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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #660 on: February 06, 2015, 21:36 »
Just a couple of quickies since I'm shattered.

Qatar GC

Pozzato 126ew with Bet365

In a bit of form at Dubai. Team doesn't have the options that others do, but if the wind blows he could be up there.

Qatar Stage 1

D. Van Pimple 101ew with Bet365

Strong sprinting field in Qatar, but it's the first day's racing for a few of them - Sagan, Demare and Kristoff. Bouhanni's train needs a bit of work, Modolo was getting beaten by Gaviria too let's not forget and Kittel was nowhere in the TdU. Maybe Danny can profit from these rusty riders.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #661 on: February 06, 2015, 22:19 »
    I'm tempted by Oliveira at 150
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #662 on: February 07, 2015, 10:02 »
    He's at 301 at Bet365 if you have an account there.
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  • AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #663 on: February 08, 2015, 10:12 »
    For today stage I have:

    Bennet 67.0 ew
    Danny V. Poppel 126.0 ew
    Haussler 34.0 ew
    Bos 81.0 ew

    For GC:

    Sagan 15 .0
     

    Hope one of them at least podium...
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  • Eduard Grosu fan!

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #664 on: February 08, 2015, 18:41 »
    Qatar GC

    Stannard 101ew with PP

    With Wiggins losing time today it looks like it will be up to Stan and Rowe to contest the GC. Just off the podium in 2014 in Qatar, a solid TT-er (11th last year and had to go when the conditions weren't ideal) and one of the more aggressive and savvy of the Sky riders.

    Post Merge: February 08, 2015, 20:12
    ...and back again with DVP at 201ew with Bet365 for Stage 2.  :D

    He didn't make the split today, but the initial plan was for him to contest the sprint and not Stuyven. Stuyven did okay, but he was in a great position and didn't really make any headway against the other sprinters, so hopefully Danny will be given the nod if he can manage to get to the finish in the leading group.
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  • « Last Edit: February 08, 2015, 20:12 by Leadbelly, Reason: Merged DoublePost »

    AlyKaptan

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #665 on: February 10, 2015, 08:00 »
    Brandle 67.0 ew for this stage. Hope his form is good.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #666 on: February 17, 2015, 19:09 »
    That was tiresome about Stannard.

    Oman Stage 2

    Costa 151ew with Bet365

    I'll steal search's analysis of the stage. Last year this finish produced a group sprint due to a headwind on the climb, but the year before produced a different type of result. Less distance this year too after the descent is over, so maybe that pushes the advantage away from the quicks towards people like Rui.
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  • search

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #667 on: February 17, 2015, 19:48 »
    looks good, also Trentin @34 maybe if it turns out to be a group sprint

    for the Andalucia TT I took a small bet on Ludvigsson Top 3 @15, last year he started the season with a win in the Etoile de Bessèges over a more or less similar distance (including a short climb though)
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #668 on: February 17, 2015, 22:38 »
    Engoulvent could be worth a quid at 125/1 for stage 1b of Ruta tomorrow.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #669 on: March 05, 2015, 08:32 »
    I have a feeling my betting is going to suffer with having very little time currently to watch the races.  :(

    SB

    Lutsenko 251ew
    Canola 301ew

    Both with PP. I wouldn't say either are experts on sterrata, but in the highlights that I have seen them this year they have both impressed (mechs notwithstanding). Canola (riding with the inexperienced Italian Nat team here) especially surprised me with some strong performances and the move to UHC and the increased amount of leadership opportunities seems to have had a good effect on him. Fingers crossed anyway.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #670 on: March 05, 2015, 21:51 »
    Paris-Nice GC

    Frank 201ew with Bet365

    Similarly to last year, Frank has had a slow start to the season. It was only at CI in 2014 that he burst into life, but I don't see why he can't perform here. None of the big four are riding and the field is a lot more open than TA. His TT-ing has improved a lot since his BMC days so the two chronos shouldn't provide too much of an obstacle.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #671 on: March 10, 2015, 11:08 »
    Quinziato not looking great value on this :fp

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  • search

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #672 on: March 10, 2015, 11:27 »
    great value indeed :P - he might have a shot at the prologue though

    that's a tough one by the way, I'd say it favors the good sprinters, doesn't it? with 6 accelerations necessary in the first half of it...I took a small one on Farrar at ~150 e/w. Sagan might have some value as well.
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  • DJW

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #673 on: March 11, 2015, 11:49 »
    Betfair is well worth a look for the upcoming classics. Just put £2 EW on Vandenbergh at 80/1 for Roubaix, might increase that depending on how his form looks.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #674 on: March 12, 2015, 08:50 »
    Hello all, long time no see.

    I've taken Ciolek for today's Tirreno flat stage at 151ew with PP.  They have Eddie Boss priced up shorter though.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #675 on: March 12, 2015, 09:40 »
    And Farrar, and Goss
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #676 on: March 12, 2015, 17:08 »
    PN Stage 5

    Bonifazio 126ew
    S. Dumoulin 151ew
    Hivert 201ew

    Some tempters on PP. None of them have been anywhere so far this week really, but this is the sort of finish that could suit the two bigger priced riders better. From viewing search's video in the race thread it's a bit of a drag up to the line and that should suit Hivert especially and even Dumoulin going by his win the other week.
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  • search

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #677 on: March 13, 2015, 07:28 »
    yep, I had Dumoulin in mind for this stage for a week already. If Kwiatkowski wants to take another 10 bonus seconds, he will though, I guess. Looks tailor made for him
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #678 on: March 14, 2015, 22:50 »
    PN TT

    Chavanel 51 (top 3)

    Despite his good form this week, the weather probably needs to be nasty again for him to have a shout. He's been top ten on this course before. The forecast is for rain tomorrow and a fairly strong NE wind, but not sure how much that will effect the riders (blocked by the hills?).
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #679 on: March 15, 2015, 06:35 »
    flip yeh, it's that time of the year again...

    POZZATO @ 81 (M-SR)
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #680 on: March 21, 2015, 02:23 »
    Couple more randoms...

    Cimolai @ 81
    Breschel @ 126
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #681 on: March 24, 2015, 21:01 »
    DDV

    Wynants 301ew with PP

    No Vanmarcke for Jumbo tomorrow, so they say they're going in with no specific leader. This could give Maarten a chance to shine. 11th and 8th in his last two outings at DDV. The weather doesn't look that bad, but there could be showers and it will be coldish with a chance of the wind playing a part in the outcome.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #682 on: March 26, 2015, 22:00 »
    Catalunya Stage 5

    Reza 101ew with Bet365

    Haven't really been able to catch much of this race other than today's finish, but tomorrow could be a chance for Reza. That final climb might get rid of some of the chaff, but hopefully not Kevin, and although he hasn't really he shown it this year, he can give a good showing in a reduced group sprint. Just don't stop for a whizz at the wrong time.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #683 on: March 27, 2015, 21:32 »
    GW

    Rowe 251ew with Bet365
    Leukemans 351ew with Bet365
    Burghardt 401ew with PP

    Weather forecast looks interesting for the region on Sunday. Overcast with occasional rain and drizzle, but most importantly winds of ~40km/h with gusts of ~55km/h. So I'm putting my eggs in the non-sprint basket and going with some guys who did well today.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #684 on: March 31, 2015, 08:28 »
    Driedaagse De Panne-Koksijde Stage 1
    Adam Blythe 200/1 ew

    Odds too good to pass up.  It's going to be unbelievably windy and I reckon any winner of the Circuit of the Fens has got what it takes.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #685 on: April 02, 2015, 07:28 »
    DDP Stage 3a

    Downing 351ew with Bet365

    Hasn't made the front group on either of the two stages so far, but maybe that can change this morning with a stage of only 111km. Same finish as previous years with that sharp right hander with ~300m to go - get a good position going through that and a podium could be on.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #686 on: April 09, 2015, 13:52 »
    Grand National

    Quite a few cycling related horses running on Saturday including last year's winner Pineau De Re. I'm going with....

    Carlito Brigante 67ew with Bet365



    Rebel Rebellion 51ew with Bet365



    Duke of Lucca 67ew with Bet365

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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #687 on: April 09, 2015, 20:32 »
    Grand National

    Quite a few cycling related horses running on Saturday including last year's winner Pineau De Re. I'm going with....

    Carlito Brigante 67ew with Bet365



    Rebel Rebellion 51ew with Bet365



    Duke of Lucca 67ew with Bet365



    It looks like Duke of Lucca won't make the final 40. 2 runners need to come out by tomorrow morning sometime for him to get a run.

    I've had a few quid e/w on Many Clouds and Unioniste for the race. I used to have a fairly decent record in the race but as I don't follow horse racing as much as i used to i don't do aswell with my gambling anymore.
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  • DJW

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #688 on: April 10, 2015, 01:00 »
    I'm taking £5-10 on Shutthefrontdoor before the odds shorten any further, EW on Unioniste as well probably.


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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #689 on: April 11, 2015, 21:31 »
    It looks like Duke of Lucca won't make the final 40. 2 runners need to come out by tomorrow morning sometime for him to get a run.

    I've had a few quid e/w on Many Clouds and Unioniste for the race. I used to have a fairly decent record in the race but as I don't follow horse racing as much as i used to i don't do aswell with my gambling anymore.

    It's probably bad etiquette to quote yourself but

     :D :D :D :D :party :party :party :party :D :D :D :D

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