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Joelsim

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #720 on: July 04, 2015, 09:20 »
Had a fiver on a cheeky accumulator on 9 match bets. Will net £1300 if it comes in.

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  • Flo

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #721 on: July 11, 2015, 18:29 »
    Tinkoff 25/1 for tomorrow's TTT?! Might be worth an e/w bet.. :P (I don't bet :shh )
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  • RIP Keith
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #722 on: July 12, 2015, 10:06 »
    Teabag bet from the first stage was a winner and GVA was close on stage 2, but the others look not so good - need Sepulveda to get his finger out and do better than Nerz for the accy.

    Tinkoff 25/1 for tomorrow's TTT?! Might be worth an e/w bet.. :P (I don't bet :shh )

    Think they were 67 last week or so when PP had an early market up, but I ummmed and ahhhhed too long about it.

    TdF Stage 9

    Etixx v Tinkoff 4.33 with Bet365

    I'm risking the wrath of somebody here, but the odds have drifted far enough now I think it to be worth a shot. Etixx naturally are missing Tony and it's a big miss, but they still got a well drilled team. I still think they'll be there or thereabouts and maybe even challenging for a podium.
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  • Flo

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #723 on: July 12, 2015, 14:27 »
    Think they were 67 last week or so when PP had an early market up, but I ummmed and ahhhhed too long about it.



    Shame on you! :angry :shh :o ;)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #724 on: July 16, 2015, 19:51 »
    Close in the TTT until they got to the final climb.  :(

    TdF Stage 13

    Voss 251 with Bet365
    Geniez 301 with PP

    Decent chance for the break after three tough days in the mountains. I've stolen the Geniez bet from search's preview and I had Voss in mind for the stage even before I saw the odds. Bora should be all about breaks now - no having to babysit Nerz for a top-20 place since the DNF, it's not a stage for Bennett, Barta tried today, Buchmann will wait for the Alps and so why not Vossi tomorrow.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #725 on: July 18, 2015, 23:29 »
    Given that my Nibali/Degenkolb double appears to have gone up the swannie I've decided to have a bet this evening on Quintana at 13/2 as a hopeful saver for me on this years tour as i think Quintana might pull something out of the bag in the Alps.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #726 on: July 25, 2015, 20:41 »
    TdF GC (without the Big 4)

    Some interesting prices in this market if you can see a particular rider finishing "seventh" in the GC.

    Frank 251ew


    Wish I'd forgotten about this bet. Lost out by 25 seconds.  :(

    La Course

    D'Hoore 41 with PP
    Lepisto 201 with PP

    Fair play to PP for putting up a market, though I wonder if they'll regret it. Just a shame there's no ew.

    Both in good form. D'Hoore winning the BeNe Ladies tour with three stage wins - should be under 10 unless I'm missing something. Lepisto also won a stage at Internationale Thuringen Rundfahrt and was placing well in most of the others.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #727 on: July 31, 2015, 22:11 »
    San Sebastian

    Pinot 201ew with Bet365

    Showing good last week form at the TdF. Can he stretch it out for another week? I don't see why not - the recent winners here have tended to be riders coming off the Tour. Question marks about the speedy descent after the final climb, but that one crash the other week does tend to overshadow his improved descending from where it was a couple of years ago.

    Pologne

    Rosa 401ew with Bet365

    Bit of a hail mary. Aru is supposedly the team leader (and tempting at 81), but god knows what form he'll be in. Rosa to get a bit of freedom?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #728 on: August 02, 2015, 19:55 »
    Denmark GC

    Olsson 301ew
    Pedersen 301ew
    Kamp 301ew
    Quaade 301ew

    All with Bet365.

    Gone a bit crazy with some Scandi bets - considering how badly they're stinking up my Youth CQ team, it may not be the best idea. Fus may think Pedersen is here just to learn, but I think that's aiming a bit low for someone who's been top-10 in Tour des Fjords and 4JD this year. Quaade has his TT in his arsenal, just needs to recover his form of last year. Olsson is usually quite consistent and Kamp is having a good year albeit at a lower level than this.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #729 on: August 08, 2015, 18:49 »
    Eneco GC

    Stannard 201ew
    Benoot 201ew

    Both with PP. Same as previous years, it seems the best bet to go with guys who can do a bit of everything and are aggressive riders. Benoot has had a stellar year for a neo-pro, not sure about his TT, but with Wellens not in such good form, maybe Benoot will get some freedom to do his thing here.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #730 on: August 20, 2015, 23:07 »
    Vuelta Stage 1

    Caja-Rural 751ew with Bet365

    There are some rumours going about that this TTT might get neutralized in terms of GC. If so, could we see quite a few teams not giving it 100%? Why take risks with so many days to go when you can take it easy.

    One team that wouldn't take it easy would be Caja. With it being their home GT, they're not going to tootle round the course. Confidence is high in the team and they showed a good TTT at Burgos the other week.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #731 on: August 29, 2015, 23:18 »
    Plouay

    Gasparotto 101ew
    Paterski 151ew
    Vuillermoz 201ew

    All with Bet365. More for fun than anything, just a few guys for a possible late break who have a quick finish.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #732 on: September 03, 2015, 11:26 »
    Vuelta Stage 12

    Moser 351 with Bet365

    After yesterday's tough stage there's a decent chance for the break today (despite the unlikely profile). Moreno was the name picked out of the the hat of very high odds riders - decent kick if it comes to a sprint from the break or has the TT power to attack from a bit further out.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #733 on: September 19, 2015, 21:39 »
    Tomorrows world TTT championship

    I think Movistar will do a very good ride in the race so with them offering a 1/4 the odds for the first 3 places I'm having a little bit each way with Ladbrokes at 14/1
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  • Archieboy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #734 on: September 22, 2015, 07:39 »
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/horse-racing/34122804

    Victoria Pendleton is back in the saddle this evening in the 5.30 at Beverly. Riding the same horse Royal Etiquette that she rode to 2nd place in her first race. odds this morning at 7/1.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #735 on: September 23, 2015, 05:50 »
    Nice one Carlo.

    Women's RR

    Amialiusik 101ew
    Brand 101ew
    Majerus 126ew
    Lepisto 151ew

    All with Bet365.

    It's difficult to know how the race may pan out without seeing the course first, but both Majerus and Lepisto have quick finishes if it comes down a sprint (both had good seasons too). If it's more selective or a break takes it, then Amialiusik could come into play.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #736 on: September 27, 2015, 12:47 »
    Haven't seen a race, but Moreno @ 251, could just come out on top if Piti and Purito look at each other too long.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #737 on: September 27, 2015, 16:47 »
    I know I should really post this before the race started but I've gone E/W on Stybar for todays RR
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #738 on: December 09, 2015, 20:20 »
    Olympic RR

    Had a few basic thoughts about what I think we're looking for in a winner here. A good climber obviously, some previous results in one day races (the longer the race the better) and I'm saying he has to be riding the TdF in 2016. So I've put those thoughts in the washing machine and out came two Dutchmen.....

    Mollema 101ew with PP
    Gesink 301ew with PP

    Mollema could be a good one actually. In the past four years, after he has ridden the Tour, he has gone to San Sebastien a week or so later and put in a run of 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th. Rio will be a week further on from the end of the Tour than SS, but I think these results could show an ability to carry over form after a three week race maybe better than some others.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #739 on: December 09, 2015, 20:37 »
    Olympic RR

    Had a few basic thoughts about what I think we're looking for in a winner here. A good climber obviously, some previous results in one day races (the longer the race the better) and I'm saying he has to be riding the TdF in 2016. So I've put those thoughts in the washing machine and out came two Dutchmen.....

    Mollema 101ew with PP
    Gesink 301ew with PP

    Mollema could be a good one actually. In the past four years, after he has ridden the Tour, he has gone to San Sebastien a week or so later and put in a run of 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th. Rio will be a week further on from the end of the Tour than SS, but I think these results could show an ability to carry over form after a three week race maybe better than some others.

    Kwia, Valverde or purito for me.

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #740 on: December 28, 2015, 20:56 »
    Well those three have the second, first and fourth shortest odds with PP, so it would be a surprise if some of them (the Spaniards) weren't involved in the finale.  :P

    Not so sure about Kwiatkowski. Looks like too much climbing for him.

    Anyway, some more long termers since I'm a bit bored.

    MSR

    Phinney 201ew with PP

    Phinney, although I'm beginning to dislike him generally, seems to be back on track after his leg break. Seventh in 2013 and has a good turn of speed to either contest a sprint or go for a late attack.

    RVV

    Amador 501ew with PP

    Andrey is just a bit of fun.

    TdF

    S. Yates 601ew with Bet365

    Far too early to be thinking about podiuming in a three week race really, but he's been there or there about in one week WT races this year. Fifth in Pais Vasco, 6th in Romandie and 5th in the Dauphine. The two TTs shouldn't inconvenience him too much and neither he or his brother seem too fazed by the elite company they are competing against at such a young age.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #741 on: January 09, 2016, 18:32 »
    Aussie Nat RRs

    Rowney 81 with PP (Women's)
    Kerby 201 with PP (Men's)

    For the Men's race the only chance I see for Drapac is the break taking it. I can't see anyone beating Ewan in a sprint, but what sort of form is Gerro in? I'd rather take my chances against him from a small group, and I'll steal some research from 42x16ss as to why Kerby is the chosen option (obv the price has something to do with it too).

    Heads up, Jordan Kerby (Drapac) is FLYING atm and looking like he's going for Nats, probably the TT and the TDU. He's been demolishing everyone this last month, including total destruction of my club's annual Championship Crit.

    He simply ended up riding away from a group that included Jay McCarthy (Tinkoff), Michael Hepburn (Orica), Chris Williams (Norvo Nordisk), Mal Rudolph (Drapac), Jack Anderson and Josh Prete (Budget Forklifts), Nick Schultz (Etixx Conti) and Dave Edwards (Charterhouse Mason).

    Nobody could mark him


    Rowney is the longest Orica option I could see in the women's race. In contrast to the men's, Orica might not want a sprint (or at least not feel as confident about it). So try and get a numbers advantage in a break and play it from there.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #742 on: January 09, 2016, 19:24 »
    What are the odds for Haas ?

    Aussie Nat RRs

    Rowney 81 with PP (Women's)
    Kerby 201 with PP (Men's)

    For the Men's race the only chance I see for Drapac is the break taking it. I can't see anyone beating Ewan in a sprint, but what sort of form is Gerro in? I'd rather take my chances against him from a small group, and I'll steal some research from 42x16ss as to why Kerby is the chosen option (obv the price has something to do with it too).

    Rowney is the longest Orica option I could see in the women's race. In contrast to the men's, Orica might not want a sprint (or at least not feel as confident about it). So try and get a numbers advantage in a break and play it from there.
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #743 on: January 09, 2016, 19:27 »
    15 with PP (fifth favourite).
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #744 on: January 09, 2016, 19:47 »
    I'm sorely tempted to have £2 on Gaviria for MSR and Piti for the Ronde. If I can get a double it should be 2000/1 ish
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  • search

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #745 on: January 09, 2016, 20:17 »
    that's a tempting offer indeed, Joel, I actually do consider to take that quid or two from you :P
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #746 on: January 09, 2016, 20:22 »
    that's a tempting offer indeed, Joel, I actually do consider to take that quid or two from you :P

    Gaviria could easily win MSR as Kittel isn't going to.

    And never write Valverde off for a tough one-dayer (PR excepted)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #747 on: January 22, 2016, 17:16 »
    TDU Stage 5

    Morabito 201ew with PP

    Part of the group of eight that went over Corkscrew just behind Woods and Henao. Everyone else involved that day is a lot shorter. Difficult to see a win, but maybe a podium if he has a really good day.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #748 on: January 28, 2016, 19:55 »
    Cadel Evans
     
    Smith 151ew with PP
    Christie 151ew with PP

    Got a feeling I could be backing Smiffy a lot this year. Both him and Christie have quite a few race miles done already this year, both can get over the hills and have a decent sprint from a reduced group. Not enough to bear Gerrans/Ewan, but enough to beat some others.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #749 on: January 28, 2016, 20:48 »
    Cadel Evans
     
    Smith 151ew with PP
    Christie 151ew with PP

    Got a feeling I could be backing Smiffy a lot this year. Both him and Christie have quite a few race miles done already this year, both can get over the hills and have a decent sprint from a reduced group. Not enough to bear Gerrans/Ewan, but enough to beat some others.

    I've never heard of either of them LB!
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