collapse


Leadbelly

  • Monument Winner
  • *
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 5330
  • Liked: 4698
  • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
Betting Thread
« on: August 02, 2013, 19:05 »
Trying to cut back and be a bit more selective after a fairly barren TdF, but thought I might as well document my thoughts/selections/losses somewhere.

Can't believe that Phinney is only 4th favourite for the TT tomorrow in Poland. I've taken what I think are rather generous odds of 7 with PP. Wiggins is fav at 2.25, but despite Carlton's eulogizing of him the past couple of days, I think the few times I've seen BW he's been huffing and puffing - looks a long way away from his TT form of last year. Don't think any of the "climbs" tomorrow should have that much effect on the result - 4 percent type stuff with very short bits in the 6-7 range.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #1 on: August 17, 2013, 20:57 »
    There's been a real dearth of tempting odds all week on Paddy Power for the Eneco Tour. I was starting to think that their compiler had finally wised up, but there are some possibilities for tomorrow's stage - so I've gone a little crazy to make up for those non-betting days.

    Pozzato 101ew
    Ladagnous 101ew
    Nuyens 151ew
    Langeveld 151ew
    Roelandts 151ew

    Also the Vuelta GC odds have been up for a while. Anybody any thoughts on that?
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #2 on: August 18, 2013, 19:02 »
    Well they all showed their faces at times today, but no dice.

    Paddy Power have prices up for the USA Pro Challenge which is a nice surprise. Half expected them not to bother.

     *co time !

    Supposedly Froome and Porte aren't going to be going for the GC (working for JoDo who's available at 67 and possibly Siutsou), so that opens up the field a lot. Going with Acevedo at 251ew who seems to be the man in form this year. Not so hot at TTing, but stage 5 is short and not flat so hopefully he can limit his losses there and make hay on the stages that do suit him. Let's see some more crazy descending.

    Also Atapuma at 201ew.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #3 on: August 20, 2013, 03:45 »
    Some random Vuelta top10s...

    Konig @ 7
    LLS @ 18
    G Caruso @ 26
    Hermans @ 51
    DLG @ 51
    Petrov @ 81
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #4 on: August 24, 2013, 14:28 »
    Well I'm glad somebody managed to find some Vuelta picks because I'm really struggling to find anything of interest on PP. There's not even any decent H2H markets to fall back on. It's as if they don't want my money.  :D
  • ReplyReply

  • The Hitch

    • Winner 2012 Tour de France prediction game
    • Road Captain
    • Country: pl
    • Posts: 2473
    • Liked: 841
    • Awards: 2013 Annual Prediction Game2013 CQ Ranking Vuelta Game Post of the Year 2013Race Preview of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #5 on: August 24, 2013, 14:37 »
    Some random Vuelta top10s...

    Konig @ 7
    LLS @ 18
    G Caruso @ 26
    Hermans @ 51
    DLG @ 51
    Petrov @ 81

    LLS looks a good bet to me. Hes not a gc rider but hes top 10d vuelta before, might be given time in breakaways and hasnt ridden a gt this season unlike everyone else.
  • ReplyReply
  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #6 on: August 24, 2013, 14:39 »
    Yeh that was my thinking, plus he may not have signed a contract yet so may Froome it :D
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9204
    • Liked: 8858
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #7 on: August 24, 2013, 15:24 »
    Brajkovic Top 10 @11
    Haynow to win @15 + Top 3 @~4
    Pozzovivo Top 3 @25

    +small money on Kiser @~40 and Cardoso @~95 to win the mountain jersey
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #8 on: August 25, 2013, 02:49 »
    Impey @ 101, why is he at this and Goss @ 34?
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #9 on: August 25, 2013, 16:10 »
    In-play bet on Poels at 91ew with PP.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9204
    • Liked: 8858
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #10 on: August 25, 2013, 16:17 »
    very good bet I think, took him at 150 to win and @35 to podium this morning
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #11 on: August 26, 2013, 12:03 »
    5km at 5% is probably too much for him, but small change on Bole at 126ew.

    edit - with PP as per usual
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #12 on: August 26, 2013, 20:12 »
    Ratto at 101ew for tomorrow with PP.

    Post Merge: August 26, 2013, 20:17
    ...and I see LLS is now out to 34 for a top 10 (currently 25th 1' 19'' down) . Is that drop a genuine reflection of what we've seen from him in the first few stages? Well up in the stage today, but lost 30 odd secs yesterday.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9204
    • Liked: 8858
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #13 on: August 26, 2013, 20:41 »
    yeh, I like Ratto as well for tomorrow, especially Top 3
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #14 on: August 27, 2013, 02:33 »
    I go Purito @ 51, if hell freezes over and someone breaks it up on Ezaro then he is always the 2nd best finisher of the GC guys.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #15 on: August 28, 2013, 03:32 »
    Well, I got the finish right just picked the wrong one :(

    Anyway, the mighty Daniel Schorn will win today @ 101.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #16 on: August 29, 2013, 09:07 »
    Well according to FDJ good old Geoff Soupe has been suffering from inflammation of the feet, but should recover quickly (today would be nice). Whether he'll be leading out Roux or having a go himself I don't know, but I can't really see Roux doing much on flat finishes. So allez Geoff!

    Soupe 126ew with PP
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #17 on: August 29, 2013, 21:36 »
    Well Soupe's feet were better, but poor positioning and not much team support (they all seemed to be hanging at the rear of the peloton) lead to 17th place.

    Few top 10 bets with PP

    Ten Dam 10
    CAS 19
    Lulu 26

  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #18 on: August 30, 2013, 17:21 »
    Stage 8

    Kreuziger 101ew
    Arroyo 151ew

    Let's hope Arroyo is feeling okay after his spill the other day.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9204
    • Liked: 8858
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #19 on: August 30, 2013, 17:25 »
    yeah, looks like it is better not to touch odds below 100 in this vuelta...

    Roche, Horner, Morkov, Stybar all easily above 100, not sure about Moreno, but 50+ at least.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #20 on: August 31, 2013, 05:53 »
    HAIMAR @ 251
    Huzarski @ 301
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #21 on: August 31, 2013, 20:54 »
    De Gendt 401ew with PP. I was slagging him off in the shoutbox the other day, but as good as chance as any from a break.

    What's the thinking on Betancur? 101 is very tempting, even if we know why he's at those odds. Chances are we'll just get one day at these big prices where he goes for it, and then ofc after that the odds will shoot back down. Any thoughts?

    Post Merge: August 31, 2013, 21:01
    Ahhhhh I can't resist - Betancur 101ew  :D (we want better smileys! )
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9204
    • Liked: 8858
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #22 on: August 31, 2013, 21:07 »
    puh, I doubt a break has a chance to make it to be honest. Odds around ~4 for Purito look tempting - sure, Moreno has looked good so far, but usually Purito wins more or less all of these finishes
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #23 on: September 01, 2013, 01:12 »
    Tony G @ 34
    Ponzi @ 81
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #24 on: September 01, 2013, 17:41 »
    Stage 10

    Konig 51ew


    Post Merge: September 01, 2013, 22:51
    and a single on Eijssen at 251. Been making a bit more of a mark this year - some quite decent results recently. After stage 8 Ledanois was talking up his and Nerz's (who's also been looking good) chances of getting in breaks.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: September 01, 2013, 22:51 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #25 on: September 02, 2013, 20:04 »
    TT prices up early on PP

    Valverde 501ew and lots of other big ew shouts available if we assume the top two spots will be Tony and Canc.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #26 on: September 03, 2013, 08:00 »
    LLS @ 201
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #27 on: September 04, 2013, 19:24 »
    Little punt on Greg Henderson at 201ew for the sprint tomorrow.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #28 on: September 05, 2013, 07:40 »
    Going to pull out some roughies for the late attack.

    Martin @ 151
    LLS @ 151
    Barta @ 251
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: September 05, 2013, 08:38 by Arb »

    Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5330
    • Liked: 4698
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #29 on: September 07, 2013, 09:28 »
    Not sure what day of these three will be best for a breakaway, but a couple of singles just out of interest.

    Cataldo 101
    Bagot 101

    Post Merge: September 07, 2013, 09:34
    and Uran at 67
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top