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LukasCPH

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2016 Nationals Prediction Game
« on: June 17, 2016, 21:14 »
It's time again for the much-beloved Nationals Prediction Game!

We've seen three editions of it already (2015, 2014 & 2013), so this is the fourth year running where we join each other in hunting down startlists, race routes, and profiles and put our minds to work in predicting who will win their country's championship and the accompanying right to wear a jersey in the national colours for the year that follows - one of the great things in cycling.


The rules
- To enter, simply send me a PM with your predictions (or post in the thread if you don't care about others stealing making good use of your expert picks). You can quote this post (remove the quote code if you want, but that's not strictly necessary) and simply write your prediction behind a given country's flag and the ITT/RR distinction.
-As we've learnt in past years, CQ's race calendar isn't always 100% correct. I will post the final line-up of races that form part of the game on Monday, until then the following list is tentative and only to give people an idea which countries will be included. If, after the final update on Monday, a country's championship is moved forward and held earlier than first thought, no points will awarded for this race. If it's held later, points will be awarded.
- If you get a RR champion right, you'll get 10 points; if you're the only one to predict that country's champion, 20 points.
- As ITTs are often very predictable, there are less points to be earned here - you get 5 points to predict the champion, 10 points if it was a unique pick.
- You don't have to hand in all your predictions at once – but in order to count, you will have to make your predictions before 23:59 CEST on the night before any given race. E.g., for the *dk ITT champs (held on 23th June), the entry must be posted before 23:59 CEST on 22th June.
- You're welcome to make your entries in stages, only posting your predictions for the next day(s).
- The final ranking will hopefully be done before the Tour starts.
- The winner gets bragging rights for a year.


The races[1]
Date Race Prediction
22/06 *nl ITT
22/06 *pl ITT
22/06 *ch ITT
23/06 *es ITT
23/06 *fr ITT
23/06 *gb ITT
23/06 *be ITT
23/06 *cz ITT
23/06 *no ITT
23/06 *sk ITT
23/06 *dk ITT
23/06 *ru ITT
23/06 *ie ITT
23/06 *ua ITT
23/06 *at ITT
23/06 *ca ITT
23/06 *by ITT
23/06 *se ITT
23/06 *hr ITT
23/06 *lt ITT
23/06 *tr ITT
23/06 *br ITT
24/06 *de ITT
24/06 *pt ITT
24/06 *lu ITT
24/06 *jp ITT
24/06 *az RR
25/06 *es RR
25/06 *nl RR
26/06 *fr RR
26/06 *it RR
26/06 *de RR
26/06 *gb RR
26/06 *pl RR
26/06 *ch RR
26/06 *be RR
26/06 *cz RR
26/06 *no RR
26/06 *pt RR
26/06 *sk RR
26/06 *si RR
26/06 *dk RR
26/06 *ru RR
26/06 *ie RR
26/06 *ua RR
26/06 *at RR
26/06 *lu RR
26/06 *kz RR
26/06 *ca RR
26/06 *by RR
26/06 *se RR
26/06 *hr RR
26/06 *ee RR
26/06 *lt RR
26/06 *lv RR
26/06 *jp RR
26/06 *tr RR
26/06 *br RR
 1. you can handily quote this table, then remove the quote codes, to post your own predictions (by PM or in this thread
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  • « Last Edit: June 23, 2016, 08:10 by LukasCPH »
    2017 0711|CYCLING PR Manager; 2016 Stölting Content Editor
    Views presented are my own.
    RIP Keith

    Flo

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #1 on: June 19, 2016, 14:04 »
     :cool I just now found out that you had already started this thread, I was planning on starting it on Monday  :cool
    Always fun, this game. Spending hours to find startlists on obscure Polish or Russian websites :lol
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  • RIP Keith

    LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #2 on: June 19, 2016, 21:34 »
    :cool I just now found out that you had already started this thread, I was planning on starting it on Monday  :cool
    I didn't win last year, so I decided I had to rig organise the game myself again. :P
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  • Not My Circus

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #3 on: June 20, 2016, 10:39 »
    I didn't win last year, so I decided I had to rig organise the game myself again. :P

    I LOVE this game END OF \o/
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  • Murrjt

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #4 on: June 20, 2016, 13:04 »
    We should have a bonus competition to guess how close Aleksejs Saramotins will be to the winner of the Latvian time trial.

    Year Margin
    2015 8 seconds
    2014 3 seconds
    2013 28 seconds
    2010 2 seconds
    2009 12 seconds

    He was also runner up in 2011 & 2012 but not by a particularly close amount.

    I've gone for the romantic option and picked him to finally end his 7 year runner up streak.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #5 on: June 21, 2016, 15:43 »
    I've checked the line-up of races one final time. *lu ITT is listed as Thursday on CQr - but I know from #stolting Alex Kirsch that it's held on Friday. :P
    Other changes are *be ITT moving from Wednesday to Thursday, and *az ITT & *az RR being added (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

    The final calendar is updated in the first post.
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  • « Last Edit: June 22, 2016, 01:19 by LukasCPH »

    LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #6 on: June 21, 2016, 16:07 »
    Oh, and since I'm in charge of the game, I'll take part out-of-competition only. :)
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  • Murrjt

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #7 on: June 21, 2016, 18:10 »
    The Estonian's were eager to get underway and held the ITT today.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 01:19 »
    The Estonian's were eager to get underway and held the ITT today.
    Those fools! :angry
    *ee ITT disqualifies itself from our most important competition. :(
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  • AG

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 07:07 »
    Oh, and since I'm in charge of the game, I'll take part out-of-competition only. :)

    you are free to do it Lukas

    pm me your choices beforehand as confirmation that you chose before the race
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  • Trudgin

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 07:09 »
    I've checked the line-up of races one final time. *lu ITT is listed as Thursday on CQr - but I know from #stolting Alex Kirsch that it's held on Friday. :P
    Other changes are *be ITT moving from Wednesday to Thursday, and *az ITT & *az RR being added (Thursday and Friday, respectively).

    The final calendar is updated in the first post.

    Italy ITT's i belive are 22nd
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  • I love Italian cycling, well cyclists & the odd Spaniard, oh & that 1 particular Slovakian  then there are those with names  that are great fun - zzzdnek steeeebar & Tieeeeeeeesj Benoooot

    Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #11 on: June 22, 2016, 07:35 »
    Italy ITT's i belive are 22nd

    So is Latvia according to PCS
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  • Not My Circus

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #12 on: June 22, 2016, 09:05 »
    So is Latvia according to PCS

    Italy... only links I've found have been for RR, so no idea. Other than it doesn't appear to be in the same place as the RR... So in the absence of Malori I'm going Moreno Moser.

    Latvia... Smukulis.... but GO TOMS :cheer
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  • Flo

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #13 on: June 22, 2016, 11:06 »
    Latvia and Kazakhstan are out of the competition as well, their ITTs were today
    It wasn't meant to be for Saramotins: Smukulis wins again, Gruzdev in Kazakhstan
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #14 on: June 22, 2016, 12:34 »
    Italy ITT's i belive are 22nd
    Ah sh*te.
    No points for *it ITT & *lv ITT & *kz ITT then.
    Sad for those that did pick the right winner, but them's the rules.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #15 on: June 22, 2016, 12:46 »
    you are free to do it Lukas

    pm me your choices beforehand as confirmation that you chose before the race
    Good idea. Done for today's 3 races! :)
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #16 on: June 22, 2016, 23:33 »
    According to Flo, Peter (and Juraj) Sagan, Peter Velits and Erik Baska aren't starting the *sk ITT.
    Therefore, I will allow changes to people's *sk ITT prediction until noon CEST.
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #18 on: June 23, 2016, 08:06 »
    Azerbaijan's TT was on Wednesday as well
    Yeah, all those championships (*it ITT too) have been summarily struck from the game. :(

    Lesson for next year: Double-check dates with other sites than CQranking, even if it's a bit more work.
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  • Flo

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #19 on: June 23, 2016, 10:40 »
    According to Flo, Peter (and Juraj) Sagan, Peter Velits and Erik Baska aren't starting the *sk ITT.
    Therefore, I will allow changes to people's *sk ITT prediction until noon CEST.
    but can you trust me? Mwuahahaha ;)
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #20 on: June 23, 2016, 11:09 »
    but can you trust me? Mwuahahaha ;)
    Well ... this is your opportunity to prove your trustworthiness. :P
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  • Flo

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #21 on: June 23, 2016, 12:19 »
    Lesson learned, you can also do too much research. Found out Lulu and Castro wouldn't race the Spanish ITT, guess who are on the final startlist, released this morning? Surprise, surprise :fp :P
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #22 on: June 23, 2016, 13:10 »
    I actually got the *az ITT right  :o :fp
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #23 on: June 23, 2016, 15:18 »
    I actually got the *az ITT right  :o :fp
    Please direct your justified anger at the *az cycling federation. ;)
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  • Flo

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #24 on: June 23, 2016, 20:32 »
    Lesson learned, you can also do too much research. Found out Lulu and Castro wouldn't race the Spanish ITT, guess who are on the final startlist, released this morning? Surprise, surprise :fp :P
    Nvm :D
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #25 on: June 23, 2016, 22:47 »
    With two days of racing done, here are the current standings:
    Place Name Points
    1 Flo 40
    2 Murrjt 30
    2 Leadbelly 30
    2 Midge 30
    2 Armchair Cyclist 30
    6 DJW 25
    6 AG 25
    8 LukasCPH 20
    9 Josedin 15

    Only two unique picks so far, Flo with *by Siutsou and AG with *ie Roche.

    Twelve races on tomorrow, many of which I had noted down for today.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #26 on: June 23, 2016, 22:48 »
    Date Race WINNER LukasCPH Murrjt DJW Flo Leadbelly Midge Josedin AG Armchair Cyclist
    22/06 *nl ITT Dumoulin Dumoulin 5 Dumoulin 5 Dumoulin 5 Dumoulin 5 van Emden 0 Dumoulin 5 van Emden 0 Kelderman 0 Dumoulin 0
    22/06 *pl ITT M. Bodnar Bialoblocki 0 M. Bodnar 5 Bialoblocki 0 M. Bodnar 5 Bialoblocki 0 Bialoblocki 0 Bialoblocki 0 L. Bodnar 0 M. Bodnar 5
    22/06 *ch ITT Cancellara Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5 Küng 0 Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5 Cancellara 5
    23/06 *es ITT I. Izagirre I. Izagirre 5 Castroviejo 0 I. Izagirre 5 I. Izagirre 5 I. Izagirre 5 I. Izagirre 5 I. Izagirre 5 Valverde 0 I. Izagirre 5
    23/06 *fr ITT Pinot Sylv. Chavanel 0 Pinot 5 Coppel 0 Pinot 5 Coppel 0 Le Bon 0 Coppel 0 Sylv. Chavanel 0 Le Bon 0
    23/06 *gb ITT Dowsett Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5 Dowsett 5
    23/06 *be ITT Campenaerts Lampaert 0 Lampaert 0 Lampaert 0 Lampaert 0 Campenaerts 10 van Keirsbulck 0 Lampaert 0 Vanderwalle 0 Lampaert 0
    23/06 *cz ITT König Barta 0 Barta 0 Vakoc 0 Barta 0 Barta 0 Barta 0 Barta 0 Vakoc 0 Barta 0
    23/06 *no ITT EBH Laengen 0 EBH 5 EBH 5 EBH 5 EBH 5 EBH 5 Laengen 0 EBH 5 EBH 5
    23/06 *sk ITT Canecky M. Kovac 0 P. Velits 0 Tybor 0 Metelka 0 P. Sagan 0 Tybor 0 M. Kovac 0 P. Sagan 0 Tybor 0
    23/06 *dk ITT Toft Würtz 0 S. Kragh 0 Würtz 0 Würtz 0 Würtz 0 Juul-Jensen 0 Fuglsang 0 Juul-Jensen 0 Würtz 0
    23/06 *ie ITT Roche Mullen 0 Mullen 0 Mullen 0 Mullen 0 Mullen 0 Mullen 0 Martin 0 Roche 10 Mullen 0
    23/06 *ua ITT Vasylyuk Grivko 0 Grivko 0 Lagkuti 0 Grivko 0 Zmorka 0 Vasylyuk 5 Grivko 0 Vasilyev 0 Vasylyuk 5
    23/06 *by ITT Siutsou Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0 Siutsou 10 Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0 Kiryienka 0
    23/06 *se ITT Wetterhall G. Larsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0 G. Larsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0 G. Larsson 0 T. Ludvigsson 0
    20 30 25 40 30 30 15 25 30
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #27 on: June 24, 2016, 05:29 »

    Only two unique picks so far, Flo with *by Siutsou and AG with *ie Roche.


    .... and Campenaerts for me.  :cool
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #28 on: June 24, 2016, 09:36 »
    .... and Campenaerts for me.  :cool
    Correct. Three unique picks. :cool

    I definitely need more sleep these days. :serious
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2016 Nationals Prediction Game
    « Reply #29 on: June 25, 2016, 07:15 »
    More racing done yesterday, even though not all results are in yet; still waiting for *tr ITT. And *ca ITT apparently is held next week only, meaning that it is out of this game - we want to have a winner after Sunday.

    4 5 unique picks so far:
    Date Race WINNER Player
    23/06 *be ITT Campenaerts Leadbelly
    23/06 *ie ITT Roche AG
    23/06 *by ITT Siutsou Flo
    24/06 *ru ITT Chernetskiy Murrjt
    24/06 *lt ITT Konovalovas Midge

    Current standings:
    Place Player Points
    1 Flo 70
    2 Murrjt 60
    3 DJW 55
    4 LukasCPH 50
    4 Leadbelly 50
    4 Midge 50
    7 Armchair Cyclist 45
    7 Josedin 45
    9 AG 40

    With a few exceptions, we're now moving on to the road races where the number of points on offer is double that of the ITTs. So nothing is decided yet.
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  • « Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 10:02 by LukasCPH »

     

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