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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #600 on: September 22, 2014, 19:14 »
SOLOVEY Anna  could or most likely will go full retard for tomorrow fwiw

might be something to look ad with EVD being the fav ??

maybe, yes, I think I took her last year already, but the Russians might be a bit less cautious this time

edit: *ua, whatever
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #601 on: September 26, 2014, 09:25 »
    U23 RR

    Doull 301ew
    Kozhatayev 301ew

    Both with PP. Was hoping that watching the Junior race this morning might help solidify some ideas about the circuit, but I still don't have the foggiest.  :D

    Just some micros at big prices. Doull's quick, but can he get to the finish with the leaders? Kozh is the better climber, but has he got a kick to beat others. Just fun bets really.

    Post Merge: September 26, 2014, 10:11
    Both with Bet365 and not with PP. Brain fade.  :S
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  • « Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 10:11 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #602 on: September 27, 2014, 17:15 »
    Second for Lisa in the RR.  :cool

    Could have been even better as she finished strongly despite a poor position. Ah well.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #603 on: September 30, 2014, 17:16 »
    Milano-Torino

    Rebellin 201ew with PP

    Some big names about, but with his consistency you'd hope he would be there or there about in the top 10, and if some of those names are already in holiday mode then he could take advantage.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #604 on: October 02, 2014, 17:20 »
    Unlucky Dave.

    GdL

    Finetto 201ew with PP

    In very good form the past set of races - making the front grp in pretty much all of them. Maybe the chances of an outsider are also increased due to the course being different from previous years. The newness will prevent people from knowing when and where is the best place to attack - could see a surprise or two.
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  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #605 on: October 02, 2014, 17:26 »
    are there any odds out there for Alberto's attempt at Giro-Tour double?
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #606 on: October 02, 2014, 18:25 »
    Haven't seen anything on the bookies I use. Don't usually get Giro odds till Feb (?), but I guess there could be a special about if you checked all the sites, or just go into a bookies on the street and ask for the odds.

    What would the odds likely be? 7.5ish (~2 for the Giro and ~3.75 seems the average for the TdF)?
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  • Flo

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #607 on: October 02, 2014, 19:57 »
    Haven't seen anything on the bookies I use. Don't usually get Giro odds till Feb (?), but I guess there could be a special about if you checked all the sites, or just go into a bookies on the street and ask for the odds.

    What would the odds likely be? 7.5ish (~2 for the Giro and ~3.75 seems the average for the TdF)?

    hmmm...

    I thought it would be in the 20-30 range because many people seem to think he'd be lucky to finish top 3 at the TDF after il Giro. But indeed taking into account the Tour odds it's probably lower
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  • al_pacino

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #608 on: October 03, 2014, 20:55 »
    Unlucky Dave.

    GdL

    Finetto 201ew with PP

    In very good form the past set of races - making the front grp in pretty much all of them. Maybe the chances of an outsider are also increased due to the course being different from previous years. The newness will prevent people from knowing when and where is the best place to attack - could see a surprise or two.

    Down to 801 on bet365 by the time they got the market up.

    Had a little on Sicard @ 400/1 and I couldn't help it Betancur @250/1
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #609 on: October 10, 2014, 21:17 »
    Who needs off-season guessing games when we have gambling.  :P

    ToB GC

    Gilbert 151ew with PP

    I remember last year Intxausti picking up a bonus second on one of the earlier stages. Unfortunately I only used that bit of info for a H2H on the emperor stage and not for the GC, so when Phil went off the front of the peloton today to pick that one second up, I was immediately reminded of it. Sanchez is the "designated leader", but Phil could be around there on Monday - the climb's not that tough (the not dissimilar Bakelants for instance was only 13 seconds down last year).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #610 on: October 14, 2014, 17:47 »
    That's the other thing about the off-season guessing game. They don't do cash prizes.

    :P :betting

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #611 on: October 17, 2014, 07:19 »
    are there any odds out there for Alberto's attempt at Giro-Tour double?

    Skybet have a market on winning all three GTs - AC is at 23 for that.
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  • Flo

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #612 on: October 17, 2014, 08:35 »
    23 for winning all 3 :Poo:  :Sleepy: I'd have thought 150-200 or so
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #613 on: October 22, 2014, 17:48 »
    Cycling season is over, but there are still some markets up for races in 2015

    TdF GC

    Barguil 501ew with PP

    I guess the big question is whether he rides it or not. The answer is currently dunno, but they're tempting odds even if it does end up just as money back. The short amount of ITT seems a big plus for him and Giant seemed to have got their act together a bit recently as regards TTT, so the losses in those disciplines would be limited. I don't see why he can't have a performance next year of a similar level to Bardet's this year.

    Any thoughts on TVA for MSR? Would he be even picked?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #614 on: October 25, 2014, 15:49 »
    23 for winning all 3 :Poo:  :Sleepy: I'd have thought 150-200 or so

    6 for the Giro-Tour double at Billy Hills.
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  • Flo

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #615 on: October 25, 2014, 18:53 »
    6 for the Giro-Tour double at Billy Hills.

    WTF

    6 at TDF or Giro is like 3rd or 4th fave right?

    Seems crazy low odds
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    • World Champion
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #616 on: October 25, 2014, 21:38 »
    WTF

    6 at TDF or Giro is like 3rd or 4th fave right?

    Seems crazy low odds

    I don't know, there's not much sense in playing a bet like this anyway, its basically an accumulator on him winning the Giro first and then the Tour.

    Its pure mathematics, if he is evens for the Giro (@~2, as Quintana and Wiggins were, approximately), then you could also bet (for example) 100 Euro on him first and then wager (after he has won) all the winnings on him to win the Tour at ~3 or 4 or whatever it will be - its exactly the same as putting a bet on the double. (2*3=6)

    of course, if he wins the Giro by 20 minutes odds on him to win the Tour might shrink as well, so by playing that early bet on the double you can secure the "good" odds for the Tour - but its unlikely it'll be much lower then I
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #617 on: November 09, 2014, 16:39 »
    MSR

    Lobato 201ew with PP

    Was reading his interview with Biciciclismo and MSR is on his mind. The weather played a part this year, but his fourth was still a bit of a surprise. However if they run the same course in 2015 (which I think they are), I can't see why he couldn't be up there with the other quicks and should be at similar prices to them.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #618 on: December 28, 2014, 12:08 »

    TdF GC

    Barguil 501ew with PP

    I guess the big question is whether he rides it or not.

    Looks like it's on.

    Now he just has to beat Contador, Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Purito......    :wut
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #619 on: December 28, 2014, 17:24 »
    Looks like it's on.

    Now he just has to beat Contador, Froome, Quintana, Nibali, Purito......    :wut


    ...Pinot, Bardet, TJ, Valverde...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #620 on: December 31, 2014, 12:13 »
    Bertie is 2.25 for the Giro, seems kinda high given no one else is really racing it. If the situation in April is as it stands now he should be ~1.60.

    EW value

    Hesjedal @ 51
    Basso @ 67 (though he will likely open higher in other markets unless he does something before May)
    Scarponi @ 126 (I will definitely hit this if he shows signs of having recovered from Padova)
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #621 on: December 31, 2014, 19:55 »
    Bertie is 2.25 for the Giro, seems kinda high given no one else is really racing it. If the situation in April is as it stands now he should be ~1.60.

    EW value

    Hesjedal @ 51
    Basso @ 67 (though he will likely open higher in other markets unless he does something before May)
    Scarponi @ 126 (I will definitely hit this if he shows signs of having recovered from Padova)

    Really? I don't think I would go for Basso or Scarponi if they were 1,000/1.

    Bertie at 2.25 is good though. Betancur at 25s too.

    I'm going to have a fiver EW on Cunego at 150/1.

    Damn I meant Caruso
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #622 on: December 31, 2014, 20:16 »
    What a dopey sh*te I am. Placed a fiver EW on Cunego rather than Caruso. Paddy Power voided the bet thankfully, so put £2.50 EW on fat Carlos for the Giro and £2.50 EW on Bouhanni for Green at the Tour. Both at 25/1.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #623 on: January 05, 2015, 08:07 »
    wtf Durbridge @ 10 for the ITT

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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #624 on: January 05, 2015, 16:58 »
    Quite fancy Howson at 33.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #625 on: January 06, 2015, 02:39 »
    Meyer is out, Rogers and Porte confirmed starters are also decent value. Good odds on Dennis not to win if you got the best prices.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #626 on: January 08, 2015, 10:44 »
    Hmm, my least best winner but probably lucky in the end.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #627 on: January 10, 2015, 08:56 »
    Tempted by Barbie EW after he talked himself up :o
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #628 on: January 10, 2015, 12:24 »
    Excepting Paddy are any other bookies offering odds for Australian RR?

    Nevermind , I found the other bookies(Bet365, Bet Victor and Sky Bet)
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    DJW

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #629 on: January 10, 2015, 16:59 »
    Odds seem more generous on the whole at Paddy Power, apart from Porte who's 4/1 at bet365.
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