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Leadbelly

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2017 Betting Challenge
« on: December 31, 2016, 05:39 »
It's fairly simple. Achieve the most profit[1] from a winning streak of H2Hs of any odds using a 1 unit stake per bet.

Rules:

No after eventing

Only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc)

No more than one bet per day


As I said in the main thread, you don't actually have to bet, but where is the fun in that. I'll be sticking with PP and Bet365, but I guess you can bet where you want. Those on Pinnacle might have a slight advantage with their higher odds.


Rank Gambling Addict Profit
/gm DJW 5.17
/sm Carlo 4.67
/bm Leadbelly 3.73
4 Arb 3.54
5 search 1.28
...
 1. Using the decimal odds system and with a 1 unit stake, your profit will be (Odds-1)
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  • « Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 18:20 by Leadbelly »

    Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #1 on: January 01, 2017, 22:13 »
    A couple of suggestions from me -

    Maybe it should just be even money or better, that way there isn't an advantage on books with lower margins. >2 is pretty hard and once you string a couple together caution will take over and might be waiting weeks for the next bet.

    I actually liked the idea of a "points competition" for largest gain from a streak (say min. 3 successful to qualify) although I'd make every bet 1 unit rather than reinvestment. This is where the Pinny players would get the benefit.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #2 on: January 01, 2017, 23:07 »
    The points competition does seem more interesting as the actual odds would be reflected in your scoring and different strategies could be employed. My reasoning for rejecting that from beforehand was the complication of keeping the scores when doing rollovers, but just a flat 1 unit bet every time would solve that to a great extent.

    I'm flexible as to what we do though, but what do others think? Carlo and search?

    If we couldn't come to a consensus before the first race, we could go South American and have seperate apertura and clausura competitions. Jan to May (inclusive) of one game varient and then June to Oct of another.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #3 on: January 02, 2017, 09:39 »
    I'd be happy with the one unit bet idea rather than it being a roll up. Would be a way to reward the bigger risk takers without the calculations needed for keeping an on going score from a roll up.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #4 on: January 02, 2017, 10:46 »
    First post modified to reflect the changes.

    When you achieve a new highest profit give me a nudge and I'll update the leaderboard.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #5 on: January 07, 2017, 20:28 »
    Does anyone know if there are any head 2 head betting available anywhere on the Aussie RR champs?

    I normally just use oddschecker to see if anyone has any betting available on a race but wondered if there were any that they might have there.
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #6 on: January 15, 2017, 02:07 »
    Theuns over B. Planckaert @ 1.90 (Bet365)
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #7 on: January 15, 2017, 09:57 »
    !!!

    1s @ +0.900u
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #8 on: January 15, 2017, 16:46 »
    J Bakelants over G Izaguirre @ 1.72 (Bet365)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #9 on: January 15, 2017, 19:16 »
    A good start for the thread, it's downhill all the way from here.  ;)

    J Bakelants over G Izaguirre @ 1.72 (Bet365)

    Don't forget it's "only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc)", so we can't accept that one DJW. Sorry.
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #10 on: January 15, 2017, 19:25 »
    A good start for the thread, it's downhill all the way from here.  ;)

    Don't forget it's "only stage/one day H2Hs (no GC/KoM etc)", so we can't accept that one DJW. Sorry.

    Whoops, in that case I'll have Tom van Asbroeck V Marko Kump @ 2 (bet365)
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #11 on: January 16, 2017, 09:44 »
    Crikey those are some average H2Hs for Stage 1. The winning strategy here is no doubt to be very patient and choose your days, but I'm going to learn that the hard day.

    2s - De Bie over Barbero @ 2.370 (Pinny)
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #12 on: January 16, 2017, 10:43 »
    The exception to the patience method (from the challenge point of view) should be when we're on zero, but I'm finding it difficult to override my normal betting instincts ie. I agree with you about the crap H2Hs so far.

    Stage two should bring us something we can all get our teeth into hopefully.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #13 on: January 16, 2017, 20:09 »
    Whoops, in that case I'll have Tom van Asbroeck V Marko Kump @ 2 (bet365)

    I'd just looked at the available h2hs for stage one on oddschecker and I was going to go for Van Asbroeck over Kump.

    Don't feel like I really can as you've already had it now.

    So as Its the start of the sequence of bets and so I can take a bigger risk I'll go for Bennett to beat Ewan @3.5 with Bet365
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #14 on: January 16, 2017, 22:06 »
    #1 Renshaw v Bonifazio 2.2 with Bet365

    Purely because he still got sixth in the Cancer Classic despite not exactly busting a gut all the way to the line.

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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #15 on: January 17, 2017, 08:07 »
    TDU Classic: Theuns over B. Planckaert @ 1.90 (Bet365) - WIN
    TDU Stage 1: De Bie over Barbero @ 2.370 (Pinny) - WIN

    2s @ +2.270u
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #16 on: January 17, 2017, 18:38 »
    McCarthy over Gerro, 2.1 @ Bet365
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #17 on: January 17, 2017, 19:33 »
    TDU Stage 2

    Petr Vakoc to beat Nathan Haas @2.1 with Bet365
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #18 on: January 17, 2017, 22:02 »
    Don't feel like I really can as you've already had it now.

    I kinda feel that way too. However the number of H2Hs on any one day are limited usually to about ten and once you get rid of the crap ones, you'll be lucky to get one or two real possibilities. So I don't want people to find all the good ones taken by the early birds and think they are only allowed to bet on the dross that's left.

    So as long as you have made the bet before seeing what others have done (maybe avoid this thread until you've made your pick), I have no problem with more than one person having any particular bet.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #19 on: January 17, 2017, 22:08 »
    #1 Dennis v Chaves 2.75 with Bet365

    Nothing from you yet search?
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  • search

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #20 on: January 17, 2017, 22:13 »
    I try to stay away from races that usually end up with a deficit anyway. Plus I can only bet on Pinny, who don't seem to offer tomorrow's stage for whatever reason
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #21 on: January 18, 2017, 18:37 »
    Dennis looked like he still had more in the tank. :(

    #1 Bevin v Battaglin 1.83 with PP

    Got to get one soon. I hope.
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #22 on: January 18, 2017, 20:13 »
    #2  Nikias Arndt over Mark Renshaw, 1.66 (bet365)
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #23 on: January 18, 2017, 21:14 »
    0/2 so far

    TDU stage 3: Swift to beat Sagan at 3.25 with Bet365
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #24 on: January 18, 2017, 21:41 »
    Dennis looked like he still had more in the tank. :(

    #1 Bevin v Battaglin 1.83 with PP

    Got to get one soon. I hope.

    my third on this at 1.87.
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #25 on: January 19, 2017, 09:25 »
    Streak 1

    TDU Classic: Theuns over B. Planckaert @ 1.90 (Bet365) - WIN
    TDU Stage 1: De Bie over Barbero @ 2.370 (Pinny) - WIN
    TDU Stage 3: Bevin over Battaglin @ 1.87 (Pinny) - WIN

    3s @ +3.140u
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #26 on: January 19, 2017, 19:02 »
    The game will be decided by the end of the first week at this rate. :P

    #2 Arndt v Theuns 2.2 with PP
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  • DJW

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #27 on: January 19, 2017, 19:18 »
    #3 van Poppel v Bonifazio @ 1.66 (PP)
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #28 on: January 19, 2017, 20:56 »
    TDU Stage 4

    Sagan to beat Ewan @ 3.0 with Bet365
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  • Arb

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    Re: 2017 Betting Challenge
    « Reply #29 on: January 19, 2017, 21:04 »
    TDU Stage 4

    Sagan to beat Ewan @ 3.0 with Bet365

    On the reverse, Ewan 1.40 @ PP
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