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Sylvester

  • Domestic Rider
  • Country: 00
  • Posts: 126
  • Liked: 38
Dice simulation: Giro randomness
« on: May 18, 2012, 13:46 »
As I couldn't get to sleep last night due to the excitement of the AMGEN Tour of California, I decided to simulate the Giro by throwing dice in Excel (I'm glad my girlfriend doesn't read this forum). Every km of a tappa equates to a dice roll in the game. In case of an ex aequo for 1st place, an additional dice roll determines the winner.

I like the utter randomness of the stage results thus far:

Stage: 1 - 5 May : Herning ITT, 8 km: 1. Leezer 39 2. Brown 3. Montaguti; maglia rosa: Leezer
Stage: 2 - 6 May : Herning, 206 km: 1. Vanendert 808 2. Bono 3. Casar; maglia rosa: Vanendert
Stage: 3 - 7 May : Horsens, 190 km: 1. Barta 725 2. Bulgac 3. Mazzanti; maglia rosa: Meier
Stage: 4 - 9 May : Verona TTT ITT, 32 km: 1. Beppu 150 2. Rasch 3. Demare; maglia rosa: Meier
Stage: 5 - 10 May : Modena - Fano, 209 km: 1. Eisel 794 2. Garate 3. Vicioso; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 6 - 11 May : Urbino - Porto Sant'Elpidio, 210 km: 1. Barta (cannibal!) 751 2. Capecchi 3. Cataldo; maglia rosa: Perget
Stage: 7 - 12 May : Recanati - Rocca di Cambio, 205 km: 1. Bonnet 778 2. Ulissi 3. Capecchi; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 8 - 13 May : Sulmona - Lago Laceno, 229 km: 1. Niermann 867 2. Smukulis 3. Izagirre; maglia rosa: Pauwels
Stage: 9 - 14 May : San Giorgio nel Sannio - Frosinone, 166 km: 1. Bodnar 657 2. Marczynski 3. Bakelants; maglia rosa: Pauwels

The GC now looks like this:

Code: [Select]
1 Pauwels 5303
2 Perget 5273
3 Meier 5264
4 Barta 5255
5 Nieve 5247
6 Casar 5244
7 Smukulis 5241
8 Stetina 5226
9 Mourey 5215
10 Pietropolli 5215
11 Izagirre 5214
12 Marczynski 5208
13 Bodnar 5207
14 Carrara 5206
15 Capecchi 5200
16 Kuschynski 5199
17 Tiralongo 5195
18 Rujano 5194
19 Hermans 5194
20 Pardilla 5194
24 Schleck 5177
29 Pinotti 5162
36 Scarponi 5155
42 Henao 5149
73 Jo. Rodriguez 5123
97 Basso 5104
98 Pozzovivo 5104
102 Pirazzi 5100
118 Goss 5084
122 Moreno 5082
131 Hesjedal 5073
132 Szmyd 5073
135 Cavendish 5071
137 De Gendt 5069
138 Slagter 5069
144 Cunego 5064
146 Pozzato 5060
147 Gadret 5059
148 Hushovd 5059
151 Farrar 5056
161 Cataldo 5043
166 Uran 5040
172 Intxausti 5024
182 Phinney 5007
183 Kreuziger 5005
198 Thomas 4885


As we all love silly games, I might as well try to develop this game, make it somewhat interactive, (incorporating mountains, TTT's, etc., maybe even trying to get more realistic results) in view of the TdF. I don't know how, but maybe you guys do. Meanwhile I'll keep you posted: will SERGE PAUWELS retain his slim lead? Will JAN BARTA win yet another stage? And may we expect some TOTAL RUJANO DOMINATION during the last "week"?
  • ReplyReply

  • Sylvester

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 126
    • Liked: 38
    Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
    « Reply #1 on: May 18, 2012, 14:26 »
    Stage: 10 - 15 May : Civitavecchia - Assisi, 186 km: 1. Mazzanti 711 2. Kwiatkowski 3. Maes; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 11 - 16 May : Assisi - Montecatini Terme, 255 km: 1. Gustov 975 2. Velasco 3. Oroz; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 12 - 17 May : Seravezza - Sestri Levante, 155 km: 1. Basso 600 2. Bonnet 3. Rabottini; maglia rosa: Pauwels

    Mazzanti bests 2 OPQS riders in Assisi and Gustov makes Euskaltel cry in Montecatini Terme (important stage for this game); Basso wins in Sestri Levante!

    Pauwels does great in Assisi and Montecatini Terme, less so in Sestri Levante. Nevertheless, he's still in the lead:

    Code: [Select]
    1 Pauwels 7441
    2 Perget 7405
    3 Casar 7378
    4 Barta 7356
    5 Smukulis 7349
    6 Stetina 7348
    7 Tiralongo 7348
    8 Nieve 7337
    9 Roberts 7326
    10 Marczynski 7326
    11 Mazzanti 7325
    12 Meier 7322
    13 Mourey 7317
    14 Txurruka 7309
    15 Pietropolli 7307
    16 Capecchi 7305
    17 Oliveira 7304
    18 Cabedo 7295
    19 Velasco 7288
    20 Izagirre 7288
    21 Rujano 7286
    25 Bennati 7269
    26 Schleck 7267
    37 Scarponi 7254
    39 Basso 7253
    43 Pinotti 7250
    68 Pirazzi 7218
    78 Slagter 7205
    96 Szmyd 7184
    110 Jo. Rodriguez 7170
    111 Henao 7170
    116 Hushovd 7169
    119 Uran 7167
    123 Pozzovivo 7164
    127 Moreno 7155
    132 Goss 7149
    139 Cavendish 7144
    141 Cunego 7143
    144 Hesjedal 7142
    152 Visconti 7132
    155 Gadret 7127
    157 Farrar 7125
    159 De Gendt 7123
    162 Kreuziger 7117
    179 Intxausti 7079
    183 Pozzato 7066
    190 Cataldo 7042
    192 Phinney 7027
    197 Ballan 6997
    198 Thomas 6972
  • ReplyReply

  • Sylvester

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 126
    • Liked: 38
    Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
    « Reply #2 on: May 18, 2012, 14:59 »
    Stage: 13 - 18 May : Savona - Cervere, 121 km: 1. Bandiera 497 2. Dyachenko 3. Velasco; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 14 - 19 May : Cherasco - Cervinia, 206 km: 1. Leezer 772 (+4) 2. Stannard 3. Bak; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 15 - 20 May : Busto Arsizio - Lecco / Pian dei Resinelli, 169 km: 1. Samoilau 2. Vande Velde 3. Txurruka; maglia rosa: Pauwels

    Bandiera wins today's stage by a country mile; you heard it here first! Leezer beats Stannard in Cervinia after an extra dice roll and wins his second stage, Samoilau wins in Lecco after a very close race. Pauwels grabs a 7th place in Cervinia and extends his lead; Txurruka moves up to third place overall.

    Top 50 on GC:

    Spoiler (hover to show)
  • ReplyReply

  • Sylvester

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 126
    • Liked: 38
    Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
    « Reply #3 on: May 18, 2012, 15:28 »
    Stage: 16 - 22 May : Limone sul Garda - Falzes / Pfalzen, 173.00 km: 1. Vicioso 684 2. Niermann 3. Moreno; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 17 - 23 May : Falzes / Pfalzen - Cortina d'Ampezzo, 186.00 km: 1. Lund 713 2. Visconti 3. Favilli; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 18 - 24 May : San Vito di Cadore - Vedelago, 149.00 km: 1. Lagutin 583 2. LS Haedo 3. Bruseghin; maglia rosa: Pauwels

    Vicioso, Lund and Lagutin are our stage winners. None of them is a real threat on GC. It's a two horse race until the end as Pauwels and Perget battle for the Giro, unless they crack big time on the Stelvio. With only 447 dice rolls remaining it looks as if Pauwels has almost got it in the bag, while some 30 riders battle it out for third place:

    Code: [Select]
    1 Pauwels 11002
    2 Perget 10960
    3 Roberts 10878
    4 Izagirre 10863
    5 Txurruka 10859
    6 Casar 10856
    7 Oliveira 10851
    8 Scarponi 10848
    9 Lagutin 10848
    10 Barta 10847
    11 Nieve 10845
    12 Marczynski 10845
    13 Capecchi 10843
    14 Leezer 10838
    15 Denifl 10837
    16 Gustov 10827
    17 Vandevelde 10822
    18 Schleck 10821
    19 Niermann 10819
    20 Velasco 10817
    21 Rasch 10815
    22 Meier 10812
    23 Tiralongo 10812
    24 Soupe 10809
    25 Agnoli 10809
    26 Cabedo 10808
    27 Mourey 10805
    28 Stetina 10804
    29 Pietropolli 10800
    30 Bruseghin 10799
    31 Ventoso 10798
    32 Brambilla 10797
    33 Bodnar 10796
    34 Smukulis 10796
    35 Beppu 10796
    36 Bandiera 10795
    37 Vicioso 10794
    38 Rosseler 10793
    39 Rujano 10791
    40 LS Haedo 10791
    41 Hermans 10791
    42 Kwiatkowski 10791
    43 Guardini 10791
    44 Seubert 10790
    45 Pirazzi 10783
    46 Mazzanti 10772
    47 Minguez 10771
    48 Bonnet 10770
    49 Rohregger 10770
    50 Hunter 10769
    198 Vaitkus 10388

  • ReplyReply

  • Sylvester

    • Domestic Rider
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 126
    • Liked: 38
    Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
    « Reply #4 on: May 18, 2012, 21:56 »
    Stage: 19 - 25 May : Treviso - Alpe di Pampeago / Val di Fiemme, 198 km: 1. Roberts 756 2. Malori 3. Rasch; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 20 - 26 May : Caldes / Val di Sole - Passo dello Stelvio, 219 km: 1. Dupont 845 2. Zeits 3. Henao; maglia rosa: Pauwels
    Stage: 21 - 27 May : Milano ITT, 30 km: 1. Golas 134 2. Keukeleire 3. Bérard

    3rd placed Luke Roberts puts some pressure on Serge Pauwels by winning the Pampeago stage but the Australian fades on the Stelvio. Dupont wins the queen stage. Golas convincingly beats Keukeleire in the last ITT as Pauwels secures the Giro win  :win Roberts holds on to second place ahead of Perget; Scarponi moves up to sixth.

    Final GC:

    Code: [Select]
    1 Pauwels 12578
    2 Roberts 12499
    3 Perget 12494
    4 Lagutin 12474
    5 Barta 12462
    6 Scarponi 12443
    7 Vandevelde 12440
    8 Rasch 12436
    9 Bandiera 12421
    10 Niermann 12417
    11 Velasco 12412
    12 Cabedo 12411
    13 Agnoli 12408
    14 Izagirre 12407
    15 Marczynski 12406
    16 Caruso 12403
    17 Brambilla 12402
    18 Beppu 12398
    19 Ventoso 12397
    20 Rosseler 12397
    21 Txurruka 12396
    22 Oliveira 12392
    23 LS Haedo 12391
    24 Mazzanti 12391
    25 Leezer 12389
    26 Rabottini 12387
    27 Nieve 12386
    28 Soupe 12386
    29 Mourey 12378
    30 Meier 12375
    31 Gustov 12373
    32 Schillinger 12373
    33 Pietropolli 12371
    34 Denifl 12369
    35 Capecchi 12368
    36 Casar 12368
    37 Dupont 12365
    38 Renshaw 12364
    39 Seubert 12364
    40 Rohregger 12364
    41 Rubiano 12363
    42 Kwiatkowski 12362
    43 Schleck 12361
    44 Bruseghin 12361
    45 Ja. Rodriguez 12360
    46 Tiralongo 12360
    47 Lastras 12354
    48 Vermote 12351
    49 Navardauskas 12349
    50 Smukulis 12347
    51 Vicioso 12346
    52 Maes 12341
    53 Guardini 12341
    54 Stetina 12340
    55 Hermans 12339
    56 Bonnet 12338
    57 Kennaugh 12336
    58 Bono 12333
    59 Rujano 12328
    60 Slagter 12325
    61 Santambrogio 12324
    62 Keukeleire 12324
    63 Bennati 12323
    64 Locatelli 12321
    65 Wyss 12320
    66 Longo Borghini 12319
    67 Zaugg 12317
    68 Pardilla 12315
    69 Pirazzi 12314
    70 Sergent 12312
    71 Feillu 12305
    72 Delage 12305
    73 Sella 12304
    74 Goss 12303
    75 De Clercq 12303
    76 Visconti 12299
    77 Ferrari 12296
    78 Bakelants 12296
    79 Kaisen 12292
    80 Bérard 12291
    81 Hunter 12290
    82 Moreno 12289
    83 De Gendt 12286
    84 Selvaggi 12284
    85 Kuschynski 12283
    86 Minguez 12282
    87 Dyachenko 12281
    88 Bobridge 12281
    89 Zeits 12280
    90 Bodnar 12279
    91 Carrara 12275
    92 Samoilau 12273
    93 Montaguti 12273
    94 Christensen 12271
    95 Veikkanen 12270
    96 Meersman 12269
    97 Cunego 12268
    98 Jo. Rodriguez 12266
    99 Ochoa 12265
    100 Brown 12264
    101 Boaro 12264
    102 Niemiec 12261
    103 Bulgac 12261
    104 Frank 12261
    105 Balloni 12259
    106 Losada 12257
    107 Flecha 12252
    108 Bauer 12252
    109 Stannard 12251
    110 Failli 12251
    111 Hushovd 12251
    112 De Marchi 12250
    113 Malori 12249
    114 Battaglin 12248
    115 Vanendert 12248
    116 Brutt 12247
    117 Serpa 12246
    118 Kristoff 12245
    119 Bos 12242
    120 Pozzovivo 12241
    121 Bak 12237
    122 Ponzi 12236
    123 Benedetti 12236
    124 Van Winden 12235
    125 Gasparotto 12233
    126 Szmyd 12232
    127 Basso 12232
    128 Pinotti 12228
    129 Aaen Jorgensen 12224
    130 Bonnafond 12224
    131 Herrada 12223
    132 Gatto 12222
    133 Saez 12221
    134 Spezialetti 12221
    135 De Greef 12221
    136 Cazaux 12220
    137 Farrar 12215
    138 De Negri 12212
    139 Garate 12211
    140 Henao 12210
    141 Impey 12207
    142 Lund 12207
    143 Rasmussen 12207
    144 Hesjedal 12207
    145 Petrov 12207
    146 Keizer 12202
    147 Tuft 12200
    148 Salerno 12198
    149 Sabatini 12197
    150 Huzarski 12197
    151 Modolo 12196
    152 Tosatto 12190
    153 Santaromita 12190
    154 Uran 12189
    155 Kreuziger 12186
    156 Belletti 12184
    157 Cataldo 12183
    158 Demare 12182
    159 Schorn 12179
    160 Favilli 12176
    161 Bille 12170
    162 Tschopp 12170
    163 Seeldraeyers 12168
    164 Cavendish 12168
    165 Lancaster 12165
    166 Pozzato 12165
    167 Gastauer 12160
    168 Felline 12159
    169 Ulissi 12152
    170 Intxausti 12152
    171 Dietziker 12150
    172 Pagani 12149
    173 Golas 12148
    174 Colbrelli 12148
    175 Gadret 12147
    176 Chicchi 12146
    177 Ignatiev 12142
    178 Eisel 12141
    179 JJ Haedo 12139
    180 Coledan 12138
    181 Brändle 12138
    182 Oroz 12137
    183 Phinney 12130
    184 Kangert 12125
    185 Amador 12125
    186 Velits 12123
    187 Larsson 12111
    188 Hunt 12111
    189 Hansen 12105
    190 Hollenstein 12100
    191 Gazvoda 12093
    192 Clement 12067
    193 Righi 12059
    194 Rollin 12056
    195 Nizzolo 11998
    196 Vaitkus 11992
    197 Ballan 11954
    198 Thomas 11914

    Points classification:

    Code: [Select]
    1 Bonnet
    2 Leezer
    3 Rasch
    4 Barta
    5 Niermann
    6 Gustov
    7 Velasco
    8 Mazzanti
    9 Lagutin
    10 Lund
    11 Roberts
    12 Brambilla
    13 Vicioso
    14 LS Haedo
    15 Bulgac
    16 Vanendert
    17 Bono
    18 Samoilau
    19 Bak
    20 Marczynski
    21 Capecchi
    22 De Gendt
    23 Dupont
    24 Basso
    25 Bandiera
    26 Zeits
    27 Vandevelde
    28 Dyachenko
    29 Eisel
    30 Boaro
    31 Pauwels
    32 Bodnar
    33 Brown
    34 Malori
    35 Henao
    36 Golas
    37 Oliveira
    38 Pietropolli
    39 Stannard
    40 Petrov
    41 Kwiatkowski
    42 Delage
    43 Benedetti
    44 Aaen Jorgensen
    45 Beppu
    46 Meier
    47 De Negri
    48 Keukeleire
    49 Visconti
    50 Montaguti

    Denifl in 34th place is the first rider without a single top 15 placing.

    I'm considering some options to add some realism in order to make everything more interesting and I'll be sure to keep this conversation with myself going!
  • ReplyReply

  • sublimit

    • Road Captain
    • Country: eh
    • Posts: 1016
    • Liked: 159
    Re: Dice simulation: Giro randomness
    « Reply #5 on: May 30, 2012, 11:16 »
    Nice to see Pauwels win something after the debacle of his Sky "racing" career.   :win

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