collapse


Arb

  • Road Captain
  • Country: an
  • Posts: 2364
  • Liked: 571
Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #420 on: May 18, 2014, 08:58 »
lol why was my Basso bet twice as big as my Kiserlovski one :o
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #421 on: May 18, 2014, 14:36 »
    Break could still take it, but a couple of big priced micros in case it all comes back.

    Hesjedal 501ew
    Poels 501ew

    Both in the finishing group yesterday and both with a decent kick/sprint.

  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #422 on: May 19, 2014, 15:43 »
    took a small one for tomorrow, Paolini e/w at 350-1 (also available @500-1 at paddy's)

    will not be easy to get rid of the sprinters, but Paolini is one of the few riders I can see doing it.
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #423 on: May 19, 2014, 15:55 »
    I like that one. I had an eye on him for the stage after, but he probably won't be at such an attractive price for that. I'll have a cogitate on it.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #424 on: May 19, 2014, 16:07 »
    I like that one. I had an eye on him for the stage after

    yeh, maybe, but Naso di Gatto could turn out to be too hard for him, ~7km at 8% average, that's way harder than Sella di Catona last year - and even then there were barely any non-gc guys left.

    but it depends on how they race of course, could be everything from a 15-men to a 50-men sprint...
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #425 on: May 19, 2014, 16:23 »
    Ah yeah, I was thinking of him winning from the break actually for that stage, but with those percentages that could be tough anyway. Guess I'll have to wait and see what the prices are.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #426 on: May 20, 2014, 19:03 »
    He was thinking about it today. He's at 19 for tomorrow's stage unfortunately, so I'll give him another miss.

    Stage 11

    Santa 151 with PP

    I think any top 10 GC hopes Santa had are down the drain. 10+ mins in arrears and he's only going to lose more - starting with the TT on Thursday. So why not go for a stage win tomorrow.
  • ReplyReply

  • The Hitch

    • Winner 2012 Tour de France prediction game
    • Road Captain
    • Country: pl
    • Posts: 2473
    • Liked: 841
    • Awards: 2013 Annual Prediction Game2013 CQ Ranking Vuelta Game Post of the Year 2013Race Preview of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #427 on: May 21, 2014, 02:42 »
    He was thinking about it today. He's at 19 for tomorrow's stage unfortunately, so I'll give him another miss.

    Stage 11

    Santa 151 with PP

    I think any top 10 GC hopes Santa had are down the drain. 10+ mins in arrears and he's only going to lose more - starting with the TT on Thursday. So why not go for a stage win tomorrow.
    GC top 10? Santa nickname?

    Are you by any chance mixing up political exile Mauro Santamborggio (aka Santa), with his former teammate journeyman puncheur Ivan Santarmoita (aka Santino) ;)
  • ReplyReply
  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #428 on: May 21, 2014, 09:13 »
    Hehe. I didn't think he'd have a chance either, but that's what Ogre said pre-Giro were his aims - taking positive thinking a bit too far possibly.
  • ReplyReply

  • Tuart

    • Pobblebonk
    • Road Captain
    • Country: tl
    • Posts: 2046
    • Liked: 489
    • Awards: Velogames Giro Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #429 on: May 21, 2014, 09:16 »
    I think the name can easily refer to Santamorita now since he's the only active "Santa" now so there's no need for a distinction.
  • ReplyReply
  • 2014 Velorooms Giro d'Italia Velogames Winner

    search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #430 on: May 21, 2014, 09:19 »
    not that they differ so much, regarding their natural climbing qualities...
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #431 on: May 21, 2014, 21:37 »
    Getting nervous about Kiserlovski tomorrow. Big test.

    TT Top 3 - both with PP

    Gretsch 23
    Aru 101

    Just for interest. One earlyish starter and a late one in case the weather plays tricks.

  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #432 on: May 21, 2014, 21:47 »
    has Aru's tt improved? Was thinking about him to beat Majka, managed to do so in the Giro last year already. But then I saw Majka had a decent one in the Vuelta for whatever reason...
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #433 on: May 21, 2014, 22:03 »
    Aru's a shot in the dark really as he hasn't done a TT this year. You'd imagine there would be some general improvement though just cause he's a year older and was supposed to have been working on it over the winter. He seems in decent nick, the course looks quite tough and the field doesn't look super strong. So a top 10 could be on the cards (top 3 is just wishful thinking on my part).

    He could be a good H2H against Majka - they seem pretty even to me.
  • ReplyReply

  • The Hitch

    • Winner 2012 Tour de France prediction game
    • Road Captain
    • Country: pl
    • Posts: 2473
    • Liked: 841
    • Awards: 2013 Annual Prediction Game2013 CQ Ranking Vuelta Game Post of the Year 2013Race Preview of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #434 on: May 21, 2014, 22:33 »
    Anyone think Quintana worth a shot 16-1 for podium? He did really well in a pan flat tt in tirreno. This one isn't mountain but hilly enough. Hills also may rule out some tt specialists from trying. Nairo is on peak for the race unlike most and I can see him beating all gc contenders.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2364
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #435 on: May 22, 2014, 09:01 »
    Yeh I took Aru there without really looking. Actually took 5 big dogs this morning on not much more but gut.

    Paddy have EW on so given the lack of riders resembling a specialist a couple of roughies may not be without a chance for a place.

    Quintana @ 101 (MASSIVE ENGINE!!!!)

    Hmm, that will do. Unless I go with my usual Basso bet...
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #436 on: May 22, 2014, 09:26 »

    TT Top 3 - both with PP

    Gretsch 23
    Aru 101


    Both with Bet365 obviously and not PP. :fp

    Quintana does seem to be talking down his chances in general, but on the other hand he's done a couple of decent TTs this year on flat courses, so who knows how he'll go on a course a bit more suited to him.

    http://www.biciciclismo.com/cas/site/noticias-ficha.asp?id=71898

    Quote
    Just after crossing the finish line of Savona, Quintana admitted his doubts by dragging the aftermath of the fall of the sixth stage and an unwelcome cold. "I do not quite feel right. The idea was that I was recovering, but I have not felt much improvement,"

  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #437 on: May 23, 2014, 17:49 »
    Stage 14

    Weening 201 with PP

    Could be very tough if Arredondo is also in the break, but you never know.

    Post Merge: May 23, 2014, 18:57
    "Pieter Weening also had a bit of a stomach problem. I think we might be in survival mode tomorrow"

    Doh!
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 23, 2014, 18:57 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #438 on: May 24, 2014, 16:39 »
    I'm enjoying this money back offer with PP.

    I hope they have the same offer at the Vuelta. Money back on every uphill finish.  ;)
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #439 on: May 24, 2014, 18:34 »
    Stage 15

    Pirazzi v Arredondo 2.75 with PP

    Still not sure if Arredondo is ill or not, but if he was 100% you think he would have been in the break today for the KoM points, and his turn on the front for Kiserlovski at the base of the final climb was very short-lived. Maybe a Bardiani hat-trick is on the cards.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #440 on: May 24, 2014, 23:26 »
    Duarte to win @~40 (@67 with pp) for tomorrow

    Montecampione is his training climb, he already said before the Giro that it was his target to win tomorrow.

    To be honest I can't really see many scenarios for it to happen - but I'd kick myself if it happens and I am not on there...

    edit: meh, conde mentioned it in his preview as well, so he is jinxed now ;)
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 24, 2014, 23:48 by search »

    search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #441 on: May 25, 2014, 16:08 »
    grmpf  :angry
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #442 on: May 25, 2014, 16:20 »
    Unlucky. You're not able to bet anywhere with ew?

    Looks like Pirazzi just beat Arredondo, though Trek say that yesterday they ordered Arredondo to not go in the break, so my reasoning was maybe off a little bit.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #443 on: May 25, 2014, 16:27 »
    only when I play a parley bet with horse racing on betfair sportsbook - and I have lost too many of those random favorite horse bets recently to do that regularly ;)

    and Duarte Top 3 was only at ~5 this morning with betfair, that was too short I think. Lets just blame Conde...
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #444 on: May 26, 2014, 18:28 »
    Yeah of course, I'd forgotten about those horses.

    Stage 16

    Deignan 126 with PP

    Seems to be finally finding his climbing legs. It's really a bet for the break, but as we saw on Sunday he was right up there on the final climb - so it almost feels like he has two chances to be involved (well, one and a bit chances if we're being realistic).
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #445 on: May 27, 2014, 20:12 »
    Stage 17

    Santa 151 with Bet365

    Ogres down to three riders. A sprint finish is no use to them tomorrow, so might as well pick one of them for the break and hope they benefit from the up and down nature of the profile.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11278
    • Liked: 12111
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #446 on: May 27, 2014, 20:14 »
    yeh, was my 1st thought for tomorrow as well. Him and Oss

    edit: also :firemew
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #447 on: May 28, 2014, 19:37 »
    Santa saving himself for another day obviously.

    Stage 18

    Kelderman v Majka 2.25 with PP

    Kelderman has proved me wrong this Giro (I'd never been convinced of his climbing on big mountains) and leads Majka 4-1 on the H2Hs on MTF finishes so far. Only finished a bit behind on Montecampione.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #448 on: May 29, 2014, 20:35 »
    Maybe I was right about Wilco after all.  :lol

    Giro TT

    Pozzovivo v Aru 2.1 with Bet365

    If arbs are your thing, Aru is available in the same H2H on PP at 2.2, but I'll just stick with stinky.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7789
    • Liked: 7238
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #449 on: May 30, 2014, 18:47 »
    Stage 20

    Anacona 201
    Anton 201

    Both with PP. I can't really see a break making it, but what the hey. Winner seems to be riding into a bit of late Giro form and Anton has previous on Zoncolan though it feels a long time ago.
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top