desperately want this ... who only need that bit of luck going their way to make their mark.

So - who's dream will come true ... and who's dreams will lay broken on the cobbles of France?


Star Rating

:* :* :* :* :*   Van Avermaet, Sagan, Gilbert

:* :* :* :*   Terpstra, VanMarcke, Naeson

:* :* :* Stybar, Van Aert, Stuyven, Demare

:* :* Degenkolb, Haussler, Trentin

:* Stannard, Rowe, Durbridge


Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2018, 11:19
https://youtu.be/zxBTVU9JDrA
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: L'arri on April 05, 2018, 12:05
Dry, overcast and 19 Celsius on Sunday. No epic rainy edition this year.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2018, 13:52
The wife said might take the kids with some friends they can cook some sausages play outside. You want to come.

Me might do some stuff at home.

Wife ok cool see closer to Sunday.

Wife what flipping bike race is on

Me Roubaix

Wife ahh no chance you coming then

Me nice :lol
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2018, 14:37
...big, mossy, slippery, rough and hard.
The worst Tinder profile ever.
[Sorry, just couldn't resist]  :-x


Dry, overcast and 19 Celsius on Sunday. No epic rainy edition this year.
You trying to get yourself banned from Velorooms, or something? :angry

:D

Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2018, 14:50
As difficult as it has become over the years, I'm really going to try to find a decent live feed on Sunday.

Not that it matters in the grand scheme, but it appears that there is only one, solitary American rider even entering the race this year—Taylor Phinney? After winning the junior race twice, he was never a threat in Roubaix as a pro. I haven't been following along, so is he even healthy? Has he accomplished anything of note this season that would put him on anyone's radar? Truth be told, I hadn't even realized he was still even riding professionally.


No wonder American TV is giving zero priority to Roubaix this year.  :secretlol
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 05, 2018, 15:04
he is riding.

He rode Flanders last weekend, but didnt do anything of note.

to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: LukasCPH on April 05, 2018, 17:19
The wife said might take the kids with some friends they can cook some sausages play outside. You want to come.

Me might do some stuff at home.

Wife ok cool see closer to Sunday.

Wife what flipping bike race is on

Me Roubaix

Wife ahh no chance you coming then

Me nice :lol
*se Jättebra! :cool :D

to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
I don't think he will.
I also think he's not beating himself up about that, but has accepted this 'fate', enjoying to be a classics super-domestique instead. And painting some paintings in his spare time.
:)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 06, 2018, 13:51
https://twitter.com/VitalConcept_CC/status/982191077204549633
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 06, 2018, 23:09
I tried to improve the map of the cobbled sectors , just because  :)

The secteurs are color coded according to difficulty (star rating) + added a few key names for reference.

(https://i.imgur.com/O2IaQ57.png)

Pay attention to the Saint-Python and Querenaing areas, before the Arenberg. These are two areas of many intermediate difficulty cobbled sections with little space in between them. To the riders they will feel more like two long cobbled sections with short rest points. If you rate the cobbles on difficulty*length instead if difficulty alone, these areas score higher than the Arenberg(!)

If you see #mitchelton Matt Hayman sneaking away on one of these sections :-x ...it's his last lap! He's the most experienced rider here now, and he won one of the most exciting vintages of the last few years, on the velodrome! Be warned!
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 07, 2018, 09:07
first Star ratings in the papers today:

*be Het Nieuwsblad
:*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
:*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
:*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
:*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
:* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

t-72 will not approve :D
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 07, 2018, 13:06
first Star ratings in the papers today:

*be Het Nieuwsblad
:*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
:*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
:*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
:*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
:* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

t-72 will not approve :D

I couldn't let that one go  :angry

Or, actually - I don't think it is that bad  :) I agree that Terpstra is top favorite, he knows how to win here, he is in very good shape and he rides for the best team. Sagan, Van Avermaet, and Gilbert should also always be included as candidates. However, further down the list I am less certain.
Statistically, the Paris-Roubaix is the most difficult to win of all the monuments. There are very few if any in the past 10s of years that have won the Paris-Roubaix without previous experience from the race and at least one top 10 finish. Filtering Het Nieuwsblaads list by that criteria will be hard on the young ones on the list.

Let me present the P-R experience of the riders in a simple table:

ShirtTeamNameAgeparticipatons Best resultTOP 5TOP 10
#bmcBMCGreg van Avermaet328133
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsNiki Terpstra3310133
#trek Trek-SegafredoJohn Degenkolb296123
#ef EF – Drapac p/b CannondaleSep Vanmarcke296233
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsZdenek Stybar325234
#trek Trek-SegafredoJasper Stuyven254411
#skyTeam SkyGianni Moscon232511
#boraBora-HansgrohePeter Sagan286611
#fdjGroupama-FDJArnaud Demare264601
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsYves Lampaert263701
#ag2rAG2ROliver Naesen2733100
#mitcheltonMitchelton-ScottMatteo Trentin2853600
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsPhilippe Gilbert3515200
#trek *dkTrek-SegafredoMads Pedersen2219500
#verandasVerandas WilhelmsWout van Aert230

4 riders on the list are top 10 candidates, not winner candidates:
#verandas Wout van Aert: hasn't even done the race before, cyclocross worlds doesn't count here - OUT
#trek *dk Mads Pedersen has  only one previous participation, finished in 95th position - OUT
#mitchelton Mateo Trentin: 5 previous participations, best previous result 46th, - OUT
#quickstep Philippe Gilbert: 1 previous participation long ago, and not very good - OUT

In place of these I would put some other riders with previous top 10 finishes, for example:
#ef Sebastian Langeveld
#mitchelton Matt Hayman
#sky Ian Stannard
#didata Edvald Boasson Hagen  :D (you knew I had too  :angel )

EDIT: surprised me a little bit too see how few top results Sagan has in this race. Moscon already has better results than him!


Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 07, 2018, 13:14
actually I was more thinking about Kristoff than EBH after his (to me) surprisingly strong showing in the Ronde - but I didn't realize that somehow he has never been a real factor in Paris Roubaix

Generally I agree that experience is important, and we'll probably see more or less the same guys in front as usual. I'm not so sure about Langeveld though. In top shape he is a contender (although on paper better suited to the Ronde, despite finishing 3rd here last year) but tbh from the position on the road he had last week he should have been able to fight for the win and not finish in 22nd
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 07, 2018, 13:33
Edvald Boasson Hagen remains more hellbent on one day winning the Paris-Roubaix than most people realize. There have been quite a few critical remarks about him gaining weight and sacrificing climbing performance, critics suggest he would get better results if he had focused on more hilly races. (Preferably with his 2011 body). When confronted with this type of statements in a tv portrait interview he just said no: "the most important race for me is the Paris-Roubaix. That's the one I would really like to win, because it is the most difficult one to win."

It looks like he has recovered from his operation early this year and his form curve is still rising, so I am pretty sure he's motivated. If he has extended his endurance with some 800 m since 2016, he should be in the finale  :D

Aleksander Kristoff has a top 10 but always says he doesn't like the Paris-Roubaix cobbles, preferring the explosive hills of de Ronde to the flat French variety. He has been struggling with the cold on a couple of occasions this year and I think #uae policy of keeping him in the race even if not in shape has backfired. He doesnt look as strong as he should be this time of year. OR he's tricking everyone, talking down his own chances to fly more under the radar. The only monument he hasn't won that he can win, is this one. However, I don't think it'll be this year.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2018, 13:49
first Star ratings in the papers today:

*be Het Nieuwsblad
:*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
:*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
:*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
:*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
:* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

t-72 will not approve :D

Recon the winner comes from someone not on the list
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 07, 2018, 15:10
Despite my dooming review of his Paris-Roubaix statistics, Philippe Gilbert is hungry for more:

https://twitter.com/PhilippeGilbert/status/982544672827551744
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 07, 2018, 19:25
more stars:

*nl de Telegraaf
:*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
:*:*:*:* Sagan, van Avermaet, Gilbert
:*:*:* Stybar, Pedersen, Vanmarcke, van Aert
:*:* van Baarle, Langeveld, Démare, Stuyven, Naesen, Trentin
:* Teunissen, Lampaert, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Roelandts, Moscon, EBH
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 07, 2018, 19:40
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DaM1d_QWAAEMAZ5.jpg:large)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Yellow Peril on April 07, 2018, 20:33
Most open race for a while in my opinion. Just can't call it.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 07, 2018, 22:01
he is riding.

He rode Flanders last weekend, but didnt do anything of note.

to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
Exactly. Which is a shame, but I don't blame him. His reconstruction included more than just the bone - it included joint and soft tissue. Nasty.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 07, 2018, 22:44
ed: beautiful Het Nieuwsblad cover

Wouldn't say they might be a bit partial, eh?
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 06:47
With everyone looking at Quickstep (and Sagan?) I really like the chance of an outsider to win today. And it will be especially interesting to see what happens if #quickstep Lampaert or Senechal manages to get into an "early" move - are BMC, Bora and EF willing to give Terpstra, Gilbert and Stybar and armchair ride into the finale?

...and talking about outsiders: there was an interview with #direct Damien Gaudin in Ouest France today and he said "with Chavanel, [Petit and me,] we have three protected riders for the win. Just like Quickstep.".

Not sure if that's a fair comparison... but anyway. Let the green army #europcar #europcar #europcar role like it's 2013.

Also Bert de Backer could be someone to watch out for. He was a super dom for Degenkolb in recent years and still finished close to the Top 10 several times - now he is the captain for #vital Vital Concept. And what about #sky Rowe?! Knaven said he will win! Oh my... can't wait :D
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Yellow Peril on April 08, 2018, 07:50
I notice Thomas has said that this (type) of race is where his heart lies. He needs to get a grip and have a word with himself because a couple of years ago it was all about being a stage racer. I think he's a better one day racer than stage racer (also less chances to crash if you're only racing for one day). I'd like to see him commit to being a classics racer going forward.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2018, 08:14
Barbie is going to win that it all
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 08, 2018, 08:24
Here's some statistics for you, this is why I say no-one wins this race first time they try. The racers listed include some of this years favorites and all winners from the last 15 years.  The results are listed per year from the year of their first participation. None of the winners won until the 4th year after their first participation. Both Boonen and Cancellara won their first victory in their 4th participation. If someone wins it first year, they will be nominated for instant league of legends status!
I also heard, and recounted, that in order to win in this race, you need at least 1 top 10 finish earlier. For the winners from the last 15 years, that is almost true. Stuart O'Grady won in 2007, without a previous top 10.
Now there's a lot of hype surrounding Wout van Aert especially, but I hope his management has done a good job of making him understand that a victory is highly unlikely, a top 5 is an exceptional debut (only Boonen managed this), and a top 10 is a very good start (Boonen/Bäckstedt/Stybar). If van Aeart really thinks he is going to win this, I hope he thinks "but maybe not this year".
 
(https://i.imgur.com/wUgO20Z.png)

Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 08:26
I notice Thomas has said that this (type) of race is where his heart lies. He needs to get a grip and have a word with himself because a couple of years ago it was all about being a stage racer. I think he's a better one day racer than stage racer (also less chances to crash if you're only racing for one day). I'd like to see him commit to being a classics racer going forward.

oh, no worries, he already crashed during the recon on Thursday, so he is able to manage that :D
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 08:31
I also heard, and recounted, that in order to win in this race, you need at least 1 top 10 finish earlier. For the winners from the last 15 years, that is almost true. Stuart O'Grady won in 2007, without a previous top 10.
Now there's a lot of hype surrounding Wout van Aert especially, but I hope his management has done a good job of making him understand that a victory is highly unlikely, a top 5 is an exceptional debut (only Boonen managed this), and a top 10 is a very good start (Boonen/Bäckstedt/Stybar). If van Aeart really thinks he is going to win this, I hope he thinks "but maybe not this year".

yeah, I also checked those stats earlier on:
Stybar could have come pretty close to winning it as a rookie hadn't he crashed into that spectator late in the race though.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2018, 08:36
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QSpuhIQg1A
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 08, 2018, 08:49
Rookies in the Top 10 during the past 15 editions:
  • Zdenek Stybar 6th in 2013
  • Martijn Maaskant 4th in 2008
  • Bjorn Leukemans 4th in 2007
  • Staf Scheirlinckx 10th in 2006
  • Fabian Cancellara 4th in 2005
  • Arnaud Coyat 10th in 2005
[/list]
Stybar could have come pretty close to winning it as a rookie hadn't he crashed into that spectator late in the race though.
According to ProCyclingStats, Cancellara participated in 2003 with DNF result, so he should not be on that list, if that is correct ?
You're quite right when it comes to Stybar, his record is the only one of the present bunch that looks like it can come close to a Boonen/Cancellara statistic. With the hype surrounding van Aert, consider that Stybar matches him on CX experience and then has the Paris-Roubaix experience in addition.
Then look at Philippe Gilbert's statistics in this race; he is more or less at the same level as Mads Pedersen.
(Take away stars from van Aert, Gilbert, give to Stybar  :D ).

Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 08:55
According to ProCyclingStats, Cancellara participated in 2003 with DNF result, so he should not be on that list, if that is correct ?

ah, yeah, I used cq as it's easier to search for results from a particular race only - and they don't seem to have the DNFs listed from 2003 unfortunately, so he didn't show up there
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 08, 2018, 09:08
What about Wiggans?  He was top 10 in his first participation .... or had he ridden it quite a few years ago?


anyway -

(Take away stars from van Aert, Gilbert, give to Stybar  :D ).


wash your mouth out !!!!! 
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 09:27
What about Wiggans?  He was top 10 in his first participation .... or had he ridden it quite a few years ago?

he did it three times (49-25-90) before coming 9th in 2014
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2018, 13:43
I tried to improve the map of the cobbled sectors , just because  :)

The secteurs are color coded according to difficulty (star rating) + added a few key names for reference.

(https://i.imgur.com/O2IaQ57.png)

Pay attention to the Saint-Python and Querenaing areas, before the Arenberg. These are two areas of many intermediate difficulty cobbled sections with little space in between them. To the riders they will feel more like two long cobbled sections with short rest points. If you rate the cobbles on difficulty*length instead if difficulty alone, these areas score higher than the Arenberg(!)

If you see #mitchelton Matt Hayman sneaking away on one of these sections :-x ...it's his last lap! He's the most experienced rider here now, and he won one of the most exciting vintages of the last few years, on the velodrome! Be warned!

Map getting famous velorooms tweeted it earlier this week now getting tweeted
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Iceman on April 08, 2018, 15:44
Boring race this year.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 08, 2018, 16:40
Boring race this year.

If you think that was boring, I wouldn't waste time watching the next fortnight's races.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 08, 2018, 16:53
https://twitter.com/Paris_Roubaix/status/983005255716757504
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Leadbelly on April 08, 2018, 19:48
https://twitter.com/Snipercycling/status/983013865872117761

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20180408_03451687
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 08, 2018, 21:20
Time for a wrap-up post:
First the official results:


Just updated my statistics with the results of those we thought were the favorites + this year's top 10 performers not mentioned. The general conclusion is still valid. To win the P-R you need to qualify in the P-R.

Applying these rules, riders that made top 10 for the first time this year are added to the list of potential winners for 2019 and on. This includes:

Others notably on the way up, but not ready for first place yet (get that top-10 first):

I think most of the big disappointments disappointed due to falling, except maybe Arnaud Demare who seemed to be out of shape. Aleksander Kristoff also looked like Demare in the early cobbled sectors and explained in post-race interviews that the mud on the first sector was sticking to his frame, rubbing on his tires and eventually caused his back tire to explode. Maybe Demare had similar issues.

And then #sky Gianni Moscon... lost his mojo or what?
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 21:37
And then #sky Gianni Moscon... lost his mojo or what?

and a bit of skin

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DaSJt7pX0AIkcsW.jpg:large)

not sure if that happened in the crash early on or if there was another one
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Yellow Peril on April 08, 2018, 21:42
Great edition, really pleased for Dillier he deserved to get something out of that and knew by committing to Sagan fully was his best bet.
Talking of bets Thomas crashed. I should have bet my mortgage on that.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 08, 2018, 21:42
ok, I didn't notice Moscon crashing, so we can add him to list of favorites falling behind due to crashes. He still has his top-10 in the bag and will be back for another chance next year. From my list (now last 16 years) there are no-one winning before 4th attempt, so still too early for him.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 08, 2018, 22:21
Great edition, really pleased for Dillier he deserved to get something out of that and knew by committing to Sagan fully was his best bet.
Talking of bets Thomas crashed. I should have bet my mortgage on that.

Plus Luke Rowe got taken out.
Only goes to show that Hell is no place for a Welshman. :D
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 08, 2018, 22:36
About Rowe + Kristoff + Martin falling, Kristoff is more or less echoing what the #fdj riders said about Martin after the crash of Duchesne in RvV. Now Kristoff is in a way very polite because he always answers requests for interviews but he isn't the born diplomat to start with, and if he have just pedaled 250 km + to a great disappointment, he is even less of a diplomat: Still blaiming Martin for the crash...
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 08, 2018, 22:45
I may need to have another look at it, but wasn't it Terpstra (or another Quickstep riding guy a "wave" from left to right) who caused the crash?

edit: yep

https://video.eurosport.com/cycling/paris-roubaix/2018/kristoff-martin-rowe.-all-on-the-ground-peloton-rocked-by-big-crash_vid1079940/video.shtml
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 08, 2018, 23:07
Sadly, tragically, the news is the worst.  :(

https://twitter.com/Snipercycling/status/983095274720649216

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DaSnwFrXcAAJE9f.jpg)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 09, 2018, 00:39
 :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :(
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 09, 2018, 01:19
If you think that was boring, I wouldn't waste time watching the next fortnight's races.
Ah, MV, I caught you sneakin' that yawn in about the last 10k! 

Time for a wrap-up post:
 . . .
Just updated my statistics with the results of those we thought were the favorites + this year's top 10 performers not mentioned. The general conclusion is still valid. To win the P-R you need to qualify in the P-R.
  • at least a handful of P-R starts before winning (This was Sagan's 6th attempt).
  • at least one  previous top 10.

Applying these rules, riders that made top 10 for the first time this year are added to the list of potential winners for 2019 and on. This includes:
  • #ag2r Silvan Dillier
  • #katusha Nils Politt
  • #ef Taylor Phinney
. . .


Great edition, really pleased for Dillier he deserved to get something out of that and knew by committing to Sagan fully was his best bet.
Talking of bets Thomas crashed. I should have bet my mortgage on that.

Yep, G Thomas crashed. That's safe enough you wouldn't get good odds.

Dillier, another Pederson newb surprise. Wasn't even slated to ride a couple weeks ago. Called in as replacement. Their DS must be thanking his lucky stars. Great ride, AND he was only two bike lengths away from spoiling your stats! And Phinney showing some real strength for the first time in a long while. Good on him.

I think Sagan showed us something of his full potential today. That was one hell of a ride. I know AG isn't happy with his win, and neither will be Echoes. But it was great. He slammed away on the front for a good part of 20 km before Dillier came through. Worked out well though. Grand ride by Sagan.

He learned from pinch-gate, maybe he'll learn from complaint-gate. I am optimistic.

Entirely tragic for Goolaerts, his team and family. Only 22. They will be gutted.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: just some guy on April 09, 2018, 04:21
RIP Michael Goolaerts
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 09, 2018, 07:17
About the Martin, Rowe, Kristoff fall and who to blame - that is now, in perspective, a rather trivial and pointless discussion. The news of Goolaerts` death, while not completely unexpected the way things yesterday played out, are tragic. My condolences to his family, friends and his team.  :(
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 09, 2018, 07:46
yes, another tragic loss. May he rest in peace.

The way I understood it yesterday he had a heart attack on the bike - is that correct? Most mass media seems to have picked it up in the way that he died due to the consequences of the crash.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 09, 2018, 07:58
I have no idea what happened except cardiac arrest. Details will probably be given at a later stage, and that will be a better time to discuss what can be learned from this. For now,  :(
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Flo on April 09, 2018, 10:28
RIP Michael :(
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 09, 2018, 14:41
yes, another tragic loss. May he rest in peace.

The way I understood it yesterday he had a heart attack on the bike - is that correct? Most mass media seems to have picked it up in the way that he died due to the consequences of the crash.
Definitely, RIP Michael Goolaerts.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Francois the Postman on April 09, 2018, 17:12
One of those cycling days when it really doesn't matter what else happend. flipping awful.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: rote_laterne on April 09, 2018, 20:22
Sad, another loss. RIP Michael Goolaerts.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 09, 2018, 22:18
On a lighter note...

Terpstra checking Sagan's tyre pressure

https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true
 (https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true)

Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 09, 2018, 23:01
On a lighter note...

Terpstra checking Sagan's tyre pressure

https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true
 (https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?explore=true)


:lol
And a quick wheel check, making sure they didn't have those self-spinning bearings, I'm sure!
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 10, 2018, 01:09
One of those cycling days when it really doesn't matter what else happend. flipping awful.

yep that.

I havent even commented on the race to be honest ...
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 10, 2018, 08:09
I don't really know why, but somehow I feel it's more difficult to cope with a fatal race incident. It's sad of course to see such a young person die, but the way it looks like (although the autopsy is still to come) this probably could have happened any day, also in training, so for me personally I somehow see it pretty unrelated to the race itself.

Now that it did happen in the biggest classic there is though, let's hope it will lead to some changes in regards of steady medical observation, heart disease screenings and so on at least.

edit: Cyclingtips had a piece about heart problems in pro cycling a while ago

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/01/are-elite-cyclists-at-greater-risk-of-heart-problems/

edit 2: ok, an annual heart test is mandatory already for WT and PCT riders. I didn't know

http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/CleanSport/16/76/80/ProgrammeofobligatoryMM2013ROADE_English.pdf
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: AG on April 10, 2018, 10:48
I didnt know that.

I do know what you mean though.  The accident of Weyland in the Giro, and the moto accident 2 yrs ago I found very confronting. 


Anyway - the race.

Well done to Peter Sagan.  He found a way to beat Quickstep, and did it exceptionally well.  If you cant defend - attack.

It was a good race, everyone gave as much as they had.   Sep VanMarcke's account was very honest - he just didnt have the legs.

Phil too admitted that he simply cracked ...

he should have done the race last year when he was flying - just for the experience.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 10, 2018, 12:53
I don't really know why, but somehow I feel it's more difficult to cope with a fatal race incident. It's sad of course to see such a young person die, but the way it looks like (although the autopsy is still to come) this probably could have happened any day, also in training, so for me personally I somehow see it pretty unrelated to the race itself.

Now that it did happen in the biggest classic there is though, let's hope it will lead to some changes in regards of steady medical observation, heart disease screenings and so on at least.

edit: Cyclingtips had a piece about heart problems in pro cycling a while ago

https://cyclingtips.com/2017/01/are-elite-cyclists-at-greater-risk-of-heart-problems/

edit 2: ok, an annual heart test is mandatory already for WT and PCT riders. I didn't know

http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/CleanSport/16/76/80/ProgrammeofobligatoryMM2013ROADE_English.pdf
I am quite sure that most of the teams have regular heart checkups more frequently than required these days. Of course, I don't know about all of the smaller teams, but with the topic having come up before, some WT teams have responded in interviews and whatnot that they do more as part of their routine. I believe I recall that a few riders have even had heart surgery in recent years, to correct problems that would have gone under the radar with an old-fashioned stethoscope routine. Goolaerts, though, was on one of the smaller teams, and who knows how extensive their testing was.

"Unrelated to the race itself . . ."
Yes, quite so. There has been no indication that this incident was caused by head or neck trauma that was a direct result of the accident. Oddly, perhaps, because it was apparently a more personal health incident, I find it easier to deal with, rather than harder. I can certainly empathize with you though.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 10, 2018, 13:35
for a moment, maybe we can return to what we love the most about Roubaix.

For example, this little story of #delko Evaldas Siskevicius, the broom wagon, and a broken down team car on the trailer. A video of 3 minutes, very worthy to watch :cool

http://sporza.be/cm/sporza/wielrennen/1.3177570

Spoiler (hover to show)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 10, 2018, 15:42
I have been told that Burghardt was part of Terpstra's G2. If that is correct, and if he managed to slow the chase, even a little, that could have made all the difference. At 20km to go, Sagan-Dillier had pulled the gap out to 1:30. Between 18km and 8km Terpstra et al managed to gain back half of that - cutting the gap to :44 at one point, when it once again stabilized. It was only then that one could forecast with confidence that Sagan-Dillier looked to make it all the way. 
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 10, 2018, 15:49
for a moment, maybe we can return to what we love the most about Roubaix.

For example, this little story of #delko Evaldas Siskevicius, the broom wagon, and a broken down team car on the trailer. A video of 3 minutes, very worthy to watch :cool
 . . .

If Burghardt WAS in Terpstra's G2, and managed to help control the gap, add Siskevicius, and I think the status of this race just went to 4.5 stars or better. Really great little story.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: search on April 10, 2018, 16:02
I have been told that Burghardt was part of Terpstra's G2. If that is correct, and if he managed to slow the chase, even a little, that could have made all the difference. At 20km to go, Sagan-Dillier had pulled the gap out to 1:30. Between 18km and 8km Terpstra et al managed to gain back half of that - cutting the gap to :44 at one point, when it once again stabilized. It was only then that one could forecast with confidence that Sagan-Dillier looked to make it all the way.

only until Mons-en-Pévèle. I had a closer look at it yesterday, because in the post race interview Haussler mentioned that he just just missed the jump into that group because he was riding behind a rider who couldn't follow on the cobbles - that, in fact, was Burghardt

Sorry for the bad quality, but you can still see how G2 was established (Stuyven, van Aert, Vandenbergh, Debusschere and Phinney were ahead at that point as they already attacked earlier on - that's how they made the jump in G2):

(https://i.imgur.com/QMyVj8j.png)

Terpstra accelerates with Vanmarcke on his wheel (below the "45.6"), Gilbert closely behind. Van Avermaet in 4th gets out of the saddle to close the gap with a sprint, Bert de Backer on his wheel, somehow managing to keep up with him. Then we have Burghardt, Grondahl and Haussler. Haussler passes the young Jumbo rider on the right but gets blocked by Burghardt, leaving him with no chance to close the gap.

In the next shot (after showing EBH dangling at the back...) we see Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Gilbert, van Avermaet and de Backer together at the end of the sector. De Backer explodes immediately. Gilbert pays for his effort in the next sector. That's how G2 established.

Haussler said he had another try and came close to get back into G2, but then he had a mechanical and his race was over.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 10, 2018, 19:36
only until Mons-en-Pévèle.  . . .

Terpstra accelerates with Vanmarcke on his wheel (below the "45.6"), Gilbert closely behind. Van Avermaet in 4th gets out of the saddle to close the gap with a sprint, Bert de Backer on his wheel, somehow managing to keep up with him. Then we have Burghardt, Grondahl and Haussler. Haussler passes the young Jumbo rider on the right but gets blocked by Burghardt, leaving him with no chance to close the gap.

 . . .
Ah, thank you. So Burghardt had 5 or 6 km to impact the chase. Not much, maybe something, maybe "every little bit helps".
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Carlo Algatrensig on April 10, 2018, 19:59
Ah, thank you. So Burghardt had 5 or 6 km to impact the chase. Not much, maybe something, maybe "every little bit helps".

There were a couple of occasions shortly after Sagan went that Burghardt was on the front of the following group. No one looked all that interested in passing him on one occasion so he would have helped the initial gap develop a bit
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 11, 2018, 01:16
There were a couple of occasions shortly after Sagan went that Burghardt was on the front of the following group. No one looked all that interested in passing him on one occasion so he would have helped the initial gap develop a bit
I think, given that nobody jumped to catch Sagan, Burghardt played his part well. On the front at the right time. I heard elsewhere that Burghardt was on the front at the time Sagan jumped, meaning anyone wanting to chase would have to go around. One of the big boys said he was a bit back and blocked, and wondering why nobody was chasing Petr as he watched him go up the road. I forget which one. But it looks like Burghardt played the part to perfection for long enough, and Sagan timed it to perfection.

I'm downloading recordings now to go back and take a look.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 11, 2018, 01:50
If you haven't seen this, you must do so! SO perfect!

Terpstra checks Peter's tire pressure! (https://www.instagram.com/p/BhUseS_F6sP/?t=1&cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email&iid=4174fce3561e4e0e8121fa7303489a7b&fl=4&uid=615090409&nid=244+293670920)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Caruut on April 11, 2018, 15:25
Feels strange to discuss racing after all that has happened. Utterly tragic, can only hope that there is some positive to come out of this, improved heart screening or something, greater awareness of undetected cardio issues etc. Just heartbreaking.

As for the race itself, to me the most interesting aspect was the cooperation between Sagan and Dillier. I know it's not exactly popular, but I can't help wondering if Peter's whining is paying off. In AG's thread last week, I suggested one of Sagan's weaknesses was his ability to strike a bargain. He seems very much to have done so with Dillier; I wonder if a rider like Dillier would have worked with 2015 Sagan, or seen the headstrong youngster's trust in his sprint as a golden ticket to the velodrome. I suspect the latter. I wonder too if it contributed to the initial intertia when he went clear - nobody really fancied 50km of him yapping about a lack of cooperation so just left him to ride away.

It is interesting that for all his talent in a sprint, his monument wins have both come by going solo.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 11, 2018, 22:39
Death in the peloton: On any given race day, tragedy can happen (https://cyclingtips.com/2018/04/death-in-the-peloton-on-any-given-race-day-tragedy-can-happen/amp/?__twitter_impression=true)

By Jonathan Vaughters
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 11, 2018, 22:44
https://twitter.com/Scienceofsport/status/983981188346990592


Sudden Cardiac Death in Athletes – a brief overview
 (http://sportsscientists.com/2018/04/sudden-cardiac-death-in-athletes-a-brief-overview/)
By Ross Tucker
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: t-72 on April 11, 2018, 23:16
(...about Sagan...)
It is interesting that for all his talent in a sprint, his monument wins have both come by going solo.

"Sprint" always was a bit of a poor word to describe what happens in a finish of 7 hour long race. Road racing is primarily an endurance sport, and the best classics riders may be unmatched (on this planet) when it comes to stamina.
This stamina is their primary qualification, and if they can finish fast after enduring 7 hrs in the saddle, great! Then they're all of a sudden referred to as sprinters.
To add even more of a word-wise paradox, the longest race on the calendar is often referred to as the sprinter's monument.
Contrast this with real sprint races which include sub-minute effortrs...

Anyway...my point is ... when a "sprinter" wins a monument on a longer range attack, it's an endurance athlete using his or hers primary qualification: stamina, endurance, and winning from that rather than the secondary skill of finishing fast. If they don't have the endurance they will not be there when the sprint starts and it does not matter how fast they are over the final 300 m.

Aleksander Kristoff also won the Ronde van Vlaanderen on an attack (with Terpstra) rather than a sprint (if we agree sprinting against Terpstra doesn't count.)
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Caruut on April 12, 2018, 17:23
"Sprint" always was a bit of a poor word to describe what happens in a finish of 7 hour long race. Road racing is primarily an endurance sport, and the best classics riders may be unmatched (on this planet) when it comes to stamina.

...

Aleksander Kristoff also won the Ronde van Vlaanderen on an attack (with Terpstra) rather than a sprint (if we agree sprinting against Terpstra doesn't count.)

Completely agree, and not meaning to take away from Sagan's obvious stamina and resistance.

I was more making the point that Sagan seems not to go clear of the favourites group with other riders very often - it's either clear alone or stalking the group waiting for the "sprint". Even with Dillier it seems to me that he benefitted from having a rider with him who both knew would be happy with 2nd, not a genuine pre-race favourite. If anything I suppose what I'm saying is that Sagan can trust in his sprint too much and never quite feel the need to make the race himself, but has actually found a lot of success when he does so.

In that sense I would distinguish Kristoff-Terpstra, in that the pair of them were both favourites, and went clear together. I don't know if Sagan's troubles are more related to him or to others, to his inability to marshall a group or the group's unwillingness to work with a rider who can outsprint anyone but the top flat-track boys a la Kittel etc.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 13, 2018, 17:00
. . . Sagan seems not to go clear of the favourites group with other riders very often - it's either clear alone or stalking the group waiting for the "sprint". Even with Dillier it seems to me that he benefitted from having a rider with him who both knew would be happy with 2nd, not a genuine pre-race favourite. If anything I suppose what I'm saying is that Sagan can trust in his sprint too much and never quite feel the need to make the race himself, but has actually found a lot of success when he does so.

 . . . I don't know if Sagan's troubles are more related to him or to others, to his inability to marshall a group or the group's unwillingness to work with a rider who can outsprint anyone but the top flat-track boys a la Kittel etc.

Except he even outsprints them often enough they are wary of him. I'd say you've hit the nail on the head - the source of discontent. It could be just a bad case of gas, but I have a feeling this win turns a personal corner for him, what with complaint-gate being in the air and all. I have a feeling we will see Sagan's tactics and attitudes shift a little in the future.

I don't think it will take a whole lot of shift - remember who was pulling when the jacket flapped last year. He's been out there, but just not as much as might be. And, unlike some riders (I'm thinking Bouhanni), Peter actually seems to care whether people like him or not, and the peloton, by and large, do like him.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: M Gee on April 13, 2018, 17:06
  . . . Burghardt  . . . Sagan timed it to perfection.

I'm downloading recordings now to go back and take a look.

I had a brief moment to review. When Sagan went, it was more like he just rolled off the front. Somebody from BMC was actually on the front as Sagan went. Burghardt was a few slots back - maybe 3, maybe 5, I didn't look close enough. But BMC just let him roll! Musta been tired.
Title: Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
Post by: Capt_Cavman on April 14, 2018, 13:22
I think the defining factor for this race was that it was Quickstep vs everybody else. At the point at which Sagan eased off the front, the only match Quickstep had to burn was Terpstra himself. And even during the chase, the fact that unless Terpstra was on the front, the chasers were going no faster than Dillier suggests that there was no desire to chase down Sagan and let Terpstra in.

QST tried to boss the race as they did so successfully this Spring but this time got caught with too many chiefs and not enough indians.