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Servais Knavendish

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Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
« Reply #90 on: September 13, 2017, 09:54 »

To conclude:
It's possible to race all three GTs as a GC leader and be reasonably competitive.
It's also possible to race all three GTs and podium, or even win, in two of them ... but then you won't be at your best in the third one[1].

 1. not meant chronologically here

So yes think I am agreeing with your NB above  - that the Yellow-Red-Pink route does allow a GC rider to race to win all three / hold all three at the same time although not in the same calendar year... and as you suggest with difficult to forecast effect on the subsequent defence of the yellow.

Surely for Sky the temptation of holding all three GC' jerseys at one time with the same rider is more of a lasting monument than said rider winning another TdF... time will tell

Plus for the record and nothing to do with Darkside but I fully expect TT rainbow stripes to be added to the collection next week.
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #91 on: September 13, 2017, 11:01 »
    The one rider who came closest in that era[1] was Sastre ... and he didn't even try to go for it in 2006. It just ... happened...
     1. and remained remarkably untainted by doping accusations

    Personally I think you've made a case for the prosecution. Sastre was not a dominant rider and was, as you say, untainted by doping accusations unlike almost everyone else who finished above him during that era. And yet he still managed to be competitive in multiple GTs in a season.

    What if Contador had gone for it in 2011 and had a Sky-like team behind him? Dominant in the Giro, he could have ridden more conservatively and if he had not been so unlucky early on, done enough to beat an unconvincing Cadel in the Tour. Then the Vuelta which was picked up by Cobo; who's to say he couldn't have been the one to better take advantage of Sky backing the wrong horse?

    The point of all this isn't to say that Contador could have done a treble in 2011, it's to say that it is within the window of possibility for a dominant rider with a bit of good fortune, a great team and the ability to win even when not the strongest, to do so.

    Will Froome go for the Giro? In all honesty I think winning the Giro just once irrespective of what else he did that season, a race which due to the weather and temperatures clearly suits him least, would be a greater achievement than everything he has achieved so far. So no, I don't think he will.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #92 on: September 13, 2017, 11:25 »
    Personally I think you've made a case for the prosecution. Sastre was not a dominant rider and was, as you say, untainted by doping accusations unlike almost everyone else who finished above him during that era. And yet he still managed to be competitive in multiple GTs in a season.
    If you consider a 43rd place 'competitive', that is ...
    Loads of riders have the ability to do well in two GTs, and Sastre was one of them. When he put his mind to it (in 2010), he even managed to finish in the top-20 of all three, and in the top-10 of two.

    But there's a huge gap between coming 19th, 8th and 9th, and winning. Just think of Zubeldia and his ilk ... sneaking into the top-10 virtually unseen year after year. But I don't think even his own mother ever considered him a contender for the win.

    I do see your point, though: It's very unlikely, but it's not impossible if you have a dominant rider and an even more dominant team.
    But making sure nothing bad happens for 93 race days, that you never lose too much ground on your (considerably fresher) rivals, and remain able to take back time if and when needed ... I just find that so very unlikely that it could as well be impossible.
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    Capt_Cavman

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #93 on: September 13, 2017, 11:35 »
    ...

    I do see your point, though: It's very unlikely, but it's not impossible if you have a dominant rider and an even more dominant team.
    But making sure nothing bad happens for 93 race days, that you never lose too much ground on your (considerably fresher) rivals, and remain able to take back time if and when needed ... I just find that so very unlikely that it could as well be impossible.

    As impossible as winning seven TdFs in a row with luck on your side while misfortune befell everyone else around you and then forfeiting the lot 7 years after the last win without ever testing positive?
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  • M Gee

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    Re: L\'arri\'s Index of Suspicion 2016
    « Reply #94 on: September 13, 2017, 22:01 »
    . . .
    It's possible to race all three GTs as a GC leader and be reasonably competitive.
    It's also possible to race all three GTs and podium, or even win, in two of them ... but then you won't be at your best in the third one[1].
    But racing all three and not only compete for a top-10, or a podium spot, but actually win them against strong and clever opposition? No. Just simply no.
     1. not meant chronologically here

    Better researched and supported than my statements - thanks for that. As for doing all 3 - well we do have Adam Hansen for an example, but most GTs he has participated in he doesn't even win a stage. So, yeah, riding all 3 is doable. It's the winning part that makes me want to scream . . .

    Post Merge: September 13, 2017, 22:09
    As impossible as winning seven TdFs in a row with luck on your side while misfortune befell everyone else around you and then forfeiting the lot 7 years after the last win without ever testing positive?

    Now you've lost me as to which side you are arguing!   :lol 
    As for Sastre not testing positive, and not being tainted by doping accusations, AFAIC, we have sufficient testimony at this time to reasonably conclude that 99% of the peloton was doping in that era, and 100% of the winners were. Which would include Sastre - and tainted or no - well - as you point out - there WERE all those tests that didn't catch old Lancey boy. The obvious conclusion is that the testing regimes were easily fooled or corrupt or disfunctional or all of the above.

    . . . for 93 race days, that you never lose too much ground on your (considerably fresher) rivals, and remain able to take back time if and when needed ... I just find that so very unlikely that it could as well be impossible.

    Yeah - that.  :cool
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  • « Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 22:13 by hiero »
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    L'arri

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #95 on: January 29, 2018, 10:54 »
    I can't be bothered updating tables and whatnot but ... how about that Najar, eh, folks?  :P

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    Trudgin

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #96 on: January 29, 2018, 23:10 »

    I never understand this page...

    The 24 year old gaucho has taken more space than froome..

    no need to return to this page again really.  but somehow, when i saw it had been updated I knew it wouldn't be froome replicating the Vuelta in south africa, but the 24 yr old gaucho.

    nothing to see here
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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #97 on: January 29, 2018, 23:37 »
    hmm - but then Froome has 85 pages worth of posts in his own thread ... guessing people already think he is pretty suspicious.
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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #98 on: January 30, 2018, 07:16 »
    I never understand this page...

    The 24 year old gaucho has taken more space than froome..

    no need to return to this page again really.  but somehow, when i saw it had been updated I knew it wouldn't be froome replicating the Vuelta in south africa, but the 24 yr old gaucho.

    nothing to see here

    The thread is partly a parody of that very thing, how folks jump on every performance as proof of extraterrestrialism. But it is also partly a deadly serious flagging up exercise, a sort of "you heard it here first folks" pinboard.

    So all in all a kind of ironic doublethink, if you will, and very much in keeping with our times.  :lol
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #99 on: January 30, 2018, 10:51 »
    I never understand this page...

    The 24 year old gaucho has taken more space than froome..

    no need to return to this page again really.  but somehow, when i saw it had been updated I knew it wouldn't be froome replicating the Vuelta in south africa, but the 24 yr old gaucho.

    nothing to see here

    Has something happened with Froome? I'd completely missed that.

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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #100 on: February 05, 2018, 22:28 »
    I never understand this page...

    The 24 year old gaucho has taken more space than froome..

    no need to return to this page again really.  but somehow, when i saw it had been updated I knew it wouldn't be froome replicating the Vuelta in south africa, but the 24 yr old gaucho.

    nothing to see here

    Nothing to see? Weeellll, maybe not..............

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/vueltasanjuan
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    LukasCPH

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #101 on: February 05, 2018, 22:45 »
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: L'arri's Index of Suspicion
    « Reply #102 on: February 05, 2018, 22:49 »
    Nothing to see? Weeellll, maybe not..............

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/vueltasanjuan

    they were hacked... and either way - no one announces a positive like its a success.

    Probably some skybot trying to divert attention,  :D

    Im sure we will hear from UCI before anyone else

    But at least you went for the Gaucho, some areas of Twitter went straight to Nibali, who was home before the start  :cool
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