collapse


DJW

  • Road Captain
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 1249
  • Liked: 849
  • Awards: Reigning Vuelta Prediction ChampRio Olympic Games Prediction Champ
Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
« on: May 06, 2017, 16:50 »
Stage 4  »  Cefalù › Etna  (181k)


The first MTF and potential for the first major GT shake-up, although it remains to be seen whether the main contenders will want to show their hands so early, and thus be forced into defending the jersey for close to three weeks.

The other scenario sees a large break of decent climbers and puncheurs from stage-hunting teams go away early an be whittled down over the first climb (topping out around 90k from the finish) before a solo rider takes the win, and potentially #pink.

The final climb is around 7.5% a lot of the way up, with steeper sections lower down and a lower gradients near the top (as well as a slight flattening out). That means that, as long as the pace isn't too hot) any one of a few second-tier climbers or riders from the break could take the win.



VeloNews on the significance on the stage[1]:

Quote
Although the 2017 Giro’s final week is piled high with major climbs, it seems the eventual winner must finish within about a minute of the victor on Mount Etna. All three prior examples bear this out.

Top favorites Nairo Quintana (Movistar) and Vincenzo Nibali (Bahrain-Merida) might not win stage 4. Perhaps they won’t want to defend the jersey so early in the race, either.

No matter who claims the day’s honors, any legitimate team leader should be near the front on the first summit finish. If a GC hopeful such as Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) or Bauke Mollema (Trek-Segafredo) loses more than a minute on Etna, they might consider hitting the panic button and asking their team PR person to distribute the “He’s going for stage wins” press release. Aspiring climbers who come to the bottom of the final climb with the lead group might have an opportunity to shine if the overall contenders choose to ride defensively and mark each other’s moves.
Climbing the Volcano:





Favourites:
:* :* :* :* :*

Nairo Quintana

Undoubtedly the best climber, but will he be motivated to win today or just mark the moves?


:* :* :* :*

Adam Yates

Wasn't completely destroyed by Quintana, either in T-A or last year's Tour, which I guess makes him a strong contender. Has shown he also has a strong kick at the end of a hard stage (when not being taken out by rogue flammes).


Thibaut Pinot

Allez Thibaut!


Mikel Landa

Still unsure if this is a continuation of the 2016 model or an upgrade on the 2015 version. Could be allowed off the leash under the assumption that others will take time on him in the TTs.


:* :* :*

Steven Kruijswijk

Guy deserves a break.


Geraint Thomas

Has found super climbing legs from somewhere the past couple of years.


Ilnur Zakarin

Pretty average form this year, but 100% Zaka could win at a canter.


:* :*

Sergey Firsanov

A late break, maybe?


Rui Costa

Very good early season form has tailed off a little, but could kick to win if the pace isn't too hot on the way up.


:*

Vincenzo Nibali

Yeah, he's Sicilian and yeah, he's won the Giro twice and yeah, he won the Tour of Croatia the other week but I don't really see him having the legs any more to beat the rest (certainly not this early in the race).


Wildcard: Anyone from the break.




Potential BOTD: SIUTSOU Kanstantsin #bahrain , GENIEZ Alexandre #ag2r , TIRALONGO Paolo #astana , CICCONE Giulio #bardiani , ALBANESE Vincenzo #bardiani , KONRAD Patrick #bora , MONFORT Maxime #lotto , CONTI Valerio #uae , KOSHEVOY Ilia  #wilier , FRAILE Omar #didata , FOLIFOROV Alexander #gazprom , ROSSSCHARTNER Felix #ccc , SENNI Manuel #bmc
 1. http://www.velonews.com/2017/05/giro-ditalia/studying-giro-mount-etna-affects-gc-race_437366
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 10:09 by just some guy, Reason: calendar »

    DJW

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 1249
    • Liked: 849
    • Awards: Reigning Vuelta Prediction ChampRio Olympic Games Prediction Champ
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #1 on: May 06, 2017, 16:51 »
    The Jerseys

     #pink  Fernando Gaviria #quickstep

    Quickstep planned and executed their trap well on Stage 3 to take the stage and overall lead with their young Colombian sprinter. Jungels is well-placed at 13" to take over if the pace isn't too hot, although I rather suspect that the more likely scenario is that #pink will go to a stage winner from the 26 riders on 23".


     #red Andre Greipel #lotto

    The Gorilla will wear the Maglia Ciclamino on Stage 4 and can be fairly certain that he will retain it until Stage 5, unless the Tickler is back in the break and hoovering up the points.


     #blue Daniel Teklehaimanot #didata

    However he might be more concerned with defending his KOM jersey, which he will lose unless he is take the Cat 2 climb, as the Etna ascent will give 35 points to the stage winner.


     #white Fernando Gaviria #quickstep

    As with the GC, Gaviria looks likely to hand over to his lead to Jungels, or if the Luxembourger is unable to finish with the main contenders then a likely candidate would be #orica Adam Yates.


    Previous stage:

  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 07, 2017, 19:29 by DJW »

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #2 on: May 07, 2017, 18:38 »
    not the greatest start to a GT, yet it was all right, beautiful country to look at stages 1 and 3 were exciting last 20 km is with stage 2 being the snooze fest, all ready for the explosive stage 4

  • ReplyReply
  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Flo

    • #1 Alberto Contador fangirl
    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 8105
    • Liked: 3869
    • Awards: 2017 TDF Prediction ChampKeithJamesMC award 2016Velorooms Trivia Monday Quiz Champion 2015/2016Dish of the Year 2015Member of the year 2015Fan of the year 20152015 Giro Quiz League - 3rd placeNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Fan of the year 2013Best fanboy/girl 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #3 on: May 07, 2017, 19:09 »
    I was in Cefalu some years ago, beautiful town, climbing the rock was pretty heavy though :P

    And of course Etna, great memories from 2011 <3 did not like seeing Rujano as the stage winner in the Giro's official graphic after today's stage

    Berto  :shy Michele  :niceday Rujano  :dizzy
  • ReplyReply
  • RIP Keith

    t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #4 on: May 07, 2017, 21:44 »
    Quick-step spent a lot of energy in the crosswinds today, maybe because they have misunderstood the concept of rest days. It's 3 days over three weeks, not three days all three weeks, Davide!  :P

    https://twitter.com/Davide_Marti93/status/861298882772389888
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #5 on: May 07, 2017, 22:03 »
    not the greatest start to a GT, yet it was all right, beautiful country to look at stages 1 and 3 were exciting last 20 km is with stage 2 being the snooze fest, all ready for the explosive stage 4

    I was up the Etna once as a teenager - and unlike the racers on tuesday I went all the way up to the top of the (then-defunct) ski area,  that's a whole lot further, I think we turned back at about 2800-2900 meters.   This might have an effect on my impression, but my impression clearly is that unlike the mountain, the climb is not that explosive, the gradient sort of never gets really steep on those lower slopes -  its more like a long slog.

    Disclaimer: there are two roads up to the finish area[1] and I have no idea which one I went up back then :)
     1. (why oh why would you build two roads up into the lunar wasteland up there...but but) 
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #6 on: May 08, 2017, 06:38 »
    I was up the Etna once as a teenager - and unlike the racers on tuesday I went all the way up to the top of the (then-defunct) ski area,  that's a whole lot further, I think we turned back at about 2800-2900 meters.   This might have an effect on my impression, but my impression clearly is that unlike the mountain, the climb is not that explosive, the gradient sort of never gets really steep on those lower slopes -  its more like a long slog.

    Disclaimer: there are two roads up to the finish area[1] and I have no idea which one I went up back then :)
     1. (why oh why would you build two roads up into the lunar wasteland up there...but but) 

    The Explosive thing is a gag being a volcano   ;)
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #7 on: May 08, 2017, 07:12 »
    Should also add How peeed with #orica be Ewan should have done a whole lot better
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012

    t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #9 on: May 09, 2017, 05:18 »
    https://twitter.com/Velorooms/status/861559969421950976

    I think Nibali has been signaling quite strongly that he would appreciate the maglia rosa for his hometown visit. This is probably just fine for Quintana And Movistar as long as the time difference is negligible. No point for them to defend the jersey from this early and also an advantage in the tactical game not showing his hand yet.

    That should point to Nibali first and Quintana second place finish. However there are so many strong riders in the field and everyone still has rather fresh legs. As the gradients here aren't that bad, it might suit the Diesel engines in the field?
    #bmc Rohan Dennis may be looking for an opportunity to take back some lost pride, and the favorites won't have to follow him.
    #quickstep Bob Jungels seems to be in shape and has an advantage in the battle for pink. His team may also be happy with some days in pink and not obsessed with ambitions about taking the senza fine at the end.
    #sky Thomas need to take some time before week 3 and bring a team that can defend the jersey day in day out although it still comes at a cost. Master Froome would claim it on the first major climb, wouldn't he?
    #uae Rui Costa might try, he's not expected to figure in the final battle for pink,  but x-Lampre his team is Italian
    #sunweb Tom Dumoulin could try, but I don't think the team is ready to work like they did in La Vuelta 2015 and would prefer another rider in pink.
    #bmc TJvG happy to avoid being seen. Will let Nibali take pink especially if Rohan gets the stage.
     
  • ReplyReply

  • Joelsim

    • Road Captain
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 2360
    • Liked: 1275
      • Music To Your Ears
    • Awards: Fanboy of 2016New member of the year 2015Current leader, 2015-17 Emerging Riders CQ game
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #10 on: May 09, 2017, 11:41 »
    Could be fireworks today, especially if Mt Etna erupts.

    But the poorer GC contenders at ITTs have to make a difference on Dumoulin on all summit finishes or they'll come unstuck.

  • ReplyReply

  • Carlo Algatrensig

    • Domestique
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 649
    • Liked: 702
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #11 on: May 09, 2017, 12:00 »
    If we see Dombrowski get dropped on TV I hope the commentator says

    "and Dombrowski has been dropped, It will be a personal struggle for him now as it's Joe Versus the Volcano"
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #12 on: May 09, 2017, 12:07 »
    If we see Dombrowski get dropped on TV I hope the commentator says

    "and Dombrowski has been dropped, It will be a personal struggle for him now as it's Joe Versus the Volcano"

     :lol :lol
  • ReplyReply

  • killswitch

    • Road Captain
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 1913
    • Liked: 1035
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #13 on: May 09, 2017, 18:55 »
    Javier Moreno DQ'd from the race following his spat with Diego Rosa.

    https://twitter.com/VanDerKloor/status/861997746101813248

    Nibali's team wasn't that strong to begin with...

    edit: Rosa hit him first but he's not DQ'd or fined.  :S

    http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2106663#p2106663

    https://d.filebox.moe/ptmyvwop.mp4
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 19:17 by killswitch »
    Joelsim: The huge winner today - Landa.
    just some guy: Aye he marginal gained the flip out of it

    Mellow Velo

    • Road Captain
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 1965
    • Liked: 1709
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #14 on: May 09, 2017, 20:23 »
    Crash casualties of the day:-
    Broken collarbone for Katusha's Kochetkov. Out of the race.

    Ag2r's Alexandre Geniez was another abandon.

    Matteo Pelucchi crashed on the descent of the first climb and rode the final 80kms with a whole load of road rash.

    Rohan Dennis succumbed to his injuries on stage 3 and a lack of desire to spend three week's as TJ's water boy. :D
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 09, 2017, 21:59 by Mellow Velo »
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31241
    • Liked: 10819
    • Awards: Best Avatar of 2016Reigning Spring Classics Prediction ChampJSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #15 on: May 09, 2017, 21:22 »
    Casualties of the day:-
    Broken collarbone for Katusha's Kochetkov. Out of the race.

    FDJ's Alexandre Geniez was another abandon.

    Matteo Pelucchi crashed on the descent of the first climb and rode the final 80kms with a whole load of road rash.

    and the headwinds mean snooze fest until Sunday unless we get cross winds
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #16 on: May 09, 2017, 21:38 »
    Casualties of the day:-
    Broken collarbone for Katusha's Kochetkov. Out of the race.

    FDJ's Alexandre Geniez was another abandon.

    Matteo Pelucchi crashed on the descent of the first climb and rode the final 80kms with a whole load of road rash.

    More a casualty of Sunday, but you might want to include #bmc Rohan Dennis <abandon> on that list as well?
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #17 on: May 09, 2017, 21:52 »
    trabalho del contador! (book-keeping duties! :) )



    Comment: AWESOME STAGE by #uae Poulanc! And nothing else matters!
    Long, fast breakaway + significant headwind on the exposed slopes of Etna.
    None of the favorites really dared challenging Aeolus in his territory.


    The other 4 that deserves a mention:
    #cannondale Pieroooland for being optimistic
    #astana Jesper Hansen for really trying to achieve something
    #katusha Zakarin for being modestly opportunistic
    #sky Phil Deignan for bringing Landa back after the puncture
    probably something similar I didn't see for the remaining #katusha crew
    Zakarin got back after breaking his bike somehow

    Overall after stage 4:

    #quickstep Quickstep to stay in pink for as long as possible  :cool
    Jungels so far shining brightest but lots of others looking strong on the climb.
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6258
    • Liked: 3498
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #18 on: May 10, 2017, 01:31 »
    Javier Moreno DQ'd from the race following his spat with Diego Rosa.

    https://twitter.com/VanDerKloor/status/861997746101813248

    Nibali's team wasn't that strong to begin with...

    edit: Rosa hit him first but he's not DQ'd or fined.  :S

    http://forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?p=2106663#p2106663

    https://d.filebox.moe/ptmyvwop.mp4

    I am glad Moreno is out ... that stuff is just dangerous.

    Yes Diego Rosa appeared to elbow him - but stuff like that happens ... much more incidental in protecting position etc.  Not even close to the same as Moreno's reaction.
  • ReplyReply

  • stereojet

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 339
    • Liked: 298
    • I'm still learning the ropes
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #19 on: May 10, 2017, 11:21 »
    I thought Polanc had gone too hard to early on Etna but he dug in good and proper. Really enjoyed watching it.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9519
    • Liked: 9239
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 4 » Cefalù › Etna (181k)
    « Reply #20 on: May 10, 2017, 15:40 »
    via Ashley House



     :D
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

     



    Top
    Back to top