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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #630 on: January 10, 2015, 17:14 »
Earle at 125-1 with paddy looks decent.
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #631 on: January 10, 2015, 19:03 »
    Tempted by Barbie EW after he talked himself up :o

    i think this is THE year FWIW




    might have said the same last year

    and the year before

    and .... :D
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #632 on: January 10, 2015, 23:39 »
    Earle at 125-1 with paddy looks decent.

    No EW but I guess with a bit of one two with Richie he should win.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #633 on: January 10, 2015, 23:44 »
    kkkkkkk I got dis

    Evens @ 4.50
    CM EW @ 8
    Barbie @ 26
    TOT=GT @ 126
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #634 on: January 11, 2015, 09:39 »
    Nice one Arb. Another good start to the year for you.
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #635 on: January 11, 2015, 09:59 »
    Nice one ARB. I actually took your advice and placed a bet on Haussler so thanks!
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  • Eduard Grosu fan!

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #636 on: January 11, 2015, 10:08 »
    Great, I was a bit worried I didn't have him each way but was confident of him coming over the top of Ewan in that situation.

    We learned absolutely nothing about the TDU favourites so hope for some surprise odds.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #637 on: January 13, 2015, 15:41 »
    I resisted the temptation of the Nats, but I've caved in for the TDU.

    TDU GC

    Impey 41 with PP

    Ogres say they are after stages and to animate the action, but with Impey they still have a chance for the GC I feel. Fast enough to pick up some of the bonuses at certain stage finishes and importantly at the intermediates.

    Post Merge: January 13, 2015, 16:00
    Don't like backing under 100 though, so.....  :D

    TDU Stage 2

    Haas 101ew with PP

    Showed good speed last year in various races. Stirling finish is usually too tough for a lot of the sprinters, so Haas could do very well here.



    Post Merge: January 13, 2015, 16:00
    That Impey one is ew btw.
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  • « Last Edit: January 13, 2015, 16:00 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #638 on: January 14, 2015, 10:11 »
    Hmm Haig 151, pity there is nothing for Power.

    Mick should really top3 so will take him @ 19
    + Kennaugh @ 101.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #639 on: January 14, 2015, 10:31 »
    There are some really good pure punt plays on Stage 2. This field is bad, practically no one from the top10 in the last three years. Impey could go ok but Meersman is the only one of those sprinters that is at fair odds, dunno about his form though, maybe just cover with him...

    So

    Meersman @ 10 (win only)
    Evans @ 23
    Clarke @ 67
    Rogers @ 151
    Lindeman @ 151

    Heaps more if you want... LLS, Hesjedal, Porte, Hansen, Stannard.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #640 on: January 17, 2015, 23:30 »
    Tempted to go Manzin, because CQ.

    Anyway, CJ @ 34.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #641 on: January 17, 2015, 23:34 »
    Tempted to go Manzin, because CQ.

    Anyway, CJ @ 34.
    I've got £2.50 EW on Manzin at 125/1
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #642 on: January 17, 2015, 23:36 »
    Ah nice, only found him for 81 @ 365, a bit short :P
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #643 on: January 18, 2015, 00:04 »
    Ah nice, only found him for 81 @ 365, a bit short :P

    Paddy power still 125
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #644 on: January 19, 2015, 08:34 »
    Pinny have Kittel @ 2.40... seems kinda high. there are a couple of false flats and the finish is 2-3% but he doesn't get dropped on speed bumps anymore. Potential for a decent headwind though so probably enough doubt there.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #645 on: January 19, 2015, 13:32 »
    #ccc at the Giro

    Schummi for the 60 ITT  :s :s :s  :lol
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #646 on: January 19, 2015, 14:14 »
    Bet365 are quick off the mark. Got CCC riders added to the Giro and MSR markets already.
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #647 on: January 19, 2015, 15:35 »
    My picks for stage 1:

    Bonifazio 51 ew
    Wippert 26 ew
    V Hoff 31 ew

    GC picks

    Evans 10
    LLS 26 ew
    Impey 15
    Meersman 101

    Stage 2

    Wippert 101 ew
    Meersman 10
    Lobato 11
    Evans 23 too
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #648 on: January 19, 2015, 15:36 »
    Do anybody know if there will be odds for San Luis?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #649 on: January 19, 2015, 16:01 »
    Haven't seen any. Think Ladbrokes and somebody else had it last year, but haven't checked to see if they're doing the same this year.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #650 on: January 21, 2015, 07:18 »
    Far, far, far too early from Haas.   :(

    Least Impey got some bonifications.
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #651 on: January 21, 2015, 12:43 »
    Great win for Lobato and good money for me. Got to say I had a lot of success early on this season. I started by following Arb advice and won on Haussler at the Nationals. Then a 67 ew bet on Wippert at PCC and now Lobato at 11.0. I also had Bonifazio 51.00 ew but the break was just too strong in the end.

    Bet for San Luis Stage 3:

    Gatto 26.0 Ew


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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #652 on: January 24, 2015, 14:25 »
    TDU Stage 6

    Sutton 201ew with PP

    Porte may say the race isn't over yet, but realistically it is. So I don't see why CJ might not get the chance to go for the sprint tomorrow. Won this stage back in 2010 and was fourth at the Cancer Classic last weekend, so with a dollop of luck he could be sniffing around the podium here.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #653 on: January 27, 2015, 10:58 »
    I think it's a day for checking the ante-post markets.   :nerd:
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #654 on: January 27, 2015, 11:36 »
    MSR

    Navardauskas 126ew with Bet365
    Bole 301ew with PP

    Just noticed Ramunas was drifting a bit. Don't know if he's riding it yet which is always a bit of a gamble, but with Cannondale's lack of a sprinter, he's probably their quickest finisher. Certainly showed some good pace in some races towards the end of last year and after 300km anything can happen.

    RVV

    Devenyns 301ew with Bet365

    Difficult to see a situation where Dries can win, but it's not that much a stretch to see him coming to the finish in a small grp - he made that select group of 12 or so last year when he was working for Degenkolb. This year he's with IAM, I guess he'll have a co-leader type role at RVV. He could have to work for Haussler or Chavanel depending on how the race goes, but that's much less certain that it was with JD.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #655 on: January 31, 2015, 11:18 »
    GORR

    Lagutin 201ew with PP

    Reduced group sprint seems the most likely option. Not sure if Tsatevich will make that goup, so Sergey might be a better option (depending on who else is in the group). Seemed in okay form at the TdU when working for Machado.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #656 on: February 02, 2015, 21:00 »
    Dubai GC

    Ruffoni 301ew with Bet365

    The GC seems to boil down to whether the punchers can make up enough time on stage 3 to overtake the sprinters who've gained bonifications on the other three sprint stages (or alternatively drop the sprinters before they even get to the final kick). Not too sure which way it will go, but if Ruffoni can pick up some bonuses in the first two stages then he might try and hold on to the end of stage 3.

    JD looks pretty tempting at 8 despite what his team says.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #657 on: February 02, 2015, 22:24 »
    JD looks pretty tempting at 8 despite what his team says.

    maybe, yes, if they don't go for Mezgec in the flat sprints. Hard to see Haga or Ludvigsson really fighting it out with Valverde and so on.

    Vino said Nibali will help Lutsenko by the way, but for him it'll be tough to really win as well I guess. There might still be some value at 80-1 though.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #658 on: February 03, 2015, 00:30 »
    lobato is probably a good shout too.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #659 on: February 05, 2015, 18:47 »
    Ah well. No bonifications for Ruffoni.

    Stage 3

    Chernetskiy 126ew with Bet365

    Not convinced that Purito is here to do anything other than get some miles in his legs. Seems to have been hanging round the back of the peloton a lot, and especially on stage one he could have lost time very easily. Cherno would on paper be the next most likely rider to try something tomorrow. Pretty punchy and has some nice results on similar-ish types of finishes, but a lot will depend on just getting into the prime position going through that final right hander.
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