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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #810 on: August 25, 2016, 21:24 »
Vuelta Stage 7

Haga 501
Warbasse 501

Both with PP. Nitro and Larry were both in the break the other day, but didn't have the legs for the uphill finish. Tomorrow's stage has 18.5km of descent and flat after the final climb, so maybe more of a chance for the pair......if the break makes it that is.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #811 on: August 26, 2016, 10:17 »
    yeah, and it's Haga's birthday, can't hurt to put a little bet on him I guess
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #812 on: August 26, 2016, 10:19 »
    Both with PP.

    Make that Bet365 btw. :fp
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #813 on: August 28, 2016, 09:18 »
    i've had 2 bets this morning.

    De Gendt for the stage at 25/1 with Ladbrokes

    and

    Contador to win the Vuelta at 9/2 with Betfair.

    He did go out to as big as 14/1 after the crash on Friday.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #814 on: September 03, 2016, 19:48 »
    ToB GC

    Langeveld 301ew
    Vliegen 301ew

    Both with PP. Might as well go with some guys in form.

    BMC have said they're after stages and will see how the GC pans out. Dennis may have the TT, but we saw him struggling on similar terrain in Yorkshire (yo-yoing off the back after climbs), so I'm ruling him out in favour of the youngster.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #815 on: September 17, 2016, 11:26 »
    European Championships RR

    Magic v Geschke 3.0 with Bet365

    Kwiatkowski withdrew from the Polish team the other day. So Paterski is probably now their best bet on this rolling type of terrain. Should be 50/50 with Simon I reckon.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #816 on: September 20, 2016, 12:06 »
    Eneco Time Trial

    Phinney @~20 e/w

    Phinney finally seems to be more or less back to his normal level, at the halfway point he had the same time as Dennis (~10s quicker than Martin) in the Tour of Britain time trial, before he crashed then.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #817 on: September 20, 2016, 12:19 »
    There are two big priced riders that have podiumed WT prologues in the field today.

    I'm on Bevin at 201ew. Now just watch Roelandts do well.  :D

    A bit longer than the PN prologue, but we'll see how he goes.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #818 on: September 20, 2016, 12:39 »
    There are two big priced riders that have podiumed WT prologues in the field today.

    I'm on Bevin at 201ew. Now just watch Roelandts do well.  :D

    A bit longer than the PN prologue, but we'll see how he goes.

    That should be WT prologues this year.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #819 on: November 02, 2016, 18:11 »
    TdF 2017 GC

    Izagirre 501ew
    Fuglsang 401ew

    Ion doesn't think he has it in him to be a GT contender and that one week races are more to his liking - 5th, 3rd and 2nd at PN, Romandie and TdS this year shows that at least the second half of that statement is correct. He could be right about the GT bit too, he didn't exactly impress when he had his chance at co-leadership at the Giro in 2015, but Copeland would like him to give it a go and with Nibali heading to the Giro, it's likely to be at the Tour. The slightly different parcour to normal years could play in his favour too.

    Anyway if he does do well in the WT stage races, his price is bound to fall and cash out is always an option closer to July.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #820 on: November 21, 2016, 20:37 »
    Anybody interested in a betting challenge in 2017? Just for fun I hasten to add and maybe a suitable medal :betting

    Couple of simple ideas related to H2Hs. The longest winning streak over the course of the whole year and/or similarly, the biggest bank achieved from a 1 unit start with all-in roll overs (if that makes sense).

    We could have a few basic rules and you don't actually have to put on a real bet (though where's the fun in that).

    So anybody interested? If it's just me vs search I probably won't bother, as we all know who'd win anyway...  ;)
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #821 on: December 11, 2016, 08:28 »
    Anybody interested in a betting challenge in 2017? Just for fun I hasten to add and maybe a suitable medal :betting

    Couple of simple ideas related to H2Hs. The longest winning streak over the course of the whole year and/or similarly, the biggest bank achieved from a 1 unit start with all-in roll overs (if that makes sense).

    We could have a few basic rules and you don't actually have to put on a real bet (though where's the fun in that).

    So anybody interested? If it's just me vs search I probably won't bother, as we all know who'd win anyway...  ;)

    As someone who has an occassional bet I'd be interested in this.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #822 on: December 13, 2016, 18:18 »
    As someone who has an occassional bet I'd be interested in this.

    :cool

    After a bit of thought I think it would be too complicated to have separate competitions. So I'm leaning towards the first idea (longest winning streak) having more merit ie. it'll be the simplest to follow.

    Possible rules:

    No after eventing
    Only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc) - to avoid carry over confusion
    One bet per event (or should it be one per day to avoid hassle over race finishing times?)
    Only odds of 2.0 or greater

    Any thoughts, amendations or additions?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #823 on: December 13, 2016, 18:21 »
    yeah, we can give it a try I think. This will be over by day 3 anyway, if it's only about the longest winning streak ;)
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #824 on: December 14, 2016, 18:29 »
    :cool

    After a bit of thought I think it would be too complicated to have separate competitions. So I'm leaning towards the first idea (longest winning streak) having more merit ie. it'll be the simplest to follow.

    Possible rules:

    No after eventing
    Only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc) - to avoid carry over confusion
    One bet per event (or should it be one per day to avoid hassle over race finishing times?)
    Only odds of 2.0 or greater

    Any thoughts, amendations or additions?

    I think we'd need to make it one per day so as we don't have confusion with things like someone having one pick in the final stage of the tour of catalunya and also one in Ghent Wevelgem which I think would be on the same day. you'd have to decide to have that days selection in one or the other.

    I like the greater than 2.0 suggestion as it will mean you'd always be having to pick the least fancied rider by the bookies.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #825 on: December 31, 2016, 01:00 »
    I'm in but I think I drained my Pinny account :D Haven't really done H2Hs outside of TTTs for a few years now.

    Paddy have Aus Nationals up, going Howson in both ITT and RR plus a couple of others closer in. Dennis is ridiculously priced and for the RR GreenEdge have a pretty weak team these days and will not be able to control it until 170km for Gerrans.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #826 on: January 03, 2017, 18:22 »
    Australian RR

    Chris Hamilton 201ew with PP

    No team mates for him in the race and it's his first time with the elites, but on the other hand he is the U23 champ and good enough to get a place on a WT team.
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  • DJWillis14

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #827 on: January 07, 2017, 11:47 »
    That's interesting, I was looking at backing Haas, McCarthy and Hamilton, might take him EW at those odds.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #828 on: January 12, 2017, 10:55 »
    TDU GC

    Ulissi 26ew
    Morton 151ew
    Canty 401ew

    All with PP. Ulissi has done well on Willunga previously and the Paracombe finish is right up his street too. Morton and Canty both look in form after the Nats.

    Just waiting for those stage H2Hs to get posted.  :D
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #829 on: January 15, 2017, 02:25 »
    For today:

    Swift @ 34

    For GC:

    Thomas Geraint @ 51
    Brambilla @ 67
    Mas @ 601

    Ignore those last two, Lefevere's boys don't have a great record here.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #830 on: January 15, 2017, 11:46 »
    For today:

    Swift @ 34

    For GC:

    Thomas Geraint @ 51
    Brambilla @ 67
    Mas @ 601

    Ignore those last two, Lefevere's boys don't have a great record here.

    Vakoc is leader isn't he?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #831 on: January 17, 2017, 09:01 »
    TDU Stage 2

    Goncalves 51ew with PP

    When the Katusha team was announced I did think the course was a good one for him and he did go after bonifications today, so he must be interested in the GC. Last time they went up here there was a lot of looking around and a repeat of that would be ideal.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #832 on: January 17, 2017, 11:32 »
    Like a few in triple figures, first """MTF"" of the year so why not.

    Actually might give Lachlan "Norton" a miss.

    Vakoc @ 67
    Bevin @ 151
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  • « Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 11:55 by Arb »

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #833 on: January 18, 2017, 11:22 »
    Not terrible I guess lol, Mas still in play for GC place or something. Gotta stop backing Thomas in the TDU on the basis of one climb three years ago...
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  • DJW

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #834 on: January 18, 2017, 11:42 »
    My fiver on Sagan is going nowhere good. Had £10 on McCarthy over Gerrans at 1.73 which was nice this morning
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #835 on: January 27, 2017, 20:09 »
    CEGORR

    Valls 401ew with PP

    I think last year he was involved in some of the dangerous attacks towards the end, so the course is one that he can perform on and he showed in the TDU that he was back in form after a pretty poor 2016.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #836 on: January 28, 2017, 00:47 »
    Really open race despite a much deeper field this year.

    Serge Henao @ 151
    Kelderman @ 151
    Froome @ 151

    All PP
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  • « Last Edit: January 28, 2017, 00:58 by Arb »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #837 on: January 31, 2017, 15:20 »
    Dubai Stage 2

    Colbrelli 201ew with PP

    An embarrassing crash more than anything earlier on, certainly no injuries according to Sonny. I think he was 100 or under for today's stage, so I'm not sure how what happened today equates to his price going out for another sprint tomorrow. Anyway, once you get past the top 4 or 5 names, the sprint field isn't that deep as evidenced by Consonni and Jempy being up there. Could snatch a podium on one of these remaining days.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #838 on: February 13, 2017, 22:02 »
    Oman GC

    Martin 101ew with PP

    Colbrelli 201ew with PP

    Could snatch a podium on one of these remaining days.

    Just not the day I was on him. :angry
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #839 on: February 18, 2017, 22:22 »
    Ruta del Sol Stage 5

    Moreno 351 with Bet365

    Let's take a bit of a punt of my own research for once. Small chance for someone to take advantage of any potential disarray after the 800m climb near the end, and why not Moreno? He's one of only three local boys riding, he's pretty punchy and while he is in the top-ten of GC, only Uran (and Tschink who doesn't count) would be under threat.
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