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ciranda

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stage 10: Foligno-Montefalco 39,8km (crono)
« on: May 14, 2017, 17:07 »
It's really hard. Maybe not really really really hard, more like really really hard. Or maybe just really (really) hard. Endless grinds uphill although with no GPMs or real hills. Average will be around 43(?)km with significant time differences. Two intermediary times the first after 9,8km and the second in the town of BASTARDO after 28,2km. Easy with wide roads until the first time check, then complicated terrain with narrower roads, then an easy part again, then harder again. Note: very little downhill.

Pre-weight loss Dumoulin would demolish a course like this and with the condition seen sunday he is favorite # 1. After him others who performed well on Blockhaus; Pinot, Mollema, Quintana, even Nibali. Zakarin will be motivated to try and take time back on some of these. Watch out for Amador, strong on Blockhaus and always very strong in the Giro. Thomas reacted well after his crash and will need a good performance to show he is not another Wiggins. Cataldo will do well. And Jungels ofc. Surprises from outside major guys for the overall: for sure Ludvigsson who will finish in the top four (I will bet against anyone on this). Kiriyenka, Quinziato, Boaro, Paterski, Barta for top ten/fifteen.




The entire stage takes place inside the province Umbria with the comune Foligno defined as a zone 1 seismic high risk area and the city Foligno situated on a plain where the rivers Topino and Menotre run together. The first city settlement here is very old with origins that date to the tenth century BC. It was romanized with the name Fulginium and was an important centre in imperial times in part because the via Flaminia passed by there. In medieval times Foligno was under the rule of the count of Spoleto until 1188 when it became part of the papal state  *va. For most of the following centuries the city was a part of the holy roman empire. Four wars with the powerful city Perugia took place in the 13th century, Foligno won the three first, Perugia the fourth and this last fact was significant because according to the historian Grundman the dominance of Perugia shaped the region as a primarily agricultural area. In the centuries that followed Foligno was part of complicated struggles between nobility and rulers from other city states before the city was reannexed to the Vatican state in 1439. In later times Foligno has been newsworthy mostly because of earthquakes. Since 1158 the city has hosted a traditional tournament that will maybe interest some. The Giostra della Quintana is a competition where horsemen with lances try to penetrate a ring suspended from a statue's hand. The name quintana is roman and has to do with some specific military training.
 

(maps copied from CN, history from wikipedia)
I will try to add some about Montefalco later


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  • « Last Edit: May 15, 2017, 07:10 by just some guy »

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    interactive profile via @raffilpt:

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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

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    that profile seems to be incorrect though, the middle climb does not exist. They are turning left in Celestrino not in Centrale Enel
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  • Caruut

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    That section between about 12km and 21km looks tricky, a real rhythm killer with all those changes of gradient.
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    ~pdf ORDINE DI PARTENZA

    some potential riders of interest + Top 20 in GC:

    ORA SQUADRA CONCORRENTE DISTACCO
    12.47'00"      #ccc      BIALOBLOCKI Marcin      
                      
    12.56'00"      #bora      BARTA Jan      
                      
    13.21'00"      #orica      TUFT Svein      
                      
    13.24'00"      #jumbo      CAMPENAERTS Victor      
    13.25'00"      #jumbo      KEIZER Martijn      
                      
    13.41'00"      #cannondale      KOREN Kristijan      
                      
    13.43'00"      #sky      KIRYIENKA Vasil      
                      
    13.50'00"      #orica      HEPBURN Michael      
                      
    14.01'00"      #jumbo      VAN EMDEN Jos      
                      
    14.18'00"      #jumbo      VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen      
                      
    14.43'00"      #fdj      ROY Jeremy      
                      
    14.45'00"      #bahrain      BOARO Manuele      
    14.46'00"      #sunweb      HAGA Chad      
    14.47'00"      #astana      SANCHEZ Luis Leon      
                      
    14.54'00"      #movistar      DE LA PARTE Victor      
                      
    15.10'00"      #fdj      LUDVIGSSON Tobias      
                      
    15.15'00"      #movistar      IZAGUIRRE Gorka      
                      
    15.19'00"      #jumbo      CLEMENT Stef      
                      
    15.22'00"      #bahrain      SIUTSOU Kanstantsin      
                      
    15.35'00"      #bmc      HERMANS Ben      +07’ 38”
    15.36'00"      #lotto      MONFORT Maxime      +07’ 13”
    15.37'00"      #uae      FARIA DA COSTA Rui Albert      +05’ 52”
    15.38'00"      #sky      THOMAS Geraint      +05’ 14”
    15.39'00"      #orica      YATES Adam      +04’ 49”
    15.42'00"      #uae      POLANC Jan      +04’ 46”
    15.45'00"      #astana      CATALDO Dario      +04’ 32”
    15.48'00"      #bmc      VAN GARDEREN Tejay      +03’ 56”
    15.51'00"      #quickstep      JUNGELS Bob      +03’ 30”
    15.54'00"      #astana      KANGERT Tanel      +03’ 15”
    15.57'00"      #jumbo      KRUIJSWIJK Steven      +03’ 06”
    16.00'00"      #movistar      AMADOR Andrey      +02’ 53”
    16.03'00"      #cannondale      FORMOLO Davide      +02’ 45”
    16.06'00"      #katusha      ZAKARIN Ilnur      +02’ 28”
    16.09'00"      #ag2r      POZZOVIVO Domenico      +01’ 28”
    16.12'00"      #bahrain      NIBALI Vincenzo      +01’ 10”
    16.15'00"      #trek      MOLLEMA Bauke      +0’ 51”
    16.18'00"      #sunweb      DUMOULIN Tom      +0’ 30”
    16.21'00"      #fdj      PINOT Thibaut      +0’ 28”
    16.24'00"      #movistar      QUINTANA Nairo   
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  • t-72

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    It's really hard. Maybe not really really really hard, more like really really hard. Or maybe just really (really) hard.
    I guess an ITT is hard to those that race hard even if it is flat, but just to compare with this year's world championship, harder TT courses are obviously all the rage this year.

    In comparison, the giro stage is a simple "really hard" as there aren't many meters really steep!
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  • hiero

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    I guess an ITT is hard to those that race hard even if it is flat, but just to compare with this year's world championship, harder TT courses are obviously all the rage this year.

    In comparison, the giro stage is a simple "really hard" as there aren't many meters really steep!

    Now, that's what you call a little kick at the end.

    I wonder how much time Dumoulin could hope to gain on NQ tomorrow.
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  • Ubi est ignis

    hiero

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    I missed the live chat!  :( 
    Dumoulin nailed it. He might actually have a chance at this. Long way to go. Long way.
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    Dumoulin nailed it indeed. Fastest in all parts of the time trial



    #ccc Tratnik got a 5 second penalty for drafting by the way, thereby dropping from 8th to 11th
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  • Joelsim

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    Like I said the climbers have now got to go for it.

    Dumo FTW IMO.
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  • t-72

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    Me just being a little nerdy about this. :D
    I compared the time trials from the vuelta 2015 (stage 17, Burgos ITT, 38,7 km long) and the one from today in the giro (stage 10, 39.8 km). The Burgos time trial was flatter than this one and there is of course also a difference between a stage 10 and a stage 17. However, the lenght was practically the same and the winner was also the same. I converted the time differences for the top 15 + one more movistar rider to time difference/kilometer.

    This is what it looks like:


    I can even give Kiryenka a 20 second rebate for his late fall, in that case it would look like this:

    This is what it looks like in that case:


    Let's assume that Kiryenka and Dumoulin define a "level ground" here since the difference between them is about contant at 2.4 seconds/km. The assumption is they both had an equally good day today as in 2015.

    The only rider in the selection that had clearly had a worse day today, in that case - would be Nairo Quintana. Today he lost about 2 times as much per kilometer as he did in 2015 (2,4 seconds/kilometer in 2015, today 4,34 seconds/kilometer).
     
    Also noted is that Geraint Thomas performed much better compared to Dumoulin today than he did in 2015. I didn't even remember he was racing the Vuelta in 2015 so his personal motivation/preparation might have had an impact on this?

    Luis Leon Sanchez, and Andrey Amador, also did better compared to Dumoulin than they did in 2015. I think their race situation was roughly comparable then and now.

    These numbers don't point at Dumoulin having such an outrageous day. His performance was as expected or, actually a little worse, compared to his competitors from 2015. I think these numbers indicate Quintana had a really bad day.

    It is not unusual that racers struggle after a rest day, and maybe this time it was Quintana. That would be my interpretation.

    These numbers also point to that a still-in-shape Dumoulin could gain something like 29,3 km * 4,34 secs/km, about 127 seconds or 2 min 7 secs on Quintana on the final time trial. However, if Quintana is in better shape (and Dumoulin a bit more broken) and a 2015-like relation is re-established, as little as  29,3 km * 2,40 secs/km = 70 seconds  or 1 minute 10 seconds if you prefer to say it that way.

    Then again, that means Nairo must pick up some at least 2:23 + 01:10 = 3:30 or maybe as much as 2:23 + 02:07 = 04:30 on the coming mountain stages to be in striking distance on the outskirts of Milano. That can happen or not, I can't see that this race is decided just yet. :slow
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    nerdy ideed, still interesting though :D.

    But I wouldn't really say Quintana hat a bad day. Maybe his performance was a couple of seconds worse than expected but you need into account that he is a type of rider who suffers more from the pretty strong wind today, and in Spain Movistar riders generally tend to do way better than elsewhere.

    Pinot had a really bad day though, this must have been his worst time trial in years.
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  • killswitch

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    Joelsim: The huge winner today - Landa.
    just some guy: Aye he marginal gained the flip out of it

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    It certainly makes things interesting though.

    Tactically - Movistar is a LOT stronger than Sunweb who's major dom Kelderman is out.  Adding to that the fact that Dumoulin will have pretty much no friends among the peleton given he is so far ahead of everyone - he needs to be super careful where he spends his efforts as they will all try very hard to work him over.

    Just have to look at the Vuelta when he was in red to see how its done.   He would be pretty scared I think.
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