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bicing

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What Guardini needs to win races?
« on: March 02, 2012, 10:41 »
(a) Malaysia
(b) Crappy CONTI-level opposition

Seriosuly. I bought the hype last year but now I want a refund.

Couldn't get amongst it in San Luis against Boonen Haedo Viviani
Worse in Oman versus Kittel Sagan Farrar Galizy Cav... everyone
Just as bad in Qatar

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #1 on: March 02, 2012, 11:09 »
     It's very early in the season to write him off. Look at Galimzyanov, Goss etc.
     They have had far less success, so far, but should they already be discounted?
     I'll wait until after the Giro before passing judgement.
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    Tuart

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #2 on: March 03, 2012, 09:35 »
    You're being exceedingly harsh. Malaysia wasn't is only wins last year. He had 11 wins (5TdL), 2nd twice, 3rd three times.

    His other wins:

    Tour of Qatar, Stage 5
    Other sprinters: Chicchi, Bos, Rollin, Kluge, Galimzyanov, Vaitkus

    Tour of Turkey, Stage 1
    Other sprinters: Farrar (2nd), Van Hummel (3rd)
     
    Tour of Turkey, Stage 7
    Other sprinters: Van Hummel (2nd), Farrar (3rd), Griepel (4th), Pettachi (5th)

    Tour of Slovenia, Stage 3
    Other sprinters: Pettachi (3rd), Bole (5th)

    Volta a Portugal, Stage 5

    Giro di Padania, Stage 5
    Other Sprinters: Viviani (2nd), Napolitano (3rd)

    http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/rider_palm.asp?riderid=10520&year=2011&all=1&current=0

    So apart from Portugal, his wins have all been in races with WorldTour teams and not just "Conti" level competition. The fact he won all over the place, consistently through the season shows his hype is more than justified.

    He just has to take it to the next level now, which may not be this year but he's still young and not to mention, its only just March!

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    Hugo Koblet

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #3 on: March 03, 2012, 10:21 »
    I think it's very harsh on him as well. Of course a point can be made about the things you mention, but the guy is still only 22 and if we look at his results, which other sprinters at his age has shown the same amount of potential and gotten the similar results as him? Not very many.

    How many 22-year-olds have beaten Van Hummel, Farrar, Greipel and Petacchi in Turkey? Which other 22-year-olds have beaten Chicchi, Bos, Galimzyanov and Haussler in Qatar? Not very many.

    The fact is, he's still one of the most promising sprinters out there and he has a top speed which is higher than almost everyones.

    I do agree though, that I probably had expected him to do a little better in Oman and Qatar this year, but looking at the quality of the sprinters there, who can really blame him? He's a small guy and he still has some work to do on his positioning which has been his main problem this year, but in a sprint where Sky, Liquigas, Project 1t4i, Katusha, Greenedge, FDJ, Lotto, Rabobank and OPQS all want to take part it's damn hard for a still quite inexperienced young sprinter to position well - especially without all that great of a lead out.

    I think the main issue is that we probably expected too much of him based on his results last year. I mean if an unknown guy came out of nowhere and won 4-5 stages in Langkawi as well as getting a 2nd and a 3rd place in San Luis we would probably all be hyping him as the next big thing. Just like we did with Guardini last year.
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    taiwan

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #4 on: March 03, 2012, 11:02 »
    I had considered that he might be overrated. The field in Malaysia is very weak. I don't expect that much from the Giro as it's his first GT: he'll need to make all the time cuts, and the level of the sprints will be very high. Minor stage races with better fields should be the next thing.
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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #5 on: March 03, 2012, 12:50 »
    Guardini is a long, long way from the best sprinters in the world but give him a couple of years and he probably will be there
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    bicing

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #6 on: March 05, 2012, 14:11 »
    I think it's very harsh on him as well. Of course a point can be made about the things you mention, but the guy is still only 22 and if we look at his results, which other sprinters at his age has shown the same amount of potential and gotten the similar results as him? Not very many.

    How many 22-year-olds have beaten Van Hummel, Farrar, Greipel and Petacchi in Turkey? Which other 22-year-olds have beaten Chicchi, Bos, Galimzyanov and Haussler in Qatar? Not very many.

    The fact is, he's still one of the most promising sprinters out there and he has a top speed which is higher than almost everyones.

    I do agree though, that I probably had expected him to do a little better in Oman and Qatar this year, but looking at the quality of the sprinters there, who can really blame him? He's a small guy and he still has some work to do on his positioning which has been his main problem this year, but in a sprint where Sky, Liquigas, Project 1t4i, Katusha, Greenedge, FDJ, Lotto, Rabobank and OPQS all want to take part it's damn hard for a still quite inexperienced young sprinter to position well - especially without all that great of a lead out.

    I think the main issue is that we probably expected too much of him based on his results last year. I mean if an unknown guy came out of nowhere and won 4-5 stages in Langkawi as well as getting a 2nd and a 3rd place in San Luis we would probably all be hyping him as the next big thing. Just like we did with Guardini last year.
    So you agree that he has been OVER-RATED. I think that's the best assessment, his hype was too much and has been largely unable to deliver in the way we have seen from other riders in the past, such as Sagan, EBH, Degenkolb...

    Anyway...

    Riders performing better than Guardini (2011: 332 points, 2012: 165 so far) who are still really young:

    1.      [SVK]        SAGAN Peter      LIQ      26/01/1990      1417   CQ Points, 15 victories, never faced Guardini
    2.      [ITA]        VIVIANI Elia      LIQ      07/02/1989      698 CQ Points, 8 victories, beaten by Guardini 2 times but Viviani won 1 in San Luis and Guardini placed higher than Viviani in 1 other in San Luis
    4.      [GER]        DEGENKOLB John      PRO      07/01/1989      639 CQ Points, 6 victories, Degenkolb beat Guardini in a sprint this year in Qatar
    5.      [AUS]        MATTHEWS Michael      RAB      26/09/1990      558 CQ Points, 3 victories, never faced Guardini
    8.      [FRA]        DEMARE Arnaud      FDJ      26/08/1991      353 CQ Points, 6 victories, Demare 1 win   

    These riders are debatably better because they are competitive in quality opposition:

    10.      [ITA]        NIZZOLO Giacomo      RNT      30/01/1989      329 CQ Points, 1 win (debatable)

    You can also look at different types of riders and how much higher their CQ scores are:

    3.      [FRA]        PINOT Thibaut      FDJ      29/05/1990      649 CQ Points, 6 victories
    6.      [ITA]        ULISSI Diego      LAM      15/07/1989      488 CQ Points, 3 victories   
    9.      [USA]        PHINNEY Taylor      BMC      27/06/1990      344 CQ Points, 1 win (debatable)   

    Condiering 2011 year you can add to the list:

    7.      [AUS]        BOBRIDGE Jack      GRM      13/07/1989      395 CQ Points
     
    Competition that Sagan beats: speaks for itself
    Competition that Viviani beats: Sagan, Visconti, Modolo, Galimz
    Competition that Degenkolb beats: EBH, Farrar, Kittel, Marcato, Gilbert, Ciolek, Hutarovich
    Competition that Matthews beats: Greipel, Goss, Ventoso, Kittel
    Competition that Demare beats: Hutarovich, Renshaw, Sagan, Farrar, Galimz

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  • bicing

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #7 on: May 24, 2012, 19:39 »
    One Giro win, so what. All the good sprinters except for Cavendish bailed.  :fp
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  • Jamsque

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #8 on: May 24, 2012, 21:02 »
    Really impressive turn of speed today, good timing and positioning too.
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  • Sylvester

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #9 on: May 24, 2012, 23:31 »
    He's limited as a rider, but when everything goes his way, he's absolutely unstoppable. Very few sprinters can beat Cav in this kind of fashion.
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  • bicing

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #10 on: June 29, 2012, 08:51 »
    Guardini is so good, only the very greatest, finest sprinters can defeat him...
              
    SCHNAIDT Fabian, MEZGEC Luka, GIRAUD Benjamin

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  • Tuart

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #11 on: June 29, 2012, 09:07 »
    Faster than a speeding Spartacus

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  • bicing

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #12 on: July 09, 2012, 09:32 »
    I have again been humbled, Andrea Guardini has defeated his arch-enemy Luka Mezgec and won stage 9 of the Tour of Chinhigh Lake.

    1.       [ITA]         GUARDINI Andrea       FAR       2h29'37"       25   
    2.       [SLO]         MEZGEC Luka       SAK              15   
    3.       [KAZ]         TLEUBAYEV Ruslan       AS2              10   

    History will tell if this will be a passing of the torch like Federer to Nadal in Wimbledon 2008 when Nadal won his first non clay slam against Federer.
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  • Hugo Koblet

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #13 on: August 27, 2012, 11:29 »
    I have again been humbled, Andrea Guardini has defeated his arch-enemy Luka Mezgec and won stage 9 of the Tour of Chinhigh Lake.

    1.       [ITA]         GUARDINI Andrea       FAR       2h29'37"       25   
    2.       [SLO]         MEZGEC Luka       SAK              15   
    3.       [KAZ]         TLEUBAYEV Ruslan       AS2              10   

    History will tell if this will be a passing of the torch like Federer to Nadal in Wimbledon 2008 when Nadal won his first non clay slam against Federer.
    I will be interesting to see how Guardini will do next year when he's the main sprinter of Astana. I hope he gets some support in races even though Astana isn't exactly known for their sprint train.
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  • bicing

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #14 on: September 06, 2012, 09:54 »
    Guardini had a chance to prove himself against top sprinters like MARKUS Barry, VANBILSEN Kenneth, JANS Roy and VAN LERBERGHE Bert in Memorial Rik Van Steenbergen on Belgium yesterday.

    But he finished behind all of them.

    Fellow sprinting heavyweights-in-the-making Mezgec and Schnaidt did not race.
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  • ram

    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #15 on: September 11, 2012, 17:42 »
    Mezgec is off to Argos, so Guardini's having his arse handed in a few more times in 3500 metres a few more times.
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  • Hugo Koblet

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #16 on: October 01, 2012, 14:02 »
    Guardini had a chance to prove himself against top sprinters like MARKUS Barry, VANBILSEN Kenneth, JANS Roy and VAN LERBERGHE Bert in Memorial Rik Van Steenbergen on Belgium yesterday.

    But he finished behind all of them.

    Fellow sprinting heavyweights-in-the-making Mezgec and Schnaidt did not race.
    Yet he still managed to finish ahead of Kittel, Chicchi and Feillu in the very same race.
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  • L'arri

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    Re: What Guardini needs to win races?
    « Reply #17 on: May 02, 2013, 11:45 »
    I note with deep interest that Guardini was 13th in yesterday's Dunkerque sprint behind Demare and top sprinters like Ramon Sinkeldam, Adrien Petit and Matteo Pelucchi.

    His awesome Astana train got him into a great position at the back of the bunch with 2km to go but this stealth tactic did not deliver him to the line as expected.

    If you look really closely, you can see Guardini there, barely a moment after he took off his S-Works Invisibility Cloak (beta):

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