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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #210 on: February 28, 2014, 09:12 »
Got an e-mail this morning saying it was mis-priced and that the odds are now 51, so I took them up on the option to cancel it.  :(

(he'd better not win/place now)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #211 on: February 28, 2014, 11:11 »
    yeh, to be honest, sometimes it's better to keep silent about it and hope no one else will recognize. The less money on there, the bigger the chance the bookie won't reconize it as well
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #212 on: February 28, 2014, 16:52 »
    Greipel (cold) may be not starting KBK. Small change on Debusschere at 151ew with Bet365.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #213 on: February 28, 2014, 17:48 »
    Couple of fun picks for Omloop both with Bet365.

    Garcia 201ew
    Thurau 251ew

    Hopefully Garcia can channel some of that old Spanish Flecha magic.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #214 on: March 01, 2014, 05:44 »
    Yeh usually a terrible race for me. Didn't follow Qatar at all so it would be in the dark too,

    Boonen doesn't seem too short though.

    Might take Hushovd and GVA in their H2Hs in the hope that greenlight continues to deliver.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #215 on: March 01, 2014, 16:43 »
    Good showing from Egoitz today.

    Little bit on Vanmarcke for PR at 17ew with PP after today's performance.

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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #216 on: March 02, 2014, 06:18 »
    Well, they were both dogs, so profit is profit. Haven't watched it yet but results look like it was the typical weird race.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #217 on: March 06, 2014, 21:04 »
    PN and SB up on Bet365.

    Zoidl 251ew for SB. Active and on the attack on both days at the weekend in France.

    Jungels 201ew for PN GC. Course makes it more open this year and I can't see the Schlecks being that involved.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #218 on: March 06, 2014, 21:30 »
    yeh, Paris Nice will be won by some kind of puncheur, or someone who can win a stage by a late attack and can gain 10-20 seconds or something like that.

    so not by the Schleck brothers, no ;)
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #219 on: March 08, 2014, 08:13 »
    Zoidl still stands out to me.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #220 on: March 08, 2014, 09:31 »
    PP must have a new trader - no fun prices for either SB or PN (and it was the same for Omloop and KBK last weekend).

    Couple more picks for the GC at PN with Bet365.

    Sepulveda 201ew - in form
    Chernetskiy 251ew - punchy, but admittedly did get blown away on Malhao the other week

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #221 on: March 08, 2014, 15:23 »
    Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

    Spoiler (hover to show)
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #222 on: March 08, 2014, 15:29 »
    Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

    Spoiler (hover to show)

    TDF ew aint a bad shout. Of course with Lefevre we often see them go full retard all the way up to May then they ease off. On the other hand considering how long the last 2 TDF winners peaked, I wouldn't totally write off someone with such insane form in March carrying that to July.
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  • « Last Edit: March 08, 2014, 15:39 by The Hitch »
    Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #223 on: March 08, 2014, 15:37 »
    yeh, I mean he had an equal preparation last year and still finished 11th in his first ever Tour de France, despite being sick for a while. Now he is beating (unbeatable) Tony Martin in the time trials and (unbeatable) Sagan in an uphill sprint, so beating Froome & Quintana on the climbs as well can't be too far away ;)
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #224 on: March 08, 2014, 15:41 »
    Kwiatkowski to win everything @∞

    Spoiler (hover to show)

    Got mine off just before they cut to 20. Only 3 either way so 6 but leige is such a lottery in some ways so i didnt want to put too much.

    But many thanks again for the tip.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #225 on: March 08, 2014, 16:10 »
    ...and who knows what may happen to Froome's back over the next few months, but unfortunately I was a bit late to get on the Kwiatek price myself.

    Since it's getting a bit closer though I will have a bit of Pinot 201ew (Bet365) and Mollema 151ew (PP) for the TdF GC.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #226 on: March 09, 2014, 05:06 »
    Pretty sure I picked him to win L-B-L in one of those threads.

    I still have money on him for M-SR but that was before he decided not to do it, hoping for a change of heart.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #227 on: March 09, 2014, 19:34 »
    Well Sepulveda down and out already, but it's not all bad news with several other names losing out.

    Yates at 201ew with Bet365 for the GC - free role according to the Ogres and maybe even more so after Gerrans lost time.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #228 on: March 09, 2014, 19:41 »
    mmh, he was working early on today though accoring to oge's press report:

    Quote
    “There was only one guy up the road,” said McPartland. “We decided we would chase, but we didn’t want to do it ourselves. When it got to 10’30, Giant-Shimano began to ride. They came back to us to ask for help. We put Simon Yates on the front. With guys working together from a few teams, we didn’t have any problems at all bringing back just one rider.”
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #229 on: March 09, 2014, 19:54 »
    I saw that too, but I have selective reading when it comes to reasoning.  :P

    Btw since there's more Froome back rumours today, what are the thoughts on backing Henao (251) or Nieve (601) or would they pull Porte from the Giro?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #230 on: March 09, 2014, 19:56 »
    mmh, yeh, Porte would do both I guess. Or Wiggins will find some motivation to train properly again

    Nieve is not good enough anyway I think, Henao, maybe, yes
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #231 on: March 09, 2014, 20:07 »
    Yeah Nieve would probably lose 5+ mins in the TT and the cobbles wouldn't bear thinking of, but I'll have some of Henao just to see what happens.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #232 on: March 10, 2014, 07:22 »
    I'm positive money on H2Hs in five consecutive race days, some kind of a record for me, not watching any races seems to work well...

    Pretty keen for some T-A odds.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #233 on: March 10, 2014, 13:49 »
    Nieve could podium David Arroy style or Oscar Pereiro style. But its 2013 and its sky (which pulls its breakaway riders back, if they put any up there in the first place) so 600-1 sounds about right.

    But what about Valverde 20-1? EW for a podium how much is that? Is it nowhere near worth it?

    I never thought Valverde could win or podium a tour because hes so damn conservative and an average tter and never does well in the Tour. He never seemed to believe it either I remember an interview with him saying he would like to maybe be on a team that wins a tour rather than win it himself.  Probs cos he thought Contador would always easily beat him.

    But last year he was on song in the Tour, 3rd on Ax3 4th on Semnoz even with no gc position  to fight for.
    He's just shown some flipping balls in Roma Maxima.
     They pulled Quintana from the Tour just for him to be sole leader. I've heard he looks a lot skinnier than he ever did (and looking at the last 2 years, that is very good).
     He's improved his tt since pre suspension (though he wasn't that bad, and a good prologue rider, I think he's better now. Sacrificed some speed for it I think) he's seen he can beat Contador in the mountains, so he won't be scared of that.  Nibali, he really wasn't that far from Nibali in the Vuelta and was probably more tired for it.
    So Froome is left. Obviously he would beat Valverde, but he's got those back problems now, + Gilbert never came back in 2011, Wiggins, maybe it was the same thing last year, who knows.

    I don't know if you can make a better case for anyone other than Froome? 20-1, a good shout?

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #234 on: March 10, 2014, 19:07 »
    He ain't got a chance against Kwiatek.   :P

    Valverde's certainly in the mix - though his provisional team looks a bit weaker than last year, but whether that matters I dunno. Still feel we're missing a lot of 2014 data for some riders. Despite the twenty racing days under his belt, it doesn't feel that Nibali has got started really yet (other than one day in Oman), and I'd love to see a long non-technical TT from Bertie - I think that would be instructive, but it doesn't look like one is pencilled in on his schedule so far (maybe we'll have to wait till the TdF to see it).

    Like Arb I'm looking forward to TA, especially the TTT - there must be ~10 teams in with a chance. Just hope that ew is available.
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  • « Last Edit: March 10, 2014, 20:26 by Leadbelly »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #235 on: March 10, 2014, 21:17 »
    TA prices up on Bet365

    Ulissi 101ew
    Moreno 151ew
    Arredondo 251ew

    Post Merge: March 11, 2014, 19:12
    Moreno out to 201 now! That's insanity (and annoying  :angry) - got to be in the hunt for bonifications (along with Ulissi and Arredondo amongst others) on stage four and five.

    Post Merge: March 11, 2014, 19:12
    TA Stage One

    Astana @ 13 for a top-3
    Cannondale @ 19 for a top-3
    Ogre v OPQS 2.62

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  • « Last Edit: March 11, 2014, 19:12 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #236 on: March 11, 2014, 19:22 »
    Bet365 kindly have PN up also now.

    Gerrans 15
    Stybar 23ew

    Should be the favourites imo.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #237 on: March 11, 2014, 19:24 »
    like the Greenedge one

    I also agree that Tirreno is pretty open in general, can't see any bigger gaps, problem is the time trial in the end, so it will most likely still be Kwiatko oder little Richie who gets the win.

    Saxo looks tempting for tomorrow

    opqs said they were hoping for Bakelants & Meersman tomorrow - as Meersman is gone now, it might now be Bakelants & Stybar, don't know...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #238 on: March 11, 2014, 19:26 »
    and one final H2H for PN

    Slagter v Izaguirre 2.0
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #239 on: March 11, 2014, 19:29 »
    Well something better win soon.  :D

    Got a very long list of unsettled bets. Maybe it's just as well the PP crazy odds era is seemingly over.
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