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KeithJamesMc

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Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
« Reply #210 on: January 10, 2014, 11:30 »
Here are my January riders:

La Tropicale Amissa Bongo

GERDEMANN Linus
AUGUSTYN John-Lee

Tour San Luis

ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin
MOSER Moreno
BOONEN Tom
VANENDERT Jelle
YATES Adam
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney

Tour Down Under

ELISSONDE Kenny
BENNETT George
HAYMAN Mathew
VAN POPPEL Boy
MORTON Lachlan
MOHORIC Matej
EWAN Caleb
ALAPHILIPPE Julian

 :Party:
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  • froome19

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #211 on: January 10, 2014, 11:47 »
    La Tropicale Amissa Bongo

    SANCHEZ Luis Leon
    GERDEMANN Linus

    Tour de San Luis
    BETANCUR Carlos Alberto
    KESSIAKOFF Fredrik
    PHINNEY Taylor
    ANACONA Winner
    MOSER Moreno
    VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen
    VANENDERT Jelle
    BOONEN Tom
    DUARTE Fabio Andres

    Tour Down Under

    MORTON Lachlan
    DURBRIDGE Luke
    GOSS Matthew
    EWAN Caleb
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    cj2002

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #212 on: January 10, 2014, 11:57 »
    I wasn't expecting mine to be this many...

    Tropicale
    GERDEMANN Linus

    Tour San Luis
    MOSER Moreno
    HAEDO Juan Jose
    QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney
    BOONEN Tom
    SILVESTRE Fabio Andre Tomas
    KEOUGH Luke

    Tour Down Under
    DANIEL Maxime
    ARNDT Nikias   
    WESTRA Lieuwe
    DENNIS Rohan
    STANNARD Ian

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  • He shook his head sadly and told me that endemic drug use had compelled him to give up a promising career. "Even one small local race, prize was a salami, and I see doping!" - Tim Moore: Gironimo (Riding the Very Terrible 1914 Tour of Italy)

    mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #213 on: January 10, 2014, 12:21 »
    Ok everyone else is doing it........ so here is my January riders

    La Tropicale Amissa Bongo

    DEBRSAY ABRHA Frekalsi

    Tour San Luis

    KESSIAKOFF Fredrik
    QUINZIATO Manuel
    SAGAN Peter
    MOSER Moreno
    GATTO Oscar
    PAOLINI Luca
    QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney (U23)
    BOONEN Tom

    Tour Down Under

    AGNOLI Valerio
    ZABEL Rick (U23)
    MOHORIC Matej (U23)
    BETTIOL Alberto
    (U23)
    LECUISINIER Pierre-Henri
    HANSEN Adam

    Read em and weep  ;)

    nice i like it, can you just clarify your code, am i right in thinking if bold then in your u23 team, if the u23 is bolded in both teams, u23 not bold just in u23? or something similar?
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    Trudgin

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #214 on: January 10, 2014, 12:25 »
    Haha just means I added U23 after I bolded God yous are pernickety

    Yes U23 whether bold or not means my youth team

    On the pernikitiness - are you a Virgo
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  • I love Italian cycling, well cyclists & the odd Spaniard, oh & that 1 particular Slovakian  then there are those with names  that are great fun - zzzdnek steeeebar & Tieeeeeeeesj Benoooot

    mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #215 on: January 10, 2014, 13:06 »
    Haha just means I added U23 after I bolded God yous are pernickety

    Yes U23 whether bold or not means my youth team

    On the pernikitiness - are you a Virgo

    i completely dont believe in Astrology but yes I am a virgo (wonders if birthday is available on line somewhere - reinforcing the traits of a virgo).

    anyway I really liked that you added your youth team riders as well.
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #216 on: January 10, 2014, 14:09 »
    HAHA I knew it...

    not a believer in Astrology either but Virgos are always the same & I say that as one.  Although I'm pernikety about what I'm pernikety about. ;0))
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  • Arb

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #217 on: January 12, 2014, 06:08 »
    Ugh, I know I had him as a lock to win this but starting to really regret not having Gerrans now. Give it another 4 weeks and he will more or less be in profit. Really need Porte to come good on Wilunga.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #218 on: January 12, 2014, 07:01 »
    Something like 172 points from OZ nats RR

    Gerro mate 100
    Evans 60
    W clarke 7
    S Clarke 5

    if they use last years scoring
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Flo

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #219 on: January 12, 2014, 07:59 »
    0 points for me as expected
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    LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #220 on: January 12, 2014, 08:02 »
    30 points for Lapper. :D
    He's only 50 points from breakeven now. And he's an almost unique pick.
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  • Cyclingnews Women's WorldTour Correspondent
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    Views presented are my own. RIP Keith & Sean

    Flo

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #221 on: January 12, 2014, 08:10 »
    Meh Morton DNS
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #222 on: January 12, 2014, 10:30 »
    Something like 172 points from OZ nats RR

    Gerro mate 100
    Evans 60
    W clarke 7
    S Clarke 5

    if they use last years scoring

    I anticipate you'll be 3rd in the rankings...
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  • just some guy

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #223 on: January 12, 2014, 10:48 »
    I anticipate you'll be 3rd in the rankings...

    3rd dam thought 2nd

    Wizard of OZ then who ?
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #224 on: January 12, 2014, 10:52 »
    3rd dam thought 2nd

    Wizard of OZ then who ?

    greenedge had Hepburn/Howson from TT, and has Von Hoff and Gerro'mate in RR -> 195
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #225 on: January 12, 2014, 15:47 »
    ok the uncommon picks on my team

    Senechal (126 points, 3 teams) - strong, talented rider - should get some good chances on Cofidis in tough one day races, and maybe even stage races with short prologue and/or tough but not too hilly queen stages.  My hope is he'll do better than Mohoric at the same price and Alaphilippe in the same mold - both of whom will be lower down the pecking order at Cannondale and OPQS).  Will ride at La Tropicale Amissa Bongo.

    Watson - (6 points, 11 teams) - been following him since he punctured in the finale of one of the big u23 races 2 years ago, was on my youth team last year (and was a flop).  Shouldnt be too hard from him to get 50-60 profit just from finishing WT races and the odd top 15 in a 1.1.  In addition 1 or 2 really decent results in the kind of races I outlined for Senechal and he'll be a great pick.  Last year he won the Herald Sun Tour for no CQ points and didnt get many chances with his italian amateur team or the national team.  Will ride at Tour Down Under.

    Talansky - (755 points, 12 teams).  One of the rare riders that would have been a decent pick in every year in the game's history (cost year 1 = 76 > 229 > 683 > 755).  wanted him the first year but couldn't fit him in, very pleased to have him in year two.  Could easily have been at about 1000 points for 2013 if not for illness at Romandie, so I'm hoping that's the minimum full race season score for him in 2014.  Could podium 2 or 3 one week WT races, plus top 10 at the Tour, might take on the Vuelta too, or do well in the Canadian WT races in support of Ryder - to be edging in on 1500 points.

    Edmondson - (60 points, 17 teams).  decent year one at pro level, enough hints he can do well in hilly stages, short tours and one day races. 

    Markus - (209 points, 17 teams).  really wanted him in the team last year, and would have been if not to rearrange the team without Anacona after that injury came to light.  Shown he has the speed and strength to complete with the top sprinters and now with a team known for taking teams to SSR and beating up on the opposition. Would have done better in 2013 if not for a broken wrist.  Last time I picked a rider the year after a broken scaphoid he scored a pretty decent return.

    Next most uncommon riders are Stuyven (108, 22) and Adam Yates (55, 24), both of whom should go well.

    riders not in my team...

    Missed

    Colli
    Bisolti
    Riders yet to be determinted

    Not given enough consideration/omitted on potentially flawed reasoning

    Gerrans
    Coppel
    Duarte
    Kennaugh

    Popular Riders not selected

    Phinney - should do well, but could easily be little or no improvement points wise.
    Dombrowski - even though I had him at ~200 last year can't see him getting more than 250 this time round
    Vanendert - dont really rate him, suspicious his first good year was the same as Gilbert's epic year,  may need to be moved to the section above
    Mohoric - will a be a tough year (by many accounts he was having a tough year last year before the World Champs) on a Cannondale team with a lot of riders that'll be stronger/favoured by the team.  I have Senechal at the same price.
    Villella - could easily do very well, but expensive.

    Riders I'd have loved to find a place for

    Reza
    Wellens
    Dennis
    Latour
    Swift
    Bennett, Sam

    Relative failures from my team last year that could have easily returned

    Evans
    Dowsett
    Millar
    Howes
    Boswell
    Cattaneo
    Bobridge
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #226 on: January 12, 2014, 15:49 »
    Commonality of teams...

    Taking a hit and miss approach the most matches I can find is 22.

    Cykeltyven

    CraZyCaLL
    Wallenquist

    Wallenquist

    Cykeltyven

    CraZyCaLL

    Cykeltyven

    The Hitch

    Netserk
    RiaRoadTrip

    Netserk

    The Hitch

    RiaRoadTrip

    The Hitch

    If you want to know how many riders you have in common with other teams - cut and paste your team and insert it into Column E of 2014 results tab (over the riders already inserted by skidmark) and put 100 into Column I for all your riders.  Go to rankings and re order the rankings - you should be at the top with 3300 (assuming you have 33 riders).  teams directly below in the order are the most common with you (divide the score by 100 for number of riders matched).  Please post if you find any other 22 matches or if I've missed any higher ones.
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  • August

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #227 on: January 12, 2014, 16:20 »
    How do I re order the rankings?
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #228 on: January 12, 2014, 16:39 »
    How do I re order the rankings?

    in the cell where you would want No 1 to be  (under Rank) press the button with the a-z and an arrow down (sort ascending) might be slightly different depending on which programme you are using the spreadsheet in.

    hope that helps.
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  • August

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #229 on: January 12, 2014, 16:46 »
    Don't have a arrow down in the rank column on mine, probably have an older version of Excel. Looks like I can see the teams alike to me in the rank this week column though.
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  • mc_mountain

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #230 on: January 12, 2014, 16:55 »
    Don't have a arrow down in the rank column on mine, probably have an older version of Excel. Looks like I can see the teams alike to me in the rank this week column though.

    sorry, the A-Z will be in the one of the tool bars at the top rather than in the column... (i'm in openoffice as it happens)
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  • Flo

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #231 on: January 12, 2014, 17:26 »
    My team:
    CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto, 1228 points, 44 picks
    I am just hoping last year was a bad year for him and that he'll bounce back this year. I am not sure he'll be a good pick this year but I can't not pick him for such a low cost. I think he should be able to score at least 1800 points as he's scheduled to race La Vuelta.

    URAN URAN Rigoberto, 742 points, 73 picks
    It was him or EBH and since Uran will be OPQS's leader in the stage races I picked him but it was a close call. I hope he'll score 1250 points or more.

    STYBAR Zdenek, 645 points, 35 picks
    I think he'll do better in the classics this year, he would've podiumed, perhaps even won Paris-Roubaix last year if not for the supporter taking him out. He is a bit of a fangirl pick though but I am certain he will improve this year and I'm hoping for 1000 points.

    SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon, 380 points, 48 picks
    At first I wasn't sure if I'd pick him even after he signed with Caja Rural but he will be the undisputed leader in many races and I don't want to risk losing out on 1000 points. I think he'll score at least 700 points.

    ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon Darwin, 362 points, 19 picks
    I must say I am quite surprised only 18 others picked him. He's a great climber who could potentially score loads of points. I am hoping for 600 points.

    MOSER Moreno, 353 points, 105 picks
    A must-have, really. He may have been a bit lucky last year but he still has the potential to score many points. I predict 750 points for him.

    MARCATO Marco, 327 points, 13 picks
    In his last 5 seasons he scored more than this year each time. He is not very old yet, so I've got hope he'll score a lot of points with his new team. I think 700 points is definitely possible considering his average score for 2010-2012 is over 900.

    JANSE VAN RENSBURG Reinardt, 302 points, 9 picks
    A late addition who I hadn't really considered before. I'm not sure about him at all but I can hope. It can go both ways, but I'm hoping for 500 points.

    AMADOR BIKKAZAKOVA Andrey, 274 points, 4 picks
    I wanted to pick him last year but didn't in the end, and I almost started regretting it when I saw him in the classics, but then he broke his collarbone. He showed he can climb, TT and also did well in the classics so I couldn't leave him out again for even less points than last year. It depends on how many chances he gets to ride for himself but I'm gonna predict 400-500 points for him.

    ARU Fabio, 262 points, 86 picks
    I think Aru was great last year but it didn't really show in his points. I am hoping for a Majka-like season, he cost 260 points and scored 773 in 2013. 600 points for Aru is definitely possible I believe.

    VILLELLA Davide, 219 points, 40 picks
    219 points is expensive for a neo-pro, but Villella could score really well. I actually decided I'd pick him when he'd scored just 40-something points :P I think he could score over 400 points if all goes well.

    GOSS Matthew, 217 points, 106 picks
    Couldn't leave him out in case he'd start scoring big again, I don't expect it though, I am thinking around 400 points for Goss.

    RABOTTINI Matteo, 189 points, 3 picks
    My most unique pick. He's a late addition but I think he could do well. 300 points I think.

    ROSA Diego, 181 points, 12 picks
    I am really curious to see how he'll do this year, it'll be very interesting to follow him. I'm going to predict around 250 points for him.

    CRADDOCK Lawson, 175 points, 17 picks
    Last year I underestimated Argos's potential to develop talented climbers when I left out Barguil. I don't want to make the same mistake this year :P I think he'll be able to score a decent amount of points, somewhere in the 300-400 points range.

    YATES Simon, 164 points, 51 picks
    A big talent, I hope it will translate into points. I think he could score well but I'm not sure. I am hoping for at least 300 points.

    MORTON Lachlan, 159 points, 27 picks
    He did well in some American stage races last year, I hope he can do the same in Europe this year. I think 350 points is possible.

    BOONEN Tom, 139 points, 138 picks
    Tom Boonen for 139 points? A no-brainer, at least 1000 points for him.

    BOARO Manuele, 137 points, 4 picks
    This is the 3rd year in a row he's in my team, in 2012 he was a good pick, last year not so much but I'm confident he'll at least equal his 2012 score, so over 300 points. Plus, I like him.

    WELLENS Tim, 132 points, 11 picks
    I seriously considered him last year and in hindsight it's a good thing I didn't pick him. He's another late addition and I'm looking forward to seeing how he performs this year. I think 200 points is possible for him.

    MOHORIC Matej, 126 points, 44 picks
    He may be a bit too young to step up to WT level but I don't want to miss out in case he does really well. I am hoping for him to double his points.

    EWAN Caleb, 110 points, 58 picks
    With some "big" races on his schedule he should be able to score quite a few points on top of the points he'll score in U23 races. As I said before I think he'll be able to score 300-400 points.

    STUYVEN Jasper, 108 points, 22 picks
    I think he'll score a good number of points this year, nothing amazing but enough to make him a solid pick, 250-350 or something like that.

    SCHLECK Andy, 99 points, 127 picks
    If he underperforms again this year I'm done with him, but I think he'll do okay this year, he won't be as good as before 2012 but I think he'll score at least 400 points.

    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd, 97 points, 76 picks
    He didn't live up to my expectations last year but he deserves another chance especially because he is one of the few Sky riders I actually like. 250 points is doable I think.

    KENNAUGH Peter, 93 points, 40 picks
    I think he'll be Team Sky's next GC contender, at least 400 points for him.

    ZORDAN Andrea, 91 points, 15 picks
    Fermi suggested him, if Zordan fails I will blame him :P But I think he'll do well, 200 points at least.

    HEPBURN Michael, 71 points, 17 picks
    He was in my team last year but he didn't perform as I expected him to. This year I have high hopes for him again. The season has started well for him, I hope he will continue to win. I predict 300 points for him.

    SÜTTERLIN Jasha, 43 points, 14 picks
    I have to say I don't know much about him but he seems talented to me, looking at his results. If he can double his points I'm happy.

    KESSIAKOFF Fredrik, 42 points, 90 picks
    Another must-have. I'm not sure he'll reach his 2012 level but he should at least reach 150 points which is a great return whichever way you look at it.

    ANACONA GOMEZ Winner Andrew, 20 points, 51 picks
    He was injured last year, 300% return is guaranteed but I think he could even score around 300 points.

    CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban, 0 points, 89 picks
    Must-have, at least 250 points for him but I'm hoping for him.

    GERDEMANN Linus, 0 points, 89 picks

    Another must-have, I think he can score over 200 points.

    Riders I seriously considered:
    Zilioli, Howson, Poels, Bennati, Jungels, Navardauskas, Coppel

    Fail of the day :hb :
    Realizing I didn't pick Edmondson even though I was sure I did :S
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  • skidmark

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #232 on: January 12, 2014, 18:18 »
    Don't have a arrow down in the rank column on mine, probably have an older version of Excel. Looks like I can see the teams alike to me in the rank this week column though.

    I'm in openoffice too, but I think it's the same as excel... I click the column heading (like 'A', 'B', etc) to highlight the whole column, then from the top bar I select Data>Sort and click 'expand current selection' on the prompt (otherwise it will just sort the column and the other columns of associated data will be out of whack)... should allow you to choose to sort in ascending or descending order.
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #233 on: January 12, 2014, 18:31 »
    Where do I find the spreadsheet with the 2014 results tab?
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  • Flo

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #235 on: January 12, 2014, 18:57 »
    Most matches for me is Afrank and Wallenquist with 18 matches, 17 matches with Keith and 16 with Froomie, GP_Blanco, tomazo and mc

    Least matches is zero with Nicosix, 1 with olafjt's (almost) all belgian team (match is Gerdemann) and 2 with Dim (Uran and Stybar).

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  • Flo

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #236 on: January 12, 2014, 19:03 »
    Where do I find the spreadsheet with the 2014 results tab?

    You have 9 matches with Bicycle_Boy and The Amateur and 8 with Hugo Koblet and Yellow Knight

    0 matches with wizard_of_oz, Nicosix and olafjt
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #237 on: January 12, 2014, 19:08 »
    Thanks florrie.. I need to set stuff up in work no comp at home just iPad..
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  • skidmark

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #238 on: January 12, 2014, 21:21 »
    Most matches for me is Afrank and Wallenquist with 18 matches, 17 matches with Keith and 16 with Froomie, GP_Blanco, tomazo and mc

    Least matches is zero with Nicosix, 1 with olafjt's (almost) all belgian team (match is Gerdemann) and 2 with Dim (Uran and Stybar).

    Nicosix's zero matches seems to be due to a formula glitch (they definitely have some obvious picks, it showed up as zero for me but there were several matches when I looked), not sure how that happened but I'll try to fix it in time for update 1 right away.
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  • skidmark

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    Re: The 2014 CQ Ranking Manager Thread
    « Reply #239 on: January 12, 2014, 21:27 »
    (repost of what I wrote from CN forum yesterday; sorry, I'm new at this '2 forums' stuff but I think I wanna at least duplicate some discussion-generating posts)

    I always love the 'rider debate' part of the start of the season for this. Lotsa talk about Contador and Ewan, I figure it's a good time to detail my reasoning for picking my team, highest to lowest:

    Contador - listen, I don't expect pre-ban Contador levels of dominance, now or ever. I'd be pleasantly surprised, but that's not the point. The point is that he's a fantastic stage race rider, he still won the Vuelta post-ban so he's got lots of potential, just not a slam-dunk, and he was on the back foot last year for the first time in his career since really emerging in 2007. His approach this year can only be better, tactically and training-wise, now that he knows he can't waltz in and win all year long. Add the fact that he's doing 2 GTs and his points should go up to 1800-2200, making him more than worthwhile.

    Boasson Hagen - underachiever or not, he's still one of the most talented riders in the peloton, and Sky's got nobody who can do what he can do, in terms of top-level speed, getting over hills, and good TT ability (Thomas is okay but just not as good). One result in a long classic would be great, but if not I expect him to win stuff like the Hamburg race or GP Plouay or Montreal, if nothing else. Doubling of points is reasonable.

    Phinney - more of a 'safety' pick than a game-breaker. He'll do just fine if he performs year-round, is healthy for a GT, and shouldn't really get lower than 4th in the Worlds TT. His result in MSR last year was promising for races of length and the first time he's showed staying power on any kind of hill. MSR is harder this year, but if that transfers over to Flanders or E3, that's great; if not, there's still Roubaix and G-W. Shouldn't do worse than 6-700, I wouldn't be shocked (but pleasantly surprised) if he cracked 1000.

    Dennis - had a bit of bad luck last year (which has also carried over to this year it seems) but is too talented to leave off. His TT skills and good climbing should make him a threat, if not yet for stuff like P-N and Dauphine (although maybe), at least the American races and that thing coming up in Oz next week. 800 not unlikely.

    LL Sanchez - no-brainer, leader at Caja means he'll make the most of his opportunities. 1000 points.

    Moser - He's definitely better than last year showed. He had a really lucky first season, he might get back to that level of results, but even if not he's a solid pick.

    Van Den Broeck - not as great a pick as his obviousness suggests. Some riders are obvious because they were injured dramatically; he is one. But someone like Monfort, switching teams to become GT leader for 2 GTs while being a solid all-rounder, is about as lucrative a pick. If Monfort's points fit on my team I would have picked him instead. VdB is just fine, but I don't see him getting much more than 750 points, really.

    Hesjedal - had a horrible year, and even though his Giro results are somewhat mysterious in terms of why, I don't think it's a sign that 2012 was a flash in the pan. Could be solid (5-600), could be spectacular (2012 level).

    Le Bon - pleased to see he's my most unique pick as 5 people only picked him. I dunno, he's got good TT skills and looks real promising in the classics (2nd at Tro Bo Leon and 26th in his debut P-R). Plus he missed 3 months with injury. Certainly you can't just imagine 3 months worth of replaced points and expect them, along with age-related improvement, but I think there's enough there that he could be a great contributor and as much as triple. He'll have plenty of opportunities at least.

    Danny Van Poppel - I only didn't pick him last year because I thought he was too young. He proved me wrong, so I'm backing him this year, especially with Trek's dearth of top-level speed. Glad to read today that he's not riding a GT, he's good enough to place highly in a ton of smaller races and pull out the odd stage on a WT race. Don't know what to expect, but 5-700 wouldn't be crazy.

    Aru - if you need an explanation, just pay attention to him this year, because it means that you haven't been up until now. His results will speak for themselves.

    Brajkovic - I dunno if he'll have enough chances to really recoup with such a stacked lineup at Astana, but all it needs is something like a win at the Tour of Austria (I know, he won't do it if he does the Tour, but you know what I mean), and his record of seasons at more than double his cost make me hesitate to leave him out. One of the last additions, though.

    Goss - he can't do worse than last year. He can't.

    Battaglin - this is the third year in a row I've got him, so he's gotta produce sometime, right? Pre-crash Giro performance last year showed he's got the flash he was supposed to - with Modolo leaving, I'm crossing my fingers he gets more chances.

    Van Baarle - one of the last additions, I'm worried he may go the way of many dutch youngsters and underperform relative to the U23 ranks for a bit. That said, a solid TT and all-round resume should fit nicely with Garmin. I'm thinking more success in 2.1 North American races than ripping up the European scene. 500 points max, and could swing anywhere to below his price, but I'm hopeful.

    Craddock - another late addition, what got me was the fact that he'll have a good set of chances at the developing GiantShimano team. His 5th in the U23 TT was the last pleasant surprise last year, after the American races.

    Coppel - his inexplicable drop in results is worrisome, but it can't be worse, right? Although the curse of Cofidis kept me from picking both him and Taaramae, because that team just has too much incompetence that would break my heart if I had 2 of them.

    De Gendt - I don't actually know how well he'll do, he's pretty mercurial and he might be buried a bit at OPQS. The last addition to my team, if he shows up he can get 500.

    Boonen - no explanation necessary. Third time I've had this guy in 4 years.

    Howson - Great TTers always get some chances; I don't expect a first year as successful as Durbridge's, but there's gotta be some 3-day race or a few where he pulls out a top 5 based on good TT results.

    Sam Bennett - a late addition but I'm happy I included him, especially since he's relatively unique. What really got me was him beating Viviani (and only losing to Cav) in a stage of the ToB last year - even if that was the top of his ability, if he can pull that out a couple of times (and win a few of the smaller races he's sure to get a chance at with NetApp), he'll be more than worth it.

    Teklehaimanot - with more opportunities at MTN than Greenedge (plus hopefully no Visa problems this year), his much-vaunted 'engine' should carry him up the ladder of results. I went back and forth on him for awhile, but I decided in the end to throw my lot in with him.

    Ewan - yes there's a ceiling, but it's high enough to make it worthwhile, and the floor is high enough to make it a no-brainer. I can't see him doing worse in U23 races, and I could see him doing considerably better. The guy is money, he's been beating WT riders since he was 17, making him the most obvious sprint prospect I've ever seen. He finished 4th on an incredibly hard Worlds RR; on an easier course with a bigger sprint, he could easily win which would give him 36 extra points from that race alone. Throw in another Ncup win of 30 points, plus 50-100 points from the early Aussie races, plus the same from late-season stagaire races, and I see 300 as an easy bar for him to clear. Maybe not, but the lowest he can get makes him a non-gamble.

    Schleck - Turn his top 20 into a top 10 and give him a couple of other results for the year and it's hard to turn him down.

    Dombrowski - he's too good for last year's level to be where he's at again.

    Vanendert - meh, I threw him in at the end because he has enough opportunity to get 400 points, which is a fine return.

    Lutsenko - I didn't pick him last year because I thought he'd need a year to adjust; now he has it. No way Astana doesn't give a rider of his calibre from Kazakhstan a bunch of chances.

    Formolo - coming as an amateur without a team and getting top spots in Aosta and Avenir, combined with being on a Cannondale squad that has few overall contenders and a good amount of small Italian races, and he's worth the investment.

    Colli - see Vanendert, change to 350 points.

    Anacona - I shook my head at him last year. Why did Lampre not use him earlier (even after recovery from the broken ankle) with such an impressive showing at the Vuelta as a neo, especially with their lack of depth? Why did he do so poorly at the Vuelta? Tempted to not even take him until I saw he was starting at San Luis, which at least gave me hopes he might ride a full season.

    Chaves - of course.

    Gerdemann - of course.

    Thoughts? Disagreements?
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