Post by: Leadbelly on August 19, 2019, 14:34
(https://i.imgur.com/YPnXXQw.png)
Quote from: Wikipedia
Until 1802, Torrevieja existed only as an ancient guard tower, which gave the town its name (Torre Vieja means Old Tower). But in 1803, Charles IV authorised the movement of the salt production offices from La Mata to the town itself and allowed the construction of dwellings there.
That's one of the two salt lagoons in the above picture. That picture also gives you an idea of how flat this TTT will be.
(https://img.aso.fr/core_app/img-cycling-vue-jpg/1/3152/0:0,1500:1336-960-0-70/1aa85)
(https://img.aso.fr/core_app/img-cycling-vue-jpg/1/3126/0:0,1500:846-960-0-70/77d7b)
It's an evening kick-off. First team out of the blocks around 7pm local time.
Post by: Leadbelly on August 19, 2019, 14:42
Quote
We can look at some of the more recent TTTs to give us an idea of how it might pan out.
A couple from 2018 first......
TDF Stage 3 (35.5km) Top-5 (BMC, Sky, Quick-Step, Mitchelton and Sunweb) all covered by 11 seconds. Bigger gaps after that.
Worlds TTT (62.8km) It was the usual suspects of Quick-Step, Sunweb and BMC at the top. Don't forget though there was a nasty old climb in the middle of the stage which we obviously won't have in Bruxelles.
......and now into 2019.
Colombia 2.1 Stage 1 (14km) EF won just ahead of Deceunick and INEOS. Bear in mind the time of season and team composition.
UAE Stage 1 (16km) Jumbo beat a strong Sunweb team. Bahrain in third.
Tirreno-Adriatico Stage 1 (21.5km) Mitchelton were 12th in UAE, but with a much better suited squad in Italy they did a whole lot better. Jumbo and Sunweb were again on the podium.
Coppi e Bartali Stage 1b (13.3km) Mitchelton won again, but not a lot to be learnt from this.
Hammer Stavanager TTT (48.9km) CCC and INEOS were close and then larger gaps, but the nature of the competition means times weren't the be and end all.
Hammer Limburg TTT (49.6km) Mitchelton repeated their trick from UAE-TA. 1m46 down on CCC in Norway, but a short while later beat the Polish team by 16s to take the win here.
Just one major result to add to that.
Tour de France Stage 2 (27.6km) Jumbo smashed everyone out of the ground. Winning by 20 seconds. Much closer between the teams after that.
Post by: t-72 on August 19, 2019, 18:50
Post by: search on August 19, 2019, 19:03
Post by: Leadbelly on August 19, 2019, 19:13
If I understood correctly, the vuelta version is #jumbo without the beetrain - that can't be as fast as the TdF setup, can it? (especially on a pancake flat course)
Van Aert + De Plus + Teunissen > Roglic + Powless
It will be a bit weaker for sure, but on a shorter course I don't think the difference will be too evident.
They're definitely still the big favourites for me, because as far as I can see all their main rivals are similarly weakened, if not much more so.
Post by: t-72 on August 19, 2019, 19:52
There are a few teams that bring more than a few well trained engines and what remains to be seen if the other wagons have any capabilities, and if the team coordination detail is there - or if it is lacking. TTT's can't really be calculated from individual riders. For example, putting Victor Campanaerts and/or Thomas de Gent on the Lotto squad is a bit of a lottery, as they may be capable of involuntarily dropping half the team by simply stepping on the pedals.
Lets take a look at the list of teams, and the usual suspects:
#ineos bring their B-squad and I guess DLC is their top guy? They have Stannard, Kiryenka, Doull, and they need 2 more for the finish line. De la Cruz and ... Puccio then?
#sunweb also bring a B-squad and they are now a bit headless, unless you think Kelderman is still a GC captain. However, this is a team that more often than not knows how to act like a team. I can not forget their double championship in 2017 easily.
#astana with Izaguirre2, LL Sanchez, Miguel Angel, Fraile and Fuglsang - possibly the strongest lineup here?
#movistar Erviti, Oliveira, Soler, Valverde, Carapaz, Quintana, and two that won't get far. Strong team anyway.
#jumbo Tony Martin, Primoz Roglic, Kruijwiswijk, Bennet, Hofstede + Gesink, Kuss and Powless hanging on for dear life?
I don't think the first #red rojo jersey will be handed out for free :cool
Post by: Leadbelly on August 20, 2019, 19:01
#jumbo
Still the big favourites for me.
:onfire1 :onfire1
#sunweb #ineos #ef
Tbh I don't have much confidence that these will do a whole lot better than the two below (if at all!), but I couldn't cop-out and just put them all on one star.
:onfire1
#deceuninck #astana
The Astana team bucks the trend somewhat in that their TTT team here isn't that inferior to the TDF one, but neither is it stronger imo.
:dizzy
#burgos
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 22, 2019, 00:56
Post by: search on August 22, 2019, 14:55
(https://i.imgur.com/oSAReo3.png)
Post by: search on August 23, 2019, 20:29
:dizzy
#burgos
Nicolas Edet said he'll "attack on from day one". Does that bring #cofidis Cofidis back in play for the fight with Burgos? :dizzy
Post by: Joelsim on August 23, 2019, 21:36
Nicolas Edet said he'll "attack on from day one". Does that bring #cofidis Cofidis back in play for the fight with Burgos? :dizzy
I’d be surprised if he goes off the front in the TTT.
Post by: search on August 23, 2019, 23:34
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 24, 2019, 01:18
So no drama from that standpoint.
Not sure if I'm happy about that or not. :-x
Post by: search on August 24, 2019, 06:46
Looks like it's going to be perfect weather for this.
So no drama from that standpoint.
the wind may have an influence though:
(https://i.imgur.com/1De9lOI.png)
So the forecast sent out by the Vuelta indicates (that's at least what I think it does...) that the wind intensity will drop quite severely over the ~hour of the race.
The 2nd part of the time trial is the one mostly exposed to wind, heading south down the coast, so with a stronger SE head-/crosswind there it could be a disadvantage for the early starters.
Post by: Leadbelly on August 24, 2019, 08:55
https://cyclingpro.net/spaziociclismo/vuelta-2019/vuelta-a-espana-2019-presentazione-percorso-e-favoriti-prima-tappa-salinas-de-torrevieja-torrevieja-cronosquadre/
***** Team Jumbo-Visma
**** Team INEOS, Deceuninck-Quick-Step
*** Movistar, EF Education First
**CCC Team, Team Sunweb, Astana
* Groupama-FDJ, Mitchelton-Scott, BORA-hansgrohe
https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/vuelta-2019-voorbeschouwing-ploegentijdrit-in-torrevieja/
**** Jumbo-Visma
*** Deceuninck-Quick-Step, EF Education First
** Team Ineos, Team Sunweb, Astana
* Movistar, Lotto Soudal, Mitchelton-Scott, BORA-hansgrohe
Post by: search on August 24, 2019, 09:08
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 24, 2019, 19:53
https://twitter.com/JumboVismaRoad/status/1165330298797735937
https://twitter.com/JumboVismaRoad/status/1165333544417320960
Post by: Leadbelly on August 24, 2019, 20:01
A highly localized rain shower[1] caused a stream of water to cross over the road just before it entered a tightening, narrowing, off camber corner.
https://twitter.com/Eurosport_UK/status/1165331332509118465
UAE went down too and Deceuninck certainly lost a little bit of time as they slowed down going through it. That and a last corner mishap probably cost the Belgian team victory.
Considering what happened though, Jumbo can't be too unhappy at only losing 40 seconds. It's a long way to Madrid.
| 1. | ;) |
Post by: search on August 24, 2019, 20:04
| RANK | TEAM | INT | INT -> FIN | FIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |  ASTANA PRO TEAM | 08:10 (01.) | <- 06:41 (04.) -> | 14:51 |
| 2. |  DECEUNINCK - QUICK - STEP | 08:19 (07.) | <- 06:34 (01.) -> | 14:53 |
| 3. |  TEAM SUNWEB | 08:16 (03.) | <- 06:40 (03.) -> | 14:56 |
| 4. |  EF EDUCATION FIRST | 08:20 (08.) | <- 06:38 (02.) -> | 14:58 |
| 5. |  BORA - HANSGROHE | 08:17 (05.) | <- 06:47 (09.) -> | 15:04 |
| 6. |  CCC TEAM | 08:23 (11.) | <- 06:43 (05.) -> | 15:06 |
| 7. |  MOVISTAR TEAM | 08:23 (12.) | <- 06:44 (06.) -> | 15:07 |
| 8. |  GROUPAMA - FDJ | 08:16 (02.) | <- 06:51 (11.) -> | 15:07 |
| 9. |  MITCHELTON - SCOTT | 08:22 (10.) | <- 06:47 (08.) -> | 15:09 |
| 10. |  LOTTO SOUDAL | 08:25 (14.) | <- 06:45 (07.) -> | 15:10 |
| 11. |  TEAM INEOS | 08:22 (09.) | <- 06:54 (15.) -> | 15:16 |
| 12. |  BAHRAIN - MERIDA | 08:24 (13.) | <- 06:53 (14.) -> | 15:17 |
| 13. |  TEAM KATUSHA ALPEC | 08:31 (17.) | <- 06:53 (13.) -> | 15:24 |
| 14. |  TEAM DIMENSION DATA | 08:28 (16.) | <- 06:57 (16.) -> | 15:25 |
| 15. |  TREK - SEGAFREDO | 08:35 (19.) | <- 06:51 (10.) -> | 15:26 |
| 16. |  CAJA RURAL - SEGUROS RGA | 08:35 (20.) | <- 06:53 (12.) -> | 15:28 |
| 17. |  AG2R LA MONDIALE | 08:26 (15.) | <- 07:02 (19.) -> | 15:28 |
| 18. |  TEAM JUMBO - VISMA | 08:17 (04.) | <- 07:14 (21.) -> | 15:31 |
| 19. |  COFIDIS SOLUTIONS CREDITS | 08:35 (18.) | <- 06:59 (18.) -> | 15:34 |
| 20. |  EUSKADI BASQUE COUNTRY - MURIAS | 08:39 (21.) | <- 06:58 (17.) -> | 15:37 |
| 21. |  UAE TEAM EMIRATES | 08:19 (06.) | <- 07:39 (22.) -> | 15:58 |
| 22. |  BURGOS BH | 09:02 (22.) | <- 07:11 (20.) -> | 16:13 |
the strong times in the 2nd part from the late starters Quickstep, Movistar and Lotto may indicate that the wind conditions improved a bit in the end, but it's really hard to say. Bora for example lost ground
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 24, 2019, 20:31
https://twitter.com/AndyElche/status/1165335927109103616
https://twitter.com/AndyElche/status/1165328887901016065
https://twitter.com/AndyElche/status/1165331269473001473
https://twitter.com/AndyElche/status/1165333986580807680
https://twitter.com/AndyElche/status/1165337340300222467
Post by: Joelsim on August 24, 2019, 21:57
Post by: Mellow Velo on August 24, 2019, 22:11
https://twitter.com/i/status/1165344116647051265
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ECworjmWwAEnoDm.jpg:large)
Post by: Joelsim on August 24, 2019, 22:41
Anyway, hoping to be in chat from Monday, probably Tuesday. Cat crazy this bank holiday, 50 of the hungry, furry little muckers per day.
Roll. On. September. About 35 consecutive 5:30am get ups. Absolutely shattered.
Post by: search on August 24, 2019, 22:58
It’s a blow to Rogla and Pogacar, Aru probably benefitted.
Aru crashed as well - and he was the only leader of the team to begin with. So in what way do you think he benefited from it?
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 25, 2019, 01:19
UAE's crash at the same spot was much worse.
That's horrific!
It's like a cartoon where someone has greased the road. :S
(http://www.solowattaggio.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/peter-sagan-in-versione-grease.jpg)
Post by: t-72 on August 25, 2019, 08:55
I think #jumbo Jumbo-Visma chasing #astana Astana will make for a more interesting GC. The field is a bit more level now. As for #uae Aru (and not to mention #uae Pogi) I think they may be let into the race again by the others watching each other. Something like Nibali watching Roglic all the way up the Col de Nivolet while Carapaz just slides away.
Post by: t-72 on August 25, 2019, 09:40
https://youtu.be/07e_uXhRRm4
I seem to remember lots of #jumbo guys crashing, and some discussions about their slippery tires unable to cope with water. (Crown Victoria or something like that...) However, in the video there’s only 1 #jumbo crash and there are no DNF’s or really large time gaps for their riders indicating they hit the ground hard. Did I dream this up or did it really happen?
Post by: t-72 on August 25, 2019, 09:53
TT tyres being blamed for a lot of the crashes.
The Jumbo trio were using them as was Nicholas Roche.
You would think that Jumbo would have cottoned on, if not after the first, but the second.
OK, there were some reports on twitter this morning which (if true...as yet they're a bit unconfirmed) paints a bleak picture of ASO's efforts when it comes to rider safety.
- A race motorcycle went down at the Valverde/Izaguirre +++ corner, spilling some fluid (oil or fuel) making it extra slippery. This was the cause of many of the accidents that happened there.
- Taylor Phinney narrowly missed hitting Ion Izaguirre lying injured on the ground.
I come from a skiing background and I see plenty of lame excuses for poor safety work in pro cycling. Yes, riders have to accept that there is a risk when riding on the edge that will never go away. However, with relatively simple means they could have had far less falls and less serious injuries yesterday. It's not like it was the first time it rains in Düsseldorf, so it is a bit exaggerated to blame everything that happened on the weather.
12 turns in a race (at least a race of this economical magnitude) can easily and at fairly low cost be safe-guarded better than what we saw yesterday. It's pretty much routine in ski-racing.
Yesterday, they could have:
- avoided inverted Y shape barriers on the outside far ends of all turns
- padded the barriers with something cushioning (RCS often use hayballs, which actually works quite well). Yesterday yellow crash pads were added on one turn that had a particularily narrow exit, but not where we saw all the crashes.
- prioritized which turns to provide extra safeguarding in by entry speed, not street width. It was the downhill off the bridge that provided the extra energy that made this catastrophe for Valverde and Izaguirre and provided narrow misses for many others.
- waved off approaching riders after falls when there is a victim on the ground. This is of course not ideal. They'll have to go back and start all over. It is not fair and equal competition for all anymore then. However, safety will be dramatically improved for the injured rider on the ground, the rescue crew (whoever that may be) and last but not least, the approaching rider. This is standard procedure after crashes in high speed motor sports, downhill skiing etc and why it is not done in cycling team trials? A cyclist at 70 km/h has the same damage potential as a skier at similar speeds (potentially lethal on a bad day). Traffic incident practice is alway secure the location before calling for help and starting first aid - this golden rule is not followed in cycling. :slow
Stopping the race and cleaning up the corner could have had a huge impact on the serious incident statistics, if it is true that spilled fluids from a race motorcycle was a factor in most of the accidents. Also, stopping the race for evacuation of Izaguirre would have avoided the near-miss incident of Phinney. In an ITT these are real options as it is different from the "show most go on" road race where one rider fallen seldom has consequences that can be dealt with in a timely fashion to reduce risk for the rest of the riders. In an ITT the race organizers have choices to make.
EDIT: Norwegian TV2 confirms Movistar are blaming a race motorcycle accident. (http://www.tv2.no/sport/9223262/)
Post by: t-72 on August 25, 2019, 09:54
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 25, 2019, 14:22
I seem to remember lots of #jumbo guys crashing, and some discussions about their slippery tires unable to cope with water. (Crown Victoria or something like that...):D
Not exactly. :P
(https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ibmig/cms/image/kcra/17575424-17575424.jpg?crop=1xw:0.99782608695652175xh;center,top&resize=900:*)
On a more serious note...
Excellent point about stopping the race.
For a TTT, this shouldn't have presented a major problem. It could've been managed.
Post by: search on August 25, 2019, 15:29
Excellent point about stopping the race.
For a TTT, this shouldn't have presented a major problem. It could've been managed.
I can't see how. With 4 minute start intervals and that patch of water coming ~9 minutes into the race, there's no way it would have been fair for everyone.
No matter at what time they would have stopped it, there had been at least two teams on the road, either having to cope with the wet roads or having to start the TTT again at less than 100% fitness
Post by: Drummer Boy on August 25, 2019, 15:39
I can't see how.
Maybe spray water at the final turn before the finish to even the playing field then? :D
(http://www.deblo.net/images/internal-template-image.jpg)
Post by: LukasCPH on August 25, 2019, 17:07
For a TTT, this shouldn't have presented a major problem. It could've been managed.I think the teams who were on course at the time of stoppage wouldn't exactly be excited to be set on 'pause' mid-effort ...
... but they would probably prefer that to crashing.
Post by: t-72 on August 25, 2019, 17:41
I think the teams who were on course at the time of stoppage wouldn't exactly be excited to be set on 'pause' mid-effort ...
... but they would probably prefer that to crashing.
My point exactly! If you want to prioritize safety, sometimes you have to sacrifice fair race for safe race.
In downhill ski racing, the skiers that are stopped due to problems with other sikres in front get to choose when to start again. Most have a completely pragmatic approach to it: this won´t happen to anyone very often (fortunately), and they are happy to stay safe rather than go «all in» to a potentially dangerous situation that may force them to slow down or change course, and thus lose time anyway.
Post by: search on August 25, 2019, 18:18
If you want to prioritize safety, sometimes you have to sacrifice fair race for safe race.
well, did you hear any of the Quickstep guys complaining about the wet patches or the Jumbo car in the middle of the road because they were "unsafe"?! No, they complaint because it cost them the win. That's what it's about, nothing else.