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Armchair Cyclist

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Re: 2015-17 Emerging Riders CQ game
« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2017, 23:30 »
The Final Analysis

There will probably be a post script at around New Year with minor tweaks to scores, but I see no point in delaying the presentation


Year 3, Month 10 25th Sept to 5th November  (and effectively the end of relevant racing)

The last month of the game sees almost the biggest individual score in a month (Gaviria scored slightly higher in the Giro than Mareczko did in rather lower profile races in this month)
MARECZKO Jakub   423   pts (5 stage wins and the GC in Taihu Lake, then 5 more stage wins in Hainan) for 17 teams
MOSCON Gianni   241  (5th in Giro dell'Emilia, 7th in Tre Valli Varesine, 3rd in Il Lombardia)  for Jakob747, Madrazo and Nuvolablu
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   205    (4 stage wins and a 2nd, and the points classification, in Guangxi) for 14 teams
MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe   192    (9th in Tre Valli Varesine, 7th in Milano-Torino, 4th GC in Turkey) for Ruudz0r
MOHORIC Matej   161 (Hong Kong Challenge win, Guangxi 6th in GC) 15 teams
DE BUYST Jasper   151 pts   9 teams
MCLAY Daniel   140   4
GODOY Yonder Eduardo   111   1 (Rote Laterne)
NAESEN Oliver   108   10
ARSLANOV Ildar   105   1 (Leadbelly)
OOMEN Sam   102   2 (Leadbelly and MCMountain)


The winner finishes with a flourish, taking the monthly top spot yet again:
1   Madrazo   1310 (Mareczko, Moscon, Gaviria, Mohoric, Naesen)
2   Jakob747   1207 (Mareczko, Moscon, Gaviria, McLay, Naesen)
3   Nuvolablu   1172(Mareczko, Moscon, Mohoric, De Buyst)
4   Blues_in_the_Bottle   1144  (Mareczko, Gaviria, Mohoric, De Buyst)
5   HugoKoblet   1105   (Mareczko, Gaviria, Mohoric, De Buyst)
6   Ruudz0r   1027  (Mareczko, Gaviria, Martinez)
7   ItalianGigolo   960
8   Karaev   956
9   Kazistuta   939
10   Joelsim   917
11   Josedin   880
12   HilltopFinisher   870
13   Vladimir   786
14   GPBlanco   785
15   Multispeed   759
16   The_Fool_on_the_Hill   735
17   Skidmark   634
18   AlPacino   631
19   Armchair_Cyclist   470
20   Leadbelly   455
21   Del1962   416
22   Alykaptan   411
23   Ludwigzgz   394
24   RoteLaterne   375
25   Asdfgh101   367
26   Snccdcno   363
27   GeraintTooFast   309
28   MCMountain   307
29   Scrooll07   292
30   Flo   287
31   DJSprtsch   270
32   Mutschi   203
33   Comodoro   168
   CollectiveWisdom   1286

Final Positions
Madrazo and Joelsim have been the top two since the end of year 1, with Madrazo taking the lead at the beginning of May 2016, and never losing that top spot, although Joelsim remained in close contention until the last few months.  The third podium spot has been more closely contested, and Jakob defended it with his second place this month.  Novalablu manages a late burst of 4 places to get into the top 5, and Hugo Koblet, Italian Gigolo and Kazistuta also managed to rise a bit in the top ten.

1   Madrazo   17158
2   Joelsim   15749
3   Jakob747   14214
4   HugoKoblet   13969
5   Nuvolablu   13611
6   Skidmark   13590
7   ItalianGigolo   13430
8   Multispeed   13415
9   Kazistuta   12921
10   MCMountain   12787
11   Blues_in_the_Bottle   12749
12   Vladimir   12660
13   Leadbelly   12354
14   Karaev   12081
15   GPBlanco   11950
16   Ruudz0r   11684
17   HilltopFinisher   11401
18   Alykaptan   11041
19   Asdfgh101   10967
20   The_Fool_on_the_Hill   10755
21   Josedin   10680
22   Ludwigzgz   10059
23   GeraintTooFast   9767
24   Snccdcno   9763
25   RoteLaterne   9697
26   AlPacino   9236
27   Armchair_Cyclist   9052
28   Del1962   8621
29   Mutschi   8459
30   Comodoro   8066
31   Flo   7924
32   Scrooll07   5462
33   DJSprtsch   4627
   CollectiveWisdom   13911

Before we celebrate our successes (well, some teams can), admission of our joint failure in the Collective Ignorance team: the highest scoring 18 riders that none of us picked in January 2015:
CALMEJANE Lilian   1284
TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres   1131
CLAEYS Dimitri   1016
BETTIOL Alberto   1015
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh   983
CAMPENAERTS Victor   967
MEURISSE Xandro   914
VAN AERT Wout   854
MARTIN Guillaume   785
FRAILE MATARRANZ Omar   783
SMITH Dion   779
BEVIN Patrick   775
VAN LERBERGHE Bert   750
LAPORTE Christophe   736
ROSON GARCIA Jaime   735
TRATNIK Jan   714
ALARCON GARCIA Raul   696
JENSEN August   684
Total     15601 and 3rd place in the table.

A significant feature in the game is that Gaviria, the second best scorer, would probably have been on that list if the entries had closed in early or mid-January.  None of the teams submitted before his breakthrough in the Tour de San Luis named him, but once he had beaten Cavendish twice in a row he suddenly started being included in most teams that came in.  So waiting until nearer the deadline proved to be key: Novulablu, Multispeed and MCMountain were the only ones who made the top ten without him.


The Fruits of our Thoughts team are the best of those that we did pick, even if it was only by virtue of one inspired participant as in the case of the best scorer in the game:

ROGLIC Primoz   2313pts   1 team (MCMountain)
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   2252   14 teams
NAESEN Oliver   2168   10
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel   1689   28
MOSCON Gianni   1606   3 (Jakob747, Madrazo and Nuvolablu)
LATOUR Pierre   1551   23
MARECZKO Jakub   1489   17
KÜNG Stefan   1209   21
BUCHMANN Emanuel   1080   6
MCLAY Daniel   1007   4 (Alykaptan, Comodoro, Jakob747, Kazistuta)
OOMEN Sam   992   2  (Leadbelly and MCMountain)
PEDERSEN Mads   848   2 (asdfgh101, Comodoro)
DE BUYST Jasper   835   9
MOHORIC Matej   759   15
GEOGHEGAN HART Tao   748   9
SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   738   2  (Asdfgh101 and Blues in the Bottle)
TURGIS Anthony   727   1 (Novulablu)
VENTURINI Clément   678   1 (Josedin)

Total              22,689

And combining these, we see the best possible team:
ROGLIC Primoz   2313
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   2252
NAESEN Oliver   2168
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel   1689
MOSCON Gianni   1606
LATOUR Pierre   1551
MARECZKO Jakub   1489
CALMEJANE Lilian   1284
KÜNG Stefan   1209
TORRES AGUDELO Rodolfo Andres   1131
BUCHMANN Emanuel   1080
CLAEYS Dimitri   1016
BETTIOL Alberto   1015
MCLAY Daniel   1007
OOMEN Sam   992
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh   983
CAMPENAERTS Victor   967
MEURISSE Xandro   914
Total     24666

Madrazo's winning score is, therefore, 69.6% of the maximum possible, an improvement on the previous winning performance, and ahead of the leading score in the other in-progress games.  Only 13 of us managed more than half of what was possible.


Madrazo's team has 7 of those best possible picks: his full winning selection was:
GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      2252
NAESEN Oliver      2168
LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel      1689
MOSCON Gianni      1606
LATOUR Pierre      1551
MARECZKO Jakub      1489
KÜNG Stefan      1209
MOHORIC Matej      759
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian      615
VLIEGEN Loïc      610
BOUDAT Thomas      563
SENNI Manuel      509
VAN DER POEL Mathieu      471
MANZIN Lorrenzo      425
WACKERMANN Luca      354
QUINTANA ROJAS Dayer Uberney      331
POWER Robert      299
VERVAEKE Louis      258

Although the margin looks large, it would only have taken Joelsim to replace his poorest scorer (Contreras) with Moscon (not as well regarded, or as contentious, then as he is now) to give a different winner. 


Other riders who you could have been reasonably satisfied with as picks (500 pts +)
BACKAERT Frederik   660pts    0 teams
EIKING Odd Christian   639   10
GIDICH Yevgeniy   634   0
POLITT Nils   621   0
HENAO GOMEZ Sebastian   615   24
VLIEGEN Loïc   610   3
WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads   589   0
SPRENGERS Thomas   588   3
RÄIM Mihkel   579   0
CONSONNI Simone   570   0
PÖSTLBERGER Lukas   566   0
ORTEGA RAMIREZ Mauricio   564   0
BOUDAT Thomas   563   16
SARREAU Marc   562   3
AVILA VANEGAS Edwin Alcibiades   557   0
BAZHKOU Stanislau   552   0
MARINI Nicolas   551   1
GAUDU David   550   0
HUFFMAN Evan   544   0
ANTUNES Amaro Manuel Reposo   539   0
GERTS Floris   531   0
ROOSEN Timo   529   3
CAPIOT Amaury   528   1
GARCIA DE MATEOS RUBIO Vicente   528   0
WALSCHEID Maximilian   527   0
MOAZEMI GOUDARZI Arvin   524   0
JARAMILLO DIEZ Daniel Alexander   513   1
WARBASSE Larry   512   2
SENNI Manuel   509   4
KAMP Alexander   504   0


And those who some of us chose, but really shouldn't have (<50 points):
LECUISINIER Pierre-Henri   47pts   3 teams
BARTA William   46   1
CAM Maxime   35   1
WATSON Calvin   35   1
HOLOWESKO Liam   24   1
MCEVOY Jonathan   21   1
KERRISON Jesse   21   2
KLARIS Magnus Bak   15   1
HAVIK Piotr   15   1
AFFINI Edoardo   13   1
BOUHANNI Rayane   5   3
GIBSON Matthew   5   1
BOLIVAR HERNANDEZ Isaac   0   4
ZORDAN Andrea   0   3
OWSIAN Arkadiusz   0   1


And the annual top tens:

Year 1 (2015, 23% of total)
1   Joelsim   3777
2   Madrazo   3501
3   Multispeed   3492
4   ItalianGigolo   3217
5   Leadbelly   3151
6   MCMountain   3064
7   Vladimir   3034
8   HilltopFinisher   2997
9   Nuvolablu   2992
10   Jakob747   2893


Year 2 (2016, 34%)
1   Madrazo   5924
2   Joelsim   5394
3   Jakob747   4890
4   HugoKoblet   4890
5   Skidmark   4873
6   Leadbelly   4766
7   ItalianGigolo   4649
8   Kazistuta   4636
9   Nuvolablu   4624
10   Multispeed   4496


Year 3 (2017, 43%)
1   Madrazo   7733
2   Joelsim   6578
3   Jakob747   6431
4   Blues_in_the_Bottle   6298
5   HugoKoblet   6212
6   Nuvolablu   5995
7   Skidmark   5941
8   MCMountain   5699
9   ItalianGigolo   5564
10   Kazistuta   5532


So, well done to Madrazo, to the rest of the podium, and to all who found some gems 3 years ago.  And to anyone who can work out what went wrong with all the other riders we had so much hope in at the beginning of the game.  And thanks to all who have taken part.

All the stats are here
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2015-17 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #61 on: November 09, 2017, 09:27 »
    Thanks Armchair for your efforts and congrats to Madrazo (though since he's a CN-er he won't see this).

    Looking back at my team there seems to be a lot of deadwood, so being in the top-ten for quite a while before dropping down to 13th near the end is quite surprising. Having Naesen, Lopez and Latour probably accounts for that.

    Quote
    In the context of a 3 year game, knowing the points from a few southern hemisphere races in one month is of negligible value.

    2000 points later. :P

    If I remember correctly it was a conscious decision not to change my team and include Gaviria after his exploits in San Luis, so my final league position might have been even better depending on who I replaced with him, but I was happy not to indulge in such shady behaviour.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: 2015-17 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #62 on: November 09, 2017, 13:53 »
    Cheers AC.

    Yay, a podium.

     :D
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2015-17 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #63 on: November 16, 2017, 17:49 »
    The ever-attentive Squire has pointed out at Velorooms that I omitted Bernal from my analysis.

    I updated the list of riders from the CQ updates during year 1, but not subsequently, and Bernal wasn't on the CQ database last time I did.  I'll try to keep an eye out for that in future.

    With 925 points, he comes in at 7th in the Collective Ignorance team, pushing that team higher than Joelsim, and nudges Meurisse out of the best possible team, taking the 18th and final spot.
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