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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #540 on: August 09, 2014, 19:16 »
Firsanov crashed out.

Eneco GC

Leukemans 301ew
Wellens 401ew

Both with Bet365. Not sure how Wellens will go on the mini RVV stage, but apart from that they're both good all-round riders. The TT is pretty short, so the GC will be more than likely influenced by the two tough stages. Both in decent shape in Wallonie.

Post Merge: August 09, 2014, 19:53
I'll add Roux (or is it Boucher  :P) to that at 351ew, also with Bet365.

Does a good short TT, fast enough to maybe win some bonuses, excellent form (15th at San Sebastian). Only question mark is maybe stage 5 again.
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  • « Last Edit: August 09, 2014, 19:53 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #541 on: August 09, 2014, 22:52 »
    Eneco Stage 1

    Vanbilsen 301ew with Bet365

    They're talking about it being quite windy on Monday's stage with a few afternoon showers thrown in for good measure. Topsport generally do very well in those sorts of conditions. MvS is also included in the squad, but he's also down for riding in London on the Sunday, so maybe they'll go with Kenny on this first stage.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #542 on: August 12, 2014, 16:33 »
    Eneco Stage 3

    Gilbert 201ew with PP

    Looks up for the GC so far. Little attack today and we have the evidence from Sunday to show his good form. Won his last prologue at the ZLM Tour and this is only a couple of km longer.

    Weather could play a part tomorrow, so an early starter may be in order when we know the actual full results from today.
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  • Dim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #543 on: August 12, 2014, 16:52 »
    yeh, ive taken gilbert.. £1 each way always worth a punt. Gone Thomas as well. In good form recently
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  • Dim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #544 on: August 13, 2014, 19:25 »
    80/1 on Thomas was the winner...

    Gilbert failed, and the backer of Cancellera to win failed as well. But i will take the e/w, paid 20/1
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  • Dim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #545 on: August 13, 2014, 21:51 »
    EBH, 150/1 e/w for Stage 4.

    Possibly the biggest waste of £2 ever :D
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #546 on: August 14, 2014, 20:10 »
    Eneco Stage 5

    Roelandts 401ew with PP
    Dillier 501ew with PP
    Thomas v Dumoulin 2.0 with Bet365

    With Gilbert, GVA and others in a good postion in the race it's difficult to see Dillier getting a real chance of doing something, but you never know how race tactics will work out and he has the talent to win on stages like this. Not sure what form Roelandts is in or what his aims are in this race, but it's a big price for someone who finished third at RVV last year. Dumoulin did well on the similar stage last year, but Thomas is in just as good form as Tom and is the more natural rider for this type of stage.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #547 on: August 16, 2014, 20:09 »
    Well I got that one badly wrong the other day about Thomas v Dumoulin. Very strong finish from him.

    Eneco Stage 7

    Rojas 201ew
    Jempy 201ew

    Both with Bet365. Neither could hang on today to be in the final selection, but I believe tomorrow isn't quite as tough. Good chances of it being a reduced sprint and hopefully they can stick around and get involved.

    Gonna be a nervous day.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #548 on: August 17, 2014, 15:50 »
    Firsanov crashed out.

    Eneco GC

    Leukemans 301ew
    Wellens 401ew

    Both with Bet365. Not sure how Wellens will go on the mini RVV stage, but apart from that they're both good all-round riders. The TT is pretty short, so the GC will be more than likely influenced by the two tough stages. Both in decent shape in Wallonie.

    Post Merge: August 09, 2014, 19:53
    I'll add Roux (or is it Boucher  :P) to that at 351ew, also with Bet365.

    Does a good short TT, fast enough to maybe win some bonuses, excellent form (15th at San Sebastian). Only question mark is maybe stage 5 again.

    Don't know if Jempy or Rojas made the front group today (I suspect not), but frankly who cares. :betting
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #549 on: August 17, 2014, 16:18 »
    biggest odds ever?

    only got him at 150-1. but still, not bad, not bad :betting


    I would have preferred not to have to worry about how today's stage would unfold though. Glad it still was as easy as expected ;)
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #550 on: August 17, 2014, 16:28 »
    Yeah, my GVK win earlier in the season at DDP was my biggest outright win before this, so it's nice to land the big one.

    This thread's doing well recently though - nice wins for yourself, Dim and me. :betting
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #551 on: August 17, 2014, 20:19 »
     :cool :cool :cool
    Had almost forgotten I'd taken you up on the Wellens tip!  "Only" got him at 100/1 but was a pleasant surprise when I just logged in to PP

    Thanks - best result of the year so far!
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #552 on: August 18, 2014, 16:44 »
    Some other markets for the Vuelta starting to come out now.

    Vuelta Stage 1

    Ogres 34ew with PP

    Not as strong as their Giro TTT squad, but not far off it. Still got six good guys there with just Chaves to keep tagged on if he's going for the GC. Tough to beat OPQS, but the other teams are well within range.

    Post Merge: August 18, 2014, 16:50
    ... and thinking about it a bit further, since I've rated OPQS so highly I might as well have them at 7 (but just a single). Should be favourtites no?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #553 on: August 18, 2014, 18:58 »
    Vuelta KoM

    Tschopp 501ew with PP

    Not a fan of outright KoM bets usually. Too much of a crap shoot, but this one might have legs. Tschopp's a decent climber and he's already talked about going for stage wins. So hopefully that means no hanging around trying to get a top-20 in the GC, but instead looking to get in as many breaks as possible. He's targeted and won KoM jerseys in the past - Romandie this year and PN in 2013. He just has to make sure he gets in the break on stage sixteen!
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #554 on: August 21, 2014, 18:40 »
    Vuelta Team Classement

    OPQS 201 with Bet365

    A lot of strong teams about, but OPQS didn't do badly at the Giro in this competition with just three riders contributing mainly. Those three are back and I reckon the others will have a freer rein than they did in the Giro to get in breaks etc. Also with two TTs they should make some big gains there.  ;)

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #555 on: August 22, 2014, 09:35 »
    Well if Horner's out, I'll take Winner at 26 with PP for top-ten in the GC. Looked in good nick in Utah, and racing there is good prep for the Vuelta (or so they say).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #556 on: August 22, 2014, 17:16 »
    Markets are up already for stages two and three on PP.  :shh

    Vuelta Stage 3

    Arredondo 151ew

    Tried mapping the final km or so on tracks4bikers, but I wasn't having much success in getting an accurate reading of the gradient. I'm not sure about the accuracy of the last km profile from the official site either (I don't see a downhill last 200m unless the line is somewhere different than stated). However I'll go with it being a bit selective and hope Harry can show his punchiness.

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #557 on: August 22, 2014, 19:58 »
    looks like a good bet, indeed

    I took Moreno to win the points classification (only got him @26, but he is also available @41 with betvictor)

    if you remember last year: he won two stages in the first couple of days and was leading relatively comfortable, before he crashed on stage 10 and barely score any points anymore. In the end he still only came ~30 points short of winning the jersey.

    he seems to be in good shape, and there are a handful of stages perfectly suited to him in the first half of the Vuelta again this year.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #558 on: August 23, 2014, 20:22 »
    Yeah he looked strong at Burgos, could be just coming into form at the right time.

    Quite glad Movistar won by a few seconds. Would have been quite tiresome to lose the win portion of the Ogres bet by 0.01 seconds or whatever it was. Still, the ew bit was a winner.

    Just out of interest did anyone see Cannondale's price beforehand?
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  • al_pacino

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #559 on: August 23, 2014, 21:21 »
    Yeah he looked strong at Burgos, could be just coming into form at the right time.

    Quite glad Movistar won by a few seconds. Would have been quite tiresome to lose the win portion of the Ogres bet by 0.01 seconds or whatever it was. Still, the ew bit was a winner.

    Just out of interest did anyone see Cannondale's price beforehand?

    Didn't see the Cannondale odds but did have a little on the winners. This thread "inspired" me to place a few quid.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #560 on: August 24, 2014, 10:41 »
    talking about Cannondale...

    Stage 2: Boivin @251 e/w with bet365

    according to himself, he is Cannondale's designated sprinter for the bunch sprints...

    I can't really see Sagan turning into a leadout man for the Canadian Cannonball, but who knows...if it really happens, everything is possible. Worth a try I think, with that info
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #561 on: August 24, 2014, 17:25 »
    looks like Boivin's blog is written by Oscar Gatto...  :S
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #562 on: August 24, 2014, 20:04 »
    Ooof!  Narrow fail today on Farrar each way at 66/1.  Damn! :angry
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #563 on: August 25, 2014, 19:55 »
    No dice with Harry today.

    Vuelta Stage 4

    Hooters 126ew with Bet365

    It's one of these bets that I'm already questioning the logic of. The finishing loop does contain a cat 2 climb, but it's 8km at 4.8% (according to cycling quotes), so I'm hoping he can hold on over that or get back on in the final 26km to the finish.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #564 on: August 26, 2014, 00:06 »
    I can't really see him winning, but who knows...sometimes the sprinters lack a bit of a kick after a hard effort the day before - and if that really is the case for Bling and Bouhanni it could be more or less everyone's race...

    I also took Tony Martin, was at 126, now still at 101 with willhill. I didn't look that up now, but in a perceived 90% of the time he goes for an attack in a finish like this while the sprinters teams are still trying to re-organize themselves.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #565 on: August 26, 2014, 09:07 »
    Yes you're probably right. Think I was swayed too much by the 2008 result. Let's hope for a very slow pace.  :P
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #566 on: August 26, 2014, 19:51 »
    no real try from Martin today, a bit unusual, those sprinters teams left didn't look particularly strong...

    Arredondo lost 10 minutes today. If he just had a bad day he might turn into an interesting contender for the mountain jersey...
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #567 on: August 26, 2014, 19:58 »
    Hooters 126ew with Bet365
    Who is Hooters, anyway? Those nicknames sometimes confuse me. I mean, everybody knows Bling or Piti. But Hooters? :S
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #568 on: August 26, 2014, 20:06 »
    Who is Hooters, anyway? Those nicknames sometimes confuse me. I mean, everybody knows Bling or Piti. But Hooters? :S

    Hutarovich and I'm on him again for tomorrow's stage. :fp

    151ew with Bet365

    He's struggling in this heat, but it's an easier climb tomorrow. Let's see what happens.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #569 on: August 26, 2014, 20:54 »
    In terms of overall bets, I've done the following

    Berhane each way 500/1 - it looks like the rumours of his rise were a little premature!  Oh well.
    Zubeldia each way 500/1 - this one looks a bit better!  Quite why he is so long is a surprise to me
    Barguil each way 200/1 - he is a more likely rider for a breakthrough this time


    Also KoM, as advised!
    Tschopp 500/1

    And to win the team classification:
    OPQS 150/1
    • Ag2R 400/1
    • Trek 500/1


    A few clearly dead bets already!
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