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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #60 on: September 23, 2013, 15:59 »
..and Howsen wins.

Women's TT - nice preview if you haven't already read it .

Top-3 picks again with Bet365

Brennauer 8
Gunnewijk 19
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #61 on: September 24, 2013, 20:56 »
    Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.

    Maybe some H2Hs are the solution.

    Brajkovic v Grivko 2.5
    Barta v Castroviejo 2.5
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #62 on: September 24, 2013, 21:52 »
    Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.


    Surely one would need to look for the early starters getting some uber favourable wind conditions or something.
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #63 on: September 24, 2013, 22:09 »
    Any realistic chance of anyone other than Phinney/Malori breaking into the top three tomorrow? A couple of names around the 100 mark I could see possibly getting top 5 on a really good day, but it looks very tough to get on the podium.

    Maybe some H2Hs are the solution.

    Brajkovic v Grivko 2.5
    Barta v Castroviejo 2.5

    Grivko is not starting. Same for Kangert btw, too bad, Lulu vs him at 2+ would have been the best H2H available
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #64 on: September 25, 2013, 08:50 »
    That'll explain why the market has now disappeared. Nvm - a void bet is probably my most successful bet for the past couple of months.  :lol
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #65 on: September 25, 2013, 19:49 »
    Nice price of 501 for winning nationality of Kazakh on PP. Consider Iglinskiy is priced up most places 100-200 and you get Lutsenko thrown in for free.

    Spoiler (hover to show)

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #66 on: September 25, 2013, 19:58 »
    Kangert and Grivko already said during the Vuelta that they would focus on TTT and road race only. Brajkovic (and Velits) decided not to do the TT after doing a recob of the course and seeing no possibilities to reach a good result anyway

    Spoiler (hover to show)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #67 on: September 26, 2013, 14:10 »
    What has Herklotz been up to?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #68 on: September 26, 2013, 14:18 »
    still too young I'd say, but who knows. What about Hirt?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #69 on: September 27, 2013, 22:04 »
    Got a feeling Bronzini might pull it off tomorrow - been climbing quite well, but just a couple of outsiders for interest.

    Brand 151ew
    Pawlowksa 201ew

    Post Merge: September 27, 2013, 22:26
    ....and any news on the form of Henao and Betancur? Price of 3 available for Betancur to win the H2H, but not much point unless there's a good chance that he'll finish the race.
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  • « Last Edit: September 27, 2013, 22:26 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #70 on: September 28, 2013, 19:18 »
    Some H2Hs for tomorrow with PP.

    Uran v Sanchez 2.75
    Quintana v Froome 2.25



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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #71 on: September 28, 2013, 23:14 »
    Bardet to beat Barguil @~2,4 is my favorite matchbet for tomorrow

    I doubt Barguil still has the shape, and he has never shown anything in a proper one day race - or has ever ridden a race over that distance. Bardet on the other site is a promising one day classic style rider, was very strong in his first Lombardia and close to finish Top 10 in his first ever LBL
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #72 on: September 30, 2013, 10:58 »
    Put money on that head to head, froome vs Quintana (Quintana)
     Neither finished so pp take my money and say I lose the bet. I thought in these cases they declare it void.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #73 on: September 30, 2013, 11:01 »
    Put money on that head to head, froome vs Quintana (Quintana)
     Neither finished so pp take my money and say I lose the bet. I thought in these cases they declare it void.

    I had exactly the same bet with PP and I got my stake refunded, so I'd e-mail them. Still haven't paid out on the Uran H2H though :S.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #74 on: September 30, 2013, 11:03 »
    the rules are crystal clear:

    Quote
    Cycling head-to-heads

    Head-to-heads will be settled upon the cyclist achieving the highest placing in the specified event/stage. In the event of one or both cyclists do not start the event/stage then bets will be deemed void. If both cyclists start but fail to finish a specific event/stage then bets will be deemed void. If both cyclists start a specific event/stage and only one fails to finish then the cyclist who completes the specific event/stage will be deemed the winner

    just send them a mail with a reference to the rules and a link to the official result and they will regrade that wager. Bookies ofter make mistakes in case of DNF/DNS of riders, but usually it's rectified shortly afterwards
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #75 on: September 30, 2013, 11:04 »
    I guess I should check mine too.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #76 on: September 30, 2013, 11:08 »
    btw, I was soo peeed yesterday, I expected Grivko to be very strong and took him to beat Kiryienka at good odds - and then he finished 5th despite crashing the lap earlier but Belarus lined up Sivtsov instead of Kiryienka  :fp

    but on the other side, I wasn't too unlucky with Barguil crashing out early on, so it's okay
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #77 on: September 30, 2013, 11:17 »
    If leadelly emailed pp and informed them they had called the bet wrong, don't they have mechanism to ensure all those who did that bet get it corrected or is it only if you complain?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #78 on: September 30, 2013, 11:28 »
    usually it should be the same for everyone
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #79 on: September 30, 2013, 11:29 »
    I didn't e-mail them - mine was settled correctly. I was just advising you to e-mail them or to use their live chat thingy.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #80 on: October 02, 2013, 09:28 »
    Milano-Torino

    Martin 26ew - hopefully a bit fresher/drier than the other big names.
    Visconti 151ew

    (strangely the market isn't visible if you go the PP site, but you can bet by making your selection from oddschecker)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #81 on: October 02, 2013, 09:41 »
    mmh, the Superga is basically 5k at 10%, can't really see Visconti winning there.

    regarding the odds I'd say Pozzovivo or Atapuma, but I can't bet with PP and VC anyway. Martin looks good as well (if he didn't crash too hard on sunday)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #82 on: October 02, 2013, 10:21 »
    Missed it, Atapuma at 101 looked OK.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #83 on: October 04, 2013, 16:14 »
    GdL prices are up at PP - get 'em while they're hot!

    Kwiatek 151ew - zero form, but got the skill set
    Nordhaug 301ew
    Vichot 301ew

    Post Merge: October 05, 2013, 16:00
    Some H2H interest with Bet365.

    Costa v Valverde 3.00  - should be fun seeing who is the alpha male now
    Sagan v Gilbert 2.50
    Cunego v Nocentini 2.40
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  • « Last Edit: October 05, 2013, 16:00 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #84 on: October 05, 2013, 23:59 »
    Some H2H interest with Bet365.

    Costa v Valverde 3.00  - should be fun seeing who is the alpha male now
    Sagan v Gilbert 2.50
    Cunego v Nocentini 2.40

    For once I disagree with you lead. Safe money is on Valverde being leader. Gilbert has better history in this than Sagan. Might be right on Cunego though.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #85 on: October 06, 2013, 05:24 »
    yeah, Valverde and Purito had a semi rest day on wednesday when they did not fight for the win in Milano Torino, so they can peak for another 3 months now...

    I think they just must feel all this efforts of racing on top level since june to some extent at least and will struggle today - but yeh, that's what I expected a month ago already...so we will see. Will still bet against them I think
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #86 on: October 06, 2013, 10:22 »
    Where do you need Purito to finish below Hitch if you're to still have a chance of your Froome bet winning for the World Tour points leader thingy? and is Purito going to Beijing? I thought I'd read he was, but no sign of him on cyclingfever's start list (I guess if he wins today there's no need to go to China).
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #87 on: October 06, 2013, 16:28 »
    I just realized that since my Froome bet potentially had me winning £120, I should have put £10 on Murito winning this, taking a hit on the potential Froome winnings, but guaranteeing some sort of winnings unless Purito finished 2nd here.

    Im so so angry with myself now.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #88 on: October 08, 2013, 14:36 »
    Binche-Tournai-Binche

    Haven't looked at the race situation, but quick in-play bet on Drucker 101ew.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #89 on: October 09, 2013, 20:01 »
    Any thoughts on Tsatevich contesting the sprints at ToB?

    Haller and Selig are meant to be sharing the sprinting duties with him, and I was just wondering since both of them had DNFs at Eurometropole (Haller was knocked over by a moto the stage before he quit) whether that would increase his chances of being the sprinter for stage one.

    He's 251 currently and realistically I can't see him podiuming, but surely he's got to be shorter than that if he's got a greater chance of being the sprinter (compared with Haller 67 and Selig 151).

    Maybe I'll show a bit of restraint for once and not bother.
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