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hiero

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Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
« Reply #30 on: April 22, 2016, 00:21 »
Yeah, but, Meldonium doesnt Cound anymore.

OW!  Who passed out the beans everybody's eating today!!??? Wah.

Well, you guys made me laugh - and it's been a hard week - so good.

Cheers!
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    DB-Coop

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #31 on: April 22, 2016, 07:09 »
    The fact that Valverde tries to "peak" for the whole season and thus usually ends up losing a raft of time on a small bridge on about Day 8 of the Tour is more reassuring than anyone who blitzes the competition the day after a rest day.

    Agree, there are times doping where you would not want to get tested, and the best way to get tested is to race and to win. Also personally I am not sure how I feel about peaking being a thing, maybe you can peak in the sense that you use too much effort over a period so you have to decline, say when racing a GT, but the idea of reaching a certain form and then in no way shape or form being able to maintain it for more than 14 days is a bit confusing to me.

    Riders on short schedules are more dodgy imo. and they have almost disapeared in this day and age as well. Michael Rasmussen comes to mind, a few noncompetitive races and then a long break before blitzing the tour, or indeed Lance where it is just a ride in Georgia, a break and then Dauphine and Tour.

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  • Servais Knavendish

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #32 on: April 22, 2016, 09:09 »
    Agree, there are times doping where you would not want to get tested, and the best way to get tested is to race and to win.

    Showing my naivety here - but surely if you are 'juiced' you don't go into any event hoping not to be tested, regardless of your result, you must be relying on time, masking agents, ... something other than the luck of the sample lottery to avoid detection?
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #33 on: April 22, 2016, 09:10 »
    the idea of reaching a certain form and then in no way shape or form being able to maintain it for more than 14 days is a bit confusing to me.
    Look at footballers, e.g.
    They start training in pre-season, then have 4-5 months of matches, maybe a winter break (or indeed even more matches if playing in England), another 5 months, a couple of weeks of vacation, and finally start training again.

    Nobody there says: "I'll peak for the 4th & 5th match in the Champions League group stage, and then I'll take it easy for the rest of the autumn season. Finally I'll be in top shape for the last matches of the league."
    Just how footballers manage to be in shape for 10 months is another issue - but they do.
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    Havetts

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #34 on: April 22, 2016, 09:12 »
    Showing my naivety here - but surely if you are 'juiced' you don't go into any event hoping not to be tested, regardless of your result, you must be relying on time, masking agents, ... something other than the luck of the sample lottery to avoid detection?

    Yea seems like youre on a sh*tty doping program if you arent allowed to win and need to avoid the lucky daily test. Surely you'd account for the tests on the day you need to perform.
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  • DB-Coop

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #35 on: April 22, 2016, 09:22 »
    Showing my naivety here - but surely if you are 'juiced' you don't go into any event hoping not to be tested, regardless of your result, you must be relying on time, masking agents, ... something other than the luck of the sample lottery to avoid detection?

    Yes, the winning just adds to the risk, but as I said it is more about racing vs. not racing.

    Look at footballers, e.g.
    They start training in pre-season, then have 4-5 months of matches, maybe a winter break (or indeed even more matches if playing in England), another 5 months, a couple of weeks of vacation, and finally start training again.

    Nobody there says: "I'll peak for the 4th & 5th match in the Champions League group stage, and then I'll take it easy for the rest of the autumn season. Finally I'll be in top shape for the last matches of the league."
    Just how footballers manage to be in shape for 10 months is another issue - but they do.

    My point exactly and the second point I have is, did cyclist do so before BB's became a thing?
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #36 on: April 22, 2016, 10:06 »
    Look at footballers, e.g.
    They start training in pre-season, then have 4-5 months of matches, maybe a winter break (or indeed even more matches if playing in England), another 5 months, a couple of weeks of vacation, and finally start training again.

    Nobody there says: "I'll peak for the 4th & 5th match in the Champions League group stage, and then I'll take it easy for the rest of the autumn season. Finally I'll be in top shape for the last matches of the league."
    Just how footballers manage to be in shape for 10 months is another issue - but they do.
    Why are we looking at footballers? I'm struggling to think of a sport that's less like cycling in terms of its physiological demands. Darts maybe.
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  • DB-Coop

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #37 on: April 22, 2016, 10:09 »
    Darts maybe.

    Cycling certainly doesn't have the same demand for high tolerance of alcohol that dart does  :lol
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #38 on: April 22, 2016, 11:28 »
    Why are we looking at footballers? I'm struggling to think of a sport that's less like cycling in terms of its physiological demands. Darts maybe.

    Exactomondo.

    And footballers don't really show if they are 5% below full fitness.
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  • Claudio Cappuccino

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #39 on: April 22, 2016, 21:14 »
    At least Firsanov didnt get on the podium of Trentino.

    [or, he just superpeaked for the last 3 weeks of course, whats to say about that, like the south americans do in Argentina in the end of januari/beginning of februari; Diaz etc etc]
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  • hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #40 on: April 24, 2016, 13:18 »
    Agree, there are times doping where you would not want to get tested, and the best way to get tested is to race and to win. Also personally I am not sure how I feel about peaking being a thing, maybe you can peak in the sense that you use too much effort over a period so you have to decline, say when racing a GT, but the idea of reaching a certain form and then in no way shape or form being able to maintain it for more than 14 days is a bit confusing to me.

     . . .

    Peaking has been well known since before I was racing. It's for endurance events, not something like footballing. Power lifters might have a peak, I don't know. But you can fine tune your fitness to such a razor's edge that you really can not maintain it. It lasts for about 2 weeks to a month - sometlhing like that. Then you drop back to, I forget, but maybe about 75% of that, whether you want to or not. You can maintain, oh, I don't know, but maybe 80 or 90% for a much longer time? Maybe all race season. That would be a question for a trainer or sports med. I think I recall one of the rider's blogs or interviews fairly recently mentioning that his team wanted him to be a domestique, so his goal was 90% for the whole season.

    I remember having discussions about trying to peak twice in a single year. It was regarded as very difficult, if not impossible, but could be done if done with care. You needed a sufficient break in between peaks. Sometimes it was a struggle just to get the peak at all. But the pros - man - must be a lot easier and a lot harder at the same time. Lots of med tests to determine what's up, at the same time all that pressure to perform as a result of the tests.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #41 on: May 27, 2016, 20:01 »
    Nibali 9.9/10

    Giro Stage 19 transformation one for the ages
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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #42 on: May 28, 2016, 16:33 »
    Nibali 9.9/10

    Giro Stage 19 transformation one for the ages

    Today rocks the 10/10.... outwith Nibali and Froome every other racer in the last 30 years would be getting hammered in the media for a performance like that in the last two days... never been a fan, even less likely to be now!
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #43 on: May 28, 2016, 19:40 »
    Today rocks the 10/10.... outwith Nibali and Froome every other racer in the last 30 years would be getting hammered in the media for a performance like that in the last two days... never been a fan, even less likely to be now!

    No different than Aru last year.

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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #44 on: May 28, 2016, 21:13 »
    I'm sorry that none of you believe in miracles.

     :D
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  • Sizzle

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #45 on: May 29, 2016, 03:37 »
    I'm a fan of Nibali as a racer - he fights, attacks, has the whole range of skills and he's descending is a real treat to watch. You know at the end of a race that Nibali has given it his all.

    But his win this Giro leaves a nasty, dirty taste in my mouth. I didn't see every stage but I certainly saw enough to know that the man of the last few days was very different to the man of the first two and a half weeks. Seems his rest day magic was much more potent than anyone else's.

    So, let's see, 11/10  ?

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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #46 on: May 29, 2016, 05:08 »
    see I had no doubt whatsoever that he would come back.

    to me the surprise wasnt the Nibali of stage 19+20 but hte Nibali of earlier stages ... losing time to Kruijswijk and Chavez on a Mountain Time Trial?   really?   that isnt the Nibali we normally see.

    I dont actually see this giro as anything super spectacularly suspicious.   (and that is from me who thinks pretty much all riders are dodgy)

    They all at some point had bad days.

    They all fought back and had better days.

    They all dropped on mountains ... and equally made up time on mountains when they were feeling good.


    that to me is signs that things are ... if not getting better then at least equaling out


    Nibali didnt as much win this Giro, as Kruijswijk and Chavez respectively did lose it.
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  • Slapshot

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #47 on: May 29, 2016, 07:37 »
    I'm sorry that none of you believe in miracles.

     :D

     :shh :shh :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol
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  • t-72

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #48 on: May 29, 2016, 08:04 »
    Come on, ya'all can write better baseless accusations than this! :)
    Personally I'd like to call out the entire grupetto, they made it to the finish on some pills referred to as "M&M" supplied by Larry Warbasse on the Colle Lombarde yesterday. No wonder they all made time cut. The question is, what was it really, on the inside of the sugar coating?


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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  • Slow Rider

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #49 on: May 29, 2016, 10:59 »
    Nibali won stage 19 mostly due to his team (plus Pirazzi). Him and Chaves had a big lead on the rest prior to that final climb, which Nibali extended a bit. On stage 19, Nibali took a grand 13 seconds on Uran and Valverde. There it was more the collapse of Chaves that decided the race. Had Chaves been able to stay with Valverde - as he could every day until that day - he would have won the Giro. I mean, Chaves finished behind Jungels and a Kruijswijk with a broken rib.

    Vincenzo won because he kept attacking even when it seemed hopeless, but had Chaves not lost his form and Kruijswijk not collapsed Nibali would have been third and we'd all have been talking about how suspicious it is Kruijswijk wins a GT after never even being close to the podium.
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #50 on: May 29, 2016, 11:10 »
    I'm a fan of Nibali as a racer - he fights, attacks, has the whole range of skills and he's descending is a real treat to watch. You know at the end of a race that Nibali has given it his all.

    But his win this Giro leaves a nasty, dirty taste in my mouth. I didn't see every stage but I certainly saw enough to know that the man of the last few days was very different to the man of the first two and a half weeks. Seems his rest day magic was much more potent than anyone else's.

    So, let's see, 11/10  ?

    So what of Nieve and Atapuma, who were both faster than Nibali over those two days aggregated: are you saying that they are 13/10?
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #51 on: May 29, 2016, 12:05 »
    So what of Nieve and Atapuma, who were both faster than Nibali over those two days aggregated: are you saying that they are 13/10?

    I'm not really sure that's the point. Astana seem to make a habit of having their GC riders get better right at the end of a 3 week race which goes against all science.

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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #52 on: May 29, 2016, 14:42 »
    If it is inconceivable that riders legitimately do better compared to their rivals at the end of a three week race, then there should be no three week races, as the only legitimate answer will have been reached after 2 1/2 weeks.  Or maybe there is no legitimate relative improvement in the final few days of a 2 1/2, so races shouldn't be more than 2 weeks, or ...

    Nibali was 13 seconds faster than Valverde and Uran: is this proof that Valverde and Uran were doped? As well as Atapuma and Nieve?
    Might it not be that his resilience and recuperation is better?  Once you exclude the possibility that people have varying physical capabilities, you remove the possibility of competitive sport.
    He overtook three riders in the course of those three days: Kruijswijk fell and broke a rib; Valverde is known to have difficulties with cold and altitude; Chaves was caught up and left behind by Majka, Uran, Jungels and an injured Kruijswijk.

    It might be that Nibali will be proved to have cheated: it might be that any member of the peloton will be found to have cheated to stay in the groupetto. But to assume that doping must be the reason that someone wins when his win was not inevitable with 2 out of 9 potentially decisive stages remaining (the 2 most suited to him) is cynical to the extent of being scarcely compatible with any positive interest in the sport.

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  • « Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 14:58 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Caruut

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #53 on: May 30, 2016, 13:36 »
    At first this victory left a bit of a sour taste in my mouth. Cycling can make it hard not to be a cynic sometimes. I don't think it helped at all either that the two riders who fell by the wayside with the Nibali "resurgance" were Kruijswijk and Chaves, both of whom I rather wanted to win the thing.

    Upon reflection, I don't feel this causes me to be any more sceptical of Vincenzo than I already was. He is a top level GT GC rider, riding for a team that's had its fair share of controversy - in the back of my mind there I know that there's a possibility that what we see isn't 100% legal, and a probability that it's not 100% natural.

    Some reasons not to be too sceptical
    • Let's be real here though, Nibali is one of the most accomplished racers of his era. He's one of only 6 riders to win all three GTs, and this Giro win brings him 10th on the all-time list of GC victories.
    • He wasn't dropping Froome, Quintana and Contador here, it was Este Chaves and a bashed up Steven Kruijswijk. Both are fine riders, but simply not of Nibali's pedigree overall. With Chaves in particular, I don't think we should be surprised at a relative GT newbie fading at the end of a 3 week race.
    • Had Kruijswijk managed to stay upright, it's unlikely we'd even be having this discussion.
    • It's also very important to consider that his real trump card - descending - is particularly potent when used by a rider with a strong team against a rider with a weak team.

    Some reasons to be sceptical
    • This final weekend romp is becoming a bit of an Astana habit.
    • It really was quite the turnaround.
    • The turnaround was very well timed.

    That about sums it up for me. Yes they keep performing well at the end of 3 week races. But, well is a relative term, and the whole point of a 3 week race is that it brings the body to the very edge of its limits. As others have pointed out, Chaves was clearly taken past his limits - Uran had barely been present all race but was coasting past him too. To me GTs like this - where every rider has up and down days - are a good sign and not a bad one.

    EDIT: Been thinking it over and looking at the results through the race - really the only way you can say he had a bad Giro up until the last two stages is if you are judging him against his own very high standards. He got into the top 10 after the first stage of any real difficulty - stage 4 - and didn't leave it for the whole race, spending much of it on the podium and all of the second half in the top 4. So, if he has only had a "bad" race relative to his own historical level, it seems a little unfair to be suspicious of him for being at the level he was being judged against.
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  • « Last Edit: May 30, 2016, 15:10 by Caruut »

    Yellow Peril

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #54 on: June 01, 2016, 21:17 »
    TBH I don't suspect Nibs of doping. If I were to point a finger it would be at those that are a little over the hill but still dishing it out. Having said that I'm not naming names as I'm really enjoying Pro cycling at the moment and no-one is going to over me a David Walsh-esque book or film deal if in 5 years time it is proven that I was right. 

    Armstrong got his pants pulled down 3 years ago, let's enjoy the racing party we have. Let the good times roll!
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    Sizzle

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #55 on: June 07, 2016, 23:26 »
    I don't get to see much cycling these days, but what I had seen of Nibali through the year prior to the Giro and through the Giro until the final rest day seemed well below his normal form. So it was the quick and timely turnaround of apparent strength that gave me that strange taste in my mouth.

    But I defer to those of you whose knowledge of cycling surpasses mine.  Wait  ... that's all of you.   :o

     :D
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #56 on: June 30, 2016, 14:54 »
    just reading through this and realised - nobody bothered to nominate Roglic !!!

    2nd by a tiny margin to Dumoulin at the Giro Prologue ... then wins the 40km ITT.   


    9/10
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  • hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #57 on: July 23, 2016, 01:44 »
    sh*t. I'm blue, y'all. Black clouds, blue mood, no clear sky. Ha, funny word coincidence there.

    I've not been shy about my feelings about Froome. And this TdF TT? Only make me think more than ever Froome, and by extension, Sky, are up to something and that something is no good. I don't like it.

    Fiddlesticks. I guess only time, and history, will tell.
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #58 on: July 23, 2016, 05:38 »
    you need to nominate a number on the index of suspicion Hiero.

    For Froomey then - lets say 9.5 ???
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #59 on: July 23, 2016, 09:00 »
    Nibali won stage 19 mostly due to his team (plus Pirazzi). Him and Chaves had a big lead on the rest prior to that final climb, which Nibali extended a bit. On stage 19, Nibali took a grand 13 seconds on Uran and Valverde. There it was more the collapse of Chaves that decided the race. Had Chaves been able to stay with Valverde - as he could every day until that day - he would have won the Giro. I mean, Chaves finished behind Jungels and a Kruijswijk with a broken rib.

    Vincenzo won because he kept attacking even when it seemed hopeless, but had Chaves not lost his form and Kruijswijk not collapsed Nibali would have been third and we'd all have been talking about how suspicious it is Kruijswijk wins a GT after never even being close to the podium.

    This, if Kruijswijk hadnt crashed he'd have won! Chaves cracked and him being a wee cutie doesnt help, Nibali would have been second at best.

    Just found this thread... interesting reading
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