Velorooms - Cycling Forum

General => General Discussion => Topic started by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 00:09

Title: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 00:09
Now that the 2020 cycling season has been definitively impacted by what the World Health Organization has officially designated as a pandemic, it seems we should have a repository of info and updates beyond the shoutbox for this globally-troubling disease that is dominating the 24/7 news cycle.

It is, after all, a...


 :o  PANDEMIC! :o

(https://www.saccounty.net/COVID-19/PublishingImages/COVID-19.jpg)

(https://foreignpolicy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/coronavirus-outbreak-inset-label.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 01:03
How did we get here?

Background
CDC is responding to an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus that was first detected in China and which has now been detected in more than 100 locations internationally, including in the United States.

The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

On January 30, 2020, the International Health Regulations Emergency Committee of the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern" (PHEIC).

On March 11, 2020 WHO publicly characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic.

Source and Spread of the Virus
Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that are common in people and many different species of animals, including camels, cattle, cats, and bats. Rarely, animal coronaviruses can infect people and then spread between people such as with MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, and now with this new virus (named SARS-CoV-2).

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is a betacoronavirus, like MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV.  All three of these viruses have their origins in bats. The sequences from U.S. patients are similar to the one that China initially posted, suggesting a likely single, recent emergence of this virus from an animal reservoir.

Early on, many of the patients at the epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China had some link to a large seafood and live animal market, suggesting animal-to-person spread. Later, a growing number of patients reportedly did not have exposure to animal markets, indicating person-to-person spread. Person-to-person spread was subsequently reported outside Hubei and in countries outside China.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 01:11
Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases

Global Map

As of 12:00 p.m. ET March 11, 2020

(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/outbreak-coronavirus-world.png)

--------------------------

(https://www.who.int/images/default-source/infographics/logo-who.tmb-1200v.jpg?Culture=en&sfvrsn=2fcc68a0_15)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Situation Report – 51

Data as reported by national authorities by 10 AM CET 11 March 2020

SITUATION IN NUMBERS
Total and new cases in last 24 hours.

Globally
118,326 confirmed (4627 new)
4,292 deaths (280 new)

China
80,955 confirmed (31 new)
3,162 deaths (22 new)

Outside of China
37,371 confirmed (4596 new)
1,130 deaths (258 new)
113 countries/territories/areas (4 new)

WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
China - Very High
Regional Level - Very High
Global Level - Very High


https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_4 (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_4)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 01:18
Breaking news:

Wed, March 11, 2020
9:00 PM EST

President Donald J. Trump just announced a 30-day ban on travel from Europe to the U.S. beginning at midnight this Friday, March 13th.

The ban will not apply to the U.K.

Wow. Did not see this coming.

More news:
10:00 PM EST

The NBA has just suspended the remainder of the season.
At least one player has tested positive for the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on March 12, 2020, 07:47
"The ban will not apply to the U.K."

Not false news, but very selective news.  The ban only applies to the Schengen Area, and not to US citizens or those with permanent residence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 12, 2020, 08:13
"The ban will not apply to the U.K."

Not false news, but very selective news.  The ban only applies to the Schengen Area, and not to US citizens or those with permanent residence.

 The media are more intent in attracting attention to their respective outlets than reporting accurately.

Having said that, this move is bound to lead to airlines cancelling huge numbers of flights. They aren't going to run routes at a loss, solely for the benefit of US citizens.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on March 12, 2020, 08:19
Precisely: the media are more concerned with attracting the attention of their audiences than true honest presentation of facts, which is why half truths flourish.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 12, 2020, 09:47
yep

having said that - no matter what happens with the actual virus, the economic impact will be pretty severe.

- Travel and Tourism Industries hit very hard, all over
- Oil and Gas (much less jet fuel required)
- supply chains and freight/transport will be sorely tested
- hospitality in many countries with less people wanting to go out anywhere, and even if they want to, not having the money to do so
- sporting events and other social activities in cities all over the world being cancelled
- dividends and income from companies will be slashed ... so any retirees, super funds etc hit pretty hard
- EU could be interesting with Italy already financially struggling and set to be even more so with the whole country shut down

here in Australia the education sector is already very hard hit, with many 'full fee' paying students from China denied entry

It certainly is a challenging time ahead for many countries - and that is without taking into consideration the actual health of the people, or the ability of various health care systems to deal with the amount of sick people requiring hospitalisation.   
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 12, 2020, 09:53
no idea if all information in here are reliable, but I found it was quite an interesting read (despite the sensational headline)

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

Especially in regards to the expected ratio of the confirmed/real numbers of cases (likely to be 20-100 times as high). And personally I also wasn't aware of the fact that Wuhan went into full lockdown so early, with 440 confirmed positive cases "only" (in a city with 11 million inhabitants) - so I'm hoping for the best of course, but it's not exactly a good sign for what we can expect over here in Europe
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 11:03
This whole thing is an absolute disaster. Not only for the cycling world. Cat sitters like me will see income reduced to zero when the inevitable lockdown happens, already getting cancelled bookings left, right and centre. Quite how I’m going to pay my mortgage and bills is anyone’s guess.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 12:03
The ban only applies to the Schengen Area

Huh. That's the first time I've ever come across that term. I had to look it up.

My biggest concern right now is the run on medical and related supplies that's happening, which is sure to lead to more common items being cleared from shelves. I suppose this is really the first global crisis to hit since social media has really taken hold, and it's not a good thing.

Too much panic and too much hysteria, most of which is fueled by a highly irresponsible media. I can't watch any news outlets without being hit with a wave of uncertainty and nervousness. There's just no professional standard in play.

Last night's speech from Trump pretty much encapsulates all of that. Most networks are still focusing their energies on Trump's delivery, his tone, what he did or didn't say, and none of it really has anything to do with anything. Nobody is expecting Trump to come to the rescue, so I don't why the media keeps leaning on that. It's a global issue, the virus is spreading, and it was always going to spread, whether or not the U.S. even existed. Trump's presidency has created so much anxiety for the media over here that they are now unable to even function with any degree of competence themselves. If they worried less about Trump, and more about doing their jobs in a professional manner, we'd all be better off.

When a news anchor comes on the air, is it a pandemic that we're in the middle of, or a "PAN-DEM-IC!"? They just can't help themselves. And it's only making things worse. We live in such reactionary and hyperbolic times, and I'm not encouraged by any of this.

Perhaps this is just a dress-rehearsal of sorts for something even more dire. And maybe, just maybe, they'll get this hyperventilating out of their systems now, and proceed with a bit more sanity for the next major issue that we may encounter. I'm not optimistic, but there is a chance of that. There's just a level of immaturity permeating the press, and it serves nobody well. Added to all of that, of course, is that we're smack in the middle of our election season, so everything becomes more political and even more polarized than it otherwise might. So I only expect the reactions to get worse as this unfolds, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 12:10
It will get more and more panicked DB, as the number of cases rises. Even more so in a nation with a healthcare system like the US I suspect. This is merely the beginning.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 12:19
I think the only thing that will calm things down is when people, especially children, get the virus and then recover successfully. Once people realize that this isn't the Black Plague, some sense of normalcy may begin to return. But we're far from normal at the moment.

It will be interesting to see celebrity reaction as well. Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive in Australia (and it's getting a lot of press), so if they, and other high-profile individuals, come out of this OK, it will do much to reduce the panic and anxiety. But if some well-liked and high-profile celeb were to succumb to the effects of the virus, then that would only amplify people's fears further.

Only time will tell.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 12:26
I think the only thing that will calm things down is when people, especially children, get the virus and then recover successfully. Once people realize that this isn't the Black Plague, some sense of normalcy may begin to return. But we're far from normal at the moment.

It will be interesting to see celebrity reaction as well. Tom Hanks and his wife have tested positive in Australia (and it's getting a lot of press), so if they, and other high-profile individuals, come out of this OK, it will do much to reduce the panic and anxiety. But if some well-liked and high-profile celeb were to succumb to the effects of the virus, then that would only amplify people's fears further.

Only time will tell.

The issue isn’t most people’s health, it’s either passing it on to someone who is vulnerable, being off work and not earning money or businesses going tits up. Most people already know that they’re not really at risk from a health perspective, but their parents may be.

From the government’s perspective, it’s about the economy and how the healthcare system will cope.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 12, 2020, 13:24
It will get more and more panicked DB, as the number of cases rises. Even more so in a nation with a healthcare system like the US I suspect. This is merely the beginning.

 You will never make a journo, Joel. "as the number of cases soars" is the correct terminology.
I know this cos I just heard it used on the BBC to describe the 600 odd new cases in Spain. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 13:40
As the number of cases explodes, violently and exponentially.

Is that better?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 12, 2020, 13:53
As the number of cases explodes, violently and exponentially.

Is that better?

I like it.
As good as soars but with the metaphorical hint of an exploding nuclear bomb.
Pass it on to the BBC.

Anyhow, there goes the Classics season.

Nokere Koerse (18 march), Bredene Koksijde Classic (20 march),Driedaagse Brugge-De Panne (25 march), E3 BinckBank Classic (27 march) and Gent-Wevelgem (29 march) are all cancelled.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 14:12
Yep, cycling season is over as soon as P-N finishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 12, 2020, 15:10
Dutch races cancelled too until end of March: Drentse Acht, Ronde van Drenthe, and Olympia's Tour.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 12, 2020, 19:03
The latest on the Giro. Vengi suggests that an alternative date is possible, but doesn't suggest what those dates might be.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/coronavirus-vegni-suggests-an-alternative-date-for-giro-ditalia-is-possible/

He might want to consider ditching the Hungary stages and shortening the race, that be the case.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 12, 2020, 19:55
Nokere Koerse (18 march), Bredene Koksijde Classic (20 march),Driedaagse Brugge-De Panne (25 march), E3 BinckBank Classic (27 march) and Gent-Wevelgem (29 march) are all cancelled.

Has it really been decided? Most recent articles I read say it's still under discussion. Football matches will be held "behind closed doors".

Ghent-Wevelgem's organisers want to keep the race and close some areas from the audience like the Ypres Main square where the start is given, Mount Kemmel and the finish area. Hans De Clercq says he will respect the government's decision but he wants his race to be maintained.

https://www.lesoir.be/286447/article/2020-03-12/gand-wevelgem-les-organisateurs-veulent-laisser-la-course-se-derouler-sans
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 21:08
The latest on the Giro. Vengi suggests that an alternative date is possible, but doesn't suggest what those dates might be.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/coronavirus-vegni-suggests-an-alternative-date-for-giro-ditalia-is-possible/

He might want to consider ditching the Hungary stages and shortening the race, that be the case.

May 2021 is the date I expect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 12, 2020, 22:10
May 2021 is the date I expect.

By which time it will be an amateur event.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 23:06
*usa ******* CANCELLED ******** *usa

Everything is getting shut down here in the  U.S.A.

Most public schools are closing for a period of from two weeks to "indefinitely."

Colleges either closing or shifting to online classes only.
 
MLB baseball, NHL hockey, and NBA basketball all postponing or suspending their seasons.

NCAA "March Madness" college basketball tournament appears to be done.

Disney and other similar destinations closing for a month.

St. Patrick's Day parades in New Haven, Connecticut and Boston, Massachusetts are being cancelled. Those are both huge events with long and storied history. Joining that list will be most, if not all, other major and minor cities including New York, Chicago, Pittsburg, Denver and New Orleans.

Broadway is closing all theater shows for a month.

Public gatherings of more than 250 are being banned here in CT, in New York the limit is 500.

Most music festivals and the like are off, with the one, conspicuous exception being the Burning Man Festival, but that doesn't take place until the first week of September in the Black Rock desert of Nevada. So maybe they're just being optimistic. Last year's attendance was 70,000 people.

So that's an overview of the current state of things in Trumplandia.

*usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/2019-coronavirus.png) *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 12, 2020, 23:15
Are people trying to jump over the wall into Mexico?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 12, 2020, 23:18
Are people trying to jump over the wall into Mexico?

 :lol

(https://i0.wp.com/www.toonsmag.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Donald-Trumps-Mexico-wall.jpg?fit=595%2C442&ssl=1)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 13, 2020, 01:16
I was thinking a bit the same when I saw all these Milanese rushing to the station heading Southern Italy, just before the quarantine. Irony ! Perhaps, those Northerners will show less arrogance towards poorer Southerners ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pa7LeKlOfDY

And now that many Euro races are likely to be cancelled, could it be that some top teams enter some hot country second-tier races. Well perhaps, World Tour/World Series (whatever you call it) are not eligible for that. Just imagine Quick Step racing the Tour of Morocco (9 to 18 April).  :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 13, 2020, 01:21
This is bonkers.

I just went shopping and it was nuts. Two days ago, things were fine. Now? Shelves are emptying out and there's hardly anything left. Two things are primarily contributing to this, I think.

1) They're scaring the bejeezus out of everyone by warning them to be prepared with a 30-day-supply of goods in case someone in their family becomes infected with the virus because that will necessitate up to four weeks of home quarantine. Which is insane. This is not some airborne version of Ebola. In most areas, someone would still be able to get supplies to them if things became that dire.

2) With all the schools closing, kids will be home and families won't be going out much, if at all. So now they'll need more food and supplies at home. 

It's spinning out of control, though, and it just proves that were not capable of handling a much more serious crisis. Scientists have been warning about Super Bugs and possible pandemics for years, but little was in place to deal with such a scenario. As I've been saying, maybe this is a good dress rehearsal for a more serious crisis. It's hard to wrap one's head around the idea of so many events being cancelled, etc. until it actually happens. Now that we know that it can happen, and what it looks and feels like, it won't be such a shock to the system if it needs to happen again in the next ten to twenty years (much longer than that, and people forget. Plus, you'd have a new generation that wouldn't have any memory of previous events).

Not unlike 9/11 in some ways. Closing all the airports and halting all flights?! That seemed utterly inconceivable prior to that fateful day. But now? If had to happen again for some reason, it would take people about three minutes to wrap their heads around it—if that.

I'm just fortunate that winter has seemingly already come and gone where I am. No brutal winter storms here to compound the difficulties of all this. Other places are having nightmare scenarios though, like Nashille, TN that recently suffered the devastating effects of tornados. Others have had flooding and severe winter storms of their own. But me? We had the most gorgeous fall weather throughout September and October last year, followed by an extremely mild winter that has already yielded to a very early spring. It's just amazing the contrast between different parts of the country.


But let's see what tomorrow brings. Who knows at this point.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 13, 2020, 02:40
Here in Australia there has been toilet paper rations for about 10 days now.   There have been fist fights, brawls, tasers and security guards at supermarkets with people fighting over toilet paper, paper towel, tissues, and all kinds of disinfectant/cleaning supplies.

Hand sanitiser is kept behind the counter, with significantly limited supply.

All toilet paper, wipes, tissues etc are subject to a limit of 1 per customer.

Most supermarkets have also had a run on things like long life milk, flour, pasta, rice etc as well ... though it is still available at most shops.


With the news from Europe of closures everywhere and sporting events being cancelled, I am certain the panic will amp up further over the weekend/next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 13, 2020, 07:21
 This worldwide rush on toilet paper is due to the fact that the media scare mongering has got everyone shi*ting themselves. :D


Edit. Yesterday, all was normal, the event taking place with packed Floridian (old folks) crowds. Today, the Players Championship got cancelled after one round.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 13, 2020, 10:02
It makes perfect sense to me that Trump Inc USA state division shuts their borders to travellers from all European countries except UK and Ireland, as that is where Trump Inc Golf resorts have their business. As a sportsfan I appreciated the opportunity watch Champions league fotball on tuesday night, but it was obvious to the rest of us that the British authorities at the time must have been the ones in deepest denial about the problem in Western Europe at least. A football match with tightly packed stands all around the stadium, lots of shouting and cheering, tears and all that, is quite excellent for virus spredning. Enjoy!

Then there is the Paris - Nice .... The peloton and the team´s support are at considerable risk of infection as they can´t avoid spenning plenty of time in close proximity of others and they come from all over the world. The spectators are actually better placed. It is often possible to avoid tightly packed crowds at a cycling race and still get a gimpse of what´s going on, but the mingling zones at start/finish is different. I understand these are shut off for the P-N. Anyway, it could easily be the last race of the WT season, maybe with the  now-possibly-more-prestigeous-Lombardia at the other end.  :(


My personal perspective is I haven´t been at work for a week due to planned vacation. I am now at my family´s cabin up in the mountains, alone - so voluntarily semi-isolated. While on travel Norway basically shut down. Travel to abroad is only exceptionally allowed and inlands travel is also discouraged.   There were tendencies of panic-shopping in the cities yesterday but up here it was all quite at the store, it was kept a bit cleaner than usual, and single-use rubber gloves were provided for all at the entrance. 

Now I need to figure out if the current travel advice will keep me stranded here for a 14 days time  :angel
Current conditions> minus 5 degrees celsius and light snowfall with occasional sun bursts in between the clouds.
I think I will go skiing before checking if there is a P/N stage still rolling today.  :)

On a more serious note, except closer to health services - does anyone see any benefits of going back to the city in this situation? Density of host organisms (ie. people) remains a primary control on how fast any virus will spread, and although this isn´t the outback (it´s a norwegian ski area, quite different from anything in the Alps and Pyrenees, for one thing it doesn´t really depend on toursism as such as it´s mostly family owned and used cabins here, hardly a hotel room). .I haven´t seen many people since I came here so it kinda feels ok to just stay here. My employer has ordered us to stay away from the office and work from home anyway (and this was foreseen: they made us always bring a laptop home in the last 14 days).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 13, 2020, 10:15
This worldwide rush on toilet paper is...

Unprecedented!   :D

I can't ever in my life, through even the worst winter storms, remember there ever being a toilet paper panic. For that matter, I can't ever remember it even being mentioned as a "must have" product during a time of crisis. Why now all of a sudden? Was this global catastrophe thrust upon the world by Chinese TP manufacturers? WTF is going on?

Bread
Milk
Batteries
Bottled water

Those are the items usually high on the list of emergency supplies. I mean, it's not as if Coronavirus is known to have dysentery-like symptoms. It's just bizarre to me. Of course people need their TP, but when the media states the obvious, it sets off a world-wide shortage due to panic purchases.
 
What I'll also never understand is how, even in affluent communities, you'd think that nobody ever stocks anything under normal circumstances. Everyone can not suddenly be out every item they might ever need. Same thing goes for the annual winter storm shopping season. How many years must past before it occurs to people to purchase a few necessities ahead of time? Just like when people swarm to buy up snowblowers and shovels. Every friggin' year? Typically most of those things will last more than a few months, so what happened to last year's purchase?

People are dumb, just incredibly dumb. And the media makes the very most of that.  :S
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 13, 2020, 10:47
You know, it surprised me to see that capitalism hasn´t advanced further in 2020. As Information on purchases made can travel at the speed of light directly in to the clouds and around the world now, why do we get this «everyone to the stores and buy toilet paper now» side of it...
 
- and not the «the whole world is crazy about toilet paper, increase the prices 400%» side of it?

In theory that is a perfect market response to the situation, and it would actually make the owners of toilet paper more wealthy while making sure toilet paper is prioritized to only those that really need more toilet paper.

Now go compare with how stock market and trading shares work. Did toilet paper just show what learned about how markets should work fails in a crisis situation? Or was it the toilet paper traders that failed to see this opportunity for increased incomes?

 :shh
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 13, 2020, 11:03
Did toilet paper just show what learned about how markets should work fails in a crisis situation? Or was it the toilet paper traders that failed to see this opportunity for increased incomes?

1) I think this happened so quickly that all the product would've already been shipped, and outlets would've already paid their usual wholesale prices, so the manufacturers weren't in a position to up their profits.

2) Once the products were in stock, any retailer found to be price-gouging would've been held accountable by the authorities (if not burned to the ground by a mob).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 13, 2020, 11:14
2) Once the products were in stock, any retailer found to be price-gouging would've been held accountable by the authorities (if not burned to the ground by a mob).
After looting the toilet paper, I presume? Burning the toilet paper would be rather self-defeating. :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 13, 2020, 11:39
Mellow somehow was right. It seems that all sporting events are cancelled/postponed till end of March (including football matches, that at least is for sure).

Moreover, Belgium is now quarantined, almost as much as Italy. PM Sophie Wilmes decided to close schools, shops (but food shops), discotheques (good decision  :D), cafés and restaurants. 153 new infected cases yesterday (Thursday). More deaths are expected today, Friday.  :(

Edit: correction shops are only closed at weekends, which means the measure only apply for Saturday for the majority of them. Stupid idea! Either you close them or you don't.

I was surprised about closing restaurants. People need to eat. I'm working for an online food delivery company. Though restaurants are closed for patrons eating on the spot, home delivery is still tolerated. That means I expect my company to make good profit (people tend to order more when they stay home) but also that my colleagues at our call center are going to be hugely under pressure.  :S (Though nothing compared to nurses in Italian hospitals, of course, we've all seen the picture of that poor Italian nurse exhausted in the newspapers :()

By the way my company planned a teambuilding trip towards Switzerland, Grisons/Graubunden with landing in Zurich. For the moment, I have no news that that trip got cancelled but the virus is spreading rapidly in Switzerland though the Grisons are not the most infected Canton.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 13, 2020, 12:01
By the way my company planned a teambuilding trip towards Switzerland, Grisons/Graubunden with landing in Zurich. For the moment, I have no news that that trip got cancelled but the virus is spreading rapidly in Switzerland though the Grisons are not the most infected Canton.
I think you can assume that this trip will be cancelled eventually. :(

I'm happy I went on a trip to Chur and Graubünden in February, before sh*t hit the fan.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 13, 2020, 12:30
 The Giro's Hungarian stages bite the coronavirus dust.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalias-three-hungary-stages-have-been-cancelled-451548
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 13, 2020, 14:15
Wales v Scotland 6 Nations match now cancelled too.
Stupid to leave it until all the Scots were either in Cardiff or on their way, though.

The Masters also cancelled.

Can somebody pass me the whisky bottle? :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 13, 2020, 16:02
 :S

Mount Everest closed over coronavirus fears (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/mount-everest-coronavirus-closed-scli-intl/index.html)

(CNN) — The coronavirus outbreak has reached the top of the world.
Nepal announced on Friday it is shutting down all expeditions on Mount Everest for the rest of this year's climbing season amid the worsening global pandemic.

The move followed reports from climbers that the Chinese government has shut the Tibet side of the mountain.
"Expeditions to Mount Everest have been closed with immediate effect. Climbing permits are cancelled till the end of April," Nepal's Tourism Secretary Kedar Bahadur Adhikari said.
The decision comes at the start of this year's closely watched climbing season, which was already getting underway amid concerns around overcrowding on the Earth's highest peak. Permits to climb Everest cost around $11,000.

Breathing is hampered by the extreme altitudes on the mountain, so an outbreak of the coronavirus -- which often causes respiratory problems -- could have been particularly devastating at an Everest base camp.

(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/q_auto,w_1100,c_fill,g_auto,h_619,ar_16:9/http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.cnn.com%2Fcnnnext%2Fdam%2Fassets%2F160523182917-everest-getty-images.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 13, 2020, 16:15
 At this rate worldwide suicides in the next 3 months could outstrip virus deaths.
Especially in Belgium where they have closed all the bars. :S :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 13, 2020, 18:40
Is it worth starting a 2021 riders to watch thread?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 13, 2020, 19:25
the amount of available CQ points may need to be adjusted as well ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on March 13, 2020, 19:55


People are dumb, just incredibly dumb.

By the way, if anyone wants a sandwich while we're waiting for it to kick in, I've got loads of sausage rolls as well.

I misheard the instructions and thought we were picnic buying
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 13, 2020, 23:12
The Giro's Hungarian stages bite the coronavirus dust.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/giro-ditalia/giro-ditalias-three-hungary-stages-have-been-cancelled-451548
And the rest of the Giro too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 14, 2020, 01:13
Is it worth starting a 2021 riders to watch thread?

Maybe it's already time for a reflective Let's look back: the 2020 season in review thread.


Ah, yes. It seems like just a couple of months ago the Tour Down Under was kicking off. How time flies...

From Richie Porte's winning ride in Australia, all the way to Jasper Stuyven's victory at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad, to most of Paris-Nice being ridden—what a year to remember it was.

 :snooty

 :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 14, 2020, 12:07
https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/wetenschappers-erasmus-mc-en-uu-claimen-vondst-antilichaam-tegen-covid-19~ae6b1a87/?referrer=https://www.google.com/

Scientists at the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam claim to have found an antibody against Covid-19 which they say can prevent further infection and help detecting the virus.


Here a link in English: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987958v1

I don't know what to think of this as I'm clueless in biology but it seems we may have hope.  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 14, 2020, 14:38
I was thinking a bit the same when I saw all these Milanese rushing to the station heading Southern Italy, just before the quarantine.

...or even worse ;)

https://twitter.com/LaStampa/status/1237786393130070016
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 14, 2020, 23:22
It appears that you Corona-Carriers-of-the-Crown are no longer welcome here either... 
:P as the Trump administration has extended the travel ban to those coming from the U.K. as well.

 :yuush

(https://c8.alamy.com/comp/F23FJE/queen-elizabeth-i-fell-sick-and-died-on-24-march-1603-at-richmond-F23FJE.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 15, 2020, 07:44
 So, Senor Trump thought it a splendid idea to hold very long, massed gatherings of thousands of people, all over the country. After which they are all allowed go their separate ways to spread the................................er.............................word on how wonderful US airports are to spend a few hours meeting new people. :fp


https://twitter.com/Terrence_STR/status/1239020048041345025
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 15, 2020, 11:04
So, Senor Trump thought it a splendid idea to hold very long, massed gatherings of thousands of people, all over the country. After which they are all allowed go their separate ways

Not exactly. The airports may very well be a disaster, but that's got nothing to do with any Trump rallies. No one is flying to or from a Trump rally. Trust me, there's enough support on the ground from the locals in any of the regions where those rallies are held.

O'Hare is one of the busiest hubs in the country on any given day, so if there are logistical setbacks in the system, they'd most likely show up there anyway.

I think it's generally understood that the crowded airports were the result of large numbers of Americans all flying back from Europe, at the same time, while they could.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 15, 2020, 11:08
...or even worse ;)

Yeah, I saw that too. The Captain leaving the sinking ship first! :D

By the way, I got it wrong. The Tour of Morocco is also cancelled now. https://fr.hespress.com/131552-cyclisme-le-tour-du-maroc-annule-a-cause-du-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 15, 2020, 11:41
I went shopping yesterday for a few items, but mostly out of curiosity to observe the state of things.

I couldn't believe what I witnessed, and just how different it was from only two days ago.

The grocery store was practically stripped bare. No produce, no meat and very little dairy. Forget about paper goods or canned items, those were all gone too. Never in my lifetime have I seen anything like it, although I've no idea how most people are planning on storing so many fresh fruits and vegetables. The aisle of frozen goods was also nothing more than a row of empty freezers.

What was interesting, in an odd way, was all the cleaning that was taking place. Shelves that were bare for probably the first time since these stores opened were being hosed down and wiped clean. I really don't think it was an effort to sterilize surfaces to prevent the spread of the virus, rather it was the inescapable revelation of just how disgustingly unclean most of these areas were. Mold and mildew were rampant underneath the now-empty produce shelves,  as well as along the back of anything that used to hold cheese and milk. It was a glimpse that I'm not used to, and one that I probably could've done without.
 :S

The other notable thing—and this was equally true for my experiences a few days ago—was the overall calm of the customers. I didn't sense any panic or concern, or even exhausted distress. Rather, the shared mindset seemed to be something closer to a bemused detachment. As if to say, "Really? This is happening? OK, I'll play along if I must." There was more a resignation to the stupidity of the situation than any sense of apocalyptic doom.

I found that to be encouraging. Also, the weather was decent yesterday, if a bit on the cool side, and that brought out the usual crowds of people to the local walking and bike trail parks. I saw a couple of people oddly wearing face masks (not sure why you think you'd need one while walking in the woods, unless you, yourself, are contagious, in which case you probably shouldn't have left your home in the first place), but most people just carried on like life was normal. There was no exaggerated distancing from one another, although I was surprised to see a high school cross-country team assembling for a run. All the schools are closed for at least two weeks, and getting together to breathe heavily around each other seemed a very odd way to prevent community spread, but whatever.

The center of town only seemed a bit quieter than usual for a Saturday afternoon. Cafes and restaurants were open, the hardware store seemed no more or less busy than it typically might be, and people mostly seemed to be just going about their lives. So unless there's a sudden spike in the death toll, I don't expect this to have much a lasting impact in these parts. But who knows, that could all change in two week's time if hospitals run out of room and the stores aren't able to restock.

But mostly, it's just weird. Really, really weird. The world is shutting down, and I wonder what the long-term effects of that will be.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 15, 2020, 13:07
As I think it about it, this could be providing a workable template for a limited, but strict, quarantining in the future were it required. Now that people are grasping, and becoming accustomed to, the reality of massive international shut downs, and equally strict approach, but on a very local basis, would be much easier for people to accept. 

Thinking in terms of the U.S., if there were an outbreak of something truly terrifying in one state, it would now be more possible than ever to just shut it down. Close everything, no one in or out. Period. What would've seemed inconceivable just a few weeks ago would now be considered quite reasonable if the threat were serious enough. If entire countries can be locked down, then why not just one state in an effort to stop an outbreak in its tracks?

With that in mind, the organizers of the Tokyo Olympics (https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/51888491) are, as of right now, still forging ahead with all their plans. It would be one helluva thing if the spread of the virus is greatly reduced worldwide, only to flair up again in the wake of the International Games. Time will tell.

Quote
Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the Tokyo Olympic Games will go ahead as planned in July, despite coronavirus concerns resulting in the postponement of sporting events.

Abe added the International Olympic Committee (IOC) would have the final decision whether Tokyo 2020 goes ahead.

"We will overcome the spread of the infection and host the Olympics without problem, as planned," Abe said.

So, who is "we"? Are the Japanese in possession of some secret vaccine/antidote that the rest of us are unaware of?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 15, 2020, 13:09
No, they just have their heads in the sand currently.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 15, 2020, 13:41
Not exactly. The airports may very well be a disaster, but that's got nothing to do with any Trump rallies. No one is flying to or from a Trump rally. Trust me, there's enough support on the ground from the locals in any of the regions where those rallies are held.

O'Hare is one of the busiest hubs in the country on any given day, so if there are logistical setbacks in the system, they'd most likely show up there anyway.

I think it's generally understood that the crowded airports were the result of large numbers of Americans all flying back from Europe, at the same time, while they could.

(https://media2.giphy.com/media/cYCB6Kc14nQriMk3zx/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 15, 2020, 18:02
The grocery store was practically stripped bare. No produce, no meat and very little dairy. Forget about paper goods or canned items, those were all gone too. Never in my lifetime have I seen anything like it, although I've no idea how most people are planning on storing so many fresh fruits and vegetables. The aisle of frozen goods was also nothing more than a row of empty freezers.
Very different experience from here in Germany. I went shopping on Friday, and while there was a noticeable lack of pasta in the supermarket, there was still some pasta left on the shelves. Plenty of toilet paper as well.

There was no exaggerated distancing from one another, although I was surprised to see a high school cross-country team assembling for a run. All the schools are closed for at least two weeks, and getting together to breathe heavily around each other seemed a very odd way to prevent community spread, but whatever.
This made me laugh. :lol

With that in mind, the organizers of the Tokyo Olympics (https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/51888491) are, as of right now, still forging ahead with all their plans. It would be one helluva thing if the spread of the virus is greatly reduced worldwide, only to flair up again in the wake of the International Games. Time will tell.
Ain't going to happen.

I was supposed to go to the Paralympics this year as press officer with the *de team, and was looking forward to that - but it's not going to happen. Not this year.
It just isn't.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 15, 2020, 18:49
Wow Italy had a bad last 24 hours

The wife has someone she know, not a mate but used to ride horses with from time to time +ve
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 15, 2020, 19:31
Italy awful, Switzerland too.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 15, 2020, 19:46
(https://media2.giphy.com/media/cYCB6Kc14nQriMk3zx/giphy.gif)

Yeah, of course. It only occurs to me now that I misinterpreted your original post. By "mass gathering...all over the country" I thought you were referring to his rallies, because there was a lot of flak about that recently. But the crowded airports? Yeah, not that well thought out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 15, 2020, 20:42
Italy awful, Switzerland too.

 Yet the Balkans seem relatively unaffected.
I find this odd, given Switzerland and the proximity of Italy to both.
Hungary and Poland, too.

Looks like there is some evidence to support the theory that the virus doesn't do well in heat, but even there we find anomalies.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 15, 2020, 21:35
Worth a read fellas.

https://medium.com/@phoebetickell/i-need-you-to-read-this-and-decide-about-coronavirus-6dd184745b33
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 16, 2020, 01:20
Yet the Balkans seem relatively unaffected.
I find this odd, given Switzerland and the proximity of Italy to both.

Looks like there is some evidence to support the theory that the virus doesn't do well in heat, but even there we find anomalies.

Switzerland has a non mountainous border with Lombardy. Ticino is one of the most infected cantons (at least on 14 March!), along with the Vaud and Basel but Basel is close to Alsace, one of the most infected region in France. So I think there's some logic there.

I discussed with a colleague about the heat factor. He wasn't too sure about it. He gave me Singapore as a counter-example but if you look at the figures from Singapore, you'd see that it's not that high and there's high recovery rate (212 infected cases, no dead, 105 healed) and I guess Singapore as a major port and crossroad is "importing" a lot of cases.

What could work against that theory to me is the situation in the US. California, Florida and Louisiana are among the most infected states but then again you also have Washington, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, Colorado. At the end of the day, Northern states are still more infected than the Southern ones. What do you think?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 16, 2020, 03:02
Things are turning weirder and darker here...and fast.

The CDC is recommending suspending gatherings of 50 or more people for the next 8 weeks.

California, Ohio, Illinois, Massachussetts and Washington state all closing restaurants and bars, likely for 30 days at least. I'm certain other states will soon follow.

Five counties in Pennsylvania ordered to do the same by the state's governor.

New York City, New York friggin' City!, ordering all nightclubs, theaters and concert venues to close by Tuesday morning. Restaurants will be restricted to takeout and delivery only. Los Angeles implementing a similar strategy.

New Orleans, of course, has an entirely different concept when it comes to strictly limiting human interaction.
Mayor LaToya Cantrell announced all restaurants would need to close by 9 p.m., and bars and nightclubs by midnight.
Now that's sacrifice! :beer  :D

Seriously, though, the economic impact of this is going to be devastating. Not to mention the decline in morale as this drags on longer. If stores are not able to adequately restock along the way, there is going to be some serious social unrest.

I'm not even particularly freaked out, because none of this even seems real.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 16, 2020, 07:59
Update from *no outback: as you may remember I had decided to hide in my family´s cabin. With few people around (as in Friday: I saw the tracks of another skier....) the risk for infection (or even spreading it if I should carry it around without noticeable symptoms) should be very low and it should be a very good if minor contributor for the ´flatten the curve´mathematics.

However, the small communities in the Norwegian outback aren´t set up to handle large amounts of people from the city if they should fall ill and hence we were effectively sent back to the city - by a new law (!) announced this weekend  - for fear that these communities permanent inhabitants wouldn´t get their healthcare, as their services could become flooded by people from the city. (Yep this resembles an internalized anti immigration policy  :-x )

While the reasoning makes sense to a certain degree (ie... they don´t seem to account for the time it will take for more people to become infected) by setting more people in the densely packed city area, this decision actually speeds up the infection rate in the population. Infection rate depends on number of interactions between host organisms, which is dependent on density of people, which is much higher here in the city than in the outback. 
In my head, counterproductive measures at the national scale - even if it may help the small communities.

Next big decsions to come concerns the economical impact of stopping the country for a long time - the ethics of it are definetly difficult: If this disease primarily kills people 80+ and people with a pre-existing condition - just how much production should you sacrifice for their survival? Keep in mind that businesses will run bankrupt, people will lose their jobs, and that will impact society, for years ahead.

A particular concern of mine is children in low-income families if/when the parents become unemployed. It is not right to «purchase» increased survival in the 80+ age bracket at all cost, and the price tag is already high, in the very beginning of the epidemic. I am concerned that longer term societal effect of the slow-down could be worse than the epidemic itself  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 09:20
Switzerland has a non mountainous border with Lombardy. Ticino is one of the most infected cantons (at least on 14 March!), along with the Vaud and Basel but Basel is close to Alsace, one of the most infected region in France. So I think there's some logic there.

I discussed with a colleague about the heat factor. He wasn't too sure about it. He gave me Singapore as a counter-example but if you look at the figures from Singapore, you'd see that it's not that high and there's high recovery rate (212 infected cases, no dead, 105 healed) and I guess Singapore as a major port and crossroad is "importing" a lot of cases.

What could work against that theory to me is the situation in the US. California, Florida and Louisiana are among the most infected states but then again you also have Washington, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, Colorado. At the end of the day, Northern states are still more infected than the Southern ones. What do you think?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

I read somewhere the other day that it's not just about the level of infection in hot places, it's also about the strength of coronavirus bugs like colds and flu when the temperature is higher.

The science suggests, if I remember rightly, that at 15*C or below these types of viruses promote much more severe symptoms in their hosts (us) than they do when it's 25*C. So, the virulence gets much higher as the temperature drops, hence flu season. If you get the flu in the summer, you don't feel anywhere near as poorly.

That may well explain places like Singapore.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 16, 2020, 10:19
Here in Aus things are starting to get a bit more serious.

On Friday the government announced a ban on mass gatherings over 1000 people (starting from Monday though as the PM wanted to go to the footy :fp )

A LOT of sport and community activities have been cancelled - but so far schools still open, businesses and restaurants still open and people going about their daily lives.

The feeling is that schools will be closed - matter of when not if. 

Supermarkets are empty - people are just plain stupid.

Quite a few big businesses are trying to put 'work from home' plans in place - but a LOT of people will be in huge financial difficulty before this is done.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 16, 2020, 10:22
On Friday the government announced a ban on mass gatherings over 1000 people (starting from Monday though as the PM wanted to go to the footy :fp )

some countries in Europe are down to 5 or so, in Austria for example you are not allowed to meet with anyone who doesn't live in the same household. We are not on the same level in Germany yet (only asked to avoid all unnecessary social contacts), but it's only a matter of a couple of days, I guess.

Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 10:26
some countries in Europe are down to 5 or so, in Austria for example you are not allowed to meet with anyone who doesn't live in the same household. We are not on the same level in Germany yet (only asked to avoid all unnecessary social contacts), but it's only a matter of a couple of days, I guess.

Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently

Supermarket baskets and trolleys, petrol pumps, public transport, that sort of thing.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 16, 2020, 12:18

Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently

 Having stayed away over the weekend, I have just found this out for myself, while just shopping for essentials.
My conclusion is that the majority of folks are morons: huge numbers of individuals congregating in supermarkets to take part in the panic buying frenzy, oblivious to the fact that they are therefore in a contagion central of their own making.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 16, 2020, 12:39
This Monday, we've recorded a 5th deceased person in Belgium linked with the virus and 172 new cases in half a day :o (I'm not sure about this day though, perhaps it's the record from yesterday, Sunday). We've passed 1,000 infected cases, today.

For the moment, Flanders (650 cases) are a lot more infected than Wallonia (270) and Brussels (115). Even in a ratio per million inh. 252 patients are being hospitalised, 53 of them in intensive care, 31 of them need breathing assistance and one need breathing and heart assistance.  :o

My family town Namur is much less infected than other places in Wallonia but still the town is unusually deserted (of course the footage I saw was on Sunday but normally even on Sunday you've got cars crossing the streets. Now, people can walk in the middle of the road safely)

Also as I expected, a lot of orders at my online food delivery company. So mostly last Saturday a lot of work for my colleagues at the call centre but also from today on a lot of work for me at the back office because since restaurant owners realise that their only solution to make business is home delivery, a lot of new ones want to partner with us. Wish me strength.  ;)

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 16, 2020, 13:57
I was just reading the latest article on CN (https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/coronavirus-restrictions-stops-spanish-riders-training-sparks-abuse-of-italian-riders-outdoors/) about the restrictions being placed on cyclists in both Spain and Italy.

So the fear of a cyclist crashing, and then requiring hospitalization (which would take away from the needs of others) is the primary driving force behind such limitations?

I had assumed that originally they didn't want cyclist spreading or receiving the virus, so that's why they didn't want people out and about (which seemed a bit extreme), but is that not the case? Is this really based solely around the concern of hospitalization and other medical demands?

If people are being prevented from even riding their bikes, then this is a level of overbearing control that I never expected to see in my lifetime, be it justified or not.

Especially in light of everything that's going on, if I were told that I wasn't allowed to ride, I would have a very serious problem with that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 16:07
When you consider that Doctors are already having to choose which patients are ‘worth’ saving due to massive overcrowding, it doesn’t seem an irresponsible measure to be honest.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 16:10
Having stayed away over the weekend, I have just found this out for myself, while just shopping for essentials.
My conclusion is that the majority of folks are morons: huge numbers of individuals congregating in supermarkets to take part in the panic buying frenzy, oblivious to the fact that they are therefore in a contagion central of their own making.

I suspect it’s also because they think it’s somewhat safe now and that it may not be next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 16, 2020, 16:36
When you consider that Doctors are already having to choose which patients are ‘worth’ saving due to massive overcrowding, it doesn’t seem an irresponsible measure to be honest.

 Eh? I haven't heard of anybody going around painting red crosses on doors.
 Where are the doctors having to do that?
 

I suspect it’s also because they think it’s somewhat safe now and that it may not be next week.

 You give them way too much credit in the thinking department.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 18:05
Italy Huw. There’s a priority list been compiled, the oldest and most infirm at the bottom. Nowhere near enough beds, staff or treatments to treat everyone currently. Sadly.

https://www.businessinsider.com/italys-doctors-are-forced-to-prioritize-saving-the-young-2020-3
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 16, 2020, 18:09
Italy Huw. There’s a priority list been compiled, the oldest and most infirm at the bottom. Nowhere near enough beds, staff or treatments to treat everyone currently. Sadly.

That would be the government then.  :D
No doubt about it: Italy's health system running about as smoothly as a 20 year old Alfa Romeo.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 18:50
That would be the government then.  :D
No doubt about it: Italy's health system running about as smoothly as a 20 year old Alfa Romeo.


Alfa Romeos struggle after 3 years, I had one. Lovely car, but Jesus did it need to go to the garage every 3 months. From new too Huw.

On a more serious note, I think we’ll be seeing more of what’s happening in Italy as healthcare services get oversubscribed.

Just been speaking to my old man, dread to think of the implications if he gets it and faces that scenario. Just said I’ll have a lot of time on my hands as business is actually dead now for however many months, 95% of my bookings have gone now. At least I can do the supermarket runs for him if he’s put into over 70s isolation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 16, 2020, 19:05
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5c/Olympic_rings_without_rims.svg/200px-Olympic_rings_without_rims.svg.png)

Ain't going to happen.

But... :slow

Olympic supremo Coates in isolation but says Games will go on (https://www.smh.com.au/sport/olympic-supremo-coates-in-isolation-but-says-games-will-go-on-20200316-p54ap2.html)


Australian Olympic Committee president John Coates will spend the next fortnight in quarantine after flying in from Europe, but maintains Tokyo 2020 will go ahead and has revealed there is no May deadline to decide whether to cancel the Games or not as senior International Olympic Committee member Dick Pound suggested last month.


Quote
But while much of world sport has ground to a half in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic, Olympic officials insist the Games will start on July 24. Speaking from Switzerland, Coates told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that Tokyo organisers would not have to decide whether or not to stage the Olympics by May, as had been widely accepted since Pound raised the issue of a deadline last month.

“The IOC didn’t recognise any dates that Dick came up with and I think Dick backed off that as well. It’s all proceeding to start on the 24th of July,” Coates said.

Can this be real? :S

This is all about money. They're not going to let this slip through their grasp if they can at all help it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 16, 2020, 19:14
The Olympics won’t happen, clearly. Head in the sand stubbornness.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Servais Knavendish on March 16, 2020, 19:53
yes agree - but why the dithering - its already clear that can't go ahead; so why not call it now and then give everyone more time to organize the 2021 or 2022 games; or give Tokyo 2024 and punt LA 4 years later.  Other events /expos / shows etc have stalled their own cancellation pending government instruction re insurance etc; but this is independent of all that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 16, 2020, 20:51
yes agree - but why the dithering - its already clear that can't go ahead; so why not call it now and then give everyone more time to organize the 2021 or 2022 games; or give Tokyo 2024 and punt LA 4 years later.  Other events /expos / shows etc have stalled their own cancellation pending government instruction re insurance etc; but this is independent of all that.

 The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.
4 years is a non starter. Imagine if London 2012 had to wait until 2016.
Get this wrong and there may never be another Olympics.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 16, 2020, 22:19
The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.

2022 could actually be an option, with the World Cup scheduled to take place during the Winter that year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: ciranda on March 17, 2020, 01:30
Italy
Reports are scary and has been for more than two weeks and there's no sign of letting up. In some hospitals fifty, seventy people turn up a day with heavy symptoms who will then be asked to go home because there are no ressources for treatment. The personal stories that you can read are heartbreaking, the dying in isolation, the newspaper with ten pages of obituaries.

Old people who get this will die. The italian health care sector is rated second best in the world and better than the danish by some distance. I don't see how it will not be at least as bad here in three weeks although the lockdown will maybe buy time and with other lessons learned maybe make it less severe. In countries that have acted later or more undecisively like Sweden and Belgium it could be worse.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 17, 2020, 02:05
and that is the biggest problem.  The mortality rate should be less than 1% ... but if the health system is overwhelmed, and people cant be treated - that is when the death rate goes way up.

Italy scares me.  I have family in Lombardy, and it is really frightening what is happening there.

There are only so many intensive care beds available, so many respirators and limited staff to work ... once these are bursting, things are going to get very hard, very quickly.

However - there is significant hope that some of the isolation measures being taken in many countries last week and this week start to kick in and we level off the spiralling cases, and keep the situation where the various health care systems can manage. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 17, 2020, 02:13
The Italian health care sector is rated second best in the world
Interesting, as this very much contradicts much of the noise I've read online. Is this generally accepted as true?


Quote
I don't see how it will not be at least as bad here in three weeks

Where is "here"?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 17, 2020, 02:23
Things are getting a bit more concerning by the day. I try not to use the term "scary" because I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around the reality of all this.

I'm just getting reports of two U.S. ER doctors who are in critical condition from the virus, and one of them is only in his 40s.

I'm having to tune out much more than I'm tuning in, but as a result I feel that I'm losing some perspective. The signal to noise ratio is increasing daily, and it doesn't seem to be helping things. I'm in a situation where I really don't have to interact with the outside world too much if need be, with the exception of a few instances which could prove to be problematic (sorry if I'm being too vague, but that's all I really care to share at this point).

Both my parents are quite old, and would seem to be prime targets for the worst of this. They've tended to outlive most of their friends, and have a knack at defying the odds. Only time will tell, however.

I'm not losing sleep over any of this, though, because it truly feels surreal.

On the lighter side:

https://twitter.com/rouleur/status/1239537082219089925
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 17, 2020, 05:51
So check this out. This is an eerily prescient warning from Bill Gates from just five years ago. To watch it now is nothing short of astounding.

Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We’re not ready
2015
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Af6b_wyiwI

So fascinating to hear him refer to the Ebola outbreak as a "wake up call," when really, it's the current COVID-9 pandemic that will likely force any change in the system that might come. I've been saying how this really has been the dress rehearsal that we, as a planet, never really had. Should something truly terrifying make its way into our lives in the near future, I can only hope that the circumstances of today will have prepared us for that.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 17, 2020, 09:37
Second, I was reading an article about Canada's opportunity to "flatten the curve" in a very respectable local magazine.
They have tracked cases back to the first observed in the Canada back on 25 Jan. That curve shows a long tail, a slight rise, some limited acceleration and, overall, a pretty low level of cases (400 or so in a population of 34m).
However, that tail doesn't show the exponential growth that the author of the article wanted to prove .., so he did the classic "drunk and lamp post" trick with stats ... and cut off the tail!! Taking out all cases below the 100 cases level - which was about March 10 or 11.
Cutting off those first 45 days and only focusing on the last 6 shows the exponential curve that lets certain groups sell their story.
Of course, it also provides a deeply skewed picture ... not to mention a false one (even without breaking down the stats into ages, province, heatlh, comorbidity, etc)
This isn't great.

Here's another thing: Given that the virus began in China in mid-November, and Hubei province was only locked down in mid-January, plus there's a lack of testing basically everywhere, the likelihood of there being a massive dark figure of undiagnosed cases is higher than the opposite.

For all we know, some of us may have had this and, if it was asymptomatic, not even noticed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 17, 2020, 11:14
actually a lot of the stats are only starting when the country reaches 100 cases.  It is a bit odd ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: ciranda on March 17, 2020, 11:47
Interesting, as this very much contradicts much of the noise I've read online. Is this generally accepted as true?


I think that was an older paper from WHO that I can't find now so maybe wrong Idk. There is this which says ninth https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30994-2/fulltext#fig1 this comparison says fourth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/u-s-near-bottom-of-health-index-hong-kong-and-singapore-at-top

The above was just my impression from media and talking to people who know more.

@kiwirider I read about the comorbidity factor as well from danish authorities, who said that so far almost everyone admitted are chronically ill with something but then I read articles in italian papers about some of the dead who were often people that were just old but with no medical history (not data just people's stories).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 17, 2020, 13:02
... and that Italy's healthcare system has consistently had funding cuts since about 2012 as the government has sought to bring budgets under control ... so it would be interesting to see how much the impacts of those cuts have shown through.

from this statistics it looks like it's rather steady

https://www.statista.com/statistics/788691/share-of-gdp-on-health-expenditure-in-italy/

and given that there's quite a huge difference between the North and the South...

https://www.thelocal.it/20180219/italy-north-south-health-inequality

... personally I'd say, the health care system in that part of the country is pretty good (compared to other European countries)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: ciranda on March 17, 2020, 13:24
Age is definitely a factor. i read a study that showed that for Italy either the average or median (again, sorry, can't remember the source - and I'm writing this before I race down for breakfast at my hotel and off to work!) age is 80 years ...  Whichever parameter it is, we're (with all due respect to the dead) dealing with a lot of people who are naturally nearing the end of their life and so are seeing what, based on my experience with older friends and family, is just a normal slight acceleration of their end. (Again, as I say, with all due respect to people's loss.)
I agree a great number of old people with chronic respiratory or other problems will think to themselves or maybe say out loud; if this is my time to go that's ok. Maybe they have been ill and hospitalized a lot already. But their families will surely not think like that. In addition it is not at all a quiet way to die. Patients are sedated heavily towards the end because otherwise they will choke to death isolated in a sterilized room with no relatives there to visit and say hi or just be there.

If comorbidity is as low as 50 percent that's a lot of people with basically just weakened immune defense because of age that had otherwise been healthy.

The papers I linked to are from 2016 and 2018.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 17, 2020, 14:06
Just found out that my work while a long way from the frontline, is going to have to stay open if/when we have a 14 day lockdown.

1st day at the Hospital that we noticed big changes, not where I work but we are there working with Patients. Non essential departments are closing, ortho ops not going ahead.

Very different to 24 hours ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Servais Knavendish on March 17, 2020, 14:07
Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.
4 years is a non starter. Imagine if London 2012 had to wait until 2016.
Get this wrong and there may never be another Olympics.


Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 

I mean it's about as far from ideal as possible; and gives the Japanese government 4 years to carry the infrastructure debt; before any ticket returns etc.  But when you look at London there would have been no issue with not putting up the temporary structures and simply somewhat perversely using the other stadia in a post Games usage pattern in advance of the Games.

My worry is that no one is quite sure that the essential and now much impacted event pre-qualifying etc will even be viable in Q1 or Q2 2021; and another enforced delay might be terminal?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 17, 2020, 14:09
Word is Olympics in 2 years if cancelled ie 2022. Commonwealth games probably loose out
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 17, 2020, 14:40
Interesting view from the ground. The first few minutes are telling.

SOCIAL DISTANCE CYCLING
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Gi9-GnoH1I

Quote
Just a few days before the Coronavirus Lockdown riding through TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK. Not sure why people are still out crowding restaurants and bars. I hope you all are practicing social isolation/ quarantine

-----------------

Then this...

https://twitter.com/Vaughters/status/1239927810849832961
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 17, 2020, 16:01
Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 



 It's simply too long to maintain all of the facilities, especially when many sites are usually designated to future urban projects/developments.
 At least, that's what I am assuming, given the Tokyo Bay Zone, is said to be: designed to serve as a “model for innovative urban development.”

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 17, 2020, 16:06
so far Bach seems to see no reason to postpone the Games at all

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETUZf1gXkAAkkWI?format=png&name=large)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 17, 2020, 22:55
For those that can read *se Swedish (actually it is about Finland):
(https://i.imgur.com/muMKU1h.png)

For the rest, this is about the way that the Finnish are usually caricatured in film and literature. Finnish TV-drama used to be a weekly screening when I grew up and it was mostly small groups lost in the woods finding a sauna and a few bottles of vodka so they they could sit down and be properly melancholic  ;)

Anyway, an attempt at translating it:
"Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".

The comment:
"And now,  bastards, you are about to see quarantine that really works.
WE WERE BORN FOR THIS!"

 :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 17, 2020, 23:11
"Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".
Parties in ... well, not in the streets of Helsinki.

Parties by every Finn separately, in their own homes. :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 18, 2020, 02:29
I returned to the super market this afternoon. It was actually a pleasant surprise to see much of the store completely restocked with fresh meat and produce, all displayed on recently-well cleaned shelves. They were still very much in the process of restocking parts of the frozen food section, and cleaning materials along with paper goods were still nowhere to be found. But it was encouraging to see that desperate shoppers hadn't ruined the supply chain (yet).

The crowds were about what I would normally expect for a Tuesday afternoon, and everyone seemed very relaxed and chilled out. Hopefully this means that the first wave of hysterical shopping was a one-and-done ordeal.

But now I see that New York City is considering a "Shelter-in place" order, much like what San Francisco has already adopted. Personally, I have a serious problem with such policies.

Under the strict public health measure, all non-essential businesses would be shut down. That means only police and fire departments, hospitals, grocery stores, pharmacies and perhaps gas stations, banks and laundromats would remain open.

Quote
“It’s taking some of the rules we’re encouraging people to follow now making them tighter and reducing the workforce greatly and reducing travel greatly,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said, warning that food service and retail could be shut down.

Folks would need to have a reason to be outside that would be deemed “essential” — like picking up groceries or medicine. Only essential workers would be allowed to move about.

In San Francisco, leaving the house for exercise such as walking, hiking or running, is allowed — as long as they remain six feet away from people who don’t live with them. The mayor didn’t specify whether that would be the case in the Big Apple, but did say that activities like Little League would be “gone.”

Also in San Francisco, anyone in violation of the order could be charged with a misdemeanor.

It’s not clear whether New York will follow suit, but de Blasio did say that the [police] NYPD would be deployed in the streets for enforcement, as would, perhaps, the [fire dept] FDNY.

Quote
De Blasio also didn’t rule out travel out of the city being banned.  :S
I've no idea how that would even be legal. It's just mind-boggling to think how quickly, and with such apparent ease, that a police state could be put in place.

Edit:
More local news just in:

The school year has just gone from a two-week hiatus to termination. What was supposed to be Spring Break has become the end of the semester. That will reek havoc with all the high school seniors as far as final grades, sports records, proms and graduations go.

For everyone else it's probably party time.  :party

I despised high school as a teen. Something like this would've been like a gift from God.
Maybe it's a blessing in disguise for teachers as well. If they still get paid, they may just end up with a nice six-month break before the fall semester begins.

I've no idea how this is all going to shake out. So many unknowns; so many variables; so many implications.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 18, 2020, 07:03
A second patient in Wales has died from coronavirus, it has been confirmed.

The 96-year-old patient was being treated..........


Age not a factor, then. :S
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 18, 2020, 08:51
Age is a factor so is previous medical conditions, but not always.

But being over 50 - lower immunity add to that being sick

Not officially yet but France , Seattle and NYC have seen very fit 30-40 year old with severe symptoms only link anti inflammatory drugs

Quiet a few very healthy Drs and Nurses are getting very sick FWIW
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 18, 2020, 12:42
 The UCI are extending the season, initially to November 1st and looking to overlap races.

https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/uci-extends-cycling-season-451978

 I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 18, 2020, 12:53
I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.

yeah, I don't think anyone would mind an edition of Paris-Roubaix in early December even ;D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 18, 2020, 13:25
https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1240257063504281602?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 18, 2020, 13:51
Age has been a factor so far now it seems that the virus is more and more affecting younger people. In Belgium, on 15 March the majority of the women infected ranged between 40 and 44 and men between 45 and 49. Also we had eleven babies or 4- year old kids infected. So younger people are not immune to the virus. I think they will survive but they are having a real bad time.

https://www.dhnet.be/actu/belgique/coronavirus-en-belgique-11-des-886-cas-sont-des-bebes-ou-enfants-de-moins-de-4-ans-la-tranche-d-age-la-plus-touchee-se-situe-entre-45-et-49-ans-5e6e6becf20d5a29c66e491d

The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us. She had no health issues prior to getting the virus and regularly did sport. She is now bedridden, with breathing complication and constantly gasping. At first she felt pain in the bowels like gastro-enteritis. Then four days later, headaches, extreme fatigue, stretched back and fever. Two days later, she could no longer prepare a meal as she was short of breath and could no longer move. She collapsed. "When you are lying down on the ground, you know that coronavirus is more than a flu". A special ambulance took her (as she was quarantined).

https://www.facebook.com/ka.mille.94/posts/10219296927106929

Pretty sure that Camille is going to survive but nobody wants to live what she's living. That's why she's encouraging us to be careful (wear gloves, masks, or a scarf).   :cool
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 18, 2020, 15:02
The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us.

Understandably, but with such severe symptoms and reactions, I have to wonder of she's battling other health issues as well. Her condition does not sound consistent with anything else I've read about.

As far as young children: I don't think there's any question that they are susceptible to contracting the virus, but the overall consensus is that symptoms will typically be very mild, if present at all. Were that to change, however, then we'd be looking at a much more concerning global trend.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 18, 2020, 15:08
I don't think that it will be anything outside the borders -

Speaking of which:

They've just closed the borders between Canada and the U.S. for travelers.

As far as I know, this does not apply to goods and services

That's a news headline I never imagined seeing in my lifetime.

 *ca   :sick  :wut  :disapointed *usa
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 19, 2020, 01:59
There's a shift in the narrative taking place, and it's quite concerning.

As more data emerges, the younger generation appears to be at greater risk than previously believed. This is significant, and not something to be dismissed too easily. If anything, alarm bells should be going off. Initially, it appeared that the youth were not at any great risk, and that the main concern was their ability to spread it to other, more vulnerable, members of society.

But now there are reports of permanent lung damage being sustained, and other damaging effects of the virus on pre-teens, teens, and those in their early twenties. This is quite a contrast to what we were being told only a few days ago.

Everything is moving so quickly that it will likely take a bit more time to sort this all out, but it's the most frightening development I've seen since the pandemic set in, and the data seems to be moving in that direction.

Speaking of...
Spring Break seems to be in full swing in my favorite state of Florida, and there's no shortage of dumb college kids gathering for drunken revelry, with zero concern for themselves or others. They would appear to be graduates of Tide Pod U. after making statements such as, "Ya' know, if I get corona, I get corona."

They still probably haven't been told that it's not a lifetime supply of Mexican beer. I just don't understand why the local governments are allowing this (besides the obvious profit motive). But the Florida governor should've stepped in and just said No. Now these mentally challenged morons are going to scatter back home across the country, bringing with them god-only-knows what.

If I were on the receiving end of that, as governor of their destination state, I would impose a mandatory 4-week quarantine in the least hospitable warehouse I could find. Bologna sandwiches and water to soothe their hunger pangs, along with all the comforts of sleeping on a concrete floor.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 19, 2020, 06:04
https://twitter.com/MelindaHoward4/status/1240264682021228544?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 19, 2020, 14:00
I was able to sleep in much later than usual today, but I'm not sure what I'm waking up to.

The warnings are becoming more dire. Some local hospitals are expecting to be at capacity by this weekend.

40% of patients so far are 20 to 54-years-old.

The veneer is slowly slipping from newscasters as some of them are no longer pretending that this won't be terrible. They don't want to create panic, but they seem to be moving on from the idea that this requires anything less than a very serious response. There's less and less room for niceties and formalities.

I'll admit that I wasn't quite expecting this. I think it's still too early to know just how bad it may or may not get, but the next five days or so are going to be somewhat grim and very telling. If the virus turns out to be much more dangerous than we were originally led to believe, then it may be too late by the time we come to terms with that. Too late in terms of proper containment, that is.

The U.S. may very soon become the next epicenter. I guess we'll find out which country has the most dumb people, too. I would think that we could secure that title with ease, I'm just wondering if we'll get a chance to prove it to the world. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 20, 2020, 00:18
Here is Aus they still have not closed schools. 

They have announced closed borders at least, and some social distancing measures ... but people dont really take them that seriously.  People are still going out to eat and socialise and some sport is still on.

We dont have many cases ... but it is trending the exact same way as everywhere else, so I am not sure why the govt believes that we will be any different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 20, 2020, 14:38
They have announced closed borders at least

I thought those were called the Indian and Pacific oceans? :slow  :P

Surprised to hear that it's not being taken more seriously otherwise, though. Are they waiting for a bigger case study than what most of the planet is already offering?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 20, 2020, 18:44
The restrictions and confinements are creeping ever-closer to our state line.  :wut

New York Governor Cuomo shuts down "non-essential" businesses amid coronavirus


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7smsOKb-eA
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 20, 2020, 23:03
well, the circumstances in Singapore are a bit different though, located on an island with just a handful of ways inside the city/country.

They did a good job keeping it under control for sure, especially as they acted early on, completely isolating the cases and tracking back all contacts they had. But we are far beyond the point where similar measures could still work out elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 20, 2020, 23:42
Those things aren't necessarily bad ... check out what Singapore did

Thanks for sharing that. That was quite an interesting read.

One thing that was conspicuously missing was any mention of the climate/temps. There was initial speculation that warmer whether inhibited the spread of the virus, and I remember some pointing to Singapore as possible validation of that. But then I saw a report that disputed this notion, and I haven't heard much about it since. But I do wonder if climate played a role at all, however minor, in curbing the effects of the virus in Singapore.

Three main things jumped out for me in that article:

1) Keeping the schools open (without any apparent crisis arising as a result).

2) The importance of clear and orderly communication from the government top-down.

3) The fact that the previous Sars outbreak served as a valuable dress-rehearsal. Which is made even more impressive when one realizes that that was nearly 20 years ago, and yet the country still remained vigilant so many years later.

That's what I feel can be the silver lining to the current COVID-19 pandemic. If there's anything positive to come out of this, it's that, hopefully, all countries and will be better prepared in terms of stock piling the necessary medical supplies ahead of time, and systems of quick-reaction will be put in place to respond in the event of something even much more serious.

The other, and perhaps much more significant, gain to be made from all this is a general public that now fully understands the concept of what a pandemic is, what it can do, and how quickly it can escalate. Even more beneficial is having a public that understands shut-down mode. Prior to all this (and this only goes back a few weeks), it was nearly inconceivable that so much travel would be restricted, and that so many people would be forced to stay at home. Should the need for a similar response arise in the near future, it would be exponentially easier for people to wrap their heads around what needs to be done, and what it looks and feels like to do it.
 
That, to me, is an invaluable lesson to be learned from all this, and there's really no substitute for the real thing. There's just no way we could've staged a world-wide preparatory drill before this. It could only be done when faced with reality. But considering the fact that scientists have been warning of pandemics, super-bugs, and even the potential for bio-warfare, for many years, this may turn out to be little more than a "fire-drill" for the future.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 21, 2020, 02:14
Basically science is confirming what Grandma knew - sunlight, warm temps and fresh air beats a bug ...!

Thanks, I'll check out those links. As to the above...

I was joking among some friends that, won't it just be the case that those idiotic college kids in Florida, flaunting their participation in Spring Break, (http://velorooms.com/index.php?topic=9212.0;message=2254278) will dodge the bullet simply because coronavirus does not like sand, sunshine and saltwiter. (And who knows, maybe the virus is not fond of Mexican beer either, so those dumb kids may just be inadvertently inoculating themselves with hubris.)

(Btw, the Gov of Florida has finally closed the beaches and sent those brats packing.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 21, 2020, 02:43
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcS_zxm4PhT423Yn4dW8g0ZcUAZa9i16hcizC3kAqjC1YMiqbHOh)

It appears that my home state is joining in the fun too.  :wut

Gov. Lamont Orders Non-Essential Businesses Closed; Urges Residents to Stay Home (https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/gov-lamont-to-provide-update-on-connecticut-coronavirus-cases/2242239/)

Lamont is issuing an executive order to slow the growth of coronavirus in Connecticut and allow for as many available hospital beds as possible.

----------------

What to Know

- Governor Ned Lamont is signing an executive order as part of a new campaign called "Stay Safe, Stay at Home" that will require non-essential businesses to close.

- The order will take effect at 8 p.m. on Monday, March 23.

- A number of exemptions of essential services will be laid out in the coming days, but will include grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, ongoing major construction projects and defense industry manufacturing.[/quote]

"Those retail stores that are non-essential, do not open," he said.

Businesses that don't comply could face civil fines, Lamont said.

The closures will take effect at 8 p.m. on Monday, March 23 and could last for weeks, he said.  :sick

--------------

Exemptions from the order will likely include:

Grocery stores
Take out and delivery food service
Gas stations
Pharmacies
Major construction projects already underway
Major defense manufacturing facilities
Public transportation
Childcare services
Auto repair stores
Hardware stores
Banks/Financial institutions

and...

Package stores.
You can only push people so far!  :yuush

------------------

Serious question though:
What about bike shops? Do I need to stock up now on tyres, tubes, chain lube, etc.? :slow

I'm not sure they've fully thought this through!   :o


(https://www.courant.com/resizer/Lostx8HzqS-Z7z_aIq2-sshkz8s=/415x415/top/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-tronc.s3.amazonaws.com/public/S2MLSYYE2RDR7MCQJ5VTQOERF4.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 21, 2020, 07:33
As someone who has spent an extended time living and working in SIN ...
It is true that they are a small space with limited access points - but those points absolutely hum and are an absolute hub for so many locations. The shipping traffic is, i would argue, far more significant as an access point - both crews and cargoes (and the sheer number of diverse vessels!)
They also wouldn't close off the bridges from Malaysia - the country is absolutely reliant on Malaysian workers at all levels and in all sectors ...

I would also be interested to know how effective those measures would be at a later stage in the disease cycle. True, you wouldn't hold at SIN levels, but would they still prove a really significant cap???

I don't know, really, personal I struggle to see it. Singapore started this when they had a dozen positive cases or so, and the risk to import more of them was basically limited to China (leading to screenings and tests at the airport and so on) - now we have ten thousands (or probably way more) over here in Germany alone, who got in contact with a million other people I guess, and everyone who comes into the country is basically a person of risk to spread it further, no matter where from.

I agree that new strategies need to be found for sure though. The "flatten the curve" approach is not a bad one to begin with, but if we really manage to keep it that low that the health care system can cope with it (if the expected numbers are correct), that would also mean that it takes 10 years or so to get done with it - which obviously is not a real option.

Even if we get a vaccine in one year, or some medication in 6 months... this is still fairly far away. And so far I haven't read/heard much what's supposed to happen until then. Are we currently just postponing the big blow by 2 months or so to get the hospitals prepared for it at least?! Will we just lock in all elderly and sick people for a year?! I don't know. And I surely wouldn't want to be the one to decide.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 21, 2020, 10:30
Even if we get a vaccine in one year, or some medication in 6 months... this is still fairly far away. And so far I haven't read/heard much what's supposed to happen until then. Are we currently just postponing the big blow by 2 months or so to get the hospitals prepared for it at least?! Will we just lock in all elderly and sick people for a year?! I don't know. And I surely wouldn't want to be the one to decide.
Test, then isolate & treat the positives.

And people shouldn't be tested once, then be done with it. They should be tested several times. Per day.

Obviously this doesn't need to be the full test every time. But temperature scanners at the entrance to every supermarket etc. would be a good first step.

An interview with an epidemiologist "who helped defeat smallpox":
https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/ (https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/)

A full lock-down, Italy style, can always ever be the first measure. Already there is fallout from it:
https://twitter.com/andreabagnato/status/1240692360532471812

This article even has a tl;dr aka. abstract at the top:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 (https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56)

Quote
Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Flo on March 21, 2020, 11:39
Singapore used the track and trace method and managed to control the outbreak pretty efficiently. However, to accomplish that they ordered several plane loads of tests, something they could do because they were one of the earliest countries to start combatting the virus. Fact is there aren't enough tests to even remotely follow the track, trace and isolate method in most Western countries. I know Germany is testing a lot of people, but here in the Netherlands, authorities have been forced to limit testing only to the elderly and vulnerable showing significant symptoms. This is also the reason why our death rate is so high compared to the number of confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 21, 2020, 11:51
yeah, I've read some of those articles about mitigation/suppression, but tbh, to me, they all seem to say basically nothing.

The article Lukas quoted for example says that we need a suppression strategy, "The Hammer". Which means "act[ing] quickly and aggressively". Because a "heavy Hammer with strict social distancing measures, can definitely control the outbreak within weeks. It’s a matter of discipline, execution, and how much the population abides by the rules."

What does this mean though? The guy on Twitter you quoted claims that most people are infected at work - wo what's the conclusion of that? Everyone stays at home for three week and we weld shut all doors like in China?!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 21, 2020, 12:51
here in the Netherlands, authorities have been forced to limit testing only to the elderly and vulnerable showing significant symptoms.

It's quite difficult to get tested here, as well, from what I understand.

To my knowledge, you'd have to be showing very clear symptoms, then you'd be tested for strep, influenza, and maybe a few other things. Only if those come back negative would you then be eligible for a coronavirus test.

The exceptions to that would be if you had contact with someone who had tested positive, or had traveled to a high-risk area.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Flo on March 21, 2020, 13:12
It's quite difficult to get tested here, as well, from what I understand.

To my knowledge, you'd have to be showing very clear symptoms, then you'd be tested for strep, influenza, and maybe a few other things. Only if those come back negative would you then be eligible for a coronavirus test.

The exceptions to that would be if you had contact with someone who had tested positive, or had traveled to a high-risk area.
Yeah, that's what the testing protocol was like here first. Only if you were showing symptoms, had been in contact with someone who was confirmed as infected, or traveled to China or northern Italy. Although my brother's girlfriend's parents both got the virus, father was in hospital for over a week before he was tested (though to be fair this was before the first case here was announced), mother got ill a couple days later but she was never tested, they just assumed she was infected also. But now even less people are tested. I don't know how countries like Germany have so many more tests than us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 21, 2020, 13:33
Sweden is the same Flo, only those with very bad symptoms or Acute Respiratory infection are being tested. Not even medical staff. This is a Government decision. So our real figures I assume 3-4 higher so about 4000-5000
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 21, 2020, 13:42
But now even less people are tested. I don't know how countries like Germany have so many more tests than us.

I don't know what the exact numbers are for the Netherlands, but in Germany something between ~150-200k tests per week can be analysed. Under huge efforts those numbers could be stretched by another 30% or so, but that's it. So even here, mass testing is not an option, as it's just not possible.

South Korea is testing 12000 people a day by the way, so (although the exact numbers are not known for Germany) it's actually not as much as media reports make it sound like. At that rate, it would still take them 12 years to test the whole country (once).

edit: last week ~16000 people in Germany tested positive, so if we assume that the vast majority of tests returned negative (a number of 95% was circulating a couple of days ago, which probably has changed) we must be at the limit with that testing as well - and yes, also only testing those with clear symptons/records
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 21, 2020, 14:28
Sweden is the same Flo, only those with very bad symptoms or Acute Respiratory infection are being tested. Not even medical staff. This is a Government decision. So our real figures I assume 3-4 higher so about 4000-5000

When we had 1,200 confirmed cases, the estimated number of actual cases was in excess of 50,000.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 21, 2020, 15:05
When we had 1,200 confirmed cases, the estimated number of actual cases was in excess of 50,000.

Wow, much smaller country here though but very scary figures
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 21, 2020, 15:15
When we had 1,200 confirmed cases, the estimated number of actual cases was in excess of 50,000.

Over 50,000?
I saw guesstimates for 20,000-50,000 at the same point.
Depends what you want to believe I suppose.
I take consolation from the fact that if true, the virus is a heck of a lot less lethal than any percentages based upon confirmed cases
There are lots of numbers being batted about these days.
Case in point regarding potential death toll, but an interesting read as it's not as inflammatory as much of the BBC's normal output.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

 

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 21, 2020, 15:48
Yes, I’m inclined to think the death rate is actually way lower than the percentages we’re led to believe. If you look at the countries where there is loads of testing there are much fewer deaths per actual case. Countries such as Germany.

In the UK and many other places it looks much higher, as I suspect there are tens or perhaps hundreds of thousands of cases that are recovered from in isolation but which never get included in the stats because those people go nowhere near a hospital.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 21, 2020, 16:35
Yes, I’m inclined to think the death rate is actually way lower than the percentages we’re led to believe. If you look at the countries where there is loads of testing there are much fewer deaths per actual case. Countries such as Germany.

it look like, yeah. Although the fact that in Germany many people who were initially tested (positive) were those coming back from work travels, holiday (skiing in the Alpes) and so on, may play its part as well, leading to a younger/fitter part of the population getting in touch with the virus.

Just recently we also had the first positives in a retirement home, leading to 9 deaths pretty much immediately. All of them were old of course and had underlying medical condition, but it also shows that there's not much doubt that the virus is of high risk for those, no matter in which part of the world you're living.

https://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayern/neun-menschen-in-pflegeheim-an-corona-infektion-gestorben,Rto86kr

Of course, as the article MV linked above pointed out, there's the possibility that the effects on the overall mortality rate in 2020 will be minor, but it's still worrying, what other effects it may have if many of those need help at the same time (like in Italy).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 21, 2020, 16:55

Just recently we also had the first positives in a retirement home, leading to 9 deaths pretty much immediately. All of them were old of course and had underlying medical condition, but it also shows that there's not much doubt that the virus is of high risk for those, no matter in which part of the world you're living.


 The very first case we had in my district was about 500 metres from where I live.................in a retirement home.
I guess that visitors come from all over the place and that someone had recently returned from Italy.
 I have been outside just 3 times this week. This afternoon I went for a walk around and everything looked absolutely normal, right down to a gang of kids playing football and others generally socializing. That's why I don't think closing schools is the greatest of ideas.
 A stark contrast to the big cities, where the changes implemented have had the biggest impact on the way of life.
 Not surprising therefore, that opinions differ.................at least for the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 21, 2020, 17:00
In the UK and many other places it looks much higher, as I suspect there are tens or perhaps hundreds of thousands of cases that are recovered from in isolation but which never get included in the stats because those people go nowhere near a hospital.

That's a good point that I hadn't fully considered.

I imagine there are probably three loose categories:

 - Those who get the sick, suspect they have the virus, but recover easily enough and never really know because the test wasn't available to them.

 - Those who get virus but show such mild symptoms that it never occurs to them that they had the COVID-19.

 - Those who get the virus but show no signs at all (unless I'm wrong about that being a possibility).

Either way, I don't think the powers-that-be have even come close to estimating the true cost and lasting impact that all these shut-downs are going to have. I have a number of friends who had opened their own coffee shops in just the past few years, and others who have been part of the rapidly-expanding microbrewery movement. I've no idea how they're going to survive this. These particular breweries were in-house-only operations, so they have no retail products on the shelves to carry them over.  The coffee shops can still offer takeout service, but none of the places that I'm referring to are even set up properly for that. They don't have drive-thru windows, so unless they setup a table on the sidewalk outside their business, they have a very limited capacity to serve their customers. And I've no idea what rules are even in place to determine what's allowed and what's not under those circumstances.

So how is this supposed to work? All landlords, and utilities, and town taxes, etc are just going to wave all fees? Not likely. Property evictions and utility shut-offs have been prohibited for now, but how much money in back-pay and taxes is going to accumulate? This is just completely uncharted territory.

Another friend of a friend owns multiple restaurants/bars and package (liquor) stores. The restaurants have had to close, but supposedly the sales at package stores has been astronomical that it's going to hold-over the other businesses...for now.

This is insane.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 21, 2020, 17:09
The very first case we had in my district was about 500 metres from where I live.................in a retirement home.
I guess that visitors come from all over the place and that someone had recently returned from Italy.
 I have been outside just 3 times this week. This afternoon I went for a walk around and everything looked absolutely normal, right down to a gang of kids playing football and others generally socializing. That's why I don't think closing schools is the greatest of ideas.
 A stark contrast to the big cities, where the changes implemented have had the biggest impact on the way of life.
 Not surprising therefore, that opinions differ.................at least for the moment.

Most people are starting to observe social distancing. Sadly there are still some who aren’t.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 21, 2020, 17:16
Pics of Central London this morning, a Saturday. Piccadilly Circus, Leicester Square, Carnaby St, Trafalgar Square...

https://www.facebook.com/657367045/posts/10156695896177046/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 22, 2020, 00:15
Could anyone more knowledgeable than I am tell me more about this chloroquine stuff or hydroxychloroquine?

Pr Didier Raoult of Marseille is an expert in this field and says it works miracle on coronavirus patients. It's a medication that is traditionally used to treat malaria. So it's also said that if Sub-Saharian African countries are pretty kept from the virus, it could be because they are used to getting such treatment to beat malaria and that's how they could be immune to it. Nothing to do with heat, they say ...

Could it be really a miracle stuff?

Or course, then, we'd have to discuss the side effects linked to that medication ...

Post Merge: March 22, 2020, 00:19
Pics of Central London this morning, a Saturday. Piccadilly Circus, Leicester Square, Carnaby St, Trafalgar Square...

https://www.facebook.com/657367045/posts/10156695896177046/

Reminds me of Eugène Atget's Paris photographies in the early 20th century

(https://www.unmondedaventures.fr/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/214982911_ab86753b3a_d1.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 22, 2020, 04:09
here in West Aus you can only get tested if you are displaying symptoms AND can prove that you have travelled in the last week or have had contact with someone already diagnosed.

essentially, even if you are displaying symptoms you cant get tested for half the time.

and then they wonder why our numbers are so much less than the rest of the country/world.


People are starting to take notice of the social distancing thing ... but still not closed schools or workplaces.  We are pretty heavy into mining and oil and gas though, and many of those companies are putting in work from home strategies and the like.  Still, its getting pretty real
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 22, 2020, 08:57
Could anyone more knowledgeable than I am tell me more about this chloroquine stuff or hydroxychloroquine?

Pr Didier Raoult of Marseille is an expert in this field and says it works miracle on coronavirus patients. It's a medication that is traditionally used to treat malaria. So it's also said that if Sub-Saharian African countries are pretty kept from the virus, it could be because they are used to getting such treatment to beat malaria and that's how they could be immune to it. Nothing to do with heat, they say ...

Could it be really a miracle stuff?

Or course, then, we'd have to discuss the side effects linked to that medication ...

Post Merge: March 22, 2020, 00:19
Reminds me of Eugène Atget's Paris photographies in the early 20th century

(https://www.unmondedaventures.fr/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/214982911_ab86753b3a_d1.jpg)

This drug has been approved for compassionate use in the US, anecdotal feedback suggests it helps and is now going into proper clinical trials.

By compassionate use, I mean when all else looks to have failed, as a final resort. Until the clinical trials have been completed.

In Africa, authorities have reported several overdoses of this drug already, sadly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 22, 2020, 09:08
it seem to have helped for some, yeah. But from those ~25 subjects there are also 5 who didn't complete the test though, as one died and four others showed symptoms so bad, that they couldn't continue.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 22, 2020, 09:51
here in West Aus you can only get tested if you are displaying symptoms AND can prove that you have travelled in the last week or have had contact with someone already diagnosed.

This is interesting because when the same thing happens here, everyone blames Trump. Lots of finger-pointing and blaming going on. But since this virus has successfully found its way across the globe, I don't see how blaming any politician helps anything. It would seem that Coronavirus was going to coronavirus no matter who our world leaders were.

Quote
People are starting to take notice of the social distancing thing ...
I was at my local park area yesterday that has miles of walking and bike paths. It was as crowded as I've ever seen it, and the parking lot was at capacity. It's been an unusually mild Spring for us this year, and maybe people are extra anxious to get outside with all the restrictions going into effect and because of the general state of things.

What surprised me though was the size of these groups. Definitely bigger than what you'd usually see. Instead of groups of two to four, which would be more typical, I was consistently seeing groups of 8 to 10, which is not normal. I don't know if entire families are sticking together and traveling as one, or if friends are just thinking that huddling in small groups is somehow consistent with "social distancing." It just struck me as really odd, and I've no idea what the explanation is.

If you didn't know there was a pandemic going on, you'd have found no clues in these groups of people.

I still don't see how the impending shut-downs are going to produce anything other than massive failures. They want to force everyone to stay at home, but then you won't even be able to buy paint or any number of other items to do work around the house unless you've anticipated every project and stockpiled ahead of time.

And sure, you can go outside and ride your bike, but what if you need some bike repair/maintenance as a result of that? Or if a kitchen appliance breaks and needs replacing, does this mean that any and all business will now have to be siphoned through Amazon? I mean, the list is endless of things one might need to carry on with life.

There were stories in the news yesterday of long lines of people at the gun stores, buying guns and stocking up on ammunition. Regardless of what one might think of America's gun culture, these are the exact types of restrictions that gun owners have always feared, but have also always been promised would never happen.

Oh, no, we don't want to take your guns, or put severe restrictions in place regarding purchasing and owning guns. We want only "common sense" laws on the books, so that the 'wrong people' don't have access to weapons. But for most of you, you can still have your guns.

It just never occurred to most people that the government would simply close all stores. This just feeds into the paranoia, and does nothing to promote a sense of trust or independence among the masses. These restrictions are actually making the situation more dangerous. Overbearing government control is precisely what half the country is consumed with on a daily basis. So when it starts to manifest right before their eyes, the inevitable outcome will be more division, less trust, and a validation of all their previous concerns.

No guns for you! Say the very same politicians who think that going to war is a clever idea.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 22, 2020, 13:29
Blimey, I’d completely forgotten. I must go to the gun shop and stock up on ammo before the lockdown.

What a bunch of morons.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on March 22, 2020, 13:38
We are pretty heavy into mining and oil and gas though, and many of those companies are putting in work from home strategies and the like.

Is that not just gardening?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 22, 2020, 14:10
as there was some talk in the media about China "returning to normal life" and so on... here are two little Twitter stories (one is in German, but with lots of pictures) about how it's handled when you arrive in Beijing at the moment (which - officially at least - never had more than 100 or so positive cases to begin with):

https://twitter.com/yangxifan/status/1241609742964764673

https://twitter.com/LukasHenselEcon/status/1240494951177302016
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Flo on March 22, 2020, 15:43
When we had 1,200 confirmed cases, the estimated number of actual cases was in excess of 50,000.
We may be able to use Germany's figures to estimate the number of cases per country.
Germany has 93 confirmed deaths and 24,000 confirmed cases. Netherlands has 179 confirmed deaths --> assuming 93 deaths per 24,000 cases this means our total cases should be around 46,000.

The UK has 243 deaths --> 62,500 cases.
Sweden has 21 deaths --> 5500 cases.

This assumes that
1. Germany isn't just at an earlier point in the outbreak which would mean deaths haven't caught up yet --> Germany had 16 cases mid Feb, UK 9 mid Feb, Sweden and NL both confirmed their first case later on, so if anything Germany is further along than the other three countries
2. Similar level of health care --> I think this is a fair assumption, Germany has a high ratio of intensive care beds but the other countries aren't at capacity yet so this doesn't influence the death rate yet
3. Similar demographic --> I had a look on the internet, seems Germany has higher % of elderly (70+) compared to UK and NL, similar to Sweden. So if anything, you'd expect Germany to have more deaths.
4. Similar culture --> in southern Europe, it is not uncommon for 3 generations to live in the same home, which means a bigger exposure and bigger risk for the elderly. This is not so much the case in northern Europe.

So I think we can conclude that the number of infected people is likely to be much, much higher than we know now in most of Europe, and even in Germany there will be many people carrying the virus with no symptoms. However those people are less likely to infect others so it is not as big of a deal except from a 'herd immunity' point of view.

And we can also conclude that Germany is doing a very good job controlling the outbreak. Perhaps their strategy can be compared to that of various Asian countries like Singapore. It is clearly an effective method but unfortunately it simply cannot be done in every country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 22, 2020, 16:45
We may be able to use Germany's figures to estimate the number of cases per country.
Germany has 93 confirmed deaths and 24,000 confirmed cases. Netherlands has 179 confirmed deaths --> assuming 93 deaths per 24,000 cases this means our total cases should be around 46,000.

The UK has 243 deaths --> 62,500 cases.
Sweden has 21 deaths --> 5500 cases.



 Factor in that the the UK is reliant upon something called the NHS and I make the figure to be:
UK 243 deaths --> 243 cases. :lol

My niece was telling me that there are supposed to be 2 or 3 cases in her small estate.
Trouble is that they haven't been tested, so know one knows for sure.
Another thing that could make an accurate count impossible is that we are in the middle of the Flu season.
If the numbers for flu in the UK are correct, then this year we are experiencing an anomaly, with extremely low numbers and a death rate about 1/100th of the norm.
This also doesn't seem possible to me, given that we have had perfect weather conditions for flu, this year.

 All the more interesting therefore, that according to the governments weekly reports, the number of reported flu like cases has double in the past week.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873734/National_influenze_report_19_March_2020_week_12.pdf
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 22, 2020, 16:58
The UK’s capacity is already at full, although a further 3,000 beds have been made available from the private hospitals. The NHS here is severely underfunded, that’s due to years of a government that would like to privatise it being in charge. Their privatisation plans will be set back by years because of this, thankfully.

This is a hard listen, from a few days ago.

https://youtu.be/tQD4B_hmdvo
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 22, 2020, 17:27
I must go to the gun shop and stock up on ammo before the lockdown.

What really surprises me is that these same people aren't already fully stocked on ammo, as this is the type of scenario that they're always so afraid of. That's the only thing that's really puzzling to me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: froome19 on March 22, 2020, 23:04
The new symptom which has just been announced in recent days is the loss of smell and taste. What makes this symptom particularly crucial is the fact that it is quite prevalent in people who are otherwise asymptomatic or showing relatively minor symptoms, and of course whilst the other symptoms tend to overlap with flu and other illnesses and can be quite common, this one is pretty rare meaning it is a very good indicator of the virus.

Interestingly, at least 3 very close family friends all mentioned a loss of taste and smell last week, including one friend whom we had over for dinner a few nights ago (this was before this symptom was announced). To me this confirms what we knew already, which is that the virus is much more prevalent than tests suggests (I have numerous friends who are showing the symptoms to various degrees, but to me this is a much more definitive symptom) and that the amount of asymptomatic people carrying the virus is very, very high. It is difficult to place these things, but I would guess that the virus is sweeping the population even quicker than what the medical advisers and scientists have said, just based on the amount of friends here in the UK who have said they have displayed the symptoms and have gone into self isolation.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 23, 2020, 04:23
The new symptom which has just been announced in recent days is the loss of smell and taste.

Fascinating. This is the first I've heard of this.How bizarre.

https://www.sciencealert.com/mild-covid-19-might-cause-a-lost-of-smell-or-taste (https://www.sciencealert.com/mild-covid-19-might-cause-a-lost-of-smell-or-taste)


Quote
Anyone experiencing a sudden loss of smell could be a "hidden carrier" of the coronavirus, even if they have no other symptoms, according to evidence compiled by leading rhinologists in the UK.

In South Korea, China, and Italy, about a third of patients who have tested positive for COVID-19 have also reported a loss of smell – known as anosmia or hyposmia – leading ear, nose, and throat experts in the UK have reported.

"In South Korea, where testing has been more widespread, 30 percent of patients testing positive have had anosmia as their major presenting symptom in otherwise mild cases," the president of the British Rhinological Society Professor, Clare Hopkins, and the president of the British Association of Otorhinolaryngology, professor Nirmal Kumar, said in a joint statement.

The professors said that many patients around the world who have tested positive for COVID-19 are presenting only the symptoms of loss of smell and taste – without the more commonly recognised symptoms of high fever and coughing.

"There have been a rapidly growing number of reports of a significant increase in the number of patients presenting with anosmia in the absence of other symptoms," the statement says.

"Iran has reported a sudden increase in cases of isolated anosmia, and many colleagues from the US, France, and Northern Italy have the same experience."

The lack of other recognised symptoms in these cases may mean they are unlikely to be tested and isolated, meaning they could be contributing to the rapid spread of the disease worldwide.

"These patients may be some of the hitherto hidden carriers that have facilitated the rapid spread of COVID-19," they added.

Young people may not present common coronavirus symptoms
Professor Kumar told Sky News that younger patients in particular may demonstrate only a loss of smell or taste, without demonstrating the more commonly recognised coronavirus symptoms of high fever and persistent coughs.

"In young patients, they do not have any significant symptoms such as the cough and fever, but they may have just the loss of sense of smell and taste, which suggests that these viruses are lodging in the nose," he said.

The professors called for anyone presenting the symptoms of loss of taste or smell to self-isolate for seven days to prevent the further spread of the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 23, 2020, 13:44
 Seems we are facing the same conundrum as Italy, as the government slam folks for talking a walk on the first sunny weekend in months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51999864

While apparently remaining virtually mute when it comes to public transport and commuters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52003076

When it is quite evident which is the greater threat to the spread of the disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 23, 2020, 13:48
Seems we are facing the same conundrum as Italy, as the government slam folks for talking a walk on the first sunny weekend in months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51999864

While apparently remaining virtually mute when it comes to public transport and commuters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52003076

When it is quite evident which is the greater threat to the spread of the disease.

And only the government can do anything about it. If employers insist employees have to go in, and if there’s no financial support for the self-employed, then there’s little any of these people can do.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 23, 2020, 14:54
Seems we are facing the same conundrum as Italy, as the government slam folks for talking a walk on the first sunny weekend in months.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51999864

I guess it's normal that it takes a couple of days to adapt to it. Over here it now resulted in a ban of all meet-ups of more than two people though.

There don't seem to be many countries left which plan to go different ways. Nicaragua and Belarus just seem to ignore it, Sweden as well, more or less. So we may be able to look at those for a comparison later on.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 23, 2020, 16:17
Over here it now resulted in a ban of all meet-ups of more than two people though.

I've heard of that happening elsewhere, too (Italy?). It just seems extremely harsh. Is that even enforceable?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 23, 2020, 16:33
And only the government can do anything about it. If employers insist employees have to go in, and if there’s no financial support for the self-employed, then there’s little any of these people can do.

You are up there in the heart of it, so know more about it than me, but didn't London transport cut services, which meant less trains and congestion at rush hours?
Then there is the question of what is an essential service.
Reading the comments underneath that article, some folk think that constitutes just health workers and police.
Then others point out the whole raft of other jobs that have to be done in order to keep things running. The most blindingly obvious been supermarket/food store workers.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 23, 2020, 16:55
I've heard of that happening elsewhere, too (Italy?). It just seems extremely harsh. Is that even enforceable?
In Italy you are not allowed to leave the house at all (unless for groceries or work - and most non-essential factories are closed now). Over here it just started and personally I have only been to the never-too-crowded botanical garden today, so I can't say for certain, but the way I understand it, people see it more as a "better than a complete lock down at least" kind of solution and try to stick to it.

And people who live together in the same household (families and stuff) are obviously still allowed to go outside together.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 23, 2020, 17:34
You are up there in the heart of it, so know more about it than me, but didn't London transport cut services, which meant less trains and congestion at rush hours?
Then there is the question of what is an essential service.
Reading the comments underneath that article, some folk think that constitutes just health workers and police.
Then others point out the whole raft of other jobs that have to be done in order to keep things running. The most blindingly obvious been supermarket/food store workers.....

Yes, fewer trains due to lack of staff doesn’t help.

But the key is still the number of companies who are non-essential who are forcing their staff to go to work, and of course the necessity for many many freelancers who are still getting no help at all financially. The employees can’t say no as they’ll lose their jobs.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 23, 2020, 18:47
We're getting an unexpected snowfall today. What started hours ago as just a fine mist has morphed into rather large and fluffy flakes that are accumulating. Today is the last day for non-essential businesses to remain open (they must close by 8:00 pm this evening, about five hours from now) so it must be weird out there. Normally the snow would slow things down, and schools would've been let out early. But with this being the last chance to make certain purchases, it's probably a bit chaotic.

The only thing I hope to get out of this is at least one nice day where I can ride around while all the shops are closed, with the roads mostly to myself. But the current weather forecast tells me that could be at least a week.

Looks like the Tour de Corona will just have to wait for me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 23, 2020, 19:51
 A lot of business falling between the two support packages. Quite worryingly this includes our major, high street retailers.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52004042

The countries leading bakery store chain is closing down tomorrow, which will inevitably lead to another stampede to hoard bread.

To cap it all, our numpty, bad hair day blonde leader is going to copy the other one over the pound, with a presidential like address to the nation in 45 minutes.
 First Brexit now Corona: he must be loving every ego boosting minute....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 23, 2020, 20:13
The size of the U.S. presents some problems that smaller European countries may not have to contend with. As some areas shut down, relatives seem to be simply migrating to different areas, and possibly bringing the virus with them.

I'm part of what's considered the Tri-state area, a very informal alliance between Connecticut, New York and New Jersey (although the term is also by other regions around the country). Due to the proximity and shared borders among us, the three corresponding governors worked closely with one-another to impose the same restrictions and shut downs, knowing full well that if only one or two state did, some people might simply relocate temporarily to one of the other states not imposing the restrictions, thereby subverting the efforts to isolate people in order to slow the spread of the virus.

I'm not really convinced that the concerns were valid though. I think they're operating on a very outdated mindset where large families would be spread across the three states. I just don't think that's the case anymore, although it may have been thirty to forty years ago.

However, where it very much is the case, is between the Tri-states and Florida. And now we're seeing the effects of that. A large portion of older retired people have summer homes in New York or Connecticut, and winter homes in Florida. Plus, Florida is a huge destination for retirement homes for people from the North East. So as we start shutting things down here (only four hours remaining!) people are, in fact, heading south in numbers.

Flights from from New York to Florida have been at capacity, and there's a fear that people are now bringing an increase of the virus there. When I first heard these reports I assumed it was all the older retired people heading south to either stay with friends or at their own second homes. But with businesses shut down, and schools closed, it's very likely a much broader demographic that's in transit.

So it may not be surprising if New York, which now leads the country in number of cases, is overtaken on the statistical charts by Florida. Which is exactly the type of "viral-shift" that the government had been hoping to avoid.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 23, 2020, 21:03
 Ho ho here we go:

This is not a lockdown, but it's as close as you can get to one without it being called a lockdown.  :lol

 From tonight, people in Britain will be allowed to leave their homes for only “very limited purposes” - shopping for basic necessities; for one form of exercise a day; for any medical need; and to travel to and from work when “absolutely necessary”
People are warned not to meet friends or family members who they do not live with
Shopping is only permitted for essentials like food and medicine, and people are advised to do it “as little as you can”
Police have powers to enforce the rules, including through fines and dispersing gatherings
All shops selling non-essential goods, such as clothing and electronic stores, are ordered to close
Libraries, playgrounds, outdoor gyms and places of worship are to close
All gatherings of more than two people in public - excluding people you live with - are banned
All social events, including weddings and baptisms are banned
Funerals are not included in the new restrictions
Parks will remain open for exercise but gatherings will be dispersed.


There will be a whole lot of brides-to-be crying their eyes out tonight.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 23, 2020, 22:08
And birdies-to-be.

Golf club is closed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 02:39
New York City as you rarely see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_b4s5hEYH8

Quote
Last few hours before NYC shelter in place goes into effect. A look at how desolate NYC is in its current state.

@5:19
"Is flipng Rapha open?"
"Rapha's open."  :D

@9:20 Central Park

@11:30 Columbus Circle, and a closer look at the bike and gear.

@15:45 Times Square  :shh

@17:15 Surfin' -- NYC style

@18:20 more Times Square

@19:25 Broadway (Desolate!)  :o

@21:54 Union Square

@28:20 Battery Park

@28:35 Brooklyn Bridge
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 24, 2020, 07:53
 Apparently, Sadiq Khan thinks that health workers, police and fire services are the only critical workers in the country, too. :fp

Big cities and rural areas are worlds apart, when these proposed measures are implemented.


 With the imminent postponement of the Olympics now assured, the BBC turn their attention to the huge problems faced with cancellation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52007137
 
 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 24, 2020, 09:24
Apparently, Sadiq Khan thinks that health workers, police and fire services are the only critical workers in the country, too. :fp

Big cities and rural areas are worlds apart, when these proposed measures are implemented.


 With the imminent postponement of the Olympics now assured, the BBC turn their attention to the huge problems faced with cancellation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52007137
 
 

Sadiq’s just doing his duty to try to keep as many people in as possible. It’s the sensible approach. He’s also been campaigning for the self-employed so that they can stay in too. Don’t forget his remit is only London.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 24, 2020, 09:46
The size of the U.S. presents some problems that smaller European countries may not have to contend with. As some areas shut down, relatives seem to be simply migrating to different areas, and possibly bringing the virus with them.
This is how it spread through much of Europe: Ischgl, a skiing destination in Austria had an outbreak - but instead of quarantining the whole valley the moment they learned, the authorities dallied around for a week. The result? Hundreds, if not thousands ski holidayers (and hotel staff fired & being sent home with less than a day's notice) going home with suspected or confirmed infections and spreading those in their home areas: Germany, Austria, Norway, Denmark, you name it.

Flights from from New York to Florida have been at capacity, and there's a fear that people are now bringing an increase of the virus there. When I first heard these reports I assumed it was all the older retired people heading south to either stay with friends or at their own second homes. But with businesses shut down, and schools closed, it's very likely a much broader demographic that's in transit.
You still have commercial flights operating?! :o
What the bloody hell is your administration doing? No, actually, don't answer that. :-x

This is not a lockdown, but it's as close as you can get to one without it being called a lockdown.  :lol
What we've had in Germany for over a week, in Italy for more than two weeks - and what I've been practicing since 10 March now.[1]
 1. Though, fair's fair, I work from home anyway, so there's next to no noticeable changes in my day-to-day life except the lack of bike races to write about.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Ram on March 24, 2020, 09:54
I'm almost starting to miss my commute. Almost
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 24, 2020, 10:49
INEOS petrochemicals to build a plant making hand sanitiser in Middlesbrough, set to be open within 10 days.

Handily they’ve already got the team of cycle couriers sorted to distribute it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 10:58
With the imminent postponement of the Olympics now assured, the BBC turn their attention to the huge problems faced with cancellation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52007137

The big takeaway:

Quote
According to well-placed sources, we may now be witnessing a 'game of chicken' over who blinks first between the IOC and the Tokyo 2020 organisers, due to the commercial and legal ramifications that could follow such a decision.

Top sports lawyer John Mehrzad QC explains that it will be crucial for litigation purposes who it is that effectively pulls the trigger, because whoever does could open themselves up to potential allegations of breach of the host-city contract.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 24, 2020, 11:00
UEFA appear to have managed to do it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 24, 2020, 12:43
and here in Aus they STILL refuse to shut down schools   :fp

though tonight the PM announced further restrictions to social gatherings.  Weddings can go ahead, but 5 people only.  Funerals can have 10.   Essentially - you can go outside for a run or a bike ride or something solitary, but no group activity.

the message is starting to get accross ... but with so many mixed messages from government it is crazy.  On Friday our state Premier encouraged people to still go to the pub for a drink or a restaurant for a meal as the local businesses need the business ... and then they got upset when people did and said 'oh no, people arent listening to us.

My daughter has 3 weeks of school left this term, and the government finally on Sunday night said that people could keep their children home if they really wanted ... so I kept her home starting today (Tuesday).  She went on Monday to get all her stuff and chat to her teachers etc.

A good 50% of her class did the exact same thing :lol      so today, got an email from the school saying they are closing on friday and going to online learning.   :yay 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 12:45
You still have commercial flights operating?! :o

Yeah, and I don't see that changing. There's been some very minor rumblings about possibly shutting down domestic flights, but that hasn't happened since 9/11, and perhaps the echoes of that are still lingering, and people just simply don't want the association.

I would like to think that with more people self-isolating, there would be less travel in general, but I really have no idea where the numbers are at in terms of airports. The problem is that only a handful of states have enacted full shut-downs of non-essential business. And people are still free to come and go as they please.

It seems increasingly likely that we'll look back, only to realize that an immediate, short-term, but very strict nationwide shut-down may have been the most effective option. But the longer this goes on, the notion of slowly tightening the knot further is not going to sit well with people. Frustration is already building, and the growing sentiment seems to be: OK, people are going to die. Does that mean we try to mitigate that by destroying the country, destroying business, and destroying the lives of those who survive? With each passing day, it will seem to be a more and more valid question. If the "solution" isn't workable, then it isn't workable. You can't stop the world and expect it to be there when you try to start it up again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 24, 2020, 12:56
UEFA appear to have managed to do it.

last week I read that the IOC has an insurance covering their loss of approximately 1.5 Billion Euro (or $, whatever) if the Olympic Games can't take place - which I guess doesn't come into effect if they cancel the event themself. The UEFA may not have had something like that?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 24, 2020, 13:41
Olympics are officially off until 2021
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 24, 2020, 14:23
Yeah, and I don't see that changing. There's been some very minor rumblings about possibly shutting down domestic flights, but that hasn't happened since 9/11, and perhaps the echoes of that are still lingering, and people just simply don't want the association.

I would like to think that with more people self-isolating, there would be less travel in general, but I really have no idea where the numbers are at in terms of airports. The problem is that only a handful of states have enacted full shut-downs of non-essential business. And people are still free to come and go as they please.

It seems increasingly likely that we'll look back, only to realize that an immediate, short-term, but very strict nationwide shut-down may have been the most effective option. But the longer this goes on, the notion of slowly tightening the knot further is not going to sit well with people. Frustration is already building, and the growing sentiment seems to be: OK, people are going to die. Does that mean we try to mitigate that by destroying the country, destroying business, and destroying the lives of those who survive? With each passing day, it will seem to be a more and more valid question. If the "solution" isn't workable, then it isn't workable. You can't stop the world and expect it to be there when you try to start it up again.

The problem with the mega capitalists running the UK and the US, amongst others, is that they’ll end up doing far more damage to people and the economy by trying to cut back on measures to stop the virus. They’re worried about the effects on the economy primarily, so they’re loathe to take an action that will obviously damage it, yet by not taking that action they will actually harm it significantly more as their actions aren’t sufficient and will intensify and prolong the problems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 14:41
Olympics are officially off until 2021

But without a specific date, correct?

What a mess. I feel for any athletes trying to time their peak conditioning. Now the summer schedual is shot, and many of them were likely planning on transitioning to a more normal life after the Games. So now what? Sorta, kinda train because the Olympics may or may not happen some time next year...maybe?

Some healthy and currently peak athletes now will likely not maintain that, whereas on the other side of the coin, there are probably some injured athletes that just got an unexpected second chance, should the Games actually take place at all. Curious dynamics.

It makes me think of how frustrating this must be for Nairo Quintana. Were we looking at the best version of him thus far at the start of this season? Was 2020 to be his year of redemption in an attempt to reclaim his Colombian crown? We will never know, and neither will he.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 16:24
You still have commercial flights operating?! :o
What the bloody hell is your administration doing?

Shows what I know.  :-x

U.S. airlines prepare plans to virtually shut down domestic service amid outbreak (https://www.marketwitch.com/story/us-airlines-prepare-plans-to-virtually-shut-down-domestic-service-amid-outbreak-2020-03-23)

Major U.S. airlines are drafting plans for a potential voluntary shutdown of virtually all passenger flights across the U.S., according to industry and federal officials, as government agencies also consider ordering such a move and the nation’s air-traffic control system continues to be ravaged by the coronavirus contagion.

No final decisions have been made by the carriers or the White House, these officials said. As airlines struggle to keep aircraft flying with minimal passengers, various options are under consideration, these people said.

But amid the quickly spreading pandemic and mandatory stay-at-home orders covering some 80 million U.S. residents, airline executives, pilot-union leaders and federal transportation officials said they increasingly view as inevitable further sharp reductions from already-decimated schedules in passenger flights.

U.S. airlines have already eliminated the vast majority of international flying and have announced plans to cut back domestic flying by as much as 40%. Travelers are staying home at even greater rates. The Transportation Security Administration reported that passenger flow at its checkpoints was down more than 80% Sunday from the same day a year earlier.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 16:42
https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1242190140757458945
 
"Now you're all marathon runners?!"  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 24, 2020, 16:48
https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1242190140757458945
 
"Now you're all marathon runners?!"  :D

He doesn't need to worry about Covid 19, that mayor is heading for a heart attack.
Those were just the men she was talking about, btw. :D

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 16:56
But without a specific date, correct?

What a mess. I feel for any athletes trying to time their peak conditioning. Now the summer schedual is shot, and many of them were likely planning on transitioning to a more normal life after the Games. So now what? Sorta, kinda train because the Olympics may or may not happen some time next year...maybe?

Some healthy and currently peak athletes now will likely not maintain that, whereas on the other side of the coin, there are probably some injured athletes that just got an unexpected second chance, should the Games actually take place at all. Curious dynamics.

It makes me think of how frustrating this must be for Nairo Quintana. Were we looking at the best version of him thus far at the start of this season? Was 2020 to be his year of redemption in an attempt to reclaim his Colombian crown? We will never know, and neither will he.

 It sure is a mess because all these postponed events, not just the Olympics, will be trying to squeeze onto next years already congested calendar.
 A number of sports have their pinnacle competitions next year.
 The athletics world championships for one. They have said the are prepared to move dates but to when? Peaking twice in one year as we know from cycling, is nigh impossible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 24, 2020, 16:57
He doesn't need to worry about Covid 19, that mayor is heading for a heart attack.
Those were just the men she was talking about, btw. :D

https://twitter.com/protectheflames/status/1242343497144942592
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 24, 2020, 18:46
Sweden is the same Flo, only those with very bad symptoms or Acute Respiratory infection are being tested. Not even medical staff. This is a Government decision. So our real figures I assume 3-4 higher so about 4000-5000

at least it's the same for everyone. Not even Greta Thunberg was tested :dizzy

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-HwpQkJqrc/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 24, 2020, 19:15
at least it's the same for everyone. Not even Greta Thunberg was tested :dizzy

https://www.instagram.com/p/B-HwpQkJqrc/

So she reckons she's had it?
That's excellent news for the 30,000 crowd of youngsters she attracted that squashed into the centre of Bristol, just  before the ban.
I said then it was irresponsible.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 24, 2020, 19:15
He doesn't need to worry about Covid 19, that mayor is heading for a heart attack.
Those were just the men she was talking about, btw. :D

Post Merge: March 24, 2020, 16:56
It sure is a mess because all these postponed events, not just the Olympics, will be trying to squeeze onto next years already congested calendar.
 A number of sports have their pinnacle competitions next year.
 The athletics world championships for one. They have said the are prepared to move dates but to when? Peaking twice in one year as we know from cycling, is nigh impossible.

To be fair though Huw, next year we’ll have two Giros, two Tours, two Vueltas, Euro 2021, The Olympics, The Athletics World Championships and two football seasons, as well as the additional Italy fixtures in the Six Nations.

I may stick a fiver on Gaviria winning MSR on both occasions, and Evenepoel winning everything else including the 3000m steeplechase and Euro 2021.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 25, 2020, 05:55
Hello world. :hi

(https://dw-wp-production.imgix.net/2020/03/GettyImages-1207987168-scaled.jpg?auto=format&fit=crop&ixlib=react-8.6.4&h=546&w=970&q=75&dpr=1)

NYC subway
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES1cMRUUcAENbPC?format=jpg&name=360x360)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES1cPD2UUAAKbo9?format=jpg&name=360x360)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETXSASEWkAEnQdP?format=jpg&name=small)

Times Square
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EThPMsdXgAIFcBl?format=jpg&name=small)

Wall St.
(https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200319&t=2&i=1505334317&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2020-03-19T112028Z_15011_MRPHP1EG3I114VHK_RTRMADP_0_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-STOCKS)

Chicago
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETvSFPeXsAcUiqi?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETvSFPfXYAAik4W?format=jpg&name=medium)

Expecting looters? :slow
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETm7zMuWoAA__KK?format=jpg&name=large)

Los Angeles  :o
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETpcaQ1XsAMJDqg?format=jpg&name=small)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETbRvssXkAACKnC?format=jpg&name=medium)

Bourbon Street, New Orleans
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETmGIj-XgAAVWx9?format=jpg&name=small)

Miami South Beach
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETpqJ1pWsAEgBcO?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 25, 2020, 06:09
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1240694496888639488


https://twitter.com/NewYorker/status/1241155193317789698


Barcelona

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETTNpasWoAAIMu_?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETTNpavXgAU9Fps?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETTNrLgXgAALIy2?format=jpg&name=large)


London
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETg7lKtXQAEyvuh?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETg7lLVXsAAjOuV?format=jpg&name=large)

Is this what your subways look like?!?!? They're nicer than most people's living rooms!
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETg7lOaXYAAQ1Vc?format=jpg&name=large)

(https://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200319&t=2&i=1505334346&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2020-03-19T112028Z_15011_MRPRC2YLF9ZZ1DI_RTRMADP_0_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-BRITAIN)

Sainsbury's store in Harpenden, Britain
(https://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200319&t=2&i=1505334334&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2020-03-19T112028Z_15011_MRPRC2HMF9U96QK_RTRMADP_0_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-BRITAIN)

Venice
(https://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200319&t=2&i=1505334330&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2020-03-19T112028Z_15011_MRPRC2DMF9DWB3G_RTRMADP_0_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-ITALY-VENICE)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 09:31
Yes, that’s what London Underground looks like, although they aren’t typical of the number of people using them at the moment. Police now vetting people at entrances at Underground stations as the government refuses to shut down non-essential businesses.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 09:50
I quite like Trentin’s idea of one GT with 7 days each in France, Italy and Spain, triple branded.

It would garner a huge amount of interest, which would aid with sponsorship for the whole of the cycling world, it would be the perfect event to restart the sport, and it would also bring the cycling community and organisers together.

Just imagine!

They could call it The Four Days of Dunkerque.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 25, 2020, 10:50
London's underground/subway/metro is much more modern than Brussels', just have a look:

(https://www.zupimages.net/up/20/13/1n55.jpg)

In fairness, we also have more modern trains but they rarely come around where I live. Really, these trains are just the same as those I took as a kid with my mum in the early nineties :S. That's a picture I took last Monday around 6pm. I did four stops and only one person (wearing a mask) got inside the same car as I did (at the 2nd stop).


A street in Brussels at 7pm last Monday. To be honest, you still a few cars going around. I waited a few minutes to have no car around at all, saying to myself that this could be a historical document. :D  Still needless to say, that street (Chaussée de Wavre/Waversesteenweg) usually has a much heavier traffic at 7 pm.
(https://www.zupimages.net/up/20/13/tstr.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 25, 2020, 12:45
a ~pdf study in Oxford (https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0) has now come to the conclusion, that there's the possibility that 50% of the (British) population has carried the virus already, so that herd immunity may actually be not far away. 3.5 million antibody test kits have been ordered to verify that study

Quote
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.

If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.

“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.

The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group indicates that Covid-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Like many emerging infections, it spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.

The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy. “I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” said Prof Gupta.

However, she was reluctant to criticise the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, because the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed and, even if it is correct, social distancing will reduce the number of people becoming seriously ill and relieve severe pressure on the NHS during the peak of the epidemic.

The Oxford study is based on a what is known as a “susceptibility-infected-recovered model” of Covid-19, built up from case and death reports from the UK and Italy. The researchers made what they regard as the most plausible assumptions about the behaviour of the virus.

The modelling brings back into focus “herd immunity”, the idea that the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned its unofficial herd immunity strategy — allowing controlled spread of infection — after its scientific advisers said this would swamp the National Health Service with critically ill patients.

But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.

Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, Prof Gupta said the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid-19.

To provide the necessary evidence, the Oxford group is working with colleagues at the Universities of Cambridge and Kent to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible, using specialised “neutralisation assays which provide reliable readout of protective immunity,” Prof Gupta said. They hope to start testing later this week and obtain preliminary results within a few days.

Given what you hear elsewhere, this sounds a bit like daydreaming, but if proved to be correct, it would be very welcome of course...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 13:26
It goes against everything else, including intuition and logic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 25, 2020, 13:29
 My local underground before it was closed.

(https://www.ncm.org.uk/system/uploads/image_content/image/1047/precis_mobile_high_res_P11325-_Miners_riding_the_paddy_train_to_work.jpg)


 :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 13:44
My local underground before it was closed.

(https://www.ncm.org.uk/system/uploads/image_content/image/1047/precis_mobile_high_res_P11325-_Miners_riding_the_paddy_train_to_work.jpg)
P

 :P

Mind The Slack.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 25, 2020, 14:17
It goes against everything else, including intuition and logic.

it's certainly not in line with what other studies suggested, yeah. On the other hand, if they are right about the assumption that the virus has spread in GB/Europe since January (basically without any restrictions for 2 months) , the (relatively) low number of confirmed cases so far doesn't make much sense as well... although 30 million compared to 8000 is quite a difference of course.

We will see, I guess. It probably can't hurt to have a look at it at least, no matter if it turns out to be right or wrong
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on March 25, 2020, 16:57
So she reckons she's had it?
That's excellent news for the 30,000 crowd of youngsters she attracted that squashed into the centre of Bristol, just  before the ban.
I said then it was irresponsible.

She developed symptoms 10 days ago: it is widely reported that the display of symptoms takes 7 days.  She left Bristol 26 days ago.  This is of no medical relevance to those who were in Bristol on 28th February.  And there were Premier League football matches continuing for another ten days after the gathering in Bristol, which no-one was denouncing as irresponsible at the time.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 25, 2020, 17:02
it's certainly not in line with what other studies suggested, yeah. On the other hand, if they are right about the assumption that the virus has spread in GB/Europe since January (basically without any restrictions for 2 months) , the (relatively) low number of confirmed cases so far doesn't make much sense as well... although 30 million compared to 8000 is quite a difference of course.

We will see, I guess. It probably can't hurt to have a look at it at least, no matter if it turns out to be right or wrong

If the Prince of Wales went contagious, as is being reported, on the 13th of the month and here we are 12 days later having the official announcement that he has: " a mild dose", it's certainly possible.
In fact, one wonders how many people have caught it from him, given he does tend to meet lots of people from all walks of life.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 25, 2020, 17:11
And there were Premier League football matches continuing for another ten days after the gathering in Bristol, which no-one was denouncing as irresponsible at the time.

Italian media now reports, that the Atalanta Bergamo vs Valencia Champions League match could have been a major catalyst in spreading the virus, by the way

https://www.worldsoccer.com/features/did-atalanta-v-valencia-contribute-to-the-coronavirus-409342
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 25, 2020, 17:22
About 53% of businesses in Cardiff city centre fear the coronavirus outbreak will lead to their permanent closure, a survey has found.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 17:46
About 53% of businesses in Cardiff city centre fear the coronavirus outbreak will lead to their permanent closure, a survey has found.

Completely depends on the level of support and the duration of everything. But, not good news at all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 25, 2020, 20:00
It appears that Sweden is adopting a more laissez-faire attitude towards the virus? :slow

Lockdown can wait: Sweden goes its own way (https://news.yahoo.com/lockdown-wait-sweden-goes-own-way-003057482.html)

Quote
Stockholm (AFP) - While most of Europe is firmly locked down in a bid to curb the spread of COVID-19, Sweden is taking a softer line, keeping primary schools, restaurants and bars open and even encouraging people to go outside for a nip of air.

This stands in stark contrast to the urgent tone elsewhere and has sparked heated debate whether Sweden is really doing the right thing.

"We cannot allow the human desperation in Wuhan and Bergamo to be repeated in Sweden. That would be a gamble that violates society's most fundamental principle: that every person has an inherent value," the editor-in-chief of Sweden's biggest newspaper, Dagens Nyheter, wrote on Sunday, calling for either tougher measures or more widespread coronavirus testing.
Quote
- 'Take reponsibility' -

Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, in a televised speech on Sunday, urged people to "take responsibility" and follow the government's recommendations.

Those include working from home if you can, staying home if you feel sick, practice social distancing, and stay home if you belong to a risk group or are over the age of 70.

Gatherings of more than 500 people have been banned -- compared to more than two people in Britain and Germany -- and the government has advised secondary schools and universities to close their facilities and conduct classes online.

On Tuesday, the government announced that restaurants and bars would only be allowed to provide table service to avoid crowding but stopped short of actually closing them.

Quote
- Experts rule -

Grilled by media about their apparently relaxed response to the pandemic, Swedish politicians respond that the government will take its cue from experts at the country's Public Health Agency.

The agency has yet to call for stricter measures, arguing that the elderly should stay home, not children.

"As soon as the Public Health Agency requests that the government make a decision, we will do it this quickly," Health Minister Lena Hallengren, snapping her fingers, said earlier this month.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 25, 2020, 20:19
Ahh time for the Stockholm correspondent.

1st thing Swedes trust their Government, so when they say work from home don't go to your holiday house, leave grand mothers alone. They do it.

Most Swedes don't really like others, if they don't know you from growing up or work with then you are dead to them.

2 things have caused the increase, returns from ski holidays and in many of the new Swedish living in multi generation housing. So I think 5 of the deaths were from Somalia who socialise on a whole different way to the ice cold Swedes.

Also they are still waiting for the trigger, basically human's will only do what they are told for a period of time, even the good Swedes. So we are getting closer to a lock down. But not yet.

The hospital I work with has 30 CoVid-19 patients ready for 50 more before it gets too much.

My guess is Easter with be the 2 week lock down. School holidays are planned as are trips sking and to the holiday house. They will not want city folks taking CoVid-19 to the country as the Hospital system will not cope
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 25, 2020, 20:22
Ahh time for the Stockholm correspondent.

That's where you are? How timely!  :)


Quote
Most Swedes don't really like others

Duly noted!  :D

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 25, 2020, 20:25
Hehe I am Australian though so it is just all wrong for me
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 20:38
Sweden are where the UK was a week or two ago, rather than doing anything different.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 25, 2020, 20:41
I was out doing some light shopping earlier and there are still sections of the stores that are totally bare.

And yet, as I've mentioned before, there seems to be a palpable calm over everything and everyone. People seem to be more polite and considerate of one another. It's most curious. And it is surprisingly reassuring.

Also, it looks like the government is going deliver on their stimulus package, which will reduce a lot of the anxiety that many are experiencing.

Most individuals below a certain level of salary are to receive $1,200, plus $500 for each child. This may very well be followed another payment of the same amount in a matter of weeks.

On top of that, they're guaranteeing most workers unemployment coverage equivalent to what they had been earning, for up to four months. Small businesses can also access interest-free loans, with 18 months to pay it back, to cover various operating expenses. That way both sides win: the employer can keep the business alive, while the workers still get paid until some sense of normalcy returns.

There are always some details to be hammered out, but everyone agrees that urgency is of the utmost importance, and it seems that they're just about to get this rolling.

It still amazes me that the government can magically make $2 trillion appear when they need it.  :S

In the meantime, they've forbidden landlords from evicting anyone, and utility companies from shutting anyone off.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 25, 2020, 20:49
Sweden are where the UK was a week or two ago, rather than doing anything different.

Not sure that they are as they had infection pretty much at the same time. Their graphs just look...............different.
Talking of which, it is starting to look as if the measures in Italy are finally having some effect on their upward curve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 25, 2020, 20:58
Maybe Joel. There has been over 24 000 tests done though. Which maybe not huge number but a little over 9 million people live in Sweden so not too bad
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 25, 2020, 21:02
I’m guessing they are less densely populated than where most of the cases are happening in the UK, so probably won’t see the same speed of growth.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 25, 2020, 23:20
I’m guessing they are less densely populated than where most of the cases are happening in the UK, so probably won’t see the same speed of growth.
I'd say! Sweden is basically empty:
It has ~1/3 the population density of Scotland.
Not the UK[1], Scotland. The part of the UK that is the emptiest.
And Sweden is yet three times emptier. :)
 1. it has less than 1/11 compared to the whole UK, and less than 1/18 compared to England. England: 424.3/m², UK: 270/m², Scotland: 67.5/m², Sweden: 23/m²
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 26, 2020, 07:32
does it matter though, if 85% live in urban areas anyway?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 26, 2020, 07:38
 Where I live isn't densely populated and borders onto the least populated county in Wales, yet my area is now a virus hot spot and described as having: 'the pattern is the same seen in Italy'.....


Wimbledon now considering postponing or cancelling, with a decision expected next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 26, 2020, 09:51
Wimbledon now considering postponing or cancelling, with a decision expected next week.

It would seem to be the perfect "social distancing" sport, though.

They've even got a divider between the players to remind them not to get too close!

Like golf, the players not only expect, but demand silence from the crowd when it suits them, so why not just give them what they want? With zero interruptions, it could be an exercise in pure self-indulgence.

I know that would never happen, but you have to wonder what television ratings would be like after so much isolation taking place across the globe. Might they have record numbers for viewership?

I don't watch basketball, but I was hoping to see a game or two with no crowds. I think it would've been fascinating to see how the players interacted under the circumstances, and to be able to hear the game in a unique way without all the crowd noise.

Of course I was also hoping that the collection of arrogant and entitled millionaires would get to experience the game without the fan adulation, as a stark reminder of just how meaningless it all is, but alas.

On a different note...

I am very curious to see if the UFC manages to pull off the upcoming bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson for what would be UFC 249 on April 18. If they can, it will be a massive pay-per-view success, perhaps their greatest to date—live audience or not. UFC president Dana White has vowed that the match-up will happen, one way or another. This, too, would be fascinating to see and hear without a live crowd. It would be most odd, but fascinating.

For those unaware, it's perhaps one of the greatest sporting events never to have taken place. Five years in the making, this fight has been cancelled four times now in the past due to mostly last-minute injury or illness from one of the two competitors. One the most highly anticipated contests in the history of the sport, it will pit the undefeated (28-0) lightweight champion Nurmagomedov against the enigmatic (25-3) Ferguson, thought to be the only man alive able to defeat him.

For martial arts enthusiasts, it's the fight that simply must take place, but one that fate has deemed otherwise. As it stands, the UFC is insisting that the event, originally scheduled to take place in Brooklyn, NY, will go ahead as planned but in a yet-to-be-revealed location. They all have also stated that it will be a "closed door" event.

If anyone can pull this off successfully, it's Dana White and the UFC. And I have full confidence that they will. What I'm most curious about at this point is how they will take advantage of not having a live audience. If they're clever enough, they could really explore the possibility of an unprecedented audio experience, as well as multiple camera angles simply not available to them when the line-of-sight of the audience has to be taken into consideration.

When you don't have to worry about blocking anyone's view, and there's no roar of the crowd, the result could be something truly unique in the history of televised sport, and I'm eager to learn how they might augment that viewing experience. With a massive global audience tuning in, it could be one for the ages: The Dagestani vs the Mexican-American.

(https://theringreport.com/images/articles/banners/15172.jpg)

(https://411mania.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ufc249-645x370.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 26, 2020, 10:10
does it matter though, if 85% live in urban areas anyway?

That is it Search

4 city areas

Stockholm Malmo Göteborg and Uppsala

Take away those population and areas and Sweden's population is very small. Hence why Easter is key here. They need to stop city folk going country
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 26, 2020, 16:50
Things are ramping up especially in Stockholm.

The hospital I work with now has 4 wards open for CoVid-19 patients. 24 hours after there was 1.

I was up there today in a ward above to CoVid-19 one, saw 2 patients being transported. Saw lots of beds in corridors waiting for patients.

All a bit sobering tbh

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 26, 2020, 18:34
Things are ramping up especially in Stockholm.

Wow, we've got our own embedded reporter on the front lines. Will be very interested to learn how things develop there.

Stay safe and healthy, jsg!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 26, 2020, 19:04
Not front lines more practice squad reserve

Unfortunately people still break bones etc and that's when I get called up.

But as waited for a lift a CoVid-19 patient came past and also waited for the lift. The Gentleman I am I let the older lady and her nurse ride up on their own and I got another lift. :D

The Nurse smiled at me as she went past in all her PPE. What a hero.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 26, 2020, 19:55
Not front lines more practice squad reserve

Unfortunately people still break bones etc and that's when I get called up.

But as waited for a lift a CoVid-19 patient came past and also waited for the lift. The Gentleman I am I let the older lady and her nurse ride up on their own and I got another lift. :D

The Nurse smiled at me as she went past in all her PPE. What a hero.

Just some nurse.

Did you get her number? Hero indeed as they always are. Claps at the door in 5 mins here for our wonderful NHS people.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 26, 2020, 20:58
 USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on March 26, 2020, 21:03
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52054745
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 26, 2020, 21:19
USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.

I suspect the thickoes, of which there are many, will still support the orange twit.

It’s always the same in the UK, the people who vote for the tyrants have the least to gain and the most to lose, yet they still do it. I despair.

Punch yourself in the face here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 26, 2020, 21:52
I suspect the thickoes, of which there are many, will still support the orange twit.

It’s always the same in the UK, the people who vote for the tyrants have the least to gain and the most to lose, yet they still do it. I despair.

Punch yourself in the face here.

Don't forget he reckons he'll have the virus in lockdown by Easter. #godcomplex
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 26, 2020, 22:02
he may realize that easter is a tad too early though. He should better save the world (well, America) a bit closer to the elections.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 26, 2020, 23:42
USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.

*usa :win *usa :win *usa :win *usa :win *usa :win

Without the Olympics, we'll take what we can get!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 27, 2020, 01:10
Daily update from West Australia

we have a bit of a standoff with some cruise ships at the moment.    While in various places, cruise ships cancelled cruises etc ... a lot of the boats came here because Australia didnt quarantine/still allowed cruises.   

So even after the Diamond Princess fiasco, we still have a LOT of people who got on cruises in early March :fp    and now there are ports everywhere who wont take them, and they are stuck.

In addition we had a situation where a cruise ship was allowed to dock last week in Sydney.  No health checks were done, the captain said 'no one is sick' and that was enough ... so all the passengers went home, and now it turns out that 200 or 300 odd of them had Covid19, and it was spread everywhere.

So we have 3 boats sitting off the coast.   
1 - left from here 10 days ago, is full of Australians and will be allowed to dock.  The West Aussies will be placed in quarantine on Rottnest Island (holiday island just off hte coast of WA, owned by govt and cleared of tourists to be used for quarantine)    Australians from other states will be flown straight home to self isolate

2 - a boat with mostly German passengers who has 7 passengers +ve with Corona Virus.  They have taken off 2 passengers for emergency medical treatment, but otherwise passengers are not allowed to depart.    Today they have finally worked out a deal with the German Govt to charter a flight home for these passengers ... but its tough when no one wants anything to do with them

3 - is a round-the-world cruise commenced in January - docked here a few days ago to refuel and resupply.  Govt said no one can get off, but you can refuel etc.  They did that, and said they were going on ....  but now they are not allowed to dock in Dubai or anywhere else, and are unsure if they will be able to get provisions.  It is very unclear whether or not there are sick people on the boat, but they obviously dont want to take the chance that there are, and take 3 weeks to get back to the Europe/UK where they left from - even if they can resupply, whcih isnt guaranteed.    But WA doesnt want them either ... so they are just sitting there waiting for someone to come up with a solution.

This brings out the absolute worst in people though.  You read hte comments on News articles and it is so depressing ... that so many would deny medical treatment or help to people just because they arent from here so 'not our probelm'.  :(   

Anyway - they are finally closing schools next week ... so that is a plus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 27, 2020, 06:51
https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 27, 2020, 06:56
I  had a discussion at work with someone.

That were saying it a flu

I disagree.... But the point of the story is

Say for argument we say it is.

Stats say that 6 people die every season.

So I said 6 people is 6 beers, at  BBQ you over 5 hours drink 6 beers. Have a good night wake up a little down and tired but ok ish.

Now I  give you 6 beers but you have 5 min to drink them and see what happens.

The guy maybe not the smartest looked at me and said am I the health system and a light bulb went off.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 27, 2020, 08:09
Total positive - 3731 - note: includes recovered cases and deaths ... and, because of how Quebec counts positives, includes probable but not confirmed by second test
Total negative - 142161
Total deaths - 39

(There are about 12000 tests waiting for results ... which may or may not shift the results ...)

Based on that:
disease incidence in the population - 2.55%

as you mention yourself though, there are "second tests". And third. And fourth, all for the same person. Sometimes every couple of days for people working in healthcare. So the numbers can not transfered 1:1 to get a full image of the population, I'd say.

The thing with the ICU capacity is also, how many of those are available, and how far can it be extended. In Italy for example, in this time of the year ~90% are/were taken anyway by other patients, which probably had a huge influence on the outcome. I don't know what it's like elsewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 27, 2020, 08:34
Germany is taking Italian CoVid-19 patients 47 at the moment
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 27, 2020, 09:13
Germany is taking Italian CoVid-19 patients 47 at the moment
yeah, some from France as well. We still have plenty of free capacities at the moment

https://divi.de/register/kartenansicht

(most hospitals are not sending over the data, so the numbers are not accurate, but you can get an idea from the map on the right, showing the free ICU beds per federal state from those hospitals which do)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 27, 2020, 11:21
Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 27, 2020, 11:24
Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

Damn, you were fast on the draw there, jsg. This story is just breaking, and you got the message out even before Boris!

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1243497891978756096

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 27, 2020, 11:28
Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

That would be the guy who has been basically telling us to do what I say, not what I do?
Hardly surprising then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 27, 2020, 11:52
Yes, there are more beds than at flu time of year.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 27, 2020, 12:16
Those are second test results - as second test is needed to confirm a case in Canada (except QC, where first test is enough - and then they remove numbers if the second is negative).

okay, didn't hear about that. In most other countries all tests just seem to be aggregated, no matter if there are one or ten of them for a single person.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 27, 2020, 12:35
One of those "fun" differences between countries that makes it hard for Joe Public to get a good picture of what's going on ... and sadly allows the misinformation that spreads on FB and the like to take hold.

I wouldn't call it all "misinformation", but there's always more than one side of it, sure. Last week for example there were those reports about Chloroquine being the wonder drug everyone was waiting for - and now, probably after selling millions of doses worldwide, there are other reports saying that it's in fact completely useless.

At the moment there's massive power and influence in the hands of very few people, which is a very dangerous situation of course. For sure there's reason to be sceptical, no one of us knows whether they are always aiming for good, ot if there's also personal interest in whatever way involved.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 27, 2020, 13:28
Sweden have changed rules a little bit still free. No more than 50 people together. But only being asked to stay home no lockdown yet.

All the social distancing stuff ofc
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 27, 2020, 13:40
Indefinite sporting lockdown then? Not going to happen as the BBC report that here in the uk, the cracks are already beginning to show:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52063085

Picking up on one line that also relates to pro cycling:

What the Premier League is reliant on is the goodwill of broadcasters and sponsors.

Also. The England and Wales Cricket Board could install coronavirus checkpoints and isolation units at grounds in order to resume the game behind closed doors.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/52063330
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on March 27, 2020, 22:05
Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

Apparently he has been put on one of them new Dyson ventilators and is picking up nicely
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 28, 2020, 04:36
This is a little too close to home!  :o

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8161191/DOCTOR-arrested-deliberately-coughing-workers-ignoring-social-distancing.html (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8161191/DOCTOR-arrested-deliberately-coughing-workers-ignoring-social-distancing.html)

Quote
Connecticut DOCTOR is arrested for deliberately coughing on his co-workers and ignoring social distancing while treating patients during coronavirus pandemic

 - Dr Cory Edgar, an assistant professor of orthopedic surgery at UConn Health, was arrested and charged with breach of peace on Thursday morning.

 - He allegedly coughed on two co-workers at the health center 'in close proximity.'

 - Witnesses told police that  they believe Dr Edgar 'was purposely disregarding space and safety concerns.'
Um, this is my hospital.  :S

This is where I ended up for four days when I had a staph infection in my leg after my bike accident in 2018 (I never did get around to sharing that story). It's also where I'm currently on hold as a dental patient, awaiting a crown after having had a root canal. My final appointment was to have been April 2, but of course they've bumped all such procedures for the time being. And my father was just a patient there last weekend for some heart issues.

I hadn't even heard about this story though!
I'm not sure it even made the local news. :slow
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 28, 2020, 16:37
A little read on Swedish model for CoVid-19 https://www.thelocal.se/20200328/explaining-the-science-behind-swedens-relaxed-coronavirus-approach

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 28, 2020, 16:48
A little read on Swedish model for CoVid-19 https://www.thelocal.se/20200328/explaining-the-science-behind-swedens-relaxed-coronavirus-approach



Today’s model anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 28, 2020, 17:11
Yep Joel fluid is the word
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 28, 2020, 17:19
I wouldn't call it all "misinformation", but there's always more than one side of it, sure. Last week for example there were those reports about Chloroquine being the wonder drug everyone was waiting for - and now, probably after selling millions of doses worldwide, there are other reports saying that it's in fact completely useless.

I just heard an interview of Dr Éric Menat, a French GP. He argued that chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) is not a wonder drug indeed but in the state of knowledge that we currently have, it's still the best treatment you may give to the patients. If a researcher comes up with a better treatment, he would be open to it but for the moment, it would be the best solution. However he also points out to the fact that in France, chloroquine is only administered to hospitalised patients with heavy symptoms and though it's painful to say, for them, it's too late. That's maybe how some might come to the conclusion that it is useless, as you say. Chloroquine should be prescribed to patients in the early stage of the disease when the symptoms are still mild. That's when it can work. That's what Pr. Didier Raoult of Marseille is doing, running counter to what is done elsewhere in France. Raoult also seems to be the only one testing massively. There might be a huge schandal in France regarding chloroquine. First, the "Haut Conseil de la Santé publique" (Council for Public Healthcare) disregarded Raoult's work for several months and then, it seems that their chloroquine stock had been ... robbed, mysteriously... However there really seems to be evidence that chloroquine does work to some extent. The Nice mayor Christian Estrosi, the same one who refused to have the Paris-Nice final stage in his town and a close friend of former President Sarkozy's had contracted the virus and claims to have recovered thanks to chloroquine and the treatment by Pr. Raoult. Now Prince Albert II of Monaco is calling him for advice, it seems.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 28, 2020, 17:26
Went out with Remco and Pauline F-P today.

(https://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd238/Joelsimister/90756159_10158389193256111_7320702529749123072_n.jpg) (https://s224.photobucket.com/user/Joelsimister/media/90756159_10158389193256111_7320702529749123072_n.jpg.html)

(https://i224.photobucket.com/albums/dd238/Joelsimister/90756159_10158389193256111_7320702529749123072_n.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 28, 2020, 17:36
Trying to upload a photo on here is nigh on impossible. Either too big, when it isn't, or too full. Any help gratefully accepted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 28, 2020, 17:39
A little read on Swedish model for CoVid-19

In other words: nobody really knows.

At least when this is all said and done, there will be some very interesting data for the experts to mull over and give a thorough review of.

FWIW: I never knew Sweden was so sparsely populated. Judging by the previous comments in this thread, it sounds like Vermont to me.
:slow

(https://www.nationsonline.org/maps/USA/Vermont-location-map.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 28, 2020, 17:42
9 million maybe 10 now days about 4 million live in Stockholm 7th biggest Euro country land area.

So yep all except for Stockholm lots of space
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 28, 2020, 17:51
FWIW: I never knew Sweden was so sparsely populated. Judging by the previous comments in this thread, it sounds like Vermont to me.
:slow

Yeah it absolutely is. My aunt is living in Southern Sweden. She got married with a Swede. I visited her twice up there, in Båstad, very small place but which still has an ATP tennis tournament. It's a few miles away from Helsingborg and Elsinore, Denmark isn't far away either. What was immediately striking for us Belgians - Belgium is the second most densely populated country in Europe, to the Netherlands - is how sparse the traffic on the road is. Quite enjoyable, I have to say. I've never been to the Swedish major cities. So this is still very much the memory I have from my trips to Sweden. That's why my aunt refuses to come back to Belgium, only on some odd occasions, to see the family. :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 28, 2020, 19:01
Trying to upload a photo on here is nigh on impossible. Either too big, when it isn't, or too full. Any help gratefully accepted.

(https://oi224.photobucket.com/albums/dd238/Joelsimister/90756159_10158389193256111_7320702529749123072_n.jpg)

Hmmm. I used your same source code plus the "img" tag from Velorooms. Not sure why yours shows the photobucket watermark and mine doesn't though.

Were you referring to this pic, or some other images?

Edit:
Actually, my html is slightly different from yours. If you quote my post you'll see the differences in code. I just right-clicked the "copy image address" from your source to get the link I used.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 28, 2020, 20:53
 I am beginning to think that maybe the best statistical pointer we have is the case of the Diamond Princess.
While it is of no use in determining the rate of spread etc, it should give us a reasonably accurate determination of the mortality rate, since we already know the specific number of infections.
 Given that the average age of those infected is high, the fact that there have only been ten deaths from over seven hundred cases, supports current reports claims that coronavirus is much less lethal than the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19.

 At the same time, it also supports claims that the number of actual infections is many times higher than those confirmed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 28, 2020, 20:55
I am beginning to think that maybe the best statistical pointer we have is the  case of the Diamond Princess.
While it is of no use in determining the rate of spread etc, it should give us a reasonably accurate determination of the mortality rate, since we already know the specific number of infections.
 Given that the average age of those infected is high, the fact that there have only been ten deaths from over seven hundred cases supports current reports claims that coronavirus is much less lethal than the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19.

 At the same time, it also supports claims that the number of actual infections is many times higher than those confirmed.

You may be right there mate, given (I assume) that the demographic on that was fairly old, average age I suspect around 70.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on March 28, 2020, 21:05
You may be right there mate, given (I assume) that the demographic on that was fairly old, average age I suspect around 70.

Thanks Joel, that's me brown bread then..
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 28, 2020, 21:18
Thanks Joel, that's me brown bread then..

It’d indicate that you only had a 10/700 chance of that Archie. Which is about the same as West Ham winning the World Cup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 29, 2020, 03:15
If only someone had seen a pandemic like this coming.  :-x

Event 201 - a global pandemic exercise (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/)

October 18, 2019, New York, NY


Quote
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. '

The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

Quote
In recent years, the world has seen a growing number of epidemic events, amounting to approximately 200 events annually. These events are increasing, and they are disruptive to health, economies, and society. Managing these events already strains global capacity, even absent a pandemic threat. Experts agree that it is only a matter of time before one of these epidemics becomes global—a pandemic with potentially catastrophic consequences. A severe pandemic, which becomes “Event 201,” would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions.


So did just nobody pay attention to this?  :S

(http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/sebin/l/i/event201-discussions.jpg)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174&

After watching that video, really it's just academics being academics.
What's most disturbing is just how quickly some of those geniuses jump to the tactic of, "We'll need to control, censor or shutdown the internet in order to remove 'Fake News' and reduce panic." As if doing so wouldn't create far more panic? How dumb are these intellectuals? They view humanity through such cynical lens, assuming we'll all be at each other's throats. I'm sure the lot of them never imagined Italians singing from their balconies in solidarity.

Then, after all their number crunching and prognostications, they actually missed the timeline by half. At the end the speaker envisions a virus reaching most countries after six months. Pretty sure we got COVID-19 to that level in three.

It seems that they just assembled a panel of people who weren't actually in a position to implement any of this. Like so many "committees" and "panels," in the end, it's literally all just talk.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 29, 2020, 09:13
So did just nobody pay attention to this?  :S

it was also one of the threats reported to the German Bundestag in 2013:

https://dipbt.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/17/120/1712051.pdf (page 55 onwards)

Those potential threats are classified in 5 groups though (I guess it's more or less the same in the US):

a) very unlikely (once every 10.000 years)
b) unlikely (once every 1.000 to 10.000 years)
c) conditionally probable (once every 100 to 1.000 years)
d) likely (once every 10 to 100 years)
e) very likely (once every 10 years)

"Pandemie durch einen Virus" was rated with a c). And to be honest, it's difficult to prepare for something, that may either happen tomorrow, or in 1000 years.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 29, 2020, 10:59
Yep the CoVid-19 even occurring is I am not even sure the odds.

1 virus probably in bats infects another type of animal, it then combines with another virus to form CoVid-19, and then that 1 animal infects a human.

Well that is the latest theory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 29, 2020, 11:57
And there is this not the 2 species theory https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/the-perfect-virus-two-gene-tweaks-that-turned-covid-19-into-a-killer-20200327-p54elo.html

But bats still
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 29, 2020, 14:33
And to be honest, it's difficult to prepare for something, that may either happen tomorrow, or in 1000 years.

So you're saying we may have to wait until 3020 for the next TdF?  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on March 29, 2020, 14:49
So you're saying we may have to wait until 3020 for the next TdF?  :o

Valverde’s already said he’ll be targeting a podium.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 29, 2020, 15:14
Valverde’s already said he’ll be targeting a podium.
He'll have to battle Chris Horner for the top step.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on March 29, 2020, 15:47
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html

Will this mob never learn.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 29, 2020, 17:01
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html

Will this mob never learn.......

Quote
The correspondent who visited Dongguan said: 'The markets have gone back to operating in exactly the same way as they did before coronavirus.

But of course. Why would anyone expect it to be otherwise? It would require a paradigm shift of such magnitude that it's not likely to ever happen on its own. And certainly not in the course of just a few weeks. Something as deeply culturally embedded as these practices would only change if the culture changes.

Imagine Italians being told that wine production is hazardous to global health. Imagine Central and South Americans being told to stop harvesting and producing coffee. Imagine expecting the French to stop producing cheese in the course of just a few weeks.

As an aside, I've always viewed much of the traditional Chinese culture—as depicted with those cats in cages, awaiting slaughter—to be one of widespread sociopathy. There's just something deeply troubling about many, many aspects of their behavior. Such a culture is not likely to change one bit over a little virus and a few weeks of inconvenience. Should anyone find my perspective to be bigoted or racist, I'm totally fine with that. There's something very wrong with many of those people and the culture surrounding them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 29, 2020, 18:43
Is it possible that in your countries, the official death counts are underrated?

Because in France, so far, only the people who had died in hospitals were taken into account. It wasn't until last Friday that the "Haut Conseil de la Santé publique" made it clear that the figures only included hospitalised cases.

Many of course had died in retirement homes or else at home. In several cases, you didn't even have any post mortem testing, so that you'd never know if those people had the virus or not.

Next week they say they will include those who pass away at retirement homes.

We all have doubts about the Iranian or the Chinese counts but even in our democracies, there is doubt.  :S
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 29, 2020, 18:53
it's hard to say, I guess, with the different ways of counting. Italy for example "admitted" that everyone who dies in a hospital is counted now, no matter what - which I guess makes sense, as they are better off using their ressources for other things than double checking who died because of what desease exactly. But it makes it difficult to compare of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on March 29, 2020, 22:00
But of course. Why would anyone expect it to be otherwise? It would require a paradigm shift of such magnitude that it's not likely to ever happen on its own. And certainly not in the course of just a few weeks. Something as deeply culturally embedded as these practices would only change if the culture changes.

Imagine Italians being told that wine production is hazardous to global health. Imagine Central and South Americans being told to stop harvesting and producing coffee. Imagine expecting the French to stop producing cheese in the course of just a few weeks.
The difference, though, is that every Italian drinks wine, etc.

Yes, the Chinese are 'famous' for eating anything possible (and then some) - but most of the 'exotic' species are apparently only consumed by a thin layer at the top of society, as a status symbol: Importing exotic animals (often illegally, in contravention of worldwide bans on trade with these species) and keeping them alive until they're sold for consumption, isn't cheap.

Of course, the so-called "1%" of the Chinese population would be approximately 15 million people, so ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 30, 2020, 05:06
https://twitter.com/stuckinoregon/status/1244473100206395393?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 30, 2020, 10:47
Since it's a rainy, cold Sunday, and I already went for a run this morning, I've been having a look and a play with some numbers ...  :angel :angel

If we take out China - who is effectively in the "past tense" phase of covid - there are currently about 610,000 cases (active, recovered and deaths)

Those cases are concentrated in seven countries - US, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, France and the UK.

Those seven countries account for approximately 75% of all of the world's cases - or about 461,000 cases

Yet, those same countries only account for 9% of the world population or about 738 million people out of a total 7.8 billion!

(Take out part of the US - since covid doesn't seem to be impacting the warmer south; just the colder north - and that proportion of population is even less, for a relatively minor impact on case counts.)

Which means that the other quarter of cases (150,000) are clustered amongst the remaining 91% of the population - or about 7 billion people ...


Just made me think a bit ...

... and not just about policy responses and media attention ... but also about questions of first world vs third world; northern hemisphere vs southern; and old world (order?) vs new world ...

Also makes me wonder if we'll really see an acceleration of the rise of "Asia" (which is typically defined in that discussion to run from the Middle East to Oceania)??

the truth is that there are MANY MANY cases in many other countries - they either are not testing, or are not counting/reporting to WHO.

The countries listed are merely the ones who are actually keeping medical records ...

Indonesia for example are in a world of pain right now ...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 30, 2020, 10:48
https://twitter.com/stuckinoregon/status/1244473100206395393?

that we were getting (and still are getting) totally meaningless and made up info from China about this was never in doubt.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 30, 2020, 11:55
no need to worry anymore

https://twitter.com/hemantmehta/status/1244344119545208834
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 12:34
(take out part of the US - since covid doesn't seem to be impacting the warmer south; just the colder north - and that proportion of population is even less, for a relatively minor impact on case counts.)

I'm not sure that's true. It's reeking havoc in the south in places like New Orleans, and Florida is likely to be one of the next epicenters. Plus, it hasn't been very cold in the north this year. It's been extremely mild with a very early arrival of Spring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 12:38
Sometimes the Internet outdoes itself.

https://twitter.com/JewelsJourneys/status/1244258100653293568
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 13:25
Relative to their populations, that's nothing - and especially not compared to northern states.

The numbers in Florida will be the ones to watch closely. A lot of people have been traveling there, especially from New York, which currently has the most cases of the virus. It's one of the main reasons that Trump was threatening to quarantine of all New York state. Plus, you had Spring Break with kids coming in from all over the country, which presented its own set of problems.

The governor of Florida has been particularly problematic in his response as well. He was very, very slow to react to the influx of possibly-infected people, so local mayors had to take it upon themselves to close beaches, etc. The governor has since changed his tune a bit, but his lag in response time is sure to prove disastrous.

More significantly, though, is the aging population of Florida. It's long been a destination for retirement, so most people are expecting the virus take a very serious toll on the elderly, of which there are significant numbers.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 30, 2020, 14:01
 So, many of the Floridian cases are really Northern generated cases?
There does seem to be mileage in the idea that the virus does not function well in warm climates.
 Again, I was using Worldometer as the source.


 I have to say that some of the restrictions being placed on individuals do seem to be cosmetic PR to me and even counter productive.
A quick, or rather slow visit to the local supermarket confirmed my suspicions.
Instead of a stealthy visit for the very basic essentials, my shop lasted three times as long as it would have, queuing behind a line of trolleys, all spaced out by the now compulsory 2 metres.
While waiting my turn to enter the almost empty shop, it occurred to me that the primary source of infection would be via the handles of trolleys or hand baskets. ( I have been using my own bags for the last two weeks)
These trolleys are used time and time again, without any form of sterilisation, or even a quick rub down of said handles.
Not much point in being spatially aware and wearing face masks, while pushing these germ magnets around, with bare hands....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 14:07
Speaking of border skirmishes...

In all the bizarre events that have been unfolding around the coronavirus, the following is near the top of the list. I keep on claiming that "I never imagined I see (X) in my lifetime." But I really, really never imagined this.

I previously mentioned the "Tri-State" area, of which I'm a part, as it consists of Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. Trump had recently threatened a mandatory quarantine of the area, to slow the spread of the virus. He has since rescinded that, and instead issued a "strong travel advisory."

Now, no one really believes that such a quarantine would have even been possible, not to mention the questionable legality of it. For one, there are just far too many roads connecting the those state to ever hope to enforce such a policy. Also, the State police and National Guards of each respective state report, and answer to, the governor of their state, not the President. But it did set off a series of cultural alarm bells. Pitting states against states isn't really something that's happened here since the Civil War of the 1860s, but a revival of that mentality is slowly creeping to the surface.

That thing that I never imagined I'd see?
Rhode Island—the smallest of all the states, and which borders Connecticut just to our east—has recently issued a restriction on travel to their state from anyone coming from New York. The governor of Rhode Island was very firm in her assertion that anyone with New York license plates would be stopped at the major bridges and other significant points of entry. Seeing as New York is such a hotspot to the coronavirus, she is hoping to halt the spread at her border.

They have actually brought in the National Guard to assist with local police, not only in traffic stops, but actually going door-to-door to those locations where people from New York are thought to own secondary properties or places they may be temporarily staying. From what I understand, one of the main objectives is to insist the these people self-quarantine for a period of 14 days. They're not shipping them back to New York, or detaining them, yet, but who knows what lies ahead.

Seeing military police setting up border controls between neighboring states is a first in my lifetime. It's really unprecedented. Now the governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, has threatened to sue Rhode Island over the policy, but I can't imagine he'll have much success with that. He feels that it's an unconstitutional restriction on the travel of New Yorkers, but individual states do have certain rights, and the power to enforce those rights. It's a very murky, and largely untested, legal area though.

It's somewhat amusing that Rhode Island hasn't yet been so strict about Connecticut residents, as we're the ones who actually share a border, and New Yorkers would mostly have to go through Connecticut to even get to Rhode Island. But it's creating a lot of bad blood between the two.

Inter-state friction like this is just something I've never experienced. It's really quite odd, and totally unfamiliar. The borders between the states are about as informal as you'll find anywhere, but that seems to be changing as the very definition of such things is being pushed to the extreme. It just seems that whatever restrictions they hope to enact, it will all turn out to be too little, too late.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 14:16
While waiting my turn to enter the almost empty shop, it occurred to me that the primary source of infection would be via the handles of trolleys or hand baskets. ( I have been using my own bags for the last two weeks)

These trolleys are used time and time again, without any form of sterilisation, or even a quick rub down of said handles.

Not much point in being spatially aware and wearing face masks, while pushing these germ magnets around, with bare hands....

Oh, the cleaning of those things is a big priority around here. Most people are wearing gloves before even touching those handles of doom, and store employees will frequently be seen wiping them down with chemically-treated towels or spray.

Even on a good day, I always worry about germs on grocery carts. I treat them like gasoline pumps: filthy germ factories that if touched without gloves will necessitate a thorough washing of one's hands as soon as possible, or at least the use of hand-sanitizer. Yuck.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on March 30, 2020, 14:27
Your assertion that the countries tested are the only ones keeping records is false.

For example NZ, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Japan, Singapore are all well known to be keeping records, but are not on that list ...
In fact, most of Europe isn't on that list ...

(Yes, all countries are under-reporting ... but that's more to do with the lack of severity of symptoms for the vast majority of cases than medical system quality ...)

Also be interested to know a source for your comment on Indonesia - not to challenge, but to educate myself if that is the case ...

definitely some countries have significantly less cases than others. 

Japan and Singapore both have responded very well to the crisis.  They did have major issues with the SARS epidemic a few years ago, and their reaction to this was put in place early, and it has certainly kept things down for them.

Australia too is pretty fortunate - we did quarantine and close off flights from China very early.  Most of our early cases actually came from Europe and the US ... so we are a couple of weeks behind the main European situation ... and so putting into place the social restrictions has been a bit more successful.  Wait and see on that one.

Indonesia - my only knowledge is from friends and family returning from Bali and Jakarta - saying the situation in both places is not good.  No social distancing or any measures in place, completely business and usual - and the hygene in many areas is not good to begin with.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 30, 2020, 15:56
Tough day for the Swedish experiment. 36 dead and cases rising. Not massive number until you consider cases per million
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 16:25
So, many of the Floridian cases are really Northern generated cases?

I don't know if they're even sure of the percentages, because they just don't have the necessary tracking data. But the influx of people from New York is certainly not helping. I have relatives in Orlando, where Disney is located, and it's getting worse down there by the day.

I think they're dealing mostly with projected estimates, which may turn out to be better or worse than what the models show. It's a bit of a waiting game at this point. Of course the numbers may be convoluted by an already-aging populous that would've had a certain death rate regardless.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 30, 2020, 16:45
Tough day for the Swedish experiment. 36 dead and cases rising. Not massive number until you consider cases per million

 Interesting to compare to the UK, as both countries had the first case on January 30th.
Sweden 14 deaths per million. Cases per million pop: 399
UK 21 deaths per million. Cases per million pop: 288

So, all in all, it seems that the softly softly approach hasn't done too badly.......yet.

Also, Spain also had their first case on January 30th.......
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 30, 2020, 16:52
It does help that most Swedish people practice social distancing as a norm.
:lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 30, 2020, 16:57

It will be 2022 before the TDF gets back to normal as the Olympics again steals it's 2021 slot.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52091224


Also:
The World Athletics Championships, originally set to take place in Oregon, USA, between 6 August and 15 August 2021, will now be postponed until 2022.
If that is moved back exactly a year it would clash with the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham which is set to take place between 27 July and 7 August.
:fp
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 30, 2020, 17:38
Commonwealth Games and Euro Championships are not universal events. So the best athletes would peak for the Worlds. Anyway if Commonwealth Games keep the same slot, they can still arrange things. For instance, if the 100 m at the Games is held on Day 1 (27 July), you can easily have the 100 m Worlds on August 7, etc. Besides, you won't have the same competitors.

But well, at least Greg remains Olympic Champion for one more year. :win
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 30, 2020, 17:50
It will be 2022 before the TDF gets back to normal as the Olympics again steals it's 2021 slot.

I was wondering why they're stubbornly adhering to the "Tokyo 2020" moniker, but I suppose the obvious answer is that they've already got tons of promotional and souvenir material already on the shelves, not to mention all the graphics and logos that are already in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 30, 2020, 22:52
But well, at least Greg remains Olympic Champion for one more year. :win

O Rei da Vista! :win

I am definetly biased as I used to live there, but the Rio Olympics definetly was one of the better races of the last 10 years, worth rewatching in these sports-starved times.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on March 30, 2020, 23:02
In other sports, the cross country skiing season has come to an end, but without the traditional classics here, but somehow they managed to start a competition as to who could go longer (solo, and strava does the recording).  I think last week the 24 hour world record was at 100 something kilometers and now someone did 571 kilometers albeit over 31 hours, which qualifies as utter madness, considering the resistance is a bit higher than the rolling resistance in cycling this comes close to Milano-Sanremo and back again .
A lesser-know national level athlete who had the record for a few hours is reported to have suffered from lost eyesight and there are serious people like the national team coach in the media warning that youth athletes shouldn't try this as it is expected to be counterproductive to their development.
.....
I guess no-one told Aleksander Kristoff about that...very long rides was a part of his training as a teenager.

It has been quite fun to follow this development, there are reports of skiers meeting other skiers in the woods and no-one wanting to say what they were up to as they were trying to sneak the new WR from each other etc...  :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 31, 2020, 00:23
But well, at least Greg remains Olympic Champion for one more year. :win

Good catch.
He might make for an interesting footnote, among others from 2016, as the only athletes to ever hold the same Olympic title for five years!

(To be followed by the next round of Gold medalists who will only hold it for three years.) 
:-x
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 31, 2020, 00:38
no need to worry anymore

Not so fast!  :P

It turns out that there are legal limits to stupidity. Yes, even in Florida. :fp

(This one will earn double honors by appearing in the "Florida" thread as well.  :D)

Florida Pastor Arrested for Violating Rules Amid Coronavirus Outbreak (http://)

Quote
Florida officials have arrested the pastor of a megachurch after detectives say he held two Sunday services with hundreds of people and violated a safer-at-home order in place to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

According to jail records, Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne turned himself in to authorities Monday afternoon in Hernando County, where he lives. He was charged with unlawful assembly and violation of a public health emergency order. Bail was set at $500, according to the jail's website.

(https://cdn.christianpost.com/files/cache/image/13/85/138537_w_450_450.jpg)

(https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1687,w_3000,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_1044/fl_lossy,q_auto/v1585594619/200330-sommer-fl-sheriff-howard-browne-tease2_ha4etx)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 05:42
Just watched a report looking at CoVid-19 from a statistical set. Spain is doubling the death rate faster than Italy did at the same period.

Sweden according to the report should see peak late April early May
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 31, 2020, 10:38
in Germany the situation is still "calm" at the moment, regarding the health care. We have around ~7000 infected treated in hospitals, ~1500 of those in intensive care (which equals around ~3 patients per hospital, and less than one in ICU) - but it's not what he government or media (unusually closely following the government) makes you believe. A world of fear is created, meaning the majority of people in Germany (55%) now even asks for stronger measurements to be taken.

I don't want to neglect the danger of the virus, which certainly exists, but personally I really, really struggle to put it into perspective, and to be honest, I begin to become more worried what the World may turn into. At the moment moment we (well, some) are still pointing at Orban, who grabbed the first opportunity to turn Hungary into a dictatorship, but on the other hand, basic human rights are heavily violated over here as well, and we are likely about to get a new law which allows the state to expropriate people and force them to give up their free choice of employment, if they have any medical background that could be of use.

It's not so much the economical situation I fear about, but more politically, and also about the society. The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?linkId=85439961) had an interesting (although very long) piece about it, also having a look at the potential aftermath of this:

After infections begin ebbing, a secondary pandemic of mental-health problems will follow. At a moment of profound dread and uncertainty, people are being cut off from soothing human contact. Hugs, handshakes, and other social rituals are now tinged with danger. People with anxiety or obsessive-compulsive disorder are struggling. Elderly people, who are already excluded from much of public life, are being asked to distance themselves even further, deepening their loneliness. Asian people are suffering racist insults, fueled by a president who insists on labeling the new coronavirus the “Chinese virus.” Incidents of domestic violence and child abuse are likely to spike as people are forced to stay in unsafe homes. Children, whose bodies are mostly spared by the virus, may endure mental trauma that stays with them into adulthood.

After the pandemic, people who recover from COVID-19 might be shunned and stigmatized, as were survivors of Ebola, SARS, and HIV. Health-care workers will take time to heal: One to two years after SARS hit Toronto, people who dealt with the outbreak were still less productive and more likely to be experiencing burnout and post-traumatic stress. People who went through long bouts of quarantine will carry the scars of their experience. “My colleagues in Wuhan note that some people there now refuse to leave their homes and have developed agoraphobia,” says Steven Taylor of the University of British Columbia, who wrote The Psychology of Pandemics.


As the article points out, also the opposite could happen, but at the moment, I see a very one-dimensional look at things, spreading fear, basically disallowing any alternative look at things, and I am not sure if this is the right way. In the western world, the virus is not something we can fight anymore like Taiwan or Singapore did, but something we need to learn to live with - and I struggle to see the development of strategies to do so.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 11:01
That Hungaria issue stuck with me as well search. Do not think it will be the last either. Think we will see a few more do the same
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 31, 2020, 11:43
 I share your sentiments, Search.

I think the numbers are being used as a scare tactic to enforce this indefinite lockdown. Certainly some of the prediction model numbers for no action are quite scary.
However I also really struggle to put it into perspective, knowing that already this year, there have been over 3.2 million worldwide deaths from communicable diseases.

I have no doubt we are storing up massive mental-health problems for later in the year, especially if individuals are forced to spend the entire Northern Hemisphere Summer under lockdown.

As for the the state forcing people to give up their free choice of employment, if they have any medical background: my niece, who is a teacher and therefore currently tutoring for home, has already been given a questionnaire to that effect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 31, 2020, 12:17
That Hungaria issue stuck with me as well search. Do not it will be the last either. Think we will see a few more do the same

already now, in Thailand or Turkey for example you can be thrown to jail if you say or write something against the government, labelled as ban of "spreading fake news". Of course, those are not (really) democratic countries, but it's still a bit scary.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 13:29
407 new cases and 34 deaths.

Today's press conference
Please stay home no Easter travel but no lockdown yet.

But now no visits to old people homes.

Phase 2 testing which is test more 34 000 tests have been done.

I know you have to be at the point of not being able to breathe to get tested.

So those that do are older or risk group only.

5 hospital staff are now in intensive care with CoVid-19 in Stockholm.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 31, 2020, 16:50
 Have to say that I appreciate this thread more than any other on respective bike forums, atm.
Much more general discussion and from around most of the Globe, too.
I am finding some days harder than others, having gone from the terrible storms and floods of January and February, straight into this mess. All of which means that two months of pretty much self imposed isolation, immediately followed by this forced isolation.

Now today I have a question, since our government has me scratching my head.
If a person (presumably elderly) dies at home, nowadays without seeing a doctor, how can they accurately determine whether it was Covid 19 related?
I ask, because they now intend to add these deaths to the UK's total.
I can only figure out two ways, both of which seem to me to be a waste of precious resources at a time when the health system is stretched.
It's just that I sense that our figures are about to get massaged.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 17:06
I assume autopsies are still happening for home deaths. It will take about 3 minutes for a diagnosis. Just look at the lungs.

No knowledge, but ultrasound is being used to see the 3 stages of lung damage and diagnosis without blood tests. So autopsies should be similar
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on March 31, 2020, 18:28
An interesting article from an epidemiologist in NZ ...

The parts that I found interesting were about the relative effectiveness of hand washing, "cough etiquette" and isolation ...

JSG - his comments are perhaps interesting in light of your current experience in Sweden ...?

Will leave comments there and let folks read and form their own opinions either way on what he says ...


https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat?fbclid=IwAR1XDF7vKwMTJ_PV1nCx57wKMVGA57qB1-IMX7CVw8Uv-RIL8UIry-3xif4 (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120666809/do-the-consequences-of-this-lockdown-really-match-the-threat?fbclid=IwAR1XDF7vKwMTJ_PV1nCx57wKMVGA57qB1-IMX7CVw8Uv-RIL8UIry-3xif4)


 Nice to see him use the Diamond Princess for the same reason as I suggested up-thread and draw the same conclusion.
 Haven't Italy have been attributing all hospital deaths to Covid 19 during this period?
I think I read that somewhere.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 18:33
It is a weird one Kiwi because obviously you don't want anyone to die, but they do. Sure many die of various reasons.

Sweden has still been hit pretty bad economically 9 % latest unemployment figures and record rates of people being told that they have no job.

Honestly I don't know the answer of what is looking like the best way forward yet. I assume we have to wait until the end of the year to compare deaths from year to year.

CoVid-19 will kill a lot of people I think, maybe just as many will die because they didn't get correct medical care, but better air quality may mean less deaths.

The whole thing is just an odd conversation.

Sweden's policy is how referred to as the reverse Elephant theory.

Older Elephant will circle younger Elephant to protect them. In this case if younger get infected and survive the virus will stop spreading as it can not find new hosts.

There will be casualties what ever you do.

By the way the Government approval rating is going up here so people are backing the plan
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 18:40
So as you know we at my work go up to the Hospital a lot. So a work colleague was up to see a patient on Thursday, today he went back to follow up only to find the patient has been moved to the CoVid-19 wards
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on March 31, 2020, 18:41
An interesting article from an epidemiologist in NZ...

well, a bit one-sided though, and interpreting numbers a bit roughly, by the look of it.

Time-series plots of overall deaths in European countries show surprisingly low rates for this time of year, even in heavily affected countries, such as Germany, Spain, France and Italy, even in the over-65 age group. Italy has the most dramatic increase, but no higher than occurred during the same season two years ago, is what he writes, for example.

Flu season is alraedy over though,  and personally I can't find any dot as high as the one from 2020, week 12 in the Italian mortality statistics (yes, the one there in the upper right corner, far above the blue field):

(https://i.imgur.com/KVXXCBs.png)
Source: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/caldo/sismg/SISMG_sintesi_2018w11.pdf

Not by much, to be fair - but week 13 (which ended today, and is not in the overall statistics yet) has almost double the amount of counted Corona deaths, and will completely crash that graph.

So as pointed out above, I see lots of things that can be discussed myself, but naming Italy as an example to reduce this to a normal flu is probably the most far-fetched bullsh*t I have read so far.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on March 31, 2020, 18:46
CNN anchor Chris Cuomo, and brother of New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, has just tested positive for COVID-19 (https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/media/chris-cuomo-coronavirus/index.html)

Quote
"I have been exposed to people in recent days who have subsequently tested positive and I had fevers, chills and shortness of breath," he wrote. "I just hope I didn't give it to the kids and Cristina. That would make me feel worse than this illness!"

Cuomo was most recently at CNN's offices in the Hudson Yards neighborhood of New York City last Friday. He anchored from his home on Monday, and interviewed his brother, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. The two men traded brotherly barbs about the anchorman's basement live shot location.

Cuomo said Tuesday that he is "quarantined in my basement" and will "do my shows from here."

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200331112747-chris-cuomo-0330---screenshot-exlarge-169.jpg)

https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1245020162878627840
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on March 31, 2020, 19:32
https://twitter.com/SBSNews/status/1244876361044377601?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on March 31, 2020, 20:53
Arrows Frontman Alan Merrill's Death Is Why You Need to Stay Home

According to Alan Merrill’s wife, he was unable to seek treatment while his symptoms were mild, due to overcrowding in hospitals. Once he was finally admitted with severe symptoms, he was forced to wait over 14 hours for a coronavirus test and for someone to bring Merrill to intensive care:

Quote
Initially I didn't think I could bear to burden everyone on FB with the announcement of my husband's death. But since it is now out there, I'd like to say something about the awful truth about the treatment of the virus in a respected hospital, in NYC, in this COUNTRY.
About 2 weeks ago, Alan felt like he was getting a cold and then the flu. I was immediately suspicious, and of course Alan being Alan, he told me I was getting hysterical for no reason. I nonetheless researched about what to do if you get the Cornavirus. Every article I read said that there is no help available unless you have severe symptoms -can't breathe or you chest really hurts. Otherwise the hospital will not admit you or test you for Covid-19. And this was absolutely true.
There was nothing I could do for Alan except watch him get worse. When he finally couldn't breathe, was so cold he needed piles of blankets on top of him, and couldn't sleep, I called an ambulance. The EMTs told me I wasn't allowed to go with him into the ER, so there was no point in accompanying him. I didn't know what was going on until an ER doctor called me an hour later. She said as far as she could tell (good thing she's a doctor) he had the virus but he needed to be tested before he could be admitted to ICU. But that would take at least 10 hours.
Ten hours later I didn't hear back, so I called Mt. Sinai and was told he did test positive and would be moved to ICU so he could get better attention from the pulmonologists there. At 10:30 a doctor called me and told me they were actually NOT moving him since his body was shutting down because his lungs were too destroyed to work. I asked if he had to die alone, and the doctor said I could come say goodbye. When I got to the hospital I had to argue with 3 different security guards to let me go to the ER. I stood my ground and they went back to fetch a nurse who let me in. This was around 11pm.
The doctor who called me came to meet me and apologized and said that his numbers were now better and he was going to be transferred to the ICU where he could get the care he needed. He was on a respirator and was sedated, so he was not in pain, or at least aware of the pain.
My husband should have been moved to the place where the experts who who were there on the front lines could help him. Every 15 minutes I would ask when he was going to be transferred and they would say in the next few minutes, but that never happened. At around 2:30 am, they were finally ready to transfer him upstairs, and I left, exhausted, not willing to battle another group of security guards in ICU.
I walked 3 blocks towards home and the doctor called me to say he was gone, his heart and lungs just stopped beating from all the pressure they were under.
So the net net is he was only allowed in the hospital until he was most certainly dying, and then he languished in ER for 14 hours while they tested him for corona, which he obviously had, and struggled to find someone to take him upstairs to ICU. Maybe if he was there, he would have had a fighting chance at least for those 15 hours, but of course we will never know. And now I have to grieve alone in quarantine.
I also want to relate that I asked the doctor if I should be tested since I was around Alan for two weeks. He said I came in looking like I did, the hospital would let me in. However, if I couldn't breathe, I should come in and then they would admit me and test me. So essentially you have to be near dead to get help. I know there is no cure, but surely there is something they can do to alleviate the risk your lungs being destroyed, like sending oxygen to people's homes?
Please know that I write this not for sympathy, but to let you know the reality of this disease and our country's lack of preparation for it.
I urge you to REALLY take this seriously, and when the time comes, show your anger to the officials who knew this was coming and did nothing to prepare.
Alan I can't even begin to imagine the ways in which I will miss you. I am sure that you are so happy that you are getting the credit for writing one of the world's most beloved anthems. Your family and the world is sadder without you. [via Katherine Turman]


Read More: Arrows Frontman Alan Merrill's Death Is Why You Need to Stay Home | https://loudwire.com/arrows-alan-merrill-death-stay-home/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AT_Pbtyid0

https://twitter.com/joanjett/status/1244358058916093952
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 01, 2020, 02:32
if keeping folks out let's the folks within continue in a relatively normal fashion (which I am assuming is happening in RI??) then, to me, that's a good thing

That prompted me to look into it. Heres'a good site with all the numbers, bar graphs, etc.

https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus/march-31-ri-coronavirus-update/ (https://www.wpri.com/health/coronavirus/march-31-ri-coronavirus-update/)

I must admit, though, I'm quite surprised at how lax some of their preventative measures are, considering that they've got the strictest border control in the country right now. Their numbers, at this point, are relatively low, but that's too be expected as they are the very smallest of states.

But I was a bit taken aback by the fact that they've only just announced the closing of parks and beaches, but that's not until Friday. Why on earth would they delay that decision? If it's anything like Connecticut, people are out and about at such places, because the weather has been mild, schools are closed, and no one is going in to work. So they all go to the park!

There's one such place literally across the street from where I'm living these days. I probably mentioned this previously, but instead of the usual groups of 2 to 4 people, I've been consistently seeing groups of 6, 8 and 10. That's not at all what you would normally encounter. But just today, they had put up barriers in the parking lot, essentially reducing the size by half. I have to imagine that this is in response to the amount of people who have been showing up. On the weekends, or anytime the weather is exceptionally nice, the parking lot has been at capacity, and they have police turning people away. In a normal year, you wouldn't even see that for a summer holiday. It's quite unusual.


As for the Rhode Island stats:

Quote
Health Department Director Dr. Nicole Alexander-Scott said the four patients who died were a man in his 60s, a man and a woman in their 70s, and a woman in her 80s. A total of eight Rhode Islanders have died from COVID-19 complications in recent days, according to the department.

The state reported 86 new positive tests for coronavirus in the population, bringing the state’s total to 488 since March 1. (Six cases reported Monday turned out to be residents of other states.)

The number of people hospitalized due to COVID-19 rose to 59, up from 41 on Monday and just four a week ago. Of those patients, 14 were in the ICU, with nine of them intubated. Officials said the hospitalized patients range in age, though the virus remains more deadly for older residents.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 01, 2020, 08:06
And, which I'll admit is my interpretation, he's talking about a loading across the whole of the flu season, not just one week or even one month. Again, with a lower level of mortality at the start of the winter, it does indeed look like, overall, that's the case in Italy - even with the March peak that is showing through in this data.

maybe he is, but even then, in what way do those numbers matter? Euromomo does show a way higher than usual current mortality rate for Italy, confirmed by the graph above, and exactly that high number of patients/deaths at the same time leads to massive problems in the hospitals, as you can see or read in every single report from Italy. The fact that overall flu numbers were low this winter is of no help for them at the moment.

And of course I am not a statistician or epidemiologist, but if there's one out of 1000 epidemiologists saying "ah, it's half bad over there in Italy", from somewhere in New Zealand, 20000k away, you may at least consider that the 999 others may be in the right, and not him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 01, 2020, 08:43
about a potential vaccine, there are some updates in Belgian press today by the way.

Currently 44 companies are working on it world wide. The one from Leuven ("Johnson&Johnson") expects to be able to conduct first tests on humans on from September. If those are successful, it could become available to the public early in 2021 - which they consider are extremely quick, as it usually takes 10 years to bring a new vaccine on the market.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 10:22
NBC News: Sweden defies lockdown trend, bets on citizens acting responsibly.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/sweden-defies-lockdown-trend-bets-citizens-acting-responsibly-n1172781?cid=googlenews-worldnews
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on April 01, 2020, 10:36
I guess the bet isn't on acting responsibly, but on achieving population immunity faster - this will probably be achieved - but the downside is the number of seriously ill people can flood the hospitals beyond capacity at least for a while. I don't think there's any hope of less people (divided by two as Norway is about half the size of Sweden) eventually getting infected here, there's only a reason to believe it is more likely health services will function almost as normal while the crisis is running.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 01, 2020, 16:04
I'm curious as to what is going on in Russia. I haven't seen them mentioned even once in the local or national news here.

According the currently available stats, they are way down the list in terms of numbers of infections. As of this writing, I'm seeing a total of only 2,777 cases compared to 189,711 in the U.S. Is that even possible? Even though they seem to be bracing for the inevitable increase, are those low numbers the result of lack of testing, or lack of honest reporting?

Then I just came across this:

Russian plane takes off for U.S. with coronavirus help onboard: state TV (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-usa/putin-sending-medical-supplies-to-help-us-fight-coronavirus-ifx-idUSKBN21I37W)

Quote
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A Russian military transport plane took off from an airfield outside Moscow early on Wednesday and headed for the United States with a load of medical equipment and masks to help Washington fight coronavirus, Russian state TV reported.

The flight, which was organised by the Russian Defence Ministry, is likely to be unpopular with some critics of Trump who have urged him to keep his distance from Putin and who argue that Moscow uses such aid as a geopolitical and propaganda tool to advance its influence, something the Kremlin denies.

Which seems odd, because you'd think they'd want to sensibly be stockpiling for themselves, instead of, according to the Russian officials quoted in the article, relying on reciprocation from the U.S. down the road if need be.

Supposedly that shipment arrives today. So I guess we'll know more once it has landed and an inventory of goods is made available.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 01, 2020, 16:46
 This is pretty much the biggest sporting news possible as far as the BBC is concerned.
 Right up there with the Olympics as it hits them where it hurts most.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/52104196
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 16:47
I guess the bet isn't on acting responsibly, but on achieving population immunity faster - this will probably be achieved - but the downside is the number of seriously ill people can flood the hospitals beyond capacity at least for a while. I don't think there's any hope of less people (divided by two as Norway is about half the size of Sweden) eventually getting infected here, there's only a reason to believe it is more likely health services will function almost as normal while the crisis is running.

Yep that is the idea, the reverse Elephant theory I mentioned early.

Anyway 500 + more cases and 39 deaths,  up the wards for me today. Treated a person who works in our Acute section , have now almost had a bath on alcohol :D

Intensive care places are about capacity now in Stockholm.

6500 retired hospital staff and others willing to help have signed up to help hospitals

Much calmer feel to the wards today,  now everyone knows what to expect people just getting there jobs done.

There is a code system in place with post it notes under name badges. Pink and yellow

Not sure of the meaning yet, thinking it might be tested or not will investigate
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 16:50
I'm curious as to what is going on in Russia. I haven't seen them mentioned even once in the local or national news here.

According the currently available stats, they are way down the list in terms of numbers of infections. As of this writing, I'm seeing a total of only 2,777 cases compared to 189,711 in the U.S. Is that even possible? Even though they seem to be bracing for the inevitable increase, are those low numbers the result of lack of testing, or lack of honest reporting?

Then I just came across this:

Russian plane takes off for U.S. with coronavirus help onboard: state TV (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-usa/putin-sending-medical-supplies-to-help-us-fight-coronavirus-ifx-idUSKBN21I37W)

Which seems odd, because you'd think they'd want to sensibly be stockpiling for themselves, instead of, according to the Russian officials quoted in the article, relying on reciprocation from the U.S. down the road if need be.

Supposedly that shipment arrives today. So I guess we'll know more once it has landed and an inventory of goods is made available.

Vodka in lethal dosing for a non Russian may kill the virus ?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 01, 2020, 16:59
 Bad day for sport as Wimbledon's cancellation is quickly followed by:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52121463


Bad day for the UK with new cases exceeding Italy's previous two days and new deaths almost touching 600.

So, I'd say Sweden's elephant theory ain't pink.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 17:14
Worse case scenario. CoVid-19 is in the nursing home system in Stockholm.

In Swedish https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/smittade-pa-boende-for-aldre-i-stockholm

But these are the folks that can not look after themselves and need 24 nursing.

In some parts of the world older people will move into communities but still are healthy just want live near others with similar age groups, this in not the case in Sweden you stay in your own home or apartments until you can't. These people will not survive much :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 17:20
Bad day for sport as Wimbledon's cancellation is quickly followed by:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52121463


Bad day for the UK with new cases exceeding Italy's previous two days and new deaths almost touching 600.

So, I'd say Sweden's elephant theory ain't pink.

I almost feel like we are all in the same sh*t show but if Sweden comes through with about the same stats as the rest of the world, it should be in a better position economically and be able to start up again faster with less worry about a 2nd wave, but if it turns out not too work we are going to be losing a generation and more. Basically will be in some sort of Hell storm
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 01, 2020, 19:04
Haven't Italy have been attributing all hospital deaths to Covid 19 during this period?
I think I read that somewhere.....

they do, yes. The Province of Bergamo has now published a table comparing 2019 to 2020 though, which paints quite a clear picture for that part of Italy

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUiVeilXsAc3i0J?format=jpg&name=medium)(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUiVeiqX0AMM8dL?format=jpg&name=medium)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 01, 2020, 19:37
Pretty clear increase in death rate there. Some regions will have many years to recover +428 :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 01, 2020, 21:56
Connecticut has just announced the death of a seven-week-old baby, the youngest thus far, due to COVID-19.

No other details available yet. I'll return to this post when I have more info.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 01, 2020, 22:52
Then it's the second baby victim of the virus in the US. First one was in Illinois, wasn't he?

Here in Belgium, we've had to accept the death of Rachel, 12-year-old girl, living in Ghent. The youngest victim in Europe, thus far. Actually their parents of Ghanean heritage called the Emergency service and the panic they felt made their call incomprehensible for the ESU, so that eventually a neighbour took the little girl himself to the hospital, but too late. :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 02, 2020, 06:18
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1245555663377321985?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 02, 2020, 06:36
https://twitter.com/BlackWomenLead_/status/1245402313528836096?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 02, 2020, 10:08
I almost feel like we are all in the same sh*t show but if Sweden comes through with about the same stats as the rest of the world, it should be in a better position economically and be able to start up again faster with less worry about a 2nd wave, but if it turns out not too work we are going to be losing a generation and more. Basically will be in some sort of Hell storm


You could go even further than this and say that Sweden are being reckless, not just with their own people, but with people all over the world.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 02, 2020, 10:21
You could Joel sure, maybe not and that is the issue. Until it is under control there is no right answers. Plus no one is travelling anyway so not sure it is a big issue to the rest of the world

But say for argument it works out for Sweden not every land could have done the same. As I have said Swedes do not socialise the same as any country I have been too and the work force is somewhat different to many parts of the world
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 02, 2020, 12:18
Belgian football/soccer league is definitively stopped. Bruges is the new Belgian champion.  :S

Is it also in your country?

Basketball league had already stopped on March 14. Ostend is Belgian champion.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 02, 2020, 12:35
Belgian football/soccer league is definitively stopped. Bruges is the new Belgian champion.  :S

Is it also in your country?

in Germany they still plan to continue the football season at some point. Some competitions have been stopped/cancelled (Ice Hockey league for example) but they decided not to award any titles in consequence. Crowning a champion based on an incomplete intermediate result seems to be fairly unusual (I haven't read anything like that so far, at least).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 02, 2020, 12:37
I'm having a difficult time just keeping up with news reports, stats and second-hand stories. In the Age of Information, there's just too much coming in to fully process.

New York City is really, really, really bad...and it's going to get worse. As we hear more and more from doctors and nurses on the frontline, we're finding out just how horrific this is. There are teams of medical professionals, who have been all over the world in emergency crisis situations, who have never seen anything like it, and they're starting to crack. 

One thing that they're reporting on more and more is just how quickly COVID-19 can kill. We're hearing about patients who are talking and alert one hour, and dead the next. The situation is so grim in the Emergency Rooms that none of these medical professionals are mincing words about any of it. They're exhausted, they're scared, and many of them are already suffering from PTSD, and there's no question that many more of them will when this finally abates.

There is now a new directive for paramedics and other emergency responders in NYC. Should they encounter a patient who, for whatever reason, is found to be unconscious and can not be revived on the spot, they are NOT to transport that person to any hospital, for fear that they could be carrying the virus.

This is becoming the stuff of sci-fi. There's still talk of a nationwide shutdown of travel, etc, but we're not quite there yet. I'm not sure on the exact numbers (as they change by the day) but I believe that about 40 of the 50 state have mostly shut down, and domestic travel, while greatly reduced, has not been entirely shut off.

To make matters even worse, there was a story in the news last night of a nurse who just walked away. More accurately, she just refused to go in. There's no protective equipment, her colleagues are getting sick and dying, and she just couldn't bring herself to walk into the fire when she has a husband and children at home who need her. Heroics are one thing, but just how much can expect of these people? What are they sacrificing themselves for if they lose their own lives without the crisis even being stalled?

These doctors and nurses are reminding me of those unfortunate workers in Fukushima who had to face certain illness or death while charging headlong into the worst of it. Statistically, the numbers are going to continue to rise for at least another month. One of the biggest threats we seem to be facing now is how the virus may decimate the medical community. The more compromised they become, the more fragile the entire situation is. I won't even try to pretend to predict where we'll be by the end of April. This is the very definition of "surreal."
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 02, 2020, 12:45
You could go even further than this and say that Sweden are being reckless, not just with their own people, but with people all over the world.

 But who defines reckless when everybody is guessing as to the best approach? That can only be done in hindsight which is totally unfair. Especially as Sweden currently have a better batting average than the UK.
What of London transport and their decision to cut services before all the other measures came into place, which lead to trains looking like full sardine tins? With hindsight was that not reckless?
Images of London trains and stations still show folks jam packed with little or no regard to social distancing.
It seems little is being done to enforce restrictions here, so it appears that we in the UK are being reckless towards the rest of the world.
As indeed are Italy and China, judging from the Heathrow arrivals board, yesterday.



Post Merge: April 02, 2020, 12:52
Spain already appears to be in a desperate state, even before they get the massive hit from the failed holiday season.
Already nearly a million have lost their jobs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52131756
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on April 02, 2020, 13:00
in Germany they still plan to continue the football season at some point. Some competitions have been stopped/cancelled (Ice Hockey league for example) but they decided not to award any titles in consequence. Crowning a champion based on an incomplete intermediate result seems to be fairly unusual (I haven't read anything like that so far, at least).

I only have about 5% of the interest in football that I used to have, but the best solution that I have seen, assuming that resumption of this 2019-20 season becomes possible by early autumn is to finish this season off, with its cups and promotions/relegations being determined, and then having a shortened 2020-21 season, with teams playing each other once rather than twice, and fewer cup matches (single leg knockout, no replays; cancel minor cup competitions).  Teams and fans finish the full season they expected this year, and start the abridged season knowing what the rules and opportunities are, and by the summer of 2021 (unless this all drags on even longer, or another catastrophe befalls us) we are back in synch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 02, 2020, 13:39
As indeed are Italy and China, judging from the Heathrow arrivals board, yesterday.

What is that about? Could you elaborate?

Thanks
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 02, 2020, 13:47
Spain seems to be about 10 days after Italy, but in worse shape, the figures are staggering.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 02, 2020, 13:51
What is that about? Could you elaborate?

Thanks

Many flights had been cancelled, almost all from Europe, yet there were 3 or 4 Alitalia flight arriving in the space of a couple of hours from Rome.
Same with the China flights: almost all still on while the most of the rest of the world are off.

Anyhow, here's a prime example of how the BBC are using misleading headlines and reporting to ramp up the panic.
In the last hour, a well know UK comedian has passed and this is the story link we get from the Beeb.

Eddie Large: Comedian dies with coronavirus.

OK, now read the article and the truth emerges:

His family confirmed the news "with great sadness" on Facebook, saying he had been suffering with heart failure and contracted the virus in hospital.

"Dad fought bravely for so long," they wrote.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 02, 2020, 15:07
Anyhow, here's a prime example of how the BBC are using misleading headlines and reporting to ramp up the panic.

Ah yes, the tried and true tactic of the media. Headline says on thing, article reveals another.

There was a story yesterday of how 87-year-old Supreme Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg was still going to a "public gym" and "refused" to self-quarantine. The article itself, though, revealed that the Supreme Court justices actually have their own gym, and that's where she had been going, with a trainer who practices all the necessary health procedures, and wipes everything down before and after. Not to mention the fact that there are only nine people total on the Supreme Court, and most of them are elderly, so how active could that gym possibly be anyway?

Outrage, just like panic and hysteria, still sells, it would seem.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 02, 2020, 15:34
Yes, as a March 2019 to March 2020 comparison, there is definitely an increase.

But, that's a single point comparison ... We don't know if there were less deaths in March 2019 than normal.

they did a study on that, so there must be numbers available somewhere, but personally I couldn't find them yet

«We compared the number of deaths over the first three months of this year with the average figure of the last three years, in order to verify the increase in mortality across Bergamo’s territory - explains Aldo Cristadoro, founder of InTwig and professor in Digital methods for social research at Bergamo University -. Our evaluation, carried out with great accuracy by means of the official data provided by each local administration, tells us that during the month of March more than 5.400 people have died, and approximately 4.500 of these are ascribable to coronavirus. One year ago, in March, the total deaths were almost 900».

https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/

As you can read, this study comes to the conclusion, that the number of people who died from the virus is actually way higher than the official Italian numbers, not lower (although in this newspaper article it sounds very simplified - no idea if all other potential influences were taken into account).

Edit: this also applies for the number of positive cases btw. According to their studies, the real number of infected in the Province of Bergamo is around 288000 (26% of the population)

https://www.ilriformista.it/i-morti-per-covid-19-a-bergamo-sono-4-500-smentiti-i-dati-ufficiali-73471/?refresh_ce
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 02, 2020, 16:08
You may not like relying on official stats - for whatever reason - but I'd really urge looking towards them in preference to newspapers...

I don't know what you mean. This is just a newspaper article referring to a study at the University at Bergamo - not something made up by some Italian journalist.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 02, 2020, 16:56
Little personal update. The hospital is openning up more wards a whole section is now CoVid-19 patients about 50 beds per ward 6 levels and this is not intensive care.

More and more positive cases out of the nursing home system .
As they like to say in the media, the Storm is here. 4-6 weeks of upwards curve I assume after looking at countries ahead of us
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 02, 2020, 20:15
 Just been outside to take part in the government initiative to "clap for the NHS", each week.
 It is great to hear, as everybody is taking part.
 However, I cannot help but think that in towns and cities around the UK, there is a staggering amount of hypocrisy by those who have persistently voted in a government that has had an open policy of denuding our health service of funds, right up until this current crisis, with the specific objective of selling it off to US companies for privatization.


The icing on the cake being that in effect, we have our current Prime Minister off the back of his broken Brexit promise of a third of a billion pounds per week extra, for the NHS.

Makes me blood boil.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 02, 2020, 22:38
But who defines reckless when everybody is guessing as to the best approach? That can only be done in hindsight which is totally unfair. Especially as Sweden currently have a better batting average than the UK.
What of London transport and their decision to cut services before all the other measures came into place, which lead to trains looking like full sardine tins? With hindsight was that not reckless?
Images of London trains and stations still show folks jam packed with little or no regard to social distancing.
It seems little is being done to enforce restrictions here, so it appears that we in the UK are being reckless towards the rest of the world.
As indeed are Italy and China, judging from the Heathrow arrivals board, yesterday.



Post Merge: April 02, 2020, 12:52
Spain already appears to be in a desperate state, even before they get the massive hit from the failed holiday season.
Already nearly a million have lost their jobs.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52131756

London Transport had no option but to cancel the services as a third of the total staff were absent through illness or self-isolation. Contrary to reports in much of the right wing media.

Furthermore the govt here is at fault for not shutting down anywhere near as quickly as they should’ve done, and being very slow to stop people travelling to work in London, insisting people should still go to work, and also not offering millions any financial support - still not offered me anything as a Ltd Co. Director who’s lost 100% of my income.

I dearly hope there’ll be a proper investigation into our government’s incompetence.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 02, 2020, 23:12
The number of reported, confirmed cases has passed one million today, doubled in less than a week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 03, 2020, 08:00
The number of reported, confirmed cases has passed one million today, doubled in less than a week.

 Another thing we have the US to thank for. Almost as many new cases in a week as the total number of cases in Italy and Spain combined.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 03, 2020, 10:22
in Germany the reproduction number R0 is now down to ~1, which seems to be seen as quite a good sign

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/rki-coronavirus-105.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 03, 2020, 15:53
Up to the wards again today, this time CoVid-19 wards. Saw a lot of old faces all really happy to see me and say hi. Had a good chat to one of the ward coordinator, they are doing well and coping ok.

Very quiet and calm people just getting the required job done.

2 of the staff were worried how we were doing. Hugs were saved for a later date.

3 new older patients were transported in and one out. The women of about 70 had the biggest smile on her face as she was moved to another section of the Hospital. The kind of smile that includes the whole face especially the eyes.

The last thing that was said at the end of every conversation was stay safe.

We have more and more work coming from the CoVid-19 wards so will be an interesting week next week
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 03, 2020, 16:51
May be sharing stuff that people already know - but if not, here's a good and easy to read article on reproduction rates in general - and, by extension, why R0~1 is good news for Germany!  :)

https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory (https://www.healthknowledge.org.uk/public-health-textbook/research-methods/1a-epidemiology/epidemic-theory)

also the German Society for Epidemiology released a paper ~two weeks ago, showing what impact on the number of infected (and ICU capacities) it would have to (quickly, within 7 days - or less quickly, within 35 days) reach a reproduction rate of 0,9

(https://i.imgur.com/3qBbwY9.png)
Source: https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020Corona_DGEpi-21032020-v2.pdf (page 5)

Looks like we may be able to hit that number somewhere between the red and green line, which looks fairly promising. Keeping it stable (and with hopefully less restrictive measures) is another task though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 03, 2020, 17:04
also the German Society for Epidemiology released a paper ~two weeks ago, showing what impact on the number of infected (and ICU capacities) it would have to (quickly, within 7 days - or less quickly, within 35 days) reach a reproduction rate of 0,9

(https://i.imgur.com/3qBbwY9.png)
Source: https://www.dgepi.de/assets/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme2020Corona_DGEpi-21032020-v2.pdf (page 5)

Looks like we may be able to hit that number somewhere between the red and green line, which looks fairly promising. Keeping it stable (and with hopefully less restrictive measures) is another task though.

We desperately need proportional representation in this country to put an end to a minority party (37%) like the incompetent bunch of wannabe Trumps being in charge here for evermore. Then we could progress as a nation in every sense instead of relying on muppets like Johnson, Gove, Patel, Rees-Mogg to ever do the right thing for people rather than money.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 03, 2020, 19:04
Another thing we have the US to thank for. Almost as many new cases in a week as the total number of cases in Italy and Spain combined.
But our population is over three times the combined of those two, no?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 03, 2020, 19:14
But our population is over three times the combined of those two, no?

I suspect it’s more the curve you’re on, rather like the UK. When the economy, rather than people, is the main concern, this is what happens. We’re horribly right-wing in the UK sadly, but that pales into insignificance when I look at the outlook of the US, even under the Democrats, under the Republicans it’s absolutely abhorrent.

My impression of the US is just money, money, money. I may be wrong of course.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 03, 2020, 19:58
https://youtu.be/WIafYHjx04U

Interesting but also shows that CoVid-19 was not unexpected in certain circles
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 03, 2020, 20:21
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1245907325023432704
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 03, 2020, 21:09
https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1245907325023432704

The New York subway and London underground looking like identical twins.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 06:35
Sure you don't actually die from HIV AIDS either, but without it the pneumonia would not kill you
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on April 04, 2020, 07:46
yep - many people would survive the co-morbidity issues without the corona virus on top.


Here in Aus we are going ok.  As it is such a large country, different parts of it are doing differently.  New South Wales (Sydney) is having a tougher time of it, and putting in harsher restrictions. 

Here in Western Australia we have a pretty low count (435 odd cases only) - in the last week, most of our cases are from a couple of cruise ships tied up, who have been isolated and not in touch with the local population in any way.  In real terms our daily new cases are less than 10 for the last 4 or 5 days. 

We have shut down the borders completely though.  No one in or out, unless you have a specific exemption ... and even then, you are taken to a local hotel to quarantine for 14 days.

It is actually beginning to look like they may ease the restrictions here by mid-end april.  Still keeping the borders closed, but easing restriction of movement, schools, workplaces etc ... which would be great
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 08:24
Hopefully when restrictions are lifted the spread doesn't get out of control. The head epidemiologist of Sweden was interviewed last night. He was saying when schools reopen historical evidence is a new stronger wave of virus related issues.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 09:13
In a juxtaposition I do also think the issues we have economically, physically and mentally post CoVid-19 will probably be worse than the virus.

So have come to the conclusion that the only positive that can come from here is we don't just continue living in the same way we did before.

Ie flying everywhere, travel for meetings etc etc.

Maybe we can start over be better people smarter towards our planet
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 04, 2020, 11:13
In a juxtaposition I do also think the issues we have economically, physically and mentally post CoVid-19 will probably be worse than the virus.

So have come to the conclusion that the only positive that can come from here is we don't just continue living in the same way we did before.

Ie flying everywhere, travel for meetings etc etc.

Maybe we can start over be better people smarter towards our planet
Absolutely this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 04, 2020, 13:50
In a juxtaposition I do also think the issues we have economically, physically and mentally post CoVid-19 will probably be worse than the virus.

So have come to the conclusion that the only positive that can come from here is we don't just continue living in the same way we did before.

Ie flying everywhere, travel for meetings etc etc.

Maybe we can start over be better people smarter towards our planet

But history tells us that the opposite is true.

After the First World War and the Spanish Flu pandemic, we had a period of massive economic growth and the excessive lifestyle which lead to the decade becoming being known as the Roaring Twenties.

Post Second World War rationing, the US economy overall grew by 37% during the 1950s, fueled by a middle-class culture that became obsessed with consumer goods. Increasing numbers of workers enjoyed high wages, larger houses, better schools, and more cars and household technology.
Here in the UK, UK growth was so rapid, the economy experienced labour shortages.
Plus, we all know what came after the 1950s!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 04, 2020, 14:47
Interesting piece from The Telegraph on Italy's stats.
“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
Sure you don't actually die from HIV AIDS either, but without it the pneumonia would not kill you

This is one of the key things I've been wondering about. Here in Connecticut, we had the announcement of a six-week-old infant dying (the youngest on record) who "tested positive for COVID-19." But they've yet to release autopsy details (not that they're being withheld, they just haven't completed the work yet). So as sadly dramatic as that sounds on paper, that same baby may have some other, very threatening, health issues that may have been insurmountable, with or without the coronavirus. The point is, we just don't know.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 20:09
Crap day for France recon the tdf is done for 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 04, 2020, 20:29
That's a pretty bold statement ... even more so since you are primarily talking about a population that is within a few years either side of the average life expectancy to start with ...

A case in point:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-52165397
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 04, 2020, 20:33
Crap day for France recon the tdf is done for 2020

 No, not so bad at all. It looks very bad because of the readjustments.


France: on April 3 the French Government reported 17,827 additional cases and 532 additional deaths from nursing homes that had not been reported previously.
2116 new cases and 1355 new deaths in France, including 884 fatalities in nursing homes that occurred over a period of several weeks and that were announced only today. NOTE: If and when the French government determines the correct distribution of these additional deaths over time, we will adjust historical data accordingly.


That BBC link in my post above is about one similar incident in Scotland.

So today in effect, 2116 new cases and 472 fatalities. That's another day heading in the right direction.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 20:49
Ahh ok crap but Good then.

Sweden had a good day, will be interesting if we have a 2 week lockdown soon. Rumour at the Hospital that next week and week after would be lockdown
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 04, 2020, 21:25
Karolinska institutet in Stockholm has a immunity test that has just been approved. Will find more details just saw it named on the late news tonight
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2020, 02:53
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EUxRITtU0AEZwkz?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2020, 08:10
Karolinska institutet in Stockholm has a immunity test that has just been approved. Will find more details just saw it named on the late news tonight

're watched

It not approved yet. There will be a blind test next week. The test had shown to work but needs a blind test 1st.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2020, 10:27
Leaving this here with no comment

China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-should-be-sued-for-6-5-trillion-for-coronavirus-damages-says-top-uk-think-tank-20200405-p54h5b.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2020, 10:33
An interesting article in the Canadian media, citing British Columbia's Chief Medical Officer of Health.

Basically, she notes that we're starting to see Mother Nature do what she does best and self regulate ... as the virus is showing that it is seasonal (just like the flu and the other coronaviruses that are out and about):

“There’s some evidence that this coronavirus is behaving like other coronaviruses, which means that when we have increased UV light and warmer temperatures it tends to fade away.”

This isn't the first time that I've read this in the media ... although each time I've posted it, I've been slammed because the source is an academic. Hopefully seeing this comment come from someone on the front lines of the policy response will get people thinking a bit more ...

If that doesn't tell enough of the story to get people thinking, consider this:
- BC is the warmest part of Canada and gets spring a few weeks to a month or so ahead of the rest of the country ... and has been showing the first tail off in cases and curve flattening in the country
- compare New York and Florida to see the impact of climate. Both states have similar populations and population densities. FL has an average age that makes dinosaurs look young ...  Based on that, you'd expect higher cases and deaths in FL ... but they have 10% of cases and 5% of deaths compared to NY.
- there are similarly low case rates in the other southern US states ...


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bcs-health-officer-says-decrease-in-covid-cases-heartening-2/ (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bcs-health-officer-says-decrease-in-covid-cases-heartening-2/)

We can hope but Spain and sections of Italy are pretty warm already.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 05, 2020, 12:55
We can hope but Spain and sections of Italy are pretty warm already.

 It's starting to turn milder, but it's quite a way off what I would call warm.
I keep a regular eye on Mallorca and that's been averaging low to mid 60s.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2020, 13:10
“There’s some evidence that this coronavirus is behaving like other coronaviruses, which means that when we have increased UV light and warmer temperatures it tends to fade away.”
What's interesting about this is people's interpretation. The above would seem to indicate that the virus itself does not survive well in sunlight, warmth, etc. But some have taking this to mean that if a person gets sunlight, etc, that it boosts their immunity to coronavirus, they've even stated as much explicitly. But I don't think the data is suggesting that, per se, unless I've got that wrong?



Quote
Based on that, you'd expect higher cases and deaths in FL ... but they have 10% of cases and 5% of deaths compared to NY.
- there are similarly low case rates in the other southern US states ...
This will be the thing to watch, because everything I've been seeing seems to indicate that some of those warmer states are poised to become the next epicenters of coronavirus. The fact that they're numbers aren't higher yet would seem to be due to other factors unrelated to climate. I also remember reading some stats on a number of those Spring Breakers who have since tested positive, but I don't know if that was definitively traced to their time in Florida or not.

I suspect that we're going to find that the warmer climates will offer little relief in the battle against COVID-19. I'm very curious to see how this unfolds though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2020, 13:22
Bill Gates is spending billions to produce 7 potential coronavirus vaccines (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/491006-bill-gates-is-funding-factories-for-7-potential)


 - Gates said that at most his foundation would end up picking two out of the seven vaccine candidates.

 - That means billions of dollars spent on manufacturing would be abandoned.

 - He said it’s worth it, as the world is in a situation where the economy is losing trillions of dollars.

Quote
Gates said testing and building the manufacturing capacity at the same time is essential in developing a vaccine in the 18-month timeframe. He commented on the current social distancing and stay-at-home measures occurring across the country, saying we’ll have a lot of unusual measures in place until “we get the world vaccinated,” adding, “that’s a tall order, but it’s where we need to get to.”

https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1245889758322200576
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2020, 14:01
I did know about UV thanks Kiwi just needed a reminder.

Some stats from Sweden and age group
flesta avlidna, av Sveriges 401 dödsfall, 170 personer, finns inom åldersgruppen 80–90 år. Bland 70–79-åringarna har 106 människor avlidit och bland dem över 90 är antalet dödsfallen 76.

In Swedish and I am a lazy fliper so hope you get the idea.

Not sure what we can draw from the stats and the effectiveness of the reverse Elephant theory. But about 240 of the 400 are 70 and over.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 05, 2020, 14:21
At a domestic level, it's also a big part of why we hang washing out on a line ... the sunlight does a good job at killing what the washing machine hasn't (or, for most washing machines, what it has added ...)
I had never considered that aspect of it, but I suppose it's all part of the reason that I prefer clotheslined bedsheets and towels when given the opportunity. It something you see very little of these days though, unless you're in more rural areas. When I was kid, it wasn't at all unusual, even suburbia, to see clothesline outside of one's home. But today, in those exact same neighborhoods? Never.


Quote
First question has to be - what do you think that those other factors are?
Good question, and I can only speculate.
In somewhere like Luisiana, it could very well be due to less travel outside the state, and fewer people coming in, for those in more remote regions. Obviously a place like New Orleans would be different, with so many tourists coming and going, etc, which is why the've had to shut that city down.

For Florida (again, this is just speculation), I imagine an aging population of retirees who may have been relatively in place at the start of all this, and it wasn't until people from the northeast began fleeing south that the virus gained a strong foothold, in addition to college students arriving for Spring Break, etc. So they may have a delayed start compared to a place like New York.

As I type this though, I do have to wonder about the effect that air-conditioning has on the life expectancy of the virus. It's so damn hot down there for much of the year that everyone tends to rely on AC quite extensively. So if the virus makes it way to indoor surfaces, I wonder if the internal environment negates whatever is going on outdoors?

As far as a timeline in regards to Florida specifically, I would have to imagine that by the end of May we'll have a very clear view of just how bad it may or may not get for them.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 05, 2020, 16:00
As I understand, it's a combination of both.

UV promotes vitamin D, which promotes a stronger immune system ... hence less susceptibility to disease in general.


Yup.
My niece once had to go to the doctors because she was feeling so tired and lethargic.
She was diagnosed with a lack of vitamin D....................due to the fact she spent so much time inside Manchester and Newport velodromes.


Anyhow, I too had read that it boosts the immune system, helping combat the virus.
Which makes the UK government's latest threat completely nuts.
Just as we finally get Spring weather, they intend to stop folks going outdoors altogether.
All because of the few who are not current following guidelines.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 05, 2020, 18:08
https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1246785066652614657?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 05, 2020, 21:55
Leaving this here with no comment

China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-should-be-sued-for-6-5-trillion-for-coronavirus-damages-says-top-uk-think-tank-20200405-p54h5b.html

The Henry Jackson Society is very conservative, not a nice bunch.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 05, 2020, 21:56
Sweden looking to adapt. No surprise there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepares-to-tighten-coronavirus-measures-as-death-toll-climbs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 05, 2020, 21:57
Boris Johnson has been taken to hospital for tests.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 02:28
Boris Johnson has been taken to hospital for tests.
That was on the national evening news here as well. Seems several days of an unrelenting high fever has caused concern. Considering how quickly this virus is known to overtake even healthy individuals, I would imagine their concerns are warranted.

Should anything happen to him, who would his replacement be?
(Is there a default individual, or is it a yet-to-be-determined scenario?)


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 02:33
A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive for COVID-19 after coming into contact with an asymptomatic caretaker (https://www.businessinsider.com/tiger-tests-positive-for-covid-19-bronx-zoo-in-nyc-2020-4)

(https://i.insider.com/5e8a4c2992e8ba7f77404f35?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

Quote
Nadia, a four-year-old female tiger at the zoo tested positive, and the diagnosis was confirmed by the USDA's National Veterinary Services Laboratory, based in Ames, Iowa. The Wildlife Conservation Society said that Nadia, three other tigers, and three African lions have developed dry coughs and decreased appetite, but are expected to recover. None of the zoo's other big cats, including tigers in another area of the zoo, have shown any coronavirus symptoms.

The cats were infected by a caretaker who had COVID-19 but was asymptomatic, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 02:48
I would be interested to compare the rest of the Gulf Coast and some of the other, dry/warm states...

This just in:
(With some insight)

Louisiana parish has highest coronavirus death rate in US (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/louisiana-parish-has-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-in-us)
Quote
Two Louisiana parishes are recording the highest death rates from coronavirus in the United States.

The parishes, Louisiana’s term for counties, are St. John the Baptist Parish and Orleans Parish, which covers New Orleans.

By state, only New York is higher than Louisiana in deaths per capita. Louisiana residents are more likely than almost any other state to have other chronic and preexisting conditions that make them more vulnerable to the coronavirus, contributing to the high fatality rate in the state, which has recorded over 13,000 cases and nearly 500 deaths.

Louisiana residents are also more likely to be hospitalized after contracting the disease. According to Friday data, the state’s deaths-per-hospitalization rate is 22%, compared to 15% in New York City and 16% in Georgia.


Also Louisiana:  :S

Louisiana Church Holds Services, Defying Coronavirus Stay-At-Home Order (https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-04-05/louisiana-church-holds-services-defying-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order)

Quote
CENTRAL, La. (Reuters) - The pastor of the Life Tabernacle Church near Baton Rouge held services on Sunday in defiance of a stay-at-home order issued by Louisiana because of the coronavirus pandemic, telling worshippers they had "nothing to fear but fear itself."

Pastor Tony Spell, who was arrested last week for holding services, summoned his faithful again, three weeks after the state's governor, John Bel Edwards, banned gatherings of 10 people or more.

Hundreds of worshippers, about half of them black and half white, converged on the church, many arriving in 26 buses sent to pick them up. Everyone but immediate family members kept a social distance of at least six feet, a lawyer for the pastor said.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 03:25
This is not nuthin'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1Ph8pKHISI
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 06, 2020, 05:36
"Indeed, people who did have comorbid conditions had a much higher ratio of dying from the disease, but in most people there were no other predictors, apart from age, that they could die."
 https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/coronavirus-mystery-why-does-it-affect-people-so-differently/12120842?pfmredir=sm
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 06, 2020, 08:22
That was on the national evening news here as well. Seems several days of an unrelenting high fever has caused concern. Considering how quickly this virus is known to overtake even healthy individuals, I would imagine their concerns are warranted.

Should anything happen to him, who would his replacement be?
(Is there a default individual, or is it a yet-to-be-determined scenario?)




I think Beelzebub is next in line to take over from him. Or it could be Dominic Raab.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 06, 2020, 08:24
This just in:
(With some insight)

Louisiana parish has highest coronavirus death rate in US (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/louisiana-parish-has-highest-coronavirus-death-rate-in-us)

Also Louisiana:  :S

Louisiana Church Holds Services, Defying Coronavirus Stay-At-Home Order (https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-04-05/louisiana-church-holds-services-defying-coronavirus-stay-at-home-order)


I don't know whether it's true but CNN were reporting that 14 US states have exempted religious gatherings from the lockdown ban. Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 06, 2020, 08:58
I don't know whether it's true but CNN were reporting that 14 US states have exempted religious gatherings from the lockdown ban. Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.

If I were you, Joel, I'd be very worried right now.

(https://i.insider.com/5e8a4c2992e8ba7f77404f35?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp)


Just sayin'  :P :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 06, 2020, 09:03
It does have implications for me Huw, been chatting to another cat sitter about it this morning. Not that anyone really needs their cat feeding currently as no one is away.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 06, 2020, 09:20
Little Stockholm update. Statical model is saying 3 weeks of continued upwards curve and then we start to go near, rest of Sweden will be a little after.

The Swedish Government is saying that until D plus 5 years until we can say which system worked best where.

The field hospital has started taking Patients
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 13:31
Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.

It's a problem that may just take of itself, in the long run.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 13:58
The message being sent out now is that we're approaching an apex point, and that people should refrain from even the grocery store or pharmacy. They're hoping for even stricter isolation. The problem with that is that we're now reaching beyond the point that most people's original buying frenzy was supposed to last them. Personal stockpiles are running low, and the stores have yet to be adequately restocked.

On the social front, we're coming off a week of decent but not great weather, but starting today things are going to be quite nice. So even more people will be wanting to be outdoors. Yesterday I was riding around my local park, which consists a nice 5 to 6k paved loop,* with multiple extensions of dirt and gravel that form an outer perimeter. Very easy to spend hours hiking within, as I have done countless times over the years.

As previously noted, it's been unusually busy there as of late, even during the weekdays. So I was surprised when I seemed to have the place to myself yesterday for my Sunday excursion. Instead of hundreds of people, there were perhaps a dozen total. When I reached the main parking area (I ride there, so don't use the main car entrance) the answer revealed itself: the police had blocked it off. They had no problem with my presence, or that of local pedestrians, but they wanted nothing of the vehicular traffic and the crowds that they bring. The good news is that the sun is out today, and I anticipate some wonderful riding without the obstacles of families, and pets on leashes.

But it's weird. And if people can't even get outside to relax and decompress from the COVID-19 anxiety, they're going to snap. I've no idea where this is all leading. But I will be clocking in some serious distance on my bike in the meantime. If the world comes to an end, at least my form will be good.

--------------
* I believe I've mentioned this park before, but it really is a wonderful little route. I like to think of it as a mini-golf version of a Worlds course. It twists and turns, has a few short but challenging climbs, and a couple of zippy downhill sections. All of which are surrounded by scenic water and trees. It's the type of course that you can make as hard or easy as one chooses, depending on the effort applied. I have some nice video of one lap around that I took last Fall, with the foliage nicely highlighted. I hope to share that soon.

Truth be told though, I've been spending more time as of late on the outer perimeter of dirt and gravel. For one thing, it's much less crowded than the paved sections. For another, it offers a much greater variety in terms of distance and levels of difficulty. It's a bit beyond cyclocross, and well into the realm of mountain bike trails. These are the exact same areas I used to ride my 29er hardtail on, but now I'm tackling them on a fixed-gear "road bike." And loving every moment of it.

 :)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 15:28
Curious.

https://twitter.com/jawillick/status/1247167765611311107

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU4m7ouXkAg_NkZ?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 06, 2020, 16:08
Little bit off down time today so we made 45 plastic face masks.

The young Elephants are doing a bad job of protection for the older. The rather large death toll is from older person homes in Sweden
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on April 06, 2020, 16:14
Somewhere earlier in the thread I reported cross country skiers started competing in «how far can you go» as GPS tracking and strava makes it possible to compete without elevated risks for virus transmissions. This bug has now infected cyclists too, here is today’s submitted ride.

https://twitter.com/torjussleen/status/1247119099437682696
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 06, 2020, 16:34
Looks like rain in Northern France this weekend
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 06, 2020, 16:34
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-white-house-01306286-0bbc-4042-9bfe-890413c6220d.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on April 06, 2020, 19:43
Looks like rain in Northern France this weekend

That would typically be the year for the long awaited ‘next wet Paris-Roubaix’  - of course :fp
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 06, 2020, 20:30
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52192604
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 06, 2020, 22:05
Interesting adjective ... why do you use that?

Only because I was genuinely "curious" about what the graph was showing.  :P

I posted it before having the time to really analyze it, so I was just throwing it out there, with the intention of looking more closely when time allows—which hasn't yet happened for me.
 :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 08:58
https://twitter.com/Velorooms/status/1247433379982839808?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 13:21
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/warning-of-explosive-resurgence-of-covid-19-if-social-controls-relaxed-20200407-p54hyp.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 14:19
114 deaths today as the results of CoVid-19 getting into the old people homes starts to show.

They did some random testing in Sweden to see spread, results should be out next day or so.

Testing is going to be ramped up to About 100 000 per week soon.

We made another 40 plastic face masks
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 15:33
https://twitter.com/mdfdoyle/status/1247367564742795265?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 15:49
A bit more on Sweden approach in the western media. No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

National Review: Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/ 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 07, 2020, 16:05
No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

National Review?

A pillar of the Right and Conservatives for decades. Started by none other than William F. Buckley Jr.
That's not a judgement call on the article, just some historical background.

There are some interesting points made in there, but it's just impossible to know who's wrong and who's right until months from now when hopefully much of this is behind us.

I will say this though: If the U.S. policy turns out to be the wrong one, then they are risking any sort of public cooperation on any big issue moving forward. When the public is able to look back and reflect, and if businesses are shattered beyond repair, our leaders may very well find themselves with no one to lead, as no one will follow whatever their next plan of action is.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: M Gee on April 07, 2020, 16:15
Interesting advjective ... why do you use that?

Mathematically, the result makes sense - Germany has 1/4 of your population and 1/3 of your case count ...

Please read what I am about to say as a whole - don't separate out the first sentence and react to it without reading the rest!

And, without getting on my hobby horse again, that result makes sense, since really, your country isn't that affected by this disease.

If you look at the case counts per million - 2 states in the North East are badly affected and are bearing the brunt of the infection.
Their "neighbours" are moderately affected (MA, DC, MI, CT - and even PA, although that is less than the national average) - and then there are two states outside of this relatively narrow geographic region that are also bearing some burden - WA and LA.

Get beyond these 9 states and the case ratio drops quickly to really quite low levels in the rest of the country.

So, the disease is - for now at least - relatively localised or concentrated within the large land mass that is the US - which contrasts to the usual sort of "we're all going to die!!!!" messaging that most of the media that I've seen on both our and your side of the 49th portrays ...

Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 07, 2020, 16:38
Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.

Where on earth have you picked up this Doomsday prophecy from?
I ask as I haven't seen any figures that come close to suggesting that the virus is so efficiently infectious that close to 100% of the World's population will contract it at some point.
In fact I have never heard of any virus being that effective.

It sounds flaky to me because as yet most experts agree that we don't know enough about the virus accurate predictions about the final outcome, let alone one that is so cataclysmic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 17:02
Thanks DB thought they might be a bit right wing as they changed the Name of the Virus during the text. All the Swedish quotes were well translated though
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 07, 2020, 17:52
Smallpox (which I assume is your reference to the Native American's is about) has up to a 75% CFR ... covid is about the same 0.1% as the flu - and that's the assumption based on the known, but not properly measured, under-recording of cases ...

Kiwi, can you please stop to present your personal opinion as a fact?!

you are entitled to believe whatever you want of course, but almost all studies so far came to a different result.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 18:00
A little modelling with predictions Euro based only so took Sweden and the UK more mentioned in the report 

Sweden: Deaths in Sweden are forecast to peak the last week of April, with an estimated 134 deaths on April 24. The model shows that Sweden will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 1,090 ICU beds on April 25, and predicts 4,182 total deaths in the country by August 4.UK: Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 07, 2020, 18:14
That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug ...

So, no, it's not my opinion - it just varies from either the position that you have read or the position that you want to believe, or both ...

yes, and most other academics came to a very different result. Just because you seem to live in your bubble only reading reports that neglect the danger of the virus, doesn't mean that this it the only truth.

It's one potential outcome - one that I surely would prefer as well - but this doesn't mean that it can be seen as a fact
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 07, 2020, 18:51
no, I read both sides of it (as well) with lots of interest, and at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle.

This will take time though, maybe years, at the moment there are only indications. You read those differently than I do - and obviously you're free to discuss why you think so - but I still think it's not right to present those as facts
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 07, 2020, 19:00
30 000 people in French Hospital system, over 7500 of those on respirators.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 07, 2020, 19:27
That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug

at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle

just to add an example, as you quoted the epidemiologist from New Zealand as one of your sources. Here is a view on his findings from another Professor, also from the university of Auckland:

https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712154235879424
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712486181523457
https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244762803031830528

so even at the very same university they can't come to a conclusion over this yet.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 07, 2020, 21:43
 Hard to know what to believe these days.
According to UK figures, there have been over 4,000 deaths since the start of the month, but not a single new recovery.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 08, 2020, 01:11
...let alone one that is so cataclysmic.

But it made for some very exciting reading! :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2020, 06:42
https://twitter.com/KurtNiceHHL/status/1247707381909291013?

That is 1 way to put it :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 08, 2020, 07:34

Siouxsie Wiles is first and foremost the owner of a science communications company.

She is one of the "talking heads" who the media are turning to at the moment for their views on all things covid.
I can't comment on her bona fides - so without casting aspersions on her integrity, I would say that there is definitely a party line that anyone in her position would be very well incentivised to take ...

it was just supposed to be one example for a current state full of contradictory opinions, there's no need to discredit her. The way I understood media reports discussing that topic, it's completely normal in an early stage of a new disease. Numbers are read in different ways, factors leading to a projection are weighted differently, and so on.

As I mentioned somewhere above, I also think that it's right to question the governments decisions and not to start following them blindly, but just assuming you're right while everyone else isn't because he is taking a "party line", seems like a bit of narrow view to me.

BTW - as I said up thread ... I worked in Asia all last year and returned home with an ARS and a bunch of related symptoms that cleared up after about 3 weeks.

and yeah, this seems to be one of the difficulties, that the desease is developing so differently, and it doesn't seem to be quite clear yet why this is the case. Personally I only know one person who tested positive, and for him (although he's only ~30, quite fit, doing sports, non-smoker and so on), and he had a very hard time for over two weeks. Even late on there were days where he was barely able to breath*. And according to him, worst thing is that you're basically alone with it, not knowing what to do, or how to deal with it. There was no doctor coming to visit him or so, due to the high risk of getting infected.

It's just one example of course, but personally I have never had any kind of bug like this.

(* I just read an article that this seems to be a normal development btw. For the first week or so the upper airways are affected, and then it either gets better, or is moves further into your lungs, meaning that you're likely to have a hard time)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 08, 2020, 07:45
https://twitter.com/KurtNiceHHL/status/1247707381909291013?

That is 1 way to put it :lol

I think the BBC should sign him up! :cool
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 08, 2020, 09:23
<<facepalm>>

https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/twins-in-india-named-corona-and-covid-after-the-deadly-virus/

Twins in India named Corona and Covid after the deadly virus
By Jon LevineApril 4, 2020

Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

“The delivery happened after facing several difficulties and therefore, my husband and I wanted to make the day memorable,” mom Preeti Verma told Press Trust of India, reported by Sky News.

The couple made the decision, she said, after hospital workers began referring to the babies as Corona and Covid.

So far, India has reported 3,082 cases and 86 deaths.

The country’s 1.3 billion residents have been put on lockdown by the central government, with only trips to supermarkets and pharmacies permitted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2020, 10:05
Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

Lindköping hospital.

They tested everyone in the operation department.

50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 08, 2020, 10:11
Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

Lindköping hospital.

They tested everyone in the operation department.

50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion

Blimey. Do you have a link please mate?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 08, 2020, 10:23
The only piece I can find suggests 50 were tested and ‘5 to 10’ were positive with either no symptoms or mild symptoms. Not entirely sure what ‘5 to 10’ means though.  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2020, 10:38
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/70Oxe3/avdelning-pa-sjukhus-testade-alla--halften-var-smittade

25 of 50
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 08, 2020, 10:46
That is 1 way to put it :lol

I think they need to hire Samuel L. Jackson to so some PSAs.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcT5oT0tD5odefrdKndes1cyBI7e30MaVa-NcG6cP5RAltddGJVV&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 08, 2020, 10:56
Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

I hope they chose wisely between the two.

"Corona" sounds more like a girl's name, like "Sharona."

And "Covid" sounds more like a boy's name, like "David."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_VsjUYx7Gg

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2020, 13:46
Swedish experiment update.

Stockholm has potentially started to flatten the curve,

Most issues in Stockholm are in those older people homes. Of people over 70 years old 33% have got CoVid-19 from older people home = 40% of those have died.

In the rest of Sweden the young have not spread CoVid-19 to the old Elephants 5% of the over 70 live in older people homes.

The rest of Sweden the infection curve is still increasing

There is now discussion going on between 4 Scandinavian countries to see which approach is working the best
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 08, 2020, 15:33
But, hang on ... you were putting her up to discredit what her colleague said ... you don't get to have it both ways ...  :angel

And do realise that there are a bunch of people who are already making a good return (financial or otherwise) on the covid industry - including "academic experts", public health experts and drug companies ...

Again, not saying that she is hunting cash, but remember I made a comment a couple of weeks back about a conversation with a top Canadian epidemiologist? That person said that they couldn't watch their colleagues on TV due to the crap that was being spouted as those colleagues were putting truth (in the sense of fundamentals of epidemiology, not about covid per se) second to conduct that helped them to make cases for funding.

yeah, I also mentioned that myself a week ago or so as well.

And there's no need to look up all kind of stuff to discredit her because I'm not able or interested in dicussing it with you anyway, that's what I mean. I know nothing about her, her work, or her ethics. I just posted it to show that not even at one single university scientists can come to a conclusion about the danger of the virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 08, 2020, 17:15
Swedish experiment update.

Stockholm has potentially started to flatten the curve,

Most issues in Stockholm are in those older people homes. Of people over 70 years old 33% have got CoVid-19 from older people home = 40% of those have died.

In the rest of Sweden the young have not spread CoVid-19 to the old Elephants 5% of the over 70 live in older people homes.

The rest of Sweden the infection curve is still increasing

There is now discussion going on between 4 Scandinavian countries to see which approach is working the best

Yup.

Stories like this are becoming all too frequent and here is the latest one from the Beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52175891

15 deaths, but read on and it could well be 25 out of 69 beds.
I spent most days of 4 years visiting a residential care home and without question, 90% of deaths occurred over the winter period. Mostly from what one would describe as minor ailments for the majority of the population.
Hardly surprising therefore, that coronavirus is a death sentence in these establishments.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 08, 2020, 18:19
https://twitter.com/Velorooms/status/1247913167541415939?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 08, 2020, 19:02
Question for the Dutch members of the forum - I remember reading a piece that said that your national policy was pretty similar to the Swedish model, but haven't heard anything about it (even though Sweden has made the press over here).

Is it the case that you are taking a similar approach?

Florry may give better insights, but for a start: those plans were abanoned after a couple of days. At the moment they have one of the highest death rates in Europa (~10% or so - although they don't seem to do much testing - 4000 tests a day, which is the same Austria does for half the population - which is likely to have a huge influence on the numbers of course) and Germany has taken something like ~50 ICU patients, so I guess they are at the limit with their capacities in the highly affected parts of the country.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 09, 2020, 07:00
https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1247940339794694147?

As understanding increases Goal posts are moving, not unexpected

I think the long term of this will be major hospitals will have CoVid-19 wards permanently, there will be new outbreaks from season to season. Some will survive only to be infected again. Those with lower immunity will want to be very careful. Vaccine shots may end up being a yearly thing.

Just a few rambled thoughts
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 09, 2020, 08:55
as already expected, studies have now shown that air pollution is a major factor leading to more death or serious illness from Covid-19

“This study provides evidence that counties that have more polluted air will experience higher risks of death for Covid-19,” said Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard who led the study.

Counties with higher pollution levels, Dr. Dominici said, “will be the ones that will have higher numbers of hospitalizations, higher numbers of deaths and where many of the resources should be concentrated.”


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/climate/air-pollution-coronavirus-covid.html
https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 09, 2020, 10:45
in Germany, first intermediate results from the cluster study in Gangelt (PCR tests, antibody tests and so on in a small city in the Kreis Heinsberg, one of the most affected parts in Germany - some information in English can be found here (https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-german-scientists-hope-to-find-answers-on-coronavirus-in-countrys-worst-hit-spot)) have just been presented (in a Videostream (in German) (https://tinyurl.com/u6qn7ld)).

The representative study came to the result that the infection rate in Gangelt is 15%, leading to a mortality rate of 0,38% among those infected by Covid-19.

Another thing I found interested is, that based on their findings so far, they think that the degree of severity of a person's disease is (among others) based on the number of pathogens he picked up. So if I understood this correctly, by keeping that number low due to a more controlled infection process, it could potentially be possible to achieve herd immunity at a lower death rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 09, 2020, 12:18
as already expected, studies have now shown that air pollution is a major factor leading to more death or serious illness from Covid-19

True! a study led by the University of Bari and that of Bologna led to that conclusion too. The virus could be spread via air pollution and especially fine particulates that you can find in the area of Wuhan, in Lombardy and in Alsace, too. Brescia is one of the most polluted town in Italy and so is Mulhouse in France. Mulhouse is where it all started for France (it seems that it was due to a gathering of an evangelical group), the 5th most polluted town in the country while only the 34th largest town in terms of population. It also seems that the winds might play a role in bringing up that pollution to some places near to the mountains, as happened in Iran. Big cities like Tehran are heavily polluted and infected by the virus. Same for the Po Valley in Italy. Same for the Rhine Valley at the French German border! So you have the Southern winds pushing all the fine particulates from the French industrial areas alongside the foothills of the Jura and the Vosges, all the way to Mulhouse, while Northern winds brings pollution from German industrial areas also down there in Mulhouse, which is really badly situated in this respect.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 09, 2020, 13:13
Another thing I found interested is, that based on their findings so far, they think that the degree of severity of a person's disease is (among others) based on the number of pathogens he picked up.

"The number of pathogens." What does this mean? Is it the equivalent of getting a "heavier dose" of coronavirus?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 09, 2020, 13:43
True! a study led by the University of Bari and that of Bologna led to that conclusion too. The virus could be spread via air pollution and especially fine particulates that you can find in the area of Wuhan, in Lombardy and in Alsace, too. Brescia is one of the most polluted town in Italy and so is Mulhouse in France. Mulhouse is where it all started for France (it seems that it was due to a gathering of an evangelical group), the 5th most polluted town in the country while only the 34th largest town in terms of population. It also seems that the winds might play a role in bringing up that pollution to some places near to the mountains, as happened in Iran. Big cities like Tehran are heavily polluted and infected by the virus. Same for the Po Valley in Italy. Same for the Rhine Valley at the French German border! So you have the Southern winds pushing all the fine particulates from the French industrial areas alongside the foothills of the Jura and the Vosges, all the way to Mulhouse, while Northern winds brings pollution from German industrial areas also down there in Mulhouse, which is really badly situated in this respect.

You could also make the connection that most of the most polluted areas are also the most densely populated.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 09, 2020, 14:08
"The number of pathogens." What does this mean? Is it the equivalent of getting a "heavier dose" of coronavirus?

yeah, that's what I meant to say. My English isn't good enough to be fluent the medical terms (and that seemed to be the most fitting one I found in the dictionaries)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 09, 2020, 14:25
https://twitter.com/KurtNiceHHL/status/1247707381909291013?

That is 1 way to put it :lol
Unfortunately, that guy isn't the Ugandan police chief, but apparently a Gambian living in New York.
:shh
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 09, 2020, 14:48
Really haha
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 09, 2020, 14:49
Some of the results of the random testing in Stockholm have come back. 2.5% had +ve to CoVid-19

Edit as this was done a week ago, they have said that with their model they extrapolate that too mean about 10% or slightly higher have been infected in Stockholm. So about 120 000
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 09, 2020, 16:45
Italy has set end of April as the time they will start reducing restrictions, if everything heads in the same way as it is heading now
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 09, 2020, 17:03
yeah, that's what I meant to say. My English isn't good enough to be fluent the medical terms (and that seemed to be the most fitting one I found in the dictionaries)

No, I think your English was more than adequate for this. It's fine. I would probably use the same words for it.

I just didn't know if that meant that someone had been repeatedly exposed to the virus, of if being exposed from a number of different people was a factor, or if one could be infected, and then infected again, which might compound the severity. Just curious.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 09, 2020, 18:37
You could also make the connection that most of the most polluted areas are also the most densely populated.

That's self evident truth but Mulhouse is the 5th most polluted town in France despite being the 34th largest one in the country (and one of the most infected places in the country). So the town is a lot more polluted than normal.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 09, 2020, 19:07
New York City like you've never seen it. So eerie.  :S

Times Square Is Deserted

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ywN9oaTbwQ0
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 09, 2020, 20:29
https://twitter.com/covsinghtj/status/1246100649957343232
https://twitter.com/Deewalia/status/1246080484813058048
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 10, 2020, 05:16
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/this-virus-could-change-the-way-we-live-for-years-not-months-20200409-p54inu.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 10, 2020, 12:40
Little bit in a paper in Australia about the article Search.

It is causing a bit of discussion, but not unexpected which makes me wonder what is the exit strategy https://www.theage.com.au/national/scientists-at-odds-after-study-finds-coronavirus-antibody-anomaly-20200410-p54iwm.html

Do countries in lockdown wait until vaccine or open up then close down again or?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 10, 2020, 13:22
77 new deaths and 540 new cases for the Swedish experiments.

Denmark and Norway have seen much less +ve and deaths. Interesting conclusion from the Danish health authorities they have concluded that they have reached to top and coming down this time, so they are expecting a spike or 2 more?

Was up to the wards with more face shields. We have a section (All the operation for intensive CoVid-19 treatment, it takes 6 people to roll the patients to there stomach, which helps with breathing) . We have 4 wards at the moment for those who need help but not intensive care and 1 ward which acts as an Inbetweeners ward before and after intensive care.

Lots of people and lots of resources.

People with breathing related problem at hospital is running at about 14% higher than normal last week, it Was 7% higher 2 weeks ago
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 11, 2020, 14:00
Today's newspaper headline is that Connecticut will stay locked down for at least another six weeks, until May 20. They're expecting to see peak coronavirus activity on April 21st. I suppose they'll reassess as the end of May approaches, but they're going to have an increasingly difficult time keeping people at home as the weather warms.

Easter Sunday is supposed to be partly sunny and pleasant here tomorrow, with temps around 58ºF/ 14ºC.
I'm curious to see the result of that as so many traditional family gatherings will be cancelled, and people will be longing for some sense of connectivity. In many years around here, Easter weekend just happens to coincide with the first really nice Spring weather, although we've been way ahead of the curve this year. If they close down the parks the way they've been doing, I do wonder just where people will end up, and what they'll doing.

What I've been seeing is police outside of parks with road signs that read "Parking Lot Full." When in reality, the parking lots are mostly empty because they never let many people in to begin with. I'm not sure if this approach is deliberate deception, or if they're simply working with available signage. Most people probably just figure that they're being turned away because the park is too crowded, when in reality the paths and trails are mostly empty. It makes for some nice unobstructed riding for me, as no one ever bothers me at the gate when I'm on my bike. Although if people catch onto to what's happening, they may choose a different way to approach the park.

For the time being, the secret is safe with me.  :shh  :-x  :cool
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 11, 2020, 14:37
Louisiana church expecting 2,000 at Easter service despite coronavirus:
'Satan and a virus will not stop us'
 (https://thehill.com/homenews/news/492277-louisiana-church-expecting-2000-at-easter-service-despite-coronavirus-satan-and)
:fp

Quote
While many churches across the nation plan to hold their Easter services online Sunday, a Louisiana pastor says his church near Baton Rouge is expecting a crowd of 2,000 or more despite federal coronavirus guidance advising social distancing. 

“Satan and a virus will not stop us,” Rev. Tony Spell told Reuters. “God will shield us from all harm and sickness. We are not afraid. We are called by God to stand against the Antichrist creeping into America’s borders. We will spread the Gospel.”
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 11, 2020, 18:04
Louisiana church expecting 2,000 at Easter service despite coronavirus:
'Satan and a virus will not stop us'
 (https://thehill.com/homenews/news/492277-louisiana-church-expecting-2000-at-easter-service-despite-coronavirus-satan-and)
:fp
Some of them may find out soon enough how the virus will, indeed, stop them. :S :fp
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 11, 2020, 18:09
https://twitter.com/mark_dow/status/1248974435337383937?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 11, 2020, 19:47
The Vatican (and the traditional Catholic Church with Latin mass) approves of video streamed mass attendancy and here mass is tolerated with only 20 people inside the church. Though I guess it might depend on the size of the church. There were fewer masses organised during the Spanish flu pandemic as well and mass can be cancelled in times of flood just as you can see in the second Don Camillo film.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 11, 2020, 20:10
https://twitter.com/mark_dow/status/1248974435337383937?

So it seems that some folks haven't progressed past the 14th Century, where I understand prayer was the preferred option to fend off the Black Death. :fp
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 11, 2020, 20:14
Large crowd gatherings causing a virus to spread was only scientifically observed in the 19th century. So that's anachronism :fp.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 12, 2020, 11:10
Been a very interesting thing watching non Seeds combined with not being experts in epidemiology yelling at each other on Twitter.

While not being any sort of expert on anything. I will repeat that no one could have done what Sweden did with the same results,  Swedes are different end of.

Anyway I read a horrible stat today.

Of those entering the hospital system in New York of CoVid-19 80% are not coming out a live.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 12, 2020, 13:27
 
UK please - based members ..

Citing a recent medical paper, Smith said it was now believed the infection's attack rate was close to a few per cent, so two to three million people in the UK have probably already had the virus.

"Attack rate"? What does that mean?

(Asking on behalf of my Mom *en and Dad *scotland)  :P

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 12, 2020, 13:34
Of those entering the hospital system in New York of CoVid-19 80% are not coming out a live.

I don't believe that's true.
Where are you getting those stats from? :slow

Here's an interesting page (https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-by-age-chart-2020-3) with graphs and demographic breakdowns. Interesting to note the increase in total cases of 3x to 4x in the young and middle-aged over the elderly.

(https://i.insider.com/5e8b9e35dcd88c7ff16745f4?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 12, 2020, 13:53
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1248814741893476352
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 12, 2020, 14:28
RIP Tim
https://youtu.be/wHnvwf0VJkE
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 12, 2020, 14:34
I don't believe that's true.
Where are you getting those stats from? :slow

Here's an interesting page (https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-coronavirus-cases-deaths-hospitalizations-by-age-chart-2020-3) with graphs and demographic breakdowns. Interesting to note the increase in total cases of 3x to 4x in the young and middle-aged over the elderly.

(https://i.insider.com/5e8b9e35dcd88c7ff16745f4?width=700&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

Run through Google Translate

SVT's and SR's US correspondents Stefan Åsberg and Ginna Lindberg, respectively, talk about the factors that play into the fact that the infection hit so hard against the US and New York. New York now has more infected people than any country in the world. - It is a healthcare system in the United States that usually has problems, because there are so many people who are uninsured and who do not go to the doctor for minor ailments because they simply cannot afford it. This means that when there is such a huge pressure on healthcare, you do not have the capacity to meet it, says Ginna Lindberg. - When I left the United States, they talked about completely horrific numbers, that only 20 percent of those admitted to intensive care in New York survived. These are unreal numbers. It should be remembered that the population in the United States has a different health situation than we have here in Sweden. About ten percent suffer from diabetes, twenty percent are overweight. These are the ones that are largely unable to cope with this virus, says Stefan Åsberg. Chief physician David Konrad told the studio earlier today that more than 80 percent of patients admitted to intensive care in Stockholm survived.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 12, 2020, 15:06
https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1248814741893476352

Not defending the Chinese regime but does Maher know that forced sterilization has been enforced in the very democratic Canada (my spider sense tells me that it also was the case in the US but I can't tell for sure) against the First Nations and in the context of eugenism (and feminism!).

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/eugenics
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 12, 2020, 16:39
RIP Tim
https://youtu.be/wHnvwf0VJkE


https://twitter.com/grahamkw/status/1249348203595681792?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 12, 2020, 17:36
1st cases and deaths are coming from the slums in Indian
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 13, 2020, 02:31
1st cases and deaths are coming from the slums in India

I was wondering why they've been largely absent from the news cycle. Personally, I don't think I've heard the subcontinent mentioned even once in the non-stop coronavirus coverage.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 13, 2020, 02:35
More potentially troubling news.

Coronavirus Can Live in Patients for Five Weeks After Contagion (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/coronavirus-can-live-in-patients-for-five-weeks-after-contagion)


Quote
Patients with the new coronavirus keep the pathogen in their respiratory tract for as long as 37 days, a new study found, suggesting they could remain infectious for many weeks.

Currently, the recommended isolation period after exposure is 14 days to avoid spreading the virus. But if people remain contagious long after their symptoms have vanished, they may unwittingly propagate the pathogen after they return from quarantine.

The real takeaway, I suppose, is that the world has yet to fully understand COVID-19.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 13, 2020, 03:09
Tell them that, since they're in lockdown over there...

Au contraire! They're both very much over here these days.   :D
*usa *usa *usa *usa *usa *usa

And FWIW, they met in *ca.  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 13, 2020, 08:28
a ~pdf study in Oxford (https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0) has now come to the conclusion, that there's the possibility that 50% of the (British) population has carried the virus already, so that herd immunity may actually be not far away. 3.5 million antibody test kits have been ordered to verify that study

...seems like no one checked if they were working or not though. Now the UK has 3.5 million inaccurate antibody test kits.

https://www.pressreader.com/article/281732681608623
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 13, 2020, 11:05
Quite a balanced article

Los Angeles Times: Sweden sticks to 'low-scale' lockdown despite rise in coronavirus deaths.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/as-virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-to-low-scale-lockdown 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 13, 2020, 13:34
Sweden might have a bit of a spike tomorrow after Easter.

Also the EU might look at making a ban of visitors to older people homes for the rest of the year :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 13, 2020, 14:00
...seems like no one checked if they were working or not though. Now the UK has 3.5 million inaccurate antibody test kits.

https://www.pressreader.com/article/281732681608623

 Inspiring stuff from our Brexit standard bearers. :fp


 Also the EU might look at making a ban of visitors to older people homes for the rest of the year :o

That's the sort of crazy rational that helped the buffoons above go their separate way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 13, 2020, 16:40
Trump about to say too Dr Fauci

Your fired ... :fp
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 13, 2020, 17:00
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1249705075204927490?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 13, 2020, 18:45
RIP Tim

Other actor who's been swept by the virus is Maurice Barrier, at age 87. He was known for his supporting roles in comedies that starred Gérard Depardieu or Jean-Paul Belmondo. In the eighties he was really prolific. Never in the spotlight but a face you could notice.

(https://files.newsnetz.ch/story/1/1/4/11492213/8/topelement.jpg)(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BOWE5M2NjYmQtYjMxZC00ZTBiLTk5MDctMzAxZTA3MmJhMGU5XkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMjUyNDk2ODc@._V1_SY1000_CR0,0,1774,1000_AL_.jpg)

To be honest, I saw an interview of him last year and he was not really fit at all anymore. He even was hospitalised with lung problems before contracting the virus at hospital. So probably the virus shortened his life for a few mnths, perhaps a year or so but I'm afraid it was no longer a life for him.  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on April 13, 2020, 21:32
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52269398

Captain Tom, we salute you sir...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 14, 2020, 08:26
https://twitter.com/RusveloTeam/status/1249958195558318080

feels like it has been so much longer than 1 1/2 months ago since that started
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 14, 2020, 13:42
Bit of a sh*t day personally.

Was up to help a patient with spine injury only to find out she had been abused at home.

One of the negative impacts of people being home is abuse in the home front increasing
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on April 14, 2020, 16:09
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52269398

Captain Tom, we salute you sir...

The total raised has now reached £2.0 million.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 14, 2020, 18:31
One of the negative impacts of people being home is abuse in the home front increasing
Sadly, such developments were predicted weeks ago. I feel quite bad for those trapped by all the current restrictions. For many, it really is a living hell.

we were talking exactly about how little attention seems to be going to the mental health implications of the whole covid response
I'm seeing more and more stories about just that. The negative effects of this are going to be long-lasting, and the quicker we can return to a sense of normalcy, the better.  I suspect there's going to be a lot of emotional fallout in the wake of this pandemic.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 14, 2020, 18:38
Unsurprisingly, some of these problems take care of themselves.


Virginia pastor who defiantly held church service dies of coronavirus
 (https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/)

(https://fwiw.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2020/04/richmond-pastor-e1586812127491.png?w=1200)

Quote
An evangelical pastor died of COVID-19 just weeks after proudly showing off how packed his Virginia church was — and vowing to keep preaching “unless I’m in jail or the hospital.”
Quote
I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said,
Okay, then. Duly noted.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 14, 2020, 22:23
Garden centres are now an essential industry - and worthy of specific mention - as part of that construction supply chain! I can almost hear the choruses of joy from gardeners across the province as I type!!!  :D :D

I know of one person at least (who is currently out getting our groceries for the week) whose mental health will skyrocket when she reads that she can go plant shopping from tomorrow!!!!!   ;) ;) ;)

in Austria DIY markets (they are mostly combined with garden centers over here, no idea if it's the same in Canada) got 83% in a "what shops would you like to open first again" survey :dizzy
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 15, 2020, 01:41
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVfyBh7U4AE51gk?format=png&name=small)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on April 15, 2020, 15:08
The total raised has now reached £2.0 million.

Forget 2.0 million, the total raised has now passed £7.0 million.

What a man he is..


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 15, 2020, 18:56
In non CoVid-19 news Little Miss JSG has Chicken Pox
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 15, 2020, 20:32
In non CoVid-19 news Little Miss JSG has Chicken Pox

I still have a few small scars from my bout as a kid.

Wishing you and yours well.  <3
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 16, 2020, 00:56
In non CoVid-19 news Little Miss JSG has Chicken Pox

Get well soon.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 16, 2020, 05:12
Not quite balance 're life as normal anyone who can work from home is

https://youtu.be/Z7yfK0kCAfU
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 16, 2020, 09:38
In non CoVid-19 news Little Miss JSG has Chicken Pox
God bedring!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 16, 2020, 15:59
UK figures published show 91% of those dying with Coronavirus had underlying health problems.
On average, individuals had 3 other health conditions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52308783
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 16, 2020, 16:23
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/what-doctors-on-the-front-lines-in-new-york-wish-they-d-known-a-month-ago-20200415-p54k83.html

Google's proning
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 16, 2020, 16:31
Swedish experiment update.

1st some stats 130 new deaths 600ish new cases. The Government medical people have also made the point that Swedish death stats are real stats, where as most other countries are not. Many do not include older people homes, Sweden's do. So they guesstmate at least a 1/3 more should be added to many countries.

Locally our hospital is openning up 1 more non CoVid-19  ward, if this a sign the hospital needs are less CoVid-19 more normal patients or some other issue not 100% sure.

Looks like I and all co workers will only working 2 days a week in May and forward. More cycling and running for me it seems :D

Some of the higher figures are catch up after Easter. But news is that we are heading to the peak now due to the older population being infected and not making it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 16, 2020, 16:43
Proning hahah as in being put on your stomach or prone position.

Sorry long day does not take much to get there.

It takes between 6-8 people to more a ventilated patient from there back to front
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 17, 2020, 11:07
 China getting it in the neck for doing pretty much the same as every other country, with regards the death toll:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52321529

 Meanwhile, Denmark lifts some some critically important restrictions.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52322249

 :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 17, 2020, 12:08
This was in The Guardian yesterday. IMO it's correct, unfortunately.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/16/august-tour-de-france-recipe-for-disaster-says-public-health-expert
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 17, 2020, 13:01
maybe, who knows though. We are one month or so into this in Europe, August is still another 4 away.

A lot of things can change until then, and if not, then I guess it's about time to adopt to it anyway and start to live with this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 17, 2020, 14:02
maybe, who knows though. We are one month or so into this in Europe, August is still another 4 away.

A lot of things can change until then, and if not, then I guess it's about time to adopt to it anyway and start to live with this virus.

 Quite.
Of course a public health expert is going to look at this and come to such a conclusion. I am quite sure that an economic expert would come to a similar "recipe for disaster" conclusion but for completely different reasons.
 
We can't simply lockdown the world, hoping to make things 100% safe, waiting on a vaccine that may arrive in a year, but may take much longer.

 Plain fact of the matter is there will come a point not that far in the future when the catastrophic effect on the global economy will lead to far more fatalities than will be attributed to this virus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 17, 2020, 15:38
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 17, 2020, 16:40
Quite.
Of course a public health expert is going to look at this and come to such a conclusion. I am quite sure that an economic expert would come to a similar "recipe for disaster" conclusion but for completely different reasons.
 
We can't simply lockdown the world, hoping to make things 100% safe, waiting on a vaccine that may arrive in a year, but may take much longer.

 Plain fact of the matter is there will come a point not that far in the future when the catastrophic effect on the global economy will lead to far more fatalities than will be attributed to this virus.


It’ll all come down to hospital capacity either way.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 17, 2020, 17:31
PTSD is becoming a issue with in the hospital system. Due to the fact in intensive care you need certain skill set. So those with the skill set are working longer shifts with multiple days in a row.,15 - 20 days . The issue is the death. 0 contact everyone dies alone. It is happening so much that it is grinding people down
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 17, 2020, 20:22
It’ll all come down to hospital capacity either way.

 It actually comes down to funding.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on April 17, 2020, 20:44


Let's make that £20 million and rising.

Bloody virus it killed the quote..
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on April 17, 2020, 21:46
It actually comes down to funding.

The measures the govt has put in so far are expected to be about £15bn per month in grants and furlough payments. Much of the rest is loans, deferrals and funny capital ‘methods’ like QE/bonds which have costs associated, but nothing like the headline figures of hundreds of billions as many will be paid back. Clearly in addition to this is the impact of greatly reduced tax revenues for a short period of a few months, which’ll be bigger long-term if the govt doesn’t protect small businesses.

Compare that to the £600bn shortfall in govt income through a no-deal Brexit by 2030 (albeit obviously not condensed into a few months, but over 10 years). That’s May’s Govt’s Impact Studies figures. A short-term shock for sure, but in the grand scheme of things somewhat less than the avoidable Brexit scenario which all the Tories have been pushing, seemingly without a care in the world.

Where there’s a will, there’s a way. It all boils down to preference, the NHS being unable to cope would be a PR disaster, however Brexit is manageable given the media’s right-leaning slant and the time period involved, but at the end of the day it’s all got to be funded from somewhere.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 17, 2020, 22:00
maybe, who knows though. We are one month or so into this in Europe, August is still another 4 away.

A lot of things can change until then, and if not, then I guess it's about time to adopt to it anyway and start to live with this virus.

The same expert has set her sights upon the Olympics today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52331657

15 month predictions, now.
If we are no further forward by then, I doubt the Olympics will much matter again.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 18, 2020, 10:35
This was in The Guardian yesterday. IMO it's correct, unfortunately.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/apr/16/august-tour-de-france-recipe-for-disaster-says-public-health-expert

Quote
Sridhar pointed to a series of potential risks, that might even lead to the Tour being halted if there was an outbreak within the race convoy during the race.

That would be the worst scenario, IMO.

Imagine? If they put all that in motion only to have to slam the brakes on part-way through, they'd be met with nothing but derision from all sides, and the negative impact on the sport would be far worse than any doping scandal. It'd be a nightmare.

In other similar news:
The mayor of Los Angeles has been proposing that he may cancel all sporting and concert events until 2021.

Some major news outlets have reported this as being "through 2021," which I believe is a misinterpretation. But nothing would surprise me these days. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 18, 2020, 14:46
https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1251500007963811840?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 18, 2020, 16:46
 Here in the UK, it's local councils now asking for a bail out, claiming that without an injection of cash, they won't be able to carry out normal, basic services.............not that they carry out many in the first place.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52339266

Meanwhile in Wales, some shops are exploiting the situation by charging as much as £1 per loo roll and up to £15 for a small hand sanitiser.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52326594


In cycling related news, I am pretty sure that Rohan Dennis is ready to race the TDF............on it's original dates.


https://twitter.com/WestemeyerSusan/status/1251473311554588678

 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 18, 2020, 17:29
Insta account closed and rumour of authorities involved for the angry man :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Leadbelly on April 18, 2020, 18:13
Let's make that £20 million and rising.

I see lots of other people are trying to muscle in on the act now. Old dears climbing stairs and Welsh men walking round the outside of their bungalows.

Colonel Tom is also releasing a charity single. I was hoping for Funky Gibbon in tribute to Tim Brooke Taylor, but it's YNWA.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: M Gee on April 18, 2020, 21:23
Thanks DB thought they might be a bit right wing as they changed the Name of the Virus during the text. All the Swedish quotes were well translated though
Buckley was an incredible thinker and debater. He was also logical. Even in his lifetime, the National Review was a bit more right than mainstream. However, it currently seems to me to have abandoned Buckley's pension for clear thinking, in favor of persuasive writing (agenda comes first).

To think clearly about Sweden bucking the mainstream, one should read other sources as well. Sweden's authorities have admitted that they will see deaths from covid-19 as a result of their policies. Some Swedes, at least, are not happy with their gov't on this.

In a few months, we will be looking back at Brazil and Sweden, and will have a better basis for comparison. Or that other outlier, with whom I think Trump shares a lot in common: Lukashenko.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 18, 2020, 23:26
I see lots of other people are trying to muscle in on the act now. Old dears climbing stairs and Welsh men walking round the outside of their bungalows.

Colonel Tom is also releasing a charity single. I was hoping for Funky Gibbon in tribute to Tim Brooke Taylor, but it's YNWA.
Nice to see that old folks can be inspired to walk distances for a good cause ...

... but this isn't some admirable charity doing something neat.
It's the NHS. The health service. The most essential thing of the whole country.
That isn't something people should have to chip in from their private purses - that's something you pay taxes for so that it be in good working order.
Plus, 20 million, while it may sound like a lot of money, is nothing more than a drop in the bucket as far as the NHS is concerned.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 19, 2020, 07:35
Meanwhile in Wales, some shops are exploiting the situation by charging as much as £1 per loo roll and up to £15 for a small hand sanitiser.
That wouldn't be allowed here. There would be legal implications for price gauging on such things in the midst of this, plus you'd be met by a very angry public if you tried. As a comparison: the local pharmacy (CVS) has been selling a generic brand of hand sanitizer for about $2.00 (or about the same price as a bar of soap), and equally inexpensive paper products. Only one or two per customer is allowed at a time, but this is a vast improvement to the empty shelves of just a couple of weeks ago.


Quote
In cycling related news, I am pretty sure that Rohan Dennis is ready to race the TDF............on it's original dates.
I had completely forgotten that Dennis had even signed with Ineos. #ineos  :-x

But is being inside his car still in violation of the Spanish quarantine? If so, no wonder his patience is wearing thin.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on April 19, 2020, 10:18
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52325713

Here you go fus, this is where Capt Tom's money will be spent.

I like the sound of "wobble rooms".

Hope the link works  :(
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 19, 2020, 11:31
https://twitter.com/SSbike/status/1251810494651998209?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 20, 2020, 07:41
 As the season rapidly approaches and we exist in a state of panic, I had been wondering whether or not it had the potential to clog up the system.
Of course it does:
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52349794
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 20, 2020, 15:29
As the season rapidly approaches and we exist in a state of panic, I had been wondering whether or not it had the potential to clog up the system.
Of course it does:
 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52349794

Yep and vice versa.  Friend who is a ICU nurse, woke with Hayfever symptoms. Got tested due to her work and +ve for CoVid-19.

And her hayfever meds helped lesson symptoms
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 20, 2020, 15:34
So a little update on the Swedish experiment.

Curve is starting to flatten. But people are not following recommendations as well. 8% more went into central Stockholm last week, and more restaurants having too many people in them.

Hospital system is coping still, people are getting tired though after such long hours and days
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 20, 2020, 16:09
Yep, she took her normal hayfever meds and felt a different.

Important to note, she has recovered had no cough or ARDs just very mild symptoms.

Maybe she had hayfever and asymptomatic CoVid-19 who knows. I definitely would not be saying that hayfever meds are any form of treatment for CoVid-19, just that many with Hayfever may be CoVid-19 +ve.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 20, 2020, 16:26
.............................just that many with Hayfever may be CoVid-19 +ve.

I am sure governments have duly noted this possibility and will trot it out, should they feel the need to keep restrictions in place.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 21, 2020, 04:52
Just read a headline saying 1 in five 5 year olds will fall behind due to CoVid-19 home school .

Reaching much. Come on a 5 year old
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 21, 2020, 06:14
Nice little info on the way the Virus attacks the lungs

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on April 21, 2020, 09:23
Just read a headline saying 1 in five 5 year olds will fall behind due to CoVid-19 home school .

Reaching much. Come on a 5 year old
Five-year-olds go to school?! :S
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 21, 2020, 13:18
Right then Swedish experiments update.

Maths models For Stockholm show.

For every confirmed case ie in Hospital there is 999 other positive that have CoVid-19 but do not require or get hospital care.

May 1st. 1/3 of Stockholm will have had CoVid-19.

All models are saying the curve in Stockholm is flattened.

From me.
Denmark and Norway will be going to lessen restrictions what will be interesting is how big wave 2 is compared to the Sweden's wave. This will help decide which system worked best, not all but a fair bit
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 22, 2020, 18:20
https://twitter.com/ColumbiaSurgery/status/1252976395829096451?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 23, 2020, 15:32
https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1253325660459655169?

Ohh and got interviewed for a national paper today on post infection affects of CoVid-19 on the body, mostly feet. Not sure if or what will find it's way into the paper.

But basically due to poor oxygen there is a type of ischemia that occurs in some patients.

Not 100% my area, but they some how got my name and number  :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 23, 2020, 17:14
 Thanks JSG for these daily updates and medical snippets, as it seems that all the other contributors have succumbed to Lockdown Lethargy.  ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 23, 2020, 17:49
I have TBH really enjoyed and needed this thread. It has helped me deal with all the information sorting.

So thanks to all, nice little place we have here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 23, 2020, 21:52
and more retail starting from about 10 days later (which is when they will see line ups for hairdressers that rival the line ups for toilet paper at the start of the lockdown!!)

over here everyone will need to wear a mask (both hairdresser as well as the customer), dry hair cuts are not allowed, and newspapers/journals are forbidden as well.

So, well... long hair instead isn't that bad either, I guess :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on April 24, 2020, 11:29
update from Western Australia

we had pretty low cases anyway - but WA have now had 3 new cases in the last 7 days.

Schools are going back next week for some ... they are doing a staggered start to the next term (school holidays at the moment) - so my daughter actually goes back to school in week 4 of the term.  Will do distance learning until then.

Government is meeting at the end of April, and we are expecting a reduction in the restrictions.  I would think that they will increase the numbers in social gatherings, and possibly allow the reopening of cafes and restuarants - allowing 1 person per 4 square metres.

It will be quite a long time though, before they open the borders and allow any kind of international travel - and before they allow mass gatherings/sporting events.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 24, 2020, 16:50
Sweden has had a 1000 more deaths than normal for 2 weeks in early March.

Schools for kids under 15 are open here but older not. So kindergarten and up to middle high school.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 24, 2020, 22:01
I'll admit to have gotten a bit burnt out on coronavirus news, and somewhat started tuning it out, as it seems to be the only thing in the news these days. The numbers, stats, etc...while I do find much of interesting, I've just lost all my emotional attachment to any of it. Plus, I've been a bit overwhelmed with trying to care for my elderly parents. They're both Covid-free, but everything has become much more complicated and seemingly time-consuming as a result of the pandemic. All their doctors appointments have been online, and they certainly can't navigate any of that themselves. In addition to a whole slew of related issues that leaves me mostly exhausted with each passing day.

But I should've been posting more frequent updates here, if for no other reason than to keep track of local developments, and a timeline, as they unfold.

That being said, Connecticut instituted mandatory face masks in public this week, and the National Guard has been teaming up with local hospitals in anticipation of an increased patient load. The most shocking statistic this week was the deaths of thirty-five (35!) people at a single nursing home a few towns away.

Quote
April 24

Governor Ned Lamont announced positive COVID-19 cases stood at 23,921 with 1,764 deaths associated with the virus.

Lamont said there are 1,877 patients hospitalized, but said this was the biggest drop in hospitalizations to date.
As of Friday, 74,038 tests have been completed.

Late May was originally proposed as a target for reopening businesses, but that's already being pushed back to June now.

More and more mobil testing centers have become available, with long lines of cars at each of them, but you still need a doctors recommendation to have access to a test.

Essential items have been fluctuating as far as store stock goes. Limited amounts of paper products are returning to the shelves, but they quickly sell out. Most grocery items are available, but on any given week the frozen food aisle might be mostly barren, then the following week the dairy section will be greatly reduced. All of which means more frequent shopping and more trips to the store. It's a bit of shell game trying to anticipate what will be available and when.

Our local hospital has been sending out some very interesting emails in their attempts for transparency. I'll try to post some of the graphics/info later. It's all very well presented.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 25, 2020, 07:47
I'll admit to have gotten a bit burnt out on coronavirus news, and somewhat started tuning it out, as it seems to be the only thing in the news these days. The numbers, stats, etc...while I do find much of interesting, I've just lost all my emotional attachment to any of it. 

 The media seem oblivious to this fact. Of the handful of people I have spoken to recently, several have mentioned that they no longer watch the news as they are fed up of hearing about Coronavirus.
Meanwhile, the BBC persist in using both their main channels to give uninterrupted (repeated) coverage of mostly inane video link interviews and 2 hours of the stupefyingly boring PM's daily update.
All this achieves is to fuel a communal sense that we are all living our own, personal Groundhog Days.

Meanwhile, I give you this: how lockdown in London doesn't apply, each Thursday at 8pm.

https://twitter.com/Urban_Pictures/status/1253411239360749576

https://twitter.com/notlistenning1/status/1253429362587602951
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 25, 2020, 11:01
New medical issue occurring with younger patients

Blood clots, researchers can't work out why and best treatment
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on April 26, 2020, 11:58
Not everybody's equal with this lockdown. I'm rather privileged, I have a balcony, a garden and a relatively quiet area. I love telecommuting but some mates are living in a small flat or a studio flat, with no balcony and merely 30m². They get depressed and sick ...


Others are really privileged. Mick Jagger chose to spend the lockdown in his own castle in France : Château de Fourchette.

(https://images.lanouvellerepublique.fr/image/upload/5b5bbadd63ec621c698b4574.jpg)

The castle is situated near the village of Pocé-sur-Cisse, in the region of Tours, not far from Amboise, a region he used to go to on holiday in his childhood. It used to be the Duke of Choiseul's estate (1719-1765), foreign secretary of King Louis XV, who gave Canada to England. Mick bought the castle in 1980, for 2,2M French franks at that time but he had restauration works made for an estimated 3M €. He's got a large park, closed by high walls, a swimming pool, tennis courts and a recording studio.

In several pictures and videos he posted some historical pieces can be seen. The singer placed some baldaquin beds and Louis XVI or Napoleonic style pieces of furniture. He seems not to leave the estate and is always delivered his meal, which is received by his warden.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7pZgQepXfA
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 26, 2020, 21:24
There's been what I would term slightly "darker" down-turn to social interactions around here. Now that the state governor has mandated the wearing of masks in public (although I believe the official rules only applied "if social distancing couldn't be maintained), people have become oddly paranoid and judgmental.

Whereas only a week or so ago I was commenting on how calm, sympathetic and supportive of one another the public mood seemed to be, that has now transformed itself into one of minor disdain or even mild disgust if one should find themselves too close to another human being. An unexpected encounter through a doorway, or a surprise turn down the wrong aisle in the grocery store, and suddenly the reaction is as if we're carriers of an air-born ebola. This, even though we're all now much more "protected" than we were a few weeks ago. Everyone is wearing masks, and most are wearing gloves as well. But even on a morning ride through the mostly-empty park earlier today, on two separate occasions I actually had hikers turn their back and literally shield themselves behind trees as our paths crossed on the trail. It's an absurd over-reaction, in my opinion. There are already several paces of distance between us, and we're both wearing facial coverings. I don't know what possesses these people.

I see people walking alone with masks on, which I don't really understand either. If there's no one within shouting distance, then wouldn't you at least want to lower the mask for easier breathing? And why are so many people now driving around with face masks on, alone inside of their own cars?

I find this all to be very discouraging and disappointing. April is typically a rainy month for us, and this one is keeping that tradition alive and well. But as the weather clears, and more people seek the outdoors of late Spring, the radioactive nature of human-to-human behavior is going to only become more irksome and troubling. Since we may very well be in lockdown through June, I can't say I'm looking forward to any of this.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 26, 2020, 22:03
I just wanted to add to the above that I am also throughly sick and tired of seeing newscasters donning their face masks in front of the camera when reporting. It's nothing more than virtue signaling, and I believe it's contributing to the public notion that we're all highly contaminated, even on the other side of the television screen. FFS, is the camera operator not far enough away from them that they have to deliver the news from behind a damn mask?

This seems to be the norm for field reporting now, and sometimes inside the studio as well. On one recent broadcast where the women newscaster wasn't wearing a mask, she apparently felt the need, or was required, to offer an explanation to her viewers about how all her colleagues, were, in fact, wearing masks, and at the time of broadcast she was only one inside the studio, so therefore she wasn't a part of an unsafe environment.

Such antics are crossing into the realm of unhinged hysteria. No newscasters should have to justify the lack of a face mask when broadcasting the news on TV. My patience is wearing thin on such stupidity.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on April 26, 2020, 22:25
And why are so many people now driving around with face masks on, alone inside of their own cars?

there's a EUR 60 penalty for that over here - not for any health related reason though, but because it makes it difficult to identify people driving too quickly ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 26, 2020, 23:46
there's a EUR 60 penalty for that over here - not for any health related reason though, but because it makes it difficult to identify people driving too quickly ;)

That raises another interesting point. Prior to all this madness, face masks weren't permitted in banks and other such places for the fear of robberies, etc. In the past, it would certainly set off alarm bells, both literally and figuratively, if someone walked into, say, a jewelry store wearing a face mask. A lot of those shops are probably closed for business anyway, but convenience stores, gas stations, and liquor stores are all common targets for armed robbery, so I wonder how they're coping in this environment. I would imagine that more than a few people have taken advantage of the opportunity to walk into a shop while wearing a mask, especially as many people are becoming more desperate for money.

I haven't seen any stories in the news of such, which makes me wonder if such stories are being deliberately buried so as not to plant the seeds of thoughts in others.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 05:29
https://amp.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c?__twitter_impression=true

Stats looking at death rates in some countries death rates are up 60%
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on April 27, 2020, 07:50
https://amp.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c?__twitter_impression=true

Stats looking at death rates in some countries death rates are up 60%

"Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments." Quoted from article.

May? I would say it's a certainty in this country, given that cancer treatment has pretty much stopped.

In 2005, 7.6 million people died of cancer out of 58 million deaths worldwide.
Based on projections , cancer deaths will continue to rise with an estimated 11.4 million dying in 2030.
Now those are what I call scary numbers.

The FT piece reads like a guessing game, as there are many variables. Here is one:

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.

 So we have an unknown with an annual variation of 25,000 in just the past few years.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 08:01
DB and Search

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/gunpoint-gold-heist-bandit-in-surgical-mask-robs-collins-st-gold-dealer-20200427-p54nn4.html

Surgical mask robbery :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 08:02
"Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments." Quoted from article.

May? I would say it's a certainty in this country, given that cancer treatment has pretty much stopped.

In 2005, 7.6 million people died of cancer out of 58 million deaths worldwide.
Based on projections , cancer deaths will continue to rise with an estimated 11.4 million dying in 2030.
Now those are what I call scary numbers.

The FT piece reads like a guessing game, as there are many variables. Here is one:

Public Health England estimates that on average 17,000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19. However, the yearly deaths vary widely from a high of 28,330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1,692 in 2018/19. Public Health England does not publish a mortality rate for the flu.

 So we have an unknown with an annual variation of 25,000 in just the past few years.



Yep.

Car accident down, people die due to reduced treatment

CoVid-19 direkt verse CoVid-19 indirect might be the best way to look at it?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 27, 2020, 11:41
Surgical mask robbery :D

At first glance, I thought maybe it was a story about someone stealing surgical masks while wearing a surgical mask.
 :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 15:49
https://twitter.com/mariewalsh18/status/1254752792469618691?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 18:05
Ohh and I made front page of the Paper :lol

Picture from about 10 years ago and 10 kg heavier :;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 27, 2020, 19:33
Ohh and I made front page of the Paper :lol

Picture from about 10 years ago and 10 kg heavier :;)

Indeed! :o

(https://static.standard.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2013/08/05/11/boris.jpg?w968)

 :lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on April 27, 2020, 20:52
Quebec announced today that childcare/kindergarten (in the European sense - no North American) and primary schools will open from 11/5...

Is that May or November? :slow
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 21:14
Indeed! :o

(https://static.standard.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2013/08/05/11/boris.jpg?w968)

 :lol

:p
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 27, 2020, 21:21
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on April 28, 2020, 06:24
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/04/27/can-farts-transmit-covid-19-coronavirus-here-is-what-is-being-said/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

:lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 01, 2020, 00:42
AT LEAST 43 PEOPLE HAVE DIED OF COVID-19 COMPLICATIONS AT A CONNECTICUT CARE FACILITY MAKING IT ONE OF THE HARDEST HIT NURSING HOMES IN THE COUNTRY (https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-coronavirus-kimberly-hall-deaths-20200429-ojddee5fwjashp6w36pwmhitoq-story.html)

Death certificates reviewed by the Hartford Courant show at least 43 people have died of complications from COVID-19 at Kimberly Hall North in Windsor, Connecticut making it one of the hardest hit long-term care facilities in the country.

The number of deaths is likely higher because the data is only through April 24, but the devastation is still on par with a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, that has been the example pointed out many times by CT Gov. Ned Lamont of what the state was trying to avoid. At least 37 deaths have been linked to the coronavirus outbreak at Life Care Center of Kirkland.

As of mid-March, the state listed Kimberly Hall as having 146 patients, which means almost 30% of the patients there have died — a death rate that may be among the highest in the country.

The death certificates also call into question what information the facility has been sharing with state officials. The first time the state Department of Public Health put out data on deaths in nursing homes on April 16, they listed Kimberly Hall North as having nine deaths.

But death certificate data shows that, as of April 16, there had already been 25 COVID-associated deaths — almost three times more than what the facility told state officials.

Kimberly Hall North officials referred questions about the deaths to Genesis HealthCare, a for-profit company which operates the Windsor nursing home along with 500 other facilities around the country. Calls to Genesis weren’t returned Wednesday.

It is unclear why state officials were unaware of that large discrepancy in death totals, but they have been behind in recording deaths in long-term care facilities for weeks and have been frustrated by what some nursing homes have reported.

Several of the victims had either dementia or Alzheimer’s as contributing factors on their death certificate, records show.

After that first death, there were only four days through April 24 without any deaths at Kimberly Hall North, records show. There were seven days when three people died per day, as the virus spread at an alarming rate.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 01, 2020, 07:39
 It's clear now that our most senior citizens, living in care homes, are going to account for a huge percentage of the total deaths from Covid 19.
Two days ago, 4,000 got added to the UK's total.
No doubt many of them suffered from dementia or Alzheimer’s too, but as yet that distinction isn't being made over here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 01, 2020, 12:17
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1256110894985154560?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 01, 2020, 13:52
More updates from today's front page:

Nursing home deaths have accounted for half of all coronavirus deaths in the state, according to the latest public health data released last night.

The data show a massive spike in the number of nursing home deaths to 1,249—an almost 63% increase from the last report only a week ago. Those deaths now make up 55% of the statewide total of 2,257 COVID-19 associated deaths.

More than 4,800 nursing home patients have tested positive for the virus, which is nearly 25% of the state's nursing home capacity.

Further complicating matters, other facilities deemed "assisted living" don't fall under the same category as "nursing homes," but they, too, have had their share of coronavirus-related deaths, as in the case of one such location that had 22 deaths.

It's becoming more and more apparent, to me, at least, that outside of the obvious vulnerable population, shutting down the state has been a massive over-reaction that will carry with it its own political fallout down the road. I, for one, am thoroughly fed up with all of it.

On a more personal note: my father is being transferred from hospital a rehab center/nursing home facility this afternoon. His mandatory COVID-19 test before such a move was allowed came back negative, but to my surprise, I was then asked by the hospital if I wanted to transport him there or if I would prefer that they brought him by ambulance.

Now think about the absurdity of that for a moment. He's been the hospital under observation for a few days, has tested negative for the virus, they then are willing to transfer him to the most vulnerable environment imaginable, and yet they're willing to place him into an unknown vehicle with an unknown driver—in terms of potential virus exposure—and then promptly deliver him to a nursing home, with zero idea as to what he may or may not have been exposed to en route?

Now, how in the world does that make any sense at all?!
It's lunacy. Either that, or this is all BS. All we hear about, 24/7, is the need for "social distancing", excessive hand washing, gloves and masks, sterilize everything, protect the elderly, etc, but then it's perfectly OK to transport the most statistically vulnerable by whatever means available, from hospital to nursing home, and no one bats an eye? Why not just send him by taxi or city bus then? What's the difference?

Either way, my patience is running extremely thin on all of this.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 01, 2020, 15:33
Not sure if I mention it early, but a study [Swedish maybe] followed up a kid who was positive. The kid came into contact with 177 people enough to transmit and not 1 adult became positive after contact with said kid
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 01, 2020, 17:04
 Sums it up.

https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1255847271763230720
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 01, 2020, 17:49
Tbh Kiwi I am all well not really sure.

I think we can all agree now this is not the flu.

I know that Stockholm can cope with wave 1 , we have peaked here.

I know that CoVid-19 is going to be a part of our everyday life for years to come.

Those with a weak immunity or physiological weakness will be picked off. Our medical systems will have to change.

Do I think Sweden has done the right thing as of today. Yes

Could that have done better,  2 areas

1 not burnt their warehouses of PPE

2 protected the elderly better.

Anyone who thinks after summer we are over this IMHO is misguided.

CoVid-19 is with us for a looong time
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: M Gee on May 01, 2020, 19:39
. . .

I know that Stockholm can cope with wave 1 , we have peaked here.

I know that CoVid-19 is going to be a part of our everyday life for years to come.

 . . .

Do I think Sweden has done the right thing as of today. Yes

 . . .
CoVid-19 is with us for a looong time

Covid 19 will be here for a long time, but so is the Spanish Flu. Enough people get used to it, and the incidences will be less deadly.

Personally, AFAIC, Sweden has provided us with the answer about social distancing, and clearly so. The DEATH rate attributed to Covid-19, in Sweden, as of yesterday, was now something like 10 times what it is in Norway or Finland. The rates of infection in Sweden are about 30% higher than Norway, and over 100% higher than Finland.

Just to erase any doubt whatsoever, no, Sweden's approach is not working. Unless you consider those deaths acceptable, as their health minister does.

The numbers are here: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 01, 2020, 21:37
People have died, extremely sad.

Way way too early to say who has the right approach.

FWIW  different approaches are not based around saving lives it is about not over stressing the health system.

New Zealand and Australia have done well in many aspects and being islands can do a lot of opening with less chance of 2nd 3rd waves due to closer boarders.

But too answer what the right approach has been we need to wait 4-5 years and 1 single stat is not going to be the answer
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 01, 2020, 21:41

Covid 19 will be here for a long time, but so is the Spanish Flu. Enough people get used to it, and the incidences will be less deadly.

Personally, AFAIC, Sweden has provided us with the answer about social distancing, and clearly so. The DEATH rate attributed to Covid-19, in Sweden, as of yesterday, was now something like 10 times what it is in Norway or Finland. The rates of infection in Sweden are about 30% higher than Norway, and over 100% higher than Finland.

Just to erase any doubt whatsoever, no, Sweden's approach is not working. Unless you consider those deaths acceptable, as their health minister does.

The numbers are here: https://news.google.com/covid19/map?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en

Not according to the source most commonly being used.

Deaths per million population.

Sweden 263
Denmark  79
Norway 39
Finland  39

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

So none are 10 times better death rates than Sweden; not even close.

Now, just a little further afield:

Netherlands  286
UK  405
Ireland (who locked down early and hard) 256.


The bottom line is that, as JSG pointed out several weeks ago, it will take several years to know for sure whether their approach was better, worse or pretty much the same as the rest.

 


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 02, 2020, 06:41
You also need to look at death over mean to get an idea as well.

On to another Swedish bit of news. The R value for April are in . We started at over 1. Now 25 April 0.85
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 02, 2020, 14:01
You also need to look at death over mean to get an idea as well.

On to another Swedish bit of news. The R value for April are in . We started at over 1. Now 25 April 0.85

 Can I ask who comes up with the numbers and publishes them?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 02, 2020, 14:56
Mellow in Sweden?

Folkhälsomyndigheten which is a Government departments,  but weirdly they are wanting as many facts to become public.

Very open with lots of information and even with stuff that has not gone well ie infection in old people homes

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tegnell-det-betyder-att-pandemin-successivt-kommer-ebba-ut
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 02, 2020, 16:17
Mellow in Sweden?

Folkhälsomyndigheten which is a Government departments,  but weirdly they are wanting as many facts to become public.

Very open with lots of information and even with stuff that has not gone well ie infection in old people homes

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/tegnell-det-betyder-att-pandemin-successivt-kommer-ebba-ut

 Somebody asked me who interested in how the numbers get crunched, so thanks a lot for that.
Me in Sweden? I would certainly prefer to be with you than here in the UK.
My local district in Wales being cited as one of the three with the highest death rate.
Low income, very poor diet and a whole lot of folks who are, shall we say, socially challenged when it comes to following rules.
Needless to say I am completely at odds with this demographic. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 02, 2020, 18:28
Not sure what Google translate will do to the info but here is their website direct to CoVid-19 section

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utbrott/aktuella-utbrott/covid-19/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 02, 2020, 18:54
remdesivir coming to a European hospital near you.

Might not be the wonder drug it has been made out to be in some circles, but has shown promise in some studies less so in others ;) and the EU is looking to approve it ASAP
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 03, 2020, 07:42
European Council Press release 2 May 202014:55The global response: Working together to help the world get better

“Chance favours the prepared mind”. This was the mantra of Louis Pasteur, one of the world’s greatest scientists and a mastermind behind vaccines and breakthroughs which have saved millions of lives spanning three centuries.

Just as it was back then, the world is today confronted with a virus that sweeps across countries and continents, breaking into our homes and our hearts. This virus has caused devastation and pain in all  corners of the world, locking us away from the touch of the people we love, the joy of the things we usually do and the sights of the places we want to be.

This sacrifice, and the heroic efforts of medical and care staff around the world, have helped us bend the trend in many parts of the world. While some are cautiously emerging from lockdown, others are still in isolation and see their daily social and economic lives severely restricted. Consequences could be particularly dramatic in Africa and the Global South as a whole.

But what we all have in common is that none of us can really think or plan ahead with any great certainty about what the future of the pandemic really holds.

This means that we all have a stake in this. None of us is immune to the pandemic and none of us can beat the virus alone. In fact, we will not truly be safe until all of us are safe – across every village, city, region and country in the world. In our interconnected world, the global health system is as strong as its weakest part. We will need to protect each other to protect ourselves.

This poses a unique and truly global challenge. And it makes it imperative that we give ourselves the best chance to defeat it. This means bringing together the world’s best - and most prepared - minds to find the vaccines, treatments and therapies we need to make our world healthy again, while strengthening the health systems that will make them available for all, with a particular attention to Africa.

We are building on the commitment by G20 leaders to develop a massive and co-ordinated response to the virus. We are supporting the call to action that the World Health Organization and other global health actors have made together. For this reason, we have recently launched the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, a global cooperation platform to accelerate and scale-up research, development, access and equitable distribution of the vaccine and other life-saving therapeutics and diagnostics treatments. This laid the foundation for a real international alliance to fight COVID-19.

We are determined to work together, with all those who share our commitment to international co-operation. We are ready to lead and support the global response.

Our aim is simple: on the 4th of May we want to raise, in an online pledging conference, an initial 7.5 billion euros (8 billion dollars) to make up the global funding shortfall estimated by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) and others.

We will all put our own pledges on the table and we are glad to be joined by partners from the world over. The  funds that we raise will kick-start an unprecedented global cooperation between scientists and regulators, industry and governments, international organisations,  foundations and health care professionals. We support the World Health Organisation and we are delighted to join forces with experienced organizations such as  the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust

Every single euro or dollar that we raise together will be channelled primarily through recognised global health organisations such as CEPI, Gavi, the Vaccines Alliance, as well as the Global Fund and Unitaid into developing and deploying as quickly as possible, for as many as possible, the diagnostics, treatments and vaccines that will help the world overcome the pandemic. If we can develop a vaccine that is produced by the world, for the whole world, this will be an unique global public good of the 21st century. Together with our partners, we commit to making it available, accessible and affordable to all.

This is our generation’s duty and we know we can make this happen. High quality and low-cost health technologies are not a daydream. And we have seen how public-private partnerships have managed to make many life-saving vaccines available to the poorest people on earth over the last two decades.

We know this race will be long. As from today, we will sprint towards our first goal but we will be ready for a marathon. The current target will only cover the initial needs: manufacturing and delivering medicines on a global scale will require resources well above the target.

Together, we have to ensure that resources will continue being mobilised and that progress will be made to achieve universal access to vaccination, treatment and testing.

This is a defining moment for the global community. By rallying around science and solidarity today we will sow the seeds for greater unity tomorrow. Guided by the Sustainable Development Goals, we can redesign the power of community, society and global collaboration, to make sure that nobody is left behind.

This is the World against Covid-19. And together we will win.

Signatories: Charles Michel, President of the European Council; Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission; Giuseppe Conte, Prime Minister of Italy; Emmanuel Macron, President of France; Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany; Erna Solberg, Prime Minister of Norway.



Looking to stop profiteering, be interesting to see Trumps reaction
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 03, 2020, 07:49
remdesivir coming to a European hospital near you.

Might not be the wonder drug it has been made out to be in some circles, but has shown promise in some studies less so in others ;) and the EU is looking to approve it ASAP

Thread

https://twitter.com/MarkHoofnagle/status/1256242036015063042?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 03, 2020, 10:53
https://twitter.com/Ash_Stewart_/status/1256811102081556480?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 03, 2020, 14:42
Good thread on Proning

https://twitter.com/BBroderickMD/status/1244489247987564554?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 03, 2020, 14:43
In today's installment of "Our virus is worse than your virus..."

Connecticut is now ranked as third per capita in COVID-19 deaths, behind only New York and New Jersey.

Despite its small size, Connecticut, with 2,436 coronavirus-linked deaths so far— has had more total fatalities than states such as California, Texas, Florida and Washington—as well as the nations of Mexico, Portugal, Turkey and Switzerland among others.

Our proximity to New York is being cited as likely the main reason for this, along with (apparently) the fact that Connecticut is the nations fourth-most densely populated state.

(All of which seems really odd to me since so much of the state is far from being "densely populated" at all. You only have to drive 15 to 20 minutes in any direction to find yourself amongst farms and fields, or wealthy towns with huge plots of lands separating opulent homes. The stats just seem very deceptive to me. The same goes for Connecticut's reputation as a destination for the obscenely wealthy, when so much of it couldn't be further from that. Numbers never tell the whole story.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 03, 2020, 16:30


(All of which seems really odd to me since so much of the state is far from being "densely populated" at all. You only have to drive 15 to 20 minutes in any direction to find yourself amongst farms and fields, or wealthy towns with huge plots of lands separating opulent homes. The stats just seem very deceptive to me. The same goes for Connecticut's reputation as a destination for the obscenely wealthy, when so much of it couldn't be further from that. Numbers never tell the whole story.)

Many years ago now, I spent a few weeks in Ridgefield, so I know exactly what you mean by huge plots of lands separating opulent homes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 03, 2020, 18:53
Many years ago now, I spent a few weeks in Ridgefield, so I know exactly what you mean by huge plots of lands separating opulent homes.
Ah yes, Ridgefield. Most definitely part of the privileged class. The southern part of the state is known for its "New York money," as that's where many in the investment world tend to gravitate towards, with towns like Greenwich, Westport and New Caanan being perhaps the most conspicuous of them all. There is a tremendous amount of wealth within the state, no doubt about it. But the inner-city and rural areas are like any other, with working-class people struggling to make ends meet.

It does make me wonder about the supposed "one percenters" that we often hear about when the topic of inequality and wealth disparity comes up (which is pretty much daily). For such a seeming minority, there do seem to be quite a few of them. I've been to quite a few different states over the years, and I've yet to see one where excessive wealth didn't coexist within shouting distance of those on the other end of the income spectrum. It would seem to me that at least 25% to 30% of the population is much better off than the rest. All those high-end car commercials that seem to dominate the airwaves on any given day only confirm this for me.

There may be hundreds of millions of Americans who worry about the week-to-week bills, but there are clearly tens of millions who have no such concerns.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 04, 2020, 15:32
Got called off the bench today. 2 CoVid-19 patients needed bracing help and had to go for another in the ICU  which was a different world than normal.

All patients breath with this strange bubbling noise and that smell I mentioned early is worse in the ICU. More stressed environment, but got the feeling it comes from being tired and run down.

Anyway home to shower and run tomorrow, see what Wednesday brings. Hopefully sent back down to the minors. :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 05, 2020, 15:52
https://twitter.com/AnandWrites/status/1257655092704141314?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 05, 2020, 17:29
From the above...

Quote
Italy was one of the first countries to see the new virus in the last week of February, almost at the same time that the original strain appeared. Washington was among the first states to get hit with the original strain in late February, but by March 15 the mutated strain dominated. New York was hit by the original virus around March 15, but within days the mutant strain took over. The team did not report results for California.

Great. So now we have the equivalent of the gangsta rap wars but in virus form: East coast vs West coast.

It might help to explain why NYC was so ravaged by this, but life is going to need to find a way to move forward either way. People are losing both faith and patience with local and national governments. Endless lockdowns are simply not going to be tolerated indefinitely. Even if a more virulent version is found to be among us, the world is not going to standstill for the next 12 months. If they try to impose any such thing, the fallout of societal collapse will far eclipse anything that a contagious virus might bring.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 05, 2020, 17:48
Yep, our epidemiology folks have added living with this virus for a long time in their interviews and if we have 14 different mutation with different "strengths" then the game has to change
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 05, 2020, 18:34
https://youtu.be/ypwoyVl5Dxk
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 06, 2020, 13:53
Ok

Swedish experiments update

28th April

Of those with a positive test 38% are over 70

Death those over 70 make up 90% of deaths Edit this stat has been taken from the media site I got it from. And replaced with 924 of the total deaths at 28 April so over 50%

50% of deaths come from older person homes, 26% have personal that come home to help them give them food etc.

So the issue is personal moving from house to house or older people homes to older person homes and spreading the virus
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 06, 2020, 14:37
For today's installment of I'm really getting sick of all this...

I've reverted to reading the newspaper as of late because television has become unbearable in its hyperventilating over coronavirus, not to mention the overall manner and tone with which all related stories are reported. That, and the continued idiocy of having to watch reporters speak into a camera lens while wearing a mask.

However, the newspaper is proving to be just as infuriating, if not more so.
Today's headlines from the Hartford Courant:

State schools shut down until fall
Yeah, no kidding. Was there seriously any consideration that they would reopen for just a few meaningless weeks in June after all this? That was the lead story, as if it should come as a surprise to anyone with half a brain.

Next up (and borrowed from the New York Times)...
A dark reality ahead for US
That headline itself was almost enough to make me skip the entire article, but the subtitle was even better:
For every bit of progress, nation still in unrelenting march of deaths, infections

I don't even care. If I read that a thousand people are dying every hour, I do not care. Maybe this is a culling of the global population that we need to survive the coming decades. I mean, why not adopt that mindset? The game can be played either way if one so chooses. But to suggest that only darkness and despair are on the horizon is simply not a perspective I'm willing to adopt. As a result of the way all of this has been managed from on high, I literally do not care about what's unfolding. Scare me more. Go ahead, I dare you.

Third headline on the front page:
"LIKE WILDFIRE"

That sounds very scary!  :o

Oh, wait. It goes on to say, "Nearly all virus deaths in state last week were nursing home patients."
Huh. Well good thing they closed the gates on the local hiking trails, because god knows how the elderly love to repel off rock cliffs when not attached to their oxygen tanks.

The next two paragraphs perfectly illustrate the uselessness of injecting too much emotion into a story, while providing nothing of actual value.
Quote
"This brings tears to everyone's eyes," said Yale epidemiologist Dr. Albert Ko, who is also co-chairman of Gov. Ned Lamont's advisory board to reopen the state.

Ko said that the nursing home population is like "princess diamonds" that need to be protected. He said the advisory board has talked about the rising nursing home deaths but is not ready to reveal any recommendations it may have."

But good thing my local barista doesn't even recognize me due to the two of us having to wear masks, because I'm certain that somehow, someway, more elderly would die if I were allowed to actually drink my espresso in front of her.

What does the above quote mean, anyway? "Is not ready to reveal any recommendations."
Maybe a large cup of STFU should be on the menu, then?

But it gets better!  :cool
A few pages later we have an opinion piece titled:
Fine those who don't follow social restrictions

Even before diving into this one, I can already hear the rattling pages of Mao's Little Red Book.

Written by someone named Hailey Eichner, she goes on to express deep concern over the non-conformists amongst us, with her solution being financial penalties, of course. She warns that Connecticut is "falling behind" neighboring states like New York and Massachusetts where fines can be anywhere from $1000 to $300 respectively for not properly following "social distancing" guidelines, or not wearing masks in public.

She goes on to suggest that, "Effectively enforcing such orders might include police officers patrolling popular areas like main streets, parks and parking lots in their towns."

Now think about that for a moment. Parks? Parking lots? These are the hotspots for the spread of coronavirus? This is where police should be expending their resources? This has nothing to do with containing a virus, and everything to do with wanting to control others for the gratification of one's own ego.

But if that weren't enough, she even outdoes herself in the very next paragraph:
"It also may require some help from our neighbors to make sure that everyone stays safe—for example, by making hotlines available for residents to call if they see violations, the same way one would call the police if they see a car dangerously speeding down a main street."

This is so flawed on so many levels that I barely know where to begin.
For one thing, we already have a "hotline" for police emergencies. It's called "911" and it's used across the country to notify police in case of emergency. But is dear Hailey suggesting that somehow more resources should be both diverted and devoted to a separate "hotline" system to satisfy her inner-Kim Jong-un?

The final paragraph perfectly encapsulates the school-marmish mindset in play here:
"By enforcing fines for those who do not wear masks in public and do not follow social distancing, those people will have to accept the fact that the state of Connecticut does indeed have their best interest in mind and wants to keep them safe and healthy, whether they like it or not."

Because of course the state always knows what's best for you!  :cool

But the best is yet to come. A tag line at the end of the article informs me that for this particular column, titled FRESH TALK: "The Courant invites writers younger than 30 to write essays of about 650 words containing strong views."

Yes, because twenty-something-year-olds should definitely be the policy-makers of our time. Hell, let's just make Greta President of the World, and be done with it.

Oh, but what of our darling little author, Hailey Eichner?
Well, well, well. As it turns out, she hails from the aforementioned elite enclave of Ridgefield, CT.  And she's a 20-year-old sophomore studying...psychology. How perfect. A rich, young, white girl, from a privileged upper-class community, who I can pretty much guarantee has never wanted for anything in life, and who has certainly never had to pay any of her own bills, is quick on the trigger when imposing monetary fines on others should they not conform to the guideline of her specified behavior.

This is everything I hate about the response to coronavirus. And allow me this opportunity to point out something that is very likely not evident to non-Americans.

Trump, for all his simple-minded idiocy, is the necessary antidote to the Hailey Eichner's of the world who desperately want to impose their own set of standards on the rest of us. Much like the now-famous images of Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, showing off her $10,000 freezer stocked to the brim with every flavor of boutique ice cream imaginable, in order to demonstrate how she's grappling with the constraints of home quarantine, the elite want nothing more than to dictate behavior to the rest of us while offering nothing in terms of practical solutions to ease the burdens of this pandemic which they themselves are immune to due to their own wealth and elite status.

In other words: Don't be surprised when Trump wins reelection, and don't be surprised if eventually the mob turns and literally burns some of these people to the ground. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 06, 2020, 17:19
https://twitter.com/Breathe_to_win/status/1257632653362200577?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 06, 2020, 19:33
https://twitter.com/GermHunterMD/status/1258051354540380160?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 08, 2020, 03:19
Not to be Captain Conspiracy, or to don my tinfoil hat, but...

I am sensing a TREMENDOUS amount BS surrounding coronavirus data, and much of it has to do with my own first-hand experiences. I'll see how the next few weeks unfold, and share more specific info as the picture becomes clearer to me.

My real world experiences are not lining up in any way, shape or form with the official narrative. Something is simply not right here. Not even close. More details to follow...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on May 08, 2020, 05:19
update from West Australia

we have been incredibly fortunate ... the vast majority of our cases have been from people returning from travel ... where they have been forced into quarantine anyway so havent infected anyone else.

We have had very few deaths, and no new cases for over a week now.

Most schools are back, many shops are reopening and restaurants and cafes will likely be able to open very soon, and elective surgeries have recommenced a couple of weeks ago.

We are allowed 10 people in our homes - so allowed visitors and small groups which is soooo nice.  Had a family get together the other day, and am heading to my Mums for the weekend (mothers day here) with sisters and family.

I am hoping that sports and community activities will start to get back within the next couple of weeks (with small groups).  Large groups, and interstate/international travel is still a fair way off though.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 08, 2020, 07:45
Another update from Australia.

(https://us.v-cdn.net/6030865/uploads/editor/6d/xo6pg6ukqry3.jpg)


 :shh :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 09, 2020, 22:53
Plasma that was mentioned in the thread having good results.

Just read about study from Hong Kong using a combination of Hiv, hepatitis and MS drugs being the 1st drugs working against the virus.

How the hell they get those drugs in combo is my question. Amazing what smart people can do
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 10, 2020, 16:18
2nd Wave being used in some media in South Korea and Germany.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on May 10, 2020, 19:24
numbers are up again a bit over here indeed, but (by the look of it) mainly due to big numbers of infections in several slaughterhouses around the country so far. Working conditions are far from ideal in those, and many of the employees are migrant workers, lodged together in small flats or containers.

Many restrictions are lifted on from tomorrow though, and people begin to be way more relaxed, so epidemiologist are also warning of a 2nd wave to come of course. But the way I understand it, most of them are talking about it to potentially happen in fall, not right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on May 11, 2020, 22:22
Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have decided to stay home,

Sounds just like a World Cup.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 12, 2020, 11:24
UK for a 5 week period almost 50 000 excess deaths.

That is a lot more people dead than normal
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 12, 2020, 11:31
UK for a 5 week period almost 50 000 excess deaths.

That is a lot more people dead than normal

Pretty much.

ONS weekly death figures total excess for 28 March to 1st May - 45,000 people for England and Wales.
Scotland, approx 3,500.

However, here in Wales on 5 deaths reported yesterday and 12 the day before.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/BC36/production/_112228184_coviddeathswales11may2020.png)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 12, 2020, 11:46
Sweden figures are dropping 're CoVid-19

Be interesting to see once the weekend figures catch up.

Tried to find the latest R value but could not.

See what figure we get in today's press conference
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 12, 2020, 15:12
Found Denmark they have now dropped to .7 from .9 after restrictions eased. They told Reuters that they are expected to have a 2nd wave at some stage
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 12, 2020, 15:43
Last I could find was .85 for end of April. 360 patients in intensive care which is lowest it has been. Was over 500 a week ago.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 12, 2020, 16:46
I've been meaning to update the past few days but life is imposing time limits on me.

Local headlines:

As of Friday, May 8, 2020
60% of coronavirus deaths in Connecticut were from long-term care facilities. Last week saw another 378 nursing home deaths. As testing of nursing home patients in CT has expanded, the number of COVID-19 patients jumped to over 6,000.

The previously mentioned Kimberly Hall North can no longer claim to have the most COVID-19 deaths as they were recently surpassed by another facility that can now count 47 as their total. Another facility, Lichfield Woods, appears to be the most virus-saturated with 156 residences who have either tested positive or died from the virus. This, from a place that only has 160 beds total. It makes one wonder: Where they serving coronavirus soup? WTF?

In today's news:
The state is planning to test every one of the more than 22,000 nursing home patients by the end of May in order to evaluate the level of infiltration that the virus has had. What seems odd to me, if not entirely illogical, is that that the plan for testing all staff members as well does not, as of yet, have a definitive time line.

As it stands now, May 20th is the target date for the state to begin reopening various businesses, with obvious limitations in place such the wearing of masks by food servers, total number of occupants reduced, etc. I've really no idea what the response will be though. People are fed up with being shut in, but will they rush out to mingle, even in smaller gatherings, as soon their given the go ahead? Personally, I don't want to be served by someone wearing a mask, or being forced to sit a certain number of feet away from other customers, so I will likely wait until things return to a more "normal" normal, although I've no idea when that might be.

Meanwhile, the outdoor idiocy continues with people wearing face masks while out walking or hiking, even when there isn't another human within a few hundred meters. Do they not understand the concept? The trees are not emitting the virus, and the reason for the masks in the first place is so that they themselves don't spread the virus. If they are that paranoid about being outside, my suggestion would be to stay at home, lock the doors, and shutter the windows. They're missing out on the benefit of being outside and breathing fresh air, and making fools of themselves in the process. One woman that I witnessed was gesticulating wildly at approaching hikers as if she were landing a jet on the deck of an aircraft carrier. Apparently she was greatly concerned that they might pass within shouting distance as their paths crossed. Again, if you're that concerned about dropping dead before reaching your car, perhaps a state park is not the place for you. People have lost all perspective, if not their minds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 12, 2020, 16:55
Me too.
Not sure I believe the official UK numbers being put out any any more.

I have just been told of a 90 YO man who was admitted to hospital for pneumonia, was tested twice for Corona, but was negative both times, then died.

Cause of death put on the certificate by the coroner? You guess it Coronavirus.
Doctor relative who had made the initial diagnosis questioned the coroner how could that possibly be?
Told her that he had no choice.

Also, two separate hospitals (one in Wales the other one of the biggest in England) that are almost devoid of patients outside the Covid wards.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on May 12, 2020, 17:08
Meanwhile, the outdoor idiocy continues with people wearing face masks while out walking or hiking, even when there isn't another human within a few hundred meters. Do they not understand the concept? The trees are not emitting the virus, and the reason for the masks in the first place is so that they themselves don't spread the virus. If they are that paranoid about being outside, my suggestion would be to stay at home, lock the doors, and shutter the windows. They're missing out on the benefit of being outside and breathing fresh air, and making fools of themselves in the process. One woman that I witnessed was gesticulating wildly at approaching hikers as if she were landing a jet on the deck of an aircraft carrier. Apparently she was greatly concerned that they might pass within shouting distance as their paths crossed. Again, if you're that concerned about dropping dead before reaching your car, perhaps a state park is not the place for you. People have lost all perspective, if not their minds.

I can only speak for Germany, but it seems to be a bit of a general problem that many people (understandably) are very insecure about it, how to handle the situation and so on, and it's long overdue that they get a proper update on potential risks. At the beginning, it was all about washing hands, disinfecting stuff, staying at home and so on - which was pretty easy to follow - but from my understanding, many of those guidelined are outdated meanwhile.

There have been studies which say that only between .1 and 1% of the infections happen outdoor and smear infections seem to be almost no factor as well, instead transmition via aerosols in stuffed, poorly ventilated rooms are much more likely.

But instead of acting accordigly, we get rules for shops to disinfect all kind of stuff regularly, and at the restaurants there are 2m gaps between the tables even outside - it's no wonder people are confused, and also angry and resistent, in parts. We are about to come to a point, were some don't care at all anymore, while others are overcautious.

I think if not necessary restrictions were eased instead and more useful ones put in place (and properly explained), it would be possible to get a way better result in total.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 12, 2020, 17:55
There have been studies which say that only between .1 and 1% of the infections happen outdoor and smear infections seem to be almost no factor as well, instead transmission via aerosols in stuffed, poorly ventilated rooms are much more likely.

This is what I'm most curious about, although I do wonder just how they can trace the methods by which the virus spreads, or how the source of one's infection can be accurately tracked down for any given individual.

I've let it be known that one of my pet peeves is newscaster wearing their silly masks when outside and talking to a camera. This was taken to new heights (literally) of absurdity on last night's news cast when a female reporter was shown with her obligatory face mask in place, but as the camera panned out and up, it became obvious that the footage was being provided from a drone. I supposed the production crew was proud of themselves for the effect, but as the camera climbed in the air, it became even more apparent that this women was nowhere near any other individuals whatsoever.

As the drone hovered from above, the fact that she was wearing a mask at all was revealed for what it truly was: An absurd stunt done purely for effect and to reinforce the fear mongering. There was not a reason in the world for her to be wearing one under such circumstances.

The very brief segment appears @5:55 below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRjaVkW_dhg
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on May 12, 2020, 18:37
This is what I'm most curious about, although I do wonder just how they can trace the methods by which the virus spreads, or how the source of one's infection can be accurately tracked down for any given individual.

in this case it was study from China, but also over here, health offices are able to track down around ~50% of the infections - so if they know the person it came from, it should also be possible to paint a fairly clear picture about where it happened, I guess.

In German media, the increasing number of demonstrations agains the retrictions have taken over quite a big part of the coverage. Somehow those events seem to attract all kind of extremists, no matter if left, right, hooligans or conspiracists - what exactly has brought them all together to rally against Bill Gates' alleged plans of a forced vaccination to imlement chips and take over world domination, I haven't quite understood yet, though. Is that a talking point elsewhere as well?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 12, 2020, 21:54
Is that a talking point elsewhere as well?

Yeah, it is. I see it popping up here and there, and that's without even being a part of those particular online communities. It usually refers back to EVENT 201 (https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/) which is something I believe I posted about earlier in this thread.

It's a real thing, and it's not like there's anything secret about it, but I do understand how the timing of it could be construed to be somewhat conspiratorial. It's and odd coincidence, I will admit.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 12, 2020, 22:12
The latest numbers just in...

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/wfsb.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/f2/2f237752-f3fa-5225-aeda-0644e99ea3b3/5ebacbfde50bc.image.jpg?resize=540%2C304)

As of Tuesday afternoon, however, the total number of coronavirus cases in the state rose to 34,333.

On the surface of it all, and considering the relatively small size of Connecticut, those numbers would seem to represent a serious problem. Until you realize that what we're really talking about here (unless I've completely failed in my math) is less than 1 percent of the state's population being affected by this, and majority of those, as has already been established, being nursing home patients.

So if that's the case, THEN WHEN HAVE WE SHUT DOWN THE ENTIRE STATE?!?!?
 :angry  :S  :angry  :S
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 13, 2020, 07:57
(https://us.v-cdn.net/6030865/uploads/editor/si/wmz820ng4rlf.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 13, 2020, 13:49
I'm not a doctor. I don't even play one on TV.
But this is guy apparently is, so I guess we're all going to die. Tomorrow.  :shh

He's got dozens of videos on the topic, but this is the first I've come across his work.

"[COVID-19] can mimic just about any illness."  :S

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzKvIYwqQkE

There's some compelling info here, but I really don't know what to make of it all.
(It gets more technical as the video progresses, but the opening few minutes are worth watching.)


@1:21
"This disease can present in so many ways. There's never been a disease, in the history of mankind, that's presented in so many different ways."

Is that true? :slow
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 13, 2020, 15:56
Kiwi all figures look about right.

Think models are saying we should be 30% by end of the month
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 13, 2020, 16:24
 Anyhow, I expect some of you have seen this gem, since it's rapidly doing the rounds. :D


https://twitter.com/savag3ap3/status/1260255585565585411
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 14, 2020, 10:02
Many countries are opening up restrictions and now being more open  than Sweden 😉

That was always going to be the deal apparently, the restrictions we have will stay in place longer. Ie no overseas trips until at least 15 July. We now can go to a house 1-2 hours car drive away, but still keep away from people and no meeting the older people.

Reading between the lines we if sick are expected to get back to our normal place of residents so the smaller hospital system don't get over run.

Will be interesting now to see if Sweden continues on the downward trend and other countries spike a little as expected.

WHO stated as we all expected that CoVid-19 is not going away anytime soon.

So now we need to find the new normal, for that to happen testing needs to be improved IMHO. So you can test yourself and isolate when you get it.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 14, 2020, 13:14
https://www.ft.com/content/f7d08906-b5c5-4210-b2c6-0ec95d533bc6

Headline says only 5% of population of Spain  have had CoVid-19

Of course some areas much higher others less.

Seems like lots this article can back up what ever bias you have
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 14, 2020, 14:31
 This is absolutely  :lol

https://youtu.be/IeT6Aeof4Ok?t=26
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 14, 2020, 17:38
Was just looking on one of those projections sites linked from worldometer Sweden predictions of death rate have halved from over 10 000 to just over 5000 by early August.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 15, 2020, 00:56
Grocery shopping is still hit or miss here. The main store I go to is generally not very crowded, but the stock levels of shelves is still very inconsistent. Some weeks there's fish, other weeks none. Some weeks a modest selection of meat, others it's very sparse. Frozen goods are still limited to two items per person, and the selection is somewhat wanting. Paper goods are slowly re-appearing, but with limits of two items per customer as well. Eggs and dairy were limited to two for several weeks, but this week the limit was down to just one per customer. Produce has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels, but other items such as rice and pastas have yet to see fully, or even partially, stocked shelves.

At the outset of all this, I did not expect such limitations to last this long. With everyone now being required to wear masks, shopping for food has become an entirely joyless endeavor. I drove by the local Whole Foods (speciality foods, organic offerings, hard to find items, artisanal products, etc —for those unfamiliar with the national chain), and it was just as I had heard: Long lines outside the store with everyone carefully spaced the required 6 ft /2 meters between them; shoppers only allowed in at light intervals to prevent crowding inside; everyone wearing masks and gloves.

Whole Foods is the only store where I've seen such strict policies implemented, but they would otherwise tend to be one of the busiest, so most likely to have the most densely packed aisles. This particular store is in the center of a very affluent town (they all are, actually, somewhat by design), and rich people love their organic kale and overpriced papaya smoothies, so such measures are probably necessary to tame the enthusiasm. The fact that people were lined up in the rain for the privilege of waiting at least 30 minutes to gain entry was amusing to me. I can only imagine the gleeful conformity that must be on display once rarefied access is granted. I'm guessing there's a lot of designer hemp face masks on display as well.

Who shops regularly at a Whole Foods?

People like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgfumenJbXE
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on May 15, 2020, 05:57
(https://preview.redd.it/uwl64mis3ac21.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=f80b042ea3355dc2451d1b7057f8b6fb88c5dcf9)

hope you enjoyed your egg this week, Drummer :D
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on May 15, 2020, 09:54
Grocery shopping is still hit or miss here.
Interesting.
There were shortages here in Germany back in March/early April, but only of dry pasta, toilet paper, and (for some reason) yeast.
By early/mid April, pasta was back to normal stocks, and toilet paper, while still not filling the shelves, is available again. Even yeast has returned to the shelves.
For any other products, I never noticed any particular difference from 'normal' stocks.

Also, I have yet to experience having to wait outside a shop for any length of time before being allowed to enter. I've stood outside e.g. the butcher's for a minute (restricted to three customers in the shop at a time), but never faced any restrictions at supermarkets.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 15, 2020, 11:29
Interesting.
There were shortages here in Germany back in March/early April, but only of dry pasta, toilet paper, and (for some reason) yeast.
By early/mid April, pasta was back to normal stocks, and toilet paper, while still not filling the shelves, is available again. Even yeast has returned to the shelves.
For any other products, I never noticed any particular difference from 'normal' stocks.

Also, I have yet to experience having to wait outside a shop for any length of time before being allowed to enter. I've stood outside e.g. the butcher's for a minute (restricted to three customers in the shop at a time), but never faced any restrictions at supermarkets.

 We have apparently turned into a nation of bakers.
Lukas mentions yeast, our "like gold dust" ingredient remains self-raising flour.
Otherwise, exactly the same here, with the once absent dried pasta, toilet paper and cleaning products pretty much readily available again.

 However, we do have issue over queuing to get into supermarkets. Some are fairly minor, but others can snake around car parks, with folks waiting for anything up to a couple of hours: weekends being particularly congested.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Servais Knavendish on May 15, 2020, 12:05
We have apparently turned into a nation of bakers.
Lukas mentions yeast, our "like gold dust" ingredient remains self-raising flour.



Absolutely spot on - have resorted to buying flour in plain brown paper baggies from suppliers that I had no idea existed...  birthday cake armageddon averted!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 15, 2020, 15:11
Patient requiring ICU is dropping like a stone. No idea if they have died or not, but patients are not lining up to get in. So seems the Swedish experiment is going ok again
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 15, 2020, 15:45
There were shortages here in Germany...

Speaking of... :D

A German cafe, Cafe & Konditorei Rothe, asked customers to wear hats with pool noodles taped to them to ensure they stick to social distancing measures - but it has divided opinions (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/cafe-customers-must-wear-pool-22031038)

(https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article22031037.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/0_Cafe-pastry-shop-Rotheuse-swimming-floats-to-keep-customers-socially-distanced.jpg)

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 16, 2020, 09:02
The R value for Sweden got a mention in a press conference . Nothing exact but still below 1
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on May 16, 2020, 12:17
here in West Aus we have had 2 cases in the last 2 weeks or more ... so definitely under control.

The vast majority of our cases were imported anyway - travel, cruise ships etc ... so no real community spread anyway.

Our lockdown was pretty light on.  Only 2 people could visit your house, about 50% of the retail shops closed, restaurants and bars closed, but could still do takeaway etc.

Restaurants opening tomorrow - max 20 people ... but that will ease significantly within the next 2-3 weeks I would think.  Other community facilities and gyms etc also opening tomorrow.  Most shops have reopened in the last week or two as well.  And all kids back at school.

Slowly going back to normal - but there are still some regional travel restrictions - and hte interstate and international borders will be closed for some time to come.

On the home front - had a birthday party for my daughter today ... Having 15 people in my house was a shock to the system after having no one for so long.  But nice.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 16, 2020, 13:07
here in West Aus we have had 2 cases in the last 2 weeks or more ... so definitely under control.

The vast majority of our cases were imported anyway - travel, cruise ships etc ... so no real community spread anyway.

Our lockdown was pretty light on.  Only 2 people could visit your house, about 50% of the retail shops closed, restaurants and bars closed, but could still do takeaway etc.

Restaurants opening tomorrow - max 20 people ... but that will ease significantly within the next 2-3 weeks I would think.  Other community facilities and gyms etc also opening tomorrow.  Most shops have reopened in the last week or two as well.  And all kids back at school.

Slowly going back to normal - but there are still some regional travel restrictions - and hte interstate and international borders will be closed for some time to come.

On the home front - had a birthday party for my daughter today ... Having 15 people in my house was a shock to the system after having no one for so long.  But nice.

Happy Birthday Miss AG
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 16, 2020, 17:52
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1261594674999017472?

Remember kids Swedes are different.....
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 16, 2020, 19:24
Interesting https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1261110000543506433?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 17, 2020, 14:36
https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1261997415495806978?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 17, 2020, 15:45
Mellow not sure if this helps

https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1261994805271429120?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 19, 2020, 14:03
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1262723848866316288?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 19, 2020, 17:24
No 2nd infections

https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1262744880591171585?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 20, 2020, 05:53
Well this all just got very personal for me. I'll share my own story as it unfolds, as best I can, in the interest of all that we've been sharing thus far on the topic.

My father just tested positive for COVID-19. This, on Tuesday, May 19th.

For several reasons, I'll be very surprised if he survives the rest of the week.

Here's the backstory:
Both my parents are quite old. My Mom will be 90 in a few months, and my Dad is set to turn 91 in a few days. I'm in my mid-50s already (which, on its own, is bizarre enough for me to contemplate), and the past few years of my life have been dominated by trying to care for the two of them as I am only one of two children, and my sister is nearly 2000 km away with her own burdens and responsibilities.

For the most part, they have been remarkably healthy for their age, with the downside of that being that they have outlived nearly all their friends and relatives. As an example, my father was not only skiing, but was a ski instructor as recently as six years ago. While my mom has required much more care than he over the years, his condition took a rapid downturn a few months ago.

An occasional balance problem that led to occasional falls, progressed over time to more frequent occurrences of both. But he would always bounce back from whatever injuries or setbacks he encountered. He even survived heart surgery at the age of 86, the goal of which was to repair a faulty valve that he's had for decades  But he's had congestive heart failure for some time, and that has invited its own set of problems over the years. But more recently the balance issues led to a weakness and instability in his legs that left him unable to move about by himself, and other somewhat undetermined conditions were causing steady weight loss that equated to about a pound a day for nearly 25 days straight.

He's been admitted into the hospital twice in the past two months, the first for fluid build-up in his legs and lungs (which caused breathing problems), and the second for continued back pain after yet another fall, and the concerning, ongoing weight loss. On top of all that, there was an obvious mental decline that seem to accelerate noticeably in just the past few weeks.

After his more recent hospital stay that only lasted a couple of days, they were ready to send him home. But he was in a state of requiring full-on nursing care, and that just wasn't an option at home. Because of the current state of our health care system, he wouldn't qualify for the necessary coverage, and he certainly couldn't afford to pay out-of-pocket for private care. But insurance would cover, for a short time (a few weeks to possibly a few months, at the most) the cost of nursing home/rehab care. So that was our only option. He was no longer able to function on his own, and he needed daily medical monitoring. Our plan was to transition that into him being a full time resident at a nursing home, as it had become evident that that was the only way possible to take care of him.

Enter coronavirus, and of course the entire scenario becomes exponentially more complicated. As I've been reporting in this thread, nursing homes have been ravaged by COVID-19, and as a result, it's very difficult right now to get admitted anywhere. Many homes are outright refusing new patients. The obvious reason being they don't want any new patients potentially bringing new cases of the virus into their facilities, the other being that so many places are currently short-staffed due to virus-related illness.

But we literally had zero options in front of us. The hospital wouldn't keep him, and even if they did, there are obvious risks in that environment. Even with home care, now you introduce all sorts of other risks with various people coming in and out of the home on a daily basis. Nursing homes are now fully aware of COVID-19 risks, and so those that are accepting patients are doing all that they can to limit the spread (or at least that's what we're being told).

So in order to be transferred from hospital to nursing home, my dad had to be tested for COVID-19. That was back on April 27, and it took approximately 36 hours for a negative result to come back. He was then cleared for admittance to the nursing home, where he would then be isolated for a period of 14 days to ensure that he remained asymptomatic. So far, so good.

While there, he was still allowed controlled visits from my mom where normally patients could peer out a large bay window to friends and family, but in my parents case they allowed them to see each other through an open door on the side of one of the hallways. Everyone was masked and gloved, and the staff had all the expected layers of protection. All this time my father was still in a very weakened state, sleeping most of the time, still had pain in his back, still contending with ongoing kidney issues, and still struggling with a slowly degenerating heart condition that had been in decline for many years. Mentally he had good and bad days, and some days his speech was so garbled it was hard to make sense of what he was trying to say. On other days he was perfectly aware of his surroundings and able to communicate reasonably well.

Yesterday, though, some sudden changes occurred. In the morning, I had actually gone to the nursing home for him to sign some financial papers, which he was able to do with only minor assistance from the nurse. He was alert, and his overall condition was considered to be anywhere from fair to slightly better than usual. But a few hours later I received a call that his blood oxygen levels were getting dangerously low, and his breathing was becoming more labored. He had been on a recent dose of antibiotics for traces of some type of pneumonia, and had also gone from needing oxygen at night only, to requiring oxygen during the day as well. But that was all in just the past few days.

So the decision was made yesterday afternoon to send him back to the hospital. Of course he would be tested again for COVID-19 upon arrival, and we were waiting for the results of that test as a few hours ago. I spoke with one of the doctors earlier in the day, and she was concerned that he may have COVID based on the chest scans she had seen (not sure if they were x-rays or some other method). But then this evening his nurse called to tell us that the test had turned out to be negative. But false negatives are not uncommon, so she was expecting that by morning they would probably test him again for more accuracy.

Then less than an hour later, the nurse called me back to reveal that the negative test results she had been looking at were, in fact, from his previous stay at the hospital, and those test results were dated April 29. As it turned out, just ten minutes prior to her calling me,  she had been alerted to the status of his actual test from yesterday, the results of which now confirmed that he is positive for COVID-19.

All things considered, I feel that is now highly unlikely that he will make it to his 91st birthday. The doctors will decide the next course of action, but he's being moved to another wing of the hospital where other COVID-19-positive patients are being treated. We all know how rapidly the virus can overtake the elderly, especially those with "underlying conditions," a litany of which he already possesses.

So that's where I'm at as the clock here moves just past midnight. Will he survive the night? I do not know. Will he survive the week? I'd say that's highly unlikely. If I come across as matter-of-fact regarding any of this, it's primarily because I've had more than enough time to contemplate almost any scenario, and for the past few months my father has been merely existing rather than living. The pain and difficulty will really be upon my mother who is feeling helpless in the midst of all this isolation, and as someone who was a nurse herself in her younger years, not being able to visit my father in the hospital and be by his side is exceptionally difficult for her.
This, after more than 60 years of marriage to one another.

Of course the other question on the table is:
Did he contract coronavirus from the nursing home?
If so, when and how?
I'll have more to say about all of that in the coming days, as I already had a narrative developing based on some of my personal experiences.

And should my father pass away in the near to immediate future, his will certainly be listed as yet another COVID-19 casualty, a statistic that doesn't even begin to tell half the story.

That's all I have for now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 20, 2020, 07:38
 Seems like our circumstances have been pretty similar, so I can empathise with what you are going through, right now.
 Although decline took several years, it was also a virus in my case and was still a shock at the time.
 Take care and best wishes.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on May 20, 2020, 13:32
And should my father pass away in the near to immediate future, his will certainly be listed as yet another COVID-19 casualty, a statistic that doesn't even begin to tell half the story.

That's all I have for now.
My deepest sympathies. :hug

You touch upon a very important thing at the end: Every human life has a story to be told. And focusing only on the numbers ('only so-and-so many new cases this week, so we can open up again' and the like) means that those stories, each and every one of them important and valuable, can and do lose focus.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on May 20, 2020, 15:23
Many hugs   :hug

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 21, 2020, 07:59
Been laughing/crying about what our work loads will be after the stop on non acute medical procedures start.

Stockholm area 44 000 operations and the diabetic wound centre at the hospital has over 700 on their waiting list apparently. (Ran into to someone I know that works there)

Denmark is opening up restrictions faster now as the R value keeps dropping.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 22, 2020, 14:41
Some interesting developments on both the local front and personal side of things. I'm bit pressed for time right now but I'll try to share an abbreviated version of the personal.

Re: my Dad
For a guy that has, throughout his life, generally defied the norms of health and medicine by having little concern for convention, and mostly doing things his own way with little regard for habits or methods that others might avoid (I'll expand that in a subsequent post), and for someone who has always been extremely stubborn and mostly set in his own ways—the rest of the world, and anyone around him, be damned—is proving to be just as confounding by not adhering to his demise as recently projected.

I got a call from two doctors last night, one of which is a specialist in infectious diseases. As it turns out, my fathers oxygen levels have been returning to normal, and he generally responding well without having been given any specific anti-coronavirus treatment. Part of that reason being that some the medications simply weren't available to the hospital. Well that has now changed.

They have started my father on a 5-day infusion of Remdesivir, which Wiki describes as, "a broad-spectrum antiviral medication developed by the biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences. As of 2020, remdesivir is being tested as a specific treatment for COVID-19, and has been authorized for emergency use in the U.S. and approved for use in Japan for people with severe symptoms." I would imagine that most of you are familiar with it or have heard it mentioned in the news.

In addition that, they asked for, and were granted by me, permission to enroll him in a Mayo Clinic trial of Convalescent plasma therapy, which involves an infusion from the blood plasma of someone who has successfully recovered from COVID-19, and whose blood contains antibodies capable of fighting off the virus.

Now, both of these developments are surprising to me on a number of levels.
1) I barely expected him to even make it to today, and not sure the doctors did either, as of just a few days ago.
2) A 5-day treatment plan would, at the very minimum, suggest that they anticipate him being alive at least six more days from now.
3) He is very old, and already in a very weakened and declining state, with a heart that has been slowly fading for several years now.

But this is the guy they want to try experimental treatments on? :slow

Okay. For one thing, I know my Dad would embrace this stuff. He loves science (he was an aeronautical engineer himself), generally has a very high regard for doctors and their opinions, and has never shied away from the notion of seeking medication to solve a problem.

But another thing to understand about my father is that he is endlessly confounding, and easily the most frustrating person I've ever encountered in my life. Nothing is ever easy. EVER. If there's a way to complicate something—anything—he will find a way. So it came as little surprise when the specialist soon called back to inform me that my father's blood type is AB-, which, as it turns out, is the rarest of them all. Apparently only less than 1% of the entire population has AB- blood.

What this really means is that they don't have the necessary match in plasma on hand, so there will be a delay of a few days before they can acquire it. What I find fascinating about all of this is that I have to wonder if having a rare blood type is somehow tied to the many ways in which he has thwarted disease and outlived nearly all of his friends, while simultaneously ignoring convention and common sense that guide most people's daily habits.

As I said, I'll try to elaborate further on this in a follow-up, but part of me was actually hoping that having more expert attention focused on my dad would help reveal some aspect of his overall being that might explain his longevity and physical refusal to conform or submit to so many of the ills and pitfalls that have consumed so many others, most of them being much younger than he. I was just not expecting something as, perhaps, clear cut as an exceptionally rare blood type. It does make me wonder.

So for now, he's doing surprisingly well, although he most definitely requires high volumes of supplemental oxygen. But he has been alert and aware during video calls, and continues to amaze all those who have encountered him. Perhaps he presents as somewhat of a medical mystery to the experts. If nothing else, what they learn from him will most certainly contribute to the greater body of knowledge that's being pieced together surrounding the coronavirus. And I'm confident that he would be pleased by that. 

I'm not unrealistic about any of this, as I'm fully aware that at any moment he could take a turn for the worse and quickly meet his demise. But he's not in any pain or great discomfort at the moment, so further treatment seems like a logical course of action.

I'll keep you posted as this develops.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 22, 2020, 16:39
Sounds like goodish news DB. Been thinking about your Dad and hoping it goes well
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 23, 2020, 01:56
And just like that...

My father passed away two hours ago. On his 91st birthday.

It was all incredibly sudden when it came right down to it. The decline was rapid.

I had dropped off cards and balloons around noon, which the nurses retrieved from me in the lobby, as no visitors are allowed. About an hour later my mother and I had a Facetime call with him, which the hospital staff has been facilitating with iPads. He had two oxygen devices attached to his face, so communication was obviously limited. But he was coherent and aware of things, although obviously massively fatigued. We soon signed off with little fanfare.

Then a few hours later I got a surprise call from one of the doctors telling me that his condition had taken a sudden turn for the worse, and when she went in to see him, he made it perfectly clear to her that he was ready to go. He'd had enough. He was done.

He already established a "Do not resuscitate; Do not intubate" policy. He never wanted to be kept alive artificially. He was of sound enough mind on his own to make that decision, so at that point he was transitioned into more palliative or "comfort" care. They would reduce some of the procedures that were sustaining him, and administer morphine along with one or two other medications to ease any suffering. They gave him maybe 24 hours to live at that point.

My sister then received a direct Facetime call from the hospital, as they knew she had intended to call him shortly after me and my mom had spoken to him. As soon as she took the call, he was immediately saying goodbye to her. He wished her well, and truly left her with his final words. And that was pretty much it. I then called back so my mother could have a final goodbye, but he wasn't really interested in that. I think he was just simply exhausted and could no longer stand living as he was. I suspect that his birthday really drove home the reality of his life: there he was, being kept alive in a hospital bed, away from friends and family, and he knew he would never be going home again.

He did say goodbye, and there as a bit of a virtual touch of hands from one screen to another between my parents, and then he waved the nurse off who was holding the iPad. About an hour or so after that I got the final call from the doctor saying he had just died. It happened that quickly.

My own feelings are mostly those of relief. He'd been declining in a number of ways for some time now, and he was no longer truly living but merely existing. It's not a life he ever would've wanted for himself.

I must also add how incredibly impressed I've been by all the doctors and nurses that we've been in touch through all of this. After the immense burden they've had to endure throughout this pandemic, they showed an extraordinary level of care and compassion towards us at every turn. They were unbelievable helpful, patient, and communicative at every step along the way. They are every bit the heroes that the media has been making them out to be. I just can't say enough about them, and how grateful I am for all of it.

And thus ends a significant chapter of this particular story, and of my own life's unfolding and ever-expanding experiences. At the start of this thread, I never imagined I'd be contributing in such a manner.

Thanks to everyone who has followed along, and to all who have been supportive. I've still got more to add, but from a different perspective moving forward.

It's set to be a beautiful Memorial Day holiday weekend here, and I very much hope to be able to get on my bike in order to clear my head a bit and process all of this.

Best wishes to all.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on May 23, 2020, 07:21
Condolences to you Drummer..
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on May 23, 2020, 07:39
oh DB I am so sorry   :hug
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 23, 2020, 07:40
Thinking of you DB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 23, 2020, 07:57
 It is so often the way with the very old.
Condolences, keep the chin up, DB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on May 23, 2020, 11:21
And just like that...

My father passed away two hours ago. On his 91st birthday.
My condolences, DB.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: blutto on May 23, 2020, 16:23
....condolences to you and yours....

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: t-72 on May 23, 2020, 17:58
My condolences, DrummerBoy!
Through your writing here, your father’s story is now more known to me than any of the reported cases over here. I don’t  know anyone that has had the corona personally nor anyone that has had a case in their family here, and because of that all the countermeasures have been feeling more and more like warfare against a hypothetical enemy, even if this is actually the location with the most cases in the country.
Reading your story it is a reminder that this disease affects real people and real families. Thank you for that!

Rest In Peace, old Drummerman!
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 23, 2020, 20:37
https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1263902642339790848?

https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1264196166381641734?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on May 25, 2020, 20:17
https://twitter.com/i/status/1264974549818445836
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 26, 2020, 09:05
 Here's another one, with some colourful language.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1264997512450113543
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 26, 2020, 11:30
:lol
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 27, 2020, 16:10
Swedish experiments update
Hospital where I work  is closing down CoVid-19 wards faster than you can keep up.

Treated a patient who was in induced coma for 35 days today. Rehabilitation will be a long process for many. Was a very beat down person both physically and mentally
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 28, 2020, 16:45
https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1265659199352168454?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on May 28, 2020, 18:40
Oh I've been away for a few weeks, very busy and just read the story of Drummer Boy's father. Painful to read ! 

However if I may say something positive, one of thing that really amazed me is how your father, till his last day was still in touch with new technologies. I don't know how easily he handled them but my own grandfather who is himself 89 is completely out of touch with that, so I guess, you can be very proud of your parents. My grandpa doesn't even have any mobile phone, so of course, no Facetime, Whatsapp, etc. He's never been on the Internet. I don't even have Facetime myself, in my thirties ! Yet in his "prime" (if I may say so), grandpa was quite avant-guardist. For instance, he had his first telly in 1958 (at the time of the Brussels World Expo). But then since the turn of the century, he's really out of touch with that. So we can only reach him by landline telephone. If ever he had contracted the virus and died from it, none of us could've seen him for a last farewell.

Fortunately, in his own retirement community, some general testing have recently been carried out. None of the residents tested positive. That was a most reassuring news for me. Since the pandemic reached my country, I guess I've never really been so scared for myself but I was most certainly was for my grandfather.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on May 28, 2020, 20:19
Anagram of the decade :

Stay alert : Control the virus : Save lives

Becomes....

Easily survives travel north to castle.


(Yes lockdown has been boring )
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 29, 2020, 09:28
MV

https://twitter.com/AndyBurnhamGM/status/1266122465157230596?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 29, 2020, 10:51
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1266265084143087628?

Interesting
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 29, 2020, 13:05
...one of thing that really amazed me is how your father, till his last day was still in touch with new technologies.

Oh, trust me, he never would've been able to pull that off on his own. Whenever he tried to use a tablet or smartphone, especially with scrolling, I think he felt that he was supposed to be physically moving the pages and images himself. I would often describe his touch on the device as if he were trying to squash bugs. He just didn't seem to grasp the concept.
 :D

The only way any such communication was possible was because of the nurses at the rehab home and hospital. They had iPads, and it was they who facilitated the exchanges we had, often having to "translate" to my father what we were saying due to the background noise of the oxygen machines that were sustaining him. The nurses were amazing in every aspect of their care.

There's been so much I've been meaning to catch up on, and I simply can not believe that's already been a week since my father passed away. That's mind-bending to me. What we're faced with now is the fact that, due to "social-distancing," etc, we can not have any sort of public service or celebration of his life. At first the church suggested that it might be another 6 to 8 weeks before such things are possible, but now they are saying that any services involving a choir, and any receptions involving food, will not likely be possible until...January 2021!
 :S

It's insane. We could maybe have a full service in the church without much music and without a reception, but even that would probably have to wait until late summer. The only other possibility in the short term would be a very small (no more than 5 or 6 people) private ceremony where my dad's ashes would be placed in a ceremonial garden that they have at the church for such occasions—and even that wouldn't include all the family members (of which there aren't many to begin with) due to travel restrictions that some of them are faced with.

This is what is most difficult for my mom: There's just no sense of closure for her. And since she couldn't be with him, or even near him, in the end, none of it even seems real to her.

I've got a lot more to say on this, as well as updates on the current state of things locally, but I've just been swamped with logistics, paperwork, and seemingly endless phone calls.

Should anyone be interested, my Dad's obituary was just  posted online. Here are some excerpts:

Quote
Richard Laidley Brown, the loving husband of Margaret Brown, passed away on Friday, May 22, 2020 at UConn Health, after celebrating his 91st birthday earlier that day.

Richard was born in Trail, British Columbia, Canada to Edna Laidley Brown and Wilfred Miller Brown. He spent his youth growing up in Owen Sound, Ontario, with his summers spent in the beloved town of Leith by the waters of the inlet of Georgian Bay. Following in the footsteps of both his parents, Richard attended Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada where he earned his undergraduate degree in Engineering Physics, Class of 1952. He then went on to attend Cranfield University in Cranfield, U.K., achieving his Master's in Aeronautical Engineering. After completing his schooling, Richard worked as an Aerospace Engineer at Orenda Engines, Malton, Ontario. In one of the defining chapters of his life and career, it was here that he was part of the design team for the Avro Arrow, one of the most advanced fighter aircrafts of its era and the pride of Canadian technology.

By the late 1950's, Richard met the love of his life, Margaret Lillywhite, who had travelled from her home in England to work as a nurse in Toronto. They were soon married in July 1958. With the unexpected cancelling of the Avro Arrow project by the Canadian government in 1959, Richard would be recruited by AiResearch in Phoenix, Arizona, prompting him and Margaret to relocate to the U.S. In 1963, Richard was hired by Hamilton Standard in Connecticut. He then moved his growing family to the town of West Hartford, a place he would call home, and where he continued to live until his passing.

As an avid skier throughout his life, he was also an instructor at Ski Sundown in New Hartford, CT, where he continued to be active until the age of 85. With many close, dear friends in both the U.S. and Canada, he will be dearly missed by all who knew him.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on May 29, 2020, 21:50
Thanks for posting your Dad's obit DB.

 Would've been way interesting to hear an insider's view of the project and the cancellation ...

Thanks, Kiwi!

I can share with you this, if it offers any perspective:

My mom once told me that it was only time she ever saw my dad cry. When the Arrow project was cancelled, especially so suddenly and unceremoniously, she said he went into the bathroom and just sobbed—so devastating was the shattering of dreams for so many. I can only imagine the idealism of those young engineers, and the chance to really show what Canada was capable of, at a time when the wonder of air and space travel was really gripping the world. To then have the remaining fleet scrapped was just a pill too bitter to swallow.

The Arrow has always been a part of our family lore, in a sense. I grew up knowing about it, and images of the Arrow were present right up until the very end when my dad was even using an Avro Arrow mouse pad in front of his desktop computer. It still fascinates me to see the far reach that that project has had on so many, and that it continues to this day.

I'm proud of him, and for him, for being a part of it.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 31, 2020, 15:06
It is the weekend and there tendsto be an issue with stats but 0 deaths last 24 hours in Sweden
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on May 31, 2020, 15:50
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/wildlife-markets-are-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-and-not-just-in-china-20200529-p54xks.html
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 31, 2020, 21:52
 Another reason to despair over the crippling restrictions placed upon professional sport.
London today and the police did almost nothing.

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/7799/production/_112571603_mediaitem112571543.jpg)

With the ironic title underneath: Some protesters did not appear to follow social distancing guidelines

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/13E77/production/_112572518_mediaitem112572517.jpg)

The road to the US Embassy was blocked.

"Justice for George Floyd" being the reason for protests around the 51st state.
 However, "Black Lives Matter", which they were chanting, apparently excludes death from contagious disease.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on May 31, 2020, 22:06
 Meanwhile, if he's right, it could be time to rejoice.

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says

“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.

“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.

A second doctor from northern Italy told the national ANSA news agency that he was also seeing the coronavirus weaken.

“The strength the virus had two months ago is not the same strength it has today,” said Matteo Bassetti, head of the infectious diseases clinic at the San Martino hospital in the city of Genoa.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus-idUSKBN2370OQ
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on May 31, 2020, 22:21
interesting, it may have something to do with the virus load people get faced with though? I think (the way I understood it) meanwhile there's fairly clear evidence that symptons are weaker when people get faced with a smaller load, so having less events with many people, wearing masks and so on may play its part in that.

So it may actually be more of an indication that some (targeted) restrictions need to stay in place, instead of the opposite.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 02, 2020, 16:47
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1267826525245542401?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 03, 2020, 12:11
I've had this post cued up in an open window for a couple of days now. I actually fell asleep after composing it on Monday but before sending it.
 :D

With that being said, here's what I originally wrote:


I've really wanted to update some of the local developments, just in the interest of establishing a bit of a historic record here. But the days just fly by, and I barely have time to look up in between the endless phone calls, emails, and other responsibilities associated with sorting out of one's estate.

But just to bookend one chapter in the personal saga a bit...

We came as close as possible to laying my dad to rest last Sunday. His ashes were buried in a Memorial Garden at the church, as was the plan. Due to coronavirus hysteria though, it was requested that no more than 5 to 6 people attend. But it's outdoor's FFS, and not two blocks away you have the center of town which is slowly reopening, so there are small clusters of people everywhere. Had we wanted to, we could have easily had 30 to 40 people spread out around the garden area with very little, if any, threat of killing off the weak amongst the herd. But such is the climate of paranoid, armchair epidemiologists.

So it was just me, my mom, and the Rector of the church. The entire procedure, including a few select prayers and the actual dispensing of the ashes, took less then ten minutes. When it is all over, it was all over. There was no physical contact, no consoling touch from Reverend to my mom, just more "social distancing" on display. All of which was almost comically amplified when, at the conclusion, as he was about to leave the two of us for some time to reflect on our own, I reminded him that I had a check for him (to cover the costs of the ceremony). But instead of simply reaching his hand out for it, he took the extra coronavirus-step of extending the ceremonial shovel instead, into the blade of which I placed the payment, like some sort of offering to the gardening gods.

The exchange was light-hearted from both of our perspectives, and given that my engineering father would never pass up the opportunity to utilize a tool for any given task, even if one were not remotely necessary, the exchange seemed somehow fitting beyond words. And if you think that placing payment for a final burial into the very implement that had just performed such a task is at all inappropriate, you must take into consideration the fact that it is precisely the type of gesture that someone like my father would've initiated, without thinking twice about it, based purely on the pragmatic solution it seemingly offered in the moment. Had it been possible to perform the exact same exchange using even more tools, then all the better, and more clever, it would've been in my father's eyes.

(https://cdn3.volusion.com/vtaer.napck/v/vspfiles/photos/T1409-5702001-2.jpg?v-cache=1351758962)

R.I.P.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on June 03, 2020, 12:48
Thanks for posting the obituary, DB.
Until now, the virus has stayed clear of my family and friends, so your father, though separated from me by a whole ocean, is the first Covid-19 victim I "know" - I know his name and have a connection to him.

Rest in peace, Richard Brown.

The nurses were amazing in every aspect of their care.
This is great to hear, and it underlines something that I think many people who aren't in direct contact with nursing staff tend to forget: It's not 'just' a couple of medicinal and nursing duties that they perform, but just as much - possibly even more so! - many psychological and social tasks, ones that are often little-appreciated (and recompensed).

I hope you can lay your father's remains to rest soon, in the way that is right for you, and get closure. Especially your mother for whom it must be very hard to mourn her husband's death after 62 years of marriage; particularly when she couldn't be at his side. I'm sure you're aware of this, but there are grief counseling initiatives or groups that can help her.

EDIT: We've cross-posted ...

I've had this post cued up in an open window for a couple of days now. I actually fell asleep after composing it on Monday but before sending it.
Thank you for this latest update. I hope that the ceremony provided some sort of closure to your mother, and that you can have a 'proper' ceremony in the future.

The last bit with the shovel, as absurd as it was, made me chuckle. As you say, it was an appropriate way to remember your dad.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 03, 2020, 16:36
Swedish experiments update

 https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/man-behind-sweden-s-controversial-coronavirus-strategy-admits-mistakes-20200603-p54z99.html

Hospital wards update.

Was in too 2 CoVid-19 patients today so spoke to the staff. There is a few more patients than last week but other hospital service are being planned to start, some in August but plans are being made. Basically there will be 2 hospital systems in 1. CoVid-19 or not
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 03, 2020, 17:20
So have now listened to the interview. They just saying that the basis of the Swedish experiment is still right for Sweden. But being scientists they always look for details or adjustment that they could have done differently
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 09, 2020, 15:03
Lund university hospital has started a study using cystisk fibros medication for those on respirators with very promising results.

A larger study is now started
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 21, 2020, 08:42
there has been quite a large outbreak in a slaughterhouse close (~35k) to where I live now, with more than 1000 infected already.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-german-slaughterhouse-outbreak-crosses-1000/a-53883372

It's the biggest slaughterhouse in Europe, and thereby also the biggest outbreak in the EU already, although more than half of the test results are still outstanding.

Even if it's still local, it already has a huge influence on the national numbers:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea-6vefWoAAr2RR?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea-8ow3WsAAejCt?format=jpg&name=large)

Things were looking fairly good, with most parts of life more or less going back to "normal" recently, but this could obviously mean a big change. Of course, as usual in this business, there are many migrant workers, but half of the employees are not, which (at this scale) means, that the likeliness of a bigger spread is/was relatively high.

Some people are calling for a lockdown of the region already, and I guess it could happen. There's not much awareness among the poeple anymore, summer holidays are starting next week... only positive thing is the weather.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on June 21, 2020, 12:55
 We have had a similar, though much smaller outbreak (75 cases so far) in a chicken processing factory, here in Wales.
It's on the island of Anglesey, which for the obvious reason, had had very few cases.
Food processing plants do seem to be the most susceptible to local outbreaks.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 21, 2020, 14:20
Crazy these slaughterhouse outbreaks.  Another area that needs fixing for the  future
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on June 21, 2020, 22:59
The ease of spreading in these meat plants really is a concern. There have been quite a few now where numbers have exploded.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 21, 2020, 23:10
yeah, in this case the enormous scale is a problem as well though, with more than 1000 workers indected and over 7000 quarantined. Usually Germany is running a "track and trace" kind of policy, but it's obviously almost impossible to find and isolate potential contacts for so many people newly infected at the same time.

Maybe we're lucky and it mostly has spread inside the factory and the residential blocks so far, which would mean just closing the factory could more or less be enough to keep it under control, but if not, the situation could also escalate quickly.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 22, 2020, 08:21
Reuters saying Germany's R Value increasing fast.

Was 1.79 now 2.88.

If these trends continue right or wrong don't think we will see much cycling in 2020
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 22, 2020, 08:46
well, infection numbers were fairly low before, so this big incident obviously has a massive influence on the R value. I wouldn't think it has much to say at the moment.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on June 22, 2020, 17:16
To be fair, the virus is here to stay, all the countries who’d got through it are getting new outbreaks including China, S Korea, Germany etc. It’s not going anywhere. Most countries can’t afford another lockdown.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 22, 2020, 23:20
The ease of spreading in these meat plants really is a concern. There have been quite a few now where numbers have exploded.

Why is this happening? Is it understood?
I could easily imagine a congested work environment with workers all in close proximity, but is there something more going on specific to that industry?

Have they not been taking reasonable precautions, or are there other factors (known or unknown) in play?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 23, 2020, 00:11
I've really been wanting to contribute more consistently to this thread, especially as the spread and impact of the virus ebbs and flows. I was hoping to have a reasonably compact time line to look back upon. But in addition to just being overwhelmed with other aspects of life, I'm always trying to balance between staying informed and deliberately unplugging from all media coverage.

For months on end, COVID-19 was the ONLY thing in the news, 24/7. There's only so much of that I could take.

And then it was all about the protests and racial divisions, and suddenly COVID-19 wasn't all that important to the media after all. It got entirely sidelined for a short while. But now the numbers are rising again, and the daily din of "experts" and pundits have returned.

For now, I can only reflect my personal perspective, and it's not good.
Nothing is working. Nothing is functioning correctly. It's nearly impossible for me to get anything done.

I am so thoroughly sick of having to sit across from bankers or attorneys, having no idea who I'm really dealing with because everyone is wearing mask. I can't even walk into my bank to make a simple transaction without an appointment.

Many banks are shifting most of their daily interactions to the drive-through only, which is disastrous. It reminds me of the gasoline lines during the "energy crisis" of the 1970s—lines of cars waiting one-at-a-time for what used to be routine transactions. Typically, bank drive-throughs are simply not equipped, nor were they ever designed, for the heavy load of dozens and dozens of people doing their daily banking. It's a broken system with a half-baked solution in the works. One thing I had hoped to accomplish was assisting my mom in getting online access to her account. No joke, it took five days (and that was after spending 90 minutes inside a local branch). FIVE DAYS, in 2020, to get online access to a standard bank account. Excuse after excuse was offered, and how the tech department was "working from home," and not all calls were being returned. This is what I mean: things are not functioning.

DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles)? Good luck. All their offices are still closed to the public, their website is inadequate, and when you call by phone, you're put endlessly on hold, with the occasional reminder that, "Due to heavy call load, wait times have increased." Yeah, no kidding. It's been weeks now trying to accomplish what should only take minutes.

For the less important matters in life (depending on one's perspective), it's no better.
My LBS said it would be at least 30 days to get my wheels trued. Bike shops have typically been overrun with maintenance and service requests as more and more people either discover or rediscover the benefits of cycling in the midst of these lock-downs. But I'm not even allowed to enter into the shop. All business in done from a tented area outside the store, and even then the staff is very weary of getting too close—even both they and the customers are wearing masks.

I also need a new water bottle or two, but forget that. They have nothing in stock. I'm not sure if that's due to sudden demand, or the pandemic shutdowns interrupting the supply chain, but I suspect the later based on my luck elsewhere as well. I thought I might have better luck at my local REI (national chain of outdoor sports supplies), because I also need a new backpack. Well, they're only offering "curbside pickup" of items ordered ahead of time. Well that's not going to work for me. I need to see, feel and try on any backpack I intend on purchasing. Ya' know, like any normal person might prefer in a semi-normal world. But that's not what surrounds me.

Next I stopped by the local running store in the hopes that they may have a cycling bottle (hoping for an appeal to the duathlete/triathlete market). I was "greeted" by a masked employee outside who immediately asked me if I had "an appointment." For the running store? Well, no. No, I did not have an appointment. Another failed attempt.

Then there was my adventures with Verizon wireless, one of the biggest suppliers of mobile technology.
Most of the local branches, bar one, have been closed entirely during the pandemic. At the one remaining store front, I apparently made the mistake of walking in, with gloves and mask, when there were already two customers in the store. So I was asked to leave, and to wait in my car. I gathered that they were hoping to maintain nothing more than a 1:1 ratio of customers to employees, as there were only two people working there at the time.

OK. I get it. I'll wait outside. But "in my car?" Nah, I'm good. I'll just sort of hang around until someone from inside the store leaves.

Shifting to the more social and leisurely side of things:
I had vowed not to return to any pubs or restaurants until things became normal again, because I didn't want to be served by someone with a face mask, and I didn't want to feel forbidden to strike up a conversation with a stranger, especially if that involved crossing an invisible line of death.

But I also thought it might be important to do my part to get things rolling again, and I could really, really use the distraction and diversion of being around some people in public. The joke was on me, however. As we enter a new phase of re-opening, the same scene played itself out at several establishments.

1) The only dining allowed is at outdoor tables. Which is fine, if not preferably in the summer months anyway.

2) The town has actually been doing a fair bit to encourage this by blocking off and narrowing roads with concrete barriers in the center of town, even on the busiest streets, to allow for designated dining areas to extend further out from the restaurants than would normally be possible.

But as I looked at a dozen or so empty tables, and no more than three occupied ones, I was told that there was a wait time of  90 minutes. But there was no one else around. Anywhere.
 :S

I can only assume that those who had reserved tables were lurking somewhere nearby, anxiously awaiting their text notification indicating that their appointed table had been properly cleansed and sterilized before their arrival would be allowed?

This scene repeated itself around town until I simply gave up and decided to resort to my previous mindset: I guess I'll just sit this out until the world represents something I recognize. And if it doesn't, then I'll have to adopt a "new normal" all my own that doesn't include much of the outside world.

How has all this affected me?
To be perfectly honest, it's not going well. I could easily offer a lengthy perspective in the "Are you OK" thread, but I decided to post an overview here (for now). I certainly feel that I'm fraying at the edges, and moving forward, in any meaningful way, is proving to be near impossible.

I've still many, many more thoughts on how the pandemic is affecting life, and how different parts of the country are coping, or not. But I don't want to get too carried away just yet, so I'll end this post here.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 23, 2020, 00:41
Oh, in all that ranting, I actually forgot one of the more pressing and frustrating issues that I've been faced with in all of this.

It's now going on six months that I've been trying to complete a root canal with new crown put in. Six months.

I very nearly made it just under the wire before the state-wide shutdowns, but a few delays from the lab that manufactures the crown, and some unnecessary delays on the part of the dental school (the department is part of a larger "teaching hospital" which is an extension of the University of Connecticut), and here I am, still waiting, with half a tooth in my mouth, for the work to be completed.

They've only just started to reach out to patients and reschedule appointments. However, I'm now faced with two obstacles to completing the required work.

I suspect that after all this time, I'll need another crown to be manufactured, which will cause yet even more delays. Even if not, will they still even have my original crown that was supposedly completed ages ago?

More significantly though, I'm facing a limited window on the time that I'll even be eligible for this particular insurance coverage. Had it been done months ago was it originally supposed to have been, then no problem. Moving forward? It gets more complicated by the month.

Related to all that, here's an interesting news letter that the hospital just sent out:

UConn Health Researchers Find a Simple Oral Rinse Can Inactivate the COVID-19 Virus (https://today.uconn.edu/2020/06/uconn-health-researchers-find-simple-oral-rinse-can-inactivate-covid-19-virus/)

Quote
Faculty from UConn Health have proven that a simple method of rinsing with a diluted version of over-the-counter Povidone-Iodine (PVP-I) oral rinse can kill viruses like the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus and prevent transmission in as little as 15 seconds.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to the safety of dental and medical professionals who operate in the oral and nasal cavities. Dr. Avinash Bidra, clinical associate professor of prosthodontics at the School of Dental Medicine, and Dr. Belachew Tessema, associate professor in the division of otolaryngology at the UConn School of Medicine and ENT physician at ProHealth Physicians, and their team across the nation wanted to investigate a way to decontaminate the patient’s oral and nasal cavities to protect and prevent transmission.

“We were not satisfied with the safety provided by the mouth masks and face shields,” says Bidra. “Almost all procedures involve aerosol production, resulting in a higher risk for clinicians, assistants, and patients.”


The research was recently published in the American College of Prosthodontics Journal of Prosthodontics.

“This is a simple and inexpensive method to protect oneself when coming in close contact with people,” says Bidra. “We believe this has immediate and tremendous dental public health impact for patients and for dental professionals, amidst the ongoing pandemic.”


“The safety of povidone-iodine in the sinonasal and oral cavity has been well documented and we have shown that the SARS CoV-2 virus can be rapidly inactivated by a topical application,” says Tessema. “Studies have shown that the nasal and oropharyngeal cells are reservoirs for SARS-CoV2 infection. We believe that  nasal and oral decontamination with PVP-I may play an adjunctive role in mitigating viral transmission beyond PPE.”

The researchers are also optimistic that this method can benefit those engaged in high risk activities outside of a dental or otolaryngologic setting.

“Anyone engaging in risky activities like barbers, hair dressers, or anyone coming too close to another person, may benefit from this simple method,” said Bidra.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: AG on June 23, 2020, 01:40
thinking of you DB.  Isolation and general societal issues are certainly making things tough.

Here in Aus we are incredibly lucky.  At least on my side of the country anyway.  We have just announced that from next weekend most restrictions will be dropped.  Things like major sports events can go on, but at 50% stadium capacity.  Multi-stage music events also have a few restrictions ... and venues must have 2 square metres per person.

From July 18 all restrictions will be dropped - except the hard border.   All people coming in (from inter-state or international) must quarantine in a hotel for 14 days.

Life is pretty much getting back to normal for many people anyway.  Most businesses are open, most of those working from home are transitioning back to the office, and service industries are back to providing services as normal.   Tourism and events are not back yet ... but will be slowly getting there.  Certainly tourism, given the border restrictions, people are holidaying within WA much more than they ever have.

My daughter is very happy as her dance is finally back to normal  (so sick of zoom classes), and she has a job working as an assistance coach for the younger girls which goes back this week as well :D

As far as the news is concerned though - I agree with DB.  All we heard about for months on end was the corona virus ... and then the racial issues.  Now though, Australia seems very focussed on the fact that we are doing ok, and the economic issues of dealing with recovery, and the Monday Morning review on whether or not we should have shut things down, and whether we should be opening up sooner.  News of the rest of the world is pretty few and far between.   We get the occasional info that Brazil is really struggling, but reading the news media here, you would think the global pandemic is over.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on June 23, 2020, 07:53
 Pretty much the same here in all respects, DB, except we don't have the problem you have with restaurants and bars: ours are all still closed. :fp :D
 Took me 4 attempts on 4 different days to get into my local bank, only to find the couldn't cash a simple cheque, even though it was drawn on the same branch.

 Most worrying of all is dental treatment as it doesn't look as if that will ever return to normal. Emergency treatment should be available, but people here have even resorted to pulling their own teeth.

Only yesterday, the lockdown on non-essential shops was lifted but worryingly most remained closed.

 These days our media only ever follows yours, so we have gone down the same Covid-Racism-Covid deluge.
Under cover of recent BLM protests, here in the UK, the re-branding of our historical figures is very much in vogue. Pulling down or else demanding for the removal of statues of individuals who through the centuries helped put the "great" into Great Britain.
 21st century values applied to judge just one aspect of an individual's deeds during a much different era.

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on June 23, 2020, 13:19
I’ll add not having an income for three months to all of that. And minimal help from the government during that time as I’m a Limited Company Director. Have lost about 1,500 cat visits so far at £13 a pop, the help from the government totals £1,354.54 over that three month period or about 12% of my basic outgoings since lockdown. All savings gone, have had to ask family to help me out.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 23, 2020, 15:30
I had another experience worth mentioning as well.

Our capital city of Hartford has a nationally recognized rose garden which consists of probably two acres of land—one main garden area and two sub-sections—surrounded by another two to three acres of walking paths and picnic areas.

The roses come into full bloom in the month of June, and each year brings a substantial number of visitors, and proves to be quite a popular location for wedding photos as well as the occasional outdoor wedding itself.

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcQoOEqvg2lQ8bAYlBL1LxleHydHWB7jcPdmHQ&usqp=CAU)

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTfBV1OG0hnl6hvOxBHJ7MyzxvmPSn6jtlZYA&usqp=CAU)

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTN5Swf4zGVRWZ9b6elp-YhObqYAoJWQ_0zvQ&usqp=CAU)

I have a particular fondness for the park as I used to live just one block away, and would spend many an early morning on a peaceful sunrise walk, in addition to countless concerts and other events that I've attended there over the years.

But this year, COVID phobia has taken a firm hold. At least by the powers-that-be.
On Mother's Day weekend, for example, no cars were allowed into the park at all. People could walk there on foot, but no vehicular entrance was permitted. Another brilliant "solution" to a problem that didn't really exist.

The chained barrier to the car entrance hardly kept away the crowds. What it did do was create a mess of traffic along the main roads as everyone simply parked along the curb, outside the park, instead. For some reason, people driving through the park, well inside the confines of their own cars, was deemed more threatening to public health that everyone walking about freely.

On a more recent visit, there was signs posted outside the main garden maze-like area requiring face masks to be worn by all, and of course for "social distancing" to be applied. In a display of reasonable sanity, most people on this one particularly low-attended afternoon simply ignored the signs. Very few people were closer than 15 to 20 steps from each other anyway, and things were going just fine. Until, that is, one schoolmarmish, suburban-looking housewife just couldn't resist her inner Kim Jong-un, and apparently felt the irrepressible urge to traverse the width of the park in order to scold a family of five who had the audacity to keep to themselves, away from everyone else, to take some family photos...without donning the magical, miraculous and oh-so-necessary requisite face masks.

How dare they!

Of course she let it be known that she wasn't the one establishing the protocol, it was the sign! The sign said it!

Rewardingly enough, the family simply ignored the unwanted intrusion. But this is what we've become. To me, this is a direct extension of the absurdity of newscasters wearing face masks, in all their virtue-signaling glory, while not another human is even within shouting distance. There's a time and a place for everything, but I would humbly suggest that when only a very light crowd is present in an outdoor park, imposing mandatory face coverings does little for anyone, and if anything, only has negative impacts on the fabric of society.

Incidents such as these only add to my frustration. I just find it all terribly discouraging and disappointing on so many levels. As I stated somewhere upthread, I was initially encouraged, and somewhat proud, at how people were behaving towards each other in the early stages of the pandemic. But once face mask became mandatory in public, everything inexplicably changed. Neighbors are now looked at with suspicion, and strangers are greeted with an air of contempt. Not by everyone, but it's prevalent enough to be alarming.

I still know of some people who are quarantining their mail and newspapers for three days for fear that the deadly COVID is lying in wait. The printed newspaper is already hours behind the digital news cycle, so I can't imagine reading the headlines 72 hours after-the-fact. But that's the level of concern paranoia that some folks have.

This is definitely the strangest time of my life. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Joelsim on June 23, 2020, 19:20
For some reason I can’t attach an image, says that the upload folder is full.

So, here’s a link, somewhat stark.

https://www.facebook.com/2126073340865034/posts/3204513783020979/
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on June 23, 2020, 21:24
Most worrying of all is dental treatment as it doesn't look as if that will ever return to normal. Emergency treatment should be available, but people here have even resorted to pulling their own teeth.
Here in Germany, dental appointments are up and running again, even for your usual yearly check-up.

But this is what we've become.
Madness. :S

There is no point in wearing a face mask when you're just with the people in your own household, and far from anyone else.

That said, there is also no point in wearing a face mask that covers the mouth, but not the nose, as I regularly see people do it. It is one and the same respirational system! :slow
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 24, 2020, 01:04
There is no point in wearing a face mask when you're just with the people in your own household, and far from anyone else.

One recent headline in the Hartford Courant read:

Gatherings of up to 10 people now allowed in homes (https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc-news-coronavirus-daily-updates-0529-20200529-24h4rnglznce3blez65lrwphly-story.html)

How very generous of them!  :cool

How very, very...North Korean of them.  :angry

The overreach of local governments is off the rails. I never imagined such a state of things even possible in these United States of America.

This is not the country I grew up in.   :wut

Not even close.


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 24, 2020, 12:49
R value update for Sweden.

0.91
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on June 24, 2020, 23:37
In the continuing saga of State vs State...

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut impose 14-day quarantine on travelers from Covid-19 hotspots

Quote
Governors from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut held a press conference today to announce a new travel advisory that requires a 14-day quarantine for travelers coming from coronavirus hotspots. The goal is to stop a return of the virus in the tri-state area, as the three states continue their phased reopenings.
"Hotspots" include these nine states:

Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN1XDgCvfdg

Numbers are soaring in many states, so what used to be the danger zones (the Tri-state area) are now hoping to become sanctuaries of healing and recovery. Florida, for one, only just imposed mandatory face masks in public this past week, so no surprise that their situation is only getting worse.

We are a long, long way from getting a handle on this mess.
 :wut

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 25, 2020, 07:41
And yes, in some of them - Texas, we're looking at you - the growth in cases has been significant. But, if you look at the death figures there, you'll see that, for now at least, they're basically constant. Similar comments can be made about Florida and California. (The other states haven't seen that same scale of jump in cases.)

people don't die immediately after infection though, so the death rate is more of a refleciton of the situation ~three weeks ago. In California (for example) numbers exploded mainly over the past two weeks, so you may see more of an influence at the beginning of July.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 25, 2020, 17:05
No excess deaths statistically speaking at the moment.

We still get CoVid-19 deaths but less death from other reasons.

Also mobile phone companies showing that Swedes are travelling less than our Nordic neighbours, which we be interesting to see what happens with spreading
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 26, 2020, 14:08
WHO has named 11 countries in Europe recommend not to travel too, especially in Autumn.

Sweden is one but not the UK. Which is interesting.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 26, 2020, 14:46
well, +recent infection numbers in Sweden per 100.000 are six times as high as in the UK
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 26, 2020, 15:29
There has been a massive upswing in testing. There are 171 in intensive care with CoVid-19.

Looking at the stats and then saying the health system won't cope in Autumn. The number of critical sick is dropping.

I think some of it is because Sweden went a different approach to what WHO recommend but that might be me.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on June 26, 2020, 16:36
There has been a massive upswing in testing. There are 171 in intensive care with CoVid-19.

Looking at the stats and then saying the health system won't cope in Autumn. The number of critical sick is dropping.

I think some of it is because Sweden went a different approach to what WHO recommend but that might be me.

 Also remember that the UK has a 14 day quarantine in place for arrivals from most countries.
The exceptions being some of the European countries on that list.

Sweden does look very odd compared to the others on that list, though.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 26, 2020, 22:59
I can't find much in languages I understand - we are talking about this, right?

https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/statements/2020/statement-digital-health-is-about-empowering-people

"30 countries/territories have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks. In 11 of these countries/territories (1), accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again in Europe. [...]

(1) Armenia, Sweden, Republic of Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo"


It's true that Sweden is doing more tests since recently - but those numbers are not extraordanary. More or less comparable to Germany (per capita), for example - but the numbers of positives they find are almost 20 times as high.

I agree that traveling to Sweden alone is unlikely to "push health systems to the brink", but obviously the infection risk is among the highest in Europe, and therefor I can understand that it's not recommended.

And does the UK really have a quarantine exception for one of those countries?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Mellow Velo on June 27, 2020, 07:38
I can't find much in languages I understand - we are talking about this, right?

https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/statements/2020/statement-digital-health-is-about-empowering-people

"30 countries/territories have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks. In 11 of these countries/territories (1), accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again in Europe. [...]

(1) Armenia, Sweden, Republic of Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo"


It's true that Sweden is doing more tests since recently - but those numbers are not extraordanary. More or less comparable to Germany (per capita), for example - but the numbers of positives they find are almost 20 times as high.

I agree that traveling to Sweden alone is unlikely to "push health systems to the brink", but obviously the infection risk is among the highest in Europe, and therefor I can understand that it's not recommended.

And does the UK really have a quarantine exception for one of those countries?

That's the same piece I read.
Do we? I have no idea.
This heads up the BBC news today:

Blanket restrictions on non-essential overseas travel will be relaxed in the UK from 6 July, ministers have said.

Holidaymakers are expected to be allowed to travel to certain European countries without having to spend 14 days in quarantine when they return.

They are thought to include Spain, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium, Turkey, Germany and Norway - but not Portugal or Sweden.

The full list of travel corridors with the UK will be published next week.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 27, 2020, 07:52
ahh, okay, I misunderstood your post up there. I thought you were refering to that 11 nation WHO list.

Also remember that the UK has a 14 day quarantine in place for arrivals from most countries.
The exceptions being some of the European countries on that list.

and it would be a bit surprising if they put the whole EU in quarantine, but allow visitors from Kyrgyzstan or so, to say so ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 27, 2020, 13:09
I don't see unusually spikes in the data. Weeky infections are setting new highs for the 4th week in a row now.

As you mentioned for the US above, it could be down to more younger people getting infected of course, which is less of a problem for the health system - but for a state going by a different approach to fight the virus, there's no chance to not issue a travel warning for Sweden, from my point of view. Going there results in a massively increased risk of getting infected (unless you are coming from the US or Brazil or so)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 28, 2020, 08:10
Look at the case data for Sweden and look at the last three weeks. You'll see that there are groups of 6 or 7 bars that follow a pattern of:
- low line;
- 4-5 really high bars - with the highest in the middle of the group;
- low line

Now, compare that profile to the overall graphs for Canada or Germany - or even Aussie, which is apparently having the (expected) Southern Hemisphere winter "second wave".
Those curves are all much smoother and more organic.

in Germany we do have similar spikes...

(https://i.imgur.com/Rk8Zt6j.png)
Source SWE: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
Source GER: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

...and they exist simply for the reason that many people analysing tests and/or forwarding the results don't work on the weekend. Obviously people don't get sick on Wednesday only, that's why I went for the weekly figures.

Those are 20 times as high as in Germany, 8 times as high as in the UK, with more or less similar test numbers.

(https://i.imgur.com/Xc65FtO.png)
https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

What else do you need for a "massively increased risk of getting infected"? And I don't see how whether this feels no worse than a flu or not, is of any importance for this discussion.

If this is just a personal agenda of yours to try to ridicule everything I'm saying, we can just leave this at this point by the way. Or are you still interested in a normal discussion? Then phrase your points accordingly please, and stop being such an asshole.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on June 28, 2020, 15:46
Just because we seem to be further apart on the spectrum of possible positions on covid than some of the others on this thread seem to be doesn't mean that this isn't a "normal discussion" - and your reaction to my posts likely has as much to do with your feelings on covid and your response to someone disagreeing with you as a result as it does to my delivery.

All I'm trying to do is have a debate - I enjoy testing arguments and having my own arguments tested.
From my experience, not only can the process be intellectually stimulating, it can also help inform and educate all parties involved - simply by the presentation and exchange of differing ideas and statements of position.

So, if someone debating with you over your position is not something that you want, just say - and I'll stop responding to anything that you post.

you are free to reply of course, I just find your way to do so (discrediting other opinions, because they differ from yours) sometimes very disrespectful, and not appropriate.

Of course we differ on some views, but I don't even think it should have any influence on this discussion. Whether a travel ban for Sweden is warrented or not, from my point of view is almost completely unrelated on any opinion about the virus itself, or also the Swedish way to deal with it (which we probably don't even differ on too much).
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 29, 2020, 20:30
Just putting this here

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/sweden-s-covid-expert-says-the-world-still-doesn-t-understand
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 30, 2020, 10:30
https://twitter.com/Velorooms/status/1277897084738420736?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on June 30, 2020, 15:29
https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1277691905032302593?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on July 03, 2020, 20:09
https://twitter.com/NatGeo/status/1279129544457404416?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on July 15, 2020, 01:03
Coronavirus blah blah blah...COVID 19 blah blah blah...Phase One reopening blah blah blah...Phase Two reopening blah blah blah... NUMBERS SPIKE! SOUND THE ALARM! blah blah blah...Open small businesses...Close small businesses...Open small businesses...Close small businesses...REVERSE ALL ENGINES! PANDEMIC ICE BERG, DEAD AHEAD!!!

SCHOOLS NEED TO OPEN!
SCHOOLS NEED TO STAY CLOSED!

The media have reverted to pre-summer levels of incessant whining and screeching. How they get out of bed each and every day to deliver essentially the exact same talking points, day-after-day,  for weeks on end, is beyond me. I can't even be bothered to quote any stats at this point. The warm weather states are in a state of panic—or at least their political "leaders" are. I live in one of the very areas where things are leaning towards normalcy, albeit slowly. But things are still miles and miles away from functioning correctly.

Now that California has reversed course, and trying to return to lockdown levels, more and more people are starting to revolt. You simply can not bring all of society to a halt over this virus and expect there to be anything left when it eventually dies down, or enough people die off.

The news cycle has returned to 24/7 coronavirus, because apparently there's nothing else going on in the world to report on. Black Lives Matter (not that anyone had suggested otherwise) but only so far as the coronavirus hysteria will allow for. They had a good run for a couple of weeks, but now it's back to all virus, all the time.

Smaller businesses around here still seem to be making up the rules as they go along. No one is getting ahead of recent state guidelines, but plenty of places are staying well behind. Bike shops, as an example, are completely unpredictable. Some have allowed for customers to enter their shops again, as long as masks are being worn. Others, however, are strictly curb-side service only with no admittance into the shop allowed.

Many restaurants and bars are operating at very limited capacity, and typically only allowing for outdoor seating. Others, however, are still closed completely.

Some grocery stores still have lines outside as the flow of people inside is kept to a minimum. Others have a completely open-door policy without issue.

Town Halls and state agencies, like motor vehicle departments, are still in a pathetic state of disarray and half-assed management.

Theres's still months of warm weather left, but when Fall arrives and Winter begins to hint at the inevitable change, dining outside is no longer going to cut it, and most people will be thoroughly exhausted by the parental nature of news coverage.

God only knows what our November presidential elections will bring, but regardless of the outcome, half the country will be angrier than they are now, and the other half will be even less cooperative. Fun times ahead. If more of life doesn't return to some semblance of "normal" by then, you can expect to see one of the more tumultuous times in recent U.S. history.

(https://krissacurran.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/american-eagle.jpg)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on July 15, 2020, 13:33
On a different note...

I am very curious to see if the UFC manages to pull off the upcoming bout between...

If anyone can pull this off successfully, it's Dana White and the UFC. And I have full confidence that they will. What I'm most curious about at this point is how they will take advantage of not having a live audience.

Well, fast-forward a few months, and the UFC did prove to be the first of the pro sports organizations to find a way, no matter what, to return to business.

One key element to realizing that?

Fight Island

(https://dmxg5wxfqgb4u.cloudfront.net/styles/inline/s3/2020-06/UFC%20Fight%20Island.jpg?3wnxwkXHRn_v3KGa8V0J226l_TGkVzGs&itok=CLy5jjP9)

This is a pretty extraordinary undertaking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOOlIXLOQ40
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on August 11, 2020, 19:35
https://twitter.com/UnrollHelper/status/1292876861891129344?
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on August 12, 2020, 13:33
Followed by this

https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293344524731691008?

So basically back to who knows
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on October 02, 2020, 06:16
If this didn't raise alarm bells...

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311859538279239686

 :-x


this one certainly will!  :beaten

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849
The Internet will not survive this.

 :o STRAP IN, EVERYONE!!!  :o
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on October 02, 2020, 07:01
Get well soon Mrs T.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Archieboy on October 06, 2020, 08:52
So after a speedy recovery Trump has left  Walter Reed M C and people,e are asking did Hope Hicks pass it on to him. Reports are that he gave it her. Repeatedly.

Meanwhile Melania has 'a headache' apparently. Medics are questioning  if this is different to her usual nightly ' headache'
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on October 11, 2020, 12:27


https://www.rtbf.be/info/regions/liege/detail_la-prison-de-huy-confinee-plusieurs-detenus-sont-positifs-au-covid-19?id=10605708

La prison de Huy placée en confinement : plusieurs détenus sont positifs au Covid-19

The Huy prison is placed into confinement : several detainees/prisoners are positive for Covid-19


------

I shouldn't laugh but isn't it the very nature of a prison to be in quarantine ?  :lol


It means that the prisoners can no longer get visits nor do any activities actually.

Who knows they may have contamined the Arrow's peloton.  :P

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on November 26, 2020, 00:11
What a long, strange trip it's been. To say the very least.

It's always so fascinating to read back on the first few pages of this thread.

So, where are we now, eight months later?

The virus is still spreading, with many areas seeing record numbers of positive cases. Within the U.S., those more rural areas that were originally spared the first wave of intensity that ravaged the big, coastal cities are now getting their own turn on the pandemic wheel.

Even my home state, that had mostly been an example of how to do things right, is seeing the numbers creep back up, with some previously-relaxed restrictions being implemented yet again. The exact standards being applied, though, still varies greatly from one business to the next, even when those businesses literally share the same walls. Some cafes are running at greatly-reduced indoor capacity while others, sometimes right next door, are allowing for curbside pick-up only. Meanwhile, others still have shut their doors permanently.

As the trends are getting worse rather than better across the country, we are just now kicking off our holiday season. Tomorrow, Thursday, November 26th is Thanksgiving, and traditionally one of the biggest travel weekends of the year. People are being asked (not quite urged) to keep family gatherings to a minimum, and to refrain from long-distance travel, but I'm not sure how much of a reduction in those well-worn habits is going to occur. Grocery stores, for example, that would be seen to have carefully controlled lines of people, patiently waiting their turns outside with fashionable social distancing on display back in May, now appear to be "business as usual" with crowded aisles and frantic parking lots as families stock up on holiday items for those very same gatherings that are supposedly not going to be taking place.

Add to all of that the arrival of Christmas, and we seem to be doing everything we can to usher in a Janaury and February that will far eclipse the number of patients that we saw during the first "peak" of the pandemic several months ago. 

I've some more personal perspectives to share, and of course the immenent arrival of a vaccine should be discussed. But I am reduced, for the time being, to having to convey all this through an iPad. Not my weapon of choice, that's for sure.
(I'll likely be better off dictating into my phone for my next attempt.)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on November 30, 2020, 15:28
Some more personal experiences to share.

A few months after my dad passed away last May, we moved my mom into a nursing home, which was no small feat in the age of Covid. After having been ravaged by the coronavirus, many homes simply weren't admitting anyone, for fear of setting off another outbreak. On that note: those that were allowing for new patients generally weren't the type of places where you'd want to send a loved one. But we got lucky and found a highly reputable facility that was willing to accept her. And just in time, as it turns out, because it's getting increasingly difficult to gain entrance to any of the quality homes as the virus is making its winter comeback.

All that being said, I just wanted to share a bit about what the experience has been like from a family perspective. Again, keep in mind that my mother is in one of the better facilities in the state.

For starters, she's been there approximately four months now, and not once have we been allowed to enter the facility ourselves, outside of a very limited "meeting" area. Not once have we been allowed to take my mom out for even a casual stroll around the grounds for sunshine, fresh air and the like. Having suffered a stroke some years ago, she is confined to a wheelchair and certainly not able to manage such a thing on her own.

Due to Covid, the general guidelines only allow for one visit per family per week, and those are limited to either 20 or 30 minutes depending on staffing and other various factors. For those visits, physical distancing of 6 feet is required, with masks being mandatory for everyone. If any items are brought from outside, they must be given to the front desk as nothing is allowed to be given directly to any of the residents themselves. Not that anything, whatsoever, is done to said items as far as sterization or what have you, it's simply yet another example of meaningless bureaucratic overreach--one more hoop to jump through so that administrators can add another check mark to their endless list of restrictions in order to prove their value to the state.

During the warmer months at least, these brief visits took place inside of an open-air courtyard within the confines of the main building itself. For the past few months, however, all visits have been moved inside to what appears to be a modestly-sized, unused auditorium/gathering hall. But now, in addition to the mandatory masks and "social distancing," they've placed a plexiglass shield in the middle of a table that we're supposed to sit opposite sides of. Two out of the three restrictions I might understand, but all three? Nonsense. It's completely absurd.

Tell me: How is any of this different from a prison visit?

To further complicate matters, whenever a staff member happens to test positive for Covid-19 (everyone, from staff to residents are tested at least once a week) everything goes into a 14-day quarantine lockdown, and all visits are halted during that time. Should any new positives occur during that period, then the 14-day clock is reset and the whole process repeats itself.

(I've just noticed that this iPad is not recharging as it should, so I'll post this for now before I lose everything.)

To be continued...

Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on November 30, 2020, 20:04
As I was saying...

So that's what I'm in the middle of currently: I was supposed to see my mom on Dec 3rd, but then that got bumped up to Dec 7th when someone on staff tested positive. Then, just as I was finishing my previous post, I got a call from the nursing home informing me of yet another positive test result, so now the Dec 7th visit has been scrapped. In fact, all visits are on hold, and they're not scheduling any new ones until this all gets sorted out on their end.

There are several problems with this entire scenario.
First off, the over-protected visits are infuriating for many reasons. Being forced to keep distance while also wearing masks makes it nearly impossible to communicate clearly with an elderly woman who already speaks softly and who is, unsurprisingly, already confused by her surroundings. She never gets any any interaction with other residents, and all her interactions with the staff are when they are wearing masks (she doesn't wear one when she's in her own room, but certainly everyone coming in does).

This means that, among other things, it's very difficult for me judge her overall appearance and general state of health when I can never even clearly see her whole face. And as we all well know, there's much more to personal communication than just the words being spoken. Without those full facial expressions, and the subtle lip-reading that one naturally employs when it's hard to hear someone, such "face-to-face" encounters are rendered near meaningless. I often walk away wondering, What was the point of that?

Now, the staff does facilitate video calls through FaceTime, and those are turning out to be more rewarding and revealing than the theatrics of the farcical in-person encounters. But they're not an adequate replacement for the real thing.

The other main point of contention that I've had as a result of never being allowed entrance to her actual living quarters, is that very early after her arrival there, I had dropped off some of her clothes for her. However, these mysteriously never made their way to her room, and as a result, she was often dressed in someone else's clothes when I would see her.
 :S

No matter how many people we pressed on the matter, or how many different stories we were offered, her original clothes never materialized. Where they ended up, I've still no idea. Which also begs the question of: Just whose clothes is she wearing?! Someone else must be missing their own clothes as well! Since then, I've been very careful to not only label every item dropped off with her name embedded, but to also take accurate pictures of every item ahead of time as well. Lesson learned.

I offer that last story only to illustrate the type of frustrating scenario that, we're it not for pandemic restrictions, could likely be solved and resolved within minutes if I were able to investigate first hand, instead of months passing with still zero results.

And to revisit the previously-stated issue:
With all the restrictions and rules being placed upon family visits, the most threatening circumstances are still as they've always been: that of staff members being exposed to Covid outside of work, which puts everyone and everything inside of work at risk.

I haven't tested positive, nor has my mother ever tested positive. Yet our interactions are completely dictated by the behavior and actions of others.

In spite of all of the above, I'm confident that my mom is otherwise being well cared for, and there are a number of indicators that tell me that. But there's no doubt in my mind that she is fading a bit mentally, mostly due to boredom and an overall lack of meaningful stimulation.  Having lost her husband of more than sixty years, and then to find herself living in a world completely detached from any sense of normalcy, would be detrimental to anyone's frame of mind. But she simply requires more care than we could continue to provide at home for her, and these are the times that we live in.

So very strange, indeed.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 03, 2020, 11:54
The City of Angels...descending into a hellscape.   :S


Residents in city of Los Angeles to ‘remain in their homes’ amid COVID-19 surge, mayor’s office says (https://ktla.com/news/local-news/residents-in-city-of-los-angeles-ordered-to-remain-in-their-homes-amid-covid-19-surge/amp/)

Quote
All residents within the city of Los Angeles should continue to remain in their homes and follow the city’s “safer-at-home” order, which mirrors guidance from L.A. County, according to the mayor’s office.

A public order posted on the mayor’s website Wednesday detailed many of the restrictions, including a ban on some travel with a variety of exemptions.

Email and text alerts from the city’s NotifyLA System also went out Wednesday, although the mayor’s deputy press secretary, Harrison Wollman, said the guidance has been in place for days.

Quote
Mirroring the county’s order, all public and private gatherings with people from more than one household are prohibited, except for outdoor faith-based services and protests.

Failure to comply with the new health order will constitute a misdemeanor subject to fines and imprisonment, according to the document. The mayor urged the Los Angeles Police Department and the city attorney to “vigorously enforce this.”

“My message couldn’t be simpler,” Mayor Eric Garcetti said in a briefing earlier Wednesday. “It’s time to hunker down. It’s time to cancel everything. And if it isn’t essential, don’t do it.”

The new order comes after Los Angeles County reported a total of 2,439 people hospitalized for the virus Wednesday, more than on any other day during the pandemic.

You have to admire the classic government-speak.
Of course it's not a "stay at home" order. No, no, no.

It's a "safer at home" edict. See the difference?  :wut


Public Order Under City of Los Angeles Emergency Authority (https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/page/file/20201202%20Mayor%20Public%20Order%20Targeted%20SAH%20Order_1.pdf)

If I'm reading that right, running on the beach is allowed, but not "sitting or sunbathing."

Oh, and of course "protests" are allowed. Uh huh. We'll see about that.

Good luck, L.A.  You won't have a city to return to.   :sick
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on December 03, 2020, 21:37
Seems somewhat less severe than the spring lockdowns in most of Europe. 
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on December 03, 2020, 22:37
yeah, France has had something like that for basically the majority of the year, apart from the Summer months. They just relaxed it a bit, meaning you are now allowed to leave your house for two hours a day or so again.

in Germany we have a light lockdown at the moment (since end of-October), with restaurants, pubs, all cultural institutions and so on closed, and it's only enough to stabalize the infection numbers at a high level, not to bring them down.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 04, 2020, 14:42
The U.S. numbers are all peaking right now.

I've stopped paying attention to the specifics because every day it's, "the highest number of positives in a day, the highest number of hospitalization, highest number of single-day deaths" etc. Every day it's the same story.

But the reporting is getting lazier and lazier as they're not providing much on specifics. I don't know what the demographics are for those who are succumbing, but personally, besides my own father,  I don't know anyone else who has died from Covid. So it's not as if these rising numbers equate to dead bodies lining the streets. Although network and cable news would have you believe otherwise.

Our soon-to-be Scarecrow-in-chief wants to implement a "100 day" mask policy, which would essentially mean February to early May 2021. Under what specific conditions, we haven't been told yet. But this is doomed to failure. I already wear one when I'm supposed to, and never do when it's not neccessary. My personal habits are not going to change one bit based on totally arbitrary guidelines from a geriatric puppet.

Vaccinations should be well under way by then anyway, not that I plan on being first in line.

I'm not opposed to it, nor am desperate to receive a vaccination. So we will just have to wait and see what unfolds.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 04, 2020, 15:35
Speaking of vaccines...

Is this real? :slow

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HuMbRBTZhCY

The Coronavirus Vaccine Uncensored | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. & Del Bigtree
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: LukasCPH on December 04, 2020, 15:43
Speaking of vaccines...

Is this real? :slow
Well, it's RFK Jr. He is, to put it mildly, round the bend. :S

If he told me the sky was blue, I'd look up to check. ;)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on December 04, 2020, 16:36
things may still go wrong for a small number of people, but in the end it's a calculated risk. On the Philippines for example (if this very quick Google "research" was correct) 3 out of 870.000 vaccinated children died due to that medication. And as he pointed out, this was a huge scandal, and it was recalled afterward. The vaccine from the 1960's he mentioned never was approved to begin with, as far as I can see, those incidents happened during the study. So we are beyond that point already with the current one.

Personally, I see no other option than taking that risk anyway.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on December 09, 2020, 15:23
I don't know why but a thought crossed my mind today. Is it possible that there had been Covid-19 cases in Antarctica. Apparently not and most of all the scientists are taking every measure possible to keep the White Continent safe. Repatriating a scientist from Antarctica seems to be even harder than repatriating a cosmonaut from a space nation. If it ever happens, that would be a disaster.

On 28th November, some 80 French scientists went to Antarctica. It's essential that the station be 365 days year occupied and besides research about climate change need to proceed. However, usually they would sent 120 scientists to the continent, so it's a reduced contingent.

https://www.leparisien.fr/societe/covid-19-voyage-en-antarctique-epargnee-par-le-virus-l-incroyable-periple-des-scientifiques-28-11-2020-8411056.php

(https://www.leparisien.fr/resizer/_GL0kZ9olEozphWG2wootvpbvPU=/932x582/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/leparisien/V5SUIUFZUINXAF27LDM6NLEVUE.jpg)

(https://www.leparisien.fr/resizer/G81QnHpg6CVojxq1rCSby1jxMR0=/949x1280/cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/leparisien/GHWJSWLNBVQLTNVD5DLTGGUCIU.jpg)

So they did a 22-hour plane trip to Hobart, Tasmania (with stopovers), stayed isolated in Hobart for a fortnight (with PCR testing) and then moved on to the Concordia and Dumont d'Urville stations in Antarctica, the trip from Hobart to the Antarctica stations were both done twice, the one to the Dumont d'Urville station is either done by plane or by ship.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 13, 2020, 14:38
I'm not sure what to make if this recent study. The evidence appears to be compelling, but where does that leave us? Don't go out? Ever? Hunker down endlessly?

As it is, society is not functioning correctly. If even stricter limitations are imposed, then the breaking point will only loom larger. The powers-that-be are playing with fire, and they shouldn't be surprised if the remaining frayed, fabric begins to combust.

I've little faith that a vaccine is going to provide the necessary relief, as that's not going to solve the much bigger problem of unchecked power and media fear-mongering. Both of those show no sign of abating, regardless of how effective a vaccine may or may not be. 2021 could very well have people looking back on the dysfunction of 2020 as, "the good old days."

My other concern is that "President Harris" will be incapable of effectively navigating her way through the oncoming storm, as I fully expect Biden to either step down or drop dead before 2022. But I digress...

Anyway, I won't try to quote from the article in question. Just a link:

Infected after 5 minutes, from 20 feet away: South Korea study shows coronavirus’ spread indoors

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/five-minutes-from-20-feet-away-south-korean-study-shows-perils-of-indoor-dining-for-covid-19 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/five-minutes-from-20-feet-away-south-korean-study-shows-perils-of-indoor-dining-for-covid-19)
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on December 13, 2020, 17:50
Anyway, I won't try to quote from the article in question. Just a link:

Infected after 5 minutes, from 20 feet away: South Korea study shows coronavirus’ spread indoors

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/five-minutes-from-20-feet-away-south-korean-study-shows-perils-of-indoor-dining-for-covid-19 (https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-12-09/five-minutes-from-20-feet-away-south-korean-study-shows-perils-of-indoor-dining-for-covid-19)

here is also a German infographic you can play with a bit, to see the risk of an aerosol based infection in closed rooms, per room-size and amount of time spent (and also additional measures, if you like to add, like different type of masks and so on)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnvwQmSXYAMy_h5.jpg)

https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-11/coronavirus-aerosole-ansteckungsgefahr-infektion-hotspot-innenraeume
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 14, 2020, 14:12
here is also a German infographic you can play with a bit

Das sieht interessant aus, aber ich konnte nichts davon verstehen, weil ich kein Deutsch spreche.  :P
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on December 14, 2020, 15:04
hehe, I actually thought it was fairly self explanatory. "Raumgröße" is the size of the room, "Dauer" the duration in hours, and "Personen" the amount of persons in the room - and it then shows the probability for you to get infected, if there is one infectious person in that room.

You can then add additional factors at the bottom (type of mask, air flow, ceiling height, duration- and volume of speech).

For the example from Korea you quoted (~100m2, half an hour, ~30 person, lots of loud speaking), based on the data which is used for the visualizaion, you end up with a 3% chance to get infected then.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Armchair Cyclist on December 14, 2020, 19:36
Click on the link to read it in English, and you don't even need it to be self explanatory.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 15, 2020, 12:28
The vaccine has arrived here, and I believe we're one of the first locations to receive it.

In fact, the nursing where my mom is had their own delivery yesterday.

I'm not sure that this quite equates to, "a date some are comparing to when America landed a man on the moon."  :S  ...but it is newsworthy.

Vaccine Arrives in Hartford and Inoculations Begin, Providing Hope Against COVID-19

https://healthnewshub.org/vaccine-arrives-in-hartford-and-inoculations-begin-providing-hope-against-covid-19/ (https://healthnewshub.org/vaccine-arrives-in-hartford-and-inoculations-begin-providing-hope-against-covid-19/)

Nine months after the first COVID-19 patients emerged at Hartford HealthCare (HHC) hospitals, a vaccine arrived that is expected to change the course of the worldwide pandemic.

Nearly 2000 doses of coronavirus vaccine arrived at Hartford Hospital at 6:43 a.m. on Monday, Dec. 14, a date some are comparing to when America landed a man on the moon.

With Gov. Ned Lamont and a large contingent of media on hand at Hartford Hospital, the first inoculation in Connecticut began immediately with staff from across HHC. Lamont and HHC President and Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey A. Flaks both referred to the vaccine arrival as historic and praised healthcare workers for their courage during a pandemic that has now killed more than 300,000 people across the United States.

Packed in dry ice, the vaccine shipment was received at Hartford Hospital and moved to the hospital’s ultra-cold freezer — purchased specifically to accommodate the vaccine — for storage at minus-100 degrees. Doses were defrosted and shipped to clinic sites at other Hartford HealthCare hospitals, including Backus Hospital, Charlotte Hungerford Hospital, The Hospital of Central Connecticut, MidState Medical Center, St. Vincent’s Medical Center and Windham Hospital, where clinics will be held for frontline staff.

“I could not be more proud of all you have done and how far we have come,” Flaks said. “The talent and expertise of our entire team, in every area of Hartford HealthCare, made sure we were ready for this crucial moment. Today, you are part of history.”

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, frontline healthcare workers and those living in skilled nursing facilities are eligible to receive the vaccine first. The vaccine, while not mandatory, is recommended for all healthcare workers.

At Hartford HealthCare, distribution will be prioritized for those staff (both clinical and clinical support) who work directly in areas that care for COVID-19 patients.

In the coming weeks, HHC expects to receive enough vaccines for all staff.

“I want to recognize their courage,” said Flaks, referring to staff members who have been caring for COVID-19 patients for the past nine months. “These are people who protect us when we are most vulnerable. . . . I have enormous gratitude, incredible appreciation and respect, beyond what I can put into words, for what I see from our team, our front-line healthcare workers, every day.”

Lamont called the arrival of the vaccine “the arrival of a new day,” but cautioned people to continue to wear masks and practice social distancing until enough people receive the vaccine — a process that is expected to take several months.

Hartford HealthCare Senior Director of Infectious Disease Keith Grant, the first front-line worker to get vaccinated on Monday (see photo above), added that the vaccine is 95 percent effective, compared to flu shots which are generally below 60 percent. Still, because of the time it takes for enough people to get the required two doses — 28 days between injections — people should not let their guard down. He said especially during the holiday season, people should avoid gathering with anyone outside of their household.

Despite the need to remain cautious, the vaccine offers renewed hope against the coronavirus.

“This is a tremendous moment for our state, for our region, and for our country,” Flaks said.


Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: just some guy on December 15, 2020, 13:07
Swedish experiments update. Things are turning to sh*t. Spring and Summer were ok, hospital staff are toast. Peak of deaths should be about 3 or 4 weeks in the future.

Over death rate will be pretty high, middle of Summer we were lower than normal. Christmas comes at completely the wrong time
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 16, 2020, 14:08
Meanwhile...

The Netherlands, Germany and England all imposing strict lockdowns through the holiday season?

To what extent? And who else is joining the party?

Looks to be a grim winter ahead of us.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: search on December 16, 2020, 15:32
The Netherlands, Germany and England all imposing strict lockdowns through the holiday season?

To what extent? And who else is joining the party?

over here in Germany it's called "strict", but it basically only means that non-essential stores are closing, and that going to school is not compulsory anymore (restaurants, bars and all cultural activities already were closed before). So it's still more relaxed than in other countries.

The number of people you're allowed to meet it restricted (up to 5 people from 2 households), but over christmas each household can invite 4 relatives + children, so for most it won't make much of a difference. I'd be surprised if it leads to a significant drop of infection numbers, but for christmas most people would ignore stricter rules anyway I guess, so some compromise needed to be found.

Many experts are pointing at Ireland as a positive example, and how they brought down the numbers, but over there even factories and stuff were closed, so it's difficult to compare. Personally I believe that a "the stricter, the shorter" approach can work, but not right now.
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Drummer Boy on December 20, 2020, 13:57
So a new strain of the virus has emerged, which is reportedly 70% more transmissible than previous variants, although it is said to be no more lethal or dangerous than the original coronavirus responsible for the pandemic.

As a result, it would appear that Boris Johnson is, essentially, canceling Christmas this year.

Southern England appears to be the hot spot for this, making the U.K.'s European brethren none too happy.

Belgians, Dutch, Austrians halt UK flights, fearing variant
https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/belgians-dutch-halt-uk-flights-fearing-virus-variant/ar-BB1c5bAt (https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/belgians-dutch-halt-uk-flights-fearing-virus-variant/ar-BB1c5bAt)

However, this is all terribly confusing to me, as I've been told, for months now, that any spread of the virus is Trump's fault. The mainstream media has assured me of this, repeatedly. Renowned epidemiologist Joe Biden even assured me of this with a specific number of deaths attributable to The Bad Orange man. So how could the virus, in any form, possibly still be spreading in parts of the world not under the direct control of POTUS? Inquiring minds want to know.

Inquiring minds also want to know when local and regional politicians are going to be placed in stockades, on the town green, for days on end to suffer as much public humiliation and ridicule as possible for their mishandling of the pandemic and their abuse power. But I digress...
Title: Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
Post by: Echoes on December 23, 2020, 18:42
So now that's it. All continents on earth are affected !

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/covid-cases-recorded-in-antarctica-for-first-time


Covid cases recorded in Antarctica for first time – reports


Isolated continent reportedly registers first infections after 36 Chileans fall ill at research base

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/540a045d3deaf573826a0cc80c11d75f706c7d8a/82_0_2301_1382/master/2301.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b8580e3f5234d0b4bad52b4898e1c9fa)



Antarctica, once the only continent not to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic, has reportedly recorded its first cases. The 36 new infections are among people stationed at a Chilean research base and include 26 members of the Chilean army and 10 maintenance workers.

Spanish-language media reported the outbreak at the General Bernardo O’Higgins Riquelme research base on Monday.

In a statement, the Chilean army said: “Thanks to the timely preventive action … it was possible to relieve said personnel, who, after being subjected to a medical control and the administration of a PCR test ... turned out to be positive for Covid-19,” according to Newsweek. It reported that three crew members on a ship providing support to the base have also tested positive since returning from their mission to Antarctica.

The 36 individuals who tested positive have since been evacuated to the city of Punta Arenas in Chile, where they are reported to be under isolation and in good condition.

General Bernardo O’Higgins Riquelme is one of 13 Chilean bases on the island, the ABC reports.

Trying to keep the virus at bay in Antarctica has come at a cost. All major research projects in the Antarctic have been halted. As a result, research by scientists around the world has been interrupted.

While the continent has no permanent residents, it 1,000 researchers and other visitors stayed on the island over winter, according to the Associated Press.

In March, as the world locked down in response to Covid’s rapid spread, the Antarctic programs agreed the pandemic could become a major disaster. With the world’s strongest winds and coldest temperatures, the continent roughly the size of the United States and Mexico is already dangerous for workers at its 40 year-round bases.

According to a document by the Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs seen by the Associated Press: “A highly infectious novel virus with significant mortality and morbidity in the extreme and austere environment of Antarctica with limited sophistication of medical care and public health responses is high risk with potential catastrophic consequences.”