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Carlo Algatrensig

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Re: Betting Thread
« Reply #780 on: May 04, 2016, 22:43 »
Giro GC Outright

Zakarin 16/1 ew 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #781 on: May 05, 2016, 10:23 »
    Giro GC Outright

    Zakarin 16/1 ew 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP

    That's the best deal around IMO, although Chaves EW at 50/1 is also promising
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #782 on: May 05, 2016, 10:32 »
    That's the best deal around IMO, although Chaves EW at 50/1 is also promising

    It looks like Zakarin is the rider that the books can't make there mind up about. Some had him as short as 8/1 when I looked yesterday. Wouldn't have backed him at that price but happy to at 16/1. He can climb and TT and the only real negative I can put against him is that it's only his second GT and the first time he'll be riding one all out for GC.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #783 on: May 05, 2016, 11:08 »
    It looks like Zakarin is the rider that the books can't make there mind up about. Some had him as short as 8/1 when I looked yesterday. Wouldn't have backed him at that price but happy to at 16/1. He can climb and TT and the only real negative I can put against him is that it's only his second GT and the first time he'll be riding one all out for GC.

    He's not available at 16 any more. He was 17 earlier in the week, now the best is 14, so it looks as if a few are backing him.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #784 on: May 05, 2016, 13:14 »
    Yea the sputnik drifted since last I saw, taken him on Betfair (will look to trade after 1-2 weeks). Very disappointed Paddy aren't offering EW on the ITT, some worth outsiders.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #785 on: May 05, 2016, 13:32 »
    Yea the sputnik drifted since last I saw, taken him on Betfair (will look to trade after 1-2 weeks). Very disappointed Paddy aren't offering EW on the ITT, some worth outsiders.

    Skybet, Betfair and BetWay seem to be the only ones who are. 1-2.

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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #786 on: May 05, 2016, 22:25 »
    Giro Stage 1

    Hepburn 80/1 ew 1/3 odds first 2 Betfair

    Placed this yesterday and so looks a bit aftertimerish now he's shortened in the betting.

    Interesting that he'll be the last off for OGE so perhaps he's there man for the stage.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #787 on: May 09, 2016, 17:30 »
    Giro Stage 4

    Amador 151ew
    Fuglsang 201ew
    Firsanov 301ew
    Uran 301ew
    Pozzovivo 401ew

    Scattergun approach, all with PP. That up and down finish could suit a late attack and since none of them are top tier, maybe they'll get a bit more freedom.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #788 on: May 12, 2016, 08:38 »
    Not liking many break candidates at this stage, most will still be looking after "leaders".

    small ones:

    Kudus @ 201 (B365)
    Verona @ 151
    Roglic @ 101
    Visconti @ 51

    and Kruijswijk @ 41 (B365) best value of the "big" guns.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #789 on: May 15, 2016, 02:28 »
    Giro Stage 9

    Zakarin 16/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1st 3 PP
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #790 on: May 22, 2016, 10:41 »
    Smallies:

    Valverde top3 @ 7 (Betfair)
    Siutsou @ 126

    Also Siutsou > Jungels and Valverde > Zakarin (both are dogs)

    Hmm Majka > Chaves too.

    First H2Hs since forever wish me luck...
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #791 on: May 22, 2016, 11:09 »
    took Foliforov > Ciccone at ~2.8, as Rusvelo needs reults and he has quite a good record in those kind of efforts, was on par with Aru even on the Col de Bassachaux in 2012. Ciccone... no one knows I guess

    and Scarponi to win
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #792 on: May 22, 2016, 16:32 »
    took Foliforov > Ciccone at ~2.8, as Rusvelo needs reults and he has quite a good record in those kind of efforts, was on par with Aru even on the Col de Bassachaux in 2012. Ciccone... no one knows I guess

    well, there would have been even better value elsewhere by the look of it...
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #793 on: May 23, 2016, 09:12 »
    Ha, fair effort that. A little annoyed with myself as I blacklisted him after not doing what I wanted for my CQ team. Still, very hard to justify an outright bet in a discipline which is supposedly the purest (well there was Garzelli too).
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #794 on: May 24, 2016, 09:29 »
    This is one of the stranger books I've seen. Chances of a GC contender winning are super discounted despite the GC situation requiring action. The break may not form until km 50 and it will only have until around km 60 before someone revs up the peloton (hopefully).

    Maybe a sh*tty break goes very early and gets enough of a gap.

    Anyway, Chaves @ 17, Nibali @ 19.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #795 on: May 25, 2016, 10:51 »
    Idiot should have just gone the favourite...

    Belletti @ 51
    Grosu @ 151

    Both 365.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #796 on: May 25, 2016, 11:29 »
    Belletti was brought to the hospital yesterday after the stage because of a "bronchial spasm fit with shortness of breath". That's also why the odds in the H2H against Arndt totally exploded. But it's hard to say how (or if at all) it'll influence his performance indeed
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #797 on: May 26, 2016, 13:17 »
    Maybe I should read some news occasionally?  Kluge was 151 IIRC
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #798 on: June 13, 2016, 10:12 »
    This is a textbook Albasini stage, which means Sagan should win.

    The second climb on the circuit is like 10% for 500m with 11km to go. If things get stretched there are a couple of corners on the descent which may provide some opportunity/wreck the peloton. i.e. potential opportunists:

    Costa @ 151
    Paterski @ 151
    Barguil @ 201

    365, no PP market for some reason.
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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #799 on: June 19, 2016, 09:09 »
    that final Tour de Suisse stage looks like one for (the new) Richeze  :s
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #800 on: June 19, 2016, 09:48 »
    ha, it should be a little hot for him. Talansky ought to be given a chance to take the bonus seconds.
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #801 on: June 26, 2016, 07:48 »
    Bertie trading at 8.8 - 9.0 on Betfair was too much for me to resist.

    Only problem is that if he's going to do it you know it will be the hard way. If Froome roasts everyone on Aspin/Peyresourde then you will get much better value at that point. Would like to back LRP for a week one special but he's moved in quite a bit it seems.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #802 on: June 26, 2016, 10:07 »
    Bertie trading at 8.8 - 9.0 on Betfair was too much for me to resist.

    Only problem is that if he's going to do it you know it will be the hard way. If Froome roasts everyone on Aspin/Peyresourde then you will get much better value at that point. Would like to back LRP for a week one special but he's moved in quite a bit it seems.

    I was going to have another look at the odds for the TdF today.

    I'm already on Quintana for yellow but was going to have a look at the green and white jersey aswell today.

    Do you think LRP might be an option to back before the race and hope he has a good first week and so shortens up and could lay off for a guaranteed profit?
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #803 on: June 26, 2016, 13:05 »
    Yeh I guess that's the idea, his record on the first MTF of GTs speaks for itself... as do his meltdowns shortly thereafter. In particular Bonascre 2013 and PSM 2015, maybe when he's not working for Froome he doesn't lose as much time to him. But at 20/1 you're only going to get a return out of it if he clearly looks the second or third best contender with a small gap to number one.

    Maybe that price would be acceptable if he had a legitimate chance of a podium, but that ignores the fact his best GT result was a pretty quiet seventh, six years ago! Of course I wouldn't be shocked if he followed through this time (especially new team and all that) but you can't ignore the failure since.

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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #804 on: June 28, 2016, 09:57 »
    Funny, Betfair added the rest of the startlist to the market and some bot decided to put them all at 1000/1.

    Took it for Purito and Van den Breakaway, someone else got Nieve, Poels and Yates.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #805 on: July 01, 2016, 20:42 »
    TdF KoM

    Zakarin v Pozzovivo 2.62 with Bet365

    Can Purito mount a GC challenge that requires the help of Zakarin later in the race? I don't think so and Zakarin himself is unlikely to be in shape initially to go for it after his Giro crash and subsequent recovery. Pozzovivo is more likely to be tied up with Bardet or even sitting in backpockets for a top-ten if the Frenchman messes up, and that doesn't equal many KoM points to me. Hopefully the Russian can get into a couple of breaks further into the race and get enough points.

    TdF Stage 2

    Cancellara 126ew with PP

    It's probably a bit to much for him, but there aren't going to be too many chances for him in this race. Stage 16 could be the other one.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #806 on: July 01, 2016, 20:58 »
    Already on Quintana for Yellow but a few more bets for me

    Coquard 16/1 e/w and Matthews 33/1 e/w both 1/4 odds 1,2,3

    Stage 2

    Vakoc 40/1 e/w 1/4 odds 1,2,3
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  • Arb

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #807 on: July 02, 2016, 09:02 »
    Theuns @ 251
    Petit @ 401

    Because wind
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #808 on: July 09, 2016, 21:43 »
    I might regret this but seeing as he was looking pretty good today i've just had this bet on the GC

    Dan Martin 66/1 e/w with Bet 365 1/5 odds 1,2,3
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Betting Thread
    « Reply #809 on: July 26, 2016, 20:01 »
    TdF KoM

    Zakarin v Pozzovivo 2.62 with Bet365

    Can Purito mount a GC challenge that requires the help of Zakarin later in the race? I don't think so and Zakarin himself is unlikely to be in shape initially to go for it after his Giro crash and subsequent recovery. Pozzovivo is more likely to be tied up with Bardet or even sitting in backpockets for a top-ten if the Frenchman messes up, and that doesn't equal many KoM points to me. Hopefully the Russian can get into a couple of breaks further into the race and get enough points.


    Huzzah!

    I'll even allow myself a :betting since I've had so few winners this year,

    Danmark Rundt GC

    Kirsch 201ew

    Just for a bit of interest over the next few days.
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