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LukasCPH

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2016 wildcards
« on: November 14, 2015, 22:56 »
The pro teams for 2016 and their compositions are (more or less) known. Time to speculate about which teams will get which WT wildcards ...

This is a work-in-progress: I'll add my assessments of the PCTs' chances for the various WT races over time, and also write a bit about the reasonings behind.


In parentheses behind the race name is the number of wildcards I expect them to hand out based on the previous three years. The percentages add up to that number.

Giro d'Italia (4)
#southeast 99%
#androni 98%
#bardiani 98%
#fantini 24%
#bora 23%
#ccc 22%
#roompot 15%
#roth 14%
#cajarural 7%

Tour de France (4)
#cofidis 99%
#europcar 99%
#bretagne 98%
#bora 90%
#marseille 10%
#unknown 4%

Vuelta a España (4)
#cajarural 99%
#cofidis 99%
#activejet 60%
#bora 40%
#marseille 10%
#funvic 10%
#unknown 82%

Milano-San Remo (7)


Ronde van Vlaanderen (7)


Paris-Roubaix (7)


Liège-Bastogne-Liège (7)


Giro di Lombardia (7)


Tour Down Under (2-3)
#teamau 100%
#drapac 99%
#onepro 45%
#unknown 6%

Paris-Nice (3-4)


Tirreno-Adriatico (4-5)


Volta a Catalunya (3-7)
#cajarural 99%
#cofidis 99%
#ccc 70%
#europcar 70%
#bretagne 30%
#wanty 30%
#onepro 30%
#marseille 25%
#activejet 25%
#funvic 20%
#unknown 2%

Vuelta al País Vasco (1-2)
#cajarural 99%
#activejet 20%
#funvic 20%
#unknown 11%

Tour de Romandie (1-2)
#roth 99%
#europcar 99%
#unknown 2%

Critérium du Dauphiné (3)


Tour de Suisse (2-4)
#roth 99%
#ccc 95%
#wanty 90%
#unknown 66%

Tour de Pologne (2-4)
#teampl 100%
#ccc 99%
#activejet 99%
#onepro 50%
#unknown 2%

ENECO Tour (2-3)
#roompot 99%
#topsport 99%
#wanty 99%
#unknown 3%

E3 Harelbeke (7)


Gent-Wevelgem (7)


Amstel Gold Race (7)


Flèche Wallonne (7)


Clásica San Sebastián (1-2)
#cajarural 99%
#activejet 26%
#unknown 25%

Cyclassics Hamburg (2-3)
#bora 99%
#cult 99%
#unknown 52%

Bretagne Classic - Ouest France (6)


GP Québec & GP Montréal (2-4)
#teamca 100%
#bora 90%
#europcar 80%
#drapac 70%
#unknown 10%
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  • « Last Edit: November 15, 2015, 14:12 by LukasCPH »
    Cyclingnews Women's WorldTour Correspondent
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    Views presented are my own. RIP Keith & Sean

    Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #1 on: November 15, 2015, 00:05 »
    Wild cards are given out far to early these days. I think it was better when a good ride ride at the dauphine could still get you an invite to the tour. keep the teams hungry trying to make a good impression for as long as possible i say.
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  • Ruudz0r

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #2 on: November 15, 2015, 10:05 »
    Wild cards are given out far to early these days. I think it was better when a good ride ride at the dauphine could still get you an invite to the tour. keep the teams hungry trying to make a good impression for as long as possible i say.

    Problem with that was that PCT leaders peaked for a race like Dauphine to get the Wildcard and they would often not be in optimal shape for the TdF. I do agree that they are handed out too early, but they shouldnt be handed out too late either.


    @Lukas I am interested to hear why you think it is more then 8 times more likely that Roompot gets a Giro wildcard over Caja?
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #3 on: November 15, 2015, 10:41 »
    This is my take on the GTs.

    Giro

     #southeast 99.99%
     #bardiani 90%
     #fantini 80%
     #bora 60%
     #androni 20%

    All others at 0%


    Tour

    I think you're spot on.


    Vuelta

    Too early to say.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #4 on: November 15, 2015, 11:01 »
    Problem with that was that PCT leaders peaked for a race like Dauphine to get the Wildcard and they would often not be in optimal shape for the TdF. I do agree that they are handed out too early, but they shouldnt be handed out too late either.
    Exactly.
    Personally, I think that planning security is important for PCTs, so I'm in favour of handing out the wildcards early.

    I see the point that January may be too early - but if the GTs waited until later, there should be an agreement with a concurrent race that they will invite the teams that were overlook. If the Giro waited until after MSR, the PCTs' GC leaders will have scheduled their training to be at peak form in May - and if they're not picked, what to do then?
    If the teams overlooked for the Giro were certain to be invited to e.g. the Tour of Norway, Bayern-Rundfahrt or Tour of California, that would help. The teams not at the Tour could then go to the Tour of Austria, Tour of Qinghai Lake ... or Sibiu Tour.

    @Lukas I am interested to hear why you think it is more then 8 times more likely that Roompot gets a Giro wildcard over Caja?
    Like I said, work in progress. I'll get there eventually. ;)

    Basically, it's the Dutch start. Caja Rural don't really have the squad for 2 GTs, and they're certain of the Vuelta. Roompot won't get to either of the other GTs, the race starts in Apeldoorn (and they've signed Weening).
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  • « Last Edit: November 15, 2015, 13:16 by LukasCPH »

    Joelsim

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #5 on: November 15, 2015, 11:51 »
    3 Italian teams will get a wildcard to the Giro.

    Caja will get a wildcard to the Vuelta, CCC got the Giro last year, the French teams will get Tour invitations so that to me leaves it as Bora vs Androni vs UHC for the fourth spot. Realistically there is only one winner as RCS have pretty much said it won't be 4 Italian teams and Germany is a very interesting market.

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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #6 on: November 15, 2015, 13:21 »
    3 Italian teams will get a wildcard to the Giro.

    Caja will get a wildcard to the Vuelta, CCC got the Giro last year, the French teams will get Tour invitations so that to me leaves it as Bora vs Androni vs UHC for the fourth spot. Realistically there is only one winner as RCS have pretty much said it won't be 4 Italian teams and Germany is a very interesting market.
    Why do you not rate #androni?
    Savio is Savio; and he has Pellizotti, Ratto, Selvaggi etc. Not a weaker squad than #fantini, where Cunego is 'only' a 'part-time' cyclist next to his studies.
    #uhc have lost Ratto, Zurlo ... basically all their Italians but Canola. I don't see them as even in the picture for the Giro. Tirreno, MSR, sure - but not the GT.

    If any of the Italians is to left out, it'll be #fantini. It's not what I would do; but this is about what the race organisers will do.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #7 on: November 15, 2015, 13:38 »
    Androni just seem a bit anonymous these days. NVF have a better position in the Coppa Italia, a former Giro winner, a young sprinter or two who could get some decent results. Pellizotti is a doper so if they are true to their word, like with Rebellin last year, then he isn't an option and Selvaggi/Ratto are 3rd rate at best.

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  • pastronef

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #8 on: November 15, 2015, 22:14 »
    is Bora-Argon interested in the Giro, or better to focus on the Tour wild card and other races?
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  • pastronef

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #9 on: November 16, 2015, 08:41 »
    and is Savio REALLY risking not getting a wild card for the Giro?  :o

    (I tell you, I wouldn´t mind if he´s left out, but the old fox is hard to outsmart)
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  • just some guy

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #10 on: November 16, 2015, 09:01 »
    Giro
     #bardiani
     #androni
     #southeast
     #ccc

    Tour
     #bora
     #europcar
     #bretagne
     #cofidis

    Vuelta
     #cajarural
     #cofidis
     #funvic
    ??

    Paris Nice
     #cofidis
     #bora
     #marseille
     #europcar

    Tirreno-Adriatico
     #ccc
     #bardiani
     #fantini
     #southeast
     #androni

    Milano-San Remo
     #ccc
     #cajarural
     #fantini
     #southeast
     #androni
     #onepro
     #bardiani

    Tour Down Under
     #drapac
     #teamau

    will leave it there

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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #11 on: November 16, 2015, 10:21 »
    and is Savio REALLY risking not getting a wild card for the Giro?  :o

    (I tell you, I wouldn´t mind if he´s left out, but the old fox is hard to outsmart)
    No. Savio will get a wildcard, of that I am positive.

    I just can't comprehend it not happening. Of course, stuff has happened in cycling in the past few years that I couldn't comprehend happening either ... but Savio's team not at the Giro? It's, like, a law of nature. ;)
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: 2016 wildcards
    « Reply #12 on: November 16, 2015, 12:30 »
    You seem to be forgetting that Nippo Vini Fantini will have Italo-Japanese 'Viviani of the Rising Sun'.

    Job done.

    #seeyasavio

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