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What should be the go on round 3?

Same system.
4 (28.6%)
Double picks (therefore next round we will do 8 picks)
10 (71.4%)
other. please specify.
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 14


timmy

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Re: Cycling Manager Season
« Reply #90 on: February 14, 2012, 23:29 »
that is right yes.
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  • Tuart

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #91 on: February 15, 2012, 01:48 »
    No, it really actually makes no difference if its an actual snake draft of the draft we have now.

    Hitch's analogy would work...if the rounds were picks. There will always be a huge disparity between those that get the top picks in the first round because the gap is bigger, no amount of trying to equalise it will work whether you try to balance it in 2 rounds, 4 or 8 because Gilbert is Gilbert, or actual GT winners are few and far between.

    As it is the way it is now, their order in the draft and picks, everyone gets still equal chance the same, its just a more complicated draft order.  Ryaguas as an example:

    Our Draft: 2+31+47+50=130
    Normal Snake:2+31+34+63=130

    Anyway, it's actually a bit rich someone who's 2nd in the draft complaining that their picks are too far apart. You still get "double picks" once a quarter and you have the luxury of picking 2nd (and with who went first you really got the #1 pick) and after 4 rounds the cream is still there to pick from, which is still a minimal loss compared to the gain of who went first round.
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    Ryaguas

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #92 on: February 15, 2012, 02:21 »
    I'm not actually complaining just trying to show an scenario... come on I got Gilbert and that is awesome... but in an scenario where there is no a total dominator of the points of the WT (e.g. Contador, Gilbert) and there is a lot of teams, i.e, more than 30, the persons who picks in the top 5 could see their chances a bit touched...

    Hey another way to decide the places of the draft could be like they do it in the NBA, the worst team picks 1st, etc... example:

    At the end of the season the ranking was something like

    Timmy
    Tuarts
    The Hitch
    Zam
    Ryaguas
    DT
    Havetts
    Hugo
    JSG
    Mc

    Well the next year the order of the pick would be something like:

    Mc
    JSG
    Hugo
    Havetts
    DT
    etc...

    That could be the first round... then in the next round use the program to choose new places and keep that order... I keep throwing ideas haha
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    Jraama

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #93 on: February 15, 2012, 02:57 »
    I like the idea of re-randomizing every round (set of 4 picks). The average draft is the same for each set of 4 picks, so re-setting the order each time means you have a shot of getting the #1 pick for that round.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #94 on: February 15, 2012, 03:04 »
    No, it really actually makes no difference if its an actual snake draft of the draft we have now.

    Hitch's analogy would work...if the rounds were picks. There will always be a huge disparity between those that get the top picks in the first round because the gap is bigger, no amount of trying to equalise it will work whether you try to balance it in 2 rounds, 4 or 8 because Gilbert is Gilbert, or actual GT winners are few and far between.

    As it is the way it is now, their order in the draft and picks, everyone gets still equal chance the same, its just a more complicated draft order.  Ryaguas as an example:

    Our Draft: 2+31+47+50=130
    Normal Snake:2+31+34+63=130

    .

    There will be a disparity but Im trying to make that disparity smaller (even though in my position as 3rd seed I would stand to gain from a larger disparity ;))

    I dont quite know what your numbers adding up mean. Yes the total = the same but it ignores the fact that for the last person on the list, having their 3rd pick at 33 is a lot better  than having their 3rd pick at 46.

    You are much better at maths and stats than I am so maybe you can help me out here but I suggest a formula which puts more weight on the 1st pick than the 2nd pick, more weight on the 2nd than 3rd and so on.

    Lets take your comparison of our draft to a snake draft

    Our Draft: 2+31+47+50=130
    Normal Snake:2+31+34+63=130

    So the person in last place would have

    Our Draft:16 17 33 64.

    Snake Draft: 16 17 48 49.


    In the same way that having the 1st best rider is a major advantage over having the 16th and 17th best riders, is it not a small advantage to have the 33rd best rider over having the 48th and 49th best ones?

    A direct example of this would be Uran.

    Under this draft Hugo got the 34th pick rather than the 47th one (as he would have had under your system).

    Ryaguas coincidentally took his place in 47th rather than 34th space.

    Hugo chose Rigoberto Uran. This is the rider Ryaguas wanted. Under your system Ryaguas not only would have had the Gilbert advantage he also would have had first choice over Uran. But he didnt, and by the time his turn did come around he didnt know what to do and chose Flecha.

    Yes Hugo did have to take a seat back next time round and take Pettachi but I think he would rather have that than having had to wait all the way till he 47th pick in the crucial 3rd round.

    Under the snake draft it seems the top seeds have first seat at the table all of the time.
    Under the current draft system, while it may not be the biggest consolation, at least the bottom seeds get to go first for those mid to higher level riders in the 30's positions.
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    The Hitch

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #95 on: February 15, 2012, 03:07 »
    I'm not actually complaining just trying to show an scenario... come on I got Gilbert and that is awesome... but in an scenario where there is no a total dominator of the points of the WT (e.g. Contador, Gilbert) and there is a lot of teams, i.e, more than 30, the persons who picks in the top 5 could see their chances a bit touched...

    Hey another way to decide the places of the draft could be like they do it in the NBA, the worst team picks 1st, etc... example:

    At the end of the season the ranking was something like

    Timmy
    Tuarts
    The Hitch
    Zam
    Ryaguas
    DT
    Havetts
    Hugo
    JSG
    Mc

    Well the next year the order of the pick would be something like:

    Mc
    JSG
    Hugo
    Havetts
    DT
    etc...

    That could be the first round... then in the next round use the program to choose new places and keep that order... I keep throwing ideas haha

    Yes but in the NBA the teams get to keep their best players ;)

    Chicago Bulls for example don't lose Michael Johnson next draft pick (so 1990's I know). They keep him and get last draft pick.

    You meanwhile, if you win, will not get to keep Gilbert so the game starts on a level playing field unlike NBA which is designed to level out a unlevel playing field
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  • timmy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #96 on: February 15, 2012, 03:21 »
    hitch point is basically made with rya.
    while rya got a great first pick, he disliked he placement of picks after this.
    But that is what happens when you get first pick, to even if it up.
    So yes hitch has a point.

    Tuarts alsohas a poitnw ith the average pick tho, and all in all it isn't a huge difference regardless of the system.

    But I like the reverse draft we are doing atm, the fact rya has expressed the difficult after the first pick shows it evens it up to some degree.

    Tho I still think the first few picks is a massive advantage, but there is no way around that.

    if people are keen on getting new draft order next round (majorty rule i suppose) we can organise that. 
    But I don't think it is a huge issue either way.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #97 on: February 15, 2012, 04:34 »
    Well see how it goes but i guess for next year we could cap rider points based on where they are picked
     so anyone picked 1st round gets say half points, second round 60% third 70% of total fourth round gets 80% fifth 90 % and everything after full points making each pick therefore as important as the last and not giving any huge advantage to whoever picks valverde.
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  • Tuart

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #98 on: February 15, 2012, 13:44 »
    There will be a disparity but Im trying to make that disparity smaller (even though in my position as 3rd seed I would stand to gain from a larger disparity ;))

    I dont quite know what your numbers adding up mean. Yes the total = the same but it ignores the fact that for the last person on the list, having their 3rd pick at 33 is a lot better  than having their 3rd pick at 46.

    You are much better at maths and stats than I am so maybe you can help me out here but I suggest a formula which puts more weight on the 1st pick than the 2nd pick, more weight on the 2nd than 3rd and so on.

    Lets take your comparison of our draft to a snake draft

    Our Draft: 2+31+47+50=130
    Normal Snake:2+31+34+63=130

    So the person in last place would have

    Our Draft:16 17 33 64.

    Snake Draft: 16 17 48 49.


    In the same way that having the 1st best rider is a major advantage over having the 16th and 17th best riders, is it not a small advantage to have the 33rd best rider over having the 48th and 49th best ones?

    A direct example of this would be Uran.

    Under this draft Hugo got the 34th pick rather than the 47th one (as he would have had under your system).

    Ryaguas coincidentally took his place in 47th rather than 34th space.

    Hugo chose Rigoberto Uran. This is the rider Ryaguas wanted. Under your system Ryaguas not only would have had the Gilbert advantage he also would have had first choice over Uran. But he didnt, and by the time his turn did come around he didnt know what to do and chose Flecha.

    Yes Hugo did have to take a seat back next time round and take Pettachi but I think he would rather have that than having had to wait all the way till he 47th pick in the crucial 3rd round.

    Under the snake draft it seems the top seeds have first seat at the table all of the time.
    Under the current draft system, while it may not be the biggest consolation, at least the bottom seeds get to go first for those mid to higher level riders in the 30's positions.

    How do they have first seat all the time? They still have to pick last every second round, just like whoever is last round 1, has first bite of the cherry (just to clarify, a round being one lot of picks here, not "round" as in the quarters timmy has cut the draft into) every 2nd round.

    There are a lot of variables to these sorts of drafts, let me show you a table, using the CQ values (which are not going to be the points scoring of the game but it illustrates my point, AV with 2009 points) and who picked what and then inverting the last two rounds, look at the values and who ended up where in both (number=person who's position started 1st in Our Draft)

    Our DraftSnake Draft
    5347554672
    5135253043
    5088347521
    44831445504
    44671143616
    44094431312
    435915426714
    42631402715
    3728738605
    372516371410
    352213353511
    34296338113
    3330933057
    329110323616
    28261231499
    2419826008

    Can you really say which one is more "fairer"? Purely statistically, going by standard deviation from where people ended up in total CQ points in each draft compared to their starting position, Snake Draft turned out lower (4.32 to 5.33) . It's pointless anyway because as you can see, people have their own bias, DT would likely still pick the same riders because they're his favourites and a whole different chain of events could have occurred because Havetts may have picked Uran and then that would have forced Rya to pick someone else but those who are left he may have chosen someone else to Flecha. You have to look at the whole picture.

    As for "In the same way that having the 1st best rider is a major advantage over having the 16th and 17th best riders, is it not a small advantage to have the 33rd best rider over having the 48th and 49th best ones?"

    Well no because they don't just have 1 they have 32 as well and once you get past the the first round there's more than just 16 riders who can potentially score over 1000. Using your example and looking at the differences (using CQ coring again):
    #1 Valverde: 2494
    #16&17 Wiggins/Froome: 2101 (1322/779)
    Difference: 383pts

    #33 Miller: 823
    #48&49 Haussler/Pinot: 1135 (496/693)
    Difference: -312

    So going by your logic, Havetts not only gained points on mc_mountain with the first two picks but also with the third and fouth picks. So where the slight advantage? After the first few round in any draft or even first couple of picks, it comes down to people's personal choice on who will do well and their favouritism towards certain cyclists. You argue that one way is going to be better than the other, however eloquently put.

    I'm not trying to argue against this per se or that timmy was wrong choosing this sort of order to do the draft, I'm just trying to argue that its a pointless way of trying to make it balanced. You can try all sorts of ways to balance and thy to stem the disparity between those choosing first in the draft but it all either leads to impacting of the enjoyment of the game or weighting to harshly the other way. There is a reason why so many official and other fantasy drafts (nfl,nbl etc) still stick to the tried and true snake draft.

    (sorry I took so long to reply btw, I didn't see your response until midday and I wanted to write a response when I had more time and a chance to look at the spreadsheet)


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  • Tuart

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #99 on: February 15, 2012, 13:46 »
    I'm not actually complaining just trying to show an scenario... come on I got Gilbert and that is awesome... but in an scenario where there is no a total dominator of the points of the WT (e.g. Contador, Gilbert) and there is a lot of teams, i.e, more than 30, the persons who picks in the top 5 could see their chances a bit touched...


    So you have a problem with it because of a hypothetical situation where there is no top rider like Gilbert?  :-

    Yes but in the NBA the teams get to keep their best players ;)

    Chicago Bulls for example don't lose Michael Johnson next draft pick (so 1990's I know). They keep him and get last draft pick.

    You meanwhile, if you win, will not get to keep Gilbert so the game starts on a level playing field unlike NBA which is designed to level out a unlevel playing field

    I agree with the Hitch here, this isn't a keeper league so whoever is playing again next season, it would all have to be random.

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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #100 on: February 15, 2012, 18:29 »
    How do they have first seat all the time? They still have to pick last every second round, just like whoever is last round 1, has first bite of the cherry (just to clarify, a round being one lot of picks here, not "round" as in the quarters timmy has cut the draft into) every 2nd round.

    There are a lot of variables to these sorts of drafts, let me show you a table, using the CQ values (which are not going to be the points scoring of the game but it illustrates my point, AV with 2009 points) and who picked what and then inverting the last two rounds, look at the values and who ended up where in both (number=person who's position started 1st in Our Draft)

    Our DraftSnake Draft
    5347554672
    5135253043
    5088347521
    44831445504
    44671143616
    44094431312
    435915426714
    42631402715
    3728738605
    372516371410
    352213353511
    34296338113
    3330933057
    329110323616
    28261231499
    2419826008

    Can you really say which one is more "fairer"? Purely statistically, going by standard deviation from where people ended up in total CQ points in each draft compared to their starting position, Snake Draft turned out lower (4.32 to 5.33) . It's pointless anyway because as you can see, people have their own bias.

    As for "In the same way that having the 1st best rider is a major advantage over having the 16th and 17th best riders, is it not a small advantage to have the 33rd best rider over having the 48th and 49th best ones?"

    Well no because they don't just have 1 they have 32 as well and once you get past the the first round there's more than just 16 riders who can potentially score over 1000. Using your example and looking at the differences (using CQ coring again):
    #1 Valverde: 2494
    #16&17 Wiggins/Froome: 2101 (1322/779)
    Difference: 383pts

    #33 Miller: 823
    #48&49 Haussler/Pinot: 1135 (496/693)
    Difference: -312

    So going by your logic, Havetts not only gained points on mc_mountain with the first two picks but also with the third and fouth picks. So where the slight advantage? After the first few round in any draft or even first couple of picks, it comes down to people's personal choice on who will do well and their favouritism towards certain cyclists. You argue that one way is going to be better than the other, however eloquently put.




    While I appreciate the effort you put in into getting those cq score, and its a nice table to see, you are right its cq so its different values. And we arent picking last years points but this years.

    In the 2011 cq game there was a table of who would come top with their picks with 2009 scores. It was nothing like the the eventual table. Ingsve was nowhere near the top.

    Quote
    , DT would likely still pick the same riders because they're his favourites and a whole different chain of events could have occurred because Havetts may have picked Uran and then that would have forced Rya to pick someone else but those who are left he may have chosen someone else to Flecha. You have to look at the whole picture.
    Ryo may have got someone else but the point is that Hugo would not have got Uran. This way he did but in the snake draft he wouldnt.

    Its not about making it less fair for Ryo but about making it more fair for Hugo.

    Also while in cq the difference between the 33rd and 34rd picked rider might not be much here it very well could be. For 1 as you point out some choose risky or fan picks in the first round like Viviani Gesink (Wiggins and Froome who you mention as 33rd and 34th best picks in cq are picks 16 and 17 here).

    And while the riders in the 1st round maybe the safe picks the riders in the 20-40 range are those with the potential to break into that range. Like Sagan last year perhaps.

    It might not always be an advantage but sometimes it can. There were a few picks I wanted to have in the 3rd round which I could not, but I and others would have taken them up had we been given yet another advantage of being 1st in the 3rd round too.

    why not last in the 1st round go first in the 3rd?

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  • Dekker_Tifosi

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #101 on: February 15, 2012, 18:46 »
    btw I wouldn't define Gesink a risky fan pick.

    Last season even while injured for most of the season he still scored over 900 CQ points.
    His best season he scored 1700CQ points and even there he botched up some races. Gesink is a rider who will consistently score +1500 CQ points a season when fit...
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  • timmy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #102 on: February 15, 2012, 23:48 »
    gesink would have been my first pick also.

    oh well.
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  • Havetts

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #103 on: February 15, 2012, 23:56 »
    If it werent for me having 1st pick I would've gotten or tried to get Gesink too, the same reason I've got him for CQ :).
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  • Ryaguas

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #104 on: February 16, 2012, 00:07 »
    So you have a problem with it because of a hypothetical situation where there is no top rider like Gilbert?  :-

    Nop I'm Just trying to show some weak points in the system...

    I agree with the Hitch here, this isn't a keeper league so whoever is playing again next season, it would all have to be random.

    Yep I know that is not a keeper league but is a way to give an opportunity to those who finish in the last position and a way to present a challenge to those who finish in the first position...
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #105 on: February 16, 2012, 16:37 »
    Nop I'm Just trying to show some weak points in the system...

    Yep I know that is not a keeper league but is a way to give an opportunity to those who finish in the last position and a way to present a challenge to those who finish in the first position...

    But when where do new gamers go? I assume there will be loads more participants last year? Put at the end, put at the front, put randomly in?
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #106 on: February 16, 2012, 17:35 »
    But when where do new gamers go? I assume there will be loads more participants last year? Put at the end, put at the front, put randomly in?

    New random draft in the offseason. I would think there will need to be a limit on number per game so maybe timezone games if popular
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    Ryaguas

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #107 on: February 16, 2012, 19:01 »
    I was thinking that they could go in the middle but maybe those in the first places would complain about it mmmm yeah better to go with a radom order.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #108 on: February 17, 2012, 13:00 »
    Timmy ?

    If you have rider a for say AG team lets call him Phil

    And I have rider b lets call him Cadel

    Phil wins FW Cadel finishes 2nd

    Phil give AG the win points

    Cadel gives me 2nd plus Dom points

    Right ?

    Is it possible Cadel gives more points to me than AG ?
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  • timmy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #109 on: February 17, 2012, 13:06 »
    for fw lets say.

    1st phil : 200 points for first place
    2nd Cadel: 175 points for 2nd place + 25 points for dom points

    so in that case 200 each.

    Only the top placed rider of a team rewards team mates with dom points.

    so even if you had gva come 3rd as well it would be;

    phil;200
    evans;175 + 25
    gva; 150+25
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #110 on: February 17, 2012, 13:14 »
    for fw lets say.

    1st phil : 200 points for first place
    2nd Cadel: 175 points for 2nd place + 25 points for dom points

    so in that case 200 each.

    Only the top placed rider of a team rewards team mates with dom points.

    so even if you had gva come 3rd as well it would be;

    phil;200
    evans;175 + 25
    gva; 150+25

    Which would be great for team JSG

    But should not phil get a little extra because he won

    So in that case phil get equal to the different 1 - 2 25 points

    This would only occur if rider finishing lower get the same or more than the higher finishing rider ?

    So phil 225
    Cadel 200
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  • AG

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #111 on: February 17, 2012, 23:55 »
    Hey Im just happy to get Phil  ;D   
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  • timmy

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #112 on: February 18, 2012, 04:23 »
    let me think on this, i dont really wanna change the race scoring tho. Maybe a bigger gap between 1st and 2nd is necessary tho, in general.

    ----------------

    The poll is @ 6 vs 4 in regards to double picks next round (in favor of double).
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #113 on: February 18, 2012, 15:35 »
    let me think on this, i dont really wanna change the race scoring tho. Maybe a bigger gap between 1st and 2nd is necessary tho, in general.

    ----------------

    The poll is @ 6 vs 4 in regards to double picks next round (in favor of double).

    1st and 2nd isnt going to be a common result.

    the way the born to win riders will rack up points in the game I wouldnt have thought they need any extra points.
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    timmy

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    • Posts: 278
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    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #114 on: February 20, 2012, 23:25 »
    I tend to agree, i think we leave it as is.

    If there any problems etc, next year we can work it out.
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  • Jraama

    • Sunday Rider
    • Posts: 23
    • Liked: 0
    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #115 on: February 24, 2012, 03:40 »
    Is there going to be any provision in the rules for "free agency"? I could see having a "free agency" window for a few days after each grand tour. Perhaps limited to injured riders? I was mostly considering this in the event of a major/season ending injury, as opposed to a "might miss his next race" type injury.

    Just wondering.
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  • bicing

    • I'm a bot.
    • National Champion
    • Country: ht
    • Posts: 778
    • Liked: 147
    • Radioshack Nissan Trek owner
    • Awards: Funniest member 2012Best post 2012Best thread 2012
    Re: Cycling Manager Season
    « Reply #116 on: July 06, 2012, 17:46 »
    Prologue: 0
    Stage 1: 1st Sagan 60
    Stage 2: 2nd Greipel 50 + 6th Sagan 25
    Stage 3: 1st Sagan 60
    Stage 4: 1st Greipel 60 + 5th Sagan 30
    Stage 5: 1st Greipel 60
    Stage 6: 1st Sagan 60 + 2nd Greipel 50

    TOTAL: 455
  • ReplyReply
  • Cycman: Sagan Greipel Brajkovic Breschel CA.Sorensen Porte Wegmann Sutton Zubeldia Fedrigo Lastras Roux Selig Morabito Dumoulin T.Meyer
    CQ game-breakers: Boom Ciolek DeGendt Steegmans Bertagnolli Blythe Masciarelli Stetina Boeckmans Vaugrenard

     

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