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Arb

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #510 on: July 12, 2014, 08:49 »
Really hard to see a break going all the way, Oleg will want to fight for the win. Bit on Bertie for the win, though I don't think he's at his best >10% if they race hard enough up to the finish then it is to his strengths.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #511 on: July 13, 2014, 10:08 »
    Well a French winner yesterday, so all is not lost. Free bet though, rather than money back - so the PP offer has changed slightly from the Giro.

    Barta 201 with PP

    Konig and Machado starting to drip, drip, drip time away in the GC. Top 15 may be their aim now, but no reason the team can't go after stages at the same time. Barta's an okay climber and if the weather is changeable again today, then anything could happen.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #512 on: July 14, 2014, 17:53 »
    Well, well, well. Now Froome and Bert are both out, some of our big ante-post bets are starting to look feasible. No chickens have been counted though.

    TdF Stage 11

    Purito 201 with PP

    Not an ideal stage for him, but enough climbing towards the end to maybe give him a chance from the break. The day after definitely isn't for him, so a chance then to rest before the big climbs on Friday and Saturday.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #513 on: July 16, 2014, 09:49 »
    Greipel's Birthday today...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #514 on: July 17, 2014, 17:07 »
    Money back again, courtesy of Gallopin's win the other day.

    TdF Stage 13

    Martin 201 with PP

    If he gets in a break containing Purito, I have difficulty seeing him winning, but he seems to be in amazing form - nothing seems impossible. Maybe a chance to do something this weekend, before a bit of downtime ahead of the TT at the end of next week.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #515 on: July 18, 2014, 16:48 »
    As suggested in chat, will Nibali's dominant win mean more chance for the breaks to succeed?

    TdF Stage 14

    Kiryienka 201 with PP

    Porte's big loss today probably points towards some Sky stage hunting. Nieve is the obvious pick, but is too short (and getting shorter) for a winner from a break I feel. Haven't seen a huge amount of Kiry this race, but he has the history and ability to win from the break on a stage like this.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #516 on: July 25, 2014, 18:18 »
    TdF TT

    Chavanel v Kwiatkowski 2.5 with Bet365

    Kwiatek's performances the past few days either suggest he's been saving himself for this TT, or that he's absolutely cooked. I'm going for cooked.

    Post Merge: July 25, 2014, 18:30
    ...and Valverde at 26 for a top-3 with Bet365, as a bit of insurance more than anything for my ante-posts. Has been looking a bit weak on the climbs, but he did monster the Spanish TT Champs recently.
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  • « Last Edit: July 25, 2014, 18:30 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #517 on: July 26, 2014, 18:30 »
    Yup, he's cooked. Needs a good break. Doing Pologne would be a bad idea.

    Delighted that the other bet lost by so much.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #518 on: July 27, 2014, 19:13 »
    My heart was in my mouth reading in the shoutbox about Peraud crashing today.....

    Another to add to the long list of ante-post bets.

    TdF GC

    Peraud 501ew with PP

    Won't win, but if one or two of the big four have bad day/illness/injury he's sure to be one of the pack sniffing round for a podium place. Been shortening elsewhere after his PV performance.

    ...and who knows what may happen to Froome's back over the next few months, but unfortunately I was a bit late to get on the Kwiatek price myself.

    Since it's getting a bit closer though I will have a bit of Pinot 201ew (Bet365) and Mollema 151ew (PP) for the TdF GC.


    TdF KoM

    Voeckler v Rolland 4.0 with PP

    Rolland slipping more time again today, which could be good for his KoM chances actually, but I believe he's been suffering a bit from a sore botty. Both have targeted KoM in the past, so anything could happen really in that H2H.


    I guess it shows if you throw enough mud at the wall, some of it will (eventually) stick.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #519 on: July 27, 2014, 19:18 »
    good job, really good job. congratulations
    .

    :beer


    :rasmussen :fanfare
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #520 on: July 27, 2014, 19:36 »
    The beers are on me.  :D
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #521 on: July 30, 2014, 16:46 »
    San Sebastian

    Purito 101ew
    A. Yates 151ew

    Both with PP. Don't think the Purito one needs much explanation. Not in absolute top form, but this new finish looks right up his street with the finish only ~7km from the top of this climb that includes some very steep ramps. in contrast Yates is in very good shape - see Italy this past weekend for details.

    Post Merge: July 30, 2014, 16:49
    Will add Mollema too at 101ew. Ninth last year and a more selective climb near the end here should suit him better.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #522 on: July 30, 2014, 16:59 »
    any idea for tomorrow?

    Villumsen tends to finish 2nd in the big races, but who could come 1st then? Gillow?

    also not sure Dennis is that much of a favorite
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #523 on: July 30, 2014, 17:08 »
    Don't have the foggiest about the women's TT really. Would have to do some digging/guessing.

    Yeah, Dennis has been a bit of a mystery man since the TdS. Might not win, but surely he's still too good for Millar in the H2H at 2.0?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #524 on: July 30, 2014, 17:17 »
    Don't have the foggiest about the women's TT really. Would have to do some digging/guessing.

    me too, yeh. And just saw Rob Hatch saying that wind might have a major influence, that's probably in Villumsen's favor vs the leightweights

    Yeah, Dennis has been a bit of a mystery man since the TdS. Might not win, but surely he's still too good for Millar in the H2H at 2.0?

    will probably get voided I think, doesn't make much sense regarding the outright odds
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #525 on: July 31, 2014, 18:59 »
    Pologne Stage 1

    Debusschere 151ew with PP

    PP have it priced up as Dehaes being the Lotto sprinter, but why not Jens? Stage win in Wallonie the other day beating Meersman, Nizzolo, TVA and Bos. Teams aren't fully finalized yet, but the sprint competition doesn't look that frightening - a top-3 wouldn't take a massive stretch of the imagination.

    RR prices are up also for the Commonwealth Games. Anybody seen anything that tickles their fancy? I could be tempted by a random African, but none are priced up so far.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #526 on: July 31, 2014, 21:27 »
    Ha - PP have shortened Debusschere to 40 now!  Shame, that looked tasty.  Instead I'll take Ratto at 100ew.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #527 on: August 01, 2014, 18:47 »
    Pologne GC

    Geniez v G. Izagirre 2.0 with Bet365

    Okay Gorka did just win the Ordiziako Klasika, but I don't think he's ever done a good TT in his life and surely he's going to be working for either his brother or Benat or Amador. As long as Geniez tries here, it looks a safe bet.
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  • LaVelocipede

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #528 on: August 02, 2014, 00:29 »
    Roche, 140/1 SanSeb...
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  • "Cycling is like boxing: It's not a game. It's a hard, pitiless sport that demands very great sacrifices.One plays football, tennis, hockey, but one does not play at cycling."
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #529 on: August 02, 2014, 16:59 »
    San Sebastian

    Purito 101ew
    A. Yates 151ew

    Both with PP. Don't think the Purito one needs much explanation. Not in absolute top form, but this new finish looks right up his street with the finish only ~7km from the top of this climb that includes some very steep ramps. in contrast Yates is in very good shape - see Italy this past weekend for details.

    Post Merge: July 30, 2014, 16:49
    Will add Mollema too at 101ew. Ninth last year and a more selective climb near the end here should suit him better.

    Well it's a :betting, but still a bit disappointed after Yates crashed. Reckon he'd beat Purito in a sprint and maybe the gap that Valverde had after the descent wouldn't have been as big.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #530 on: August 02, 2014, 17:14 »
    Commonwealth Men's RR

    Dan from Nam 301ew with Bet365

    Well I said I'd go with a random African. So Dan it is. Just for fun.

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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #531 on: August 02, 2014, 18:25 »
    Commonwealth Men's RR

    Dan from Nam 301ew with Bet365

    Well I said I'd go with a random African. So Dan it is. Just for fun.
    I approve of that decision!
    Go *na Dan!
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    kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #532 on: August 02, 2014, 22:41 »
    Nice picks again Leadbelly.  Was in a similar boat, also with Yates and Purito but also had Nieve at 80ew, so your Mollema outdid me nicely there and I just got a very minor win.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #533 on: August 03, 2014, 09:29 »
    Nice one Kev.

    Looks like Debusschere isn't on the Pologne start list anymore unfortunately. They're presumably riding for Dehaes these first few days then.

    Nobody tempted by Arredondo at 301 for the Pologne GC? Could he gain enough time on stages 5 and 6 before the TT?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #534 on: August 03, 2014, 09:40 »
    I don't know, he lost about a minute to Malori in the ~9km Tirreno ITT, so I think we would need ~1 1/2 to 2 minutes on good time trialists like Izaguirre, Amador, Meyer or Jungels (and several others). Can't really see it happen.

    I took Jungels to beat Zakarin for gc at ~2 btw. Says he has recovered from the crash and will go for gc. Zakarin....no idea what do expect. Not too much I think. Lost major time in those italian races last week, and his time trial is nothing special anyway
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #535 on: August 03, 2014, 22:47 »
    Cheers Leadbelly!  Also got a win today, Hutarovich at 40/1 (pennies only for me on that one, but still a bonus tenner back!) after Ratto was removed from the provisional list.

    Steele von Hoff is at a long 66/1 for tomorrow's stage - will they definitely be sprinting for Farrar (16/1)?
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #536 on: August 03, 2014, 22:57 »
    I think to figure out who was infected by the crashes today and who just was nowhere to be seen because of poor shape will be tough to find out...especially when it comes to Garmin with basically no information available online
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  • froome19

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #537 on: August 03, 2014, 22:58 »

    Nobody tempted by Arredondo at 301 for the Pologne GC? Could he gain enough time on stages 5 and 6 before the TT?
    Already lost over 6 min today. He would have to gain more than just time to win.
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #538 on: August 07, 2014, 21:15 »
    Don't know what happened to Geniez today, but the H2H looks dead barring a DNF for Gorka.

    Pologne Stage 6

    Firsanov 151ew with PP

    Not sure that he's in the form of previous seasons, but he had some decent results in Italy the other weekend and he finished in eleventh today and looked strong. Maybe just missed the burst to achieve a better result, but maybe we can get something more selective/tactical tomorrow.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #539 on: August 08, 2014, 21:04 »
    Well, I still have one bet alive in the TdP.  It's :gesink who I got at 150ew before the start.  He has a reasonable shot at the podium tomorrow I think if one of the current top three slip up in their ITT.
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