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Flo

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Paris - Nice 2017
« on: February 27, 2017, 18:51 »
Paris - Nice || 5 - 12 March 2017 :web




75th edition of the Race to the Sun
  :onfire1 :onfire1

Recent History
2016 | THOMAS Geraint
2015 | PORTE Richie
2014 | BETANCUR Carlos
2013 | PORTE Richie
2012 | WIGGINS Bradley
2011 | MARTIN Tony
2010 | CONTADOR Alberto
2009 | SANCHEZ Luis Leon
2008 | REBELLIN Davide
2007 | CONTADOR Alberto

Top-10 2016
1.THOMAS Geraint27:26:40
2.CONTADOR Alberto0:04
3.PORTE Richie0:12
4.ZAKARIN Ilnur0:20
5.IZAGIRRE Ion0:37
6.HENAO Sergio Luis0:44
7.YATES Simon"
8.GALLOPIN Tony0:51
9.BARDET Romain1:00
10.COSTA Rui1:07

A summary of last year's most exciting stage

And the stage in full ;)


The Parcours

Stage 1
Bois-d'Arcy / Bois-d'Arcy
 


A relatively boring flat stage with a potentially tricky finish.

Stage 2
Rochefort-en-Yvelines / Amilly   



Another boring flat stage, this time with a straightforward finish.

Stage 3
Chablis / Chalon-sur-Saône



More flat roads.

Stage 4
Beaujeu / Mont Brouilly



Probably the first interesting stage and a very important one for the final GC, an ITT with the finish on Mont Brouilly, as an apology for last year's debacle when the stage to Mont Brouilly was cancelled due to snow. Mont Brouilly is 3km at 7.7%, but it is a very irregular climb which alternates flat sections with extremely steep ones. This is the profile provided last year:

Interestingly, the stats are a bit different, but in last year's route details the climb is also listed as 3km at 7.7%.
I wonder what TT set-up the riders will use. Will someone dare to go for a bike switch or will we see the riders on road bikes with TT bars? I remember that at last year's Vuelta al Pais Vasco ITT, Magnus Bäckstedt criticized Nairo Quintana's bike switch, saying that you'd need at least 10km of flat to have a net gain. Well, how interesting that there are just over 10 flat kilometers before the climb :D

Stage 5
Quincié-en-Beaujolais / Bourg-de-Péage



Lots of up and down in the first part of the stage but still likely to end in a sprint.

Stage 6
Aubagne / Fayence



A very demanding stage, with the Col de l'Espigoulier (8.9km/5.6%) right after the start and then at the end a combination of the 1st-category Col de Bourigaille with a short, steep finish in Fayence. As if this wasn't demanding enough on it's own, the organizers decided this should be a circuit, so we have two sides of the Bourigaille included (first time 5.5km/6.1%, second time 8.1km/5.9%) and the riders will pass the finish twice. The parcours definitely invites attacks from further out from those who lost time in the ITT, but with two tough days to come, the GC favorites might let it come down to an explosive battle up the final hill (1.3km/9.8%). I think there is a high chance the victory will go to someone from the break.

Stage 7
Nice / Col de la Couillole




The queen stage of this year's race which will likely decide the outcome. In a very bold move, the organizers included the Col de la Couillole, the highest point ever for Paris-Nice, but remembering last year's race we can't be sure it will actually be climbed. For the sake of this race preview, let's assume the weather gods behave and we will see a big battle. Couillole is extremely tough, especially for this time of the year, with 15.7km at 7.1%, but the combination with the Col Saint-Martin (7.5km/7.2%) makes it truly epic. Likely, we will see the GC favorites battle for the stage and the yellow jersey.

Stage 8
Nice / Nice




After stage 7, the general classification will have been more or less sorted out, but this final stage, the classic Col d'Eze stage, still presents one last opportunity for those who dare to take a risk. Last year, we saw Alberto Contador attack with over 50km to go on the Côte de Peille (6.5km/6.9%) to find 15 seconds to claim the yellow jersey. He knows this stage like no other, he managed to win this stage and the GC with an attack from far out in 2007. He was ultimately unsuccessful last year but it was a battle all the way to the line. Hopefully, we'll witness another thriller this year.

The Overall Contenders

The main favorites for the overall victory are Alberto Contador and Richie Porte, 2nd and 3rd on GC in 2016. Both have had a good start to the season, both have declared they are coming to win, both are known for their skill in one-week stage races, both have a great TT in their legs, especially on hilly terrain and both are 2-time winners of the race! The main difference is probably that Porte has had a long break since his start of the season in Australia, building form, whereas Contador started his season later but completed both the Vuelta a Andalucia and the Abu Dhabi Tour recently. I honestly can't say which of the two is more likely to win, it could go either way.

Two other favorites are Ilnur Zakarin and Alejandro Valverde, they are both decent TTers and a good climbers, but I'd have to put them one step below Contador and Porte. However, if those are watching each other, these two have a good chance to walk away with the prize.
Another good allrounder on the startlist is Ion Izagirre, but his climbing skills aren't likely to be good enough to win the race.

Then we have a few riders who will find themselves on the back foot after the ITT, Romain Bardet, Simon Yates, Warren Barguil, Daniel Martin and David de la Cruz for QuickStep, and most of what Cannondale is bringing. QS and Cannondale also bring Julian Alaphilippe and Andrew Talansky, who can, at times, ride a decent TT and climb well, but I feel the race is too tough for Alaphilippe and I never expect anything at all from Talansky because he usually disappoints.

The Sprinters

The sprinters' lineup looks very tasty, we have several big names at the start, most notably Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, Arnaud Démare and Nacer Bouhanni, but also Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Dylan Groenewegen, Michael Matthews, Sonny Colbrelli and Bryan Coquard.

Others to keep an eye on are Ben Swift, Sam Bennett, Dan McLay, Magnus Cort Nielsen, Niccoló Bonifazio, Andrea Guardini and Danny van Poppel.

The full startlist can be found here


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  • « Last Edit: February 28, 2017, 15:50 by Flo »
    RIP Keith

    Flo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #1 on: February 27, 2017, 21:53 »
    I missed Kruijswijk on the startlist :shh
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #2 on: February 28, 2017, 07:35 »
    I missed Kruijswijk on the startlist :shh

    it is ok he is missing all of 2016 form so far this year anyway
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #4 on: February 28, 2017, 07:41 »
    it is ok he is missing all of 2016 form so far this year anyway

    Kruijswijk didn't have any major results last year either, and he is doing the same kind of preparation for the Giro again.

    so yeah, he will attack here and there I guess, but there's not too much to expect, result-wise
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    pastronef

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #5 on: February 28, 2017, 09:08 »
    Flo you forgot Poels (and Henao)  :P
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #6 on: February 28, 2017, 14:17 »


    Lotto´s kit for the race
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  • Flo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #7 on: February 28, 2017, 14:25 »
    Flo you forgot Poels (and Henao)  :P
    You're right I wanted to include Henao in the list of riders that'll lose a lot of time in the TT :)
    Poels did not impress me at all in Andalucia, he had 2 top riders working for him and he was still sh*t
    Of course he is a Sky rider so could go from sh*t to hit in 2 weeks.
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  • Flo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #8 on: February 28, 2017, 14:26 »


    Lotto´s kit for the race
    Again that ugly grey
    What is the reason they wear that at Paris-Nice? It was the same last year
    Brings back bad memories :angry
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #9 on: February 28, 2017, 15:33 »
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #10 on: February 28, 2017, 18:34 »
    Again that ugly grey
    What is the reason they wear that at Paris-Nice? It was the same last year
    Brings back bad memories :angry
    That's not grey, that's a dark turquoise blue. :P

    They do it to promote FixALL, one of Soudal's products. Though I can't tell you why they do it at Paris-Nice and not another race.
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    RIP Keith

    pastronef

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #11 on: February 28, 2017, 19:47 »
    You're right I wanted to include Henao in the list of riders that'll lose a lot of time in the TT :)
    Poels did not impress me at all in Andalucia, he had 2 top riders working for him and he was still sh*t
    Of course he is a Sky rider so could go from sh*t to hit in 2 weeks.

    he was 4th in GC and went better in the TT
    anyway
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #12 on: February 28, 2017, 22:01 »

    Stage 8 Nice / Nice
    After stage 7, the general classification will have been more or less sorted out, but this final stage, the classic Col d'Eze stage...

    (emphasis is mine)

    I really agree this is a classic stage - almost every year I have watched it it has been a thrill! this year, as often before - it will feature #sky Geraint Thomas chasing hard downhill. I don't know how he'll make it into there, some confusion on the T-A route perhaps - I just can picture this stage without a Geraint Thomas fall.  :)

    (I should have inserted a poll here ... how close to the finish line before he falls?)

    Anyway - if Thomas can't fall then it will be #bmc Richie Porte who has to take it. They tend to fall in the same races and on this type of parcours (like - this stage 2015 or 14, can't remember exactly which one - and the Rio Olympics RR) If I recall correctly it is the Chateauneuf descent that has been the slaughterhouse of the (then) team Sky downhill skills. It is in this year's edition but it comes earlier in the race than it used to. A more mellow descent, Cotê de Peille is the second-last descent in this edition. They will go all the way down to Nice (more or less) and then back up the Col d'Eze via La Condamine (the backside, if anywhere close to Europe's recreational real-estate epicenter can be termed backside). The top is then actually a bit higher up compared to the TT route, but they will come down to the bridge at Eze and take the classic descent back into town.

    If #ag2r Romain Bardet is actually interested in winning, the route suits him perfectly - but I seem to remember this race is training for his July antics and no big target for him in itself.
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #13 on: March 01, 2017, 07:06 »
    Paris-Nice...we need a photo of this man....



    Seven times champion., that is quite some record. Chapeau to King Kelly
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    jimmythecuckoo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #14 on: March 01, 2017, 09:38 »
    This is a great race and a perfect opener to the stage races proper after the classics this past weekend.

    As a small aside, this is the key race to start the season for my Wife. She has had the TV to herself all winter (apart from key 6 day and cross events) to watch tv chefs and reality shows and this will get her back in the flow of having to watch cycling every night for a week.

    Really important for her to get back into the flow and daily routine of a decent stage race.

    The downside is that by the end of the race she is already online booking a holiday to one of the lovely stage towns we see en route.

    I swear that one year I will be camping on the runway at Mende for two weeks in the summer.
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  • The fens are just West West Flanders really...

    LukasCPH

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #15 on: March 01, 2017, 12:25 »
    This is a great race and a perfect opener to the stage races proper after the classics this past weekend.

    As a small aside, this is the key race to start the season for my Wife. She has had the TV to herself all winter (apart from key 6 day and cross events) to watch tv chefs and reality shows and this will get her back in the flow of having to watch cycling every night for a week.

    Really important for her to get back into the flow and daily routine of a decent stage race.

    The downside is that by the end of the race she is already online booking a holiday to one of the lovely stage towns we see en route.

    I swear that one year I will be camping on the runway at Mende for two weeks in the summer.
    Post of the year material. :lol
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #16 on: March 01, 2017, 12:26 »
    Paris-Nice...we need a photo of this man....



    Seven times champion., that is quite some record. Chapeau to King Kelly
    Aye!
    Maybe his *ie nephew from Brummy will step up this year?[1]
     1. Dan Martin is Sean Kelly's nephew or somesuch, right?
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #17 on: March 01, 2017, 12:41 »
    Aye!
    Maybe his *ie nephew from Brummy will step up this year?[1]
     1. Dan Martin is Sean Kelly's nephew or somesuch, right?

    unless Kelly and Roche are brother no  ;)
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #18 on: March 01, 2017, 12:44 »
    unöless Kelly and Roche are brother no  ;)
    Ah, so I got that the wrong way around, and Dan "Bad Teeth" Martin is Nico's cousin?

    Damn those Irish and their complicated family relations! :D
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #19 on: March 01, 2017, 13:44 »
    Ah, so I got that the wrong way around, and Dan "Bad Teeth" Martin is Nico's cousin?

    Damn those Irish and their complicated family relations! :D

    Dan Martin used to go to the primary school next door to the secondary school I was at...albeit some years after I'd left
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #20 on: March 01, 2017, 13:57 »
    Looks like Buchmann has been given leader status for this along with Konrad, for Bora.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #21 on: March 01, 2017, 20:27 »
    Dan Martin used to go to the primary school next door to the secondary school I was at...albeit some years after I'd left

    Are you originally a Tammy then?
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  • Yellow Peril

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #22 on: March 01, 2017, 20:46 »
    Are you originally a Tammy then?



    I must confess I am
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #26 on: March 05, 2017, 09:51 »
    today's finish, mapped by @raffilpt



    so it's basically ~500m at 10% average, then 1300m flat to the line. Should be enough to shake up the sprint trains - or even a successful attack maybe
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #27 on: March 05, 2017, 12:01 »
    I am on google earth checking out the route. I have seen reports on high winds and rain and talk about bordures but the route is not very exposed to winds in general, following the forested areas more than open fields in between them. If I understood it right, there's a headwind to the finish, so it will be hard to say in front anyway. This is the catch with loop-courses on a windy day. A straightline course (and crosswinds)  would have dished it up more for the teams who are strong in the crosswinds. Now, this one looks more like one for the puncheurs and uphill finishers. The finish looks like Valkenburg...

    I guess that means #sunweb Matthews again?

    Good alternatives:
    #trek Degenkolb
    #bahrain Gasparotto
    #orica Albasini and Gerrans? (if they still had Matthews they could blanket the podium...)
    #quickstep Gilbert
    #sky Henao
    #astana Valgren
    #uae Swift
    #directenergie Coquard

    Outsiders
    #cannondale Villela
    #katusha Bystrøm

    EDIT: I don't think I will follow this live (X-C skiing 50 km world championship may be prioritized) so this message may be followed by some hours complete radio silence!
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #28 on: March 05, 2017, 16:39 »
    OK, that became more crosswind influenced than I thought it would.
    I'll live with not having Demare in my selection but Alaphilippe should have been there  :S. He fits the bill as a guy with a good punch for the finish. :angry

    For the finish, I predicted something Cauberg-like and that seemed to stick as the group did not have enough strength to roll back Alaphilippe's attack.

    #quickstep Alaphilippe for the GC now?






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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2017
    « Reply #29 on: March 05, 2017, 16:57 »
     Came home from Sunday lunch to find carnage.
    Boring, that certainly was not. Be tough for any of the lumpy stuff to be beat that for flat out entertainment.
    Now I see that Bardet has be DQF'd, presumably for the huge amount of moto assist he got, after his crash.
    That's my Velogames team, toast.
    Reckon Little Richie is still a threat to the likes of Alaphilippe and Henao.
    Bertie, not so much. Seems he was dropped on that drag at the finish.

    Now, off to Italy.
    Saving the extra large helping of Belgian cobbles for tomorrow. :)
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