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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #450 on: May 31, 2014, 18:26 »
Colbrelli top-3 at 34 with Bet365 for tomorrow's stage. Not sure how tough that little bump is tomorrow, but people's legs should be tired at the end of the week we've had. Maybe it could be Sonny's day.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #451 on: May 31, 2014, 18:28 »
    yeh, could be a fun stage, crit style, with a bumpy parcours



    looks good for Sonny.
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #452 on: June 08, 2014, 09:42 »
    Think I had one ante-post winner from the Giro.  :lol

    Dauphine TT

    Thomas v Kwiatkowski 2.5 with PP
    TJVG v Froome 2.62 with Bet365

    Rather annoyed with both PP and Bet365 as I asked them both for a price for Brandle and neither of them could be bothered to price him up.

    Anyway I'll hope from a betting point of view that Kwiatkowski is a bit rusty after a month off, Thomas can continue his form from the Bayern Rundfahrt and that Teabag can get past the first corner without crashing.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #453 on: June 08, 2014, 19:27 »
    One winner, one loser.

    Dauphine Stage 2

    TJVG v Talansky 2.0 with Bet365
    Stetina v Trofimov 2.0 with Bet365
    Voeckler v Cunego 2.2 with Bet365
    Kelderman v Hesjedal 2.1 with PP

    Talansky did better in the TT, but TJVG admits he was too cautious in the corners - should be the favourite on the climbs. Trofimov is suffering from a late arrival in France (visa issues again). Kelderman was looking stronger than Ryder at the end of the Giro and beat him today by 13 seconds.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #454 on: June 09, 2014, 08:15 »
    First stage uphill finish last year remember...

    Gautier @ 201


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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #455 on: June 09, 2014, 16:02 »
    That's more like it. Just let down by TJVG again. He's close to getting a black mark against his name.

    Stage 3

    Tsatevich 201ew with PP

    Not much of a sprinter, but this isn't much of a sprinting field.

    Btw anyone having any World Cup bets?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #456 on: June 10, 2014, 17:15 »
    PP are early with their TdS odds.

    Dennis 67ew
    Izagirre 81ew

    Dropping under the 100 mark for once!!! Haven't looked at the course that much in detail, but two TTs compared to one proper MTF? I think both should be considered in the top 5 TTing GC contenders here, so probably should be a bit shorter.

    Edit - make that 2 MTFs, but the point still stands (I hope  :P).
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  • « Last Edit: June 10, 2014, 17:33 by Leadbelly »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #457 on: June 10, 2014, 17:39 »
    Edit - make that 2 MTFs, but the point still stands (I hope  :P).

    yeh, Verbier and Sees-Fee


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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #458 on: June 10, 2014, 18:21 »
    Yeah. It shows the in-depth research I do - went through the stages on PCS and got to the Verbier one and thought that was it, just the eight stages.  :D

    Bit less confident on them now, but I reckon if they can stick with the Wiggins pace on the climbs they should be there or there abouts.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #459 on: June 11, 2014, 12:56 »
    I'd already put a mental black mark against TJVG and now it's kind of being confirmed.  Talansky has certainly seemed the more promising next-gen US GC contender.

    Considering how close Rohan Dennis was to Wiggins those odds are fantastic for the e/w, need to look at those later.

    Likely contenders? Wiggins, Kreuziger, Rui Costa, Izagirre, perhaps Kolobnev(?), Betancur might have work permit issues, Evans might still be cooked from the Giro (though Kelderman has kept his form up - but he is much younger), Mollema, Pinot (would usually suffer in the TTs), Dennis.  Anyone else?  Taking it as read that Wiggins and Kreuziger would make the podium, Dennis is in with a good shout surely.

    edit - oh yeah, Slagter too.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #460 on: June 11, 2014, 14:00 »
    Anyone else?

    Frank or Wyss probably for IAM (whoever of them is not doing the Tour)
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #461 on: June 11, 2014, 14:50 »
    fwiw Haneo will be sky leader

    Wiggo is track fat at the moment  ;)
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #462 on: June 11, 2014, 14:55 »
    fwiw Haneo will be sky leader

    Wiggo is track fat at the moment  ;)

    Henao still could be leader, but Wiggins isn't doing track at the Commonwealth Games (so if he's fat, it's just fat fat and not track fat  :P)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/27791905
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #463 on: June 11, 2014, 14:56 »
    Henao still could be leader, but Wiggins isn't doing track at the Commonwealth Games (so if he's fat, it's just fat fat and not track fat  :P)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/commonwealth-games/27791905

    rumor is if he does not get named TDF team he is riding track as well
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #464 on: June 11, 2014, 15:03 »
    Is that realistic though? We'd have to ask MV or someone who knows track, but it doesn't seem very feasible to me that he could just swap back to track and with ~one month's practice suddenly be good enough.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #465 on: June 11, 2014, 15:06 »
    Is that realistic though? We'd have to ask MV or someone who knows track, but it doesn't seem very feasible to me that he could just swap back to track and with ~one month's practice suddenly be good enough.

    I think the reason is next year and 2016, he wants to know how long it take to track fat.

    Then he can say to the new team look you will have angry wiggo going to show those :censoreds at Sky they fliped up for x period, then I need y period to get track fat and win some gold for the mother country and then get drunk for the rest of my contract?

    Sound bonza geezer ?

    here is my john handcock and lets go show em

    well that is what I am thinking and some of the rumors saying and some interviews
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #466 on: June 11, 2014, 20:15 »
     :disapointed Dennis is in to 25s.  Still some value there.  Izagirre still very long though.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #467 on: June 12, 2014, 16:58 »

    Btw anyone having any World Cup bets?

    Well I'll have one or two just to keep things interesting with micro stakes.

    Italy to finish bottom of grp at 15 - all games in the north
    Spain to finish bottom of grp at 41 - campaign could be over before their easier third game

    and a raft of overs bets for the group stages

    Spoiler (hover to show)






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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #468 on: June 13, 2014, 18:53 »
    TdS TT

    Cancellara v Wiggins 3.25 with Bet365

    Cancellara was nowhere in the TT at Bayern Rundfahrt and had his high speed crash in training the other week, but I still feel he has the edge on Wiggins over short distances. Factor in the possibility of rain/damp and the prices should be closer imo.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #469 on: June 15, 2014, 20:11 »
    TdS Stage 3

    Moreno 101ew with Bet365

    Three Movistar names spring to mind for tomorrow's stage. I'm hoping the finish is just too tough for Rojas, but not tough enough for Izagirre and the other GC boys to come out and play, so maybe the finish is just right for Javier (aka Goldilocks).

    Post Merge: June 16, 2014, 09:29
    Just a quickie as I don't have much time - Mathias Frank 151ew with PP. In case it is more of a GC day and the Sagan/Albasini types don't make it (knowing my luck the break will probably win).
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  • « Last Edit: June 16, 2014, 09:30 by Leadbelly »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #470 on: June 16, 2014, 10:22 »
    what about Schurter? Seems to have a decent kick, and was one of the first to react to Kreuziger's attack on the climb yesterday
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #471 on: June 16, 2014, 10:41 »
    Could be a good one. Maybe the Ogres will have Albasini (lost big time deliberately yesterday?) in the break and Schurter as the guy to contest a grp finish.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #472 on: June 17, 2014, 10:02 »
    Anyone traded on their Bertie Tour bet yet?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #473 on: June 17, 2014, 12:42 »
    no, but I don't have "enough" on it anyway, and only at 10
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #474 on: June 17, 2014, 20:39 »
    TdS Stage 5

    Degenkolb v Cavendish 3.75
    Kristoff v Sagan 2.25

    Kristoff got badly boxed in today, he even said himself he had more to give, but the gap never opened up. Cavendish should be favourite for the other H2H, but even though Degenkolb has never beaten him the prices I feel should be closer. He came mighty close on two occasions to beating him in California and I don't think his injuries from today's crash extend to more than tyre tracks on his arse (see his twitter for more details - view at your own peril though).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #475 on: June 20, 2014, 17:02 »
    Even without the crash I think Degenkolb would have beaten Cavendish.

    TdS Stage 8

    Slagter 81ew
    Izagirre 151ew
    Evans 151ew

    Some PP classics. After his Giro tailing off and his poor prologue I was writing Evans off straight away, but a pretty good TT today by his standards makes me feel he might have a chance tomorrow. Similar to Slagter, as long as it's not raced super fast right from the bottom he should be there or there abouts come the final and both have decent kicks.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #476 on: June 20, 2014, 20:29 »
    obviously not available with the bookies I can use :P

    ...so I took Acevedo and the self-appointed third best climber in this race, Christophe Riblon, at 81 each.

    both have to attack before the flat part with 2k to go, but I think they can, especially Acevedo. Those first 8km of the climb should suit him.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #477 on: June 22, 2014, 09:12 »
    no, but I don't have "enough" on it anyway, and only at 10

    Yeh, I'm actually getting quietly confident now. Top3 is an ok return anyway.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #478 on: June 22, 2014, 15:21 »
    Greipel won again today, so I guess it's time to back him to win green @~15

    not sure if he can beat Sagan, but I don't think he is any worse than Cav and Kittel, surely more suited to the hilly stages, and also to the cobbled one. And I am not totally convinced by Sagan this year
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #479 on: June 22, 2014, 16:34 »
    Greipel won again today, so I guess it's time to back him to win green @~15

    not sure if he can beat Sagan, but I don't think he is any worse than Cav and Kittel, surely more suited to the hilly stages, and also to the cobbled one. And I am not totally convinced by Sagan this year
    Question from an absolute betting noob: How much do you bet in a typical case (like Greipel to win #vert)?
    I don't think I'll get into it myself - I wouldn't know when to stop - but I'm interested in the thoughts and mechanics behind it.
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