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The Hitch

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Re: Sky
« Reply #780 on: July 06, 2013, 23:00 »
A common meme last year for the Skyphobics was to say that Wiggins Sky team victory looked just like USPS, therefore Sky doped, because USPS doped. I didnt see that parallel at all.
No you just made that up.

Quote
Wiggins never really delivered the killer blow in the way that Armstrong did. Just got the time in the TT and hung in there by and large. No real top class competition either and a parcours made for him.

I think the parallel of appearances can be made today much more justifiably. However that parallel can be also made to the pre EPO champions. Hinault and Lemond, as team mates, got so far ahead of the peloton they sat up and chatted for the final part of a mountain stage. Coppi, Bahamontes...etc etc etc

It was Bailsford who said that attack less cycling = clean cycling.
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  • Despite the self-serving data benders and associated propaganda to the contrary, I am led to believe that there are pockets of organised, highly sophisticated dopers, even within 'new age' cycling teams. Personally, I don't accept that the 'dark era' has ended, it has just morphed into a new guise.

    Dim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #781 on: July 07, 2013, 01:32 »
    Pretty funny the replies

    If you find racism and overt nationalism funny, i guess so. Frankly I think some of those people need to grow brain cells.
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  • AG

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #782 on: July 07, 2013, 02:23 »
    see I didnt really see much in that stage that induced skepticism in me (and I am a skeptic)

    Froome rides an attacking style.  He was never going to be happy setting a strong pace and just waiting till the end ...

    He knew that he was the strongest, so he set his team to doing whatever they could, and he would do the rest.

    I was surprised by how bad Contador looked on the bike.  In his usual riding, he simply doesnt look like that.  He is the epitome of style on the bike - even when he is at his limit.  He dances on the pedals ... and he definitely wasnt yesterday.   

    That to me tells me that it was more Alberto than Froome.   

    I was surprised by Cadel losing 4 minutes ... but again, that is more about Cadel.   Mollema and TenDam losing 1 minute or 2 to Froome - thats about expected if they are having a good day (well, an exceptional day from LTD).

    Froome went all out to destroy everyone.  He was clearly on his limit and did everything he could. 
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #783 on: July 07, 2013, 03:34 »
    see I didnt really see much in that stage that induced skepticism in me (and I am a skeptic)

    Froome rides an attacking style.  He was never going to be happy setting a strong pace and just waiting till the end ...

    He knew that he was the strongest, so he set his team to doing whatever they could, and he would do the rest.

    I was surprised by how bad Contador looked on the bike.  In his usual riding, he simply doesnt look like that.  He is the epitome of style on the bike - even when he is at his limit.  He dances on the pedals ... and he definitely wasnt yesterday.   

    That to me tells me that it was more Alberto than Froome.   

    I was surprised by Cadel losing 4 minutes ... but again, that is more about Cadel.   Mollema and TenDam losing 1 minute or 2 to Froome - thats about expected if they are having a good day (well, an exceptional day from LTD).

    Froome went all out to destroy everyone.  He was clearly on his limit and did everything he could.

    Did you hear that froome went faster than Armstrong ullrich vino etc 03 and only a couple of seconds slower than Armstrong 01?

    That's the info that truly shocked everyone. Anyway regarding ten dam and mollema why can't they also improve? You say you expected froome to beat them by a minute 20 s but presumably last year that would have been 30 s and the year before it would have been reverse and about 5 minutes. Cyclists change. Usually not as dramatically as froome and Porte but it's certainly possible that mollema and ten dam could also improve. In mollemas case he was quite a good climber always anyway and started cycling later than froome (so the he will become good later argument applies). They didn't just beat Contador afterall but also murito who last year was arguably the best climber in the world, Moreno, talansky, Evans, fuglsang etc
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  • AG

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #784 on: July 07, 2013, 04:05 »
    Good points.

    Mollema has always had the talent I think - just a matter of staying on his bike, and gaining some experience at measuring his effort.

    And no - I didnt realise it was that fast.   While that is concerning ...  it was a fairly short climb and early in the Tour

    wow - that sounds like I am making excuses :fp   But the truth is I suppose that I am already convinced with Froome anyway, so I just didnt find this ride that surprising. 
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  • Zam

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #785 on: July 07, 2013, 04:27 »
    Good points.

    Mollema has always had the talent I think - just a matter of staying on his bike, and gaining some experience at measuring his effort.

    And no - I didnt realise it was that fast.   While that is concerning ...  it was a fairly short climb and early in the Tour

    wow - that sounds like I am making excuses :fp   But the truth is I suppose that I am already convinced with Froome anyway, so I just didnt find this ride that surprising.
    What about Porte?
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  • Joachim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #786 on: July 07, 2013, 06:05 »
    No you just made that up.

    Ooh, an accusation of lying. classy.

    You know very well its true. Go and have a read in your beloved 'clinic' where any and every attempt is made to draw parallels between Sky and USPS.

    Quote
    It was Bailsford who said that attack less cycling = clean cycling.

    ...and do you disagree with that?


    I don't. But I guess you'll be telling me next that Maurice Garin used EPO.

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  • « Last Edit: July 07, 2013, 10:23 by Joachim »
    "You can't handle the truth"

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    AG

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #787 on: July 07, 2013, 06:58 »
    enough.

    Hitch and Joachim - be polite and friendly.  If you cannot, posts will be deleted and you will incur infractions.

    We can have this conversation without the snarky-ness. 
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  • AG

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #788 on: July 07, 2013, 07:02 »
    What about Porte?

    mmm - yeah.

    Porte I am still on the fence - actually he had the benefit of the doubt for me.   I guess thats where Hitch's points come in ... fastest for Froome means right up there for Porte ...

    He does have that amount of talent.  Its not just developed all of a sudden, he has shown that he had it right from the word go, that it would develop into this kind of ability isnt an enormous surprise. 

    Its a hard one.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #789 on: July 07, 2013, 07:23 »
    Froome time is scary

    It does not mean doping ( we need evidence more than our thoughts ) , but the results in cycling will probably mean another arms race.

    I have said my piece 're froome , I am just waiting for the evidence.

    My feeling is they are not doping as Wada code says, but the code will have to changed to included the x tech used by sky.

    The excuse of weak field etc does not count for much now as froome would have been smashing it with generation epo.

    Jumbled thoughts
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #790 on: July 07, 2013, 07:46 »
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #791 on: July 07, 2013, 09:07 »
    Did you hear that froome went faster than Armstrong ullrich vino etc 03 and only a couple of seconds slower than Armstrong 01?

    That's the info that truly shocked everyone. Anyway regarding ten dam and mollema why can't they also improve? You say you expected froome to beat them by a minute 20 s but presumably last year that would have been 30 s and the year before it would have been reverse and about 5 minutes. Cyclists change. Usually not as dramatically as froome and Porte but it's certainly possible that mollema and ten dam could also improve. In mollemas case he was quite a good climber always anyway and started cycling later than froome (so the he will become good later argument applies). They didn't just beat Contador afterall but also murito who last year was arguably the best climber in the world, Moreno, talansky, Evans, fuglsang etc

     I can't remember the exact circumstances of 2001, other than Roberto Laiseka winning.
     I shall have to dig the whole thing out of my library and watch again.

      2003 on the other hand, is hard to forget.
     Aix Trois was straight after the Cap Decouverte debacle, which saw a de-hydrated Armstrong crack completely in the extreme heat.
     The extreme heat persisted for this stage. Armstrong was sick, weakened and bluffing.
    He had his team set a steady tempo all the away up the Col de Pailhères that meant there was a very big bunch at the top.
     

     Final climb: What did Ullrich, Vino et al do? Very little, a few accelerations, sit up and slow down.
     Finally, with 2kms or so to go did Ullrich and Vino ride away from Lance.

     So, this comparison at least, is a shoe that totally does not fit.

     
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    myth1908

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #792 on: July 07, 2013, 09:26 »
    I can't remember the exact circumstances of 2001, other than Roberto Laiseka winning.
     I shall have to dig the whole thing out of my library and watch again.

      2003 on the other hand, is hard to forget.
     Aix Trois was straight after the Cap Decouverte debacle, which saw a de-hydrated Armstrong crack completely in the extreme heat.
     The extreme heat persisted for this stage. Armstrong was sick, weakened and bluffing.
    He had his team set a steady tempo all the away up the Col de Pailhères that meant there was a very big bunch at the top.
     

     Final climb: What did Ullrich, Vino et al do? Very little, a few accelerations, sit up and slow down.
     Finally, with 2kms or so to go did Ullrich and Vino ride away from Lance.

     So, this comparison at least, is a shoe that totally does not fit.
    In 2001, Laiseka won from a breakaway. Armstrong came on 2nd after he attacked Ullrich.
    These were the times on Ax 3 Domaines:
    Laiseka      22:57 (2001)
    Armstrong 22:59 (2001)
    Froome      23:14 2013 (2013)
    Giving the fact that it was epo era back then, and given the fact that both Armstrong are Laiseka are better, well..., Froome..., something smells.
    oh, and here is the race from 2001 (90 minutes):
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  • Joachim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #793 on: July 07, 2013, 09:36 »
    It does not mean doping ( we need evidence more than our thoughts ) , but the results in cycling will probably mean another arms race.

    I have said my piece 're froome , I am just waiting for the evidence.

    My feeling is they are not doping as Wada code says, but the code will have to changed to included the x tech used by sky.

    This is top level professional sport. You can be sure that everybody has the tips of their toes right up against the line....and of course some, like Di Luca, have been shown to have stepped over.

    I'd agree that the line will need moving if riders are found to be adopting dubious techniques that give them an advantage.  At the moment it is 'if'. Nothing more.

    Quote
    The excuse of weak field etc does not count for much now as froome would have been smashing it with generation epo.

    Jumbled thoughts

    There is a massive problem with hypothetical comparisons and Mellow Velo's last post illustrates it perfectly. Unfortunately, easily digested alleged 'facts' such as 'faster ever TT/climb etc etc spread like wildfire on the internet and quickly become assumed truisms upon which new theories are built.

    If the premises are shaky then so are the conclusions......although by sheer coincidence they may also be true ;)

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  • Havetts

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #794 on: July 07, 2013, 10:31 »
    I wasnt too surprised today. Froome looked right on the rivet, Contador, Evans were both pretty poor.. Hell, Belkin filled two of the top 5 spots.. :fp

    Why does it matter who you gain time on? Why cant the other guys improve like supposedly Cleany Chris did? Plus, it doesnt matter who you drop if you ride the climb faster than Armstrong did in 2001, so the argument that Froome brought forward that its only possible to do this in a non-doped era is stupid because he rode faster than Armstrong in 2001, he only lost time on the flat part at the end of the climb.

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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #795 on: July 07, 2013, 10:41 »
     Well, If Myth's post is accurate, then we can see that he didn't climb it faster than Armstrong in 2001.

     The trouble with direct time comparisons are that there are a whole clutch of variables that cannot be factored in.
     Obvious with the 2003 ascent and also true of 2001.
     Folks will take what they want from the limited data available.
     Some accurate (non-forum) power stats would be preferable.


     Anyhow, I hear there's a race going on in the LC.
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #796 on: July 07, 2013, 12:10 »
    Why does it matter who you gain time on? Why cant the other guys improve like supposedly Cleany Chris did? Plus, it doesnt matter who you drop if you ride the climb faster than Armstrong did in 2001, so the argument that Froome brought forward that its only possible to do this in a non-doped era is stupid because he rode faster than Armstrong in 2001, he only lost time on the flat part at the end of the climb.
    Because we're all trying to benchmark that performance. The :fp was a bit mean perhaps, but the point that the winning margin was so big because those riders who had been expected to finish between LTD /Mollema and Froome didn't perform, has some merit.

    Personally, it stretched credibility but it's not a black and white thing.
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  • The Hitch

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #797 on: July 07, 2013, 12:22 »
    Well, If Myth's post is accurate, then we can see that he didn't climb it faster than Armstrong in 2001.


    No. He climbed it a couple of seconds slower. Would have been 3rd on that stage.

    So what your saying is clean chris froome is a couple of seconds slower than Armstrong on a doping programme immune from drug test.

    How fast would froome have gone if you put him on an doping programme then? Madone it would have been like watching 2009 Contador ride the Tour de Lavenir.  And that isnt hyperbole.
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  • Kvinto

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #798 on: July 07, 2013, 14:43 »
    Having Wiggo as a good example I tend to think that for the sheer sake of cycling Froome should be knighted in advance   :niceday
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  • "Women buy stuff at sales for the same reason men climb mountains - because they're there" (from 'Under the Dome' by Stephen King)

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #799 on: July 07, 2013, 16:19 »
    No. He climbed it a couple of seconds slower. Would have been 3rd on that stage.

    So what your saying is clean chris froome is a couple of seconds slower than Armstrong on a doping programme immune from drug test.

    How fast would froome have gone if you put him on an doping programme then? Madone it would have been like watching 2009 Contador ride the Tour de Lavenir.  And that isnt hyperbole.

    No. I am not saying that.
    I'm saying that the stage was raced quite differently and a different point in the event, so it isn't possible just to compare times to reach an accurate conclusion.

    Oddly enough, I'm just catching up with last night's Avondetappe and it's the exact topic on the table.
    With the same responses, too.



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  • Dim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #800 on: July 07, 2013, 16:43 »
    Firstly, im not making any comments about wether Froome is or is not doping, but for me, the idea of taking purely timings on climbs as some sort of evidence is borderline pointless.

    First up:
    Timings - Ive no idea who worked out the timings and decided Froome's time v Lance. Ive timed the climb from the exact point the climb officially starts and his climb time was 21m31 for the 7800 metres of climbing.  Armstrongs time for the same stretch based on a four minute gap when the leader hit the climb is approx 19m22, assuming a leaway of about a minute by the time Armstrongs group actually hit the climb, we can put Armstrongs time at a max of 20m22 (the comms ive seen claim teh gap was 3 minutes by the climb)

    Tactics Armstrong started the day with a considerable lead over Ullrich, nearly five minutes, and did not attack on the climb till less than 1km from the summit. Froome attacked with more than 4km to go, and started the day seperated by only seconds from the other GC contenders.

    Stage Position IN 2001 the stage was preceded by a mountain time trial, and a stage to Alpe d'Huez - in 2013 It was the first mountain stage after a relatively easy first week.

    In short, to compare times for a climb, especially when innacurate, when there is a difference in tactics, a difference in position of the stage within the race, is utterly pointless and totally innacurate science.

    This isnt a defence of Froome, this is an attack of pointless logic. We can possible look at climbing times over the entire three weeks, look at overall mountain performance, and then make judgement, but we cant make judgements over one stage.

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  • L'arri

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #801 on: July 07, 2013, 16:48 »
    ... based on a four minute gap when Bartoli hit the climb is approx 19m22 ...

    Bettini?
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  • Cycling is a Europe thing only and I only watch from Omloop on cause I am cool and sh*t
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    Dim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #802 on: July 07, 2013, 16:50 »
    yeh, sorry, my bad, was writing, watching tweeting all at once.
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  • L'arri

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #803 on: July 07, 2013, 16:53 »
    yeh, sorry, my bad, was writing, watching tweeting all at once.

    It's probably the Wimbledon influence, right?  :D
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  • Joachim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #804 on: July 07, 2013, 21:07 »
    David Miller's blog in L'Equipe might pee a few people off  :D


    http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme-sur-route/Actualites/-on-a-montre-l-exemple/384270
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  • KeithJamesMc

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #805 on: July 07, 2013, 21:49 »
    David Miller's blog in L'Equipe might pee a few people off  :D
    Why? It is great and spot on. I love #garmin for what they did today.

    How do you beat the numbers and calculations of Sky?

    You throw in a scenario that they hadn't planned for, of course.
    And use collective team spirit and the will to try something different.
    If not out innovate, at least confuse the opposition.
    #garmin are effectively embracing guerilla warfare to beet the collective might of #sky
    Even better is that they are saying to the rest of the peloton "Come and join in the fun in the Alps and lay waste to the Kerrison Spreadsheets"

    But what #garmin exposed today is the low IQ and hubris of Froome.
    - why did he put all his team into the red on the first climb?
    - why did he try to block the road which resulted in his #3 SkyTrain Kennaugh in the ditch? The planned #3 Thomas is in a personal "broken hip" ditch trying best to help out, but not really that useful. His #4 Kiryenka has been eliminated. And #5 Lopez and #6 Siutso are suffering from a real drop in form. Did the spreadsheets not tell them that?
    - but most importantly, the wish to do something different to the #tdf2012 proven model and be seen as more exciting than Wiggo is pathetic. Or, at least, when Kerrison and Brailsford sit down on the rest day and crunch the numbers, risky.

    I am very confident that if #sky had Sean Yates in the car, Shane Sutton barking orders off the road and Mick Rogers barking orders on the road - none of this would have happened.

    Now rather than having confidence that spreadsheets and scenario planning will work out, Brailsford and Kerrison are crossing their fingers.

    I love that and thank you Vaughters and Wegelius and #garmin
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  • benotti69

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #806 on: July 07, 2013, 22:20 »
    Riche Porte was barely tired giving an interview as he crossed the finish line yesterday after pacing Froome and then continuing on for second and today was dropped?

    Froome didn't look troubled at all today?

    Was it part of some elaborate plan?

    This sport has produced so much unbelievable stuff in its history that anything is possible.
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    Joachim

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #807 on: July 07, 2013, 22:35 »
    Why? It is great and spot on. I love #garmin for what they did today.

    How do you beat the numbers and calculations of Sky?

    You throw in a scenario that they hadn't planned for, of course.
    And use collective team spirit and the will to try something different.
    If not out innovate, at least confuse the opposition.
    #garmin are effectively embracing guerilla warfare to beet the collective might of #sky
    Even better is that they are saying to the rest of the peloton "Come and join in the fun in the Alps and lay waste to the Kerrison Spreadsheets"

    But what #garmin exposed today is the low IQ and hubris of Froome.
    - why did he put all his team into the red on the first climb?
    - why did he try to block the road which resulted in his #3 SkyTrain Kennaugh in the ditch? The planned #3 Thomas is in a personal "broken hip" ditch trying best to help out, but not really that useful. His #4 Kiryenka has been eliminated. And #5 Lopez and #6 Siutso are suffering from a real drop in form. Did the spreadsheets not tell them that?
    - but most importantly, the wish to do something different to the #tdf2012 proven model and be seen as more exciting than Wiggo is pathetic. Or, at least, when Kerrison and Brailsford sit down on the rest day and crunch the numbers, risky.

    I am very confident that if #sky had Sean Yates in the car, Shane Sutton barking orders off the road and Mick Rogers barking orders on the road - none of this would have happened.

    Now rather than having confidence that spreadsheets and scenario planning will work out, Brailsford and Kerrison are crossing their fingers.

    I love that and thank you Vaughters and Wegelius and #garmin

    I missed the first part of the race, but from what I understand Garmin put on the hurt from the word go, with Movistar taking over and Saxo sitting there but not doing much. I think Sky got murdered, with the exception of Froome who was pretty impressive.  Garmin got the stage but I don't think that was a Sky objective. I would have thought that Sky would have just wanted to maintain their lead going into the rest day.

    It is strange that Porte blew. I don't buy all this tin-foil hat stuff about him feigning. Why would you feign your way off the podium and gc and isolate your leader?

    But anyway, the point I was making about Millars blog is that it was a bit of a eulogy for Sky and their analytical approach.

    I think we'll see a repeat of todays tactics day in day out in the Alps, and if Froome still sports the yellow in Paris, he'll have earned it.

    Alberto is the dark horse.
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  • KeithJamesMc

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #808 on: July 07, 2013, 23:05 »
    Quote
    I missed the first part of the race, but from what I understand Garmin put on the hurt from the word go, with Movistar taking over and Saxo sitting there but not doing much. I think Sky got murdered, with the exception of Froome who was pretty impressive.  Garmin got the stage but I don't think that was a Sky objective. I would have thought that Sky would have just wanted to maintain their lead going into the rest day.
    #tdf2012 sky got 1-2
    #tdf2013 sky will not get 1-2

    #garmin created anarchy. I think #movistar was happy with Porte being out of contention for the podium.
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    It is strange that Porte blew. I don't buy all this tin-foil hat stuff about him feigning. Why would you feign your way off the podium and gc and isolate your leader?
    Porte blew because he was shagged from yesterday and Froome asked him to work too hard on the first climb. Perhaps, Froome was worried about Kennaugh crashing. Porte was not feigning he was trying for three climbs to get back on, but Movistar set a pace to keep him away.

    For Porte this stage was a disaster for his market value.
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    But anyway, the point I was making about Millars blog is that it was a bit of a eulogy for Sky and their analytical approach.
    I read it as more as the need to adopt different tactics to beat the analytical approach. I may be wrong. Wegelius designed the stage strategy and I suspect he is more tuned to the "social" side of the sport (ie teamwork) than the "scientific" side of the sport (ie Watts)
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    I think we'll see a repeat of todays tactics day in day out in the Alps, and if Froome still sports the yellow in Paris, he'll have earned it.
    Agree and furthermore there will be partnerships between teams.
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    Alberto is the dark horse.
    Alberto was never the dark horse. He was and still is #2 for yellow. I think the dark horse is Quintana.
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  • froome19

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    Re: Sky
    « Reply #809 on: July 07, 2013, 23:09 »
    I missed the first part of the race, but from what I understand Garmin put on the hurt from the word go, with Movistar taking over and Saxo sitting there but not doing much. I think Sky got murdered, with the exception of Froome who was pretty impressive.  Garmin got the stage but I don't think that was a Sky objective. I would have thought that Sky would have just wanted to maintain their lead going into the rest day.

    It is strange that Porte blew. I don't buy all this tin-foil hat stuff about him feigning. Why would you feign your way off the podium and gc and isolate your leader?

    But anyway, the point I was making about Millars blog is that it was a bit of a eulogy for Sky and their analytical approach.

    I think we'll see a repeat of todays tactics day in day out in the Alps, and if Froome still sports the yellow in Paris, he'll have earned it.

    Alberto is the dark horse.
    A eulogy very possibly, but the fact is that the end of the day Froome is the riders in the yellow jersey and I would bet on him taking it all the way to Paris. So Sky win the Tour de France two consecutive years in a row, I don't think they will be abandoning their analytical approach anytime soon.

    What was interesting to me was the rise of #movistar I have read quite a bit from them and especially a couple of interviews from Alex Dowsett where he said that there really hasn't been much difference between Sky and Movistar, Movistar indeed also are very prepared and are constantly furthering their science etc. So to me they seem to be second in that arms race behind #sky and the results certainly for them are paying off. Conversely #bmc who are all the way at the back of the arms race and present a much more relaxed, less sciency approach are currently epicly failing. It does tell you something about where the future of cycling is heading in my opinion. Of course as Saint David says quite correctly that is not all about where it is at as #movistar showed today. Sky are too much weighted in that direction maybe, but nevertheless analytical racing does seem to be where all the trumps cards are and so what #garmin wins a stage, but #sky are still in the ascendancy and that is basically what Millar says as far as I see. It can maybe provide you with an edge and edges are always welcome in Pro cycling but in the long run you need more than just an edge (that is a bit of my own spin on the whole matter)

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