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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #330 on: April 15, 2014, 21:39 »
What odds S Clarke re LBL?

501 with PP.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #331 on: April 16, 2014, 11:15 »
    Yates does ride after all.  :D

    I'm not so sure about Bardet - he's more on my LBL radar, but I like the Honeybadger pick at 201ew with PP - in form, did well at the Worlds in 2012 (which I'd forgotten about) and most tellingly he's on my CQ team. The quicker Slagter might be a problem, but the distance might take care of him.

    Navardauskas is definitely quicker in a flat sprint, but if Cauberg is brutal then he will struggle to recover in time.

    Yates over Tony G looks pretty good at the odds, like quite a few dogs here actually in what is always a hard one to pick form and you can get weird groups forming towards the end. Taken a range of crap EW at 51 or greater.



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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #332 on: April 16, 2014, 11:49 »
    yeh, I also think Navardauskas is quicker, still won a bunch sprint in Switzerland last year

    took Martens @>100, was already 10th and 11th in the old Amstel, crashed last year, so only 30th, but on paper this new course should suit him better.
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #333 on: April 18, 2014, 14:38 »
    Rebellin 101 ;)
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #334 on: April 18, 2014, 15:39 »
    I've taken EBH at 101ew with Bet365. Drifted as far he's going to I reckon. Usual sort of problems with backing him, but I keep on kidding myself that this time it's going to be different. The slight course change might help him a bit and he doesn't have the pressure of being a favourite of any sort.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #335 on: April 18, 2014, 15:43 »
    yes, I agree. And don't forget he was 2nd in the worlds
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #336 on: April 19, 2014, 10:58 »
    Pick an alien time, Gautier @ 251. I think Voeckler saves himself for La Doyenne.
    .
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #337 on: April 21, 2014, 18:50 »
    GdT GC

    I see this as pretty open. None of the really big names here and not many riders coming into this in form. Could be some interesting, uncontrolled racing.

    Machado 401ew
    Pirazzi 401ew

    Both with PP. Konig is just coming back from injury, so Machado should be Netapp's guy for the GC. Inconsistent, but showed in CI he can hang in there with the second tier guys. Bardiani have several options - Bongiorno could go well, but three tough days in a row might be too much for him. Pirazzi looks the better option - 7th last year and feels confident about his chances.

    FW

    Still not sure if he's taking part, but I asked PP for a price on Arredondo. Taken him at 101ew. This is the race he wants and what he thinks is the race best suited to him. Even if he does fly in late, you'd think the nature of the course and how it usually pans out will mean this will be less of a disadvantage than elsewhere.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #338 on: April 21, 2014, 19:51 »
    to be honest I don't really think it makes a difference whether Machado is leading the team or not. But, yeh, at 400-1...

    what about the TTT? Was thinking about BMC, solid team, and Movistar might suffer from having so wait for Fuji. Rusvelo was another team I was thinking about, but not really worth it at 15-1 or something like that
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #339 on: April 21, 2014, 20:29 »
    BMC could go well, drifted out to 13 on Bet365. It's a difficult one to predict though, all of the teams have weak links or weak leaders they have to drag along - BMC might be the exception, but Dowsett + Malori are probably still stronger. Reckon I'll give the entire stage a miss.

    Though having said that I see PP have priced the stage H2Hs.  :P

    Netapp v Rusvelo 3.2

    You could be right about Rusvelo going well (was their Coppi e Bartali performace a result of them getting the advantage of dry weather or did they ride in the rain too?), but 3.2 is taking things too far I feel.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #340 on: April 21, 2014, 20:39 »
    yeh, Dowsett & Malori are stronger, but not sure what to expect from Dayer and all Visconti has done since returning from injury is DNF'ing races

    Not sure when exactly there was rain in Coppi e Bartali, but Rusvelo started early, yep. Need to have a closer look at Netapp's team first...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #341 on: April 22, 2014, 08:48 »
    Maybe NetApp top3 too.

    Astana @ 26 is ok.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #342 on: April 22, 2014, 08:52 »
    really? I don't know about Netapp, had a look at the team, and to be honest most of them are pretty useless for a TTT

    when they came 15th in the Tirreno TTT they had a better team than this one
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #343 on: April 22, 2014, 08:55 »
    You're not wrong, but more often than not they punch well above their weight in TTTs.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #344 on: April 22, 2014, 09:00 »
    yeh, they do, but usually they have one of their stronger guys like Barta or Voss in the team then

    don't get me wrong, I'd neither back Rusvelo to beat them at 1.4x, I remember I backed them last year for the Trentino timetrial and somehow they finished a minute down then, but Netapp...don't really know, can't see them that strong here
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #345 on: April 22, 2014, 09:12 »
    took Androni to beat Ag2R at ~2,8, Caja Rural to beat CCC at ~2,5 and Movistar not to win at ~2,5 btw

    14th, 20th, 18th, 15th and 20th are Ag2R's results since Pozzovivo joined them, mostly with more or less similar teams as here, in the best one there even was Peraud. Androni usually puts together a solid performance, last year they have also beaten Ag2R in both meetings (Trentino & Giro). Godoy is not a bad addition as well.

    I don't really know most of the CCC guys, but they don't have a GC rider anyway and Caja Rural has two decent guys with Lulu and Fraile.

    Movistar, just can't see them as that much of a favorite, Malori and Dowsett are strong of course, but basically it's a 3 1/2 men team (those two, Capecchi + Szmyd)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #346 on: April 22, 2014, 09:24 »
    Arredondo on his way to FW.  :)

    Spilak's confirmed now as well for the TdF. Still available at 601 with Bet365.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #347 on: April 22, 2014, 09:35 »
    I don't really know most of the CCC guys, but they don't have a GC rider anyway and Caja Rural has two decent guys with Lulu and Fraile.

    that's what it said just two days ago at least, when they sent out a press release that said "Luis Leon Sanchez joins Giro del Trentino". Can't see him on the start list now, not sure if that's just a mistake or not
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #348 on: April 22, 2014, 12:04 »
    interesting thing about Rusvelo is that 5 of their guys were still racing in Russia two days ago. I did have a look, and it's like a ~10 hour flight to Italy on from there. According to Zakarin's twitter they already arrived yesterday morning, so that's not any later than the other teams then, but they might still lack some freshnes
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #349 on: April 22, 2014, 15:23 »
    so, BMC won, not Movistar, that's good. Super poor performance by Caja Rural and especially Androni though - Ag2R as bad as expected, but Androni even worse

    thanks for Netapp, took me a while to get convinced...

    both 6 men teams (Sky and Colombia) would have won their H2H @~4 or something like that...
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #350 on: April 22, 2014, 22:59 »
    Yeh I was also on Androni, CJR and Neri.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #351 on: April 22, 2014, 23:05 »
    Formolo and Firsanov ftw.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #352 on: April 22, 2014, 23:06 »
    took Poels top 3 for tomorrow, Kwiatkowski might be the leader, but what kind of work is Poels supposed to do?! Surely nothing before hitting the final kilometer, and I think he is just too good to be at 9-1 or something like that

    will also take Vanendert if odds keep rising, sore knee blablabla

    h2hs mostly look like a gamble to me

    Post Merge: April 22, 2014, 23:10
    ahh, Firsanov  :D

    took Landa to beat Locatelli for that one, at 2.3 or something like that. Locatelli migh storm the mountains out of nowhere again to disappear afterwards like last year, but I think it's more likely he doesn't
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #353 on: April 23, 2014, 00:01 »
    Yeah i took jelle already when he was 23-1. Only 40p, but this is his favourite race and he is on form.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #354 on: April 23, 2014, 10:00 »
    Blah missed FW, will spew if the Dutchies top3.

    What was Pozzovivo paying for the Trentino GC win? That gap is meaningless on Bondone.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #355 on: April 23, 2014, 10:05 »
    don't think there were any major changes, still below 3 I think

    poels is still available @9 at betfair
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #356 on: April 23, 2014, 11:43 »
    This is one stupid law where we beat you, can't bet online "in-play", can never be bothered phoning them. 
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #357 on: April 23, 2014, 13:57 »
    Duarte can actually win this, got him at 67. Taking 201 for the Giro too.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #358 on: April 23, 2014, 14:46 »
    poels not strong enough, but Landa 5 minutes ahead or something like that
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #359 on: April 23, 2014, 21:00 »
    Arredondo got the old heart beating. There were a couple of occasions I thought he was gonna hit the afterburners, but it wasn't to be - maybe next year, but I bet he won't be at 101 then. Still got my bet for him at LBL, but not sure how that suits him.

    Hail mary for GdT tomorrow. Huzarski 401ew with PP.
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