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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #90 on: October 10, 2013, 08:44 »
mmh, Tsatevich is not really a sprinter, so I'd say no, even at 250-1 I think

for Beijing it's always hard to say who is still in shape, who will cope with the conditions in what way and so on, but still, I can't really see it happen

at those odds they have at PP I'd say von Hoff is good value at 50-1
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #91 on: October 10, 2013, 20:00 »
    Yeah, I'm a bit sceptical too, but it will be interesting to see how Katusha play it anyway.

    Overall H2H

    Gesink v (Dan) Martin 2.6 I see this as pretty even. Both in good nick and the climbs don't get steep enough to favour Martin really. Could come down to who has the better sprint or who has the luck.

    Stage 1 H2H

    Petacchi v Matthews 2.6
    Hushovd v Mezgec 2.1
    Hofland v Bozic 2.2

    All with Bet365
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #92 on: October 10, 2013, 21:25 »
    I don't think Contador will win the Tour de France next year, but 18-1 are awfully long odds Paddy Power are putting on a guy who it is not totally unreasonable to believe underperformed with 4th.
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #93 on: October 10, 2013, 22:01 »
    yeh, it's too long propably, e/w at least

    I like Polanc tb Ignatenko for GC at ~1,8. Polanc is by far the bigger talent and also Lampre's leader for this race + in good shape, while I haven't seen anything from Ignatenko for months. If he isn't struggling too much with changing timezones and stuff + doing a wt stage race for the first time he should beat Ignatenko pretty comfortably I think.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #94 on: October 10, 2013, 22:04 »
    Haven't really thought  about the Tour myself - I don't like tying money up that far in advance.

    I'd want to know a bit more about the course and TTs first. When does it get revealed? Velowire has a TT rumoured between Bergerac and Périgueux which I guess could be rolling/flat.

    I do notice a certain Chris Horner is available at 501 if you have an account with youwin (I've never heard of them either). All he needs is to find a new team, decide to ride the Tour and get a course with few TT kms in it.

    Mollema at 151 is quite tempting too. Ran out of gas/bit of illness towards the end this year, but without that a podium or top five at least was on.
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  • killswitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #95 on: October 10, 2013, 22:19 »
    I do notice a certain Chris Horner is available at 501 if you have an account with youwin (I've never heard of them either). All he needs is to find a new team, decide to ride the Tour and get a course with few TT kms in it.
    He already told Velonews he wants to win a second Vuelta. At his age I guess he's fed up with always working for someone else - won't do the Tour. Probably the same race program as this year - Tirreno/Catalunia/4th GT/Suisse?/Utah/Vuelta.
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  • Joelsim: The huge winner today - Landa.
    just some guy: Aye he marginal gained the flip out of it

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #96 on: October 10, 2013, 22:22 »
    another quick H2H for stage one

    Bouhanni v Viviani 2.4 Odds for Bouhanni seem to have drifted here a bit (I'm sure they were level pegging when first posted), not sure why.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #97 on: October 10, 2013, 22:26 »
    yeh, looks like a decent one

    I also like your Hushovd-one, odds went up there by quite a margin as well. Looks like the Argos guys went to China relatively late - and I am not sure about Hushovd's shape but I doubt someone of his calibre would go to China if he didn't have some kind of form & ambition at least

    edit: same for Viviani btw, went to China one day later than Bouhanni
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #98 on: October 10, 2013, 22:37 »
    It was a bit tongue in cheek my comment about Horner, but you never know, maybe the team he joins (I'm presuming he gets one) will want him to ride the Tour (or maybe even the Giro) instead of the Vuelta.

    re: Hushovd v Mezgec - I was even wondering whether Veelers may even get a chance of going for a sprint or two. Mezgec hasn't been up to much recently - could be a bit undercooked.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #99 on: October 11, 2013, 09:39 »
    good ones today, Leadbelly   :cool
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #100 on: October 11, 2013, 13:14 »
    Tsatevich was kinda in the mix too. Think Selig was leading him out, but they were too far back and came far too late. Was a fun sprint all in all.

    Paris-Tours

    Gasparotto 81ew
    Leukemans 101ew

    Both with PP

    Post Merge: October 11, 2013, 22:31
    and Vachon 401ew.

    Post Merge: October 12, 2013, 14:27
    ToB Stage 3

    I'll stick my neck out and say that Bouhanni won't get dropped tomorrow (or if he is, he'll get back on before the finish).

    67ew with PP. Viviani is the same price, but he seems to have lost his sprinting legs.

    Post Merge: October 12, 2013, 19:23
    I wonder how many posts I can merge in a row?  :lol

    What are the chances you think of Markus or Von Hoff making it tomorrow? Both at big prices on Bet365. My gut feeling is that they have less chance to make it than some of the better climbing sprinters, but I'd be interested to hear other views though.
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  • « Last Edit: October 12, 2013, 19:23 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #101 on: October 12, 2013, 19:34 »
    hard to say, I think it can go either way, last year the medium mountain stages were very selective, which could lead to someone like Visconti, Roux or Ponzi maybe, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger sprint as well. Barry Markus hasn't shown much signs of shape recently though, and with Flecha they have someone who might prefer a harder race.

    Paris Tours is totally unpredictable I think, feeling says Roelandts might show something, but the odds are not exactly stellar.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #102 on: October 12, 2013, 19:52 »
    Ta search, will give Barry and Steele a miss. However I will have some of Viviani at 67ew (despite what I said earlier). I'm a sucker for big odds.

    I think Gaspa has a very good chance for Paris-Tours - got some fine late season form. The big price mover however has been Debusschere (Lotto say he's the back up plan to Roelandts) went from 250+ down to ~30. I'll be kicking myself big time if he gets anywhere near the podium as I'd kinda dismissed him offhandedly. Oh well.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #103 on: October 13, 2013, 07:55 »
    Jempy @ 501
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #104 on: October 13, 2013, 10:43 »
    Might just have to change my vote for stage race of the year.

    Post Merge: October 13, 2013, 18:57
    ToB Stage 4. Some H2Hs with Bet365

    Costa v (Dan)Martin 2.5 Both got a decent kick
    Intxausti v Herrada 2.5 I'm guessing they're slightly favouring Benat since he got that bonus second today (could have been a coincidence he got the bonus ofc - I was fast asleep)

    Post Merge: October 13, 2013, 19:12
    and Rogers at 101ew with PP for a bit of lulz.
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  • « Last Edit: October 13, 2013, 19:12 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #105 on: October 14, 2013, 21:13 »
    Markus to beat Petacchi combined with Maes t.b. Haller @~6,4 looks like a decent parley bet for tomorrow. OPQS can very well go for Maes here I think - and even if not it could work out

    Selig tb Vangenechten at ~2,7 is too high as well, no matter the circumstances (with Selig/Haller/Tstaevich - whoever will sprint), Vangenechten is just not that good.

    all with pinnaclesports
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #106 on: October 15, 2013, 10:45 »
    Selig tb Vangenechten at ~2,7 is too high as well, no matter the circumstances (with Selig/Haller/Tstaevich - whoever will sprint), Vangenechten is just not that good.

    A good note on which to end the cycling/betting season (at least I don't think there'll be any more betting opportunities). Good ToB all round for VR.

    Time now to think of some CQ teams for next year's comps.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #107 on: October 15, 2013, 10:50 »
    yeh, indeed, betting wise Tour of Beijing turned out be a good end of the season.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #108 on: October 23, 2013, 15:03 »
    Time to get on Contador, cobbles add significant uncertainty.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #109 on: December 15, 2013, 21:50 »


     :D

    MSR is a long way away, but PP have their odds up.
     
    Bardet 501ew
    Si Clarke 501ew

    Don't know yet if they will be racing, but the extra climb should suit them if they do. Orica could have lots of different cards to play, but Clarke impressed at the Worlds.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #110 on: December 16, 2013, 02:07 »
    HUNTER @ 401 has a great chance.

    Not sure why Gilbert is 7, maybe they know something we don't. I think Cancellara, Gerrans and Kwiatkowski are overs.

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  • Wheelie1977

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #111 on: January 04, 2014, 20:08 »
    I don't think Contador will win the Tour de France next year, but 18-1 are awfully long odds Paddy Power are putting on a guy who it is not totally unreasonable to believe underperformed with 4th.

    completely agree but at even larger odds and with some serious claims from 2012 and 2013 form, Rigo Uran could be podium bound at 66/1 - thats where I'll be putting money.
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    Wheelie1977

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #112 on: January 04, 2014, 20:13 »
    Big year for Diego Ulissi also and I expect him to shine at Milan San Remo with the new changes. He played the faithful domestique for Pozzato in the Italian season openers but those roles could well be reversed on the new course. There was a lot of smart money for Ulissi in Florence but he didn't have the legs - thats the type of rider he will be come - a World Champ in the making to follow up his Junior titles.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #113 on: January 04, 2014, 20:22 »
    good points, but so far Ulissi has not proved himself in hard races/stages. It's about time for him to make that step up, but I can't really see any value in 33-1 to be honest.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #114 on: January 04, 2014, 23:39 »
    completely agree but at even larger odds and with some serious claims from 2012 and 2013 form, Rigo Uran could be podium bound at 66/1 - thats where I'll be putting money.

    66/1 for podium or for win? I assume you mean win and each way it but i dont think thats so great. I generally hype Uran more than most and he was my pick for the worlds, but a TDF podium, well its doubtful even if he starts the TDF and if he did he doesn't have a team and I can't see him beat Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali,
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  • Wheelie1977

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #115 on: January 05, 2014, 15:35 »
    66/1 for podium or for win? I assume you mean win and each way it but i dont think thats so great. I generally hype Uran more than most and he was my pick for the worlds, but a TDF podium, well its doubtful even if he starts the TDF and if he did he doesn't have a team and I can't see him beat Froome, Quintana, Contador, Nibali,

    Quintana could be Giro bound and if he does the Tour as well, you'd think his level wouldn't be quite the same - depending on priorities of course. I don't think Froome or Nibali can be matched but there's a large number of next tier riders looking to make that final podium spot. Whilst I think Contador is favourite for 3rd behind those 2, I don't think Uran should be over 3 times his price even at early shows if he makes the Tour his target. Two Top 5 placings in two years in the Giro as an understudy cannot be ignored now that he's team leader and the argument could be made it was he who fended for himself ( 2012)and for Wiggins (2013 crash chase) in those two events. But look, it's Paddy Power and I can't get a euro on with them without bringing that price in.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #116 on: January 05, 2014, 15:40 »
    Contador finally came into 13 and is now at tens...

    Uran at the JVDB sort of level seems about right imo. Bet365 are usually very accurate I rarely have win/place success there. The long straight flat ITT will be very hard on Uran. Even a form Andy beats him there. Valverde and a 2013 Contador would put a couple of minutes into him so it means they'd have to get dropped on every big stage and we've only seen ability in that sort of vicinity from Uran on one single day. The biggest plus on Uran is that he is going to a new team and still hasn't tried in that many GTs so may bring something more to the table. I prefer Mollema @ 151, Gesink (don't laugh) and Henao @ 201, Kangert @ 601! (365) in terms of podium value. Overall though I think the podium is pretty well locked out by Froome/Nibali/Valverde/Contador, but sh*t can happen so it's not a bad move to pick big odds outsiders for the place if there are only 4, max 5 contenders clearly ahead.

    But hey, you can also back someone in January and blow your cash by June when they do their collarbone. I learned that the hard way in 2010 when I backed Pellizotti a couple of weeks out from the Giro only for the UCI to come to the party on the eve of the race. I wouldn't really recommend betting long range futures unless there is a serious overvaluation or you have cornered the market with high odds on multiple contenders. For 2012 I got Evans/Wiggins/Froome/Menchov at stupid odds over 6 months out, but that was a play on Contador's suspension. For 2013 Froome was always the man to beat for me but I waited and waited just to be sure, and I think around March I got him unchanged all year @ 3.75 and used that position to bring in Quintana, Rodriguez and Porte (ok, I think I got on Porte as soon as he smoked Eze) which made me feel very comfortable except I was missing Contador who was always too short to back. 2014 there isn't any value (beyond wild speculations) outside of the Contador play but that can now be used to bring value to say Valverde @ 34 which is looking very attractive. If you had both of those and considered the win portion of the bets a write off you're still getting I think 70% return on just one of them making the podium.

    The real trick is to wait and see how the season unfolds and act on new information before the books have time to adjust. If you see career best form, injury, doping rumours etc act immediately if you think it's significant enough. Make your picks when you're absolutely certain that they will not drift any higher. So yeh, I think you have to be a bit lucky with the markets and news to do well months out. Without that I'd only really look at micro bets at large odds more as a novelty than anything else, I do this with Betfair but sadly they only really put their markets up to a month out.

    BTW 365 have some randoms matchups listed, stupid margins though, wouldn't touch them but Scarponi and Porte dogs against Evans and Purito is interesting.

    Paddy usually have Australian Nationals markets, Durbo apparently a bit sick so let's see if we get a gift...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #117 on: January 05, 2014, 16:17 »
    Micro stakes at macro odds are where it's at. You get the buzz of thinking you might win big, without the "buzz" of maybe losing big.  :D

    Some more for the 2014 collection.

    Colbrelli 501ew with PP for MSR
    Spilak 601ew with Bet365 for the Tour

    Scarponi (2.15) over Evans at the Giro as you say looks good and Mollema (2.25) over Costa at the Tour also, but too far away for such small odds.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #118 on: January 07, 2014, 00:49 »
    lol flip you Paddy putting a big margin on it.

    Durbridge 1.22
    Dennis 4.00
    Howson 15
    Hepburn 21

    I think Dennis may be worth a sneaky one.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #119 on: January 07, 2014, 09:36 »
    Well I'll have a go at Howson then at 15. Durbo does seem awfully short at 1.22
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