collapse


search

  • World Champion
  • *
  • Country: de
  • Posts: 11514
  • Liked: 12584
  • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #480 on: June 22, 2014, 17:29 »
Question from an absolute betting noob: How much do you bet in a typical case (like Greipel to win #vert)?

this is a 01/10 :P

so 10% of the the maximum stake I generally place on a single bet. I usually very seldom exceed 4 or 5/10 on cycling bets though, so this is a reasonably big bet, regarding the odds.

that is probably not exactly what you were asking for, but I usually do not talk about it moneywise - and in some cases also better don't think about it that way
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11514
    • Liked: 12584
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #481 on: June 22, 2014, 21:21 »
    Well I'll have one or two just to keep things interesting with micro stakes.

    Italy to finish bottom of grp at 15 - all games in the north
    Spain to finish bottom of grp at 41 - campaign could be over before their easier third game

    and a raft of overs bets for the group stages

    Spoiler (hover to show)

    getting nervous already? ;)

    doesn't look too bad at the moment, 6 out of 10 still possible

    so you need...

    Quote
    • England to beat Costa Rica + Uruguay to beat Italy
    • Spain not to beat Australia

    • Columbia - Japan over
    • England - Costa Rica over
    • Switzerland - Honduras over
    • Germany - USA over

    Japan and Honduras are lacking a bit of firepower, but who knows. Sounds possible
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #482 on: June 22, 2014, 21:44 »
    Hehe, well I'm trying not to jinx it, but it would be kinda cool if one or two of them come in. The goals do seem to be drying up the past few days unfortunately, so we'll see what happens.

    It could be pretty embarrassing though if my "ten seconds thinking" football bets do better than my in depth "thirty seconds thinking" cycling bets.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11514
    • Liked: 12584
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #483 on: June 22, 2014, 21:48 »
    actually that's exactly what I am experiencing at the moment :P
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #484 on: June 24, 2014, 21:23 »
    Back to some cycling.

    TdF GC

    Fuglsang v Kreuziger 3.25 with Bet365

    If Bert is in yellow, then Kreuz could be doing a lot more intensive donkey work this year (he did donkey work last year too, but as it turned out he was probably stronger than Bert). Fair chance he'll have to sacrifice his personal ambitions either by saving himself after doing his work, or blowing up big style chasing down some break or other.

  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #485 on: June 25, 2014, 13:56 »
    Schlecks top10 looks ok.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #486 on: June 25, 2014, 14:08 »
    It will only be work on the MTF, and its more likely to be if Contador is trying to take time and he's forced to go hard early Popovych style.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11514
    • Liked: 12584
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #487 on: June 25, 2014, 14:18 »
    I'd take Zubeldia over Frandy I think
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #488 on: June 25, 2014, 14:21 »
    Oh ok didn't realise HAIMAR has had some sneaky top30s recently.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #489 on: June 26, 2014, 19:16 »
    Let down by the Germans. Tut tut.

    However the Swiss and the Colombians did the business at much better odds. :betting
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #490 on: June 29, 2014, 04:49 »
    Sagan @ 15 is pretty decent, even if he only gets a place it's a better than even return... Also Gerrans @ 101. Will look to hedge with Cav closer to the day.

    Anyone game for Barbie @ 250? :o
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #491 on: June 29, 2014, 05:01 »
    Maybe Fabs @ 150 too.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #492 on: July 04, 2014, 15:04 »
    TdF Stage 1

    Keukeleire 301ew with PP

    Not sure how the Ogres will play this now with Matthews out. Probably making sure that Gerrans gets as high a placing as possible, so he can maybe get yellow the day after, is the most likely forecast, but Jens could be a sprint option. Would need some chaos/crashes probably, but could be worth it at this big price.
  • ReplyReply

  • kevchenko13

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 110
    • Liked: 92
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #493 on: July 04, 2014, 15:12 »
    Maybe Fabs @ 150 too.

    Will Spartacus be on duty for Danny van Poppel?
  • ReplyReply

  • cj2002

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • Country: pt
    • Posts: 2893
    • Liked: 3256
    • Honorary President
    • Awards: Best avatar 2012
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #494 on: July 04, 2014, 15:25 »
    I've taken Valverde each way for the win at 15/1. Not because I think he will win, but because I think he will podium, and 1/3 of 15/1 is better than the 6/4 you get for Valverde to finish on the podium.

    I've also gone for Cav to win Green at 11/2. But to hedge my bets, I've gone for Sagan to beat Greipel in a Stage 1 match-up. I was tempted by Costa vs. Valverde, but decided that anything can happen that deep into a peloton.
  • ReplyReply
  • He shook his head sadly and told me that endemic drug use had compelled him to give up a promising career. "Even one small local race, prize was a salami, and I see doping!" - Tim Moore: Gironimo (Riding the Very Terrible 1914 Tour of Italy)

    Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #495 on: July 05, 2014, 09:41 »
    I reckon they do it for Gerrans today (even though expect the GC guys to drop him tomorrow) but it's still a good bet.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #496 on: July 06, 2014, 03:20 »
    Rogers @ 81, might sneak a third place.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #497 on: July 06, 2014, 03:21 »
    Pretty annoying sh*t yesterday but Sagan place more than covers, lucky I didn't get around to backing Cav, picked the others pretty well though. Gerrans looked pretty good for top3.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #498 on: July 06, 2014, 09:55 »
    I thought Canc was going to do it for you at one point, but the metres to go graphic just didn't tick down fast enough for him.
  • ReplyReply

  • kevchenko13

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 110
    • Liked: 92
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #499 on: July 07, 2014, 07:40 »
    One out of four so far for me.

    St.1 each ways on Danny vP and Greipel
    St.2 each ways on Valverde and Kwia

    Though at the odds quoted his third place did was to cover the Valverde bet.

    So today, just on the nose to win as it's a flat one, I have Kittel and Démare.  Kittel is odds on but I just feel like getting another win.  Hope Démare's arm is ok - heard he might have an injury(?) after I placed the bet.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #500 on: July 07, 2014, 17:12 »
    Vuelta prices are up on PP. Lots of big names competing, so some big-ish prices for outsiders.

    Nieve 201ew
    Arredondo 251ew
    Chaves 301ew

    Haven't looked at the course, but presuming the usual type of stages. Probably a year or two early for the Colombians. KoM and stages are more likely, but you never know how it will turn out.

    TdF Stage 5

    Valverde 201ew with PP

    Did surprisingly well on the cobbles earlier on in the season. Doesn't have the strongest of teams to help him out, but if we see something similar to 2010 he could be up there and he has the kick to be up there in a grp finish.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11514
    • Liked: 12584
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #501 on: July 08, 2014, 11:27 »
    considering this, I think Costa to beat Peraud @>2 is quite a good bet. Costa might be interested to finish high up to improve the position of Lampre's team car while Peraud shouldn't bother too much with Bardet being way better positioned anyway.

    And even if not, it should still be ~50:50 more or less
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #502 on: July 08, 2014, 19:01 »
    TdF Stage 5

    Terpstra v Chavanel 2.2 with PP
    Thomas v Roche 2.0 with PP

    Terpstra had his little crash today, but didn't seem injured or inconvenienced. Surely the PR champion should be favourite for most H2Hs? Chav got dropped very early on stage 2 - not sure of his form.

    The Thomas one I guess you have to factor in the abilities of Froome and Contador (about even I'd guess) and hopefully Thomas' superior exp and skills on the cobbles will give him the edge to avoid trouble of his own.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11514
    • Liked: 12584
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #503 on: July 09, 2014, 11:01 »
    considering this, I think Costa to beat Peraud @>2 is quite a good bet. Costa might be interested to finish high up to improve the position of Lampre's team car while Peraud shouldn't bother too much with Bardet being way better positioned anyway.

    And even if not, it should still be ~50:50 more or less

    that one is a loss

    Greipel is available at ~100 with betfair for today, sounds good I think. He did a couple of good races on the cobbles already
  • ReplyReply

  • kevchenko13

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 110
    • Liked: 92
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #504 on: July 09, 2014, 11:13 »
    I took a piece of the Valverde e/w 200/1 action; he's now come in to 50, so I guess others did too.   Also took a head to head, Talansky v Porte at 5/6.

    I've had small results the last three days now - Kwia e/w st.2, Kittel win st.3, Demare e/w st.4, though these barely cover the losing bet of the two each day!
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #505 on: July 09, 2014, 12:37 »
    Yeh I took Greipel. I like Degenkolb's chances but in these conditions don't see the point backing anyone <100.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #506 on: July 10, 2014, 18:55 »
    Couple of winners from stage 5, but maybe more by luck rather than judgement. Anything could have happened with those conditions.

    TdF Stage 7

    Oss 201ew with Bet365
    Jarrier 301 with PP

    Break could make it tomorrow. Benoit's just one of the riders I see at the highest price that may have a chance to get in the break. Oss could be either one for the break or, if it all comes back together, may be about for a reduced sprint. He said the other day after the sprint on stage 4 he would wait for a harder stage - this finish could give it.

    TdF KoM

    Voeckler v Rolland 4.0 with PP
    Valverde v Nibali 2.75 with PP

    Rolland slipping more time again today, which could be good for his KoM chances actually, but I believe he's been suffering a bit from a sore botty. Both have targeted KoM in the past, so anything could happen really in that H2H.

    Nibali's been looking the strongest so far, but then again we haven't climbed any mountains yet. Could be different once we hit those, and who knows what alliances will be made and what tactics will play out. As always Valverde's finish could win him some extra MTF KoM points to give him the edge.
  • ReplyReply

  • kevchenko13

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 110
    • Liked: 92
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #507 on: July 10, 2014, 21:49 »
    Cheers Leadbelly, I'm taking the minimum e/w on Jarrier for pot luck and also taking Barta at the same odds.  Going for Albasini over Van Avermaet in the head to head, hoping that the former will be given more license to go for the win than the latter.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7994
    • Liked: 7506
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #508 on: July 11, 2014, 21:01 »
    Oss just isn't quick enough anymore.  :(

    TdF Stage 8

    Wyss 201 with PP

    Well since Frank is out now, I guess IAM will be going stage hunting crazy. Wyss has been in decent climbing form the past few races, so he's got as good a chance as anyone if he gets in the right break.
  • ReplyReply

  • Arb

    • Road Captain
    • Country: an
    • Posts: 2367
    • Liked: 571
    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #509 on: July 12, 2014, 08:45 »
    Little bit on LRP @34 with Bonascre in the back of one's mind.
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top