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Re: Paris - Nice 2017
« Reply #60 on: March 08, 2017, 18:52 »
Climbing Times:

1      #bmc PORTE Richie       7:38.04
2      #trek CONTADOR Alberto       7:42.06
3      #sunweb ARNDT Nikias       7:44.56
4      #katusha ZAKARIN Ilnur       7:45.48
5      #cofidis EDET Nicolas       7:50.27
6      #quickstep ALAPHILIPPE Julian       7:50.76
7      #lotto GALLOPIN Tony       7:54.90
8      #bahrain IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Jon       7:55.02
9      #cannondale FORMOLO Davide       7:55.26
10      #quickstep MARTIN Daniel       7:57.11
11      #quickstep DE LA CRUZ David       7:57.52
12      #sunweb OOMEN Sam       7:58.79
13      #cannondale VILLELLA Davide       8:01.51
14      #movistar SOLER Marc       8:03.70
15      #movistar IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka       8:03.79
16      #sky HENAO MONTOYA Sergio       8:04.87
17      #lotto DE GENDT Thomas       8:06.39
18      #bora KONRAD Patrick       8:07.06
19      #fdj MOLARD Rudy       8:09.51
20      #direct CALMEJANE Lilian       8:09.89
            
36      #orica YATES Simon      8:19.64
            
48      #sunweb MATTHEWS Michael      8:26.67
            
51      #katusha MARTIN Tony      8:28.56
            
117      #sunweb BARGUIL Warren      9:16.56

(Villella came out in 1st with a 7'01, using ASO's times, but I just amended it by a minute, as Pauwels time - who started a minute after him - didn't show up at all. I guess there was some confusion).

No idea what's up there with Arndt - or Barguil, on the other side of the table
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    Murrjt

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #61 on: March 08, 2017, 19:01 »
    Barguil was misdirected by a policeman which I guess was in that section.
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #62 on: March 08, 2017, 19:02 »
    well, I did a lot of calculations there, only to find out that ASO published all the climbing times in the very same PDF I was working with, but a couple of pages later :fp

    ~pdf http://matsport.fr/resultat/2017/PNC/pdf/Etape_04/_PNC_20170308_0400_Press_Release.pdf (page 17f)

    (and just scrapped both Villella and Arndt btw)
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #63 on: March 08, 2017, 23:39 »
    The latter. He needs 3 seconds on Zakarin, 11 seconds on Martin, 26 on Henao and 1:31 on Alaphilippe. If he manages to pass two of them and he's third. I'd say 26 seconds on Henao and especially 1:31 on Alaphilippe is pretty much impossible, unless they implode. To keep his GC hopes alive, he should have gained time on Alaphilippe and gained more on Henao.

    Of course, I don't really care about a podium. I'd prefer to see him win a stage, but he seems to be terrible at winning (non-MTT) stages the last few years :S

    I agree I dont think 1.31 on Alaphilippe is doable - but I think 2nd is fairly realistic.   I dont see Henao as unassailable though ...
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #64 on: March 09, 2017, 06:53 »
    Hell  of a ride by Alaphillipe, he really emptied the tank there. Porte's climbing time was quite ominus though. that shows real climbing form
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #65 on: March 09, 2017, 07:52 »
    I agree I dont think 1.31 on Alaphilippe is doable - but I think 2nd is fairly realistic.  I dont see Henao as unassailable though ...

     Especially, looking at the respective climbing times for Mont Brouilly.
    Henao looks more vulnerable than Zakarin or Martin, but has a bit more of a buffer.
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    just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #66 on: March 09, 2017, 08:12 »
    Especially, looking at the respective climbing times for Mont Brouilly.
    Henao looks more vulnerable than Zakarin or Martin, but has a bit more of a buffer.

    agree
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    t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #67 on: March 09, 2017, 09:35 »
    Is this #trek Alberto's fan club thread now? In that case, why all this talk about a podium?  :P
    If Contador designed the podiums they would have only one step. If there is one rider unlikely to make the podium (as in position 2 and 3) it is Contador. The only difference an extra minute or two behind before the mountain stages seem to make for him, is if the attacks are going to be a little bit risky or complete madness, never-gonna-make-it style!

    He's gonna end 1st or 4th. The mistakes of last year can not and will not be repeated!  :D

    PS: the final climb to Fayence is designed by Yves-St-Laurent and Philippe Starck especially for #quickstep Alaphilippe but it's going to be done twice with some hill country in between. I wouldn't be surprised if Alberto attacks first time up to Fayence or even earlier. He had a pretty good ride on a similar stage to Guardigrele in the T-A a few years back. ;)
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #68 on: March 09, 2017, 17:39 »


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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #69 on: March 09, 2017, 19:21 »
    I saw this live on television, and can't double check if my impressions are right but: is it correct that Greipel won this more or less on his own - without using the #lotto train at all?

    While (for contrast, flop of the day) #katusha Kristoff put Tony Martin in front with 10 km to go only to completely derail the red train in the chaotic downhill/uphill run-in to the sprint?

    If you agree, that this is what happened, it is a #lotto Greipel display of tactical masterclass. It maybe sounds simple - but it looked like they had called the chaotic sprint from reckon and decided the better way to handle this was for Greipel to do it alone. Perfect positioning and a pure class victory there.
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  • « Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 20:32 by t-72 »

    t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #70 on: March 09, 2017, 22:19 »
    Ok, tomorrow is the stage I have been waiting for. I was hoping for #fdj Odd Christian Eiking to have a go on the Chemin de termes but as he was dropped from the team following illness earlier this season that is not to happen.

    This stage is 193 km long and it starts of with a 1st category climb where the break of the day will most likely get a good gap. The finale includes 2 rounds on a circuit including the "Col de Bourrigale" (as far as I can remember this is a crossroads in the middle of the woods somewhere, been past there without noticing it at all).

    The circuit includes the steep climb up the Chemin de Termes to Fayence, which will be the finishing stretch. Dubbed Mur de FAyence by race organisers, Paris-Nice have been up here a few times before. This time "Mur" is maybe right, as it ends with a ZIGZAG of tight turns where Tom Jelte Slagter slipped and #ag2r Betancur took stage win, leading to overall victory, in 2014.

    It is also the same finish as the stage where Alberto Contador cracked and lost the race, in 2009.

    As indicated earlier, this stage could be ambush country for Contador trying to regain time on Alaphilippe, but that would probably require an early attack - something he is capable of - about right when TV gets live pictures on the "Col de Bourrigalle".  Now that's also written on the P-N website in the updated stage introduction text so there is hardly an element of surprise involved. About the terrain I have been cycling there two times and the impression is that the inclinometer on my Garmin seemed to be stuck on 7.6 % almost all the time. I can't remember the details, but many of the roads (not all) have an excellent grippy kind of surfacing that can serve well for some ballsy descents.

    If there is a compact bunch all the way to the base of the Chemin de Termes 2nd time - it is advantage #quickstep Alaphilippe. The
    only one in the peloton I can see beating him on that kind of terrain would be ...  #quickstep Dan Martin?   :P More seriously - #sunweb Michael Matthews seem to be up to something with his climbing of late. #bmc Richie Porte may be allowed to go where Contador isn't and can also take the stage although his remaining objective is more probably saturday's MTF.
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  • « Last Edit: March 11, 2017, 14:01 by LukasCPH »

    jimmythecuckoo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #71 on: March 10, 2017, 09:34 »
    I thought Dylan had that one  #jumbo  #jumbo  #jumbo ... just couldn't hold on.

    I think that shows the experience the Gorillia has  #lotto he used his riders up early but just hung around near the front before finding clean air in the final straight.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #72 on: March 10, 2017, 16:39 »


    well that was all a bit meh
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #73 on: March 11, 2017, 01:02 »
    yeah I thought it was going to be very exciting ... but had already basically fizzled out before live pictures

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    just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #75 on: March 11, 2017, 16:45 »


    A bit more interesting than the race between the sea´s

    Pantano was very strong been a long time Contador has had any help like that. Porte was always going to be let loose, and will be pretty happy Henao doing his best to loose the race
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #76 on: March 11, 2017, 17:14 »


    A bit more interesting than the race between the sea´s

    Pantano was very strong been a long time Contador has had any help like that. Porte was always going to be let loose, and will be pretty happy Henao doing his best to loose the race

    Not sure I agree with that.
    Far more attacking animation, earlier on the Terminillio.
    Just that the final km here was very dramatic and as I pondered earlier, I thought Henao might struggle.

    Porte? A bit hard to tell, but he did look to climb that with more ease than the rest.
    If only he didn't spend so much time impersonating Andy Schleck looking for brother Frank.

     As it stands, Henao has half a minute and that usually is enough, but the podium order is still all to play for.
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #77 on: March 11, 2017, 19:06 »
    An enjoyable stage. Martin rode steadily and it would be nice to see him get a podium. Contador is still such a class rider, I love watching him ride. Porte...welll yes it was impressive but for a man of his aspiration it will never be any good unless he can learn to join the dots over the course of a GT.
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #78 on: March 11, 2017, 19:39 »
    An enjoyable stage. Martin rode steadily and it would be nice to see him get a podium.

    yeah, he should have that in the bag I guess, sitting half a minute ahead of the guy in 4th. Of course, tomorrow's stage has the potential to change gc a bit, but unlikely that much to his disadvantage I guess.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #79 on: March 11, 2017, 21:30 »
    1. Henao
    2. Martin
    3. Contador
    4. Izagirre
    -------------

    Message to Alberto: this would be completely unacceptable as final GC results!

     :D
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #80 on: March 11, 2017, 21:35 »
    A more serious comment: Do the results so far indicate that #quickstep Alaphilippe doesn't seem to have the ability for restitution necessary to win WT stage races? He's still young, it might come later - but right now, he seems to fade a little bit more every day in the P-N.

    Yes or no?  :slow
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #81 on: March 11, 2017, 23:29 »
    A more serious comment: Do the results so far indicate that #quickstep Alaphilippe doesn't seem to have the ability for restitution necessary to win WT stage races? He's still young, it might come later - but right now, he seems to fade a little bit more every day in the P-N.

    Yes or no?  :slow


    I'm going to say no. I just think he will always lack the necessary stamina. He emptied himself in the TT but even so he ended up clinging on the following day only to be completely shelled the day after. Something, I don't know what, would have to change
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #82 on: March 12, 2017, 00:54 »
    mmh, personally I would think that it has more to do with harder nature of stages. And don't forget that it was a super tough week with the windy and rainy very selective first couple of stages. It's the first time ever he is going for gc in a race like this - considering that, he is doing pretty well.

    And his main focus are the Ardennes classics for the moment which are still over a month away. I'm pretty sure he'll win WT stage races sooner or later. Even Grand Tours
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #83 on: March 12, 2017, 07:23 »

    I'm going to say no. I just think he will always lack the necessary stamina. He emptied himself in the TT but even so he ended up clinging on the following day only to be completely shelled the day after. Something, I don't know what, would have to change

    I don't quite follow you on "stamina": Alaphilippe is already one of the best in long one day races (Olympic games for example). I am looking forward to seeing him in this year's L-B-L and Lombardia. If he is a serious competitor in those kind of races there is nothing wrong with "stamina" but if he can't repeat a good performance on a course 2/3 that length day after day: restitution (ability to restore performance level after effort)  is the problem?

    but then I am no native English speaker, maybe there is something lost in translation?
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #84 on: March 12, 2017, 07:33 »
    I think Stamina should read recovery

    and that comes with time, generally speaking
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #85 on: March 12, 2017, 07:34 »
    PS Today will go 1 or 2 ways

    be super exciting or boring as bat sh*t
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #86 on: March 12, 2017, 07:40 »
    I don't quite follow you on "stamina": Alaphilippe is already one of the best in long one day races (Olympic games for example). I am looking forward to seeing him in this year's L-B-L and Lombardia. If he is a serious competitor in those kind of races there is nothing wrong with "stamina" but if he can't repeat a good performance on a course 2/3 that length day after day: restitution (ability to restore performance level after effort)  is the problem?

    but then I am no native English speaker, maybe there is something lost in translation?

    Perhaps a poor choice of words on my part but you've worked out what I mean. I'mm referring to his stamina on a day by day basis. I thnk he'll always be able to pull out a good performance but not to back it up effectively. His time trial was brilliant but he looks like he's been on his knees since.

    Mind you I said wiggins could win a week race but never a GT and was proved wrong there. (or was I!)  :angel
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #87 on: March 12, 2017, 09:24 »
    I think Stamina should read recovery

    and that comes with time, generally speaking
    Agreed. I suppose the interesting follow up question is whether time is a measure of physiological development or a measure of experience in terms of the correct individualised preparation for the particular race type - probably a bit of both. He might be the type to improve much faster at Sky.
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #88 on: March 12, 2017, 09:51 »
    Agreed. I suppose the interesting follow up question is whether time is a measure of physiological development or a measure of experience in terms of the correct individualised preparation for the particular race type - probably a bit of both. He might be the type to improve much faster at Sky.

    You might be right about Sky but I'd be reluctant to see such a bright and talented racer just put in harness just for the service of others. Lot's of good racers are disappearing into obscurity there. It always reminds me of the opening to Les Miserables

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  • Flo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #89 on: March 12, 2017, 12:34 »
    PS Today will go 1 or 2 ways

    be super exciting or boring as bat sh*t
    Deja vu time for me I think
    Berto goes on Peille, Sky chase him down probably helped by QS. Berto tries again on Eze. In the end nothing changes :P
    #quickstep if they were smart would work with Berto as Cousin Dan should outsprint Berto 10 times out of 10 and that would mean they can win the race
    But not counting on it

    I hope Mr Tony "anything for a ride with Sky" Gallopin will be nowhere near the action :shh
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