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Leadbelly

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #690 on: April 11, 2015, 21:36 »
..... and true to life Carlos Brigante withdrew lame this morning.  :P
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #691 on: April 11, 2015, 21:38 »
    ..... and true to life Carlos Brigante withdrew lame this morning.  :P

    Though Duke of Lucca although missing out on a run in the Grand National did win the handicap chase earlier in the day.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #692 on: April 21, 2015, 08:48 »
    Finally a TTT... pity Paddy don't offer their free money EW anymore. This TTT lineup is even worse than usual for Trentino with no BMC.

    Bora @ 151, they are always good and should top3
    Androni @ 251, just because
    RVL @ 12

    Think CJR can go ok too (lol). Sky should win as they have an ok engine room and should take Astana who are starting a man down.

    Also 8 man AG2R who aren't completely useless in TTTs these days v 5 man CULT.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #693 on: April 21, 2015, 08:52 »
    CJR looks ok, yep, took them to beat Bardiani at ~3, most of the team comes right from altitude, and their best timetrialist (Pirazzi) seems to be in horrible shape

    Edit: MTN starts with 6 riders only according to the official start list (MTN twitter says 7 though), so that h2h vs Colombia could be interesting - but I don't really know in what way, Colombia is really poor as well without Avila
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #694 on: April 21, 2015, 21:29 »
    That went pretty well...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #695 on: April 26, 2015, 03:41 »
    Scarponi @ 126

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #696 on: April 26, 2015, 16:22 »
    Turkey GC

    Bilbao 151ew with PP
     
    Just off a successful Vuelta a Castilla y Leon where he had a stage win and only got beaten in the GC by riders of the calibre of Rolland and Intxausti. The level of opposition is lower here, so 151 seems quite generous for quite a weak climbing field.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #697 on: May 01, 2015, 09:20 »
    is that really a sprinter's stage in Yorkshire today?! Anything can happen here I think, with the number of weak teams & riders and Kittel not fit / out of shape (not that he would make it over the climbs anyway)

    took Hermans and Cummings E/W at 251 & 351 for a late attack (with 10bet, also at bet365)
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #698 on: May 01, 2015, 19:36 »
    both just missed the decisive move, tough luck
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #699 on: May 01, 2015, 22:35 »
    Unlucky search, and I'll steal some of your research for a bet. Hey, it's saves me doing any work.  :P

    last week, when asked on Twitter if he would do the Giro, Zakarin replied that Romandie would be his main goal for the season, and that he wasn't in peak form for Pais Vasco yet. If this is true, it will be very interesting to see, what he can do here...

    Romandie Stage 5

    Zakarin 201ew with PP
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #700 on: May 02, 2015, 22:11 »
    search get's half the credit, but not half the money. :betting  :P
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #701 on: May 02, 2015, 22:14 »
    that's true indeed, only managed to get him matched at ~75 for the win and ~18 for Top 3...  ;)

    wouldn't mind him to also win the race I must say...will be tough though.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #702 on: May 03, 2015, 08:18 »
    How ridiculous. Frank is 600/1 for the ITT today yet Bananito is only 300/1. Frankly...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #703 on: May 05, 2015, 22:53 »
    4 Jours de Dunkerque

    GC

    Konovalovas 151ew with PP

    The field in general looks weaker than last year. Combining this with the weather conditions and things could get unpredictable.

    Stage 1

    Engoulvent 201ew with PP

    The weather looks nastiest tomorrow and on stage 4. Winds of over 40km/h expected (with gusts 10-15 higher?) in the afternoon. Let's hope for carnage (of the non-crashing variety).

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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #704 on: May 09, 2015, 00:55 »
    Katusha seem overs here
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #705 on: May 10, 2015, 08:09 »
    or not, big time gaps too...
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #706 on: May 10, 2015, 17:13 »
    4 Jours de Dunkerque

    GC

    Konovalovas 151ew with PP

    The field in general looks weaker than last year. Combining this with the weather conditions and things could get unpredictable.


    Iggy ain't no stooge.   ;)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #707 on: May 13, 2015, 19:36 »
    Giro Stage 6

    Frapporti 501 with Bet365

    Let's steal some more research.  :D

    I hope Frapporti will try to join the breakaway again though, he already has 40 points from winning the intermediate sprints on stage 2, another 40 points tomorrow would give him a shot to get the points jersey for one day at least, in case Viviani doesn't score too many points at the finish

    Not much chance for the break tomorrow, but you never know. Just ask Canola from last year.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #708 on: May 14, 2015, 11:59 »
    Having a punt on the break making it today as well:

    Paterski 501 with PP

    Three stage wins this year already.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #709 on: May 20, 2015, 21:14 »
    Wish I'd seen Magic at that price.  :(

    Giro Stage 12

    Gatto 301ew with PP

    Hmmmmm didn't somebody say that Oscar would be targeting this stage.  :lol

    The EW was a mis-click due to tiredness, but hey-ho.
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  • kevchenko13

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #710 on: May 22, 2015, 22:52 »
    Time trials!

    Long shots but you never know...

    Pirazzi 151 (on the nose and more than I wanted to bet; fat fingers)
    Formolo 251ew
    Cataldo 18 on the nose
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #711 on: June 10, 2015, 17:14 »
    First time I've logged into PP for a while.

    Dauphine Stage 5

    Busche 301 with PP

    Just a hail mary in case the break make it. I don't think Trek's GC ambitions extend to anything more than a top 10, so I can see them wanting to show off Busche's new kit and possibly try for the stage win. Gallopin described Busche as very strong in the TTT, so he must be in some sort of form.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #712 on: June 13, 2015, 08:54 »
    https://twitter.com/stedicia/status/599170324438065152

    40-1 for Suisse doesn't look too bad I think
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #713 on: June 29, 2015, 21:40 »
    TdF Green Jersey

    Degenkolb v Sagan 5.0 with Bet365

    Not sure the points competition changes will affect this particular H2H too much as it's unlikely either of them will be winning on the pan flat days, but Kittel's absence should mean Degenkolb will be getting involved in all sprints. Sagan should still be favourite, but if JD decides to go for the intermediates then it could be a lot closer than 5.0 suggests.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #714 on: June 29, 2015, 21:56 »
    Wouldn't it be better just to go for Degenkolb at 14/1 with PP? The only other person likely to target the Green Jersey is Kristoff.

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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #715 on: June 29, 2015, 22:17 »
    i'm probably going to have two outright bets on the tour this year.

    Nibali for yellow and Degenkolb for green.

    Nibalis prep while looking underwhelming in some ways is very similair to last year. His only win between the 2013 Giro and last years toue was the Italian RR champs and his only win between last years tour and this years was the Italian RR champs so his lack of wins isn't really a worry.

    With there being no Kittel, Degenkolb will pick up more points than he would if Kittel was there. Also he'll be the only Green jersey contender at the finish with sagan on some stages and I think he is definitely the faster finisher of the two so the disparity in odds between the two makes me think that degenkolb is the best bet for the green jersey.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #716 on: June 30, 2015, 09:19 »
    Wouldn't it be better just to go for Degenkolb at 14/1 with PP? The only other person likely to target the Green Jersey is Kristoff.

    You could be right, but I don't like outright prices that low. Kristoff and Cavendish could both be challenging for the green, unlike Sagan and JD they'll both fancy their chances on the high scoring pan flat stages. Haven't looked too closely at the stages, but it doesn't look like there are that many intermediates that you need some climbing for

    Just think in general that any realistic h2h should never be that high - you got to factor in illness and crashes etc.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #717 on: June 30, 2015, 09:58 »
    TdF GC

    Sepulveda v Nerz 2.0
    Gesink v Peraud 2.2
    Costa v Rolland 2.5

    Treble at 11.0 with Bet365

    Big question marks over the form and fitness of Peraud and Nerz. Wouldn't surprise me if they are DNFs or hours down in the final GC. It still remains to be seen whether Costa can translate his one week stage race results to the longer format, but I'm fairly confident if he can avoid crashes etc that he can at least be around the level of Rolland.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #718 on: July 01, 2015, 20:16 »
    TdF Stage 1

    Teabag v Froome 2.2 with Bet365

    Think Froome's TTing has dipped from 2014 and even more so from 2013. Probably down to his training focusing more on his climbing/punchiness due to this year's parcour. I reckon TJ may have a few seconds advantage after this stage.

    TdF Stage 2

    GVA 301ew with Bet365

    Forecast doesn't look too windy for Sunday in this region, but you never know, we could have echelons etc if it does start to blow from the right direction. Crashes etc could also give some splits and GVA has been mixing it up with the sprinters recently in the TdS - third and fourth from reduced groups.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #719 on: July 04, 2015, 09:16 »
    TdF GC (without the Big 4)

    Some interesting prices in this market if you can see a particular rider finishing "seventh" in the GC.

    Hesjedal 201ew
    Frank 251ew
    Valls 301ew

    All with Bet365.

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