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Trudgin

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Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
« Reply #60 on: July 23, 2016, 09:00 »
Nibali won stage 19 mostly due to his team (plus Pirazzi). Him and Chaves had a big lead on the rest prior to that final climb, which Nibali extended a bit. On stage 19, Nibali took a grand 13 seconds on Uran and Valverde. There it was more the collapse of Chaves that decided the race. Had Chaves been able to stay with Valverde - as he could every day until that day - he would have won the Giro. I mean, Chaves finished behind Jungels and a Kruijswijk with a broken rib.

Vincenzo won because he kept attacking even when it seemed hopeless, but had Chaves not lost his form and Kruijswijk not collapsed Nibali would have been third and we'd all have been talking about how suspicious it is Kruijswijk wins a GT after never even being close to the podium.

This, if Kruijswijk hadnt crashed he'd have won! Chaves cracked and him being a wee cutie doesnt help, Nibali would have been second at best.

Just found this thread... interesting reading
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    stereojet

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #61 on: July 23, 2016, 09:04 »
    you need to nominate a number on the index of suspicion Hiero.

    For Froomey then - lets say 9.5 ???

    I'd like to put Wout Poels on at least 8 too.
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #62 on: July 23, 2016, 09:33 »
    I'd like to put Wout Poels on at least 8 too.

    oh yeah

    and from this tour - you would have to put Majka and Thomas DeGendt up there too - every single day in the break is just too much to beleive

    if Poels is 8 then they each get a 7.5
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #63 on: July 24, 2016, 22:01 »
    No one questioning Aru's sudden collapse? Interesting coming after a pretty nondescript performance until stage 18 Astana burst into life and the best ITT of his life by a country mile.

    I guess we all know exactly why.

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #64 on: July 24, 2016, 22:09 »
    no, not at all
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    Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #65 on: July 24, 2016, 22:11 »
    Why no discussion or even mention on social media, or on here?

    If it was a Sky rider then there would've been 50 million tweets from PE teachers, idiot scientists and other know-alls.

    All a bit weird that a team with countless positives, a convicted and unrepentant doper as DS and many incidents from Nibali's car ride to Aru's 12 sticky bottles and phantom mechanicals the other day - when compared to a team without a blemish to their name as yet.

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #66 on: July 24, 2016, 22:18 »
    I just can't see what's supposed to be overly suspicious about a mediocre performance ending with a bad day

    Havetts mentioned it the other day, Astana went to the front and Dutch tv immediately accused them of doping, while they don't care that we have three different Dutch gc contenders out of nowhere, fighting for podiums in three consecutive grand tours. And in the same way, you use your double standards to praise Sky for Landa's time trial improvements due to all the preparation they did with him, while you blame Astana for Aru's time trial improvements due to all the preparation they did with him
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #67 on: July 24, 2016, 22:36 »
    If I was looking to place a bet on someone doping, then the first port of call would be to look at historical aspects. Lazarus-like improvements from Aru and Nibali in previous GTs in the final few stages, loads of positives etc.

    Now, you may think I'm a Sky fan because I'm British and regularly stick up for them, but frankly I think they're given a very rough time, unjustified and unfounded, but I'm actually coming at this from a neutral perspective. I don't like the way Sky can buy all the top talent and effectively crush the opposition as it happens, I don't think that will benefit cycling and I don't get any enjoyment from seeing that.

    But it seems totally illogical that after Landa's poor day in the Giro the Internet almost broke and yet when an Astana rider does the same thing there's not a sniff of accusation. Just bizarre.

    It defies all logic.
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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #68 on: July 24, 2016, 23:06 »
    well, I don't know what anyone said when Landa went sick in the Giro, nor do I care about it, or can see what one thing has to do with the other. All I wanted to say is, that Astana's Tour was pretty bad, and looked kinda "normal" to me. What's supposed to be bad about that, I don't know
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #69 on: July 25, 2016, 00:31 »
    I think Aru is doping - there hasnt been any question about that for me .... but I dont think him dying in the third week of a Tour is anything suspicious.

    As for Landa - the issue is that he came from absolutely no where last year to crush the giro ... and then this year hasnt exactly set the world on fire.  That is what makes people take a second look.    If you think the talk was bad this year, go back to last years Giro ... (when he was riding for AStana)



    My nomination would be Jarlinson Pantano.   Getting into a couple of breaks and winning one - fabulous.  Getting into the break almost every day in the mountains .... and 2nd's and a 1st ... that is a bit much
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #70 on: July 25, 2016, 08:21 »
    My nomination would be Jarlinson Pantano.   Getting into a couple of breaks and winning one - fabulous.  Getting into the break almost every day in the mountains .... and 2nd's and a 1st ... that is a bit much
    7, at least!
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    Caruut

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #71 on: July 25, 2016, 12:46 »
    If I was looking to place a bet on someone doping, then the first port of call would be to look at historical aspects. Lazarus-like improvements from Aru and Nibali in previous GTs in the final few stages, loads of positives etc.

    Now, you may think I'm a Sky fan because I'm British and regularly stick up for them, but frankly I think they're given a very rough time, unjustified and unfounded, but I'm actually coming at this from a neutral perspective. I don't like the way Sky can buy all the top talent and effectively crush the opposition as it happens, I don't think that will benefit cycling and I don't get any enjoyment from seeing that.

    But it seems totally illogical that after Landa's poor day in the Giro the Internet almost broke and yet when an Astana rider does the same thing there's not a sniff of accusation. Just bizarre.

    It defies all logic.

    I don't think it's that bizarre really, or that this is as big an issue as you seem to think it is. Most people here were saying (broadly) that the Landa incident looked a bit weird but that it would only make sense to get suspicious about it as part of a pattern of similar incidents.

    1. Nobody would really argue that Astana are a team with some history, and that their achievements should be taken with a pinch of salt. We can debate about the degree of advantage and disagree about how they compare to the rest of the peloton, but basically everybody accepts that something is going on. The issue of whether Sky are clean or not is - on English-speaking social media, at least - far less settled, so people discuss it.

    2. Aru cracked on the final mountain stage of week 3 having looked a bit off the pace all race. Landa did so after a rest day fairly early on, having just become the race favourite following his excellent time trial. Why would you suspect a rider suffering in week three of a GT would be due to doping and not due to having ridden several thousand kilometers? Normally you accuse Astana of being dodgy for being so good in week 3 - make your mind up. For Landa, on the other hand, there was clearly something seriously wrong, and it happened at a time where racing alone wouldn't have worn him down. He had an illness, and given the history of cycling and the fact that it was immediately post-rest day, people wondered.

    3. They're the biggest team in cycling at the moment. They've won 4 of the last 5 Tours de France, and would probably have won the fifth if not for a crash. You win that much you take the heat along with the glory. Just like Lance did.
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  • Havetts

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #72 on: July 25, 2016, 13:39 »
    Warning: National patriotic defense force incoming!

    Poels eventhough he was ridiculously strong isnt like he came out of nowhere, he was the guy who finished 2nd on the Angliru behind Cobo and almost died in that crash in the 2012 Tour which took him a long time to get back to good form again. So I would class Poels at a 7.

    Also Aru's collapse was a hunger knock, you saw it that they instantly tried to feed him energy bars. sh*tty rain all day, hard riding, people forget to eat. And its not like Aru was so impressive this Tour anyway.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #73 on: July 25, 2016, 14:05 »


     My nomination would be Jarlinson Pantano.   Getting into a couple of breaks and winning one - fabulous.  Getting into the break almost every day in the mountains .... and 2nd's and a 1st ... that is a bit much

     Nonsense, he is Colombian, therefore automatically qualifies as a zero. ;)

     I reckon Peter Sagan's hair is a solid 9 for caffeine.  :D


     As for Aru, I'd have put him as  9.9 after his Giro resurrection, last year, but his recent Dauphine and Tour performances aren't even worthy of nomination.
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    Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #74 on: July 25, 2016, 14:06 »
    I don't think it's that bizarre really, or that this is as big an issue as you seem to think it is. Most people here were saying (broadly) that the Landa incident looked a bit weird but that it would only make sense to get suspicious about it as part of a pattern of similar incidents.

    1. Nobody would really argue that Astana are a team with some history, and that their achievements should be taken with a pinch of salt. We can debate about the degree of advantage and disagree about how they compare to the rest of the peloton, but basically everybody accepts that something is going on. The issue of whether Sky are clean or not is - on English-speaking social media, at least - far less settled, so people discuss it.

    2. Aru cracked on the final mountain stage of week 3 having looked a bit off the pace all race. Landa did so after a rest day fairly early on, having just become the race favourite following his excellent time trial. Why would you suspect a rider suffering in week three of a GT would be due to doping and not due to having ridden several thousand kilometers? Normally you accuse Astana of being dodgy for being so good in week 3 - make your mind up. For Landa, on the other hand, there was clearly something seriously wrong, and it happened at a time where racing alone wouldn't have worn him down. He had an illness, and given the history of cycling and the fact that it was immediately post-rest day, people wondered.

    3. They're the biggest team in cycling at the moment. They've won 4 of the last 5 Tours de France, and would probably have won the fifth if not for a crash. You win that much you take the heat along with the glory. Just like Lance did.

    That's kind of my point.

    As well as coming back from the dead at the same point of Giro 2015, performing brilliantly at the same point of La Vuelta, and then in the Tour putting in an ITT way above anything he's ever done before, riding pretty well in stage 19 to stay with the top boys and then bang in stage 20!

    If you watch the footage his teammates are trying to give him food but he's turning it down. So, appears not to be a food bonk.

    All too odd for words.

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  • Caruut

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #75 on: July 25, 2016, 14:42 »
    That's kind of my point.

    As well as coming back from the dead at the same point of Giro 2015, performing brilliantly at the same point of La Vuelta, and then in the Tour putting in an ITT way above anything he's ever done before, riding pretty well in stage 19 to stay with the top boys and then bang in stage 20!

    If you watch the footage his teammates are trying to give him food but he's turning it down. So, appears not to be a food bonk.

    All too odd for words.

    A fairly easy explanation to me is that, by the last stage of a GT, he's completely wrecked and either has some kind of illness or his body has just given up.

    The difference is that Landa bonked in a way that has been historically associated with doping - an infected rest day blood bag - while I'm not clear what exactly you think has happened here. A bad bag doesn't really make sense to me - why would you not have infused on the rest day, and gotten 3 mountain stages and a TT out of it, as opposed to just one mountain stage?

    Also - was his TT that good? He lost 3 minutes to Froome on the flat one, and the other was in the mountains; if Purito is coming top 10 that's not a normal TT.
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  • hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #76 on: July 25, 2016, 17:00 »
    you need to nominate a number on the index of suspicion Hiero.

    For Froomey then - lets say 9.5 ???

    A number? You mean like 1 to 10? Ok, I've picked a number! I will buy a beer for the first one to guess it!

    Oh, Oh, Wait! You mean I have to TELL you what number I've picked?


    I don't know - I am really too partial to guess a fair number - but I'll go with 9.5 for now!
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  • Eeyore sez . . .

    Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #77 on: July 25, 2016, 20:40 »
    A number? You mean like 1 to 10? Ok, I've picked a number! I will buy a beer for the first one to guess it!

    Oh, Oh, Wait! You mean I have to TELL you what number I've picked?


    I don't know - I am really too partial to guess a fair number - but I'll go with 9.5 for now!

    I'll give Froomey a 3.
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  • pastronef

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #78 on: July 25, 2016, 21:45 »
    I dont know about which numbero must give to Bardet

    but here are his watts

    https://www.twitter.com/chronoswatts/status/757621638573744129



    and his climb average watts are on par with Froome

    https://www.twitter.com/chronoswatts/status/757622939198058497
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  • AG

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #79 on: July 26, 2016, 01:43 »
    I dont know about Bardet to be honest.

    He hasnt exactly come from nowhere - he is a young talent who has shone through at various times.  He will make the next step at some point also ...

    This Tour his 2nd place is more to do with the fact that he
    a - stayed upright, and
    b - attacked when everyone else wouldnt, couldnt or where on the deck.

    Other than that, he pretty much just stayed with the main guys whenever he could, had pretty reasonable time trials and didnt do anything spectacular.

    He also didnt have any responsibility to chase anyone, set the pace or do anything that needed a team (which was fortunate as his team was almost non-existant)


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  • pastronef

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #80 on: July 26, 2016, 06:23 »
    I dont know about Bardet to be honest.

    He hasnt exactly come from nowhere - he is a young talent who has shone through at various times.  He will make the next step at some point also ...

    This Tour his 2nd place is more to do with the fact that he
    a - stayed upright, and
    b - attacked when everyone else wouldnt, couldnt or where on the deck.

    Other than that, he pretty much just stayed with the main guys whenever he could, had pretty reasonable time trials and didnt do anything spectacular.

    He also didnt have any responsibility to chase anyone, set the pace or do anything that needed a team (which was fortunate as his team was almost non-existant)

    for sure
    I was noticing his watts, very high. and as a Froome fan, when he got blamed for his high watts, it's nice to see a French rider has got very high watts too  ;)
    and even Antoine Vayer pointed that out. fair from him
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  • Claudio Cappuccino

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #81 on: July 26, 2016, 14:56 »
    I just wanted to react to the Aru thingie, Joel, you are a fine ladd but seriously have to learn a lot about cycling. This was a classic bonk. The older girls and boys might remember Stephan Heulot in 1996, he was even crying the poor sod, if I am correct not long after in that stage Indurain cracked too.

    Numerous examples of bad weather bonks, even good weather bonks are not uncommon.

    And, this was a bad one, lost fifteen minutes in one climb?

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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #82 on: July 26, 2016, 20:17 »
    I just wanted to react to the Aru thingie, Joel, you are a fine ladd but seriously have to learn a lot about cycling. This was a classic bonk. The older girls and boys might remember Stephan Heulot in 1996, he was even crying the poor sod, if I am correct not long after in that stage Indurain cracked too.

    Numerous examples of bad weather bonks, even good weather bonks are not uncommon.

    And, this was a bad one, lost fifteen minutes in one climb?

    I'm going from memory but wasn't Heulot a knee injury rather than hunger knock/bonk.

    As you say though even the best have days where they get their food and fluid intake wrong
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  • hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #83 on: August 01, 2016, 21:24 »
    I'm going from memory but wasn't Heulot a knee injury rather than hunger knock/bonk.

    As you say though even the best have days where they get their food and fluid intake wrong

    Aye, aye, they do. Even the best. But wouldn't ya think it a bit less common in the past 20 years than before that? Gels, bars, all kinds of food scientifically meant to be quickly digested when the best you had before that was carrot cake and bananas, eh? Or a shot of brandy, you know?
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  • jimmythecuckoo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #84 on: September 15, 2016, 10:51 »
    I have watched and re-watched the recent Tour of Britain highlights trying to get a feel for the state of the UK domestic teams.

    This is based on having enjoyed the Larry H Miller Tour of Utah and been impressed by how the US home based squads took it to the World Tour outfits on a daily basis.

    There are mitigating factors in so far as the  #cannondale and  #trek teams for Utah weren't super super quality ( as M. Wenger would say), but you could argue that aside from  #sky , the top teams in the Tour of Britain were also weaker.

    In previous years the UK pros have been able to get into breaks before fading late stage without having contributed too much. There was the curious case of Ian Bibby stacking three years or so ago when he was that tired in a break he simply fell off. You can put Jonathan Tiernan-Locke to one side as he dominated the continental pros before getting popped.

    This year they likes of Madison and One Pro were getting into the breaks, pulling and hanging on until much deeper into the race.

    So why is that?

    Are the World Tour and Pro Continental teams coming back to the domestic teams as a result of lesser "programmes"?

    Or are the home based teams juiced up as a result of wanting to get to that next stage and wanted to show?

    I have watched and watched the footage and am none the wiser.

    What do you guys think?
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    hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #85 on: June 11, 2017, 03:08 »
    Valverde. He did all 3 GTs last year, right? And looks so in-form this year. Now, ok, I can see having a good year in the classics. And we didn't see him in the Giro. But really? Isn't this just too good to be true?

    I'm thinking he's found something. An edge. Either technically legal, or undetectable.

    He's gonna retire before he gets caught. But 2 years after he retires, something may come up - some new test - and then . . .

    Sad, if true.
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  • hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #86 on: September 12, 2017, 00:38 »
    There's not been much activity here of late!

    But this:
    http://www.velonews.com/2017/09/news/froome-says-grand-tour-triple-not-impossible_447991

    Oh, lord. If he even looks like he is going to attempt this, I am going to turn off and tune out any race he participates in.

    I. Just. Can't. Believe. It.

    Growth hormones, peptides, whatever - there must be something. My suspicion level for Froome, after this comment, stands at 9 and 44/100.
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #87 on: September 12, 2017, 07:34 »
    There's not been much activity here of late!

    But this:
    http://www.velonews.com/2017/09/news/froome-says-grand-tour-triple-not-impossible_447991

    Oh, lord. If he even looks like he is going to attempt this, I am going to turn off and tune out any race he participates in.

    I. Just. Can't. Believe. It.

    Growth hormones, peptides, whatever - there must be something. My suspicion level for Froome, after this comment, stands at 9 and 44/100.

    To be fair, he didn't say that he could, or would try to; he just said it isn't impossible, which it isn't.

    What twitched my antennae was after Froome's bad day, how adamant he was in the post race interviews that he and the team wouldn't perform so badly in future stages. How could he be so sure?

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  • « Last Edit: September 12, 2017, 08:52 by Capt_Cavman »

    hiero

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #88 on: September 12, 2017, 16:47 »
    To be fair, he didn't say that he could, or would try to; he just said it isn't impossible, which it isn't.

    What twitched my antennae was after Froome's bad day, how adamant he was in the post race interviews that he and the team wouldn't perform so badly in future stages. How could he be so sure?

    Obviously, I can't agree with that. Unless everybody else just gave up and didn't compete. In circumstances like that, sure. That would be like the peloton gifting my granny a GC win, just to make her feel good. Sure, it's possible.

    Remotely. Very remotely.

    I don't think it is possible in the real world. Without chemical assistance. Even in the EPO era nobody did it, and they had a BIG advantage.

    Regarding the bad day statement, though, I have to kind of agree. There may not be any evidence, but little things, like these. pop up periodically that just set my "WTF, did he just say that?" flags going.

    And I read that just after reading and responding to t-72 talking about Froome being bullied.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #89 on: September 13, 2017, 09:13 »
    I don't think it is possible in the real world. Without chemical assistance. Even in the EPO era nobody did it, and they had a BIG advantage.
    The one rider who came closest in that era[1] was Sastre ... and he didn't even try to go for it in 2006. It just ... happened:
    43rd in the Giro as a superdomestique for Basso (we all know that story). Promoted to team leader literally on the eve of the Tour, finished on the podium as 3rd. Then rounded it all out with 4th in the Vuelta.

    A few years later, he did target all three GTs from the start of the season, and arguably fared even better:
    8th in the Giro, 19th in the Tour, and 8th in the Vuelta.

    To conclude:
    It's possible to race all three GTs as a GC leader and be reasonably competitive.
    It's also possible to race all three GTs and podium, or even win, in two of them ... but then you won't be at your best in the third one[2].
    But racing all three and not only compete for a top-10, or a podium spot, but actually win them against strong and clever opposition? No. Just simply no.
     1. and remained remarkably untainted by doping accusations
     2. not meant chronologically here
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