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L'arri

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L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
« on: January 01, 2016, 00:00 »
It's baseless accusations time again, folks, with yet another season of L'arri's Index of Suspicion, (still) otherwise known as The Thread That Called Santambrogio Quicker Than Anyone Else Anywhere Else On The Internet Ever.

So, when you next see something more consistently unusual than Colombian blood values, who you gonna call ... ? :cool

To whet your appetite for cycling cynicism, here's a legacy link to last year's thread of shame.

And when you're ready for the Now, let's go ahead and fling some dirt on the white sheets of 2016.

Submissions as follows ...

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Created > ReviewedTeamWhoWhyInvestigating OfficerScore
22/04/2016#movistarVALVERDE AlejandroNo edition of the Index would be complete without the presumed guilty, the professional's professional, the permanently prepared, perennial favourite Piti. I need not even cite a particular example. He is the gold standard of consistent incredulity.L'arri9
20/04/2016#gazpromFIRSANOV SergeiThis is a 33-year old who has won a couple of sh*t small races like the Tour of Nowhere and the Classico Anonimo and done nothing else. Literally nothing else. Until this year, his career looked to be headed for the Costa del Blowfly. Currently riding for what must be the dodgiest ProConti team in Europe, he has now racked up wins in Coppi e Bartali and Appenino and he's shadowing Landa in Trentino. Either someone misplaced the UCI memo or Sergei is laughing his chammy off.L'arri9

Teams

--- none yet ---

DQ'd (for now)  :XD

The following rider(s) - none of whom have ever tested positive and have at all times remained tranquillo because cycling is different now and what happened 15 years ago is not their problem - were formerly part of the Index but have since been made exempt from what can only be described as an ignorant witchhunt concocted by the jealous French and pursued to the level of defamation by bone idle w*nkers:

--- none yet ---
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  • « Last Edit: April 22, 2016, 17:41 by L'arri »
    Cycling is a Europe thing only and I only watch from Omloop on cause I am cool and sh*t
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    AG

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #1 on: April 13, 2016, 01:14 »
    Ok, folks, I almost hate to write this post, but the question must be asked. Hayman (fixed that. Apologies to Hayman.). Paris-Roubaix. Beautiful race, magic ending. Everybody agrees, massive kudos and general fireworks and celebrations.

    But, can these wattage numbers be human?
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/04/training-center/haymans-roubaix-power-so-massive-he-broke-speed-sensor_402375

    Has festinaboy - Vayer - said anything about Hayman? I see some tweets about Greipel - most of which, for me, need translation out of tech-speak anyway - but none about Hayman.

    But those numbers VN quotes are ephing massive. And I have no idea if they are considered "human" or not. From what I know, and it may be little, those numbers are more than massive, the are gargantuan. But that edge that the top guys have over everyday beings (like myself, even when I was fit and racing) can be like that - they can just naturally do things I never will.

    Anyway, like I said, the question has to be asked. For my own peace of mind, if nothing else. My suspicion in this case is zero, but that does not mean my skepticism has died and atrophied.

    meh

    1 - breaking the meter - really?   this is Paris-Roubaix.  Everything breaks!!!!   Its cobbles.  These things are not meant to sustain rough treatment like that.

    2 - power numbers - I am far from an expert in these things.  In fact I barely follow it.  But from what I understand they are talking about short bursts of major power .... not sustained efforts up Mont Venteux.   He won by a wheel - so surely whatever his power was, the other 5 have to be roughly the same ....




    Psst - btw, its Hayman, not Hayward  ;) )
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  • « Last Edit: April 20, 2016, 19:05 by L'arri »

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #2 on: April 13, 2016, 07:27 »
    Trying to spot doping through power files is pseudoscience anyways, so I am not sure it matters. Like Ferrari has said, we are very far from the human limit. The notion that a limit can be established under these circumstances, much less using an integer picked seemingly at random makes little sense. As far as this goes I like to think about it this way, if we was to establish a limit it would have to be the highest possible to reach having optimal genes, optimal equipment and optimal fitness. The genes part makes it really hard because you basically have to allow pushing the limit so far as to the limit of where mutations stop making said cyclist human, and instead some super human cycling machine, again a hard line to draw. But if you optimized all of these things it would shock me if the difference in skill was not in fact higher between the best cyclists today and this optimal cyclist than between the best cyclist today and an average person. Using power files to detect doping is to me no more reliable than simply watching and screaming out doper when you see something you deem strange.

    When Hayman bridged to Boonen I thought that was a very strong move, but in no way shape or form something unheard of, and impressive to win the sprint after that, but still I see nothing too strange there.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #3 on: April 13, 2016, 08:49 »
    But those numbers VN quotes are ephing massive. And I have no idea if they are considered "human" or not. From what I know, and it may be little, those numbers are more than massive, the are gargantuan. But that edge that the top guys have over everyday beings (like myself, even when I was fit and racing) can be like that - they can just naturally do things I never will.
    351W normalised power is high, but not outrageously so.
    After all, this is Paris-Roubaix, with 50+ km of cobbles where you will naturally put more power into the pedals than you would on an asphalt road.
    And 10- to 20-second efforts at 800-900W, with a peak of 1200+W? That's what top pro cyclists do. Sprinters exceed these numbers in every sprint.

    I'd be much more interested in watt numbers from specific (long) pavé sections, both absolute watts and W/kg.



    Now that all that has been said, this isn't the thread for serious discussion anyway. ;)
    Breaks arm, then wins biggest classic of the year 6 weeks later? That's got to be at least a 7.
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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #4 on: April 13, 2016, 09:33 »
    Now that all that has been said, this isn't the thread for serious discussion anyway. ;)
    Breaks arm, then wins biggest classic of the year 6 weeks later? That's got to be at least a 7.

    Look at you, getting the thread back on topic  :lol
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  • He shook his head sadly and told me that endemic drug use had compelled him to give up a promising career. "Even one small local race, prize was a salami, and I see doping!" - Tim Moore: Gironimo (Riding the Very Terrible 1914 Tour of Italy)

    hiero

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #5 on: April 15, 2016, 01:47 »
    . . .

    Now that all that has been said, this isn't the thread for serious discussion anyway. ;)
    Breaks arm, then wins biggest classic of the year 6 weeks later? That's got to be at least a 7.

    Ah, well, pffffffft. So what thread should I discuss this in? ;)

    Ok - so I have like no RL knowledge of power ratings. Nothing like it existed in 1989. So what I know of watts is a result of reading silly forum threads where almost all of the posters are poseurs, but one has no idea who is the poseur, and who has real knowledge. Now, here in VR, i think most of the posters do very little posing, and there is a fairly high level of actual knowledge. For the most part.

    So I appreciate the elucidation in this matter. Edifying. My thanks.
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  • Faut y croire!

    ciranda

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #6 on: April 16, 2016, 19:53 »
    Ok, folks, I almost hate to write this post, but the question must be asked. Hayward. Paris-Roubaix. Beautiful race, magic ending. Everybody agrees, massive kudos and general fireworks and celebrations.

    But, can these wattage numbers be human?
    http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/04/training-center/haymans-roubaix-power-so-massive-he-broke-speed-sensor_402375

    Has festinaboy - Vayer - said anything about Hayward? I see some tweets about Greipel - most of which, for me, need translation out of tech-speak anyway - but none about Hayward.

    But those numbers VN quotes are ephing massive. And I have no idea if they are considered "human" or not. From what I know, and it may be little, those numbers are more than massive, the are gargantuan. But that edge that the top guys have over everyday beings (like myself, even when I was fit and racing) can be like that - they can just naturally do things I never will.

    Anyway, like I said, the question has to be asked. For my own peace of mind, if nothing else. My suspicion in this case is zero, but that does not mean my skepticism has died and atrophied.


    I always love it when lifelong support riders win but Hayford is someone I literally have never noticed ever, not as support or just some kind of minor talent shown for himself. So I wasn't excited for arguably the most surprising winner of a classic ever. I get that Heynor did not have to respond to the action around Arenberg and later but still he had to pedal all kms like the others and in the end he was like twice as strong as the others in the break. And then afterwards the knowledge of Hayson's past connection with Sky not to mention Rabobank and the fact that he only had two racing days before Roubaix. All told super suspicious by Hayden of course.
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  • hiero

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #7 on: April 16, 2016, 20:06 »

     . . .Hayford  . . .Heynor  . . . Hayson . . . Hayden of course.

    Methinks you are being all too cleverly tongue in cheek. I fixed it, I fixed it, ok? Hayman. Sheesh.

    All the rest of what you say? Yeah, I may have heard his name before, but it never stuck in my mind. I will guess you were serious about that bit - and if so, we are far from alone. Anyway, I'm happy for the guy, and I'm satisfied (ATM) with the more serious answers previous in this thread that addressed my wattage questions.
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  • hiero

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #8 on: April 16, 2016, 20:11 »
    meh

    1 - breaking the meter - really?   this is Paris-Roubaix.  Everything breaks!!!!   Its cobbles.  These things are not meant to sustain rough treatment like that.

    2 - power numbers - I am far from an expert in these things.  In fact I barely follow it.  But from what I understand they are talking about short bursts of major power .... not sustained efforts up Mont Venteux.   He won by a wheel - so surely whatever his power was, the other 5 have to be roughly the same ....




    Psst - btw, its Hayman, not Hayward  ;) )

    TY for the heads up on the error. Fixed it.

    Good point about all 5 being roughly the same. This was a  beautiful P-R. I've got the full ES broadcast recorded - I think I'll store it on a DVD.
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  • ciranda

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #9 on: April 17, 2016, 11:51 »
    Methinks you are being all too cleverly tongue in cheek. I fixed it, I fixed it, ok? Hayman. Sheesh.

    All the rest of what you say? Yeah, I may have heard his name before, but it never stuck in my mind. I will guess you were serious about that bit - and if so, we are far from alone. Anyway, I'm happy for the guy, and I'm satisfied (ATM) with the more serious answers previous in this thread that addressed my wattage questions.


    No I thought it was great, the mistaken name exactly illustrated and mirrored my who tf is that guy reaction to what happened in the race.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #10 on: April 17, 2016, 12:25 »
    Making Hayman while the sun shines.

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  • L'arri

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #11 on: April 20, 2016, 19:15 »
    Updated ^^
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  • Claudio Cappuccino

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #12 on: April 20, 2016, 21:14 »
    I would say Henao given the last two months but I guess CADF beat me to it  :o
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #13 on: April 20, 2016, 21:20 »
    Can we just add all Russians in together at 9.99?

    Then, if they haven't been busted within 12 months they become a 9.98...and so on.

    By the end of their careers they could be below 9.90, however unlikely that may seem.

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  • Claudio Cappuccino

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #14 on: April 20, 2016, 21:24 »
    Can we just add all Russians in together at 9.99?

    Then, if they haven't been busted within 12 months they become a 9.98...and so on.

    By the end of their careers they could be below 9.90, however unlikely that may seem.
    Thats p{r}etty racism Joel. You can do better.
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  • Flo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #15 on: April 20, 2016, 21:41 »
    HeyNow
    Thomas Geraint
     :cool
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    Mellow Velo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #16 on: April 20, 2016, 22:15 »
      I called Sergey "Santa" Firsanov after stage 2 of Coppi e Bartali.
     That boy has more motor than the Kawasaki factory.

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #17 on: April 20, 2016, 22:20 »
      I called Sergey "Santa" Firsanov after stage 2 of Coppi e Bartali.
     That boy has more motor than the Kawasaki factory.
    He's going very well, that's for sure.
    Should Zakarin be worried that he won't be the best Russian at the Giro? I think so.
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  • Claudio Cappuccino

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #18 on: April 20, 2016, 22:21 »
      I called Sergey "Santa" Firsanov after stage 2 of Coppi e Bartali.
     That boy has more motor than the Kawasaki factory.
    Yeah, but, Meldonium doesnt Cound anymore.
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  • ciranda

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #19 on: April 20, 2016, 23:31 »
    Is Sergei Firsanov more suspicious than Stephen Cummings?

    While he does not have a lot of great results they are quality with wins every year. He has never been mediocre in big races for whole seasons. He has made the most of Rusvelo's race program, in other words, and crucially did not miss a lot of opportunities to do well. Not too different from the trajectory of somebody like Przemyslaw Niemiec maybe. And Sergei turned down Katyusha because he wanted to ride for himself instead of being made support for Rodriguez in the mountains.

    Cummings had been around for a long time when he suddenly improved a lot. Of course he put in work as support for others but also had opportunities. But rarely showed anything until the last couple years that has seen incredible epic results coming and coming and coming (thanks Bobby Byrd). And in the absolutely most difficult races, Pais Vasco and Tirreno, against the hardest competition, not to mention top french guys in the TDF. Contrary to Firsanov who races vs Bardiani and Nippo Fantini guys and now has posted a cool result after three kms uphill done barely better than Damiano Cunego.

    That Cummings now races sort of like peak level Luis Leon Sanchez is super suspect. With Firsanov to me it's not very unlikely that the years of steady improvement, selective racing and the bigger setup of the team now has come together for him to shine.

    Hope he can do a good Giro.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #20 on: April 21, 2016, 08:51 »
    Is Sergei Firsanov more suspicious than Stephen Cummings?

    While he does not have a lot of great results they are quality with wins every year. He has never been mediocre in big races for whole seasons. He has made the most of Rusvelo's race program, in other words, and crucially did not miss a lot of opportunities to do well. Not too different from the trajectory of somebody like Przemyslaw Niemiec maybe. And Sergei turned down Katyusha because he wanted to ride for himself instead of being made support for Rodriguez in the mountains.

    Cummings had been around for a long time when he suddenly improved a lot. Of course he put in work as support for others but also had opportunities. But rarely showed anything until the last couple years that has seen incredible epic results coming and coming and coming (thanks Bobby Byrd). And in the absolutely most difficult races, Pais Vasco and Tirreno, against the hardest competition, not to mention top french guys in the TDF. Contrary to Firsanov who races vs Bardiani and Nippo Fantini guys and now has posted a cool result after three kms uphill done barely better than Damiano Cunego.

    That Cummings now races sort of like peak level Luis Leon Sanchez is super suspect. With Firsanov to me it's not very unlikely that the years of steady improvement, selective racing and the bigger setup of the team now has come together for him to shine.

    Hope he can do a good Giro.

     Nice post mostly, with some fair points.
    However......
    Always good to go with using a Brit as an example of rapid progress. Will get at least half the average forum on board from the start.
    Cummings wins on average perhaps one race a year, so yes, similar there. But they are almost exclusively out of the top draw, so no, not similar.
      Now imagine if someone tried to use stage wins in last year's Grand Prix of Adygeya or the Tour of Kavkaz in 2014 to qualify Cumming's progression to Giro GC dark horse as normal.
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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #21 on: April 21, 2016, 09:06 »
    to be fair, Firsanov won the Vuelta Madrid four years ago already, smashing the composition by two minutes, dropping Landa and Quintana like a stone on the final climb
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #22 on: April 21, 2016, 09:19 »
    to be fair, Firsanov won the Vuelta Madrid four years ago already, smashing the composition by two minutes, dropping Landa and Quintana like a stone on the final climb

     
     I know. Both just turned 22. Quintana newly arrived at Movistar and Landa with carrot form.
    What happened next, though?

    Four years ago, Cummings poached a stage win the Vuelta from the breakaway as in Tirreno, TDF.
    Different MOs, better palmares, yet folks thought it relevant in terms of rapid progression.

    Anyhow, I am going to leave it there. Be interesting to see how things pan out over the next couple of days and the next few weeks.
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  • « Last Edit: April 21, 2016, 09:33 by Mellow Velo »

    AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #23 on: April 21, 2016, 10:03 »
    as always - we need to add Valverde to the list.

    Am constantly amazed at how much better he has ridden since he stopped using PED's and rides clean  :-x
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  • cj2002

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #24 on: April 21, 2016, 10:15 »
    as always - we need to add Valverde to the list.

    Am constantly amazed at how much better he has ridden since he stopped using PED's and rides clean  :-x

    That's not baseless suspicion, though. That's well-founded scepticism based on a knowledge of his character and past actions.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #25 on: April 21, 2016, 10:25 »
    Thats p{r}etty racism Joel. You can do better.

    Well it's pretty clear that 99.99% of their athletes are on state-required doping programmes, and it doesn't take a massive leap to expand that across all sports.

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #26 on: April 21, 2016, 11:14 »
    as always - we need to add Valverde to the list.

    Am constantly amazed at how much better he has ridden since he stopped using PED's and rides clean  :-x

    I found the quote by his DS José-Luis Arrieta quite interesting this week...

    “Whatever the race, Valverde is always in shape. Even when he shows up on day one of a winter training camp, he’s at his best. And as usual, he’s again super motivated by this week, even though his race calendar has changed this year.”

    ...and he really seems to be the only rider there is, with that kind of season-long peak
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #27 on: April 21, 2016, 11:25 »
    I do hate to say it - but Nibali too has that kind of peak (usually)

    rides Tireno/Paris Nice to win ... Rides San Remo to win ... rides Liege to win ... rides a GT or two (and a warm up week long stage race like Dauphine) ... then backs up for the Worlds / Lombardia / Autumn classics

    Its great that he rides the classics, and not just for training but genuinely tries to win - but the reason that many of the GT riders dont is that they cant maintain a peak for that long. 

    Riding season through is a bit of a dodgy-mometer for me
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #28 on: April 21, 2016, 11:39 »
    I do hate to say it - but Nibali too has that kind of peak (usually)

    rides Tireno/Paris Nice to win ... Rides San Remo to win ... rides Liege to win ... rides a GT or two (and a warm up week long stage race like Dauphine) ... then backs up for the Worlds / Lombardia / Autumn classics

    Its great that he rides the classics, and not just for training but genuinely tries to win - but the reason that many of the GT riders dont is that they cant maintain a peak for that long. 

    Riding season through is a bit of a dodgy-mometer for me

    The only difference being Valverde is always on the podium, and Nibali is always nowhere near the podium.

     :lol
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  • cj2002

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #29 on: April 21, 2016, 12:03 »
    Riding season through is a bit of a dodgy-mometer for me

    I see your point, but... Being strong and competitive and wanting to win every race you enter, as Valverde and Nibali do, is surely no more a sign of dodgy goings-on than cherry-picking certain races and being able to selectively peak for them, often with a convenient 8-day gap before hand[1].

    The fact that Valverde tries to "peak" for the whole season and thus usually ends up losing a raft of time on a small bridge on about Day 8 of the Tour is more reassuring than anyone who blitzes the competition the day after a rest day.
     1. Mention no team or rider names, of course...
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