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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #300 on: April 05, 2014, 15:08 »
Turgot 201ew with Bet365

Top 10 last year, but has showed nothing much this season. Probably drifted enough now though to be worth a small ew bet.

Quite a few cycling related horses available at the Grand National today if you fancy a flutter.

Wayward Prince - Cunego?
Big Shu - Adam Hansen?
Pineau de Re - Cedric or Jerome?
The Rainbow Hunter - lots of possible riders there, Purito maybe

I've gone with Twirling Magnet to place at 26.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #301 on: April 08, 2014, 16:58 »
    Scheldeprijs

    Van Asbroeck 301ew with PP
    Jempy 401ew with PP

    Not sure if TVA is riding actually. PCS doesn't have him down, but the race site does. If he does race though I reckon he should be under 100.

    Who do you think OPQS will ride for?

    Our Giro outsiders bets are starting to look a bit tastier. Porte withdrawing, Horner's bad knee and Uran sick - that third place is up for grabs.
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  • KeithJamesMc

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #302 on: April 08, 2014, 17:03 »
    Scheldeprijs


    Who do you think OPQS will ride for?


    Fenn or Petacchi
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #303 on: April 09, 2014, 19:09 »
    Pais Vasco Stage 4

    TJVG 101ew with PP

    Not sure what his excuses were after stage 1, but let's hope it was a one off - he's had some pretty good climbing days already this season.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #304 on: April 10, 2014, 11:22 »
    Cuddles @ 34, seemed to be third strongest the other day until he blew, dare I say it Arrate is easier.

    Late to the party on H2Hs but got Arashiro to account for Yates.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #305 on: April 10, 2014, 16:09 »
    Might as well try Poels for the Giro at 351ew with Bet365 - maybe Uran won't have recovered from his illness.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #306 on: April 10, 2014, 21:36 »
     Wynants 400-1 for Paris Roubaix?

    Cat came top 10 2 years ago and 13th last year. So he has shown a proven record of being able to perform in Roubaix, something a lot of the people with far far smaller odds have not.

    Secondly he is on Vanmarke's team. Last year Belkin sent Vanmarke up early because he wasn't favoured. In 11 they got Tjalingi on the podium that way and he wasn't far off winning.

    This year Vanmarke is the number 1 challenger, so that won't happen. If they are going to send someone up (especially since Canc's team is weaker)  its between him Boom and Tjalingi (500-1), though Tjalingi is getting old.
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #307 on: April 10, 2014, 23:00 »
    flip me Cuddles' position is flattering him. Fade big time in the TT.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #308 on: April 10, 2014, 23:11 »
    I like the Wynants one, he crashed in Dwars I think, but should be more or less in perfect shape again now

    and thoughts about Hushovd? I don't think he can win, he is not good enough to beat the favorites one on one, and too big of a name to get the freedom he'd need, but he might be attractive for an h2h bet, dependent on the odds (currently 1.83 to beat hagen, which is too low, but odds will go up I am pretty sure)
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #309 on: April 11, 2014, 22:20 »
    Pais Vasco TT

    Spilak v Evans 2.2 with PP

    Unless it rains, which might even it up a bit, this seems pretty safe as Evans' TT-ing decline continues.

    PR

    Tempted to follow Hitch's advice with  Wynants, but the price has already come in.  :(

    Sinkeldam 501ew with PP

    Just to add a bit of interest really (bit boring with only one other bet so far) - shone flashes of ability on the cobbles and presumably Giant will be hoping he'll be the last man up there for Degenkolb (if JD makes it that far). Probably still lacking exp.

    Also PP are doing a money back offer if Boonen wins, in case you haven't noticed.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #310 on: April 11, 2014, 22:24 »
    Tempted to follow Hitch's advice with  Wynants, but the price has already come in.  :(

    still available at 300-1 with the sportsbook on betfair

    my stupid horse I had to put in a parley bet to stretch the limit only came 2nd though, so I am stuck with the top 3 bet myself ;)

    Sinkeldam really is talented on the cobbles, could be too early though, indeed
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #311 on: April 11, 2014, 22:33 »
    Hushovd out to 2.37 now over Eddy. I have to say it would have to go a bit further than that to tempt me (I think Thor is gone, but it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong  :lol), but who knows what the cobbles will bring.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #312 on: April 11, 2014, 22:40 »
    I don't know, EBH sucked pretty hard in Roubaix so far, never in Top 40 even. Hushovd had 4 crashs/mechanicals last year and still finished in front of him.

    But he said he does not feel any good in norwegian media, trouble to breath and so on. That made me a bit unsure about that, otherwise I think he'd still finish in top 20 at least. Even two years ago when he had like the worst year ever he came 14th or something like that
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #313 on: April 11, 2014, 23:21 »
    how is Trofimov's timetrial nowadays? He did a good one in the 2008 Dauphiné ;)

    http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/road/2008/jun08/dauphinelibere08/?id=results/dauphinelibere083

    that's at least one more than Slagter ever did
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #314 on: April 12, 2014, 01:12 »
    I took Eddy when it was 1.83 without really thinking too hard about it (I never back EBH TBH).

    Not sure about Monfort as the one to beat Evans, but whatever.

    Maybe Eki has "taught" Yury how to TT.

    Was hoping there may be value in Peraud for the stage but this new Paddy guy...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #315 on: April 12, 2014, 04:39 »
    I'm expecting a pretty random affair, when was the last time someone did a double-double? More than ever Cancellara is going to have no friends out there, and Vanmarcke isn't going to let himself get burned for a third time running. Like both Boonen and Vanmarcke, but for now I'll try for some random 3rd-4th tier at good prices.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #316 on: April 12, 2014, 14:38 »
    I'm expecting a pretty random affair, when was the last time someone did a double-double?

    don't know, but so far, when Cancellara won the Ronde, he did also win Roubaix
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #317 on: April 12, 2014, 18:46 »
    Easy for Spilak, though I'll admit Evans actually did better than I thought he would.

    Amstel Gold

    Hoogerland 501ew

    Showed nothing really this season, but the Dutch Champ in the Dutch Race? Bound to give it a futile effort on the last lap.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #318 on: April 12, 2014, 21:22 »
    Another to add to the long list of ante-post bets.

    TdF GC

    Peraud 501ew with PP

    Won't win, but if one or two of the big four have bad day/illness/injury he's sure to be one of the pack sniffing round for a podium place. Been shortening elsewhere after his PV performance.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #319 on: April 13, 2014, 03:16 »
    k, Langeveld 120, Burghardt 500, Eisel 700, Hayman 900. Let's go crashfest.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #320 on: April 13, 2014, 08:46 »
    Wynants 650, VJ 1000... One question remains, back Pippo yet again?
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #321 on: April 13, 2014, 09:06 »
    Wynants 650, VJ 1000... One question remains, back Pippo yet again?

    get on  :D
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #322 on: April 13, 2014, 09:21 »
    it's an endless list, schär at 1000, haussler at 650, ladagnous at 800...

    a more serious one on boom around ~100
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #323 on: April 13, 2014, 20:49 »
    Hushovd 1-0 EBH  (otherwise known as search 1-0 Leadbelly and Arb  :we all gonna die:)

    LBL

    Arredondo 251ew

    His big aim is the race a few days before, but I don't see why he can't compete here too. Same skill set as Betancur, Purito etc just that he's a bit greener.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #324 on: April 13, 2014, 21:04 »
    aye, happy with Hushovd today, and Eddie is a gentle guy, knew he was not allowed to roll in as the best norwegian today - as he just wasn't  :P

    Paddy has odds up for Brabant already. Always a weird race, but there might be some value on Simon Yates @101 maybe?! Or Rebellin @51

    edit: ehh, and just regarding his skills, Battaglin as well @151 of course. or did he injure himself or something like that in MSR?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #325 on: April 14, 2014, 18:03 »
    Battaglin does not even start
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #326 on: April 14, 2014, 19:12 »
    Yates could go well, but I dunno if he's starting either - he's not on PCS, but the provisional start-list on the race website has him. So who knows.

    Might have a fan/interest pick or two, but hopefully they'll drift a bit first.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #327 on: April 15, 2014, 09:25 »
    Guess I should have just gone harder on my original guess of fade fabs in Roubaix, almost broke even though.

    LB I'm surprised you haven't gone after Bardet @ 201 for AGR? Honeybadger looks OK too.

    Yates looks good for BP as Gerrans will be a week away from top form if he's even going to hit it this spring. Matthews will have to improved from last week too. Voeckler is looking ominous to me (of course I'd say that) but too short. No idea how they worked Gilbert out.  Reichenbach and Felline might be ok.

    Randomly they have a book for GP Denain, unfortunately no odds for JARRIER.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #328 on: April 15, 2014, 14:46 »
    Yates does ride after all.  :D

    I'm not so sure about Bardet - he's more on my LBL radar, but I like the Honeybadger pick at 201ew with PP - in form, did well at the Worlds in 2012 (which I'd forgotten about) and most tellingly he's on my CQ team. The quicker Slagter might be a problem, but the distance might take care of him.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #329 on: April 15, 2014, 15:56 »
    What odds S Clarke re LBL?
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