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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #360 on: April 23, 2014, 21:05 »
yeh, Huzarski is usually quite good on steep stuff, also finished top 3 in that giro stage in that lovely town 2 or 3 years ago (the final climb was shorter back then though)

here is hope for people to put money on Aru so that I can back Anton to beat him at decent odds, if there's one thing he is still good at, it's a finish like this...
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #361 on: April 25, 2014, 08:21 »
    that one went perfectly, Anton drifted from 2,1 to 2,8 and still won :)

    took Lagutin to beat Finetto for today at ~2,2 or something like that. Bondone surely is two numbers too big for Finetto, can't see him limiting his losses again on a climb like this. Lagutin came Top 10 on the Angliru and so on in his best times - eventhough he propably isn't that good anymore, he should still be the favorite I think.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #362 on: April 25, 2014, 12:39 »
    took Lagutin to beat Finetto for today at ~2,2 or something like that. Bondone surely is two numbers too big for Finetto, can't see him limiting his losses again on a climb like this. Lagutin came Top 10 on the Angliru and so on in his best times - eventhough he propably isn't that good anymore, he should still be the favorite I think.
    Sounds good. Anyone who climbs the Stelvio twice in one day for training shouldn't be sniffed at. ;)
    Finetto is more of a "typical Italian" in my book, anyway, for hilly one-day races with short climbs, but not necessarily the longer ones.
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #363 on: April 25, 2014, 14:54 »
    I've got the horrible feeling that Tiago has lost out on a podium by seconds.

    Six seconds.  :we all gonna die:
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #364 on: April 25, 2014, 15:59 »
    yeh, too bad, that was close

    Lagutin ~half a minute ahead btw, Finetto still way better than I expected though, 19th and 20th
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #365 on: April 25, 2014, 17:05 »
    Probably made a mistake with the tenner I put on scarponi to beat Evans at the giro, 2 months ago :angel
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #366 on: April 25, 2014, 18:21 »
    I still think it's a decent bet Hitch, but you'd no doubt get better odds now.

    Will be interesting to see if we get GC markets for Turkey. The sprinters field may be top class, but the climbers field sure isn't.

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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #367 on: April 26, 2014, 05:44 »
    I've got the horrible feeling that Tiago has lost out on a podium by seconds.

    Six seconds.  :we all gonna die:

    Could be worse ;)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #368 on: April 26, 2014, 14:46 »
    Kudus favorite to win Turkey at 2-1 with skybet :fp

    I didn't even have a look at the profiles yet, might have to if any proper bookies turn up with this as well
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #369 on: April 26, 2014, 15:16 »
    Finally someone realises Merhawi's potential. :D
    Although odds-on favourite is a bit much. I'd put Yates (both of them), Dyachenko, Bagot, Cobo, Rebellin, Durasek and Parra above him; although I won't rule it out that he can snatch a very good result. I just don't count on it.

    Also, Pello Bilbao at 16-1. Isn't he sort of a sprinter?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #370 on: April 26, 2014, 15:45 »
    not really a sprinter, no real climber either though

    to be honest I think this is some kind of a must win for Cobo, Torku might be a bit more careful now but if he is not going to fight for the win here he should just retire immediately
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #371 on: April 28, 2014, 20:06 »
    Speaking of which - Cobo 15 with PP for stage 3. Just for fun.

    Also a couple of quickies for the Romandie prologue.

    Grivko 401ew with PP
    Teabag v Dennis 2.2 with Bet365

    Weather could play a part tomorrow, so worthwhile having a punt with the early starting Teabag over the late starting Dennis.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #372 on: April 28, 2014, 20:12 »
    yeh, TJ is the better prologue rider anyway I think. Dennis had some good results but mostly against poor competition

    was hoping for big odds on Kittel, ~5km is about on the edge between sprinters and time trial guys
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #373 on: April 29, 2014, 21:16 »
    Teabag blows it on the first corner.  :D

    Romandie Stage 1

    Velits 151ew with Bet365

    Not sure how the contracted stage will effect things, but with TJ out of the GC you'd think BMC would be stage hunting. According to cyclingquotes (trust them at your peril) the final climb is 18km at 3%, but that includes a downhill section - so the first 9km averages 5% and the final 2km at 5.5% (looks a twisty descent too, but no google street view to check it's technicality). If that's enough to dislodge some of the sprinters then someone like Velits (amongst others) could have a chance.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #374 on: April 30, 2014, 23:01 »
    I took Kittel for tomorrow, usually it's one day fast, one day slow (especially with the big stage to come on friday). And those climbs aren't that hard anyway, can see good value in odds around ~4,5
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  • froome19

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #375 on: April 30, 2014, 23:10 »
    What are the odds on Hesjedal at the Giro?
    Whatever they are I would take them any day...
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #376 on: May 01, 2014, 09:18 »
    Hesjedal is available at 81 with PP which seems to be the biggest price (34 lowest).

    I'd taken the Kittel v Mezgec H2H at 2.75, but probably would have been better just going for the outright win for Marcel. As you say the climbs don't seem that tough.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #377 on: May 02, 2014, 21:49 »
    no idea how Kittel managed to get dropped on that stage...

    took Roux at 150-1 for tomorrow. Lost contact due to a crash in front of him on stage 1, didn't manage to get into a good position for the sprint on stage 2 - but generally he seems to be in quite good shape (he was in the ardennes classics at least). That circuit tomorrow isn't that easy, could be a reduced bunch sprint again - or a breakaway
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #378 on: May 03, 2014, 16:58 »
    Unlucky, close one today.

    Shame TdG was a DNF. Was hoping we might get a nice price on him tomorrow.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #379 on: May 03, 2014, 16:59 »
    yeh, at least he didn't win the sprint anyway...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #380 on: May 03, 2014, 20:48 »
    Romandie TT

    Couple of top-3 picks with Bet365. Zoidl at 34 and Pinot at 101. Tomorrow's hill isn't long, but the TT is pretty short in itself, so some climbing ability is needed I reckon.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #381 on: May 03, 2014, 21:09 »
    mmmh, maybe, shouldn't that play into Froome's (or maybe even Dennis'/Castroviejo's) hands as well then? I am not entirely sure myself yet, but last year's Romandie timetrial was pretty much flat, over a similar distance, and Martin won by ~half a minute. Those steep ~1,5-2km could be enough to make up that deficit.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #382 on: May 03, 2014, 22:01 »
    Most TT courses are going to play into Froome's hands.  :P

    I guess my poorly though out point was that the climb and short overall distance would rule out the Tufts, Sergents etc and keep the gaps relatively small. Maybe enough so that form would have nearly as much effect as outright TT ability or whatever you want to call it. Of course if it is very windy you'd think that the advantage would lean back to the TT experts, so who knows.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #383 on: May 04, 2014, 19:56 »
    Whoops. Wrong about Sergent, but not that far off with Zoidl/Pinot.  :P

    Can't find a profile other than for the last 5km, but I'm assuming the first stage of 4 Jours will be a sprint of some form. Line-ups aren't finalized, but TVA at 201ew with PP seems a reasonable pick (unless they go with KvB) - second behind Hooters today at GP de la Somme.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #384 on: May 05, 2014, 12:20 »
    It's completely flat but the weather looks pretty sh*thouse, wet and 20mph winds. Let's take some hard asses who aren't bad in a finish. Only really the place in play as very hard to see Demare losing in any scenario.

    Jempy @ 176
    Mondory @ 226
    Deflosse @ 376
    Senechal @ 376

    Not sure how they had TvA @ 201...

    No odds for my boy Flavien who was devastating in the terrible conditions a couple of weeks ago :(
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #385 on: May 05, 2014, 19:34 »
    Bet365 have their Giro markets up. Get 'em while they're hot!
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #386 on: May 05, 2014, 19:50 »
    grmpf, I was hoping for them not to recognize the rule changes...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #387 on: May 05, 2014, 20:04 »
    PP might not know yet.  ;)

    A few quickies.

    KOM

    Rolland v Pirazzi 4.0

    Just like last year, Pirazzi "says" he's going for the GC this time. Of course he ended up going for the KoM instead last year, but it's such a tough comp to predict and both have been KoM chasers in the past that 4 feels too big no matter who the climbers are.

    Points

    Purito v Quintana 2.1

    Don't know who'll win the GC, but you'd think Purito's last km sprint would give him the edge in points accumulation over the entire race.

    Top 10

    Herrada 51

    Movistar all for Quintana, but that doesn't preclude someone else from their team getting a decent GC position. He hasn't show much this year, but has some good results from last year.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #388 on: May 05, 2014, 20:11 »
    Points

    Purito v Quintana 2.1

    Don't know who'll win the GC, but you'd think Purito's last km sprint would give him the edge in points accumulation over the entire race.

    yeh, and a 9th on a sprint stage gives more points than winning a mountain top finish. So if some of those sprint stages for whatever reason end up to be more selective Purito could gain massive points
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #389 on: May 06, 2014, 09:14 »
    Just thinking about the points jersey. Will Bouhanni be going all the way to Trieste? Had a bit of a google and most of what I find just says they're after a sprint win and says nothing about whether he'll finish or not. I'd have him as quite similar to Viviani if there was a good chance he was going to finish, but the bookies have him as 11 in comparison to EV at 2.5.

    Any extra info anyone can add?
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