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LukasCPH

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Rio 2016 Qualification
« on: December 31, 2015, 12:42 »
The final UCI rankings for the 2015 season have been released.
Naturally, the first thing on my agenda was to update my spreadsheets and calculate the number of places nations qualify for the Rio Olympics.

For starters, here are the qualification rules.

Now it'll get very mathematical, with lots of tables and numbers. Bear with me.
An overview of all qualified nations and their mode of qualification will posted in a separate post.


NB! This is my interpretation of the rules & rankings, and is in no way to be seen as official until confirmed by the UCI. There are some contentious issues in rule interpretation - see below.



World Tour (up to 65 spots): 62 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT Ind.WT
1 SPAIN 1945,00 5 5 20
2 ITALY 1106,00 5 5 33
3 COLOMBIA 1099,00 5 5 9
4 GREAT BRITAIN 1041,00 5 5 7
5 BELGIUM 905,00 5 5 25
6 FRANCE 881,00 4 4 21
7 NETHERLANDS 848,00 4 4 18
8 AUSTRALIA 777,00 4 4 12
9 GERMANY 587,00 4 4 8
10 NORWAY 453,00 1* 1 1
11 POLAND 376,00 3* 3 3
12 PORTUGAL 355,00 4 4 4
13 CZECH REPUBLIC 306,00 3* 3 3
14 SLOVENIA 294,00 3* 3 3
15 SWITZERLAND 270,00 4 4 7
16 SLOVAKIA 257,00 1 1 1
22 COSTA RICA 93,00 1 1 1
23 LUXEMBOURG 74,00 1 3 1

Notes:
* Nations not filling their quota due to too few classified riders can "top up" via their Continental Tour rankings.



Africa Tour (up to 9 spots): 9 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT
1 MOROCCO  1270,00 3 3
2 ALGERIA  1161,80 2 2
3 SOUTH AFRICA  876,88 1^! 1 1^!
4 ERITREA  802,88 1^ 1^
5 RWANDA  597,99
6 TUNISIA  386,00

Notes:
^ Quota reduced due to nations qualifying via top-10 in individual ranking.
° Qualify via top-10 in individual ranking, reducing quota for other nations.
! But see "Final allocation of quota places"



America Tour (up to 13 spots): 13 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT
2 CANADA  850,00 3 1 3
3 ARGENTINA  804,00 3 1 3
4 VENEZUELA  688,00 2^ 2^
5 UNITED STATES  687,00 1^! 5 1^!
6 BRAZIL  571,50 1^§ 1^§
8 ECUADOR  396,00
9 CHILE  327,00
11 GUATEMALA  252,00

Notes:
^ Quota reduced due to nations qualifying via top-20 in individual ranking.
° Qualify via top-20 in individual ranking, reducing quota for other nations.
! But see "Final allocation of quota places"
§ But see "Host nation/Tripartite Commission Invitation places"



Asia Tour (up to 9 spots): 9 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT
1 IRAN  1655,00 3 3
2 KAZAKHSTAN  602,00 2 1 2
3 JAPAN  541,00 2 2
4 KOREA  295,00 2 2



Europe Tour (up to 38 spots): 38 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT
5 UKRAINE  1945,50 3 1 3
7 SLOVENIA  1882,80 1* 3 3 1
8 RUSSIA  1788,17 3 8 3
9 DENMARK  1457,68 3 4 3
10 NORWAY  1451,00 3* 1 1 3
11 POLAND  1398,50 1* 3 3 1
12 AUSTRIA  974,90 2 2 2
13 BELARUS  963,00 2 2 2
14 TURKEY  896,00 2 2
17 CZECH REPUBLIC  745,25 1* 3 3 1
19 LITHUANIA  667,00 2 1 2
20 ESTONIA  587,00 2 2 2
21 IRELAND  508,00 2 2 2
22 LATVIA  503,40 2 1 2
23 CROATIA  419,80 2 1 2
24 SWEDEN  405,00 2 2
26 ROMANIA  369,50
27 GREECE  362,00
28 SERBIA  346,00
29 BULGARIA  309,50
31 AZERBAIJAN  262,00

Notes:
* "top up" spots for nations not filling their quota via WorldTour
° Qualify via top-200 in individual ranking; since there are enough surplus spots, no nation gets its quota reduced.



Oceania Tour (up to 2 spots): 2 spots
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT
1 NEW ZEALAND  1215,40 2 2 2



Final allocation of unused quota places: 2 spots
As you may have noted, only 62 of the 65 spots to qualify via the WorldTour have been allocated, creating 3 "extra spots". The qualification rules specify:
Quote
Any remaining quota places, after all of the above allocation scenarios have been applied, will be allocated to NOCs which have not filled their maximum quota (provision 1) through the UCI WorldTour, and whose quota has been reduced due to the allocation of quota places based on the individual rankings from each continental tour, in the order of the UCI WorldTour ranking.
The interpretation of this is somewhat complicated. I take it to mean the following:
1) "Remaining quota places" will first be allocated to nations "which have not filled their maximum quota (provision 1) through the UCI WorldTour", " in the order of the UCI WorldTour ranking".
In this case, no such nations exist.
2) "Remaining quota places" will then be allocated to nations "whose quota has been reduced due to the allocation of quota places based on the individual rankings from each continental tour, in the order of the UCI WorldTour ranking".
The only nations ranked on the WorldTour with a reduced quota are (in order of their WorldTour ranking) the United States of America and South Africa. They would therefore receive one "extra spot" each. The third "extra spot" goes unused:
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT CC Final
5 UNITED STATES  687,00 1 5 1^ 1!
3 SOUTH AFRICA  876,88 1 1 1^ 1!

Notes:
^ Quota reduced due to nations qualifying via top-10 (Africa Tour) resp. top-20 (America Tour) in individual ranking.
! "Extra spot" allocated to nations with reduced quota in order of WorldTour ranking



Continental Championships (up to 6 spots): 6 spots
Only nations yet unqualified can be considered for this qualification pathway, where 1 spot is given to the two nations ranked highest in the Continental Championships of Africa, America and Asia.
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT CC
8 NAMIBIA  168,01 1 1
14 ETHIOPIA  100,01 1 1
10 MEXICO  256,00 1 1
17 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC  142,00 1 1
5 HONG KONG  276,50 1 1
16 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES  97,00 1 1



Host nation/Tripartite Commission Invitation places: 1 spot
Almost as an afterthought, there is a provision in the rules regarding the host nation (Brazil):
Quote
In the event that it does not qualify any quota places, the Host Country is guaranteed:
- Two (2) quota places for the Men’s Road Race only
Brazil does qualify via the America Tour, but has its quota reduced due to three nations qualifying via the individual ranking.
The above rule only allows for 2 spots for the host nation if it doesn't qualify otherwise - but I think we can assume that as there is one spot still left unused, this one would be given to Brazil (whether because of the status as host nation, or as a Tripartite Commission Invitation place, is of little importance).
Rank Name WT Points CT Points Spots WT Classified in WT CT Ind.WT Ind.CT CC Final Host
6 BRAZIL  571,50 1 1^

Notes:
^ Quota reduced due to nations qualifying via top-20 in individual ranking.
§ Spot allocated either to host nation or as Tripartite Commission Invitation place.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: January 02, 2016, 13:25 by LukasCPH »
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    Views presented are my own. RIP Keith & Sean

    LukasCPH

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    Re: Rio 2016 Olympics Road Race Qualification
    « Reply #1 on: December 31, 2015, 12:42 »
    Overview over all nations qualified for the
    Rio 2016 Olympics Men's Road Race
    Name Spots Qualification 1 Qualification 2
    *es SPAIN 5 5 via WT
    *it ITALY 5 5 via WT
    *co COLOMBIA 5 5 via WT
    *uk GREAT BRITAIN 5 5 via WT
    *be BELGIUM 5 5 via WT
    *fr FRANCE 4 4 via WT
    *nl NETHERLANDS 4 4 via WT
    *au AUSTRALIA 4 4 via WT
    *de GERMANY 4 4 via WT
    *no NORWAY 4 1 via WT 3 via EuT
    *pl POLAND 4 3 via WT 1 via EuT
    *pt PORTUGAL 4 4 via WT
    *cz CZECH REPUBLIC 4 3 via WT 1 via EuT
    *si SLOVENIA 4 3 via WT 1 via EuT
    *ch SWITZERLAND 4 4 via WT
    *ma MOROCCO 3 3 via AfT
    *ca CANADA 3 3 via AmT
    *ar ARGENTINA 3 3 via AmT
    *ir IRAN 3 3 via AsT
    *ua UKRAINE 3 3 via EuT
    *ru RUSSIA 3 3 via EuT
    *dk DENMARK 3 3 via EuT
    *dz ALGERIA 2 2 via AfT
    *za SOUTH AFRICA 2 1 via AfT 1 "extra spot"
    *ve VENEZUELA 2 2 via AmT
    *usa UNITED STATES 2 1 via AmT 1 "extra spot"
    *br BRAZIL 2 1 via AmT 1 as host nation/TCI place
    *kz KAZAKHSTAN 2 2 via AsT
    *jp JAPAN 2 2 via AsT
    *kr KOREA 2 2 via AsT
    *at AUSTRIA 2 2 via EuT
    *by BELARUS 2 2 via EuT
    *tr TURKEY 2 2 via EuT
    *lt LITHUANIA 2 2 via EuT
    *ee ESTONIA 2 2 via EuT
    *ie IRELAND 2 2 via EuT
    *lv LATVIA 2 2 via EuT
    *hr CROATIA 2 2 via EuT
    *se SWEDEN 2 2 via EuT
    *nz NEW ZEALAND 2 2 via OcT
    *sk SLOVAKIA 1 1 via WT Ind.
    *cr COSTA RICA 1 1 via WT Ind.
    *lu LUXEMBOURG 1 1 via WT Ind.
    *er ERITREA 1 1 via AfT
    *rw RWANDA 1 1 via AfT Ind.
    *tn TUNISIA 1 1 via AfT Ind.
    *na NAMIBIA 1 1 via CC
    *et ETHIOPIA 1 1 via CC
    *ec ECUADOR 1 1 via AmT Ind.
    *cl CHILE 1 1 via AmT Ind.
    *mx MEXICO 1 1 via CC
    *gt GUATEMALA 1 1 via AmT Ind.
    *do DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1 1 via CC
    *hk HONG KONG 1 1 via CC
    *ae UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 1 1 via CC
    *ro ROMANIA 1 1 via EuT Ind.
    *gr GREECE 1 1 via EuT Ind.
    *rs SERBIA 1 1 via EuT Ind.
    *bg BULGARIA 1 1 via EuT Ind.
    *az AZERBAIJAN 1 1 via EuT Ind.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: January 18, 2016, 17:04 by LukasCPH »

    LukasCPH

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    Re: Rio 2016 Olympics Road Race Qualification
    « Reply #2 on: December 31, 2015, 14:18 »
    Well, that was that. :s

    Go ahead and discuss - and/or praise my Herculean effort. ;)
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Rio 2016 Olympics Road Race Qualification
    « Reply #3 on: December 31, 2015, 14:38 »
    These are the places qualified. It's not certain that all nations will actually take their places (although quite probable), and there's a confirmation process for the Olympics spots:
    Quote
    By 15 January 2016 (for men) and by 6 June 2016 (for women), the UCI will inform the respective NOCs/national federations of their allocated quota places. The NOCs will then have until 1 February 2016 (for men) and 15 June 2016 (for women) to confirm to the UCI if they wish to use these quota places, as detailed in paragraph H. Qualification Timeline.

    Any places not confirmed will be re-allocated:
    Quote
    If a quota place allocated is not confirmed by the NOC by the confirmation of quota place deadline or is declined by the NOC, the quota place will be reallocated by the Tripartite Commission as a Tripartite Commission Invitation Place.

    If the Tripartite Commission is not able to allocate the unused qualification place(s), they will be reallocated as follows:

    Men

    1) If the NOC qualified through the individual rankings of the continental tours or the UCI WorldTour individual ranking, the quota place will be reallocated in priority to NOCs qualified through the Ranking by Nation which had their quota reduced due to the allocation of quota places based on the individual rankings from each continental tour, in the order of the UCI WorldTour ranking.

    2) All other unused quota places will be reallocated to NOCs qualified among the top 10 riders in the elite Individual Time Trial event of the 2015 World Championships that have not yet obtained a quota place for the Road Race.

    3) Should unused quota places still remain following this process, they will be reallocated in the order of the Ranking by Nation of the various continental tours of 31 December 2015, with a maximum of one (1) quota place per NOC not yet qualified. These places will be allocated in priority to the continents that have not filled their allocated number of quota places through the continental tours.

    2) won't come into effectas all nations from the top-10 of the ITT Worlds have qualified for the RR.

    So, if any nations qualified through the individual rankings forfeit their spots, Eritrea and Venezuela could get their quota "restored" to the original number.
    If any other nations forfeit their spots (or if more than two nations qualified through the individual rankings), those spots would be distributed to nations not yet qualified. Presumedly this would happen by the number of Continental Tour points scored by those nations:
    Name CT Points
    *ph PHILIPPINES 266,00
    *my MALAYSIA 243,00
    *cm CAMEROON 221,00
    *kg KYRGYZSTAN 197,00
    *hu HUNGARY 181,00
    *uz UZBEKISTAN 174,00
    *sy SYRIA 165,00
    *fi FINLAND 159,00
    *al ALBANIA 159,00
    *md MOLDOVA 159,00
    *mn MONGOLIA 155,00
    *pr PUERTO RICO 149,00
    *cu CUBA 149,00
    *th THAILAND 147,00
    *cf CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 143,00
    *bm BERMUDA 143,00
    *bz BELIZE 143,00
    *sv EL SALVADOR 143,00
    *bo BOLIVIA 142,00
    *kw KUWAIT 142,00
    *cy CYPRUS 142,00
    *il ISRAEL 142,00
    *zw ZIMBABWE 140,00
    *lb LEBANON 140,00
    *mk FYR MACEDONIA 140,00
    *ag ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA 137,00
    *aw ARUBA 131,00
    *pa PANAMA 128,00
    *ba BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 128,00
    *bf BURKINA FASO 125,01
    *ge GEORGIA 125,00
    *cn CHINA 119,00
    *uy URUGUAY 112,00
    *ci IVORY COAST 104,00
    *mu MAURITIUS 101,00
    *mn MONTENEGRO 98,00
    *id INDONESIA 72,00
    *tw CHINESE TAIPEI 41,00
    *bd BARBADOS 30,00
    *vn VIETNAM 10,00
    *sg SINGAPORE 7,00
    *eg EGYPT 5,32
    *tt TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 3,00
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  • Not My Circus

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    Re: Rio 2016 Olympics Road Race Qualification
    « Reply #4 on: December 31, 2015, 15:25 »
    Well, that was that. :s

    Go ahead and discuss - and/or praise my Herculean effort. ;)

    I take my hat off to you Lukas ... superb spreadsheeting (YES that IS a verb)




    As for discussion.... *goes off to think about...*

    Spoiler (hover to show)
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Rio 2016 Qualification
    « Reply #5 on: January 18, 2016, 12:11 »
    Did we get the confirmed list yet ?
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

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    LukasCPH

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    Re: Rio 2016 Qualification
    « Reply #6 on: January 18, 2016, 15:14 »
    Did we get the confirmed list yet ?
    Nope. Nobody did, actually. The individual NOCs/national federations only received confirmation of their own quota, so nobody has seen a full list until now. I guess it will only be announced publicly when all NOCs have confirmed/forfeited their spots, and all 142 places are confirmed.

    In this day and age, that's just not good enough.


    I did get confirmation that Romania has one spot for the road race, as does Azerbaijan. But that's all I know.
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  • LukasCPH

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    LukasCPH

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    Re: Rio 2016 Qualification
    « Reply #8 on: January 18, 2016, 17:19 »
    The UCI's list is almost exactly the same as the one I've calculated - with one exception:
    I had overlooked that the 2 "host country spots" are added to the 142 qualifiers for a peloton size of 144.

    This means that Brazil, having qualified only one place, instead takes its two host country spots, freeing their 1 qualified spot for the next highest-ranked American country in line that hasn't qualified yet. That is *pr Puerto Rico.
    There is also 1 Tripartite Commission Invitation place still available.
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  • Flo

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    Re: Rio 2016 Qualification
    « Reply #9 on: January 18, 2016, 19:58 »
    Only Spain and Italy with 5 and 2 spots - all is right again in the world of cycling :D
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