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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #30 on: September 07, 2013, 21:36 »
Well these conditions seem to favour balls over climbing ability, so I'll have a stab in the dark with Preidler for tomorrow's stage at 201 with PP - he seems a bit of a fighter from the little I've seen of him.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #31 on: September 07, 2013, 22:22 »
    Nibali and Horner at 14-1 for tommorrow with pp. Ok Breakaway probably will take it but they have Valverde 3-1.
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #32 on: September 08, 2013, 16:22 »
    Damn Roche stops me from saving my money through each way  :angry
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #33 on: September 08, 2013, 20:23 »
    I've never liked Nico either.  :D

    Shorter stage tomorrow and looks like nicer weather, so maybe less chance of a break succeeding. On the other hand with all the withdrawals and fatigue setting in it wouldn't surprise me if we get more leaks that make it.

    I'll stick with Preidler at 201 for tomorrow, though there was much facepalming this morning when he didn't make it into the 28 man break.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #34 on: September 10, 2013, 21:32 »
    Thankfully no odds are available for Preidler tomorrow, otherwise I'd have been forced to select him again.

    Not too sure what to make of tomorrow's stage. Does any team have the strength to control a sizeable break? I dunno. Small single on Hansen at 151.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #35 on: September 10, 2013, 21:36 »
    yeh, if it's a break, Hansen or Flecha maybe.

    ...if not, I can even see a gc guy winning it, like Valverde, Nibali or Samu. No value for the sprinters on that finish.
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #36 on: September 11, 2013, 18:42 »
    Nocentini 201 ew for tomorrow's stage. Covers both bases (just).

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #37 on: September 12, 2013, 17:07 »
    Quebec on Friday - Chernetsky 251ew

    Doesn't look like PP will have markets on the sprint event which is a shame. Lutsenko was being talked up by his DS for the event "Lutsenko can do this, he has the strength and the intelligence to do really well. It's not a pure sprint - they race 500m with a slight downhill, then turn 180 degrees to come back up to the finish. There's a smart, tactical way to win this kind of race and Lutsenko is going to surprise a lot of people on Thursday". Tempted to put money in my Billy Hills account where he's available at 251.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #38 on: September 13, 2013, 17:31 »
    ToB Stage 1

    Bongiorno at 201 with PP.

    Odds tend to suggest a sprint finish, but I'm not so sure.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #39 on: September 13, 2013, 18:34 »
    I can't bet at PaddyPower, but Horner @5 for tomorrow is ridiculous, it will either be a breakaway or him, can't see anyone else winning this
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #40 on: September 14, 2013, 07:30 »
    ToB Stage 1

    Bongiorno at 201 with PP.

    Odds tend to suggest a sprint finish, but I'm not so sure.

    It's basically flat, a small section 4-5% about 1km out (I forget exactly). The roads are very narrow though so could be chaos. Reijnen @151, good value for the place.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #41 on: September 14, 2013, 09:30 »
    I can't bet at PaddyPower, but Horner @5 for tomorrow is ridiculous, it will either be a breakaway or him, can't see anyone else winning this

    Price has nearly halved on Horner.   ;)

    Do you think the break has a chance? I guess the onus would be on Katusha mainly to keep the gap small. Would they get much help (other than from teams that miss the break)?

    I guess my ToB thinking is rain+wind+small roads+small teams = hard to control stage, but we'll see.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #42 on: September 14, 2013, 09:54 »
    I think Katusha and Movistar will try to make it hard to improve the chance of dropping Nibali on the Angliru, so I can't really see a breakaway having a chance.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #43 on: September 14, 2013, 17:48 »
    Montreal

    Bardet 301ew
    Chernetsky 301ew

    Chernetsky looked quite good in Quebec.

    Post Merge: September 14, 2013, 17:52
    ...and Visconti at 67 with PP for the overall at ToB.

    Post Merge: September 15, 2013, 19:52
    ToB Stage 2

    Finishes with 750m at ~7% with bits of ~18%

    Gonna try Martin at 151ew with PP.
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  • « Last Edit: September 15, 2013, 19:52 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #44 on: September 16, 2013, 01:35 »
    Ugh, paddy took their stage market down? I like Pardilla but too short.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #45 on: September 19, 2013, 04:57 »
    Porte RR @ 301 :D
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #46 on: September 19, 2013, 19:50 »
    ToB Stage 6

    Gonna be real tough to beat Martin/Quintana, but Adam Yates 151ew

    http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/yates-brothers-eye-haytor-worlds-and-pro-ranks

    “There are still some good stages ahead for me. I’ve got my eye on that stage in Devon, although Simon could make the top 10 and I will work for him. But, because he’s my brother, he’ll let me have a bit of a freedom if I’m feeling good. I reckon that stage is going to be a really savage one, but I’ll have a good crack at it.”

    Post Merge: September 19, 2013, 20:14
    Worlds RR.

    I'm really struggling to visualize him wearing the rainbow stripes, but Weening 301ew.

    Also my man Bardet at 501ew.
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  • « Last Edit: September 19, 2013, 20:14 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #47 on: September 19, 2013, 20:45 »
    ToB Stage 6

    Gonna be real tough to beat Martin/Quintana, but Adam Yates 151ew


    Where was this, PP? They seem to have wised up soon enough
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #48 on: September 19, 2013, 20:54 »
    Yes it's with Patrick Paauwe.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #49 on: September 20, 2013, 00:10 »
    Looking at the odds, theres loads of good ones but of course its decieving because this race is 5 times more competitive than any other, so top riders who would usually be 5-1 max for any race they decide to target at any other point of the season are now like 15-1 which looks like great odds as they are the lowest youll ever get for those riders, but considering the competition, probably not good enough.

    Just from the bottom lines of the sheet, you got guys like Konig who just won a stage of the Vuelta 350-1, Majka 400-1, Spillack who on his Spring form could easily take a race like this with the right tactics- 400-1, Rains of Taramei 600-1, Pinot, who anyone that plays PCM will have seen win multiple Liege Bastogne Lieges, and just came top 10 in Vuelta- 400-1, Amador who was looking like superman at the beginning of the season -350-1, Oliver Zaugg, a guy who has ridden all the top guys off his wheel on a monument, and who has been on peak last 2 Autumns,  and might be Cancellara's go to send up the road guy, 300-1. etc,
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #50 on: September 20, 2013, 05:08 »
    Scarponi @ 81 PP

    For today Elmiger @ 29, it flattens out in the final 2.5km and he's the best finisher, though it will be hard to catch Martin/Quintana if they go from the bottom.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #51 on: September 21, 2013, 01:55 »
    Pfft, who let espoirs race.

    Today is an easy sprint but if the first 50km are fast and the break forms late it might have a fair chance, so Holohan and Adam Yates straight up.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #52 on: September 21, 2013, 06:52 »
    ...and it's not really an easy sprint, cobbles, uphill, narrow roads and stuff
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #53 on: September 21, 2013, 07:31 »
    Yeh I hadn't looked at it closer when I said that. The GPX profile on the website didn't actually show the final straight. So I've gone Bennett top3 @ 6.50.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #54 on: September 21, 2013, 17:00 »
    Scarponi's price seems to have gone out for the RR
    Spoiler (hover to show)
      :S

    TTT

    Trying Movistar at 126ew and Katusha at 301ew just for a bit of interest. Hopefully they may put up some interesting H2Hs or a market for the women's race.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #55 on: September 22, 2013, 21:19 »
    I was hoping somebody else was going to dip a toe in the U23 TT water first.

    Couple of top-3 picks with Bet365.

    Kung 5.5
    Sutterlin 6
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #56 on: September 22, 2013, 21:40 »
    ...and is Flakemore really stronger than Howsen? He did beat him in Chrono Champenois last week, but still, in the australian races Howsen did always beat him relatively easily
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #57 on: September 22, 2013, 22:02 »
    ...and is Flakemore really stronger than Howsen? He did beat him in Chrono Champenois last week, but still, in the australian races Howsen did always beat him relatively easily
    Flakemore has beaten Howson in the three big ITTs they have contested this season. So I would go for Flakemore and I think Flakemore is better at the longer distances.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #58 on: September 22, 2013, 22:06 »
    mmh, in the european, yeh, and he did crash in the Tour de l'Avenir recently. He did clearly beat him in the australian and oceanian championship though (both ~30-35km, and both by ~40 seconds)

    edit: and in the Thüringen Ründfahrt and Olympia Tour the timetrials came after a couple of stages, that's a bit different. Durbridge for example still falters massively in timetrials during stage races (or after going full out for a couple of days before at least).
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #59 on: September 23, 2013, 09:56 »
    Howson should be favourite.
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