collapse


Not My Circus

  • Road Captain
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 1551
  • Liked: 1511
  • Something about Danish cycling I love
Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
« Reply #270 on: March 14, 2017, 10:02 »
TA St7
Dumoulin
Dennis
Castroviejo
Van Emden
Roglic
Morabito
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9666
    • Liked: 9474
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #271 on: March 14, 2017, 11:21 »
    Tirreno #7

    Küng
    Dowsett
    Kiryienka
    Dennis
    Castroviejo
    Sütterlin
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #272 on: March 16, 2017, 14:44 »
    Strade
    Kwiatkowski
    Van Avermaet
    Rosa
    Sagan
    Benoot
    Roglic

    Paris-Nice G.C
    Contador
    Porte
    Zakarin
    Bardet
    Izagirre
    Craddock

    Stage 1
    Kristoff
    Degenkolb
    Matthews
    Bonifazio
    Cort Nielsen
    Bardet

    Probably doesn't need clarifying but that's Ion not Gorka
    :)
    :hi :D
  • ReplyReply
  • RIP Keith

    DJW

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 1251
    • Liked: 852
    • Awards: Rio Olympics Prediction Champ
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #273 on: March 17, 2017, 09:12 »
    MSR

    Degenkolb
    Demare
    Sagan
    Kristoff
    Bouhanni
    Dumoulin
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31247
    • Liked: 10826
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #274 on: March 17, 2017, 09:45 »
    MSR
    Colbrelli
    Matthews
    Degenkolb
    Sagan
    Van Avermaet
    Bystrom
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 09:58 by just some guy »
    Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Murrjt

    • A Brother
    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 330
    • Liked: 521
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #275 on: March 17, 2017, 11:07 »
    MSR
    Demare
    Sagan
    Degenkolb
    Colbrelli
    Matthews
    Alaphilippe
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9666
    • Liked: 9474
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #276 on: March 17, 2017, 18:17 »
    MSR

    Demare
    Sagan
    Matthews
    Kristoff
    Pozzato
    Kwiatkowski
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2017, 20:36 by search »

    Josedin

    • Domestique
    • Country: es
    • Posts: 599
    • Liked: 48
    • Awards: Autumn Classics Prediction ChampSpring Classics Prediction Champ2016 Official Prediction Game Champ2014 CQ Spring Classics Winner
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #277 on: March 17, 2017, 23:25 »
    MSR

    Sagan
    Degenkolb
    Gaviria
    Demare
    Kristoff
    Roelandts
  • ReplyReply

  • del1962

    • Neo Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 287
    • Liked: 39
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #278 on: March 18, 2017, 07:18 »
    MSR

    Sagan
    Degenkolb
    Demare
    Bouhanni Nacer
    Swift

    27th
    Rowe
  • ReplyReply

  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #279 on: March 18, 2017, 08:42 »
    MSR
    Demare
    Sagan
    Gaviria
    Degenkolb
    Colbrelli
    Valgren
  • ReplyReply

  • Not My Circus

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 1551
    • Liked: 1511
    • Something about Danish cycling I love
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #280 on: March 18, 2017, 08:51 »
    MSR   
    Degenkolb
    Demare
    Colbrelli
    Sagan
    Roelandts
    De Kort

  • ReplyReply

  • Archieboy

    • Road Captain
    • Country: england
    • Posts: 1233
    • Liked: 274
    • Awards: 2014, 2015, 2017 Official Prediction Game Champ2017 Vuelta Prediction Champ2017 Worlds Prediction Champ
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #281 on: March 18, 2017, 09:02 »
    MSR

    Sagan P
    Degenkolb
    Demare
    Kristoff
    Swift
    Clarke S

    Ta
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Road Captain
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 1937
    • Liked: 2030
    • Awards: Giro Prediction Champ 2017
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #282 on: March 18, 2017, 09:17 »
    MSR

    Degenkolb
    Sagan
    Gaviria
    Bouhanni
    Matthews
    Porsev
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 09:27 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Iceman

    • Sunday Rider
    • Country: bg
    • Posts: 16
    • Liked: 17
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #283 on: March 18, 2017, 10:27 »
    Milano- San Remo

    Fernando Gaviria
    Peter Sagan
    Arnaud Demare
    Sonny Colbrelli
    John Degencolb


    Tim Wellens
  • ReplyReply

  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #284 on: March 19, 2017, 15:48 »
    Update 3: Big update!


    4 races in one update - Strade Bianche, Paris-Nice, Tirreno-Adriatico and Milano-Sanremo, and we see some big shifts in the ranking
    At Strade, Armchair scored best by predicting both 1st and 2nd place correctly, and Stybar in top-5, but that's pretty much a given :P
    del1962 just edges out Josedin and JSG for P-N with 45 points, because of the first two unpredictable stages we collectively scored a bit less than expected for a one-week stage race
    For Tirreno, we see higher scores, mainly because many of us had Novo Nordisk in last place for the TTT. Those who tried to be edgy and unique with their pick were punished :D Armchair is top scorer for this race with a massive 73 points, but again Josedin is not far behind and Midge also scored very well
    For MSR Kristoff in 4th and Sagan in 2nd were the most popular picks, but only search combined those two, which was enough to give him the highest score

    Overall, we see Josedin jump to 1st after very consistent performances throughout the races. He now leads Murrjt and DJW by quite a comfortable margin. I was 2nd in the last update but slipped down to 8th place shared with JSG. I should predict with my head instead of my heart from now on. Or not. :P

    Spreadsheet at MediaFire
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Road Captain
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 1937
    • Liked: 2030
    • Awards: Giro Prediction Champ 2017
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #285 on: March 19, 2017, 16:07 »
    The system for Team Time Trials within this game, in relation to the 15 point bonus pick, is a bit of an anomaly.

    The picking of 27th place in normal stages is essentially random: there is a huge proportion of the field who could do not terribly badly but in no way threaten the likely winners.  It is a nuce bonus if you stumble across it, but no-one will ever be kicking themselves, thinking it should have been obvious that a particular guy will be 27th.

    On TTT stages, however, the current practice of choosing last place is often a pick between just two likely candidates.  Those who don't get it right have a large loss to a large proportion of their opponents.

    There will only ever be about 20 options, as opposed to up to 200 candidates for 27th in individual races, but we could stil make the choice more random.  I would suggest something like who will come in a specific spot somewhere between 9th and 13th, or maybe alter it according to the number of team in the race: n/2 (or (n+1)/2) where n= number of teams.

    Or drop the 15 point pick for TTTs.
    Or admit that I am taking the whole thing too seriously...
  • ReplyReply

  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #286 on: March 19, 2017, 17:06 »
    The system for Team Time Trials within this game, in relation to the 15 point bonus pick, is a bit of an anomaly.

    The picking of 27th place in normal stages is essentially random: there is a huge proportion of the field who could do not terribly badly but in no way threaten the likely winners.  It is a nuce bonus if you stumble across it, but no-one will ever be kicking themselves, thinking it should have been obvious that a particular guy will be 27th.

    On TTT stages, however, the current practice of choosing last place is often a pick between just two likely candidates.  Those who don't get it right have a large loss to a large proportion of their opponents.

    There will only ever be about 20 options, as opposed to up to 200 candidates for 27th in individual races, but we could stil make the choice more random.  I would suggest something like who will come in a specific spot somewhere between 9th and 13th, or maybe alter it according to the number of team in the race: n/2 (or (n+1)/2) where n= number of teams.

    Or drop the 15 point pick for TTTs.
    Or admit that I am taking the whole thing too seriously...
    No I agree with you
    Perhaps the easiest thing would be to give 5 points instead of 15 because changing last place to a certain position may cause some confusion. I believe we used to do 17th but changed that because for some races there were less than 17 teams (IIRC)
    We could also do 11th - just outside top 10
    I would like to hear what others would suggest :)
  • ReplyReply

  • del1962

    • Neo Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 287
    • Liked: 39
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #287 on: March 19, 2017, 20:09 »
    Valencia GC

    Froome
    Martin Dan
    Contador
    Valverde
    Thomas

    27th
    Nieve

    Stage 1 - I think sprinters will survive

    Greipel
    Vichot
    Bouhanni
    Sbaragli
    Haas

    27th
    TJ
  • ReplyReply

  • DJW

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 1251
    • Liked: 852
    • Awards: Rio Olympics Prediction Champ
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #288 on: March 19, 2017, 21:54 »
    GC

    Contador
    Dennis
    Yates
    Zakarin
    Martin
    Landa


    Stage 1

    Impey
    Vichot
    Goncalves
    Chernetckii
    Smith D
    Majka
  • ReplyReply

  • Murrjt

    • A Brother
    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 330
    • Liked: 521
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #289 on: March 19, 2017, 22:30 »
    Catalunya

    GC
    Valverde
    Contador
    Martin
    Thomas
    Yates
    Vervaeke


    Stage 1
    Bouhanni
    Greipel
    Cimolai
    Bauhaus
    Molano
    Amador


    idk
  • ReplyReply

  • Josedin

    • Domestique
    • Country: es
    • Posts: 599
    • Liked: 48
    • Awards: Autumn Classics Prediction ChampSpring Classics Prediction Champ2016 Official Prediction Game Champ2014 CQ Spring Classics Winner
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #290 on: March 19, 2017, 23:16 »
    GC Volta

    Froome
    Valverde
    Contador
    D.Martin
    A.Yates
    Howson

    Stage 1

    Bouhanni
    Greipel
    Valverde
    Impey
    Sbaragli
    Ackerman
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Road Captain
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 1937
    • Liked: 2030
    • Awards: Giro Prediction Champ 2017
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #291 on: March 20, 2017, 07:37 »
    VaC GC

    Valverde
    Froome
    Martin
    Van Garderen
    Contador
    Clement

    VaC 1

    Greipel
    Bouhanni
    Valverde
    Martin
    Impey
    De Bie
  • ReplyReply

  • Archieboy

    • Road Captain
    • Country: england
    • Posts: 1233
    • Liked: 274
    • Awards: 2014, 2015, 2017 Official Prediction Game Champ2017 Vuelta Prediction Champ2017 Worlds Prediction Champ
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #292 on: March 20, 2017, 07:55 »
    Catalunya

    GC

    Valverde
    Froome
    Contador
    Van Garderen
    Thomas
    De Marchi

    Stg1

    Greipel
    Bouhanni
    Alaphilippe
    Haas
    Thomas
    Gesink

    Ta

  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31247
    • Liked: 10826
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #293 on: March 20, 2017, 08:31 »
    5 might be best for last in the TTT
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31247
    • Liked: 10826
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #294 on: March 20, 2017, 08:37 »
    GC Catalunya

    Valverde
    Froome
    Contador
    Dennis
    Martin Dan aka cousin Dan
    Van Garderen

    Stage 1
    Rojas
    Impey
    Bilbao
    Haas
    Bol
    Valverde
  • ReplyReply

  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #295 on: March 20, 2017, 09:05 »
    GC
    Contador
    Valverde
    Thomas
    Hermans
    Sanchez S
    Pantano

    Stage 1
    Greipel
    Bouhanni
    Cimolai
    Impey
    Vichot
    Contador
  • ReplyReply

  • Not My Circus

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 1551
    • Liked: 1511
    • Something about Danish cycling I love
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #296 on: March 20, 2017, 09:08 »
    Volta C GC
    Valverde
    Contador
    Froome
    Martin D
    van Garderen
    Hansen J

    Volta Cat St 1
    Hmmm ow will the stage be played, do the sprinters make it or not? On balance, given what's coming tmrw, I think they will so...
    Bouhanni
    Greipel
    Cimolai
    Sbaragli
    Impey
    Fuglsang

  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9666
    • Liked: 9474
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #297 on: March 20, 2017, 11:08 »
    Catalunya GC

    Valverde
    Martin
    Contador
    Yates A
    Froome
    Gasparotto


    Catalunya Stage 1

    Vichot
    Paterski
    Niemiec
    Morton
    Gasparotto
    Zakarin
  • ReplyReply

  • Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8135
    • Liked: 3900
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #298 on: March 20, 2017, 17:14 »
    For tomorrow's TTT we will predict last place but only 5 points can be scored instead of 15


    Cat TTT
    Movistar
    BMC
    Orica
    Sky
    Trek
    Funvic Funksters
  • ReplyReply

  • Murrjt

    • A Brother
    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 330
    • Liked: 521
    Re: Official Prediction Game 2017
    « Reply #299 on: March 20, 2017, 17:21 »
    Stage 2
    BMC
    Movistar
    Orica
    Sky
    Trek
    Funvic

  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top