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Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
« Reply #30 on: March 12, 2013, 13:18 »
my fascination is less with wether sagan is doping, but more how we interpret performance ourselves, if rider x puts in a certain performance we are suspicious, if rider y puts in a similar performance we are less suspicious, if rider x did not show that form in 2009 it says one thing, if rider y burst onto the scene all of a sudden in 2010 it shows another.

I generally think that is now much the rider is liked or not be you or the masses.

Like the rider and you think what a great ride

do not and look for reasons to explain the performance in a negative way.

I think it is that way for many
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    cj2002

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #31 on: March 12, 2013, 13:25 »
    For me that would mean that if performances reached such a level that scientists believed they were borderline not possible without some external boost, it would be up to the athlete to prove they were clean.

    That's an interesting point...

    But then, athletes are always training to beat whatever milestone is the next one along. Be it time or distance, audiences don't want to see athletes doing the same things, only slower. We want to see riders, runners or drivers go harder, faster and stronger. Acquarone clearly recognises this, and is putting mental climbs in all the Italian races.

    My point is, what might be regarded as borderline impossible 10 or 20 years ago is now possible because today's athletes are fitter and stronger and have access to better equipment and training. So while I think you're on to something, Capt., that measure still seems a little too subjective to satisfy the most cynical observers.

    my fascination is less with wether sagan is doping, but more how we interpret performance ourselves, if rider x puts in a certain performance we are suspicious, if rider y puts in a similar performance we are less suspicious, if rider x did not show that form in 2009 it says one thing, if rider y burst onto the scene all of a sudden in 2010 it shows another.

    Dim, I think this for me is why I try not to get involved in "is he, isn't he"-type debates. They run the risk of becoming less a serious discussion about a rider's performance/trajectory/potential etc., and become tainted by personal or partisan views dressed up as evidence.

    Sagan is clearly a phenomenal talent, the likes of which hasn't been seen since... well, I'd say the last cyclist to make such an impact was a certain Texan, but that doesn't exactly help my argument. He is entertaining, and what he does in races is a huge plus for the racing. So I hope he's clean, I really do.
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  • He shook his head sadly and told me that endemic drug use had compelled him to give up a promising career. "Even one small local race, prize was a salami, and I see doping!" - Tim Moore: Gironimo (Riding the Very Terrible 1914 Tour of Italy)

    L'arri

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #32 on: March 12, 2013, 13:28 »
    Sagan is clearly a phenomenal talent, the likes of which hasn't been seen since... well, I'd say the last cyclist to make such an impact was a certain Texan, but that doesn't exactly help my argument.

    What counts in Sagan's favour is that he has been consistently good since his early years. You saw him coming, you could say. I don't know what if anything he's on but I do think his name is on the nu-cycling boilerplate.
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    Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #33 on: March 12, 2013, 13:37 »
    Plus he's yet to actually beat a prime Boonen/Gilbert or even Cav on a Cav stage. I'd say his top5 most incredulous performances would be his two T-A wins, two wins at the start of the Tour last year and his Suisse climb.
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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #34 on: March 12, 2013, 15:24 »
    He has a lot of nice wins.  I like the two at Paris-Nice his rookie season with Liquigas.
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  • Sagan supporter.

    Blackbandit222

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #35 on: March 12, 2013, 15:45 »
    Jono L. said Clarke could make something out of nothing.
    Quote
    The other thing about clarkey is that he is very much like Gerrans in that he will always somehow manage to make something out of nothing. Really, really good oppurtunist and reads a race incredibly well

    Last yr in CA, Sagan flated w/ in 5km of finish & narrowly avoided a big crash w/in 2km and won both stages.

    In Suisse last yr, he unclipped in the sprint, was almost crashed into a barricade and  had some other sick finish were he came through like 10 people in final meters.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #36 on: March 12, 2013, 21:07 »
    Although I had the very same thought last week, 'it is suspicious that he wins sooo much', I haven't seen anything so far from Sagan that goes beyond passing suspicion. But, passing suspicion applies to all pros now. When power data from Sagan has been released, often the numbers are quite ordinary in terms of power:weight ratio. Part of the reason he wins so often seems to be knowing where to position himself in the final km, and final few hundred meters.

    That's also true for Cavendish, last year in the Tour without a good leadout train. Both Cav and Sagan, in a few instances I saw, won stages purely because they made almost perfect decisions about where to be, and when to apply some power, in the last few hundred meters.

    For example, regarding power output, Sagan's win on Stage 1 of the TdF over Cancellara: his numbers were rather ordinary. Weight of 160 lbs - 72.7 kg, in the last 2:21 of that stage he averaged 492 watts / 72.7 kg = 6.77 W/Kg (http://www.srm.de/index.php/us/srm-blog/tour-de-france/727). Of course, he had to make that initial jump to get onto Fabian's wheel, but no one else was in the right spot at the right time, and was strong enough to do so, disregarding Edvald Boasson Haagen who had to bridge up to Sagan and Fabian and had nothing left at the end. True, though, Sagan wasn't taken to his limit since he was drafting; Cancellara probably averaged something like 9.4 W/Kg, 770 watts for the same amount of time.

    For comparison, assuming Taylor Phinney is 175 lbs, 79.5 kg (probably between 173-180 - he says he lost 'like 3 kg' in the Giro last year), in a recent race he produced 568 watts / 79.5 kg = 7.14 W/Kg, for 2 minutes (https://twitter.com/taylorphinney/status/299965810267521025)

    Horner averaged 6.7-6.85 W/Kg (depending on weight, 138-140lbs) on the Sierra road climb on Stage 4 of the Tour of California in 2011, for almost 17 minutes, 7 times as long as the same power for Sagan (http://www.srm.de/index.php/fr/srm-blog/road/639-chris-horners-srm-daten-tour-of-california-2011).

    Again, data from Horner, on the Mur de Bretagne in the 2011 TdF he finished 8 seconds slower than the stage winner, holding 7.1 W/Kg for 4:16, 7.8 W/Kg for the hardest 2 minutes of that climb (http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/07/tour-de-france-stage-4-power-output.html).

    All this just puts at least one of Sagan's wins in perspective. If Sagan starts climbing for 30-45 minutes at 5.6 W/Kg or more, then I'll be more easily convinced he's doping. Otherwise, there's not much evidence so far.
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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #37 on: March 13, 2013, 00:30 »
    yeah I dont think there is much doubt that a lot of his success is due to a good head and great bike handling skills - and there aint no drugs in the world that can help with those.

    I am not Sagans biggest fan (mainly because I think he will end up beating Phil :fp )  but even I have to admit, he is an up and coming super star - and I dont actually believe thats due to drugs. 

    Maybe I am wrong, but in this case I am going to believe the fairytale (so far anyway)
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #38 on: March 13, 2013, 02:05 »
    Although I had the very same thought last week, 'it is suspicious that he wins sooo much', I haven't seen anything so far from Sagan that goes beyond passing suspicion. But, passing suspicion applies to all pros now. When power data from Sagan has been released, often the numbers are quite ordinary in terms of power:weight ratio. Part of the reason he wins so often seems to be knowing where to position himself in the final km, and final few hundred meters.

    That's also true for Cavendish, last year in the Tour without a good leadout train. Both Cav and Sagan, in a few instances I saw, won stages purely because they made almost perfect decisions about where to be, and when to apply some power, in the last few hundred meters.

    For example, regarding power output, Sagan's win on Stage 1 of the TdF over Cancellara: his numbers were rather ordinary. Weight of 160 lbs - 72.7 kg, in the last 2:21 of that stage he averaged 492 watts / 72.7 kg = 6.77 W/Kg (http://www.srm.de/index.php/us/srm-blog/tour-de-france/727). Of course, he had to make that initial jump to get onto Fabian's wheel, but no one else was in the right spot at the right time, and was strong enough to do so, disregarding Edvald Boasson Haagen who had to bridge up to Sagan and Fabian and had nothing left at the end. True, though, Sagan wasn't taken to his limit since he was drafting; Cancellara probably averaged something like 9.4 W/Kg, 770 watts for the same amount of time.

    For comparison, assuming Taylor Phinney is 175 lbs, 79.5 kg (probably between 173-180 - he says he lost 'like 3 kg' in the Giro last year), in a recent race he produced 568 watts / 79.5 kg = 7.14 W/Kg, for 2 minutes (https://twitter.com/taylorphinney/status/299965810267521025)

    Horner averaged 6.7-6.85 W/Kg (depending on weight, 138-140lbs) on the Sierra road climb on Stage 4 of the Tour of California in 2011, for almost 17 minutes, 7 times as long as the same power for Sagan (http://www.srm.de/index.php/fr/srm-blog/road/639-chris-horners-srm-daten-tour-of-california-2011).

    Again, data from Horner, on the Mur de Bretagne in the 2011 TdF he finished 8 seconds slower than the stage winner, holding 7.1 W/Kg for 4:16, 7.8 W/Kg for the hardest 2 minutes of that climb (http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/07/tour-de-france-stage-4-power-output.html).

    All this just puts at least one of Sagan's wins in perspective. If Sagan starts climbing for 30-45 minutes at 5.6 W/Kg or more, then I'll be more easily convinced he's doping. Otherwise, there's not much evidence so far.

    Do you have any 5 minute data where someone HAS done something impossible? It's not like a 30 minute climb where if you're Santiago Perez or Roberto Heras you're probably doping.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #39 on: March 13, 2013, 05:14 »
    Basically, I haven’t seen anyone do anything impossible since the bio-passport was introduced. Obviously some guys are still doping, but they can’t do it to the same level that they could before 2008, so people may be performing better than should be possible, but it’s hard to impossible to spot by looking at power numbers.

    The problem with the shorter durations is that they are limited by anaerobic capacity, which is just a matter of someone's fitness level and is not purely oxygen limited. You can compare what someone is doing to what others are doing to see how exceptional a performance is, but it's harder to say definitively doping is occurring. Plus, someone has to be taken to their limit to see if their limit is beyond normal due to doping, that doesn't happen very often and when it does, I think it's unlikely that they'd release their SRM, Powertap or Quark, direct measurement power data, if that happened.

    I don’t know if you’ve seen the writings on sportsscientists.com by Ross Tucker, but he firmly believes, based on the evidence, that any performance of greater than or equal to 6.1 W/Kg on a longer climb, >30 minutes, is indicative of doping – the reason being that the long climbs *are* oxygen limited, and if you make certain assumptions about VO2 max and efficiency, both of which can be tested and there are known normal ranges for, there is an upper limit of what should be possible.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #40 on: March 13, 2013, 05:15 »
    Right now, I think Sagan probably isn't manipulating his blood. If he's doing anything, it's probably testosterone, or hgh, since the bio-passport doesn't look at those levels and you'd just have to be sure not to have the drugs in your system at test time.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #41 on: March 13, 2013, 05:18 »
    I'm a huge fan of Chris Horner, but his doing 6.7-6.85 W/Kg for 16:58 in the Tour of California is a little suspicious. I follow power data fairly closely, but I haven't really seen anyone produce that power for that duration since then. Last year Wiggins and Froome (and Jani Brajkovic and others) were doing 6.4-6.5 W/Kg for about 15 minutes in the Tour, but for Wiggins and Froome that was in the 3rd week, on the Peyragudes climb, I believe, and they shouldn't be doing the best by that point anyway.

    Interestingly, I did read that Greg LeMond could do 6.7W/Kg at "threshold" - in that context, as I understand it, that would be his VO2 max threshold/aerobic capacity threshold (<20 minutes), not lactate threshold (>30 minutes), which would be 5.8-6.0 W/Kg.

    Also, interestingly: 15-20 minutes at a max effort is about the duration for the upper end of lactate threshold, and the low end of VO2 max - and it is said that the long climbs, 30-45+ minutes, are done at 88.75% to 85% of VO2 max,
    so if you take Horner's 6.7W/Kg * 0.8875 = 5.94 W/Kg; 6.7 * 0.85 = 5.695 W/Kg. Horner rode the 2010 Tourmalet at 5.6W/Kg for 52 minutes (http://www.sportsscientists.com/2010/07/power-from-tourmalet-6wkg-anyone.html), good enough to get him top 10 in the Tour, and Palomar Mountain in about 51 minutes in 2012 one week before the Tour at about 5.56-5.61 W/Kg (http://app.strava.com/activities/11643182#201613766).

    Earlier this week @ammattipyoraily on twitter estimated that Chris Froome was doing 5.93 W/Kg for 38:22 on the Prati di Tivo climb in Paris-Nice (I think it’s probably slightly lower due to drafting effects, which I’ve read is worth 10-15 watts on the long climbs - https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/310409452178247680)

    There’s a chart in the book, ‘Training and Racing with a Power Meter’ that gives known ranges for different durations for different levels of cyclists (https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc7/376315_870487194831_813656797_n.jpg), but I recently realized the numbers are inflated, at least for lactate threshold power, more than I initially thought. It says the functional threshold power of a World Class cyclist is 5.69-6.40 W/Kg, but Cycleops says World Tour is 5.0-5.5 W/Kg (http://www.cycleops.com/en/training/tools/calculators/watts.html)– I think Cycleops is right and the book is wrong.

    Looking at power files from Timmy Duggan (at 59kg) it’s possible to determine his FTP is 5.32 W/Kg (http://www.trainingpeaks.com/av/JYNCDBC3QHTS6SSU5CSEKPQNMA),
    Rory Sutherland (at 77.2kg) a FTP of 5.43 W/Kg (http://www.trainingpeaks.com/av/42WQYPJNFUKWPVZ4ASPQMTWUVQ),
    and Jens Voigt (at 77.2kg) is probably 5.4 W/Kg (http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/08/analysis/power-analysis-jens-voigts-winning-power-file-stage-4-of-the-usa-pro-challenge_235832).

    Anyway, none of those guys are really specialist climbers and it should be expected that their lactate threshold power/weight ratio is lower than climbers like Horner or Froome.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #42 on: March 13, 2013, 06:11 »
    Basically, I haven’t seen anyone do anything impossible since the bio-passport was introduced. Obviously some guys are still doping, but they can’t do it to the same level that they could before 2008, so people may be performing better than should be possible, but it’s hard to impossible to spot by looking at power numbers.

    The problem with the shorter durations is that they are limited by anaerobic capacity, which is just a matter of someone's fitness level and is not purely oxygen limited. You can compare what someone is doing to what others are doing to see how exceptional a performance is, but it's harder to say definitively doping is occurring. Plus, someone has to be taken to their limit to see if their limit is beyond normal due to doping, that doesn't happen very often and when it does, I think it's unlikely that they'd release their SRM, Powertap or Quark, direct measurement power data, if that happened.

    I don’t know if you’ve seen the writings on sportsscientists.com by Ross Tucker, but he firmly believes, based on the evidence, that any performance of greater than or equal to 6.1 W/Kg on a longer climb, >30 minutes, is indicative of doping – the reason being that the long climbs *are* oxygen limited, and if you make certain assumptions about VO2 max and efficiency, both of which can be tested and there are known normal ranges for, there is an upper limit of what should be possible.

    Point is that looking at someone's 5 min power (I'd say anything less than 10-15mins) is futile as there's no relevant historical or theoretical benchmark. You would need a number which you know is impossible and then see if guys like Bettini Rebellin Museeuw VDB Bartoli Jalabert violate it. I'm not sure this has been done yet (it's too hard a task).

    It's a lot easier in terms of threshold climbs we have both a theoretical maximum and a huge amount of historical data on which we can base our analysis. Though it's not applicable to Sagan who isn't a climber.

    re: The ABP, there is no evidence that it stops o2 vector doping (indeed Ashenden et al proved it to be worse than the EPO-test for detecting that substance), though considering all available information there are grounds to suggest it has limited the degree to which you can manipulate your blood (maybe fewer bags, smaller volumes)
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #43 on: March 13, 2013, 06:18 »
    You do not need to examine climbing data to conclude that Chris Horner is a doper.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #44 on: March 13, 2013, 06:37 »
    Point is that looking at someone's 5 min power (I'd say anything less than 10-15mins) is futile as there's no relevant historical or theoretical benchmark. You would need a number which you know is impossible and then see if guys like Bettini Rebellin Museeuw VDB Bartoli Jalabert violate it. I'm not sure this has been done yet (it's too hard a task).

    It's a lot easier in terms of threshold climbs we have both a theoretical maximum and a huge amount of historical data on which we can base our analysis. Though it's not applicable to Sagan who isn't a climber.

    I agree, that was my point in my first comment (“performance analysis will never constitute proof.”). There's not enough data, and even if you had quite a bit of data for a classics/sprinter like Sagan, it's still probably impossible to tell whether anything is 'not normal'. I went on to point out, at least in one of his wins, his power output was not out of the ordinary for a World Tour level rider, and commented that at least so far, I don't see him as being any more suspicious than any other World Tour rider, including Wiggins, Froome or Horner, who all could be doping, or who could all be clean - I think it's not possible to know for sure, right now.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #45 on: March 13, 2013, 06:43 »
    You do not need to examine climbing data to conclude that Chris Horner is a doper.

    I think he's suspicious, and acknowledge that he's doped in the past (according to Levi Leipheimer in the USADA evidence), but since 2008, I don't think it's possible to know for sure. Looking at the data, he isn't any better than any of the other top climbers - that doesn't mean anything, since most everyone could still be doping, or most everyone could now be clean, but based on the evidence I've seen, most riders today are clean, and there's the possibility that Horner's clean too - it's not possible to know with any certainty.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #46 on: March 13, 2013, 09:59 »
    So you have no confidence in anyone being a doper, unless they test positive?
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  • Slow Rider

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #47 on: March 13, 2013, 10:13 »
    So you have no confidence in anyone being a doper, unless they test positive?

    Isn't that how it should be? A positive test, statements from other riders or doctors, or perhaps performances that are so exceptional that they are impossible without doping (although that is, of course, a slippery slope)? I've said this before, and I agree with Rodman here, performance alone is never enough to brand someone a doper. It's enough to brand someone as suspicious, but not more than that. Because the problem is, whether in a doped or clean field, you will always have some riders stand out. Because of talent, training, hard work, equipment, or indeed because of doping.

    You need evidence before you can say with any confidence someone is a doper. Contador, for instance, is a doper in my book, or at least was before his suspension. Valverde, same. But Froome, Wiggins and Sagan, all we have to go on there are performances. Performances that may be suspect, but are by no means evidence.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #48 on: March 13, 2013, 10:16 »
    Why limit yourself to just looking at isolated instances of performance? You need to consider the entire sport that they exist in, critically analyse the individual's history, performance trends, where those performances sit against benchmarks.

    The whole idea that "oh he wins so you think he's a doper" is a shocking misrepresentation of the rational thought process which (at least some) people would go through to come to the conclusion.
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  • Slow Rider

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #49 on: March 13, 2013, 10:24 »
    Sure, agreed. That could provide great indicators of whether or not someone could be doping. But it's still not proof imo. There are always circumstances not related to doping that could explain sudden drops or rises in performance. If someone is deemed suspect due to performances and thus tested more often, that is perfectly fine. But the proof of someone being a doper should still come from a positive test, a paper trail, or a statement from another rider or doctor.

    And the "Oh he wins so you think he's a doper" does not apply for you of course, but it does apply to a lot of other people who frequent forums like this ;)
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #50 on: March 13, 2013, 10:33 »
    And the "Oh he wins so you think he's a doper" does not apply for you of course, but it does apply to a lot of other people who frequent forums like this ;)

    I promise I don't speak for them :D

    I'm not really speaking in terms of definitive proof beyond reasonable doubt just about the internal reasoning process we each use to frame our verdict. That I may be confident in my own mind that someone dopes does not mean that they 100% are a doper. We are not 100% certain that anyone is clean or dirty so in my mind the word "proof" just carries connotations which are not really representative of how we tackle the question.

    I'd like to be able to say (for example) that I think Menchov doped in 2009, without it being considered some baseless accusation.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #51 on: March 13, 2013, 10:41 »
    Isn't that how it should be? A positive test, statements from other riders or doctors, or perhaps performances that are so exceptional that they are impossible without doping (although that is, of course, a slippery slope)? I've said this before, and I agree with Rodman here, performance alone is never enough to brand someone a doper. It's enough to brand someone as suspicious, but not more than that. Because the problem is, whether in a doped or clean field, you will always have some riders stand out. Because of talent, training, hard work, equipment, or indeed because of doping.

    You need evidence before you can say with any confidence someone is a doper. Contador, for instance, is a doper in my book, or at least was before his suspension. Valverde, same. But Froome, Wiggins and Sagan, all we have to go on there are performances. Performances that may be suspect, but are by no means evidence.

    I guess the massive elephant in the room is that none of the riders coming forward or in the USADA report tested positive.

    So until testing gets better than the knowledge of the enablers there is not much to hang a hat on.

    But I agree to a certain point it is impossible to say Doper or for that matter Clean

    Suspect and degrees are all we have
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  • Slow Rider

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #52 on: March 13, 2013, 11:32 »

    I'd like to be able to say (for example) that I think Menchov doped in 2009, without it being considered some baseless accusation.

    Of course you can say that, and I won't accuse you of making baseless accusations. But at the same time, considering the lack of definitive proof, us naive people should be able to say that we believe Sagan (or, yes, even Froome) is clean without being attacked as gullible idiots. There is a big difference between stating you believe someone is doping, and saying someone is definitely doping and anyone who says otherwise is a complete idiot. I don't have a problem with the first group (amongst which many of the members of this forum are, luckily), but I do with the second.

    And you're right JSG, no evidence does not mean riders are clean. But human beings - yes, even cyclists - deserve a right of fair trial before found guilty. I personally dislike convicting people, even just in my own head, before I see evidence. I can understand why after years of scandals many cycling fans start thinkink the other way around, but in my opinion that is not the right way to approach this.
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  • benotti69

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #53 on: March 13, 2013, 16:34 »
    I guess the massive elephant in the room is that none of the riders coming forward or in the USADA report tested positive.

    So until testing gets better than the knowledge of the enablers there is not much to hang a hat on.

    But I agree to a certain point it is impossible to say Doper or for that matter Clean

    Suspect and degrees are all we have

    When you bear in mind that anti doping doesn't work and that the sport has not changed any of its major players, the exception being Bruyneel as all the docs named by USADA are no doubt still working just like Ferarri did after his ban years ago.

    So why believe that no one dopes? No reason except the races appear slower and preformances are not hitting the magic power numbers of EPO. But that proves nothing. The structure is a doping structure and a lot of people make money from it. No one in the sport had a problem doping with a few exceptions and they ended up out of the sport. The rest are going just stop doing what they know best in order to win? Nah they have toned it down, but under threat from UCI because the BP is not a positive/negative situation and it would cost teams to go to CAS. Better to hire blood specialists to beat the passport.


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  • "ahaha, ever had the feeling you been cheated?" JL SF Jan'78

    Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #54 on: March 13, 2013, 21:53 »
    So you have no confidence in anyone being a doper, unless they test positive?

    No, they don't have to test positive before I'll think someone is a doper, I just think it can't be spotted anymore through power data (due to the bio-passport), with what little power data is released. Guys can't go right up to 50% hematocrit like they could before. I didn't follow the power data that closely towards the end of the Tour de France last year, but if Wiggins and Froome were really doing an estimated 5.98W/Kg (possibly less due to drafting) for 45 minutes at the end of the 3rd week, that's pretty suspicious - I know a lot of people are convinced Wiggins is a cheater. But that's not out of the realm of possibility... It's not possible to know for sure, since people have been doping for 20+ years, for as long as power meters have existed almost; there's no baseline to compare to.

    Ross Tucker notes, if Horner is riding at 5.6 W/Kg, then his estimated VO2 max would be 66 ml/kg/min. Which is unremarkable, not the 80-90+ of 10 years ago. He's also relatively bad at time trials (just as Joaquim Rodriguez too, another light climber), and has absolutely no sprint, maxing out at something like 800 watts

    I think people are probably still using things like testosterone, since that's easier to obtain and conceal in testing than blood manipulation. No friggin clue how widespread, though.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #55 on: March 13, 2013, 22:16 »
    Even in the 2007 Tour, with Levi, Contador and Rasmussen doping, at the top of the Aubisque, the last 10k, a quick estimation (disregarding wind) showed Rasmussen averaged 5.8W/Kg. I based that estimation on TV footage I had recorded back then and there was a commercial before 10k remaining, so it wasn't possible to estimate for the full 16.4km of the climb. So, they very well could have been doing 6.5-6.7W/Kg for the first 6km (which, I was surprised to see, Horner leading out the front group on the early slopes of the climb before he peeled off) and only slowed down in the last 10km, which would mean the average for the full climb would have been 6.0+ W/Kg.

    EDIT: in 2010 on the Tourmalet where he averaged 5.6W/Kg over the full climb from his SRM, Horner said after the stage he was doing 450 watts at the bottom (7.0W/Kg) but at the top he was doing 330 watts (5.2 W/Kg) and was, "about ready to fall off my bike." There may have been a similar drop off in power for Rasmussen at the top of the Aubisque, but instead of doing 5.2 he was doing 5.8 W/Kg in 2007.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #56 on: March 14, 2013, 03:50 »
    Rasmussen is 6.25 (43mins) using Ferrari... arguably the best performance of the Tour since 50%.

    Nothing can be spotted with power data, you can't tell if anyone is clean or dirty (except Santiago Perez). It is actually pretty pointless to consider these numbers in the context of whether or not someone dopes.
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  • Rodman1_r2

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #57 on: March 14, 2013, 04:29 »



    Nothing can be spotted with power data, you can't tell if anyone is clean or dirty (except Santiago Perez). It is actually pretty pointless to consider these numbers in the context of whether or not someone dopes.


    I disagree. It's not absolute proof, but I'll be convinced a rider is doping if they do Ventoux or Alpe d'Huez next year at 6.2+ W/Kg, partly because I don't think that's possible anymore, due to the passport. Interesting that some teams, in the contracts for their riders, require that they use a power meter and provide all the data for every ride they do, and that Antoine Vayer just today called for power data and bio-passport data to be shared, if power data can't tell you anything about whether someone is doping...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #58 on: March 14, 2013, 05:14 »
    What I mean is that power data cannot ever be "absolute proof", if that were the case someone would be sanctioned if they break some mythical number. Of course I form my own opinion on what VAM does or doesn't add to suspicion but that is just a guide and that they are above/below that is hardly a reliable indicator of doping.

    If you set the number too high so that it is impossible for a current rider to attain it in the current enforcement environment then it is a useless number. Alberto Contador used blood transfusions in 2010, he wasn't picked up by the passport. If you look at his climbing, even Tourmalet, it is "no evidence of doping" (according to the experts).
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  • « Last Edit: March 14, 2013, 05:27 by The Arbiter »

    Dim

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    Re: Sagan... Is he, or isn't he...
    « Reply #59 on: April 19, 2013, 14:24 »
    The spanish rumour mill is in full force.. this worth reading (and translating)

    http://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=10551045&postID=3006667283087540858

    The long and the short of it is, Sagan decided to take a little trip to Madrid, in between races.. nothing wrong with that, although its  a hell of a trip to take between races in northern europe..

    But while there, he was seen apparently visiting Johann Bruyneel at his house.
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