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Arb

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #150 on: January 24, 2014, 00:08 »
That is a solid price on Matthews. I think GreenEdge will try and have a crack in the wind, making it too hard for Goss :P

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  • Tuart

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #151 on: January 24, 2014, 01:57 »
    Good grief, if a pre-race injured & during-race injured Matthews gets picked before Harley in a flat sprint then that doesn't look good for a lot of CQ Managers' season ahead.
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #152 on: January 24, 2014, 15:49 »
    TDU Stage 5

    Haas 51ew - wouldn't have had down as a contender in a million years, but he seems a man in inordinately good form

    Shame no TT odds for San Luis from PP or 365.
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  • Wheelie1977

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #153 on: January 24, 2014, 17:24 »
    TDU Stage 5

    Haas 51ew - wouldn't have had down as a contender in a million years, but he seems a man in inordinately good form

    Shame no TT odds for San Luis from PP or 365.

    agreed

    it's all about Diego tonight though. Gerrans 2nd and Evans most likely to be third. Porte will crank it up but be caught close to the top byt the sprinting trio. Haas will be 5th I'd say
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #154 on: January 24, 2014, 17:36 »
    I am pretty sure Ulissi will be dropped again to be honest
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #155 on: January 24, 2014, 23:09 »
    took a small bet on Bennett to beat Elissande @~3,4 with pinnacle. Elissande was 12th last year but generally this climb is not steep enough for him and he was in the fight for gc back then. I am pretty sure Bennett will finish somewhere in the top ~20, could be enough to beat Kenny.

    Gesink Top 3 @4,25 with sbobet is decent as well if it comes to a small sprint in the end
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #156 on: January 25, 2014, 00:04 »
    I'll play the same but with Haig > Bakelants :D

    It could happen that these fringe GC riders attack the first loop.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #157 on: January 25, 2014, 00:15 »
    H2H spam today. Small go on Evans @ 5.680 too, bit overpriced there.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #158 on: January 25, 2014, 04:42 »
    Neither Bennett or Kenny anywhere close... still waiting for their time. Haig only missed out by 10s :( Rest went well though.

    76.    114    Kenny ELISSONDE (FDJ)       +6:39       
    77.    171    George BENNETT (CAN)       +6:39    

    asfdsgafdsafasgasdfasdsa
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #159 on: January 25, 2014, 07:00 »
    :fp
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #160 on: January 25, 2014, 13:30 »
    Stage 6

    Ewan 151ew with PP - same odds as the first stage ( :P), but this is after being nowhere all week and a heavy tumble. It's a crit though so hopefully he'll be contesting things at the pointy end.

    Post Merge: January 25, 2014, 13:46
    ....and I'll try some H2H action.

    Evans v Gerrans 2.75 with PP and hope they just coast over the line (GC already settled after intermediates?), and what better place to keep an eye on Cadel than right behind him (did the same with Valverde in 2012). Hopefully Ulissi will just take it easy too.

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  • « Last Edit: January 25, 2014, 13:46 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #161 on: January 25, 2014, 14:18 »
    Yeh ok. No one is beating Greipel/Kittel but Ewan can still get third.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #162 on: February 02, 2014, 17:21 »
    PP have their odds up for the Dubai TT

    Let's go for three with some miles in their legs already.

    Sagan 101ew
    Kittel 376ew
    Cavendish 376ew

    Could've done with being a bit more technical, but it's only 10km long so they shouldn't be too far off the top all things being equal.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #163 on: February 03, 2014, 07:31 »
    I think it's way too long and straight for the sprinters. Nibali and Valverde look ok but only paying top2 for place so not sure if I will bother.

    Meh bugger it why not, Valverde's good early season prologues tend to only come in Spain so he's probably just here on holiday. Don't think Nibali has had enough time to improve either. But still, first up is the only chance you get of the Martin/Cancellara duopoly being toppled.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #164 on: February 03, 2014, 19:27 »
    Yeah you're probably right - certainly about Cav and Kittel, but I still think Sagan has a chance.

    Bet365 have a top 3 market now for the first stage.  :(

    The early bird in this case doesn't get the worm. Nvm I'll take Canc for stage 1 (outright win) at 11 with them.



    Post Merge: February 03, 2014, 20:29
    Giro odds up (thanks Madrazo  :P).

    Ulissi and Kiserlovski are tempting, but just going with Arredondo 151ew for the time being, though with such a strong field maybe the top 10 markets might be the ones to go for when they're opened in a few months time.
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  • « Last Edit: February 03, 2014, 20:29 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #165 on: February 04, 2014, 00:09 »
    Yeh Sagan =/= Sprinter and you can't ignore his 2010 P-N effort.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #166 on: February 04, 2014, 20:56 »
    Kittel is in Dubai for a week already though while most others arrived yesterday, and he was a very good time trialist in his junior days. Hasn't showed anything since he joined Argos, but regarding his pure abilities I don't think he is worse than Sagan in a flat, non-technical 10k timetrial. No e/w available with bet365, but otherwise 600-1 could be worth a try

    and Chernetskiy to beat Ion @~2,4 with pinnacle is a must bet I think, Izagirre's good results were all in twisty and/or hilly time trials, no way he will be anywhere near the front tommorow, Chernetskiy is way better suited to this course. No idea about shape and/or ambitions though, but regarding the abilities I think the odds should be the other way around.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #167 on: February 05, 2014, 14:01 »
    and Chernetskiy to beat Ion @~2,4 with pinnacle is a must bet I think, Izagirre's good results were all in twisty and/or hilly time trials, no way he will be anywhere near the front tommorow, Chernetskiy is way better suited to this course. No idea about shape and/or ambitions though, but regarding the abilities I think the odds should be the other way around.

    15. Chernetskiy +0:43
    29. Izagirre +0:50

    :cool

    Kittel not too bad either, although still out of contention for top 3 already
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #168 on: February 06, 2014, 15:01 »
    Nice reasoning search.

    Yeah the TT went a bit better than I expected - no wins for me, but no bloodbath either.  :P

    Can't see tomorrow being that selective - the climbs look like false flat mainly on mapmyride (can that be trusted in Dubai?) with small sections of very slightly steeper stuff - dunno if the wind will be a problem. Just in case it is tougher than expected, I'll try jack-of-all-trades Hansen at 301ew with PP - seems to have his team working all out for him.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #169 on: February 06, 2014, 17:35 »
    Nice reasoning search.

    Yeah the TT went a bit better than I expected - no wins for me, but no bloodbath either.  :P

    Can't see tomorrow being that selective - the climbs look like false flat mainly on mapmyride (can that be trusted in Dubai?) with small sections of very slightly steeper stuff - dunno if the wind will be a problem. Just in case it is tougher than expected, I'll try jack-of-all-trades Hansen at 301ew with PP - seems to have his team working all out for him.

    there are 9 to 7 % sections Phinney be ok Kittel not is the word if that helps
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #170 on: February 06, 2014, 18:33 »
    there are 9 to 7 % sections Phinney be ok Kittel not is the word if that helps

    Well it kinda tallies with mapmyride - it had most of the last climb at 2-3% with a section of ~400m at ~7%. It might drop Guardini, but I'm not sure about others. Guess we'll know for sure when we see it tomorrow - but by then it will be too late.  :P

    Plus very little wind tomorrow supposedly.

    Hopefully some teams try something.

    Post Merge: February 06, 2014, 18:53
    PP have their Giro prices up now also and I can't resist Niemiec at 301ew. So much for no more GC bets because of the strong field.

    Sixth last year and from what I've been reading the Lampre GC leadership at the Giro isn't cut and dry - either Horner is there to mentor the riders (according to Cooke) or it will be decided on the road (according to Copeland). Either way I reckon he should be closer to 100.
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  • « Last Edit: February 06, 2014, 18:54 by Leadbelly »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #171 on: February 06, 2014, 20:02 »
    I can't resist Niemiec at 301ew. So much for no more GC bets because of the strong field.

    Sixth last year and from what I've been reading the Lampre GC leadership at the Giro isn't cut and dry

    6th while wasting something like ~1 1/2 minutes or so waiting for Scarponi, otherwise he had finished 4th. E/W bet Sounds good
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #172 on: February 06, 2014, 22:02 »
    6th while wasting something like ~1 1/2 minutes or so waiting for Scarponi, otherwise he had finished 4th. E/W bet Sounds good

    Way easier field last year though.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #173 on: February 07, 2014, 00:55 »
    is it? Last year we had Nibali and Betancur in front of him + Wiggins / Hesjedal who did not deliver, this year we have Porte, Quintana and Purito instead. All three are relatively certain to fight for a podum of course, but apart from them there is not that much diffenrece, and remember, odds on Wiggins to win the Giro were something like ~even last year for example
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #174 on: February 07, 2014, 10:44 »
    Cav in-play at 18 with Bet365.

    Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 20:46
    That was rather tiresome - both (Cav and Hansen) made the final group, but didn't contest the sprint.

    Bet365 finally have their Qatar odds up.

    Couple of GC picks.

    Kristoff 51ew
    Ladagnous 151ew

    Kristoff was at 101 on Betvictor! Still think he's too long at 51. Good chance of picking up bonus seconds, decent short tt and he seems to have the classics brain to avoid splits if the winds cause echelons etc. Negative side is that it's his first race of the season.

    Think the Giro field this year is a bit stronger, but not massively. You could probably play a little game and work out the 2014 equivalent of the 2013 rider.

    Nibali = Quintana?
    Wiggins = Porte?
    Hesjedal = Horner?

    Maybe Purito would be the extra addition that makes it a little bit spicier.

    Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 20:59
    Godammit - PP put their odds up minutes after I made my bets and Kristoff is available there at 81.  :D

    Taken Bennati from them though at 101ew - similar to Kristoff's reasons except maybe not as quick anymore for a full blown sprint, but good enough from a reduced group.

    Post Merge: February 08, 2014, 21:36
    Even Demare at 51ew is looking tempting too.
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  • « Last Edit: February 08, 2014, 21:36 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #175 on: February 09, 2014, 01:06 »
    is it? Last year we had Nibali and Betancur in front of him + Wiggins / Hesjedal who did not deliver, this year we have Porte, Quintana and Purito instead. All three are relatively certain to fight for a podum of course, but apart from them there is not that much diffenrece, and remember, odds on Wiggins to win the Giro were something like ~even last year for example

    Right but didn't he also gain like 30 on Galibier purely because no one gave a crap about him.

    Here is how I would fit the 2014 field into the 2014 gc

    Quintana
    Richie Porte
    Joaquim Rodriguez
    1 Nibali
    Horner if anywhere near his 2013 level
    Astana Scarponi
    2  Rigoberto Uran - 2014 Uran (-?)
    Ivan Basso feeling something special in the air
    3 Cadel Evans
    4 Michelle Scarponi
    5 Carlos Betancur
    Cadel Evans a year older
    6 Przemyslaw Niemiec
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #176 on: February 09, 2014, 20:36 »
    Qatar Stage 2

    Breschel v GVA 2.5 with Bet365

    Breschel caught up in today's crash, but otherwise would have been up there. Seems more of a 50/50 chance with even a slight lean towards Matti.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #177 on: February 10, 2014, 19:52 »
    Qatar Stage 3 TT

    Elmiger v Le Bon 2.0
    Boonen v Stannard 2.2

    Both with Bet365

    Le Bon crashed today - nothing that serious, but enough to have his arm in a sling this evening. Elmiger (who came off also, but no lasting damage afaiw) isn't that shabby in a TT either - team say he "can really make use of the time trial as a way to test himself against strong competition".

    Boonen seems to be very much in form. Good TT in San Luis. Should be closer to a coin toss with a slight lean to Boonen.


    Post Merge: February 10, 2014, 20:51
    Bennati v Mouris 3.0

    The odds on this one have swapped around which worries me a bit, but Mouris was another crash victim today - he might still go for it tomorrow whereas Benna might take it easier, but 3.0 seems more than fair if he's feeling a inconvenienced by any bruising etc.
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  • « Last Edit: February 10, 2014, 20:51 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #178 on: February 11, 2014, 16:16 »
    One winner, one loser, one void.

    Qatar Stage 4

    These winds surely can't last all week, but who knows - maybe 20 km/h NW winds forecast tomorrow. Guarnieri was unlucky in both the first and second stages - especially yesterday when he made the front group, but got a puncture with 4km to go and missed out on the reduced sprint. I'll try him at 401ew with PP.

    Post Merge: February 11, 2014, 19:23
    ...and one H2H.

    Markus v Boonen 4.5 with Bet365

    Okay Boonen should win, but 4.5 seems ridiculous.
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  • « Last Edit: February 11, 2014, 19:23 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #179 on: February 12, 2014, 21:22 »
    Close with both.  :(

    Qatar Stage 5

    Markus v Demare 2.2 with Bet365

    Demare down to four helpers after all the crashes etc. Belkin have a full squad and now with Boom out of the GC picture they'll be more concerned with trying to win a stage. Think Bos has been suffering a bit after a crash earlier in the week and hasn't really figured, so Barry should be their main man if it comes to a sprint (which isn't guaranteed even with the finishing circuit - more winds probably).
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