collapse


Wheelie1977

  • Domestic Rider
  • Country: 00
  • Posts: 56
  • Liked: 20
  • Peter Sagan is ainm dom
    • Wheelietips
Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #120 on: January 07, 2014, 09:53 »
Contador finally came into 13 and is now at tens...

Uran at the JVDB sort of level seems about right imo. Bet365 are usually very accurate I rarely have win/place success there. The long straight flat ITT will be very hard on Uran. Even a form Andy beats him there. Valverde and a 2013 Contador would put a couple of minutes into him so it means they'd have to get dropped on every big stage and we've only seen ability in that sort of vicinity from Uran on one single day. The biggest plus on Uran is that he is going to a new team and still hasn't tried in that many GTs so may bring something more to the table. I prefer Mollema @ 151, Gesink (don't laugh) and Henao @ 201, Kangert @ 601! (365) in terms of podium value. Overall though I think the podium is pretty well locked out by Froome/Nibali/Valverde/Contador, but sh*t can happen so it's not a bad move to pick big odds outsiders for the place if there are only 4, max 5 contenders clearly ahead.

But hey, you can also back someone in January and blow your cash by June when they do their collarbone. I learned that the hard way in 2010 when I backed Pellizotti a couple of weeks out from the Giro only for the UCI to come to the party on the eve of the race. I wouldn't really recommend betting long range futures unless there is a serious overvaluation or you have cornered the market with high odds on multiple contenders. For 2012 I got Evans/Wiggins/Froome/Menchov at stupid odds over 6 months out, but that was a play on Contador's suspension. For 2013 Froome was always the man to beat for me but I waited and waited just to be sure, and I think around March I got him unchanged all year @ 3.75 and used that position to bring in Quintana, Rodriguez and Porte (ok, I think I got on Porte as soon as he smoked Eze) which made me feel very comfortable except I was missing Contador who was always too short to back. 2014 there isn't any value (beyond wild speculations) outside of the Contador play but that can now be used to bring value to say Valverde @ 34 which is looking very attractive. If you had both of those and considered the win portion of the bets a write off you're still getting I think 70% return on just one of them making the podium.

The real trick is to wait and see how the season unfolds and act on new information before the books have time to adjust. If you see career best form, injury, doping rumours etc act immediately if you think it's significant enough. Make your picks when you're absolutely certain that they will not drift any higher. So yeh, I think you have to be a bit lucky with the markets and news to do well months out. Without that I'd only really look at micro bets at large odds more as a novelty than anything else, I do this with Betfair but sadly they only really put their markets up to a month out.

BTW 365 have some randoms matchups listed, stupid margins though, wouldn't touch them but Scarponi and Porte dogs against Evans and Purito is interesting.

Paddy usually have Australian Nationals markets, Durbo apparently a bit sick so let's see if we get a gift...

TBH i'm never remotely interested in betting on the Grand Tours from a long way out. I got Froome at massive e/w odds in 2012 after seeing him in the Dauphine and again when he lost a minute on Stage 1. I had picked Uran as a Giro podium last year also. It's not something I do often though. Once I get prices for the Classics I'm all over them. Sagan was 8/1 for Flanders in February. Cancellara was half that, played out fantastically well on race day. The major disappointment was Pozzato in any of the opening Monuments where I had what I felt were massive overs.




  • ReplyReply
  • I'm a doping agnostic. We're everywhere.
    Find me @wheelie1977 and check out my race previews at
    www.wheeliebets.com

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #121 on: January 07, 2014, 10:01 »
    Ha I had the same, Sagan and Pozzato.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #122 on: January 12, 2014, 05:25 »
    Landed the quartet. Pity CM couldn't hold on.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #123 on: January 12, 2014, 10:18 »
    The word on the street was right.  :P

    Good start to the season for me too - all thanks to Arbs.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #124 on: January 13, 2014, 06:42 »
    Wonder what the chances are of Paddy putting Goss favourite for TDU.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9209
    • Liked: 8869
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #125 on: January 13, 2014, 07:52 »
    unlikely, even Paddy knows that Greipel is quicker than him ;)

    Ladbrokes already has odds for the gc btw. There was some "hype" on twitter about Javier Moreno @25 (now @17), but I can't really see the point. He tends to peak for TDU but generally (regarding talent & qualities) there are propably 20 riders which are better than him. @25 propably is too big for someone who was 2nd last year though, but I doubt he will win
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Wheelie1977

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 56
    • Liked: 20
    • Peter Sagan is ainm dom
      • Wheelietips
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #126 on: January 14, 2014, 10:21 »
    Folks, you might take a read of my blog Wheelietips and rate it (as honestly as you can!) With it in mind, I'm taking subs for 2014 and all Veloroom registered users are free for January and February previews and analysis (with no obligation to continue thereafter) Bear in mind that will take account of some ante-post advice for the bigger races.

    I have access to some of the major bookmakers in Gibraltar and offshore so hope to get early prices and word on almost all the World Tour races. I dont' always have long priced winners, in fact a change in strategy last year backing large against odds on match bets paid a substantial profit but I should have best prices with the various recommended bookmakers available.

    As well as analysis we've a Whatsapp and Viber group that has word on the street updates and you might have seen it on Twitter last year, the Wheeliebets Tipster Competition in the Grand Tours with betting voucher prizes - we're hoping to build on that this year.

    Anyway, feel free to enquire more - the Wheelietips site is free but previews don't go up until the race is off and running so members get the advice the night/morning before.

  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9209
    • Liked: 8869
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #127 on: January 14, 2014, 11:47 »
    thank, I will give it a try

    we are running a completely different approach though, basically because those who take early prices (and even advertise them) destroy the market, but it's your right of course, and I am interested to see how you are doing
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #128 on: January 14, 2014, 12:00 »
    I'm always late to the H2H party so tend to only be left with the dogs (where market may have been pushed too far)... I guess that's why I barely break even outside of TTTs.
  • ReplyReply

  • Wheelie1977

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 56
    • Liked: 20
    • Peter Sagan is ainm dom
      • Wheelietips
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #129 on: January 14, 2014, 12:17 »
    thank, I will give it a try

    we are running a completely different approach though, basically because those who take early prices (and even advertise them) destroy the market, but it's your right of course, and I am interested to see how you are doing

    in fairness, the market isn't wholly liquid in the first place and anyone taking a larger price can't get their stake on. Add in the risk element and it doesn't pay it's way IMO. Head to Heads really did provide solid results, solid profit and the larger stake players preferred it with a proper offshore bookmaker who didn't limit.

    send me an email and i'll add anyone who wants to.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #130 on: January 15, 2014, 17:01 »
    PP have put more odds up (and changed a few while they were at it).

    I'll have a bit of Dennis at 26ew

    Post Merge: January 15, 2014, 19:26
    Bet365 have their odds up. They seem to be offering ew terms for it currently of 1/3 for 1-2-3-4 which seems quite generous - probably just an error, but might be worth having a bet just in case.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: January 15, 2014, 19:26 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #131 on: January 16, 2014, 01:49 »
    I wanted to get on Gerrans but never got around to it, but there were also a couple of others who I was hoping would drift... Ok can still find him at 4...

    Visconti @ 51
    BOUET @ 81
    and why the heck not maybe "Ewans" @ 301 wins 4 stages.


  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #132 on: January 16, 2014, 11:47 »
    Yeah, why not. Ewan at 301ew for me too. If he's still in the GC mix when they get to stage 5 he'll surely try and hang on going up Willunga. The short length of all the stages should suit him too.

    Post Merge: January 16, 2014, 14:47
    Also I'll take advantage of Bet365's favourable ew terms with Geschke 151ew. I guess he's Giant's man for the GC and tougher stages.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: January 16, 2014, 14:47 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #133 on: January 16, 2014, 14:51 »
    Yeh I'm eying him for a pretty good race. If he's in shape could top5 depending on how many climbers show up, or top5 a couple of the sprints.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #134 on: January 17, 2014, 16:57 »
    Hmmmmmm Ewan available at 151 for stage 1 with PP.  :D

    I'm on that each way.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #135 on: January 18, 2014, 05:48 »
    Oh you're flipping serious?

    I was checking pretty often waiting for that :(

    You better have gone big :D
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #136 on: January 18, 2014, 10:55 »
    Yeah I figured you'd be a bit miffed to have missed out on it.  :(

    Very slightly larger stake, but nothing crazy.

    Of course it could all be academic if the fires continue and the stage is cancelled. I'm sure that's what PP are hoping will happen, because I'm sure I'm not the only one on it.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #137 on: January 18, 2014, 22:33 »
    Yeh I would have bet the same amount as if he were @ 10. About the right price now.

    I still have my eye on a couple but will wait for the other markets to open up.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #138 on: January 19, 2014, 06:27 »
    I'm expecting a top3 from him tonight in which case he will be crunched even more. Not overly confident he will survive the climb though (if he does it's his to lose).

    Got on Greipel before he went odds on... might put a little on Renshaw/Sutton EW, they are always a good shout in a crit.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #139 on: January 19, 2014, 06:38 »
    and Lobato @ 101, because he appeared in my twitter feed.
  • ReplyReply

  • Archieboy

    • Road Captain
    • Country: england
    • Posts: 1115
    • Liked: 258
    • Awards: 2014 & 2015 Official Prediction Game ChampReigning TDF Prediction Champ
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #140 on: January 19, 2014, 12:47 »
    A must be on for Hammers fans today,
    Kempton 4.00 : HOOF IT 2/1
    Describes the crap football we are suffering this season....
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #141 on: January 19, 2014, 13:19 »
    Whatever, they both got up in their H2Hs, I guess CJ wasn't even close to 3rd?

    Stage 1 odds ought to htfu.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #142 on: January 20, 2014, 21:09 »
    How did the horse get on Archie?

    One final GC bet for TDU - Alaphilippe 251ew with PP

    Can't see him pulling it off, but like Ewan's GC bet the price is very tempting.
  • ReplyReply

  • Wheelie1977

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 56
    • Liked: 20
    • Peter Sagan is ainm dom
      • Wheelietips
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #143 on: January 20, 2014, 21:19 »
    Hmmmmmm Ewan available at 151 for stage 1 with PP.  :D

    I'm on that each way.

    my regret I didn't go more than I did but I got it too - and so did my wife
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #144 on: January 21, 2014, 09:18 »
    lol Paddy think Stirling is an MTF.
  • ReplyReply

  • Wheelie1977

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 56
    • Liked: 20
    • Peter Sagan is ainm dom
      • Wheelietips
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #145 on: January 21, 2014, 11:39 »
    they've got it very wrong again leaving Matthews out there in double digits. and no Greipel (although his form here isn't fantastic)
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2292
    • Liked: 518
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #146 on: January 21, 2014, 15:20 »
    Shame no Greipel as I wouldn't have minded a crack at him at 51 or w/e he would have been. Bet365 will have him around 10-15 I guess. I struggle to see Gerrans losing but have a bit of interest in the sprinters too e.g. Von Hoff @ 67 who is climbing better than ever and Ewan @ 51 who surely can't have a worse day.

    Sporting have some interesting odds such as Felline 41/11 and Roux 151/34, Alaphilippe 81/21.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #147 on: January 21, 2014, 18:32 »
    I was tempted to get back on the hype train at 51 with Ewan too........ and I've caved into it. Looks a tough day, but we'll see what happens.

    Going with Rojas 41ew with PP also. Small stakes sort of day.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9209
    • Liked: 8869
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #148 on: January 22, 2014, 23:13 »
    I think Silin to beat Vorganov @~2,40 with pinnacle (@2,30 bet365) looks like a good bet for stage 3. Both have about similar abilities (climbing wise) and while Silin finished on a solid 11th place in Stirling Vorganov was already far at the back with ~3k to go. He still finished 38th but without the crash taking out loads of riders in between he would propably have been even further behind
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 5333
    • Liked: 4707
    • Awards: KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #149 on: January 23, 2014, 19:08 »
    Nice one search.

    Bet365 have a top 3 market for once.

    Von Hoff 6.5
    Van Poppel 12
    Matthews 17 (! - but maybe they'll go with Goss or try Gerrans and grab some bonifications for the GC)
  • ReplyReply

  •  

    Recent Posts

    Re: [1.1] Winston Salem Cycling Classic by Leadbelly
    [Today at 05:21]


    Re: Hammer Sportzone Limburg by t-72
    [May 29, 2017, 21:02]


    Re: Tour of Belgium by Echoes
    [May 29, 2017, 20:17]


    Re: The Academy of Cycling by LukasCPH
    [May 29, 2017, 19:00]


    Re: Man Down - Injury Reports 2017 by LukasCPH
    [May 29, 2017, 18:52]


    Re: The Academy of Cycling by Leadbelly
    [May 29, 2017, 18:46]



    Top
    Back to top