Velorooms - Cycling Forum

Professional Cycling => Men's Road Cycling => Topic started by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 09:45

Title: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 09:45
http://www.uci.org/inside-uci/press-releases/the-uci-management-committee-and-the-professional-cycling-council-unanimously-approve-the-new-organisation-of-men's-professional-road-cycling

Quote
From 2019, the only ranking to be calculated at international level will be the UCI World Ranking. (The team version will take) into account the results of the 10 best riders of each team in all three divisions across all races on the UCI Road International Calendar.

The two best UCI ProTeams will have the right to participate in the Grand Tours. Similarly, the three best UCI ProTeams will have the right to participate in events in the UCI Classics Series and in other events of the UCI WorldTour.

We can use this thread to keep an eye on the battle through 2019 and some ante-post analysis of the likely runners and riders.

Of course it could be a damp squib with two teams running away with it, but on the other hand it may come down to a mad scramble for points at random races in September and October.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 09:55
The Contenders?

 #cofidis
 #direct
 #wanty

 #androni
 #academy
 #fortuneo
 #vital

 #roompot
 #wallonie

I've split them up a bit to indicate my rough feeling of the odds of their chances, but is there anyone else to add to the list?
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on November 19, 2018, 10:02
that should be it, I guess. The exact rules are not available yet, are they?
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 10:24
No rules available as of yet and the UCI does say "some important details still need to be finalised".

The two things I'd want to know are:

#1 The blurb above does say "across all races" in reference to the team ranking, but I'd want extra confirmation about whether WT races (and their magnified points) will count or not towards this wildcard competition.

#2 There's no mention of a date in regard to when the auto-wildcards will be handed out. We can assume it would be at the end of the cycling year (October) and that would make sense in giving the successful teams enough time to strengthen for the following year, but you could also make a case for it being three months or so before the race and that would give different teams a chance of picking up the wildcards as fortunes ebb and flow over the course of the year.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 10:27
https://twitter.com/zikloland/status/1063719002395025408
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 19, 2018, 14:40
#direct Direct Energie

Made the biggest individual transfer splash with the signing of Terpstra. How important could he be? Well this year he scored 1803 (obviously this includes points scored in WT races) and the next highest riders who will be part of this competition are the grouping of Hofstetter, Laporte, Dupont and Pasqualon who are all around the 1000pt mark, but a lot of the other "big" riders are more down towards the 500-700 range.

So you can see he could be worth 2 or 3 times more than his rivals.

That's assuming of course that he can repeat his annus mirabilis or at least get somewhere near it. It's unlikely to be honest. He will have some decent support on the cobbles, but will be a marked man now.

The other big signings, as regards this competition, are more on the business side of things. Total (bigger and richer) bought Direct Energie earlier in the year and Wilier are now 100% with the team having given up sponsorship of their eponymous Italian team. No doubt this is where the moolah for Terpstra and co came from.

Upping the Italian links would also mean an increased desire to accept the Giro (+ MSR, TA and Lombardia) wildcards if they were earned.

Top (ten?) riders:

Terpstra
Calmejane
Boudat (if he re-signs)
Gaudin
Taaramae
Turgis
Ligthart
Hivert
Bonifazio
Petit

Like some other teams it's very much a focus on sprints and one day races. There's not much climbing ability beyond Calmejane and Taaramae.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 23, 2018, 09:10
#androni

After a bit of thought I had been planning to reclassify Androni down into the third rank of teams, but today's signing of Pelucchi means I probably won't.

My initial reasoning for them being in the second grouping was their performance this year. They came third in the European Tour ranking (not so far behind Cofidis). They racked up 35 (!) wins over the course of the year, which is more than Wanty and Cofidis combined. Now a lot of those wins were in Venezuela and China, but Sosa and Ballerini in particular picked up some big European wins.

So why think of moving them down a rank? Well Sosa and Ballerini have now left and won't be easily replaced. They haven't got the strength in depth or race as many days as their big rivals. Are they even interested in winning the competition and riding the Tour or the host of other non-Italian WT races?

We don't know if the Coppa Italia wildcard will still be in place come 2020, but they must be a shoe-in for it again if it does and would RCS not invite their best (by a mile) PCT team if they didn't achieve automatic qualification?

Anyway they're off to a good start to the competition with Masnada's win in Hainan.

Top (ten?) riders:

Pelucchi
Belletti
Busato
Cattaneo
Gavazzi
Masnada
Torres
Vendrame

Can only get to 8.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on November 23, 2018, 10:28
Are they even interested in winning the competition and riding the Tour or the host of other non-Italian WT races?
If they do win, they are auto-invited ... but can still decline the invitation, effectively getting a better deal than the WT teams themselves.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 24, 2018, 11:57
#wallonie

This is another team who's probably not too interested in the competition. They got wildcards this year to all the big races they wanted. Similarly to Androni, if they did qualify they might just add the TdF to their country specific WT events and just fill the gaps in the calendar that they have with races that suit their characteristics - Strade Bianche for example.

Let's be honest as well, their chances will be very, very slim even if they do try. Their squad is small and it would need a couple of their riders to have Baptiste Planckaert-esque years to stand any chance at all.

Top (ten?) riders:

Dehaes
Jules
Liepins
Lietaer
Nommela
Planckaert
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 24, 2018, 11:58
If anybody else wants to do a team, feel free. :P
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on November 24, 2018, 14:48
I’ll be interested to see how Nomella does, looks decent on results given he was only semi pro last year.

Also with Dayer Q at Wilier, could be interesting, he’s shown he can climb when given a chance. I wonder how the rest of their team will look, pretty unknown at the moment.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 24, 2018, 17:30
No news is bad news for Wilier. Lack of sponsorship/financial woes will be at the root of it. Quintana might be willing to ride for minimum wage, but I can't see Visconti being so obliging (nor should he be).

Missing out on Pelucchi (the lateness of his Androni transfer does lead me to think he might have been waiting on Wilier beforehand) means no direct replacement of Mareczko with someone of a similar level.

Could be a long year and I don't think they'll be featuring in this thread too much.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 30, 2018, 09:43
#fortuneo

Along with Terpstra to Direct Energie, the other big transfer in the PCT market was Greipel to Fortuneo (or Arkea as they will be). It remains to be seen however if it's just a big transfer in terms of cachet or whether he'll be able to bring in big results/points. In my opinion he'll bring in the points, but the wins in the bigger races will be hard to come by.

The enigma known as Barguil is the other star in the team. Showed a bit of return to form towards the end of this season, but 2017 seems a long time ago. There were rumours of him wanting out earlier on in the year.

It's slim pickings after that tbh. Welten looks a prospect and they have a couple of other guys who can pick up points in SSFRs. I would say it's unlikely they'll be vying for the auto-wildcards.

Top (ten?) riders:

Greipel
Barguil
Pichon
Hardy
Welten
Delaplace
Bouet
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on November 30, 2018, 10:08
The Contenders?

 #cofidis
 #direct
 #wanty

 #androni
 #academy
 #fortuneo
 #vital

 #roompot
 #wallonie

One thing I had forgotten about is that both Cofidis and Direct Energie have expressed the desire to go WT in 2020. That's no simple matter of course and there is no clearly stated method of achieving this other than the wishy-washy one of teams already in WT failing tests on sporting/financial/ethical criteria.

It could happen though. I saw a stat somewhere a while back about this year's performance by Dimension Data being almost the worst ever by a WT team (or the earlier equivalent). If Valgren gets injured and that is repeated then even ASO might find it difficult to defend their inclusion (with a straight face).

Something similar might happen to CCC if GVA has an off year. Katusha look weak as well.

So yeah, the contenders could be different to the ones listed above, but we'll stick with them for the time being.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on November 30, 2018, 14:48
One thing I had forgotten about is that both Cofidis and Direct Energie have expressed the desire to go WT in 2020. That's no simple matter of course and there is no clearly stated method of achieving this other than the wishy-washy one of teams already in WT failing tests on sporting/financial/ethical criteria.

It could happen though. I saw a stat somewhere a while back about this year's performance by Dimension Data being almost the worst ever by a WT team (or the earlier equivalent). If Valgren gets injured and that is repeated then even ASO might find it difficult to defend their inclusion (with a straight face).

Something similar might happen to CCC if GVA has an off year. Katusha look weak as well.

So yeah, the contenders could be different to the ones listed above, but we'll stick with them for the time being.

If Uran or Rusty Woods gets injured then EF are reliant on Lady Garden and Vanmarcke.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on December 14, 2018, 10:15
#roompot

In the same boat as WB with a small squad and almost guaranteed invites to the WT events that they want due to their now dual nationality. Their squad make-ups are virtually identical as well, but Roompot probably just have the edge.

Boom is their biggest name in terms of previous results, but I'm not sure he can return to those levels consistently. Weening is still good for a result here and there, but not massive points. The biggest scorer could be Van Schip.

Top (ten?) riders:

Boom
De Bie
Duyn
Lammertink
Van Schip
Weening
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on December 16, 2018, 12:04
#vital

Vital's 2018 squad was ahead of the curve in that it was filled with sprinters, Northern classic-type riders and not many climbers. The fact that it didn't produce the results that were sought hasn't stopped others going down the same route...

Incoming transfers of Vichot, Rolland and The Gaut should give them a lot more scoring potential in the hillier one-day events and some of the bigger stage races, but tbh the main reason they've been hired is not so much to do with this 2020 stuff, it's all about getting ahead of Wanty in the race for a wildcard in 2019.

I think they may get the nod for 2019, but the automatic ones the year after look to be a bit beyond them unless the underperforming riders from 2018 really (and I mean really) step it up.

Top (ten?) riders:

Coquard
Gautier
Lecroq
Manzin
Pacher
Rolland
Van Genechten
Vichot
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on December 16, 2018, 12:23
if he still gets the freedom he needs, I think Pacher could have a really strong year
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on December 16, 2018, 12:48
if he still gets the freedom he needs, I think Pacher could have a really strong year

He is/was on my radar for the "Close But No Cigar" pick in the Collective CQ, but with our very tight budget he's probably a bit too expensive now.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on December 16, 2018, 13:22
He is/was on my radar for the "Close But No Cigar" pick in the Collective CQ, but with our very tight budget he's probably a bit too expensive now.

As luck would have it I picked Pacher and Van Schip in my auction game last month, for relative peanuts.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on December 18, 2018, 06:03
#androni

Are they even interested in winning the competition?

This isn't proof one way or another, but I have noticed their name on the list of invited teams to Provence and Finistere next year. Races that they didn't go to last year.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 14, 2019, 09:27
Of course it could be a damp squib with two teams running away with it, but on the other hand it may come down to a mad scramble for points at random races in September and October.

or even earlier ;). Just stumbled across this in an interview with #academy August Jensen on procycling.no (https://www.procycling.no/kynisk-jensen-gripe-sjansene/):

"The original plan [for 2019] was actually to reduce the amount of riders a bit. But then the UCI came up with the new rules about distributing the wildcards for the Grand Tours 2020 to the two best procontinental teams in the rankings. With more riders we will run a larger program and more or less ride whereever it's easier to pick points. There are good riders we have signed, so there will be a battle for the seats and a battle to get the chance to run for a result."

The HC races seem to be giving quite a good payback, so I guess we could see them very active in the Napoleon Cup, and generelly in that part of the world. Ronde van Drenthe, Nokere Koerse, Koksijde Classic, Scheldeprijs, Dunkerque, Tour of Belgium, Luxembourg for example are all HC, and generally more or less sprinter friendly. De Panne is even WT now.

And they probably also will consider to go to Langkawi and Qinghai Lake this year.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 14, 2019, 09:40
And they probably also will consider to go to Langkawi and Qinghai Lake this year.

....or Rwanda. :P

https://twitter.com/Tour_du_Rwanda/status/1084717228577177601
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 14, 2019, 10:00
#2 There's no mention of a date in regard to when the auto-wildcards will be handed out. We can assume it would be at the end of the cycling year (October) and that would make sense in giving the successful teams enough time to strengthen for the following year, but you could also make a case for it being three months or so before the race and that would give different teams a chance of picking up the wildcards as fortunes ebb and flow over the course of the year.

this has (more or less) been clarified meanwhile:

Quote
Qualifying ranking for men’s UCI teams

The qualifying ranking for men’s UCI teams shall be drawn up at least once a week. The final ranking is calculated on the last day of the season as per article 2.1.001. The ranking for each season will begin at zero. Men’s teams registered with the UCI are classified in the ranking with the exception of UCI WorldTeams. The ranking is calculated by adding the points of the 10 best riders of each team taking into account the points scored by riders between the first day of the current season until the date of publication of the ranking.

https://www.uci.org/docs/default-source/rules-and-regulations-right-column/part-ii-road-races-amendments-to-regulations-as-from-01-01-2019.pdf?sfvrsn=49ad32ed_18

with 2.1.001 saying

Quote
As  a  general  rule,  the  international  calendar  shall  start  on  the  day  following  the conclusion of the previous year’s final UCI World Championships event or WorldTour event  and  end  upon  conclusion  of  the  final  UCI WorldTour or World Championships event of the year in question.

So this should be calculated after Guangxi.

But when does it start? Does this mean, Hainan and so on from 2018 will count?!
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 14, 2019, 10:24
But when does it start? Does this mean, Hainan and so on from 2018 will count?!

It must be from Hainan onwards.

Unfortunately the UCI are a bit tardy in getting the team rankings up. I just hope they, or PCS or somebody, will have a separate table showing just the 2019 scores rather than the rolling version they have had for the past few years.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 14, 2019, 10:26
It must be from Hainan onwards.

I think so too. This would give Androni a bit of a head start
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 14, 2019, 11:19
#cofidis

Cofidis have the second biggest squad and are always there or thereabouts in the yearly rankings. They already ride virtually all the races they want to and even if they missed out on the top-two here, they could still end up getting two GT wildcards a year due to their continuing sponsorship of the Tour and Vuelta.

I think they will finish in the top-two though. Very strong in the sprinting dept with three big hitters and with enough strength in depth from back up quicks to not be so affected by injuries etc. A couple of climbers came on board this year with Atapuma and Hansen and they're a bit of an improvement on Navarro and Godon.

Top (ten?) riders:

Atapuma
Bouhanni
Claeys
Edet
Hansen
Herrada
Hofstetter
Laporte
Simon
Touze
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on January 14, 2019, 11:43
But when does it start? Does this mean, Hainan and so on from 2018 will count?!
Yes, those November/December 2018 races will count - it starts from after the last WT race of 2018, 52 weeks.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 14, 2019, 11:49
I think they will finish in the top-two though. Very strong in the sprinting dept with three big hitters and with enough strength in depth from back up quicks to not be so affected by injuries etc.

yeah, I think they are the favorite.

Generally, this new rule could make things very difficult for the French pro conti teams though. The wildcards for the stage races in France are probably those which are the least likely to be handed back to the organizers, no matter who makes the top 2/3 in the end.

So that could leave those 4 other French PCT teams with only 1-2 wild cards to be in contention for in each the Tour, Paris-Nice and Dauphiné 2020.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 14, 2019, 12:13
Generally, this new rule could make things very difficult for the French pro conti teams though. The wildcards for the stage races in France are probably those which are the least likely to be handed back to the organizers, no matter who makes the top 2/3 in the end.

So that could leave those 4 other French PCT teams with only 1-2 wild cards to be in contention for in each the Tour, Paris-Nice and Dauphiné 2020.

PN and the Dauphine could of course increase the number of wildcards they hand out. Catalunya was the only (real) WT stage race this year to use up all seven potential wildcards. Most seemed happy with just four and you had races like Romandie and the TDU just inviting one.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on January 14, 2019, 14:33
You are of course forgetting the fact that CCC should get relegated at the end of the year unless GvA has an absolutely tremendous season and Marezcko comes good at WT level. They have literally no one else.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 14, 2019, 15:05
I think that part of the 2020 reform was scrapped, wasn't it?!

Edit: yep, can't see anything that speaks against them getting a WT license again

Quote
Eighteen teams will possess a UCI WorldTeam licence awarded for a period of three years after a full evaluation of all the candidate teams (and not only the teams already in possession of a licence) according to ethical, administrative, financial and organisational criteria. The teams will need to fulfil these criteria every year. The sporting criterion will be evaluated at the end of a three-year period. The UCI WorldTeams will comprise 27 to 30 professional riders.

https://www.uci.org/inside-uci/press-releases/men%27s-professional-road-cycling-changes-for-2020
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 25, 2019, 14:36
There won't be promotion and relegation once those 3 year licences have been handed out, but it's not a fait accompli that they or any other of the current WT teams will get those licences. Cofidis and Direct Energie have both talked about applying for 2020, so two teams from the twenty applicants will miss out.

#wanty

I used to think of Wanty as a bit of a joke team, probably very unfairly. Cisse de Greef might have had something to do with that. It's patently not the case any more. Winning the European Tour team classement for the past three years means they have to be taken very seriously.

A smaller squad than their other main rivals, but with nearly as many potential big scorers. The main strengths lie in of course northern classics, punchy finishes and sprints. Martin is an option in tougher climbing races, but his lack of a kick means wins are going to be in short supply for him.

A couple of negatives. Their transfer dealings over the winter probably weakened them in the short term (ie this year) as Smith + GVK > Vliegen + De Gendt and my gut feeling is that with them already punching above their weight, the chances of them being able to raise the bar much higher are slim.

Top (ten?) riders:

Backaert
Baugnies
De Gendt
Dupont
Eiking
Martin
Meurisse
Pasqualon
Vliegen
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on January 27, 2019, 15:33
Ante-post ramblings done!

My thoughts haven't changed much since I gave my initial rankings. I think it will be Cofidis and either Wanty or Direct Energie. Between those two a lot will depend on how Terpstra gets on. He won't repeat his 2018 performances, but if he can get 1000+ points that could be enough to edge DE ahead.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on January 27, 2019, 15:40
Ante-post ramblings done!

My thoughts haven't changed much since I gave my initial rankings. I think it will be Cofidis and either Wanty or Direct Energie. Between those two a lot will depend on how Terpstra gets on. He won't repeat his 2018 performances, but if he can get 1000+ points that could be enough to edge DE ahead.

It has to be Cofidis for me.

Bouhanni, Laporte, Touze and Hofstetter for the sprints.

Hansen, Atapuma and Herrada for the mountains.


Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 27, 2019, 15:51
#androni Gianni Savio agrees with you:

"I can tell you right now what the classification will be for the Pro Continental teams in 2019: first will be Cofidis, second will probably be Direct Energie, and then in third it could be Wanty, us or many other teams," Savio said. "We have a budget of €2.5 million. How can we compete with Cofidis who have €8 million at their disposal?

To my mind, the original draft for the WorldTour reforms was better, because if you remember, the plan was that there were only going to be 15 WorldTour teams. That was fair – and not only to help the Pro Continental teams, but because I don't think there are 18 big teams out there in the first place. By big teams, I mean teams with riders who can challenge on GC in a Grand Tour."


http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/a-balancing-act-analysing-the-giro-ditalia-wildcards/
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on January 27, 2019, 16:05
#androni Gianni Savio agrees with you:

"I can tell you right now what the classification will be for the Pro Continental teams in 2019: first will be Cofidis, second will probably be Direct Energie, and then in third it could be Wanty, us or many other teams," Savio said. "We have a budget of €2.5 million. How can we compete with Cofidis who have €8 million at their disposal?

To my mind, the original draft for the WorldTour reforms was better, because if you remember, the plan was that there were only going to be 15 WorldTour teams. That was fair – and not only to help the Pro Continental teams, but because I don't think there are 18 big teams out there in the first place. By big teams, I mean teams with riders who can challenge on GC in a Grand Tour."


http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/a-balancing-act-analysing-the-giro-ditalia-wildcards/

Clearly he knows his onions.

:)
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on January 28, 2019, 22:03
or even earlier ;). Just stumbled across this in an interview with #academy August Jensen on procycling.no (https://www.procycling.no/kynisk-jensen-gripe-sjansene/):

[...]

And they probably also will consider to go to Langkawi and Qinghai Lake this year.

or not

Malaysia to not host any more events involving Israel (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/malaysia-host-events-involving-israel-190116055645035.html)
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on February 08, 2019, 19:12
https://twitter.com/EyalFidel/status/1093916529152983041

I'm not convinced this is 100% correct (where are Direct Energie?), but it's a rough idea of how the land lies at this early stage.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on February 09, 2019, 09:01
https://twitter.com/EyalFidel/status/1093916529152983041

I'm not convinced this is 100% correct (where are Direct Energie?), but it's a rough idea of how the land lies at this early stage.
This is only on points from 2019, I believe.

Also, the WT-PCT promotion/relegation at least has been postponed until 2023:
https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/ (https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/)
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on February 10, 2019, 08:22
Also, the WT-PCT promotion/relegation at least has been postponed until 2023:
https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/ (https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/)
Picking something from that article to comment on:
It says there could be 19 or even 20 WorldTour teams if a ProConti team (or two) that's placed in the top-18 decides to apply while the existing WorldTour teams' three-year licences are still running (e.g. after one year).

What if the same happens the year after that?! There are 20 WT teams already - what if another two PCTs make the top-18 in the second year and also apply for a WT licence? The original 18 WT teams still have one year left on their licence, and the two new teams may also have finished in the top-18, so you can't take theirs away. Will there then be 22 WT teams?!
:slow

This all sounds not terribly well thought out. :S
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on February 14, 2019, 07:44
If it weren't before, it's official now: #academy are going for the auto-wildcards

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773 (https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773)

"We are permanently on the road with three teams to get enough points for that top 2 spot in the ranking that enables us to ride all 3 GTs in 2020."
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Joelsim on February 14, 2019, 11:04
If it weren't before, it's official now: #academy are going for the auto-wildcards

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773 (https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773)

"We are permanently on the road with three teams to get enough points for that top 2 spot in the ranking that enables us to ride all 3 GTs in 2020."

Makes sense. And with that more money will come in and more points for the following year.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on February 14, 2019, 13:26
Makes sense. And with that more money will come in and more points for the following year.
More money, certainly. And let's not forget that they'd get auto-invited to all other WT races, too, not just the GTs.

More points? I'm not so sure about that. It's not out of the question, but history has shown that domination of Continental races doesn't necessarily translate to taking the same number of points at a higher level.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on April 02, 2019, 17:19
So naturally there still isn't an easy way to see how the teams are doing in this competition. The UCI have their World Ranking for teams, but it's on a rolling basis and at this time of the year it's relevance is limited.

Here it is anyway:

(http://i68.tinypic.com/9zyc74.png)

One thing we can do however is to compare these points with what they were at the beginning on January. This should show how well the riders and teams are defending or bettering their results.

Current Rank Team January Score April Score Change
1 Wanty 4516 4996 +480
2 Cofidis 5263 4797 -466
3 Direct Energie 5155 4173 -982
4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3311 -15
5 Vital Concept 2768 2854 +86
6 Roompot-Charles 2814 2803 -11
7 Corendon-Circus 2745 2751 +6
8 Androni Giocattoli 2753 2725 -28

Direct Energie the big losers at the moment. That's not the fault of Terpstra particularly, though that could change as he has very big points to defend these upcoming two weekends. The point loss is spread about, but Hivert sticks out. He had a great start to 2018, but couldn't replicate it this year.

Things are looking good for Wanty. Martin is responsible for a lot of those point gains.

Strange that Androni are 28 points down. I thought they'd had a good start to the season.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on May 06, 2019, 14:47
An update for the beginning of May. There's still no official confirmation that this is happening of course.

Current Rank Team January Score April Score May Score Change
1 Cofidis 5263 4797 5003 +206
2 Wanty 4516 4996 4721 -275
3 Total 5155 4173 4195 +22
4 Corendon-Circus 2745 2751 3979 +1228
5 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3311 3852 +541
6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 2725 3398 +673
7 Vital Concept 2768 2854 3372 +518
8 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 2569 3245 +676

Wanty starting to struggle a bit now. Martin gave them a great start to the season, but the classics have been a bit of a letdown for them. They have lots of points to defend towards the end of season.

I was sure Total were going to lose a huge amount after Terpstra crashed out of RVV, but they've managed to turn a small profit on the month. There was a great 2nd for Turgis at DDV and then various bits and bobs from smaller .1 races.

Massive gains for the teams further down. Having MVDP helped one team and the others had some good results combined with not having many points to defend from the corresponding races last year.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on June 03, 2019, 10:06
One month later and we can't be far off halfway through the season.

Current Rank Team January Score May Score June Score Change
1 Cofidis 5263 5003 4596 -407
2 Total 5155 4195 4354 +159
3 Wanty 4516 4721 4336 -385
4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3852 3895 +43
5 Corendon-Circus 2745 3979 3720 -259
6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3398 3623 +225
8 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3245 3351 +106
7 Vital Concept 2768 3372 3281 -91

The consensus at the moment seems to be that with the promotion of Cofidis to WT (top of cumulative 3 year table) and the UCI fudge of Dimension Data being relegated, but still guaranteed all WT invites will mean that number of auto-wildcards will be reduced by one ie. just the one for Grand Tours and two for everything else.

Taking into account all the points that Wanty have to defend later in the year, things look good for Total to grab the sole Golden Ticket. That second spot is very much up in the air though.

Corendon could score nothing the next couple of months, but what odds MVDP comes back and wins BinckBank, the Worlds and a couple of other small races to grab second from under the noses of the bigger teams?
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on July 01, 2019, 14:14
The rumour mill has both Cofidis and Total becoming WT next year. If true that would mean this competition would become solely about the next best finisher after excluding those two, and the wildcard invite to everything except the GTs. However since I'm not sure how Total are achieving their promotion, that part of the rumour may remain unsubstantiated.

Current Rank Team January Score June Score July Score Change
1 Cofidis 5263 4596 5040 +444
2 Wanty 4516 4336 4596 +260
3 Total 5155 4354 4556 +202
4 Corendon-Circus 2745 3720 3924 +204
5 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3895 3815 -80
6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3623 3656 +33
7 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3351 3543 +192

Herrada with big gains for Cofidis. Most of the other teams can be pleased with their month's effort as well. Pasqualon is finally showing some signs of life for Wanty. De Bondt and Merlier picking up some impressive points in MVDP's absence.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on August 03, 2019, 11:18
Just two months and a bit left for the competition.

Current Rank Team January Score July Score August Score Change
1 Cofidis 5263 5040 5119 +79
2 Wanty 4516 4596 4700 +104
3 Total 5155 4556 4613 +57
4 Corendon-Circus 2745 3924 3924 0
5 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3656 3879 +223
6 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3815 3802 -13
7 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3543 3413 -130

Munoz and Rivera providing a large boost to Androni. Vliegen's win in Wallonie came just a bit too late to feature in this month's update, but those points could be vital as they are the team in the top-three with the most points to defend in the run-in.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on August 03, 2019, 16:14
I can't remember now where I read it, but some publication was making the point that essentially the race to qualify for the big events rewards the PC teams for omitting their best riders from those events.

The point being made was that getting a wild card for the Tour commits 8 riders to 21 race days, and in effect at least 5 weeks out of their schedule, during which they have precious little chance of getting any UCI points that will contribute towards them appearing in it next year.  The GP Cerami and tours of Austria and Wallonie are more likely to yield points to these teams than the grand boucle, so common sense would determine that that is where they shoudl send  their better riders.  It would certainly seem that Wanty's chances of making the 2020 Tour was strengthened by omitting  gained by leaving Vliegen and Dupont from their team for the 2019 edition.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on August 05, 2019, 09:00
I think Dupont might have had an injury/niggle and that's why he wasn't at the Tour, and tbh you can understand them wanting to have some of their better riders at Wallonie - it is their home race after all.

On the other hand Van Melsen was a strange selection for the Tour, but ASO declared afterwards that they were more than happy with Wanty and their showing as a wildcard team. Martin and Meurisse even picked up a decent haul of UCI points. The duo would probably confirm however that they were not easy ones.

The only team that has entertained this thought to my knowledge is ICA and that was solely for the Giro, where they didn't send Hermans (California was his intended destination, but he got injured) or TVA (easier points in Norway that didn't materialize).
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on September 04, 2019, 12:25
A month and a half-ish left for the competition.

Current Rank Team January Score August Score September Score Change
1 Total 5155 4613 4788 +175
2 Cofidis 5263 5119 4762 -357
3 Wanty 4516 4700 4576 -124
4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3802 3976 +174
5 Corendon-Circus 2745 3924 3903 -21
6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3879 3823 -56

Strange that there is such a drop in the score of Cofidis. I don't see a massive difference between their August results in 2018 and 2019.

Ignoring this competition for a bit and looking at the 3-year collective scores ones, things were looking a bit ropey for Cofidis in it a couple of weeks ago as Wanty were closing the gap, but Laporte's and Hofstetter's recent points have built up that cushion again.

If Wanty did finish ahead of them (in 18th), that would mean no WT for Cofidis, and as you can see the auto-GT wildcard spots are far from decided. Mind you their continuing sponsorship of the Vuelta would probably get them an auto-wildcard of a different sort if they did miss out for whatever reason.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on September 16, 2019, 08:28
A quick mid-month update.

(https://i.imgur.com/qIgHjNL.png)

Remember that these are the rolling points and include some results from the end of last year.

There is definitely a case to be made that Katusha, CCC and Dimension Data should all be relegated.

From the PCT teams, Total and Wanty have the most points to defend from last year, so the real gap between them and ICA/Corendon is much smaller. Remember if you win the Worlds you get 600 points. If MVDP wins that then other teams will really be scrabbling around for points. Could be an exciting finish to the season.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on September 24, 2019, 17:22
I might as well do an update per week now until the competition is over.

(https://i.imgur.com/78FIsHQ.png)

A UCI error has Corendon on over 6000 points, but it's actually only 4031. So even if MVDP wins on Sunday the team will still need other points from elsewhere in the remainder of the season to upset the apple cart.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on September 25, 2019, 16:37
A UCI error has Corendon on over 6000 points, but it's actually only 4031.
Not as if any of this is important or anything ... :fp :S :fp
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on September 26, 2019, 09:26
So we still to wait for official confirmation about the ICA/Katusha merger and about Cofidis doing enough in the aggregated 3-year scores, but it looks like the WT will consist of 19 teams next year.

What this should mean for the competition is that there is now only 1 auto-wildcard for all WT events next year and not two.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on September 29, 2019, 20:19
(https://i.imgur.com/V67RFkM.png)

It was looking so good for MVDP and Corendon, but it was not to be.

Even with De Bondt's points this week, their chances of winning this competition have now gone. Not that they'll mind one iota and their star rider is an auto-wildcard is his own way. Next year he's focusing on the Olympics, but if in 2021 he fancies riding the Tour, then I'm sure ASO will find a way to get his team there.

Assuming the ICA/Katusha merger goes ahead (should hear tomorrow or Tuesday) and Cofidis get promoted (mid-November for some reason), then that only leaves Total vs Wanty for the main prize.

Some important points today from Turgis to leave Total with a bit of a buffer, but they may need this as Wanty have 12 races left and the French team only have 9.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on October 07, 2019, 08:48
https://twitter.com/WielerFlits/status/1181093132840181760

Last week I was talking about how it was over for Corendon, but I didn't take into account more UCI cock-ups. Tim Merlier's points are missing from their overall tally!

(https://i.imgur.com/7pALCTc.png)

Add in his 607 points (and take away Rickaert's 29) and they're actually now on 4611. Factor in the good results that Wanty got at the end of last year and they're neck and neck. The Belgian team are still favourites as they have more opportunities (Taihu and Guangxi) than their opponent to score points, but a couple of Corendon wins in their remaining three races could be enough to grab second.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on October 14, 2019, 07:38
https://twitter.com/WielerFlits/status/1183425909778460672

Corendon put in a great performance yesterday and according to De Bondt, it was all about scoring as many points as possible. It's not going to be enough though.

(https://i.imgur.com/v4bxu9y.png)

The rolling scores have pretty much now caught up with the actual 2019 points and therefore it's a lot easier to see how things stand.

Since these points were calculated last night, they don't include any points from Taihu (stage or GC). Brandle and Raim picked up quite a few for ICA there and Vallee also grabbed a decent amount for Wanty. His points should be enough to see Wanty re-overtake Corendon.

Taking those points into account, Total should have a lead of ~180 over Wanty heading into the final two races. Both them and Wanty are racing Guangxi, but only Total (for the moment) are at Chrono des Nations. You could imagine Terpstra picking up some more points there.

Therefore to stand a chance of winning the competition, I think Wanty will need to podium Guangxi and maybe even have another top-ten in addition to that, to stand a chance of overhauling Total (and that's assuming the French team don't score many themselves).
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on October 14, 2019, 19:48
Needless to say I didn't realise that there is one more stage of Taihu to go. There could be some point shuffling if Raim or Vallee picked up some more bonifications.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: search on October 16, 2019, 16:10
Both them and Wanty are racing Guangxi, but only Total (for the moment) are at Chrono des Nations. You could imagine Terpstra picking up some more points there.

as it turns out, all three are sending guys to the Chrono des Nations:

https://twitter.com/ChronoNations/status/1184398447786561536

#direct Direct Energie (Terpstra & Turgis) looks still likely to score more points than #corendon Corendon (Vergaerde & Janssen) and #wanty Wanty (de Gendt & Meurisse) though, and with guys like #jumbo Roglic & van Emden, #ineos Ganna or #axeon Bjerg around, it's likely to be a battle for minor places anyway
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on October 17, 2019, 08:35
Last week I was talking about how it was over for Corendon, but I didn't take into account more UCI cock-ups. Tim Merlier's points are missing from their overall tally!
Oh FFS. :fp

My first thought was "they didn't count the points he scored before joining the team mid-season" - but he didn't score any points (on the road) in the #pauwels jersey at all.
Instead, another case of the people running the database working incredibly shoddily. It's a disgrace. :angry
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on October 20, 2019, 19:13
Eiking in 7th in the GC after today's queen stage in Guangxi. He could get up to 5th on cumulative placings (or with one bonus second), but that won't be enough as it stands. Martin was quite disappointing and is down in 18th. He has the KoM jersey, but as far as I'm aware you don't get any points for that.

They need a miracle.

:pray :pray :pray
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on October 21, 2019, 00:35
Martin was quite disappointing and is down in 18th. He has the KoM jersey, but as far as I'm aware you don't get any points for that.
You don't - only in GTs.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on October 25, 2019, 09:24
(https://i.imgur.com/eBi4n6D.png)

That miracle didn't happen for Wanty and they ended up 70 points short of Total. Assuming that all 19 teams announced yesterday pass the various tests for WT, then it's only the French team that get the Golden Ticket to all WT races. Contrary to what I thought before, Wanty will only get auto-invites to all of the WT one day races (I though it was all WT events except GTs).

Next year's competition (if it happens) may have lost Cofidis and IKA, but Corendon have made clear their intention in the past few weeks of this year, that they would like to get their hands on these auto-wildcards. Arkea obviously will be of a similar mindset. Will Quintana et al be enough to double their score?

(https://i.imgur.com/FHEDBOV.png)

This is the other new competition that is starting. Going by 2020 rosters, the worried WT teams should be IKA, NTT and Movistar(!). Other teams could easily get involved though with an injury to a pivotal rider or two.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: Leadbelly on December 21, 2019, 08:36
https://cyclingpro.net/spaziociclismo/continental/total-direct-energie-arriva-la-rinuncia-anche-al-giro-del-delfinato-confermata-la-presenza-al-giro-di-svizzera/

They won the Golden Ticket, but the list of snubbed races is growing.

The Tour de Suisse is being favoured over the Dauphine. :S

Quote
“We will have a very intense calendar, well marked for the team - commented the team manager - Coming out of a period in which the Classics will be the master, we have no way of sending riders to the Giro del Dauphinato. However, we can say that we will participate in the next Tour of Switzerland"

Hmmmm the classics finish a month before the start of the Dauphine.
Title: Re: The 2020 Auto-Wildcard Race (A Season Long Narrative™)
Post by: LukasCPH on December 21, 2019, 09:03
They won the Golden Ticket, but the list of snubbed races is growing.

The Tour de Suisse is being favoured over the Dauphine. :S
And this from a French team!

Almost feels like they didn't want the Golden Ticket and ended up getting it by mistake. :S