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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #570 on: August 27, 2014, 09:10 »
Arredondo lost 10 minutes today. If he just had a bad day he might turn into an interesting contender for the mountain jersey...

from Deignan's blog:

I found myself in a group of about 10 or 12 riders, mostly sprinters [...], but Colombian climber Julian Arredondo, who won the Giro stage where I was third in May, was also there. He told me he was taking it easy and would just be going for stages later on in this Vuelta.
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #571 on: August 29, 2014, 19:54 »
    Some points for Tschopp today, but getting dropped by De Marchi doesn't bode well for further on in the competition. Especially if Harry or Kenny or Thibaut decide to go for it.

    Vuelta Stage 8

    Hofland v Matthews 2.2 with Bet365

    Could be an interesting stage if we get echelons etc and Belkin would normally be the better team at exploiting those conditions. Even if that doesn't come to pass, Matthews has looked a bit off the pace in the full on sprints on stages two and five - Hofland finished ahead in both of these.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #572 on: August 29, 2014, 21:27 »
    Stage 8

    Mondory 200/1 e/w on PP
    Reynes 150/1 e/w on PP

    Am I totally misreading this, or are Bouhanni, Degenkolb and Matthews such strong favourites that these guys are thought to have no chance of the podium?
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  • al_pacino

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #573 on: August 29, 2014, 22:39 »
    Stage 8

    Mondory 200/1 e/w on PP
    Reynes 150/1 e/w on PP

    Am I totally misreading this, or are Bouhanni, Degenkolb and Matthews such strong favourites that these guys are thought to have no chance of the podium?

    Not so much Matthews but the other two do seem the strongest sprinters and IMO make the e/w market a bit more difficult.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #574 on: August 30, 2014, 08:52 »
    I guess with it being a much flatter stage, the bookies think their teams will ride for Hutarovich and Pelucchi, but Mondory and Reynes seem in decent nick, so who knows.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #575 on: August 31, 2014, 19:40 »
    Less said about that h2h the better.  :P

    Vuelta Stage 10

    Valverde 501ew with PP

    Not at his best in the final TT at the TdF, but he's better than that. Was getting fatigued there after a hard three weeks, whereas here it's just over a week in, it's after a rest day, it's on home soil and things are still very much to play for.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #576 on: September 03, 2014, 09:04 »
    Vuelta Stage 11

    Deignan 201
    G. Caruso 201
    Bilbao 201

    All micro singles with PP. Another stage for the break maybe? Don't have a lot of time, but it's a tough final ascent. So just picked the three climbers I liked from the biggest price bracket (didn't see anybody at 300). Obviously team orders could play a part for Deignan and Caruso if their leaders need their help, but a chance worth taking anyway.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #577 on: September 03, 2014, 13:30 »
    Vuelta Team Classement

    OPQS 201 with Bet365

    A lot of strong teams about, but OPQS didn't do badly at the Giro in this competition with just three riders contributing mainly. Those three are back and I reckon the others will have a freer rein than they did in the Giro to get in breaks etc. Also with two TTs they should make some big gains there.  ;)

    Worth revisiting this one today, with the withdrawals of Morabito and Quintana.  OPQS move up to first place in the provisionals I think.

    With most of my other Vuelta overall bets looking dead, I upped the stakes on this last night following Quintana's TT - hopes are being pinned on Uran, Serry and Poels.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #578 on: September 03, 2014, 15:05 »
    Have they changed it how the team comp works? I thought it was just the times of the first 3 finishers on each stage that were added together? So Nairo's times from previous stages should all still count I think.

    Even so Quintana dropping out is good news (from the point of view of the bet), but I still think they still need to get into a winning break or two (or three) to have a chance.

    Should be fun watching how they get on anyway.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #579 on: September 03, 2014, 15:29 »
    Ah, my bad, yes.  I had it down as three best overall times.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #580 on: September 04, 2014, 18:27 »
    ToB prices are up on PP

    Let's follow some JSG advice and back Cummings at 67ew. Good TTing all year and not bad climbing, his teams leader and second twice before in this competition. What could possibly go wrong.  :P
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #581 on: September 04, 2014, 20:30 »
    I'm too late to that party - he's already come in to 18!

    Taking Stannard at 125, just in case something happens to Wiggins' challenge.  Seems a bit unlikely as he will be coming back to fitness but he's got all the attributes to win it.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #582 on: September 05, 2014, 21:00 »
    took Poels for tomorrow @201 (also @251 with ladbrokes)

    said he'd expect to to be allowed to join a breakaway later on in the race, so tomorrow might come too early, but ~200 for someone who was 3rd from the bunch on Zoncolan this year as a domestique (20th in the result, but 17 riders in front came from a breakaway) and 2nd on Angliru earlier on in his career looks okay to me on a climb like this
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #583 on: September 07, 2014, 20:56 »
    Those pesky Katushan midgets kill the team classement bet. Think that's all my Vuelta bets dead unless Winner somehow or other gets back into the top-ten.

    The KoM title is still very open. A good day tomorrow for anyone who gets in the break could see them rocket right into contention. Some tempting riders at 501. Any thoughts?

    ToB Stage 2

    Kittel 34 with PP

    Have had a bit of a look at the final climb tomorrow. Doesn't look super tough and although he's probably not in top shape here, we've seen at times that Kittel can get over small bumps (one in Dubai sticks in my mind) and if he does make it into the final sprint then he's got to be favourite.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #584 on: September 07, 2014, 22:19 »
    Clarke said he has tried to join the breakaway for two days in a row, so he will probably give it another try tomorrow & is a former winner - but he surely is not good enough?!
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #585 on: September 08, 2014, 09:51 »
    I guess it depends who goes in the break with him. He's got a kick though, so that could play in his favour and who knows how the weather will change things. Who would have predicted Ratto's stage win last year.

    I had been thinking Poels or Evans for the KoM, but their prices have shrunk a bit overnight, so I probably won't bother. Evans has been a strange one, he had that really good TT, but then getting dropped very early on other days. He's the sort of rider who could do it though if he had the motivation/permission.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #586 on: September 10, 2014, 19:30 »
    ToB Stage 5

    Dowsett 126 with PP

    Could be in the mix from either the botd or with a late attack. Ol' Alex has been pretty active so far in the race. He tried late on stage 2 (similar finish tomorrow) and if Chavanel had helped him maybe they could have made it stick. He was also in the break today for a while, but a mechanical/puncture put paid to his chances and he seemed rather angry on Twitter about not being allowed some assistance to get back to the break after this misfortune. So he's just got to channel that anger tomorrow into a stage win.

    GP Quebec prices are up too. Not much about, but I'll take Gautier at 151ew. Fourth at Plouay recently and if Coquard can't make the final selection has a decent turn of speed of his own.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #587 on: September 11, 2014, 22:49 »
    can't bet with Paddy Power, but Yannick Martinez @301 looks very tempting. For a sprinter, he was super strong on the mountain stages last weekend + already made it into a breakaway going to the end once (when Hesjedal won, Martinez was working for Sicard until the final climb when half of the break was already dropped).

    If he can make it tomorrow I can very well see him winning - and maybe even if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #588 on: September 13, 2014, 18:37 »
    One final Vuelta bet

    Stage 21

    Valverde 401ew with PP

    Had him for the main TT and he did okay there, but this shorter stuff is more to his liking. First half looks quite technical with numerous roundabouts. Second half looks more for power types, but with not many big specialists left there's always a chance for a bit of a surprise.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #589 on: September 15, 2014, 18:27 »
    That rain.  :angry

    Worlds RR

    Uran 301ew with PP

    Going to need a tough race to get rid of the sprinter types, but is fairly quick himself from a small group. Good one day pedigree, but obviously has a question mark on form after his early abandonment of the Vuelta. If he has the form though you'd think he should be around the price of folk like Nibali, Sammy Sanchez etc (~100).
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #590 on: September 15, 2014, 18:28 »
    his participation in the TTT has just been cancelled as he is not fit yet though
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #591 on: September 15, 2014, 18:37 »
    Probably explains the price a bit, but let's be positive, the RR is seven days after the TTT and I'd guess OPQS wouldn't have viewed him as essential to their success (they've got plenty of others who can fill in).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #592 on: September 17, 2014, 16:30 »
    Women's RR

    Brennauer 101ew with PP

    I won't pretend to know much about women's cycling, but Lisa has had some good results this year. Fairly quick too.

    Post Merge: September 17, 2014, 16:41
    ...and I'll add Olds to that at 151ew and Cordon at 201ew, also with PP. I guess my thinking is, if the PP compiler makes so many mistakes with Men's races, then the number in Women's should be astronomical.  :lol
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  • « Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 16:41 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #593 on: September 19, 2014, 21:00 »
    any thoughts about Betancur?

    took him 8 weeks from being completely out of shape and way too heavy in San Luis to easily win Paris Nice.

    will ~7 weeks from Burgos to the worlds be enough to do the same?

    could also end up abandoning the race early, but 250-1 for one of the maybe ~5 best riders in the world for a race like this is huge I think...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #594 on: September 19, 2014, 21:55 »
    Difficult to know. There didn't seem to be much evidence of substantial improvement as the Vuelta progressed, but the same thing happened last year and he still managed a decent showing at the Worlds.

    I guess it's similar to my Uran bet with there being a big question mark over the rider's shape, but if either of them can find the form then they could be in with a shout, and at such big odds there's not much to lose either way.

    No recent photos of him kicking round the internet?

    Speaking of Rigo, he posted this. Anybody any idea what he's saying? Doesn't look too ill, which brings a little confidence.

    https://vine.co/v/OWFn5uTUwuU
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #595 on: September 22, 2014, 18:18 »
    Women's TT

    Sablikova 501 with PP

    Rain and changing conditions seems to be the underlying theme so far of Ponferrada. So a micro bet on one of the early starters for tomorrow. Not much of a checkable racing career, but seems a decent TT-er.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #596 on: September 22, 2014, 18:45 »
    a strong early starter, that's exactly what I was looking for earlier on as well.

    Sablikova seems to be a very good choice, multiple speed skating world champion and gold medal winner at the winter Olympics. I just read some statements in czech media and those say she now wants to focus more on cycling to also win a gold medal at the summer olympics in 2016.

    This year she has done double of the amount of km on the bike she usually does, and her trainer says Top 5 or maybe even a medal is a realistic target.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #597 on: September 22, 2014, 18:58 »
    She was 9th in Valkenburg already, so with more training and focus a medal isn't impossible.
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  • Cyclingnews Women's WorldTour Correspondent
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #598 on: September 22, 2014, 19:05 »
    http://supercycling.cz/novinky/mistrovstvi-sveta-silnicni-cyklistika/martina-sablikova-jde-do-boje-desitka-bude-super-rika/#.VCBkMfldWic

    Yeah I did a bit of digging too (after I made the bet  :S). Some positive things, but she also says she hates the rain. So we need some help from Mother Nature and Old Father Time just to get the rain falling at the right point of the afternoon.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #599 on: September 22, 2014, 19:07 »
    SOLOVEY Anna  could or most likely will go full retard for tomorrow fwiw

    might be something to look ad with EVD being the fav ??
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